2025 Freight Rate Survey PDF Free Download
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2025
Freight
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Survey
Introduction
The Owner-Operator Independent Drivers Association
Foundation, Inc. (OOFI) was established in 1991 as a
501(c)(3) non-profit. OOFI’s mission is to fight for the rights
of all truckers through research and education.
OOFI’s research includes economic, regulatory, and safety
issues that especially affect small business owner-operators
and professional truck drivers.
Since 1998, OOFI has conducted various surveys of the
Owner-Operator Independent Drivers Association’s (OOIDA,
or Association) membership, not only to understand the
profile and demographics of the Association’s members,
but also to document the holistic changes that are
occurring within the trucking industry, including freight
rates.
OOIDA has approximately 150,000 members located in all
fifty states that collectively own and operate more than
240,000 individual heavy-duty trucks.
OOIDA members are professional truckers who truly
represent all aspects of trucking. These are the men and
women who move our nation’s economy.
Information concerning the current state of the freight
market is vital in order to help professional truck drivers
and small business owners-operators run a successful
business.
The freight rate data not only provides important
information for OOIDA, but it also helps give a clearer and
more time sensitive image of the present-day freight
market in order to equip OOIDA members with the best
information to make good business decisions.
OOFI conducted its first freight rate survey in 2010 to better
understand the market. This is the twelfth edition of the
Freight Rate Survey (FRS),or “Survey,” which is conducted
annually.
4
Looking Back at 2024
The trucking industry is the lifeblood of
the nation. Not only does it employ
1.546 million men and women, but
trucking is also responsible for delivering
64%of all freight worth $13.688 trillion
while collecting $301.5 billion in gross
revenue up and through the third quarter
of 2024.
Trucking is vital to the overall economic
health of the United States and when key
economic performance indicators are
doing well, such as manufacturing,
wholesaling, and housing, trucking will
also do well. The opposite is also true.
Thus, the freight market is always in flux.
It’s either in a downcycle, upcycle, or
somewhere in-between.
The 2024 freight market was marked by
bottoming rates and a rebalancing of
capacity, as the year started in a
downcycle and ended by shifting into the
early stages of the next upcycle.
•Truck orders canceled
•Market balances itself
•Prices bottom out
•Capacity balanced
•Demand increases
•Prices rise
•Demand down
•Overcapacity
•Prices start sliding
•Carrier margins up
•Driver wages up
•Capacity grows
Under
Supply Late
Cycle
Over
Supply
Early
Cycle
Note: This figure is adapted from image by C.H. Robinson and DAT 6
In an effort to combat record high inflation and an
overheated labor market, the Federal Reserve raised
the federal funds rate for 18 straight months
between March 2022 and August 2023. This
effectively poured a bucket of cold water on
manufacturing activity and indirectly impacted the
housing market.
For example, while the federal funds rate isn’t
directly tied to mortgage rates, it does influence
expectations. Thus, when the Federal Reserve
started to tighten monetary policy in 2022, it
increased short-term borrowing costs, which
prompted bond markets to raise their yields in order
to compensate for the erosion of purchasing power
and to remain competitive with shorter-term bonds
and other instruments.
In response, the 10-year Treasury yield began to
soar, causing mortgage rates to rise as well, which in
turn made housing less affordable. The freight
market soon shifted into a downcycle starting in the
second and third quarters of 2022 as housing starts
fell off a cliff at the onset of the interest hikes and
manufacturing entered into a recession a few
months later.
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
4.0%
4.5%
5.0%
800
900
1,000
1,100
1,200
1,300
1,400
1,500
1,600
1,700
1,800
Qtr1
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Qtr3
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
Percent
Housing Units Started (In thousands)
Privately Owned Housing Starts and 10-Year Treasury Yield
Housing Units Started 10-Year Treasury Yield
Source: Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) | https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1DaKu | Monthly
Fed starts raising federal
funds interest rate in
March 2022. Housing
starts fall dramatically.
7
The market downturn continued through 2023 and into
2024 even as fuel and truck prices came down significantly
and the number of carriers and drivers slowly decreased.
