ECONOMIC FEASIBILITY STUDY OF THE IMPLEMENTATION OF ELECTRIC BUSES IN THE URBAN ROAD NETWORK OF JUIZ DE FORA PDF Free Download
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RGSA – Revista de Gestão Social e Ambiental
ISSN: 1981-982X
Submission date: 1/3/2025
Acceptance date: 2/28/2025
DOI: https://doi.org/10.24857/rgsa.v19n4-113
Organization: Interinstitutional Scientific Committee
Chief Editor: Ana Carolina Messias de Souza Ferreira da Costa
Assessment: Double Blind Review pelo SEER/OJS
ECONOMIC FEASIBILITY STUDY OF THE IMPLEMENTATION OF ELECTRIC
BUSES IN THE URBAN ROAD NETWORK OF JUIZ DE FORA
Vitor Silva Coimbra
1
Maria Julia Pereira Brandi
2
Pedro Henrique Rocha Martins
3
André Augusto Ferreira4
Ercília de Stefano5
Juliana Inácio Guimarães Ribeiro6
ABSTRACT
Introduction: This study assesses the economic feasibility of implementing electric buses in Juiz de Fora - MG,
considering acquisition, operation, and maintenance costs compared to diesel models. The methodology is based
on the Total Cost of Ownership (TCO) analysis, considering factors such as charging infrastructure, energy
consumption, government incentives, environmental impact, and public policies related to electromobility.The
results indicate that, although electric buses present 24% lower maintenance costs and up to 88.9% reduction in
electricity expenses when combined with solar energy, the high initial acquisition cost and the need for structural
investments compromise their economic feasibility in the short term. Additionally, implementing charging
infrastructure represents a significant financial challenge for public transport operators. However, the analysis
shows that alternative financing models, such as battery leasing and public-private partnerships (PPPs), can
mitigate some of the financial challenges. Furthermore, more robust public policies, such as government subsidies,
tax exemptions, and differentiated electricity tariffs, are essential to enable the energy transition in the public
transport sector. Thus, this study reinforces the need for economic and regulatory strategies to facilitate fleet
electrification, making urban transport more efficient, sustainable, and economically accessible in the long run.
Objective: This article aims to analyze the economic feasibility of implementing electric buses in public transport
in Juiz de Fora - MG, considering acquisition, operation, and maintenance costs compared to diesel buses. To
achieve this, factors such as energy efficiency, charging infrastructure, government incentive policies, and
available financing models will be evaluated. Additionally, the study seeks to identify the challenges and
opportunities associated with transitioning to an electric fleet in the city, providing subsidies for decision-making
by public managers and transport companies.
Theoretical Framework: The study highlights the Total Cost of Ownership (TCO) analysis, financing models for
electromobility, public policies for sustainable transport, and environmental impacts of fleet electrification,
providing a solid foundation for understanding the research context.
Method: The methodology adopted in this research follows a quantitative approach, based on Total Cost of
Ownership (TCO) analysis and the economic feasibility assessment of fleet electrification. Data was collected
from operational cost surveys, energy consumption analysis, and investments in charging infrastructure,
supplemented by information from case studies and secondary sources, such as technical reports and industry
regulations.
1
Universidade Federal de Juiz de Fora (UFJF), Juiz de Fora, Minas Gerais, Brasil.
E-mail: vitor.coimbra@estudante.ufjf.br Orcid: https://orcid.org/0009-0000-1324-7983
2
Universidade Federal de Juiz de Fora (UFJF), Juiz de Fora, Minas Gerais, Brasil.
E-mail: mariajulia.brandi@estudante.ufjf.br Orcid: https://orcid.org/0009-0005-5168-0274
3
Universidade Federal de Juiz de Fora (UFJF), Juiz de Fora, Minas Gerais, Brasil.
E-mail: rocha.martins@estudante.ufjf.br Orcid: https://orcid.org/0009-0003-5907-4696
4 Universidade Federal de Juiz de Fora (UFJF), Juiz de Fora, Minas Gerais, Brasil.
E-mail: andre.ferreira@ufjf.br Orcid: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0618-4694
5 Universidade Federal de Juiz de Fora (UFJF), Juiz de Fora, Minas Gerais, Brasil.
E-mail: ercilia.stefano@ufjf.br Orcid https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5955-1048
6 Universidade Federal de Juiz de Fora (UFJF), Juiz de Fora, Minas Gerais, Brasil.
E-mail: julianaigribeiro@gmail.com Orcid: https://orcid.org/0009-0004-3310-1024
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Results and Discussion: The results revealed that, despite up to 24% lower maintenance costs and up to 88.9%
electricity savings when using solar energy, the high initial cost of electric buses and charging infrastructure
compromises their economic feasibility in the short term. In the discussion section, these results are contextualized
within the theoretical framework, emphasizing the importance of government subsidies, tax incentives, and
alternative financing models to enable fleet electrification.
