2025 GLOBAL END-OF-YEAR FORECAST PDF Free Download
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Source” WPP media, World Bank1
2025 GLOBAL END-OF-YEAR FORECAST
DECEMBER 2025
2
The growth ambition of our clients is the driving force behind everything
we do at WPP. This Year Next Year is a vital demonstration of our
commitment to equip them with a clear perspective on the evolving
advertising landscape. Our brilliant teams, working as one connected
WPP, translate these insights into innovative, transformative strategies
that help our clients navigate change and unlock sustainable growth. We
are proud to deliver this foundational work, reflecting our collective
dedication to the continued success of our clients.
DECEMBER 2025 • THIS YEAR NEXT YEAR
I END-OF-YEAR FORECAST I INTRODUCTION
CINDY ROSE
Chief Executive Officer
WPP
In a world where media is everywhere and in everything,
competitive advantage comes from having the best possible
understanding of the constantly evolving advertising
ecosystem. Our This Year Next Year forecast serves as an
exclusive blueprint for our clients as we work together to
design and build the brand ecosystems of the future. This
December’s update is a particularly important piece of work
as we enter a new advertising era, shaped by AI. It has been
crafted to help leaders navigate the crucial, complex
transition ahead of us and capitalize on the opportunities that
will emerge as the future unfolds.
BRIAN LESSER
Chief Executive Officer
WPP Media
04
Introduction
06
Economic Backdrop
12
Methodology
13
Media Forecast
32
Category Trends
61
Regional Forecasts
65
Conclusion
66
Global Summary Data Table
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3
14 Intelligence
19 Content
23 Commerce
28 Location
33 CPG
37 Retailers
40 Media & Entertainment
43 Technology
46 Financial Services
49 Auto
52 Pharma
55 Luxury
58 B2B
INTRODUCTION
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4
Each year, we return to the same fundamental
questions about the trajectory of advertising
revenue, assessing familiar data sources and
economic indicators. Yet each iteration demands
we see the data anew, incorporating shifts in
technology, policy, and consumer behavior that
transform our understanding of what drives growth.
This process — of building upon established methods while embracing necessary
disruption — is not unlike the challenge faced by the advertising industry itself as it
navigates an AI-driven transformation of media, commerce, and consumer interaction.
For this edition of This Year Next Year, we have chosen pop art as our visual motif.
The choice is deliberate.
Pop art emerged in the 1950s and 1960s during a period of extraordinary economic
expansion driven by technological innovation and mass production. Artists like Andy
Warhol, Roy Lichtenstein, and Pauline Boty1 appropriated commercial imagery
— soup cans, comic strips, celebrities — and through repetition, recontextualization,
and mechanical reproduction, transformed them into high art. They collapsed the
distinction between commercial and cultural production, making art from the very
advertising and consumer goods that defined postwar prosperity.
This act of creative appropriation mirrors the economic process described by this
year’s Nobel Prize laureates in economics: Joel Mokyr, Philippe Aghion, and Peter
Howitt. The three were recognized for explaining innovation-driven economic
growth. Their work demonstrates that sustained economic prosperity does not
arise from accumulation alone, but from the continuous cycle of creative destruction,
in which new technologies, products, and methods replace old ones in an endless
process of reinvention.
For advertising, this resonates profoundly in 2025. The industry is experiencing its own
moment of creative destruction as AI transforms content creation, media planning,
measurement, and consumer interaction. Tools that once required specialized
expertise are being democratized. Creative production that once took weeks can
happen in minutes. Search behaviors that defined a generation of advertising are being
displaced by conversational AI and answer engines. New players — from retail media
networks to AI platforms — are capturing share from established media companies.
1: Adam Smith, originator of This Year Next Year,
wrote a biography of Pauline Boty.
5
And yet, like other pop artists who worked within the commercial system while transforming it, successful
adaptation requires working with the structures and systems that exist while building the ones that will
replace them. Brands cannot abandon proven channels while experimental ones mature. Media companies
cannot ignore their current revenue while investing in future formats. The challenge is to manage both
continuity and disruption simultaneously.
This forecast projects global advertising revenue will grow 8.8% (7.7% including U.S. political advertising)
in 2025 to $1.14 trillion, with 7.1% growth in 2026 or 7.9% including U.S. political advertising. These figures
reflect more optimistic expectations from our June forecast, driven by the diminished impacts from trade-
policy volatility and the complex second-order effects of rapid technological change.
Within these aggregate figures, we see the forces of creative destruction at work: streaming video
cannibalizing linear television, retail media capturing budget from legacy digital channels, AI-powered
answer engines beginning to reshape search behavior, and creator-driven content continuing its
displacement of professionally produced media. Each of these shifts resets the scoreboard, ranking losers
whose models are disrupted and winners who capture the value being created. At least until the next
disruption.
We hope that, just like the pop artists of the 1950s and
1960s, we are at the cusp of economic and technological
progress that will usher in new products and improved
leisure time (the promise of domestic robots like 1X’s Neo
to do household chores is electrifying). Perhaps the AI
era will give way to a period of radical simplicity, just
as Minimalism followed pop art. But optimism has to
be coupled with deliberate and conscious action on the
part of the entire industry, and the transition is unlikely
to be entirely painless.
The Nobel laureates' insights remind us that growth
cannot be taken for granted. It requires not just
technological capability, but institutional structures
that enable change, cultures that embrace rather
than resist innovation, and sufficient competition
to prevent incumbents from blocking progress.
As we enter 2026, the advertising industry faces
tests on all three fronts: regulatory uncertainty
that could fragment or consolidate markets,
technological shifts that demand rapid adaptation,
and competitive dynamics that will determine
whether established platforms maintain dominance
or new entrants capture share.
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6
The global economy has had something of a reprieve this year. Although the
U.S. administration unveiled punishing tariffs on almost all global markets in
April, the effective tariff rates for many nations, after a flurry of negotiations,
deals, dust-ups, and détentes, have been less catastrophic. The IMF now
predicts global nominal GDP growth of 7.4% in 2025 and 6.8% in 2026.
This is a deceleration from the 9.1% in 2024, but a positive movement
versus predictions by many from earlier in the year. Inflation estimates
remain elevated, at 4.2% globally in 2025, however the IMF predicts that
figure will continue its downward trajectory, decelerating to 3.7% in 2026.
Looking at how our own growth expectations have climbed substantially
for this year and next, there are two drivers: the diminished impacts of
tariffs, and the AI investment boom.
Ad revenue growth
in 2025 is now
forecast to be
8.8%
an upgrade from the
7.7% we predicted in
December of 2024
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%
Creative Destruction in the Age of AI
Beyond the broader economic impacts of AI, there are clear opportunities for upside potential
in the advertising industry, primarily through two mechanisms:
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Efficiency gains and cost-
structure transformation
AI tools could materially reduce production
costs for advertising creative as well as campaign
planning, optimization, and measurement.
Creative asset performance, however, is likely
only to increase in importance, requiring
transformed rather than diminished creative
functions. Companies deploying AI extensively
across their operations may realize cost savings in
certain areas (including headcount in specific
functions), which could enable higher
advertising-to-revenue ratios. This cost-structure
advantage may prove especially pronounced for
digital-native advertisers and platforms born in
the AI era.
7
New ad sellers and ad buyers
entering the market
Perhaps even more significant for advertising
growth is AI’s capacity to generate entirely new
categories of advertisers (or new AI-endemic
advertisers disrupting mature categories). We
are already observing advertising activity from
AI model providers and enterprise software
solutions to consumer health startups and
everything in between. And AI is likely to mint
new types of companies selling advertising as
well. As infrastructure investments loom and
platforms pursue monetization, advertising will
likely feature prominently in their revenue
models, as it has done for previous waves of
technology platforms.
Looking at how our own growth
expectations have climbed
substantially for this year and next,
there are two important drivers to
note: the diminished impacts of
tariffs, and the AI investment boom:
Tariff Impacts:
Several factors explain the diminished impact
of U.S. tariffs: front-loading of imports ahead of
tariff implementation, inventory-management
strategies, corporate absorption of costs within
margins, and the depreciation of the U.S. dollar,
which has partially offset the effects of tariffs on
international exporters.
AI Investment Boom
Alongside a reduced downside, the global
economy (driven primarily by the U.S. economy)
has experienced a significant upside in AI
investment, both in the form of infrastructure
build-out and software usage. In fact, an analysis
by Harvard Economist Jason Furman posits that
without AI investment, U.S. real GDP growth in
the first half of this year would have been just
0.1%. The benefits are likely to continue accruing.
An IMF analysis suggests that under modest
assumptions, AI-driven productivity
improvements could add approximately 0.4
percentage points to global output in the near
term, with potential for substantially larger gains
if adoption and productivity improvements prove
more significant than baseline expectations.
01 02
The top
10%
8
of households now
account for nearly
50%
of total U.S. consumer
spending, according
to Moody’s
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Capital expenditure rising rapidly
Uneven Distribution of Growth
This growth will not be felt evenly across the advertising ecosystem. Digital and AI-led companies continue
to capture an increasing share of advertising revenue at the expense of legacy media businesses. The top 25
sellers of advertising are on pace to account for nearly three-fourths of total advertising revenue in 2025, and
that concentration could increase further among the players we identify in our ranking of companies
competing for the Future of Advertising Intelligence (pg. 16).
Just four companies are on pace to spend more than $400
billion on capital expenditures this year, primarily related
to AI. Their contribution to U.S. GDP growth has masked a
divergent reality for other sectors of the economy which
are not growing as quickly, which could pose a downside
risk for broad-based advertising growth.
Source: Company Filings, WPP Media • 2025 CAPEX estimates based on company guidance
Nor is it clear that the rising AI tide will lift all boats within the broader
economy. Historically, technological advancement has tended to
disproportionately benefit owners of the capital and infrastructure
used to create goods and services rather than the labor employed in
the process. AI may accelerate this dynamic. Income disparities in
major markets like the U.S. — where the top 10% of households now
account for nearly 50% of total consumer spending, according to
Moody’s — create concentration risks for consumer-facing brands
and could constrain aggregate demand growth. If purchasing power
concentrates narrowly, the breadth of consumer demand that
supports diverse advertising categories may narrow as well.
9
Advertising as universal subsidy: We already
observe communications, finance, retail,
transport, media, and now AI companies
using advertising to subsidize free or
reduced-cost services to consumers. This
model could expand further, with advertising
becoming the primary mechanism by which
economic activity is financed.
Time as an asset: In a world where material
needs are met through productivity gains
but employment is reduced, human attention
and time become the primary economic
assets individuals control. This could amplify
advertising’s role, but also necessitate new
models for value exchange between
platforms and audiences.
Purpose and meaning: Economic structures
where fewer people derive identity and
purpose from employment may see shifts
in consumption patterns. There is some
evidence that Generation Z is well on its
way to that ethos. In a study of U.S. Gen Z
participants, NYU Stern professor Suzy Welch
found that only 2% share employer priorities
like achievement, learning, and hard work.
That they prioritize self-care, authentic self-
expression, and helping people more than
work for work's sake will likely have
implications for which product categories
and messages resonate.
01
In a post-labor or reduced-labor scenario, several
possible dynamics could emerge:
Post-Labor Economy Considerations
Further out on the horizon lies the possibility of significant
labor disruption. While the five-year forecast for this
report does not assume wholesale job displacement, the
question of what happens when advertising must function
in an economy with structurally higher unemployment or
underemployment warrants consideration. Even if one of
the potential outcomes is the era of so-called abundance
championed by AI/tech accelerationists and AI
companies as a byproduct of AI-driven productivity gains.
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02
03
These considerations
should not be
interpreted as
dystopian
inevitabilities.
Rather, they
represent scenarios
that warrant
proactive policy
design — including
discussions around
universal basic
income, social
services, and
educational systems
focused on uniquely
human skills —
to ensure
technological
progress generates
broadly shared
prosperity.
66%
of digital shoppers
in Brazil use social
commerce with
embedded BNPL
options
10
The rapid legalization and normalization of sports
betting, crypto, and prediction markets, amplified
by sophisticated digital platforms and targeted
advertising, has created a new category of consumer
financial exposure. While this generates advertising
revenue in the near term, the concentration of
gambling activity among lower-income demographics
and the addictive nature of the products raise concerns
about consumer welfare and spending capacity,
particularly in an economic downturn.
The risk scenario:
If economic conditions deteriorate sharply
— whether from escalated trade conflicts,
asset price corrections (an AI crash), or
AI-driven labor displacement — consumers
carrying BNPL obligations and gambling
losses would face compounded financial
stress, potentially triggering defaults that
cascade through the financial system while
simultaneously constraining discretionary
consumption, including for advertised
goods and services.
Proportion of U.K. users using
BNPL services at least once in 2024
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Buy Now, Pay Later
(BNPL) Proliferation
The U.S. Consumer Financial
Protection Bureau's January
2025 warning regarding 2022
BNPL data revealed that
"more than 60 percent of
users had simultaneous loans,
borrowers held higher
balances on other credit lines,
and most loans went to
consumers with subprime or
lower credit scores." While
BNPL provides transaction
flexibility for consumers
and conversion benefits
for retailers, the prevalence
among subprime borrowers
Structural Vulnerabilities:
Debt-Driven Consumption
In the nearer term, there are
two trends in consumer finance
that merit attention for their
potential to amplify economic
stress should growth disappoint
or unemployment rise sharply.
and the tendency toward multiple simultaneous
obligations create vulnerability. Similar patterns
are observable globally, with nearly every market
in our forecast noting increased adoption across
LATAM, Europe, and Asia-Pacific. In the U.K.,
adoption still skews younger, with consumers aged
24-34 more likely to use BNPL, according to UK
Finance, but adoption is likely to expand.
Source: U.K. Finance
Sports Betting and
Gambling Expansion
Source: WMS
Trends 2025 (Brazil)
11
Implications for Advertising Growth
For 2025, our global advertising growth forecast has improved to 8.8%
(excluding U.S. political advertising) signaling less immediate economic
damage from tariffs, continued robust performance from AI-sector advertisers
and AI-enabled advertising efficiency, resilient consumer spending in major
markets, particularly among higher-income households, and platform and
media owner adaptability in the face of disruption and uncertainty.