Demand and rates as measured by Truckstop and FTR’s
Total Market Demand Index (MDI), which gauges demand
in the trucking market by calculating the ratio of load
postings to truck postings on the Truckstop platform, and
their Total Spot Rates, continued to fall until late 2023. At
which point rates bounced along the bottom until finally
turning positive year-over-year in late 2024.
Although manufacturing activity remained subpar
throughout 2024, salaries and wages as measured by the
U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis did steadily outpace
inflation which helped to spur strong consumer spending.
In addition, wholesalers and retailers were finally able to
make progress 2024 in their battle to right-size their
inventory levels, which helped mitigate the fallout in
freight demand due to the inventory accelerator principle.
The inventory accelerator principle states that when a
business receives a sustained change in demand, either up
or down, it’s upstream vendors will actually change their
own orders so that they can maintain a higher or lower
level of inventory to support their customers’ demand.
This “accelerates” economic growth when demand is high
and economic contraction when the demand is low, which
is where the freight market has been since Q3 2022.
Source: Truckstop + FTR | https://freight.ftrintel.com/spotmarketinsights | Monthly
-40.0%
-20.0%
0.0%
20.0%
40.0%
60.0%
80.0%
$1.50
$1.70
$1.90
$2.10
$2.30
$2.50
$2.70
$2.90
$3.10
$3.30
Dec
Feb
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Oct
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Feb
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Aug
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Dec
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Dec
Feb
Apr
Jun
Aug
Oct
Dec
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
Year-over-year % Change
Truckstop and FTR’s Total Spot Rate
Y/Y % Chg Total Rates 3-Year Average
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Ultimately, some manufacturing sectors, such as
nonmetallic mineral products, paper, and wood, and
some wholesaling sectors, including farm products,
machinery, and household goods, began to turn the
corner in various stages of 2024. This recovery helped
to spur new orders, buoy backlogs, and prop up demand
during the downturn.
This recovery was further captured by the Logistics
Manager Index (LMI), which measures supply chain
conditions in eight key logistics metrics including
transportation capacity and transportation prices. The
LMI is a diffusion index, meaning that any number below
50 indicates contraction, while any number above 50
indicates expansion. When capacity outpaces prices, it
signals bad news for freight rates. However, when prices
outperform capacity, it indicates just the opposite.
While prices began outpacing capacity in June 2024, the
market has yet to enter into the next upcycle, as the
spread between spot rates and their 3-year moving
average has not turned positive.
However, now that 2024 is in the books, it appears that
2025 could be a promising year for trucking depending
on how and if monetary policy and tariffs come into
play.
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100
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Mar
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Nov
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2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
LMI Transportation Capacity and Transportation Prices
Transportation Capacity Transportation Prices Breakeven Forecast Capacity Forecast Prices
Source: LMI | https://www.the-lmi.com/ | Monthly
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Survey Results
OOFI emailed a comprehensive survey to
95,212 members who allow for email
communication on December 6, 2024. In
response, we received 1,023 total responses,
which equated to a99% confidence level
with a 4% margin of error. This means the
survey results reflect the attitudes of our
intended population.
Respondents were mostly owner-operators
(85%), with small segments of company
drivers (8%) and fleet owners (6%). The
number of fleet owners dropped
significantly, from 15%in 2023 to 6% in 2024
perhaps due to the ongoing market
downturn and elevated costs as described in
the previous section.
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
OWN
AUTHORITY
LEASED-ON COMPANY
DRIVER
FLEE T OWNER RETIRED OT HER
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Rate trends were mixed overall. For example,
while the average rate increased $0.13 per mile
to $2.22 in 2024, those under their own
authority and those leased-on to a carrier
actually experienced a decrease in average pay
per mile.
Nevertheless, owner-operators under their
own authority continued to earn the highest
average rate per mile at $2.45, which was a
$0.05 decline from the previous year and a
$0.72 decline from the high in 2022.
Company drivers received the lowest
compensation at $0.70 per mile, but
experienced a 9.4% increase in pay compared
to 2023.
When examining equipment type, members
pulling dry van and reefers saw significant rate
increases, as well as those operating locally
(less than 150 miles) and those operating in
long-haul (501+ miles) segments of the
industry.