Research Implications: The practical and theoretical implications of this research are discussed, providing
insights into how the findings can influence sustainable mobility and electromobility practices. These implications
include public policy planning for urban transport, the adoption of financing models for electric fleets, and the
feasibility of integrating renewable energy into the sector. Additionally, the findings may contribute to strategies
that reduce economic barriers and encourage the transition to a more efficient and sustainable public transport
system.
Originality/Value: This study contributes to the literature by analyzing the economic feasibility of fleet
electrification in a medium-sized city in Brazil, a topic still underexplored in local contexts. The innovative
approach includes the integration of solar energy as an alternative to reducing operational costs, expanding the
debate on sustainability in public transport. The relevance and value of this research are highlighted by its potential
impact on public policy formulation, urban planning, and the adoption of more accessible financial models for
energy transition in the mobility sector.
Keywords: Electric Bus, Economic Feasibility, Public Transport, Solar Energy, Charging Infrastructure.
ESTUDO DE VIABILIDADE ECONÔMICA DA IMPLANTAÇÃO DE ÔNIBUS ELÉTRICO NA
MALHA RODOVIÁRIA URBANA DE JUIZ DE FORA
RESUMO
Introdução: Este estudo avalia a viabilidade econômica da implantação de ônibus elétricos em Juiz de Fora - MG,
considerando custos de aquisição, operação e manutenção em comparação aos modelos a diesel. A metodologia
baseia-se na análise do Custo Total de Propriedade (TCO), levando em conta fatores como infraestrutura de
recarga, consumo energético, incentivos governamentais, impacto ambiental e políticas públicas voltadas à
eletromobilidade.Os resultados indicam que, embora os ônibus elétricos apresentem custos de manutenção 24%
menores e redução de até 88,9% nos gastos com eletricidade quando combinados com energia solar, o alto custo
inicial de aquisição e a necessidade de investimentos estruturais comprometem sua viabilidade econômica no curto
prazo. Além disso, a implementação da infraestrutura de recarga representa um desafio financeiro significativo
para operadores de transporte público. No entanto, a análise demonstra que modelos alternativos de financiamento,
como leasing de baterias e parcerias público-privadas (PPPs), podem mitigar parte dos desafios financeiros. Além
disso, políticas públicas mais robustas, como subsídios governamentais, isenções fiscais e tarifas diferenciadas de
eletricidade, são fundamentais para viabilizar a transição energética no setor de transporte público. Dessa forma,
este estudo reforça a necessidade de estratégias econômicas e regulatórias para viabilizar a eletrificação da frota,
tornando o transporte urbano mais eficiente, sustentável e economicamente acessível a longo prazo.
Objetivo: Este artigo tem como objetivo analisar a viabilidade econômica da implantação de ônibus elétricos no
transporte público de Juiz de Fora - MG, considerando os custos de aquisição, operação e manutenção desses
veículos em comparação aos ônibus a diesel. Para isso, serão avaliados fatores como eficiência energética,
infraestrutura de recarga, políticas de incentivo governamental e modelos de financiamento disponíveis. Além
disso, o estudo busca identificar os desafios e oportunidades associados à transição para uma frota elétrica na
cidade, visando fornecer subsídios para a tomada de decisão de gestores públicos e empresas operadoras do
transporte coletivo.
Referencial Teórico: Destacam-se a análise do Custo Total de Propriedade (TCO), os modelos de financiamento
para eletromobilidade, as políticas públicas para transporte sustentável e os impactos ambientais da eletrificação
da frota, fornecendo uma base sólida para a compreensão do contexto da investigação.
Método: A metodologia adotada para esta pesquisa compreende uma abordagem quantitativa, baseada na análise
do Custo Total de Propriedade (TCO) e na avaliação de viabilidade econômica da eletrificação da frota de ônibus.
Os dados foram coletados a partir de levantamento de custos operacionais, consumo energético e investimentos
em infraestrutura de recarga, complementados por informações de estudos de caso e fontes secundárias, como
relatórios técnicos e normativas do setor.