For 2026, we project advertising growth of 7.1% (ex U.S. political), reflecting
the anticipated materialization of delayed tariff effects for some sectors,
normalization following front-loading behavior, and continued headwinds
as a result of ongoing policy uncertainty, particularly in the U.S.
That said, these risks should be contextualized. Regulatory frameworks
are evolving to address BNPL lending standards. Sports betting regulation
varies significantly by market, with some jurisdictions implementing
robust consumer protections. And historical evidence suggests that while
financial stress creates challenges, advertising often proves resilient as
brands maintain communication with consumers and seek to gain share
during competitors' pullback. Greater prudence in the financial system,
the potential for AI to contribute to scientific breakthroughs, and the
competitiveness of our global economy all provide cautious optimism
that these challenges can be met and overcome.
6.3%
Five-year compound
annual growth
rate (CAGR) for
advertising globally
The medium-term outlook (2027-2030)
incorporates both the upside potential
from AI-driven productivity gains and new
advertiser categories, and the downside
risks from fragmentation, fiscal constraints,
and labor market disruption. Our base case
scenario assumes policymakers in major
markets implement measures to address
inequality and support displaced workers,
preventing the most severe downside
scenarios while capturing meaningful portions
of AI's productivity dividend, leading to a
five-year compound annual growth rate
(CAGR) of 6.3% for advertising globally.
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Methodology
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WPP Media’s This Year Next Year (TYNY) analysis is a demanding, year-long
endeavor, with our forecasting models continuously monitored and updated. To
accurately size the advertising industry, we focus on media owner revenue rather
than advertiser spend. While the world’s top 350 advertisers represent less than
a quarter of total industry revenue, a concentrated group of the top 25 media
sellers accounts for over 70%. This focus on sellers offers a more reliable measure
than the diffuse advertiser base.
Year-round we track earnings results, management commentary, and the strategic
moves of the world's largest sellers of advertising, often making pro forma
adjustments to historical data to accurately reflect mergers and acquisitions.
Our data includes adjustments to exclude (to the best of our ability) revenue
from ad technology (e.g., DSPs) and commission fees on commerce purchases
(e.g., TikTok Shop). We combine this data with detailed channel-level advertising
revenue data from more than 60 markets around the world — from the largest,
like China and the U.S., to smaller markets like the Czech Republic, Kenya,
and Ecuador. This includes meticulous data collection and, at times, significant
revisions to historical data to ensure the highest accuracy in our global figures.
In addition to media revenue data, we also assess economic factors such as
expected GDP growth, market-level unemployment, and consumer price inflation
(carefully considering nuances like hyper-inflationary markets), technological
advancements (including the rapid scaling of AI-enabled advertising), and
consensus revenue estimates from financial analysts to build the full TYNY forecast
picture. This comprehensive approach is underpinned by analytical frameworks,
such as our Future of Advertising Intelligence Framework (page 15), to understand
diverse market drivers.
The work draws on the expertise of scores of people across
WPP Media, who are constantly re-evaluating estimates as new
and better data becomes available. Without this dedicated
global effort, we could not produce such a detailed and
authoritative piece of work, culminating in resources like the
Global Summary Data Table (page 67) which seek to provide our
clients and the industry at large with the most novel, accurate,
and forward-looking data possible.
12
While the world’s top 350 advertisers represent
less than a quarter of total industry revenue, a
concentrated group of the top 25 media sellers
accounts for over 70%.
Media
Forecast
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Our media forecast is presented under four main segments that speak to the
motivations of clients choosing how to allocate their media budgets. The largest
segment is Content-driven advertising, which will account for 58.0% of total ad
revenue in 2025, but fall to 55.1% of revenue in 2030. This segment contains
channel forecasts for TV, audio, newspapers, magazines, social, and gaming. The
next largest component (21.4% in 2025) is Intelligence — currently primarily search
ad revenue, but expanding to incorporate ad revenue from AI platforms. We'll
cover this segment first in the pages below given its current state of evolution and
potential to determine the winners of the next era of advertising. Our Commerce-
driven ad revenue segment has been expanded to include Travel and Financial
Services media networks in addition to Retail Media. This segment will capture
15.6% of total ad revenue in 2025, climbing to 17.2% in 2030. Finally, Location-
based advertising is set to maintain its share of advertising at around 5%,
representing static and digital OOH in addition to cinema. The data discussed on
the following pages is all exclusive of U.S. political advertising revenue, unless
otherwise noted.
CONTENT
COMMERCE
LOCATION
INTELLIGENCE
14
INTELLIGENCE
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In last December’s report, we introduced the term “Intelligence” for the new category of
ad revenue that search would fall into. Today, search is still the only quantified component
of Intelligence revenue as Perplexity’s ad revenue is insignificant and OpenAI has yet to launch
an advertising offering. In June’s report, we introduced the latest results from our Advertising
in 2030 survey, where we asked more than 60 industry experts for their predictions about the
future of technology, media, commerce, and data. We are now bringing these threads
together to introduce a new Future of Advertising Intelligence Framework, a way to assess
what capabilities will be required to win in 2026 and beyond from both an advertiser and,
most importantly in terms of this forecast, an ad seller point of view.
Personalized
using both
quantity and
quality of data
insights
The proactive element marks the biggest change from a previously largely reactive search
channel where information was served up in response to specific queries and within the
confines of a search engine. In this new world, one could imagine a company like Google
or Amazon applying what they know about a logged in and consented user (say their dog’s
predilection for squeaky toys, or their increasing use of the English to Japanese translation
tool) to suggest video content, purchases, and even travel bookings. To be clear, even
though the raw materials may exist today that would enable this kind of interaction, there
are no companies operationalizing it at scale today to our knowledge. Hence there is a
future-facing element to our framework and its scoring system that assesses the capabilities
and assets as they exist today and gives some credit as to how they could be applied over
the coming months and years.
Also, it should be noted that this framework is specifically designed to assess advertising
intelligence, not artificial intelligence more broadly. We therefore reward companies with
foundational models as we believe that the ability to create, train, and continuously improve
AI models will enable intelligent responses to user queries. But it is not the only route to
advertising intelligence strength. A company that pursues partnerships for access to models
(or use of open-source models) can still score well based on their infrastructure build-out
and their prediction algorithms specifically.
We will be releasing the full framework, definitions, and scoring rubric in January 2026 at
CES, but have included an overview here because of its importance, we believe, in
understanding the likely evolution of search, media, and commerce.
Pervasive
engaging across
multiple surfaces,
contexts, and
need states
Proactive
offering suggestions
that are helpful
and relevant
to consumers
There are three key assumptions we believe will define the future of advertising
intelligence based on our research and the points of commonality among our
surveyed experts, namely that the future of advertising will be:
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Each of the elements listed here is defined
within the framework with clear scoring
criteria and what elements are included
or excluded in the assessment with a
maximum possible score for each company of
180 points.
Let’s take Prediction and Recommendation
Algorithms as an example component. Its
importance in enabling the proactive shift of
recommendations versus answers to queries
and in providing truly relevant suggestions
means it is the only element receiving double
weighting in our framework.
Included in this element are content
recommendation systems (like TikTok’s For
You page), product recommendation and
discovery, search ranking, ad targeting,
personalization engines, real-time
optimization (including A/B testing and
multi-arm bandits), cold-start problem
solving (recommendations for new users),
and explainability of and user control over
recommendations. Excluded are the data
used to power recommendations (covered in
Data Assets), the foundation models (covered
in Model Development), manual curation or
editorial selection, and simple rules-based
systems without machine learning.
DATA ASSETS AI/TECH
CAPABILITY DISTRIBUTION TRANSACTION
CAPABILITY
CONTENT/
MEDIA
User Behavioral
Data
Model
Development Use Base Commerce
Infrastructure
Content Scale and
Context
Business /
Commercial Data Infrastructure Hardware /
Devices
Advertising
Systems
Advertising
Innovation in
Content
Real World Data
Prediction /
Recommendation
Algorithms (x2)
Ecosystem
Reach
Advertiser
Network
Content
Ecosystem
Lock-In
Identity Data Trust
40 pts 40 pts 40 pts 30 pts 30 pts
Future of Advertising Intelligence Framework
The scoring criteria are as follows:
Effectiveness
How well do recommendations
match user interests/intent?
Sophistication
Simple collaborative filtering vs.
deep learning vs. multi-objective optimization
Real-time adaptation
How quickly do they learn and adjust?
Scale and diversity
Single domain (video) vs. multi-domain
(products, content, ads, services)
Transparency and user agency
Explainability of recommendations, user
controls (why this recommendation, don't
show me this, preference settings), algorithmic
transparency
Business impact
Measurable improvement in engagement,
conversion, satisfaction
Prediction and
Recommendation Algorithms
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The ranks make clear
that there are several
viable routes to the top
(e.g., model owner and
model renter), but just
one clear current
leader: Alphabet.
The output of the framework
is a detailed analysis of each
company’s capabilities, with
scores for each category
and sub-component.
See the example
radar charts below.
Source: WPP Media, Alphabet, OpenAI, Anthropic
Companies that scored well on Prediction/
Recommendation Algorithms were Alphabet, Meta and
ByteDance, followed by Amazon and Tencent. Microsoft,
Apple, Alibaba and X/xAI made up the middle of the pack,
and Samsung, Xiaomi and OpenAI rounded out the group.
A couple of notes at this point. We started with an
assessment of 12 companies, all of which sell advertising
today with the exception of OpenAI, which we have
included due to its rapid release of consumer and
enterprise tools and our belief that advertising will be part
of its monetization strategy in the near future. We plan to
assess more companies as we evolve the framework and
continue updating scores to account for future product and
research announcements. The second point to note is how
we scored the companies. In this initial assessment we
employed the deep research and thinking capabilities of
three separate AI models - Anthropic’s Claude 4.5 Sonnet,
Google’s Gemini 3 Pro, and OpenAI’s ChatGPT 5 (reasoning)
- to score each of the 12 companies with augmentation by
human analysts and a cross-calibration process to re-assess
scores that differed by more than four points across the
models. We used the mean score for each capability
category across the three models to generate a final score.
Strategic Competitive Analysis of Companies
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We believe, as written in the economic
section above, that advertising will be a
key component of the economic value
equation between producers, distributors,
media companies, and consumers. There
are, however, many considerations for
how that would be put into practice in
ways that preserve trust, promote the
ongoing creation of quality content, and
are net positive for competition and
innovation. Companies might keep some
domains ad-free, such as those related to
medicine, health, and politics, or
consumers might use a mix of ad-free and
ad-supported services depending on the
use case and the associated costs.
Monetization through an affiliate model
(whereby an AI company would take a
percentage of the purchase price for
goods and services sold on its platform),
has been discussed by Sam Altman in the
past, although Eric Seufert, on his
MobileDevMo blog, makes the argument
that personalized advertising is more likely
than affiliate marketing to become the
predominant revenue accelerator for AI
companies, like OpenAI, augmenting
subscriptions.
This framework is intended to equip the
industry with a common language and
scaffold upon which to design and build
future marketing strategies. For the time
being, however, we will continue to
report on search as an ad revenue
category, building assumptions for
intelligence ad revenue into the next
iteration of our forecast. In 2025, we
estimate search advertising will reach
$244.9 billion, up 10.2% over 2024 and
representing 21.4% of total ad revenue.
Growth will remain at 10.3% in 2026,
before decelerating through 2030.
over 2024 and
representing
21.4% of total ad
revenue. Growth
will remain at
10.2%
In 2025, we
estimate search
advertising will
reach $244.9
billion, up
in 2026, before
decelerating
through 2030.
10.3%
18
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It is important to note that these figures represent a narrow definition of search.
That is, ad revenue from search engines including Baidu, Google, Bing, Naver, and
Seznam. It does not include search (sponsored listings) on Amazon, or on TikTok,
for example. What would the figure for expanded search look like? An analysis of
advertising activity across vertical search sites like Yelp, social sites like Reddit,
YouTube, Pinterest, and TikTok, and commerce sites like Amazon suggests that the
figure would be closer to $400 billion in 2026, with pureplay search accounting for
61% of that figure (including 2% of AI Overview ad revenue and other generative
engine search advertising). Commerce search would account for 34% of revenue by
our estimates, with higher shares of search-based revenue on commerce sites in the
U.S., but lower shares in Europe. Social search would represent 4% of revenue with
use of search strategies varying by site. The rest of the digital universe (including
vertical sites for job listings, real estate, and others) would make up about 2% of
the expanded search ad revenue total.
The evolution of search exemplifies creative destruction at work. What began as a
discrete activity confined to dedicated search engines has diffused across the digital
landscape with consumers now initiating product discovery on Amazon, seeking
recommendations on TikTok and Reddit, querying AI chatbots for synthesized answers,
and navigating commerce through conversational interfaces. This fragmentation
simultaneously destroys the attribution models that defined search advertising's first
decades and creates new value through contextually relevant, intent-rich interactions.
The platforms capturing
this dispersed search
behavior — commerce
sites, social networks, and
AI assistants — are
fundamentally reordering
the media owner hierarchy.
Yet the pendulum may
swing back: As AI-
enhanced search within
platforms like Google's AI
Mode evolves to handle
increasingly complex
queries and transactions, it
threatens to recentralize
discovery and cannibalize
revenue from today's
fragmented commerce
advertising landscape.
Expanded Search
2026 Ad Revenue
Pureplay
58.1%
Commerce
33.5%
Social
3.9%
Vertical
& Other
2.1%
AI
2.4%
19
CONTENT
Global content-driven advertising is projected to reach $663.5 billion in 2025, representing 7.9% year-
over-year growth, before advancing to $698.8 billion in 2026 (+5.3%). While these figures suggest
modest expansion, content's share of total advertising continues to erode - declining from 58.5%
in 2024 to 58.0% in 2025 and 57.1% in 2026 - as commerce-driven channels capture larger portions of
advertiser budgets. Growth is concentrated in streaming formats and social platforms, while
traditional linear channels face persistent structural declines.
Streaming's share of total TV revenue climbs
from 26.2% in 2025 to 29.6% in 2026, though
again, there is variability across markets.
In Mexico, CTV and addressable TV now
approach 10% of total TV investment. In
Australia, 85% of BVOD viewing occurs on the
big screen, supported by 79% of homes now
having internet-capable TVs (up from 59% in
2020) per the Voz Total TV Viewing Report.