$1.92
$1.85 $1.84
$2.23
$2.56
$2.09
$2.22
$1.75
$2.00
$2.25
$2.50
$2.75
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
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A majority of respondents (80%) indicated that
they knew their cost of operations, a 2%
decrease from 2023.
The average operating cost per mile dropped
4%, or $0.08,to $2.00 in 2024. This represents
a16% drop from the high in 2022, when
operating costs were $2.38 per mile.
Owner-operators who knew their cost of
operations were better equipped to choose
profitable freight, and on average, earned
$0.26 more per mile than those owner-
operators who did not.
When attempting to mitigate costs, 52%of
respondents stated that they are able to
include a fuel surcharge into their rate. The
average fuel surcharge is $0.47 per mile, which
is $0.04 less than last year and $0.36 less than
the high of 2022, when the average fuel
surcharge was $0.83.
$1.77
$2.09
$2.38
$2.08
$2.00
$1.50
$1.60
$1.70
$1.80
$1.90
$2.00
$2.10
$2.20
$2.30
$2.40
$2.50
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
13
Though some respondents reported hauling
fewer loads, the number of total miles excluding
fleet owners increased more than 23,500 miles
to 108,412. Practically all of this increase was
due to a jump in loaded miles, which rose 34%
year-over-year compared to just a 0.4% increase
in deadhead miles.
Virtually every segment of the industry
experienced an increase in loaded miles
according to the FRS results. The lone exception
was for fleet owners and flatbed haulers.
Miles typically increase during freight
downcycles as owner-operators tend to operate
more miles in order to make up for less
profitable loads.
The opposite is true for freight upcycles as
demonstrated in the chart. This supports Dr.
Michael Belzer’s research which shows that
drivers will actually drive fewer miles when their
compensation rises above a certain level.
70,000
75,000
80,000
85,000
90,000
95,000
100,000
105,000
110,000
115,000
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
TOTAL MILES EXCL FLEET OWNERS
14
Conclusions
A majority of members expressed a positive
outlook for 2025 (40%) primarily due to the
new incoming administration in the White
House. Members believe that President
Trump will help reduce regulation, cut costs,
and boost the economy overall. Other
positive views voiced optimism in gradually
increasing freight demand.
Negative views (21%) centered their
concerns on freight fraud, inflation, and
tariffs. These respondents expressed worry
regarding high operating costs and low rates.
Those who believe the market will remain
the same (39.6%) shared apprehensions
concerning the economy. They believe the
economy hasn’t changed much and believe
there is still too much capacity in the market.
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
Better Worse About the same
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51%of members plan to make changes in their
business plan for 2025.
Challenges continue to include considerations of
retiring, leasing trucks to other carriers, selling trucks,
changing careers, or shutting down due to low rates
and high costs.
Some owner-operators however plan to add or change
equipment, operate regionally, network more for direct
contracts, or work less with brokers.
Leased-on owner-operators seemed to be more mixed,
with several planning on retiring or working toward
retirement, while others are planning to take that next
step and obtain their own authority.
While some respondents expressed frustration and
discontent with the current state of the industry, and
have doubts that things will change, many others
sounded hopeful that the market will turn positive in
2025.
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Various economic data from Truckstop and FTR’s Total
MDI and Spot Rates, ISM’s Manufacturing PMI, Cass,
and LMI, suggest that 2025 should be a good year for
trucking.
How good, however, is still left to be seen. The big
elephant in the room is tariffs. Depending on how and
if tariffs are implemented, trucking could range from a
very strong year to a very mediocre one.
Other important factors to consider as we look to the
future are inflation, the Federal Reserve’s monetary
policy, and mortgage rates as these three things,
combined with tariffs, will have a large impact on
manufacturing and housing activity. Which in turn, will
impact the freight market.
If tariffs become a nonissue, we expect the owner-
operator to see between a 5 to 10% increase in rates
year-over-year.
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RESEARCH SAFETY EDUCATION
OOIDA Foundation
OOIDA
Owner-Operator Independent Drivers Association Foundation, Inc.
A subsidiary of Owner-Operator Independent Drivers Association, Inc.
1 NW OOIDA Drive | PO Box 1000 | Grain Valley, MO 64029 | Tel: (816) 229-5791
E-mail: FoundationDept@ooida.com | Website: www.ooida.com/foundation