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Resultados e Discussão: Os resultados obtidos revelaram que, apesar da redução de até 24% nos custos de
manutenção e da economia de até 88,9% nos gastos com eletricidade ao utilizar energia solar, o alto custo inicial
dos ônibus elétricos e da infraestrutura de recarga compromete sua viabilidade econômica no curto prazo. Na seção
de discussão, esses resultados são contextualizados à luz do referencial teórico, destacando-se a importância de
subsídios governamentais, incentivos fiscais e modelos de financiamento alternativos para viabilizar a eletrificação
da frota.
Implicações da Pesquisa: As implicações práticas e teóricas desta pesquisa são discutidas, fornecendo insights
sobre como os resultados podem influenciar práticas no campo da mobilidade sustentável e eletromobilidade.
Essas implicações abrangem o planejamento de políticas públicas para transporte urbano, a adoção de modelos de
financiamento para frotas elétricas e a viabilidade da integração de energias renováveis no setor. Além disso, os
achados podem contribuir para a formulação de estratégias que reduzam barreiras econômicas e incentivem a
transição para um transporte público mais eficiente e sustentável.
Originalidade/Valor: Este estudo contribui para a literatura ao analisar a viabilidade econômica da eletrificação
da frota de ônibus em uma cidade de médio porte no Brasil, um tema ainda pouco explorado em contextos locais.
A abordagem inovadora inclui a integração da energia solar como alternativa para redução de custos operacionais,
ampliando o debate sobre sustentabilidade no transporte público. A relevância e o valor desta pesquisa são
evidenciados pelo seu potencial impacto na formulação de políticas públicas, no planejamento urbano e na adoção
de modelos financeiros mais acessíveis para a transição energética no setor de mobilidade.
Palavras-chave: Ônibus Elétrico, Viabilidade Econômica, Transporte Público, Energia Solar, Infraestrutura de
Recarga.
ESTUDIO DE VIABILIDAD ECONÓMICA PARA LA IMPLEMENTACIÓN DE AUTOBUSES
ELÉCTRICOS EN LA RED VIAL URBANA DE JUIZ DE FORA
RESUMEN
Introducción: Este estudio evalúa la viabilidad económica de la implementación de autobuses eléctricos en Juiz
de Fora - MG, considerando los costos de adquisición, operación y mantenimiento en comparación con los modelos
diésel. La metodología se basa en el análisis del Costo Total de Propiedad (TCO), teniendo en cuenta factores
como infraestructura de recarga, consumo energético, incentivos gubernamentales, impacto ambiental y políticas
públicas relacionadas con la electromovilidad.Los resultados indican que, aunque los autobuses eléctricos
presentan costos de mantenimiento un 24% menores y una reducción de hasta un 88,9% en los gastos de
electricidad cuando se combinan con energía solar, el alto costo inicial de adquisición y la necesidad de inversiones
estructurales comprometen su viabilidad económica a corto plazo. Además, la implementación de infraestructura
de recarga representa un desafío financiero significativo para los operadores de transporte público. Sin embargo,
el análisis muestra que modelos alternativos de financiamiento, como el leasing de baterías y las asociaciones
público-privadas (PPPs), pueden mitigar parte de los desafíos financieros. Asimismo, políticas públicas más
sólidas, como subsidios gubernamentales, exenciones fiscales y tarifas diferenciadas de electricidad, son esenciales
para permitir la transición energética en el sector del transporte público. De esta manera, este estudio refuerza la
necesidad de estrategias económicas y regulatorias para facilitar la electrificación de la flota, haciendo el transporte
urbano más eficiente, sostenible y económicamente accesible a largo plazo.
Objetivo: Este artículo tiene como objetivo analizar la viabilidad económica de la implementación de autobuses
eléctricos en el transporte público de Juiz de Fora - MG, considerando los costos de adquisición, operación y
mantenimiento de estos vehículos en comparación con los autobuses diésel. Para ello, se evaluarán factores como
eficiencia energética, infraestructura de recarga, políticas de incentivos gubernamentales y modelos de
financiamiento disponibles. Además, el estudio busca identificar los desafíos y oportunidades asociados con la
transición a una flota eléctrica en la ciudad, proporcionando insumos para la toma de decisiones por parte de
gestores públicos y empresas operadoras de transporte colectivo.
Marco Teórico: El estudio destaca el análisis del Costo Total de Propiedad (TCO), modelos de financiamiento
para la electromovilidad, políticas públicas para el transporte sostenible y los impactos ambientales de la
electrificación de la flota, proporcionando una base sólida para la comprensión del contexto de la investigación.