Sports rights remain the battleground for
TV's future. India's IPL cricket rights auction
for the 2028 cycle could price out legacy
broadcasters entirely in favor of digital
platforms with deeper capital resources. In
the U.S., the shift of NBA rights from Warner
Bros. Discovery to NBCU and Amazon is
impacting 2025 ad growth for all three.
Three critical questions remain for TV:
whether streaming can sustain growth as
subscription fatigue intensifies, whether
sports rights economics remain viable for
traditional broadcasters (or shift permanently
to tech platforms operating under different
monetization models), and whether TV ad
sellers can successfully attract revenue from
the small and mid-size advertisers that have
driven growth for Google and Meta.
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Television
Television advertising demonstrates remarkable
stability in absolute terms, with total TV
reaching $167.4 billion in 2025 (+0.6%) and
$170.8 billion in 2026 (+2.1%). However, this
surface-level resilience obscures a fundamental
shift in TV's market position. The channel's
share of global ad revenue declines from 15.8%
in 2024 to 14.6% in 2025 and further to 13.9%
in 2026, as advertiser budgets migrate toward
performance-driven digital channels.
Linear TV continues its managed decline, falling
3.8% to $123.5 billion in 2025 and a further 2.6%
to $120.3 billion in 2026. The trajectory remains
consistent with multi-year trends, though
market-level variations reveal uneven pacing.
Markets with strong sports rights portfolios -
Australia's AFL, NRL, and cricket franchises, or
Mexico's 2026 World Cup exclusivity through
Televisa - show greater resilience. France
presents a notable outlier, with linear viewing
more stable than European peers despite
individual time spent declining 8.6% through
August 2025, according to Médiamétrie. In
Japan, linear TV still represents 90% of total TV
ad revenue, though reach erosion amongst Gen
Z and Millennials is driving double-digit growth
in streaming TV advertising.
Streaming TV sustains double-digit growth
globally as well, advancing 15.2% to $43.9
billion in 2025 and 15.1% to $50.5 billion in
2026. The leveling out of growth rates suggests
maturation in developed markets, with growth
coming from new market ad-tier expansion
such as with Amazon Prime Video launching its
ad-supported offering in India during 2025, and
Australia awaiting full Disney+ ad availability
along with the introduction of Nine's Stan Sport
advertising.
$413
Social and digital platforms
represent the primary
growth engine for content-
driven advertising, reaching
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Content-Driven Ad Revenue Share by Channel
20
Social and Other Digital
Social and digital platforms represent the primary growth
engine for content-driven advertising, reaching $413.0
billion in 2025 (+12.8%) before advancing to $445.4 billion
in 2026 (+7.8%). The channel's share of total ad revenue
expands from 34.8% in 2024 to 36.1% in 2025 and 36.4% in
2026. Growth in 2025 has surprised, with our forecast
upgraded from 7.3% in June’s report. Even the 12.8% figure
appears to understate growth given Meta’s reported 22%
constant currency growth through the first nine months of
this year. The lower figure then denotes considerable share
shift to Meta, and also TikTok. However, the notable
deceleration from 12.8% growth to 7.8% anticipates the
effects of reduced time spent on social platforms,
upcoming age-related bans, and potentially new
competitive dynamics as young people increasingly engage
with chatbots such as Gemini, ChatGPT, Claude, and Grok.
One of the drivers of growth in 2025 has been the
expansion of social commerce videos and commerce ads on
social. As the U.S. administration rolled out tariffs and rolled
back the de minimis exemption which allowed for
inexpensive shipping of goods under $800 into the States,
retailers like Temu and Shein expanded into international
markets such as Brazil, Europe and Southeast Asia, using
advertising to drive app downloads and purchases. Live
shopping and social commerce content have also expanded
beyond China, though penetration rates remain modest in
markets like the U.S.
Consumption pattern data across
social platforms more broadly
introduces a complicating factor.
Several markets noted decreases in
time spent with social media, even
while others commented on the
importance of influencers and social
video within investment plans.
Despite declining time spent,
advertising investment continues
growing, suggesting improved
monetization efficiency or, more
skeptically, advertiser lack of
superior alternatives rather than
genuine audience expansion.
Source:
WPP Media
bn
in 2025.
21
Audio
Total audio advertising shows near-flat performance at $27.5 billion in 2025 (-0.1%) and $27.6 billion
in 2026 (+0.3%). The channel's share of global ad revenue declines from 2.6% in 2024 to 2.4% in 2025 and
2.3% in 2026. Aggregate figures obscure significant format shifts, with terrestrial radio's structural decline
continuing while streaming audio and podcasting demonstrate growth insufficient to offset legacy losses.
Terrestrial radio falls 2.4% to $19.9 billion in 2025 and a further 2.7% to $19.3 billion in 2026, reflecting
trends consistent with other legacy media. Streaming audio advances 6.3% to $7.7 billion in 2025,
accelerating slightly to 7.9% growth in 2026 at $8.3 billion. Market maturity varies considerably.
We noted increasing advertiser interest in podcasts in France in 2025, but measurement and ad
verification infrastructure remain underdeveloped, limiting monetization potential. In Thailand,
YouGov reported that 54% of consumers listen to podcasts at least one hour weekly, among the highest
percentages globally outside Middle East and Africa.
Despite enthusiasm around podcasting, monetization lags consumption. The fundamental constraints are
measurement fragmentation - no unified audience measurement across markets limits planning confidence
- and scale. In India, podcasting remains "too small” to differentiate while most markets position podcast
investment as supporting existing radio campaigns rather than standalone channel spend. France reports
podcast and digital audio are primarily used for special operations and branded content, particularly for
complex product explanation in categories like energy, health, insurance, and financial services, reflecting
a B2B and specialized positioning rather than mass-market application.
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Newspaper
Newspaper advertising will reach $31.4 billion
in 2025 (-0.3%), showing remarkable near-term
stabilization before projected decline of 3.2%
to $30.4 billion in 2026. The channel's share
of global ad revenue falls from 3.0% in 2024
to 2.7% in 2025 and 2.5% in 2026. Print
newspapers decline 5.1% to $16.6 billion in
2025, then accelerate to an 8.1% decline in 2026
at $15.3 billion. Digital newspapers advance 5.8%
to $14.8 billion in 2025, but growth moderates
sharply to 2.2% in 2026 at $15.1 billion.
The 2025 stabilization likely reflects geopolitical
news cycles such as U.S. tariffs and international
conflicts driving short-term consumption rather
than structural reversal. And the deceleration of
digital newspaper growth from 5.8% to 2.2%
raises questions about sustainable monetization
models, especially with the rise of LLM and
chatbot usage. The trajectory suggests digital
subscriptions and advertising cannot scale
sufficiently before print revenue collapse
accelerates, unless there is a concentrated effort
among advertisers and agencies to develop new
models incorporating licensing, data, or content
production.
22
Magazines
Magazine advertising faces the steepest declines in the
content sector, falling 7.2% to $15.6 billion in 2025 and
then a further -10.7% in 2026 at $14.0 billion. The channel's
share of global ad revenue drops from 1.6% in 2024 to
1.4% in 2025 and 1.1% in 2026. Luxury clients maintain
magazine presence across multiple markets for brand
prestige, story-telling and aspirational imagery, but the
sector represents a small share of total ad revenue. Other
key advertiser categories include travel and real estate.
Gaming
Gaming represents the fastest-growing content advertising channel at $8.5 billion in 2025
(+29.5%) and $10.7 billion in 2026 (+25.6%), though absolute revenue remains just 0.7% of total
ad revenue in 2025, advancing to 0.9% in 2026. Market readiness varies dramatically. Thailand's
gaming market is projected to grow rapidly through 2030, with thousands of active advertisers.
Japan reports mobile gaming as the largest segment driving user acquisition spend, with in-
game advertising growing through rewarded video ads, playable ads, and brand sponsorships,
though advertisers remain mostly endemic to the sector.
Conversely, Mexico reports that ad spend going into gaming platforms is still incredibly nascent
with gaming not among the categories showing significant growth amongst large advertisers.
France similarly notes advertisers are still mostly endemic to the sector, with non-endemic and
traditional advertisers in experimental phases. The path to scale requires standardized
measurement and verification, non-endemic advertiser confidence, brand safety frameworks,
and demonstrated ROI beyond user acquisition. The 25%+ growth rates reflect an extremely
low base rather than mainstream channel adoption, leaving gaming's trajectory uncertain.
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Magazines are transitioning from publications
to media brands with diversified revenue
streams including video content production
for digital platforms, exclusive events such as
fashion shows and product launches, and
digital editions. South Korea reports
magazines developing omnichannel packages
with CTV exposure in addition to print
executions. However, these initiatives appear
to represent survival strategy rather than
revival — events and experiential represent
revenue diversification away from a declining
advertising model. The trajectory points
toward further consolidation and title closures
as advertising revenue becomes insufficient
to support operations across all publishers.
$8.5
in 2025.
$10.7in 2026.
Gaming represents
the fastest-growing
content advertising
channel:
bn
bn
23
COMMERCE
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Commerce will account for 15.6% of total global ad revenue in 2025, reaching $178.2 billion and
surpassing total TV ad revenue for the first time. This milestone reflects the maturation of commerce
media from experimental channel to essential component of the media mix for many advertisers.
Growth will run at 11.6% in 2025 before decelerating to high single digits through 2030, when the
segment is projected to reach $268.3 billion (17.2% of total ad revenue).
The commerce channel encompasses three
distinct segments: retail media (including
all formats from in-store digital and audio to
on-site and off-site digital inventory), travel
services media (primarily Booking.com,
Expedia, Tripadvisor, Trip.com, and Rakuten),
and financial services media networks
(including those from banks like JPMorgan
Chase, BNPL providers like Klarna, and digital
payment companies like AliPay, PayPal, and
Mercado Pago). All share a common value
proposition: connecting media exposure to
proof of purchase through first-party
transaction data.
Commerce will account for
15.6% of total global ad
revenue in 2025, reaching
$178.2 billion and surpassing
total TV ad revenue for the
first time.
Commerce Ad Revenue by Market (USD Millions)
Source: WPP Media
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Growth Drivers
Retail media constitutes the vast majority of commerce
revenue and remains the primary growth engine. At
$174.2 billion in 2025, the segment is projected to
grow 11.3% to $190.5 billion in 2026. To fuel future
growth, retailers are increasingly looking beyond their
website inventory and typical endemic clients (those
that sell products on the retailer’s site). The evolution
toward off-site retail media (where retailer first-party
data is used for targeting across the open web) has
expanded addressable inventory and created new
revenue streams for established players. Partnerships
with media companies have expanded the pool of
advertisers beyond CPG. However, changing industry
dynamics point to headwinds on the horizon.
The proliferation of retail media networks over the
past several years now faces consolidation pressures.
Advertisers are actively reducing their partner portfolios
to improve operational efficiency and concentrate spend
with networks offering sophisticated measurement and
attribution capabilities. Managing dozens of retail media
relationships with inconsistent APIs, reporting standards,
and minimum spend requirements has become
untenable for some brands. This rationalization will
benefit the largest, most technologically advanced
networks while creating existential pressure for smaller
players without differentiated inventory or data assets.
In response, some are creating partnerships with their
peers, notably a merger in France combining the retail
networks of Valiuz (the Mulliez ecosystem alliance:
Auchan, Decathlon, etc.) and Infinity Advertising.
The group claims the combined entity will hold a
27% market share in the food segment.
Incrementality measurement remains the sector’s
most significant credibility challenge. While commerce
media promises closed-loop attribution, questions
persist about whether advertising on these platforms
drives new demand or simply captures existing
purchase intent. Advertisers with sophisticated
measurement capabilities are beginning to demand
incrementality studies rather than last-click attribution,
potentially revealing lower effectiveness than current
models suggest. The industry's ability to demonstrate
true incremental sales - not just attributed sales - could
determine long-term advertiser confidence and budget
allocation.
Addition of Travel and
Finance Services Media
Networks
The proliferation of commerce media
has extended well beyond traditional
retail. Travel media demonstrates
stronger momentum, having grown
22.9% in 2025 to reach $3.3 billion.
Growth is projected at 9.2% in 2026
to $3.6 billion. Major travel platforms
have successfully leveraged their
position as transaction intermediaries
to build sophisticated advertising
businesses, with sponsored listings
and display inventory across their
properties.
Financial services media networks
represent the smallest subsector but
show the highest growth trajectory.
Projected to reach $699.0 million in
2025, the segment is forecast to
grow 25.0% in 2026 to $873.8 million.
Banks, fintech platforms, and
payment processors are still
establishing product-market fit and
operational models, but the
underlying customer transaction data
and established user bases provide
attractive monetization potential.
Tempering the outlook for this
segment: offerings remain unproven
at scale, measurement standards are
inconsistent across players, and
compliance burdens related to
consumer financial data could
potentially constrain advertising
product development.
25
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Travel & Financial Services Ad
Revenue
Geographic Trends
China dominates retail media, accounting for 43.8% of the global total
in 2025. This outsized share reflects both the maturity of China's digital
commerce infrastructure and the integration of shopping and media
within super-app ecosystems. However, this market's growth trajectory
may decouple from global trends due to distinct consumer behaviors,
regulatory frameworks, and limited international expansion by Chinese
platforms. The market's size should be contextualized against its relative
isolation from global retail media dynamics. Live-commerce formats drive
a significantly higher share of revenue in China compared to Western
markets, where adoption remains limited despite multiple attempts by
platforms and retailers.
Global Chinese players Shein and Temu face mounting headwinds that
will likely limit their retail media strategies outside China. Regulatory
changes, including the U.S. de minimis customs rule change in 2025,
create precedent for other markets to limit their competitive advantages.
If additional markets institute similar customs reforms, ad revenue growth
for these platforms outside China could remain constrained.
Travel Financial Services
NA
29.5%
APAC
31.2%
LATAM
18.5%
EU
20.9%
NA
50.8%
APAC
30.7%
LATAM
2.5%
EU
11.6%
MEA
4.3%
MEA
0%
Source: WPP Media
26
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Outlook
AI platform disruption presents the most significant structural uncertainty for commerce media over the forecast
period. Two distinct strategic approaches are emerging among major players, with profound implications for
the sector's trajectory.
