
8 TaiyangNews | Cell & Module Technology Trends
It is well known that TOPCon is the workhorse of
the industry, and all sources unanimously agree
that TOPCon will dominate the cell technology
landscape. In 2025, CPIA and Exawatt forecast
TOPCon to capture around 80% of the market share,
while ITRPV estimates it slightly lower at close to
70%. This leadership is expected to persist through
the decade, according to both CPIA and Exawatt,
before gradually declining to 60% (CPIA) and 54%.
ITRPV estimates the technology to peak in 2029, but
still at around 70% and then decline to 42% by 2035.
HJT is steadily gaining traction, with all 3 sources
forecasting a gradual rise. In 2025, its estimated
share ranges from 4% according to Exawatt to 8%
according to ITRPV. The technology is seen growing
slowly but surely, reaching 10% by 2028 in Exawatt’s
view, and 20% by 2030 according to CPIA. ITRPV,
in contrast, projects higher initial market capture –
10% already in 2027, but more conservative growth
thereafter, peaking at 14% in the next 5 years and
slightly declining to 12% by 2035.
Although it sounds counterintuitive, the technology
envisioned to take the second spot in market share
is XBC, not HJT. The outlook for XBC (back-contact
technologies), including TBC (TOPCon-based) and
HBC (HJT-based), is more dynamic. Starting from
an 8% to 10% share in 2025, all sources agree on
an upward trajectory for this technology. Exawatt
is especially bullish, projecting a dramatic rise to
35% by 2029. On the other hand, ITRPV is the most
conservative in estimating the technology to reach
a little short of this level in the next 10 years. CPIA’s
projection is also on the conservative side, but still
signals growth, reaching close to 20% by 2030.
Tandem technologies, such as silicon-perovskite
stacks, are expected to remain niche in the near
term, with negligible market presence before 2027.
This technology is expected to be rst be detectable
on the technology radar in 2029, according to both
ITRPV and Exawatt, with a share of about 3%. In
contrast, CPIA maintains a cautious outlook with just
1% in 2030.
1.2 Innovations in Upstream
As market shares shift among cell technologies,
upstream advancements are setting the stage for
broader performance gains across all architectures.
LONGi’s TaiRay wafer, introduced last year,
earns a mention here. The key aspect of this
wafer, according to LONGi, is advancement in
silicon wafer technology, aligning closely with
the evolving needs of high-efciency solar cell
manufacturing, underscoring that wafer and cell
development are inseparably linked. This new ingot
growing technology results in wafers that address
performance and cost challenges. Traditionally,
the ingot production evolved from the standard
Czochralski (CZ) process to Recharge Czochralski
(RCZ) to Continuous Czochralski (CCZ) methods,
each aiming to optimize cost, resistivity control,
and material purity. However, challenges remained,
particularly with CCZ, where increased oxygen
content and metal impurity accumulation lead to
compromised lifetime and process yields, especially
in n-type wafers.
To address this issue, LONGi developed a new
pulling approach: Trailblazing Recharge Czochralski
(TRCZ) technology. TRCZ preserves the productivity
and cost advantages of RCZ while considerably
improving resistivity uniformity and wafer quality
across the ingot. This innovation led to the
introduction of the TaiRay wafer, which has been
available commercially since late last year.
This wafer offers several breakthroughs. It achieves
exceptional consistency in bulk resistivity from
the seed to the tail ends of the ingot, maintaining
variation within a tight 1.1–1.2 ratio. This uniformity
ensures that module production achieves higher
efciency yields, improved EL uniformity, and better
reliability. Moreover, TaiRay wafers are compatible
with all mainstream cell technologies, including
TOPCon, HJT, and BC architectures. The wafers
are offered in different geometries and thicknesses,
meeting the demands of various cell vendors.
One of the standout features of the TaiRay wafer is
its optimized dopant engineering. By using antimony,
LONGi has reduced the migration activation energy
of intrinsic metal impurities, making them easier to
remove during the gettering process. This advantage
is especially critical for sensitive technologies
like HJT. Tests demonstrated that even tail-end
wafers maintain high performance after gettering,
outperforming benchmarked standard silicon
substrates.
Mechanical strength has also been improved. TaiRay