Método: La metodología adoptada en esta investigación sigue un enfoque cuantitativo, basado en el análisis del
Costo Total de Propiedad (TCO) y en la evaluación de la viabilidad económica de la electrificación de la flota.
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Los datos fueron recopilados a partir de encuestas de costos operacionales, análisis del consumo energético e
inversiones en infraestructura de recarga, complementados con información de estudios de caso y fuentes
secundarias, como informes técnicos y regulaciones del sector.
Resultados y Discusión: Los resultados revelaron que, a pesar de que los autobuses eléctricos presentan costos
de mantenimiento hasta un 24% menores y una reducción de hasta un 88,9% en los costos de electricidad al utilizar
energía solar, el alto costo inicial de los vehículos y la infraestructura de recarga comprometen su viabilidad
económica a corto plazo. En la sección de discusión, estos resultados se contextualizan a la luz del marco teórico,
destacando la importancia de los subsidios gubernamentales, incentivos fiscales y modelos alternativos de
financiamiento para viabilizar la electrificación de la flota.
Implicaciones de la investigación: Se discuten las implicaciones prácticas y teóricas de esta investigación,
proporcionando información sobre cómo los resultados pueden influir en las prácticas de movilidad sostenible y
electromovilidad. Estas implicaciones incluyen la planificación de políticas públicas para el transporte urbano, la
adopción de modelos de financiamiento para flotas eléctricas y la viabilidad de la integración de energías
renovables en el sector. Además, los hallazgos pueden contribuir a estrategias que reduzcan las barreras
económicas y fomenten la transición hacia un transporte público más eficiente y sostenible.
Originalidad/Valor: Este estudio contribuye a la literatura al analizar la viabilidad económica de la electrificación
de la flota de autobuses en una ciudad de tamaño mediano en Brasil, un tema aún poco explorado en los contextos
locales. El enfoque innovador incluye la integración de energía solar como alternativa para reducir costos
operacionales, ampliando el debate sobre sostenibilidad en el transporte público. La relevancia y el valor de esta
investigación se destacan por su potencial impacto en la formulación de políticas públicas, la planificación urbana
y la adopción de modelos financieros más accesibles para la transición energética en el sector de la movilidad.
Palabras clave: Autobús Eléctrico, Viabilidad Económica, Transporte Público, Energía Solar, Infraestructura de
Recarga.
RGSA adota a Licença de Atribuição CC BY do Creative Commons (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).
1 INTRODUCTION
1.1 CONTEXTUALIZATION OF THE PROBLEM
Public transport plays an essential role in urban mobility, ensuring democratic access to
travel, reducing congestion and promoting sustainability in cities. According to López et al .,
(2022), approximately 80% of public transport in the world is carried out by buses. This mode
of transport is essential for sustainable urban planning. The implementation of efficient public
transport systems can mitigate the negative impacts of population growth and disorderly urban
sprawl, promoting more accessible and resilient cities.
The choice of public transport modes over individual vehicles contributes to optimizing
the use of road space and reducing air and noise pollution levels, which are essential factors for
urban quality of life. Furthermore, modernizing the bus fleet, with the introduction of clean
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technologies, represents a crucial strategy for achieving long-term environmental and economic
goals (CORREA; DI CHIARA, 2020).
Traditional diesel-powered buses are responsible for significant greenhouse gas (GHG)
emissions, contributing to air pollution and worsening climate change. According to Durão et
al ., (2021), emissions from public transport powered by fossil fuels are associated with high
levels of air pollutants, such as particulate matter (PM), nitrogen oxides (NOₓ) and sulfur
dioxide (SO₂), which directly affect public health.
Furthermore, diesel combustion is one of the main urban sources of CO₂ emissions, one
of the causes of global warming. López et al ., (2022) highlight that replacing the diesel fleet
with electric buses can bring substantial benefits to air quality, especially in large urban centers,
where the concentration of polluting vehicles is higher.
The negative environmental impact of fossil fuel buses is not limited to air pollution,
but also includes noise pollution and the high environmental costs associated with oil extraction
and refining. Studies indicate that reducing dependence on fossil fuels in the public transport
sector could contribute to reducing the footprint of cities and transitioning to a more sustainable
development model (CORREA; DI CHIARA, 2020).
The electrification of public transport has been gaining prominence globally as a viable
solution to mitigate environmental impacts and reduce long-term operating costs. According to
López et al ., (2022), several cities around the world have already adopted policies to transition
to electric fleets, with notable examples being Shenzhen, in China, where it electrified its entire
bus fleet, and Madrid, in Spain, which has progressively implemented electric buses in its urban
transport network.