Amazon has invested heavily in its proprietary AI shopping assistant Rufus and has actively prevented AI
companies from facilitating purchases on its platform, including litigation against Perplexity. This closed-
ecosystem approach protects Amazon's retail media revenue and maintains control over the customer
experience and share of search start, but risks user migration if consumers prefer AI-mediated shopping
experiences available through competitor partnerships. Amazon's scale and technical resources make this
defensible in the near term, but only if Rufus (or Alexa) achieves adoption and utility comparable to third-party
AI shopping tools.
By contrast, multiple retailers including Walmart, Shopify, Target, and Etsy have announced partnerships with
OpenAI and Perplexity to make their inventory accessible via ChatGPT and other AI interfaces. This approach
provides distribution and positions retailers within emerging AI-mediated shopping behaviors but cedes
substantial control over the shopping experience and customer relationship. Critically, it potentially limits
media monetization opportunities: If consumers interact primarily with the AI interface rather than the retailer's
owned properties, traditional on-site retail media formats become less viable. For retailers without resources to
build proprietary AI products, partnerships may be the only viable option, but the economic terms and
advertising opportunities within these arrangements remain unclear.
The U.S. represents one-third of retail ad revenue globally and leads both
travel and financial services media revenue. U.S. retail media benefits from
search-type formats and sponsored listings penetrating deeper than in
European markets, reflecting Amazon's definitional role in shaping advertiser
and consumer expectations. The market's maturity has accelerated both
consolidation among networks and sophistication of measurement demands
from advertisers. Major retailers including Walmart, Target, and Kroger have
invested heavily in retail media infrastructure, looking to create viable
competitive alternatives to Amazon.
The U.K., Japan, Germany, India, and South Korea round out the top retail
media markets. South Korea now sits as the seventh largest market globally
following upgraded estimates, reflecting the integration of commerce and
content on platforms like Naver and Coupang. These markets show varying
degrees of retail media maturity, with format preferences and adoption curves
shaped by local e-commerce penetration, digital payment infrastructure, and
competitive dynamics between domestic and global platforms.
In Latin America, Mercado Libre dominates regional commerce and is
developing its media network capabilities, though measurement and
attribution infrastructure lag North American standards. The platform's super-
app integration across e-commerce, payments (Mercado Pago), and logistics
provides a foundation for commerce media expansion, but economic volatility
and digital advertising market immaturity in many Latin American markets
might constrain near-term growth rates.
There are several sizeable players in the Middle East and Africa including
Takealot, Noon and Jumia, but limited digital payment penetration and
infrastructure challenges are likely to constrain near-term revenue potential.
The region remains poised for future growth dependent on digital
infrastructure development.
27
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Measurement and attribution become substantially more complex in AI-mediated
environments. If an AI agent conducts product research across multiple retailers, evaluates
options based on opaque criteria, and executes a purchase, traditional attribution models
and industry standards are not yet equipped to handle this. The commerce media sector's
core value proposition - connecting media to proof of purchase - remains valid, but
the technical implementation and advertiser confidence in results may be undermined.
How do systems tell the good bots from the bad? The industry will need to develop new
measurement frameworks for agentic shopping, likely requiring collaboration among
retailers, AI platforms, and third-party measurement providers.
There remains significant uncertainty regarding the time horizon for these potential
disruptions. Consumer adoption of AI shopping tools for actual purchases versus
research remains nascent. Retailer and advertiser responses are still forming, and
technical integration challenges may slow deployment. The high single-digit growth
projection for retail media through 2030 assumes gradual AI adoption and successful
format evolution by major players. Accelerated AI disruption — particularly if a dominant
AI shopping interface emerges quickly - could result in downgraded expectations. Slower
adoption, or consumer resistance to AI-mediated purchasing for product categories
requiring evaluation and trust, would support current forecasts or enable upward
revisions.
The implications vary by format and player size. On-site retail media (sponsored product
listings, display ads on retailer properties) faces the most direct risk if AI-mediated shopping
scales rapidly, as reduced site traffic and session depth would decrease inventory and
engagement. Off-site retail media (retailer data used for targeting across the open web)
may prove more resilient initially, as it relies on data assets rather than owned-property
traffic. However, if AI platforms become the primary commerce interface, even off-site
programs face questions about data refresh rates, signal quality, and competitive
positioning against AI platforms' own targeting capabilities.
The largest players, namely Amazon and Alibaba, possess resources to invest in proprietary
AI and can potentially maintain integrated commerce and media experiences. Mid-tier
retailers face strategic pressure to partner or risk disintermediation, but partnership terms
may not support robust media monetization. Smaller retailers and niche platforms lack
leverage in AI partnerships and resources for proprietary development, creating potential
for further market consolidation.
The largest players — Amazon and Alibaba — possess resources
to invest in proprietary AI and can potentially maintain
integrated commerce and media experiences.
28
Location-based advertising, comprising out-of-home (OOH) and cinema, is
expected to grow 6.3% in 2025 to reach $56.9 billion globally. This category
continues to demonstrate resilience relative to other traditional
media, with OOH maintaining its share of total advertising at 4.8% in 2025 and
projected to remain stable at between 4.6% - 4.8% through 2030. The channel's
enduring strength stems from its unique positioning: It cannot be easily
substituted by scaled digital platforms, it reaches consumers during moments
of high attention outside the home, and it is experiencing rapid digital
transformation that is unlocking programmatic and data-driven capabilities.
LOCATION
Out-of-Home
Total OOH advertising is forecast to reach $54.6 billion in 2025, up 6.3%
year-over-year, with growth increasingly bifurcated between traditional
and digital formats. Traditional (static) OOH will grow 4.5% to $32.5 billion
in 2025, maintaining positive momentum despite shifting advertiser
preferences toward more flexible, measurable, and dynamic advertising
solutions. Traditional OOH's share of the total market will continue to
decline as digital penetration accelerates.
Digital out-of-home (DOOH) is the fastest-growing segment within Location
advertising, expected to increase 9.0% to $22.2 billion in 2025. By 2030,
DOOH will represent 43.9% of total OOH revenue at $31.4 billion, effectively
reaching parity with traditional formats. The category is being propelled by
three converging forces: the expansion of programmatic buying capabilities,
the deployment of premium inventory in high-traffic environments, and the
integration of sophisticated data and measurement tools.
Programmatic DOOH is scaling rapidly across markets, with adoption
particularly advanced in certain European countries where programmatic
represents a significantly higher share of digital revenue than the global
average. Major OOH operators are investing heavily in connecting their
inventory to demand-side platforms, with some networks now accessible
through dozens of DSPs across multiple continents. The promise of
real-time bidding, dynamic creative optimization, and
audience-based targeting is likely attractive to advertisers
used to digital ad formats, but performance on par with the
impact of traditional OOH will be as important to large brands. 43.9%
of total OOH revenue
will be DOOH by 2030,
nearing parity with
traditional formats
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The quality and scarcity of premium inventory is also becoming
increasingly important as advertisers seek environments that
deliver both reach and engagement. OOH operators are
strategically expanding their presence in high-dwell-time, high-
traffic locations - particularly transportation hubs, major transit
systems, and landmark urban sites. This focus on premium
placements is supporting pricing power and advertiser demand
even as overall inventory expands.
29
Transit and Travel: Universal Growth Driver
The increase in travel and transit advertising revenue growth appears universal
across major OOH operators, supporting the forecast for sustained Location
category momentum. This trend is particularly pronounced in two segments:
airports and public transportation.
Market-Level Dynamics
The five largest OOH markets — China, the United States, Japan, Brazil, and Germany — will account
for 63.2% of global OOH revenue in 2026, but growth rates and digital penetration vary significantly
by geography. China remains the largest OOH market globally ($19.7 billion in 2026), with continued
investment in transit infrastructure supporting demand even as growth rates moderate from pandemic
recovery peaks. The United States, as the second-largest market ($9.8 billion in 2026), is seeing
healthy growth driven by digital billboard expansion, airport advertising strength, and accelerating
programmatic adoption.
Japan represents the third-largest OOH market ($2.9 billion in 2026), with a strong transit network
providing a stable foundation for advertising growth and increasing digital penetration from a
historically lower base. Brazil ($2.4 billion in 2026) offers high growth potential supported by
urbanization trends and infrastructure development, though economic volatility creates some
uncertainty. Germany ($2.0 billion in 2026), as a mature European market, demonstrates the
advanced state of programmatic adoption and maintains a strong presence across both transit
and billboard formats.
Transit advertising — encompassing metros,
buses, trains, and trams — is showing broad-
based momentum across geographies. Major
operators reported organic growth in transport
Airport advertising is experiencing exceptional
performance as global air traffic recovers and
expands. Major airport operators reported
double-digit revenue growth in recent quarters,
with digital formats showing particularly strong
gains. Air passenger volumes are forecast to
grow 5.8% in 2025 according to IATA, with
long-term projections showing traffic increasing
from 9.5 billion passengers in 2024 to 22.2
billion by 2050. This structural tailwind benefits
operators with significant airport portfolios, as
airports provide a premium environment with
high dwell times, affluent demographics, and
advertiser demand across categories including
luxury, travel, finance, and automotive.
segments, with particularly strong performance in North America, Europe, and other developed
markets. Urbanization, investment in public transportation infrastructure, and the return of
commuters to offices are supporting transit advertising recovery, particularly in major metropolitan
areas where premium inventory commands strong pricing.
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30
5.5%
Cinema advertising
growth
$2.2
Total cinema
advertising spend
bn
Box office attendance remains below pre-pandemic levels in most markets, as streaming
services and shortened theatrical windows have fundamentally altered consumer behavior
around film consumption. The value proposition of cinema advertising — reaching
audiences during big tentpole releases — is increasingly concentrated around a handful
of franchise films, creating inventory inconsistency that could complicate planning for
advertisers seeking sustained reach.
Cinema
Cinema advertising is expected to grow 5.5% to $2.2 billion in
2025, representing just 0.2% of total advertising — a share that is
projected to remain unchanged through 2030 at $2.6 billion. The
category faces persistent structural headwinds that constrain its
growth potential relative to other Location-based formats.
External factors are adding further uncertainty. Proposed
tariffs on films made outside certain countries could disrupt
the global film business by increasing costs, disrupting
international collaborations, and potentially triggering
retaliatory measures from other markets. Some countries
have already announced reductions in film imports in
response to trade tensions. Since Hollywood and other major
film producers rely heavily on international box office revenue
— especially for major franchises — these policy shifts could
lead to decreased profitability, fewer theatrical releases, and
reduced advertising inventory and audience reach.
Despite these challenges, cinema retains niche advantages
as a premium, high-attention, brand-safe environment
for certain advertiser categories including luxury and
entertainment. It continues to serve as a complementary
OOH format in some markets, particularly for campaigns
seeking to reach specific demographic groups during major
releases. However, its structural limitations make it unlikely
to return to its pre-streaming share of total advertising.
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Recovery of Cinema Ad Revenue in Select Markets
Source: WPP Media Note: Japan, Mexico, and India ad revenue has recovered,
while MENA, U.S., and South Korea are still half historical highs.
31
Outlook
Several challenges warrant close attention as Location
advertising evolves over the coming years. Economic
uncertainty and weakening consumer financial health could
dampen advertiser spending, particularly in cyclical categories
that have historically been strong supporters of OOH such as
automotive, travel, and retail. The on-again, off-again nature
of trade tensions and tariff policies creates planning uncertainty
that may lead advertisers to seek greater flexibility in their
OOH commitments or shift spend toward channels perceived
as more nimble.
Regulatory risks around digital services taxes, data privacy,
and content regulation could impact programmatic DOOH
scaling, particularly as these advertising formats become
more sophisticated in their use of audience data and targeting
capabilities. Different markets are pursuing divergent
regulatory approaches, which may create compliance
complexity for operators and advertisers seeking to deploy
consistent strategies across geographies.
Competition from scaled digital platforms continues to intensify
as Google, Meta, Amazon, and other technology companies
expand their advertising offerings and seek to capture more of
advertisers' overall budgets. OOH operators will likely need to
demonstrate clear incrementality and return on investment to
maintain and grow their share of marketing spend. This requires
ongoing investment in measurement capabilities, attribution
studies, and integration with advertisers' broader marketing
technology stacks to prove that OOH delivers outcomes that
digital channels alone cannot replicate.
By 2030, the OOH market is expected to exceed $71.5
billion globally, with DOOH representing nearly half of
the total. The operators best positioned to capture this
growth are those investing in premium digital inventory,
securing long-term transit and airport contracts, building
programmatic infrastructure, and developing data and
measurement capabilities that align OOH with advertiser
expectations for accountability and performance.
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32
Category
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Trends
In addition to tracking the financials of the world's leading sellers of advertising, we
also maintain composites of the largest global advertisers across nine categories.
The insights on the following pages draw from public financial records as well as
proprietary data and sector expertise across WPP Media.
33
FG
CPG
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6.6% Median Ad
Intensity
2025E
34
The CPG advertising landscape is set to enter a more normalized phase of growth
in 2026 following years of pandemic-driven volatility and inflation-driven margin
pressure. For CPG companies excluding alcoholic beverages, the 2024 median
advertising as a percentage of revenue stood at 7.8% (or 6.8% excluding L'Oréal,
Coty and Haleon, which report combined advertising and promotional expenses).
We expect the 2025 advertising ratio to be slightly lower as companies adapt to
tariffs, input cost pressures, and some consumer weakness in key markets. Across
our composite of CPG companies, we anticipate advertising expenses will decline
slightly in 2025 (-2.4%) before returning to modest growth in 2026 (+3.2%). This
trajectory reflects companies' dual imperatives: maintaining brand equity
investments while recovering margins compressed by multi-year inflation.
This overall moderation masks significant variation by category and strategic positioning. Beauty
companies maintain higher advertising ratios given category dynamics and the importance of brand
building in prestige segments. Meanwhile, food and household care companies increasingly emphasize
ROI optimization, with many citing improved marketing effectiveness through AI-powered tools, more
sophisticated targeting, and enhanced digital capabilities that deliver better returns per dollar spent.
