
Baltic Journal of Economic Studies
12
Vol. 8 No. 4, 2022
1998 nancial crisis (the so-called "Russian winter"),
which was accompanied by a signicant devaluation
of national currencies and, in fact, the formation
of an authoritarian regime in Russia, which is still in
force today.
e recovery of growth in the 2000s, preparations
for EU accession, and foreign capital inows led to
accelerated economic growth. Such a high dynamics
of economic development was due to improved
terms of trade, high quality of institutional reforms
for the countries that integrated into the European
Union, as well as export orientation and commodity
boom in the world economy for the CIS countries.
e second stage of economic development covers
the period 2000–2008. Since 2000, the economic
growth of the CEE countries began to boom. GDP
growth rates ranged from 5 to 11%. e highest rates
of economic growth were in the Baltic countries,
as well as in the European post-Soviet republics –
Ukraine, Belarus and Russia.
Capital growth in all countries is positive, averaging
4.7% (Table 1), with the highest rates in Estonia and
Albania, which have undergone a transition from
agrarian to industrial economies. e lowest indicators
were observed in the economies of Ukraine and Russia.
Common to this group of countries was rapid
nancial integration, increased inow of foreign
capital and dominance of foreign banks in the nancial
markets of post-socialist European countries. Analysis
of investments and savings shows that Central and
Eastern European countries have chosen the path
of economic development at the expense of foreign
capital and external savings. e gap between savings
and investments in favor of the laer has increased
signicantly over the period 2002–2008.
Total foreign nancing of Eastern European
countries increased from 96 billion USD in December
2003 to a peak of 550 billion USD in September
2008. Foreign liabilities of the banking sector of
the CIS countries increased nine times in ve years
and reached USD 280 billion. e Baltic countries are
the most dependent on foreign banks (almost 50%
of banks' liabilities belong to foreign creditors) (Flows
to Eastern Europe, 2009).
e pace of economic reforms in general slowed
down during this period, and high growth rates
were based on a rapid increase in domestic demand,
credit booms contributed to consumption growth
and investments in construction and real estate. e
ip side was the emergence of very large external
imbalances as production capacity did not keep pace
with demand.
Financial ows from the EU increased sharply aer
accession, from less than 1% of GDP on average before
accession to almost 2.5% of GDP within three years in
the form of structural funds, agricultural support and
other subsidies (Roaf et al., 2014).
In general, it can be said that external debt has been
growing in all Central and Eastern European countries
during these years, especially aer 2002. e average
external debt of the Central and Eastern European
countries in 2008 was USD 1165.3 billion.
EU membership spurred economic and nancial
integration, leading to rapid economic growth and
large capital inows. It also created a "halo eect",
shielding some countries from paying more
to borrow external funds in spite of growing
vulnerabilities (Čihak, Mitra, 2009).
During this period, the growth rates in transition
countries were signicantly higher than in the euro
Table 2
Contribution of total factor productivity to economic growth in CEE countries
Country 1991–1999 2000–2008 2009–2019
GDP growth TFP growth TFP share GDP growth TFP growth TFP share GDP growth TFP growth TFP share
Albania -0,01 -1,19 131,2 5,59 -2,27 -0,41 3,09 0,30 0,10
Belarus -2,37 -2,12 0,89 11,03 7,68 0,70 1,83 -2,03 -1,11
Bulgaria -2,42 -1,74 0,72 7,58 3,14 0,41 1,31 -0,02 -0,01
Czech Republic -0,33 -1,46 4,45 4,95 2,49 0,50 2,19 0,54 0,25
Estonia -1,65 0,33 -0,20 8,21 2,86 0,35 2,24 -1,01 -0,45
Hungary -0,75 -0,79 1,06 3,73 2,20 0,59 1,58 -0,06 -0,04
Latvia -4,10 -1,79 0,44 8,59 5,07 0,59 3,39 2,94 0,87
Lithuania -3,68 -2,99 0,81 8,62 6,08 0,71 2,26 1,32 0,58
Moldova -8,68 -7,80 0,90 7,98 7,29 0,91 3,79 2,69 0,71
Poland 3,96 3,24 0,82 4,94 1,77 0,36 3,99 1,26 0,31
Romania -2,07 -3,50 1,70 7,22 5,38 0,75 1,84 -0,01 -0,01
Russian Federation -5,26 -5,10 0,97 8,37 7,07 0,84 0,79 -0,16 -0,21
Slovak Republic 0,07 -0,70 -9,74 7,58 4,93 0,65 2,40 0,77 0,32
Slovenia 1,11 -0,48 -0,43 5,00 1,60 0,32 0,67 -0,27 -0,40
Ukraine -7,38 -6,21 0,84 8,96 8,90 0,99 -1,28 -0,19 0,15
Average -2,24 -2,15 0,96 7,22 4,28 0,59 2,01 0,40 0,20
Source: author's assessment