The viability of electrification is directly related to the evolution of battery technology
and the development of charging infrastructure. Durão et al ., (2021) point out that electric
buses have lower operating costs compared to diesel models, due to greater energy efficiency
and reduced maintenance costs. However, the high initial acquisition cost still represents a
challenge for many cities.
In the context of Latin America, et al ., (2020) highlight that countries such as Uruguay
and Chile have already made progress in the electrification of public transport, driven by
government policies and economic incentives. In Montevideo, for example, the replacement of
part of the conventional fleet with electric buses has shown positive results in reducing the
consumption of fossil fuels and in the integration of renewable energies into the energy matrix
of the transport sector.
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1.2 JUSTIFICATION
According to Durão et al ., (2021), the adoption of electric vehicles can significantly
reduce the emission of CO₂, nitrogen oxides (NOₓ) and particulate matter, contributing to
improving air quality and public health. In addition, the lower noise emissions from electric
buses have a positive impact on urban comfort, making cities quieter and more pleasant for
their inhabitants.
From an economic point of view, fleet electrification can reduce long-term operating
costs. López et al ., (2022) highlight that electric buses are more energy efficient and have lower
maintenance costs, since they have fewer moving parts than combustion vehicles. In addition,
the use of renewable sources to supply the electric fleet can provide savings in the energy matrix
of public transport, as observed in Montevideo, where bus electrification has been integrated
with the country's surplus wind energy (CORREA; DI CHIARA, 2020).
Several cities around the world have been investing in the electrification of public
transport as a way to promote urban sustainability. In Brazil, cities such as Maringá, São José
dos Campos and Curitiba have already started implementing electric fleets, demonstrating the
viability of the technology in different operational contexts.
Maringá has adopted electric buses in its municipal fleet to reduce emissions and
operating costs, investing in a charging infrastructure designed to optimize the use of the
electricity grid.
São José dos Campos has implemented electric buses with the aim of integrating
sustainable mobility and energy efficiency solutions, reinforcing its position as a reference in
innovation in public transport.
Curitiba, recognized for its advanced public transportation system, has incorporated
electric buses into its Integrated Transportation Network, reducing environmental impacts
without compromising the efficiency of the service.
In addition to Brazilian cities, other international examples demonstrate the potential of
fleet electrification. Lima, Peru, has invested in electric buses as part of its urban transport
decarbonization strategy, while Shenzhen, China, has become one of the biggest success stories
by electrifying 100% of its public transport fleet, drastically reducing pollution and fossil fuel
costs (LÓPEZ et al ., 2022).
Despite the benefits, the electrification of the bus fleet faces challenges that hinder its
widespread adoption, especially in cities that do not yet have adequate infrastructure for this
type of transport. One of the main obstacles is the high initial cost of purchasing electric
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vehicles, which are still significantly more expensive than diesel models. According to Durão
et al ., (2021), this cost difference can be an obstacle for public transport operators that depend
on government investments or specific financing to make the transition viable.
Another relevant challenge is the charging infrastructure, which requires careful
planning to ensure that electric buses can operate efficiently without compromising the demand
for electricity and service hours for users of this public transport modality. As highlighted by
Correa and Di Chiara (2020), the implementation of charging stations must be integrated into
the urban electricity grid and consider renewable sources to avoid peak consumption and high
electricity costs.
Furthermore, battery lifespan and recycling are still open questions. López et al ., (2022)
point out that, although lithium-ion batteries have evolved in terms of efficiency and durability,
their replacement and proper disposal represent environmental and economic challenges that
need to be considered in the feasibility analysis of the electric fleet.
2 LITERATURE REVIEW
The theoretical framework in a study comprises a critical and organized analysis of the
literature relevant to the topic, providing a theoretical contextualization and defining the key
concepts. It should comprehensively contain the theories, models and previous research,
identifying gaps, contradictions and consensus in the literature that are important for the focus
of the work being developed.
Public transport in Brazil faces significant challenges in terms of infrastructure,
efficiency and sustainability. Currently, buses represent the main form of urban public
transport, accounting for more than 80% of trips made in the country (RODRIGUES; REIS;
MACHADO, 2024). However, a large part of the fleet is still powered by diesel, resulting in
high levels of pollutant emissions and high operating costs.