The shift toward digital continues to accelerate with some companies reporting that digital channels now
represent 60-70% of above-the-line spending, enabling more precise targeting, faster testing and learning
cycles, and better attribution of marketing impact. However recent developments from just the last six
months mean that advertisers are now reassessing strategies for the year to come. First, the increase of
AI-mediated search and the ability to purchase within chatbot environments puts a strong focus on
holistic owned, earned, paid, and shared content aimed at influencing consumers and bots alike. Second,
the How Humans Decide research from WPP Media and Oxford Saïd Business School has shown that not
all channels have equal importance across all categories, with differences even between hair care and skin
care when it comes to a touchpoint’s ability to influence a purchase.
CPG Advertising as a Percentage of Revenue
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Source: How Humans Decide, WPP Media & Oxford Business School
Figure shows the probability that a touchpoint will influence the
likelihood of buying a brand
Category Trends
One of the most defining characteristics of the CPG
landscape over the last year has been the pronounced
bifurcation of consumer demand - simultaneous
growth in premium offerings and intensifying value-
seeking behavior, with the middle increasingly
pressured. This pattern reflects broader income
inequality trends and varying impacts of inflation
across consumer segments. Unilever explicitly noted
in a recent earnings call that in the U.S., “households
that own stocks” exhibit different consumption
patterns than those that don't. Across both premium
and value products, brand strength is a key driver of
market share and defense against white-labeled store
brands. Research from How Humans Decide, as well
as data from Criteo (shared with WPP Media), point to
consumers considering just two brands on average at
the point of purchase, though for health and beauty
brands, Criteo found that consumers in Germany,
France, the U.K. and U.S. viewed an average of four
brands across multiple retailers, pointing to an
expanded consideration set for some segments.
E-commerce and DTC sales have
established themselves firmly as a core
growth driver across the CPG category,
including within alcoholic beverages
companies. E-commerce penetration is
approaching 30% for L’Oréal and Unilever
Beauty & Wellbeing. This is also the trend
across alcoholic beverages companies
with ABInbev noting that e-commerce
now represents close to 17% of the
business, similar to Constellation brands
(16%), and Remy Cointreau (17%, up
from 4% pre-pandemic). Within
Asian markets, quick commerce
was highlighted as a fast-growing
component of e-commerce sales.
CPG companies looking to capture
sales from an increasingly cost-conscious
consumer in a fragmented retail
environment then need to do two things
well: build mental availability through
consistent, quality touchpoints that prime
consumers for choice, then strive for
seamless execution at the point of
purchase (either physical or digital) to
convert that priming into sales.
AS Omega 0 AS Omega 0 AS Omega 0
ALL CATS SKIN CARE HAIR CARE
Ads on apps
20% 23%
Celebrity endorsement
7% 13% 7%
Cinema ads (incl. foyer posters)
4% 8% 3%
Online ads
17% 29% 12%
Online video ads
10% 21% 7%
Outdoor ads
12% 16% 11%
Radio ads & sponsorship
6% 11% 4%
Social media ads
11% 27% 9%
TV Sponsorship
7% 16% 4%
Sports/event sponsorships
7% 14% 4%
Streaming
6% 13% 4%
TV ads
22% 39% 35%
Influencers
8% 25% 8%
Print ads or editorial
15% 40% 20%
Search: paid & organic
39% 56% 24%
Retail media
33% 38% 14%
Reviews
36% 67% 34%
Sales staff
33% 53% 30%
WOM recommendation
48% 68% 40%
Social media brand mentions
11% 8%
Brand owned (website & social)
32% 49% 18%
Discount
60% 71% 74%
Email CRM
17% 22% 9%
Brand events & experiences
17% 31% 4%
Average 20% 33% 17%
Touchpoint influence varies by beauty category
36
Walmart’s integration with OpenAI’s
ChatGPT may have more upside
for CPG than other categories, with
the global retailer representing a
significant share of total sales for
many packaged goods companies.
4%
11%
14%
16%
16%
21%
22%
COTY
COLGATE-PALMOLIVE
KIMBERLY CLARK
P&G
KELLANOVA
KRAFT HEINZ
GENERAL MILLS
AI and Technology in CPG: From
Experimentation to Integration
CPG companies accelerated the integration of
artificial intelligence across operations in 2024-25,
moving beyond pilot programs toward scaled
deployment across marketing, supply chain,
and product development. The most visible AI
applications emerged in marketing and content
creation, dramatically improving both speed and
efficiency. This has thrown up a challenge for
marketing teams looking to shift procurement
conversations to more tech-forward methodologies
versus the time & materials models historically
applied to agency relationships.
Beyond marketing, CPG companies have also
applied AI to supply chains and operations to
improve everything from factory yields to fuel use.
But perhaps most intriguingly, we heard from CPG
companies about AI deployed in R&D and product
development settings to accelerate innovation and
cost effectiveness. Companies can test more
formulations, model consumer preferences,
and predict performance before expensive test
marketing. This is already being applied by some
companies to adapt to shifts toward healthier foods
and foods that are compatible with GLP-1 drugs,
for instance. (See the U.K. market report for a
discussion of the impact of the new Less Healthy
Food advertising regulation).
Looking ahead, CPG companies view AI as a
competitive differentiator, not just an efficiency
tool. The companies investing most heavily
and integrating most effectively will likely see
advantages in speed to market, cost position,
marketing effectiveness, and ability to serve
increasingly fragmented consumer needs with
greater precision.
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WALMART SHARE OF NET SALES BY COMPANY
37
RETAILERS
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4.6% Median Ad
Intensity
2025E
38
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Advertising Outlook
Within our tracked retailers composite, total advertising spend is estimated to grow 8.3%
in 2025, with an additional 9.9% increase anticipated in 2026. Early indicators from the three
companies reporting fiscal year-ends in February, March and August of 2025 support this trajectory,
with advertising investment continuing to accelerate. The median advertising share of total revenue
is expected to be broadly similar at 4.6%. Our composite of retail companies covers many of
the largest grocery, mass, drug, quick commerce and pure-play e-commerce players.
Retail advertising strategies are sharply bifurcated. E-commerce platforms
outpace traditional retailers in advertising spend growth and allocating
advertising as a percentage of revenue as they leverage these investments
to fund growth through higher-margin ad streams while traditional retailers
are often constrained by lower margins and extensive physical footprints. In
2025, e-commerce ad spend is expected to grow by 9.7%, accounting
for 5.9% of their total revenue. In contrast, traditional retailers (defined
as companies with primarily physical operations) are expected to grow
advertising modestly, 1.9%, with advertising spend representing a much
smaller 0.8% of their revenue. E-commerce platforms are defined as online
websites/marketplaces and last-mile delivery services.
Advertising spend by China-based retailers grew by 11.2% in 2024 and 9.2%
of their revenue was allocated to advertising. This upward trend is set to
continue, with spending expected to further increase by 7.7% in 2025 and
11.6% in 2026, contributing to stronger global digital advertising growth
from cross-border advertising.
Retailers Advertising as a Percentage of Revenue
Source: WPP
Media, Company
Filings, LSEG Data
& Analytics
39
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AI
Innovations like Google's Gemini
and OpenAI's Atlas, an AI-powered
browser, are rapidly reshaping
discovery, while retailer
integrations, notably Google’s
agentic checkout and OpenAI’s
partnerships with Walmart and
Shopify, signal a nascent yet
growing AI-driven commerce
landscape. However, this
evolution presents advertisers
with a complex strategic calculus:
while AI promises efficiency in
everything from creative
optimization to supply chain
logistics, the risk of losing
consumer relationships (and
consumer data) to these new
AI intermediaries means some,
like Amazon, have chosen not
to open their inventory to the likes
of OpenAI. For Amazon this makes
sense. They have a significant
share of the market, meaning
consumers are likely to still come
to their site to start a search, plus
they have their own AI shopping
tools they want to promote. And
the customer data gained from
purchases made on their site
contributes to company profits. In
the most recent quarter (3Q25),
advertising represented 9.0% of
net sales. For smaller retailers, and
even for Walmart, which doesn’t
have a comparable AI play at the
time of writing, it will likely
continue to make sense for them
to partner with AI companies and
lean more heavily into in-store
advertising offerings and customer
loyalty programs.
Key Trends
Retailers face a complex operating environment dominated
by tariff-driven pricing pressures, intensifying competition from
smaller players, and the perpetual tension between short-term
sales activation and long-term brand building. Holiday sales
forecasts remain mixed - consumers anticipate higher prices
driven by higher inflation yet remain receptive to promotional
offers. Retailers are increasingly prioritizing expansive
omnichannel strategies to engage customers across all
touchpoints of their purchasing journey. Concurrently, there’s
a notable trend toward unlocking brand heritage, with
anniversary campaigns and archival creative reflecting a
renewed appreciation for foundational brand narratives. While
digital channels remain central, retailers are also broadening
their evaluation of social platforms, moving beyond the largest
media owners in this space.
The search landscape is undergoing a significant transformation.
This shift, combined with the evolving role of social media —
including the rise of social search and community platforms like
Reddit — is fundamentally reshaping the consumer purchase
journey and the role retailers play in it. Leveraging their
extensive first-party data, retailers are increasingly focused on
audience-first planning. Many have also emerged as significant
media owners, with retail media networks rapidly becoming a
critical and expanding revenue stream (see Commerce section
on page 24 for further details).
Source: Company Filings and LSEG Data & Analytics.
Note: Data is on a fiscal year basis.
Ad Spending Growth
E-commerce vs. Traditional
40
MEDIA &
ENTERTAINMENT
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6.0%Median Ad
Intensity
2025E
Source: WPP Media,
Company Filings, S&P Global
Note: Music includes Live Nation
41
Advertising Outlook/Strategies
Advertising growth in the Media and Entertainment category is forecast to be 2.6% in 2025 and 6.3%
in 2026. This is projected to outpace overall category revenue growth in 2025 (+1.8%) and match it in
2026 (+6.3%). Early evidence from The Walt Disney Co. supports this, as the company reported that
its fiscal year 2025 (ended October) advertising expense grew 6.6%, compared to the company’s
overall revenue growth of 3.4%. Additionally, industry commentary during 3Q 2025 earnings
suggests no anticipated marketing reductions for 2026, further reinforcing this growth.
We project advertising as a percentage of revenue will hold steady at 6% in both 2025 and 2026,
similar to 2024. This implies continued strong investment in advertising within the Media and
Entertainment category. Advertising as a percentage of revenue for our Media and Entertainment
composite was flat in 2024 at 6%, while the median declined to 5.6% from 5.9% in 2023. Even as
entertainment marketing continues to evolve, mass media channels remain critical for generating
buzz and awareness, with continued reliance on sports and OOH as we have previously written
about. The landscape has undergone a fundamental shift as studios and streamers compete for
audience attention. Traditional theatrical releases now share budgets with digital campaigns
optimized for social virality, while streamers like Netflix, Disney+, and Amazon Prime leverage
algorithmic personalization and data-driven targeting to serve tailored recommendations directly
to subscribers. Studios are investing heavily in influencer partnerships, TikTok challenges, and
interactive experiences that blur the line between marketing and entertainment, recognizing
younger audiences discover content via social platforms as well as conventional advertising.
Media & Entertainment Advertising as a
Percentage of Revenue By Segment
Key Trends
TV and film companies, representing nearly 80% of advertising investment within this category,
experienced a decline in advertising of 3.6% in 2024. However, Disney's strong fiscal year 2025 earnings
offer a clue to a potential market recovery, and we project a positive growth rate of 1.0% in this sub-
category for 2025, a notable improvement over the previous two years of decline. The sluggish box
office recovery in most markets weighed heavily on advertising. Worldwide box office was down 12.1%
in 2024 according to Box Office Mojo, and the industry remains in transition from a model built on
linear viewership and movie theater attendance to streaming. Meanwhile, our streaming segment,
which includes Netflix, showed revenue growth of 14% in 2024, and 10.8% in the first 9 months of
2025, underscoring the ongoing shift in how audiences consume content and where media companies
are prioritizing investment. This is in stark contrast to our linear television segment in our composite,
which saw revenue decline 1% in 2024, and drop 11% in the first nine months of 2025.
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Source: WPP Media, Company Filings, S&P Global
42
Outlook
Industry consolidation appears increasingly probable in 2026. The summer of 2025 saw the notable
merger of Skydance with Paramount and at the time of writing, Warner Bros. Discovery is actively
engaged in acquisition conversations with Netflix, Comcast, and Paramount Skydance. In Europe,
where smaller, national players have struggled to compete against the globally scaled U.S. based
entities, consolidation may be seen as even more of a necessity. This year, MFE invested in Germany’s
ProSiebenSat.1, and Comcast’s Sky has made an offer to acquire ITV’s media and entertainment
business, including ITVX. The regulatory environment and ongoing focus on streaming profitability will
likely shape which deals move forward and how media ownership evolves over the next 12 to 24 months.
Even globally scaled media players are likely to face a new competitive environment with the further
adoption and evolution of generative AI platforms. Netflix has famously referred to the wide set of
activities (and companies) they view as competitors to audiences spending time engaging with Netflix
content. We assume the company and its media peers now have Google, Amazon, Meta, and OpenAI
squarely in their sights as those companies sit at the forefront of both AI-generated content (albeit
short-form) and AI-generated experiences in the form of chatbots that increasingly serve as content
discovery tools, potentially displacing traditional search, social feeds, and recommendation engines.
These AI platforms are therefore positioned to become the next generation of content aggregators and
discovery portals. The partnership business model appears straightforward: AI platforms retain users by
surfacing entertainment content; media companies license their catalogs for distribution and gain a new
revenue stream. However, this symbiotic relationship has fundamental tensions. The same companies
offering distribution have already ingested vast amounts of entertainment IP to train models that could
generate substitute content (the central dispute in ongoing litigation from The New York Times, Getty
Images, and major record labels over copyright and compensation). Media companies must now evaluate
whether licensing to AI platforms creates short-term revenue at the cost of strengthening their own
replacement. Netflix and Amazon were previously the beneficiaries of using licensed content to engage
users on their streaming platforms, but now face the same dilemma as their legacy predecessors.
Media & Entertainment Advertising as a Percentage of Revenue
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The shift from streaming growth to profitability is now well underway. Most streaming platforms have
moved beyond their launch phase and are focused squarely on profitability rather than subscriber
acquisition at any cost. Sports remain the primary growth driver for streaming and are likely to maintain
that position in the near term as platforms compete for rights and audiences that seek live, communal
viewing experiences.
43
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TECHNOLOGY
1.8% Median Ad
Intensity
2025E
44
Advertising Trends
Our technology category composite — comprising companies whose revenue is primarily derived
from hardware rather than software, including HP, Xiaomi, LG, Samsung, Apple, Lenovo, Dell,
and Nintendo — reflects a sector navigating transformation while maintaining disciplined marketing
investment. For the composite, median advertising as a percent of revenue was 1.8% in 2024, down from
1.9% in 2023. Despite the declining ratio, overall advertising expense across the category increased 3% in
2024. We expect advertising expense to increase 9.9% in 2025 and a further 7.6% in 2026 even as
advertising's share of revenue remains stable.
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Category Trends
Artificial intelligence emerged as the dominant
theme across technology advertisers' recent
earnings, fundamentally reshaping both product
roadmaps and marketing priorities. Phone
manufacturers reported strong adoption of
intelligence features, with AI capabilities becoming
a material purchase consideration. Apple noted AI
PCs and AI-enabled devices commanding premium
pricing while driving marketing emphasis on
differentiated capabilities.
PC manufacturers reported accelerating AI PC
penetration rates. HP disclosed that AI PCs reached
25% of shipments in Q3 2025, hitting their full-year
target a quarter early, with expectations of 50%
penetration within two years. Lenovo achieved
33% AI PC mix, explicitly noting triple-digit revenue
growth in AI PCs. Dell highlighted strong enterprise
interest in AI-ready devices configured with higher
memory and processing capabilities.
This AI transition is likely to require considerable
marketing investment to educate enterprise and
consumer buyers on new capabilities and justify
premium pricing. Multiple companies noted they
are balancing this need against component cost
pressures, particularly rising memory prices that
compressed margins in the most recent quarter.
Rising memory and storage costs
emerged as a universal concern, as did
tariff impacts, all with implications for
both product margins and marketing
strategy. Multiple smartphone
manufacturers — Xiaomi, Samsung,
Lenovo — acknowledged margin pressure
from memory cost increases, though most
expressed confidence in mitigating
impact through product mix optimization,
supply chain management, and selective
price increases. Geopolitical tensions and
tariffs are leading to shifting production
and messaging away from China in some
cases (with companies manufacturing
products in India, Vietnam, Mexico, and
other markets), and to China in others,
with Huawei focusing on its domestic
market despite ongoing consumer
spending sluggishness. Marketing is
expected to play a key role in supporting
the pass through of increased component
and supply-chain costs to consumers and
in promoting premium products that
come with higher margins.
Advertising growth will be driven by revenue growth as multiple catalysts converge: AI
infrastructure and AI-enabled devices, robotics applications, electric-vehicle launches,
and the return of the consumer hardware upgrade cycle approximately four years after
the pandemic-era purchasing boom. This timing aligns with typical replacement cycles
for smartphones (3-4 years) and PCs (4-5 years), creating a natural inflection point for
marketing investment, boosted by the concurrent end of Microsoft Windows 10 support.
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Outlook
Perhaps more so than any other industry, technology companies assume they will be
expected to demonstrate and promote the effectiveness of AI within their own businesses
as a proof point to both consumers and investors being asked to buy into the promise
of artificial intelligence. This will include cost effectiveness, but also a focus on brand
differentiation as commoditized features become more expensive to deliver. In the new
world of AI-mediated search and entertainment, that will require marketing strategies that
seek to influence both human audiences - increasingly via channels like streaming TV, live
sports, and creator marketing - as well as LLMs, which will also almost certainly rely on
creators and communities. The challenge for many technology brands will be in building
trust and comfort levels in these channels where they don’t control the narrative and
where measurement may be less clear-cut.
Heading into 2026, there are both opportunities for growth and some unyielding risks. The
AI infrastructure build-out and enterprise and consumer adoption of AI products should
drive marketing investment, including from new AI-endemic companies looking to build
their brand awareness and customer base. In addition, the growth in electric vehicle sales
(especially outside the U.S.) should boost revenue and, all else being equal, advertising
investment for companies like Xiaomi (which has launched both a sedan and an SUV), as
well as Samsung, LG, and others which supply components for the auto industry. Beyond
the immediate term, robotics and physical AI applications are currently being developed and
should provide a runway for marketing investment growth as applications commercialize.
Tempering the exuberance of techno-optimism are the ongoing challenges mentioned
above: component cost pressure, tariff uncertainty, market dynamics in China, and
geopolitical tensions between China and its global trading partners. The sector is also not
immune to consumer spending softness in key categories including TVs and computers,
and 2026 sales could weaken if it turns out that 2025’s sales represented more pull forward
in purchases (whether due to subsidized appliance upgrades in China, or pre-tariff purchases
in the United States) than stable demand.
Technology Advertising as a Percentage of Revenue
Source: WPP Media, Company Filings,
LSEG Data & Analytics
45
46
FINANCIAL
SERVICES
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2.4%Median Ad
Intensity
2025E
Source: WPP Media, Company Filings, LSEG Data &
Analytics. Note: Data is on a fiscal year basis.
47
Advertising Outlook/Strategies
Within our tracked financial services composite, which encompasses banks, insurance providers, fintech
platforms, and payment companies, advertising spend is estimated to grow 11.2% in 2025, with an additional
9.3% increase anticipated in 2026. Excluding fintech companies, the sector is expected to see more
moderate growth of 10.2% in 2025 and 8.3% in 2026. Early indicators from the three companies reporting
fiscal year-ends in March and June of 2025 support this trajectory, with advertising investment continuing to
accelerate. Twenty-nine out of the 39 companies we track increased advertising spend in fiscal year 2024,
underscoring broad-based confidence in marketing's role despite macroeconomic headwinds.
Looking ahead, the median advertising share of total revenue is expected to be broadly similar at 2.4%.
This stable share of marketing investment underscores an expectation of continued growth, driven by
a strategic confluence of enhanced marketing efficiencies, and a reallocation of resources, particularly
towards AI-driven initiatives. Fintechs, in particular, are expected to outpace traditional financial companies
in both spending growth and advertising intensity, reshaping the sector’s competitive landscape and
forcing legacy players to reconsider their approach to customer acquisition and brand building.
Balancing brand building and performance marketing in an era of agentic AI and heightened regulatory
scrutiny is a key strategic challenge for financial services advertisers. Many advertisers are moving away
from broad, mass-market approaches in favor of more targeted segments and markets, adopting a
blended media strategy that combines the lasting influence of traditional channels like TV with the
precision targeting capabilities of digital platforms. Financial literacy initiatives are gaining momentum
as brands leverage consumer knowledge gaps as differentiation opportunities, particularly among younger
demographics navigating complex financial decisions for the first time.
There is growing focus on localizing marketing efforts and leveraging sports and cultural sponsorships,
which continue to play a vital role in improving brand visibility and deepening local engagement. In the
insurance sector, marketing strategies are increasingly focused on addressing commoditization and building
consumer trust. For example, brands are investing in campaigns that emphasize reliability and transparency
to differentiate themselves in a crowded market where price comparison sites drive consumer decisions.
Despite the potential, influencer marketing in the financial services has not gained widespread traction
compared to other industries. This is largely due to strict regulatory requirements, concerns about
compliance, and the sensitive nature of financial products. While some brands experiment with influencer
collaborations — particularly for financial literacy initiatives — overall adoption remains limited.
Financial Services Advertising as a Percentage of Revenue
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7.4%
Fintech Advertising
Expense as a % of
Revenue (2025E)
48
AI and Digital
Distribution
Source: WPP Media, Company Filings, LSEG Data & Analytics.
Note: Figures are presented on a fiscal year basis.
Key Trends
Unlike goods-based sectors, financial services face minimal direct
tariff impacts due to their service-oriented business models and
predominantly domestic revenue streams. Companies are signaling a
positive outlook, with improving margins, increased M&A/IPO
activity, resilient consumer spending supported by Buy Now Pay Later
schemes, and loan growth benefitting from the rise in AI companies.
Improving market sentiment, easing monetary policies, and a backlog
of companies seeking to go public or merge are likely to further
support growth.
The proliferation of first-party data assets and closed-loop attribution
capabilities has positioned some financial services companies to
launch proprietary advertising networks, mirroring the retail media
playbook pioneered by retailers over the past decade. As institutions
leverage first-party transaction data to build new revenue streams,
they are likely to simultaneously gain greater control over their
customer-acquisition funnels in an increasingly fragmented and
AI-mediated advertising landscape, although there is a gap between
translating data into actionable insights. We estimate global financial
services media network ad revenue to grow by 25.6% in 2025 and
triple by 2030. A challenge remains in the strict regulatory
requirements of the sector, meaning that customer acquisition
functions may not have access to the wealth of data held by the side
of the business supporting existing customers.
Digital disruption, powered by
blockchain, the rise of fintechs,
and AI, is transforming the
sector and challenging traditional
banking models but also
increasing cybersecurity risks.
The integration of AI presents
immense opportunities for
enhanced customer experience
and operational efficiencies,
alongside significant compliance
challenges that necessitate
rigorous approval processes.
A defining consideration for the
sector is how financial services
companies will adapt their
marketing approaches in an
increasingly regulated industry
where customer interactions
are rapidly shifting toward
personalized, agentic AI
experiences. As digital assistants
and chatbots mediate a growing
share of brand-consumer
touchpoints, financial institutions
face a dual mandate: ensuring
compliance across AI-mediated
interactions while maintaining
brand differentiation in algorithm-
curated recommendation
environments.
Advertising Expense
as a Percentage of Revenue
DECEMBER 2025 • THIS YEAR NEXT YEAR
I END-OF-YEAR FORECAST I CATEGORY TRENDS l FINANCIAL SERVICES
49
DECEMBER 2025 • THIS YEAR NEXT YEAR
I END-OF-YEAR FORECAST I CATEGORY TRENDS l AUTO
AUTO
2.1% Median Ad
Intensity
2025E
Source: WPP Media, Company
Filings, S&P Global
50
Advertising Outlook and Strategies
Despite uncertainty, the industry's commitment
to advertising remains strong. We project a
median global advertising spend as a percentage
of revenue of 2.1% for 2025, slightly up from 2.0%
in 2024. We forecast total industry advertising
growth of 6.0% in 2025 and 7.2% in 2026.
Established automakers will likely maintain or
slightly increase spending to support brand
relevance and promote new models. Much of
the advertising growth will come from newer
Chinese manufacturers as they continue
aggressive marketing to gain market share in
regions such as Europe, MENA, APAC, and LATAM.
Channel strategies vary dramatically by market
and brand maturity. Most manufacturers are
challenged to unify approaches across diverse
markets, where varying policy frameworks, EV
infrastructure, and market conditions drive
different powertrain adoption — internal
combustion engines (ICE) dominate in the U.S.
while China and Europe favor EVs. Auto brands are
significantly increasing investment in biddable and
addressable media channels, a trend that has
accelerated over the past few years and is
expected to continue, reflecting a shift toward
accountable, performance-driven outcomes.
However, this evolution has exposed a critical
tension. Heavy focus on performance media has
led to softening brand metrics for some brands.
Marketers are now reconsidering budget
allocations to balance performance and brand-
building activities. The growing role of influencers
and brand ambassadors reflects this shift, with major
automakers moving toward long-term partnerships
that build sustained brand conversation.
The enduring appeal of sports sponsorships remains
intact, though the landscape is changing.
Interestingly, Chinese brands still rely heavily on
traditional channels like TV and major sponsorships
for brand awareness. In Brazil, they're effectively
using product placement in soap operas alongside
sports sponsorships at events like the European
Championships. However, Toyota, a longtime
Olympic sponsor, recently ended its partnership
and is rethinking its approach, while other
automakers like Ford and BYD view sports as a
major cornerstone in their marketing efforts. This
divergence illustrates how sponsorship value varies
by brand and market. Dealer sentiment strongly
influences these decisions, especially in the U.S.
DECEMBER 2025 • THIS YEAR NEXT YEAR
I END-OF-YEAR FORECAST I CATEGORY TRENDS l AUTO
Auto Advertising as a Percentage of Revenue
Source: Euromonitor
51
Outlook
The auto industry faces mounting pressure from tariffs, interest rates, and
economic uncertainty. While EV adoption varies by region, the transition is
proving more of a marathon than a sprint in markets like North America. For
marketers, the critical challenge is balancing investment between EV and
ICE marketing strategies. This complexity is reflected in uneven global
market performance.
According to ACEA data, global car markets present a mixed picture. In the
first half of 2025, worldwide registrations increased by +5%, largely driven by
China (+12%). North America experienced more moderate growth at +2.5%,
while Europe declined by -2.4%. South America led in growth at +12.7%. We
anticipate these trends will persist, particularly in North America, where the
expiration of U.S. EV tax credits could negatively impact sales.
Global Light Vehicle Sales by Powertrain
With pressure to operate more efficiently while producing exponentially more content, automakers
are turning to AI-driven production and automation as critical tools for scaling creative, enabling rapid
localization and market-specific variations. Platforms like Reddit and YouTube are emerging as trust-
building spaces, requiring credible brand presence as the industry grapples with anxiety around AI-
powered search and answer engines reshaping marketing strategies.
DECEMBER 2025 • THIS YEAR NEXT YEAR
I END-OF-YEAR FORECAST I CATEGORY TRENDS l AUTO
52
DECEMBER 2025 • THIS YEAR NEXT YEAR
I END-OF-YEAR FORECAST I CATEGORY TRENDS l PHARMA
PHARMA
3.0% Median Ad
Intensity
2025E
53
Marketing and Advertising Trends
The pharmaceutical industry's advertising intensity continues to evolve. Median pharmaceutical
advertising as a percentage of revenue was 3.0% in 2024, up from 2.5% in 2023. Across our
pharma composite, advertising expense grew at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of
4.8% versus revenue, which grew at a CAGR of 15.2% over the last five years. As a result, median
advertising spend as a percentage of revenue declined from 4.4% in 2019 to 3.0% in 2024, despite
the year-over-year uptick from 2023. Assuming a stable market, we project flat advertising growth
in 2025 and 4.7% growth in 2026. It is important to note that the U.S. is one of only two global
markets (along with New Zealand) that permits direct-to-consumer pharmaceutical advertising,
and according to OECD data, the U.S. is also the largest market for prescription medicine
spending per capita.
Pharma marketing is undergoing a significant
transformation driven by digital technologies, AI, big
data, personalized medicine, and gene and cell
therapies. Globally, a key trend is the move away from
simply promoting products and towards crafting patient-
centric narratives that emphasize outcomes, wellness,
and lived experiences. Increasingly, many brands are
looking at the use of data analytics, artificial intelligence,
and omnichannel engagement strategies for precisely
targeting healthcare professionals and patients.
Social media, influencer partnerships, and immersive
technologies like AR are being leveraged to make
complex information more accessible and engaging.
The use of AR apps and tools to provide visual
demonstrations of how to use inhalers or injectables
demonstrates the ways Pharma brands are beginning
to utilize these newer channels and formats, even as
shifts of media dollars remain slow. +
DECEMBER 2025 • THIS YEAR NEXT YEAR
I END-OF-YEAR FORECAST I CATEGORY TRENDS l PHARMA
Pharma Advertising as a Percentage of Revenue
Source: WPP Media,
Company Filings, S&P Global
54
Outlook
With increasing pricing pressures and generic competition, global marketers are prioritizing efficiency,
credibility, and trust. Despite these headwinds, we expect moderate mid-to-single-digit revenue growth
among the top nine pharmaceutical companies tracked in our composite. This projected growth would
support a relatively stable rate of advertising as a share of revenue, around 3%, consistent with the trends
outlined above.
While U.S. brands benefit from pricing flexibility that supports large-scale marketing investments, the new
presidential administration initially threatened both tighter advertising restrictions and tariffs on imported
pharmaceuticals. On the advertising front, no significant policy changes have materialized to date, so our
base case forecast does not incorporate a major impact on advertising levels. Regarding tariffs, the
administration granted exemptions for companies meeting domestic investment requirements. The tariff
concerns were further mitigated by two factors. About 90% of U.S. prescriptions are for generic drugs,
which would be unaffected. Additionally, major pharmaceutical companies including Eli Lilly, AstraZeneca,
Roche Holding, and GSK have pledged over $350 billion by the end of the decade on U.S. manufacturing,
R&D, and other functions and were granted tariff exemptions.
As the pharmaceutical industry continues to advance GLP-1 therapies, their increasing efficacy and global
availability are poised to significantly impact other categories in the near term. We will closely monitor
these potential impacts.
DECEMBER 2025 • THIS YEAR NEXT YEAR
I END-OF-YEAR FORECAST I CATEGORY TRENDS l PHARMA
Spending on Retail Pharmaceuticals
Per Capita, USD
Source: OECD
55
DECEMBER 2025 • THIS YEAR NEXT YEAR
I END-OF-YEAR FORECAST I CATEGORY TRENDS l LUXURY
LUXURY
9.8% Median Ad
Intensity
2025E
Source: WPP Media, Company Filings, LSEG Data & Analytics. Note: Figures are
fiscal year expenses shown in the closest calendar year. LVMH and Prada figures
include promotional costs. Hermès and Richemont are labeled as communications.
Capri includes marketing expenses. Tapestry and Hugo Boss are labeled as marketing
expenses.
56
Advertising Outlook/Strategies
Within our luxury composite, we estimate advertising expense to decline by
1.1% in 2025 but grow by 2.3% in 2026. Despite the overall decline in the fiscal
year 2025 forecast, five out of eight tracked companies are expected to
increase their advertising spend. Advertising investment has continued to
grow for the two of the three companies reporting fiscal year ends in March
and June of 2025. The median advertising share of total revenue is expected to
be broadly similar at 9.8%, with advertising expenses growing broadly in line
with total revenue growth.
With expectations of slower growth, companies are relying on the
effectiveness of marketing strategies to maintain long-term brand desirability.
Some luxury brands are refining their audience targeting to focus more on
consumers with the means to afford premium products, creating a sense of
exclusivity and building a powerful brand narrative through storytelling.
According to WPP Media’s How Humans Decide report, luxury consumers, who
may need more reassurance of the purchase of products, are more receptive to
marketing communications. While social media remains important for
campaign engagements particularly for GenZ consumers, luxury brands are
diversifying beyond social media and increasingly investing in high-impact
advertising such as out-of-home (OOH) and streaming to build long-term brand
desirability. Brands are also considering how shifts toward AI-driven search
may affect their ability to manage consumer traffic and consumer behaviors,
which may require balancing digital and physical brand experiences.
Luxury Advertising as a Percentage of Revenue
DECEMBER 2025 • THIS YEAR NEXT YEAR
I END-OF-YEAR FORECAST I CATEGORY TRENDS l LUXURY
57
Key Trends
In 2024, the luxury sector saw a notable slowdown, with total sales growth nearly flat at 0.3%
following strong post-pandemic sales driven by price increases. Recovery in the sector is closely
tied to Chinese consumer demand and tariffs, with any rise in costs likely to be passed on to luxury
consumers. While the U.S. and China are key markets for the luxury sector, growth opportunities
are emerging in the Middle East, Latin America, and Southeast Asia due to expanding middle
classes. The sector faces potential consumer resistance to higher prices particularly from emerging
classes. Currency headwinds are impacting growth of markets such as Japan. Meanwhile evolving
attitudes towards materials such as leather might have an impact, although hard luxury jewelry is
likely to show resilience due to its enduring value as silver and gold prices reach record highs.
Within the M&A space, larger deals are faltering (e.g., Tapestry and Capri), though activity is
increasing among smaller players (e.g., Versace and Prada).
DECEMBER 2025 • THIS YEAR NEXT YEAR
I END-OF-YEAR FORECAST I CATEGORY TRENDS l LUXURY
¥
¢
$€
AI Impact
In the luxury sector,
AI is primarily being
adopted for backend
processes rather than
front-end applications
such as crafting of luxury
products. Luxury brands
have implemented AI in
diverse ways: from
tracking real-time
inventory and counterfeit
detection through image
analysis to employing
AI-powered chatbots
to enhance personalized
customer interactions.
Early adoption of AI may
be key to maintaining
a competitive edge,
although the sector
has been slow to
embrace e-commerce.
58
DECEMBER 2025 • THIS YEAR NEXT YEAR
I END-OF-YEAR FORECAST I CATEGORY TRENDS l B2B
B2B
2.5% Median Ad
Intensity
2025E
Source: WPP Media, Company Filings,
LSEG Data & Analytics • Calculated
composite advertising as a % of revenue
for 2025 is estimated at 1.6%
59
Advertising Outlook
B2B advertising intensity for our composite of 40 companies across logistics, industrial, software,
productivity, and professional services segments reached 1.5% of revenue in 2024, totaling $14.5
billion in advertising expense against $965 billion in total revenue. This represents a modest uptick
from 2023 levels (1.4%) but remains below the 2022 benchmark (1.6%). The median figure of 2.5%
in 2025 masks significant variation with the category: Larger industrial and logistics companies
allocate substantially less to advertising (0.8% median) compared to software-focused businesses
(2.7% median), reflecting fundamental differences in sales models, purchase cycles, and
competitive intensity.
For 2025, we anticipate advertising expense growth of 12.5%, though this aggregate figure
masks divergent trajectories across subsegments. Software and SaaS advertisers are positioned
to increase investment as AI-driven product innovation intensifies competitive pressure and
creates genuine differentiation opportunities. On the other hand, professional services firms
face elongated sales cycles and heightened procurement scrutiny that may constrain budget
expansion despite robust demand for AI implementation consulting. Meanwhile, industrial
advertisers will confront headwinds from potential tariff implementations and manufacturing-sector
uncertainty, likely maintaining or marginally reducing advertising intensity.
The sector's relatively low advertising intensity compared to consumer-facing categories (CPG at
6.6%, retailers at 4.6%) reflects B2B's historical reliance on direct sales relationships rather than
media-driven awareness. This calculus is shifting as buying committees expand, decision-makers
skew younger and more digitally native, and the research phase increasingly occurs in AI-mediated
environments where brand salience matters differently than in traditional search contexts.
B2B Advertising as a Percentage of Revenue
DECEMBER 2025 • THIS YEAR NEXT YEAR
I END-OF-YEAR FORECAST I CATEGORY TRENDS l B2B
60
AI Impact
B2B marketers have to adapt to an AI-mediated research environment as well as new audience behavior.
B2B purchases now routinely involve six to 10 stakeholders across procurement, IT, operations, finance,
and end-user departments. WPP Media’s How Humans Decide research indicates that only 16% of sales
are open to influence through lower-funnel marketing, underscoring why B2B advertisers can no longer
rely solely on lead generation. Long-term brand building becomes essential when multiple stakeholders
with varying degrees of category familiarity must reach consensus. The challenge intensifies as AI
transforms the research process itself: When ChatGPT, Perplexity, or Google AI Overviews surface
vendor recommendations based on synthesis rather than traditional search ranking, the rules change
fundamentally. A WPP Media analysis of 40 B2B media vendors on LLM readiness revealed stark
bifurcation, with some suppliers demonstrating strong optimization and positioned to capture budgets,
while others remain surprisingly unprepared and risk invisibility in zero-click research flows.
As AI-powered search summaries replace traditional website visits, B2B advertisers face existential
questions about lead generation mechanics. The shift elevates structured data, authoritative thought
leadership, and optimization for AI citation as new imperatives alongside traditional SEO. This extends
to YouTube and video content generally. In a zero-click world, relying solely on website traffic metrics
may not match how decision-makers actually consume information. Podcasts, for example, remain well
below measurement standards, but there’s a sense that brands “know” their decision makers are listening.
We have found across our conversations with B2B advertisers that they are reviewing content strategies
targeting how AI systems surface and summarize information, not just how humans search.
Branding is likely to be key to breaking through AI noise. In a world where every vendor touts AI capabilities -
from enterprise software to logistics optimization to industrial equipment - none are likely to achieve
differentiation through product features alone. This paradoxically increases the importance of brand trust
and thought leadership. Advertisers who cut through the "GPT wrapper" proliferation with substantiated case
studies and authentic expertise could command greater pricing power while those relying on undifferentiated
AI claims are more likely to compete on price in commoditized categories. The How Humans Decide research
reinforces this: Building receptivity during the priming phase matters more than ever when AI agents may
select from consideration sets on behalf of multiple stakeholders with divergent priorities.
Key Trends
Beyond AI, channel diversification and measurement complexity are likely to have substantial impacts
on the sector. While LinkedIn retains dominance for B2B targeting, some advertisers are expanding into
Reddit and other communities (where technical practitioners congregate), YouTube (for decision-maker
reach), and even gaming environments like Roblox (for SMB audiences). These moves are being made
even if measurement and activation capabilities may lag audience availability in some cases. Meanwhile,
sports partnerships provide scaled reach that offsets linear TV erosion, despite crowding and expense.
We expect that the convergence of these forces — buying-group complexity, AI-mediated
research, measurement gaps, and channel fragmentation — are likely to lead B2B advertisers and
their agency partners toward more integrated strategies that layer brand awareness (via OOH,
streaming TV, or sports) with targeted performance channels (LinkedIn, search, trade publications).
Historically, many B2B advertisers haven't planned brand and direct response holistically, operating
with siloed teams and disconnected KPIs. AI may end up being the catalyst to dissolve these silos
and deliver more cohesive advertising strategies.
B2B advertisers in 2026 face a challenging strategic imperative: Invest in brand building and AI-era
content strategies necessary to future-proof business growth, while continuing to optimize legacy
lead generation that still functions but faces structural headwinds.
DECEMBER 2025 • THIS YEAR NEXT YEAR
I END-OF-YEAR FORECAST I CATEGORY TRENDS l B2B
Regional
Forecasts
61
DECEMBER 2025 • THIS YEAR NEXT YEAR
I END-OF-YEAR FORECAST I REGIONAL FORECASTS
Regional Ad Revenue
Share - 2026
DECEMBER 2025 • THIS YEAR NEXT YEAR
I END-OF-YEAR FORECAST I REGIONAL FORECASTS
22.2%
39.8%
31.5%
4.7%
Source: WPP Media • U.S. revenue
excludes political advertising
North America's total advertising (excluding U.S. political advertising) is forecast to grow
12.3% in 2025 to $452.9 billion and is expected to grow a further 7.5% in 2026. With a
39.8% share of global advertising, North America is the largest region in the world for
advertising revenue. Looking ahead to 2026, the U.S. midterms are poised to capture near
record political advertising revenue with $12.3 billion, which would be 6.2% higher than the
last midterm election. Additionally, the U.S. and Canada (along with Mexico) are hosting
the 2026 FIFA World Cup, which should boost TV viewership. Key growth channels for
20 are CTV with a 5-year CAGR of 11.9% and retail media with a CAGR of 8.4%.
North America Advertising Revenue And Growth By Market - 2026
7.5%
2026 Growth
NORTH AMERICA
62
1.9%
MEA
NA
APAC
EUROPE
LATAM
The European advertising market is set for robust growth, projected to expand by 5.8% in
2025 to $257.6 billion, with a further 5.5% increase expected in 2026. Over the 2025-2030
period, gaming (18.4% CAGR), financial services (41.0% CAGR), retail media (12.2% CAGR),
and streaming (14.8% CAGR) are identified as the fastest growing channels. Ukraine, the Czech
Republic, and Ireland are anticipated to be Europe's fastest-growing advertising markets.
Digital pure-play advertising penetration shows significant variation across Europe: 24 out of
30 markets fall below the regional average of 67.2% of total ad revenue. This disparity is largely
due to the stronger presence of traditional media, particularly TV and print, in certain regions,
especially Central Eastern Europe. The market is highly concentrated, with Google, Meta,
Amazon, Microsoft, and TikTok collectively holding an estimated 77.0% of Europe's total
digital advertising revenue in 2025.
5.5%
2026 Growth
EU Advertising Revenue and Growth By Market - 2026
EUROPE AND CENTRAL ASIA
DECEMBER 2025 • THIS YEAR NEXT YEAR
I END-OF-YEAR FORECAST I REGIONAL FORECASTS
7.4%
2026 Growth
Source: WPP Media
63
The Middle East and Africa advertising market is expected to experience growth, adding 6.9%
in 2025 to reach $21.6 billion, and further increasing by 7.4% in 2026. While the region's 2025
revenue represents just 1.9% of the global total, it is forecast to achieve the second highest
growth rate globally over the 2025-2030 period, with a CAGR of 8.5%. The fastest growing
channels are expected to be travel (projected 24.3% CAGR), gaming (projected 20.5% CAGR),
retail media advertising (projected 20.2% CAGR), and streaming TV (projected 18.4% CAGR).
MIDDLE EAST & AFRICA
MEA Advertising Revenue And Growth By Market - 2026
Source: WPP Media
APAC is the second largest region after North America representing 31.6% of global ad
revenue and boasting four of the top 10 markets: China, Japan, India, and Australia. The region
is expected to grow ad revenue 6.4% in 2025 to $361.8 billion, and a further 6.6% in 2026.
Growth will then hover around 5% through 2030. Caught in geopolitical tensions between
China and the U.S., the region’s advertising growth could be boosted further by less severe
tariff impacts, increased consumer confidence and spending, and perhaps most importantly,
given the discussion in the introduction about the role of creative destruction in long-term
economic growth, the creation of new AI-endemic businesses seeking regional and global
expansion. China’s advancements in AI models, autonomous driving, and humanoid robots
are likely to find opportunities first in Asia, before expanding into Europe or North America.
6.6%
2026 Growth
APAC Advertising Revenue and Growth By Market - 2026
APAC
DECEMBER 2025 • THIS YEAR NEXT YEAR
I END-OF-YEAR FORECAST I REGIONAL FORECASTS
14.9%
2026 Growth
Source: WPP Media • Argentina
data is inflation adjusted
LATAM is expected to be the fastest growing region for advertising revenue, with a 14.3%
increase to $49.7 billion in 2025 and 14.9% increase in 2026. Brazil and Mexico, the two
largest markets, will capture 73% of the region's total advertising revenue in 2025. LATAM
is the only region where linear TV is expected to grow. Linear TV revenue will increase
6.0% in 2025 and 10.4% in 2026, boosted in part by the FIFA World Cup. Other strong
growth channels over the next five years (2025 to 2030) are retail media with a CAGR of
20.2% and digital OOH with a CAGR of 9.7%.
LATAM
LATAM Advertising Revenue And Growth By Market - 2026
64
Source: WPP Media
69.5%
65
CONCLUSION
DECEMBER 2025 • THIS YEAR NEXT YEAR
I END-OF-YEAR FORECAST I CONCLUSION
We stand at the threshold of advertising's next transformative era — one built
not on sudden revelation, but on the compound effects of a decade-long
foundation in machine learning optimization, the recent acceleration of
generative AI capabilities, and the imminent arrival of real-world AI applications.
The 7.1% global advertising growth projected for 2026 reflects an industry in
transition, where established models face productive disruption and new value-
creation mechanisms emerge.
This transformation embodies the creative destruction our introduction invoked
— the necessary cycle of replacement and renewal that drives economic
progress. Like the pop artists who appropriated commercial imagery and
transformed it through repetition and recontextualization, the advertising
industry must now appropriate and reconfigure its own structures. The
exuberance is warranted: AI promises genuine efficiency gains, democratized
production capabilities, and entirely new categories of advertisers and media
owners. Yet that optimism must remain tempered by the same self-awareness
that defined pop art's engagement with commercialism, an understanding that
transformation creates winners and losers, that concentration of power requires
vigilance, and that human attention and agency remain precious resources not
to be carelessly commodified.
The structural shifts ahead are already materializing. Retail media will surpass
television advertising revenue in 2025, marking the first time a commerce-
driven channel has claimed such prominence. This milestone represents more
than simple reallocation; it signals advertisers' fundamental reorientation
toward closed-loop attribution and first-party data assets. Yet the competitive
landscape will not remain static.
New providers of Advertising Intelligence — platforms built on foundational AI models with
distribution, transaction capability, and rich data assets — are positioned to challenge current
market leaders. Our Future of Advertising Intelligence Framework identifies clear capability gaps
among today's dominant players, with no single entity demonstrating mastery across all
dimensions. This fragmentation creates opportunity for disruption and necessitates strategic
choices: proprietary model development versus partnership strategies, advertising monetization
versus subscription or affiliate models, and open ecosystems versus walled gardens.
Despite the complexity and uncertainty inherent in this transformation, we remain optimistic about
the industry's capacity for adaptation and reinvention. As we continue monitoring these dynamics
over the coming six months, we look forward to illuminating how these forces evolve,
contextualizing their implications for advertisers and media owners alike, and providing the clarity
necessary to navigate advertising's most consequential transition in decades.
U.S. Dollars
in Millions
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
CONTENT
$396,147.3
$433,843.6
$417,174.0
$515,796.3
$536,483.5
$572,821.0
$615,013.2
$663,497.9
$698,822.3
$734,067.3
$775,895.4
$815,281.6
$856,505.4
• Growth
3.4%
9.5%
-
3.8%
23.6%
4.0%
6.8%
7.4%
7.9%
5.3%
5.0%
5.7%
5.1%
5.1%
• Share of Total
68.2%
67.1%
64.5%
62.4%
60.9%
59.7%
58.5%
58.0%
57.1%
56.4%
55.9%
55.5%
55.1%
Total TV
$161,764.4
$160,977.2
$141,340.6
$163,560.6
$165,662.5
$163,200.7
$166,394.4
$167,352.5
$170,802.9
$173,691.0
$177,727.8
$181,341.3
$185,238.4
• Growth
1.2%
-
0.5%
-
12.2%
15.7%
1.3%
-
1.5%
2.0%
0.6%
2.1%
1.7%
2.3%
2.0%
2.1%
• Share of Total
27.9%
24.9%
21.9%
19.8%
18.8%
17.0%
15.8%
14.6%
13.9%
13.4%
12.8%
12.3%
11.9%
Audio
30,991.1
31,264.1
23,471.2
27,074.2
28,097.5
27,583.0
27,560.4
27,521.1
27,596.7
27,464.0
27,272.3
26,862.7
26,365.8
• Growth -
1.2%
0.9%
-
24.9%
15.4%
3.8%
-
1.8%
-
0.1%
-
0.1%
0.3%
-
0.5%
-
0.7%
-
1.5%
-
1.9%
• Share of Total
5.3%
4.8%
3.6%
3.3%
3.2%
2.9%
2.6%
2.4%
2.3%
2.1%
2.0%
1.8%
1.7%
Newspapers
47,762.5
44,663.9
33,313.1
34,803.9
34,607.4
33,141.8
31,513.9
31,427.6
30,409.4
29,821.1
29,672.2
29,601.9
29,451.1
• Growth -
8.7%
-
6.5%
-
25.4%
4.5%
-
0.6%
-
4.2%
-
4.9%
-
0.3%
-
3.2%
-
1.9%
-
0.5%
-
0.2%
-
0.5%
• Share of Total
8.2%
6.9%
5.2%
4.2%
3.9%
3.5%
3.0%
2.7%
2.5%
2.3%
2.1%
2.0%
1.9%
Magazines
26,407.9
24,937.1
19,805.8
20,914.4
20,138.1
18,715.6
16,838.5
15,633.6
13,958.5
12,303.1
10,461.3
9,474.0
9,310.2
• Growth -
7.9%
-
5.6%
-
20.6%
5.6%
-
3.7%
-
7.1%
-
10.0%
-
7.2%
-
10.7%
-
11.9%
-
15.0%
-
9.4%
-
1.7%
• Share of Total
4.5%
3.9%
3.1%
2.5%
2.3%
1.9%
1.6%
1.4%
1.1%
0.9%
0.8%
0.6%
0.6%
Other Digital / Social
129,058.1
171,714.1
195,454.5
264,704.9
282,923.0
325,150.0
366,126.5
413,043.8
445,351.4
477,846.5
514,955.0
549,350.9
584,074.5
• Growth
16.3%
33.1%
13.8%
35.4%
6.9%
14.9%
12.6%
12.8%
7.8%
7.3%
7.8%
6.7%
6.3%
• Share of Total
22.2%
26.5%
30.2%
32.0%
32.1%
33.9%
34.8%
36.1%
36.4%
36.7%
37.1%
37.4%
37.6%
Gaming
163.4
287.2
3,788.7
4,738.3
5,054.9
5,029.9
6,579.6
8,519.4
10,703.5
12,941.6
15,806.8
18,650.8
22,065.3
• Growth
109.0%
75.8%
1219.0%
25.1%
6.7%
-
0.5%
30.8%
29.5%
25.6%
20.9%
22.1%
18.0%
18.3%
• Share of Total
0.0%
0.0%
0.6%
0.6%
0.6%
0.5%
0.6%
0.7%
0.9%
1.0%
1.1%
1.3%
1.4%
LOCATION
40,214.2
42,257.9
31,044.5
38,370.7
43,038.9
48,999.8
53,502.9
56,856.9
60,626.1
63,735.4
67,254.1
70,641.4
74,158.9
• Growth
7.8%
5.1%
-
26.5%
23.6%
12.2%
13.8%
9.2%
6.3%
6.6%
5.1%
5.5%
5.0%
5.0%
• Share of Total
6.9%
6.5%
4.8%
4.6%
4.9%
5.1%
5.1%
5.0%
5.0%
4.9%
4.8%
4.8%
4.8%
Outdoor
37,439.9
39,299.3
30,402.0
37,470.8
41,169.8
46,929.2
51,401.7
54,640.5
58,284.1
61,324.9
64,747.1
68,067.6
71,517.9
• Growth
7.1%
5.0%
-
22.6%
23.3%
9.9%
14.0%
9.5%
6.3%
6.7%
5.2%
5.6%
5.1%
5.1%
• Share of Total
6.4%
6.1%
4.7%
4.5%
4.7%
4.9%
4.9%
4.8%
4.8%
4.7%
4.7%
4.6%
4.6%
Cinema
2,774.3
2,958.5
642.5
899.8
1,869.1
2,070.6
2,101.3
2,216.4
2,342.0
2,410.6
2,507.0
2,573.8
2,641.0
• Growth
17.0%
6.6%
-
78.3%
40.1%
107.7%
10.8%
1.5%
5.5%
5.7%
2.9%
4.0%
2.7%
2.6%
• Share of Total
0.5%
0.5%
0.1%
0.1%
0.2%
0.2%
0.2%
0.2%
0.2%
0.2%
0.2%
0.2%
0.2%
COMMERCE
39,884.0
52,276.0
73,585.2
103,247.1
116,076.8
137,682.4
159,748.6
178,243.6
195,040.1
211,907.1
229,975.4
248,270.9
268,283.1
• Growth
23.6%
31.1%
40.8%
40.3%
12.4%
18.6%
16.0%
11.6%
9.4%
8.6%
8.5%
8.0%
8.1%
• Share of Total
6.9%
8.1%
11.4%
12.5%
13.2%
14.3%
15.2%
15.6%
15.9%
16.3%
16.6%
16.9%
17.2%
- Retail
37,860.6
50,065.6
72,546.8
101,529.6
113,950.0
135,171.6
156,475.8
174,205.5
190,519.1
206,843.1
224,202.5
242,055.0
261,211.2
• Growth
24.4%
32.2%
44.9%
40.0%
12.2%
18.6%
15.8%
11.3%
9.4%
8.6%
8.4%
8.0%
7.9%
• Share of Total
6.5%
7.7%
11.2%
12.3%
12.9%
14.1%
14.9%
15.2%
15.6%
15.9%
16.2%
16.5%
16.8%
- Travel Services
2,023.5
2,210.4
1,023.9
1,636.4
1,967.8
2,318.0
2,716.2
3,339.0
3,647.2
3,977.0
4,425.3
4,512.4
4,901.8
• Growth
10.4%
9.2%
-
53.7%
59.8%
20.2%
17.8%
17.2%
22.9%
9.2%
9.0%
11.3%
2.0%
8.6%
• Share of Total
0.3%
0.3%
0.2%
0.2%
0.2%
0.2%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
- Financial Services
0.0
0.0
14.5
81.1
159.0
192.9
556.6
699.0
873.8
1,087.0
1,347.5
1,703.5
2,170.1
• Growth
—
—
—
459.5%
96.1%
21.3%
188.5%
25.6%
25.0%
24.4%
24.0%
26.4%
27.4%
• Share of Total
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.1%
0.1%
0.1%
0.1%
0.1%
0.1%
0.1%
INTELLIGENCE (Search)
104,267.2
118,660.2
124,931.8
169,803.0
184,970.1
200,416.6
222,344.6
244,949.8
270,109.6
291,232.0
314,490.1
335,080.7
356,394.1
• Growth
17.8%
13.8%
5.3%
35.9%
8.9%
8.4%
10.9%
10.2%
10.3%
7.8%
8.0%
6.5%
6.4%
• Share of Total
18.0%
18.3%
19.3%
20.5%
21.0%
20.9%
21.2%
21.4%
22.1%
22.4%
22.7%
22.8%
22.9%
Advertising
Ex-U.S. Political
$580,512.7
$647,037.6
$646,735.5
$827,217.1
$880,569.4
$959,919.8
$1,050,609.3
$1,143,548.2
$1,224,598.2
$1,300,941.9
$1,387,615.0
$1,469,274.6
$1,555,341.4
• Growth
7.2%
11.5%
0.0%
27.9%
6.4%
9.0%
9.4%
8.8%
7.1%
6.2%
6.7%
5.9%
5.9%
U.S. Political Advertising
6,319.7
1,884.1
10,841.4
2,440.7
11,556.9
2,922.8
14,489.1
3,090.5
12,279.1
3,298.5
15,967.8
3,575.9
13,607.7
Total Advertising
$586,832.5
$648,921.7
$657,576.9
$829,657.8
$892,126.3
$962,842.6
$1,065,098.4
$1,146,638.7
$1,236,877.3
$1,304,240.4
$1,403,582.8
$1,472,850.6
$1,568,949.1
• Growth
8.1%
10.6%
1.3%
26.2%
7.5%
7.9%
10.6%
7.7%
7.9%
5.4%
7.6%
4.9%
6.5%
GLOBAL SUMMARY DATA TABLE
66
DECEMBER 2025 • THIS YEAR NEXT YEAR
I END-OF-YEAR FORECAST I GLOBAL SUMMARY DATA TABLE
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