One of the main challenges faced by Brazilian cities is the renewal of the public
transport fleet. The high cost of purchasing sustainable vehicles, such as electric and hybrid
buses, combined with the need for investment in infrastructure, makes it difficult to replace
combustion models (VOLAN et al ., 2021). In addition, there is a strong dependence on
government subsidies to keep the system operating, making fleet electrification an alternative
that requires strategic planning and adequate incentives.
Urban mobility in Brazil also suffers from the lack of integration between different
modes of transport and from the precarious infrastructure in many cities. The implementation
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of policies that favor the adoption of clean technologies and the modernization of the public
transport fleet becomes essential to improve the quality of the service provided and reduce
environmental impacts (RODRIGUES; REIS; MACHADO, 2024).
The electrification of urban bus fleets has been adopted globally as a solution to the
environmental and operational challenges faced by the public transport sector. In Brazil, cities
such as São Paulo and São José dos Campos have already implemented electric bus projects,
but there are still technical and economic obstacles to be overcome (VOLAN et al ., 2021).
Electric buses are more energy efficient than diesel-powered models. According to
studies, the energy consumed by an electric vehicle can be up to three times less than that of a
fossil-fueled vehicle to travel the same distance (SOUZA; DANTAS, 2020). This is because
electric motors convert electrical energy into mechanical energy more efficiently, in addition
to having energy regeneration systems during braking.
Furthermore, the operating costs of electric buses are significantly lower due to reduced
maintenance, as these vehicles have fewer moving parts and do not require frequent oil changes
or other fluids used in combustion engines (RODRIGUES; REIS; MACHADO, 2024). This
long-term savings can offset the high initial cost of purchasing the vehicle.
Replacing diesel buses with electric buses can drastically reduce greenhouse gas (GHG)
emissions and local pollutants. In São Paulo, Municipal Law No. 16,802 establishes targets for
the progressive reduction of emissions in public transport, aiming to achieve a 100% reduction
in CO₂ emissions by 2038 (VOLAN et al ., 2021). This measure aims to improve air quality in
cities, reducing respiratory and cardiovascular problems caused by vehicle pollution.
Furthermore, electric buses eliminate the emission of nitrogen oxides (NOₓ) and
particulate matter (PM), two of the main causes of urban air quality degradation. Studies
indicate that completely replacing the diesel fleet with electric vehicles can reduce NOₓ
emissions by up to 75% and PM emissions by up to 90% (RODRIGUES; REIS; MACHADO,
2024).
One of the challenges of fleet electrification is the useful life and disposal of electric bus
batteries. Most vehicles use lithium-ion batteries, which have an estimated lifespan of between
8 and 12 years, depending on use and charging conditions (WADY; CONSONI, 2024).
The need for adequate infrastructure for recharging and the high cost of replacing
batteries are factors that impact the economic viability of electric transportation. Alternatives
such as the reuse of batteries in energy storage systems or the recycling of critical materials,
such as lithium and cobalt, have been discussed to mitigate the environmental impacts of this
process (RODRIGUES; REIS; MACHADO, 2024).
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Several cities around the world have adopted strategies to make the electrification of
public transport economically viable. Shenzhen, in China, was the first city in the world to
completely electrify its bus fleet, with government support for subsidies and infrastructure
financing (VOLAN et al ., 2021). In Brazil, São Paulo and Curitiba have advanced in the
transition with financing from public banks and private partnerships to reduce the initial costs
of purchasing electric vehicles (RODRIGUES; REIS; MACHADO, 2024).
The government's role is crucial in the implementation of electric buses, especially
through tax incentives and public policies to promote electromobility. In Brazil, BNDES offers
specific credit lines for the purchase of electric buses, in addition to state incentives, such as
tax exemptions for the acquisition and import of vehicles and components (WADY; CONSONI,
2024).
In São Paulo, in addition to financial incentives, legislation establishes targets for
reducing emissions, creating a regulatory environment favorable to the adoption of clean
technologies in public transport (VOLAN et al ., 2021).
Total Cost of Ownership (TCO) analysis is one of the main factors for assessing the
economic viability of electric buses. This calculation considers not only the cost of purchasing
the vehicle, but also the operating costs, maintenance, charging infrastructure and possible
savings over time (SOUZA; DANTAS, 2020).
Studies show that, despite the high initial cost, electric buses can have a competitive
cost of ownership compared to diesel vehicles when analyzed throughout their useful life,
especially due to fuel savings and reduced maintenance (RODRIGUES; REIS; MACHADO,
2024).
3 METHODOLOGY
The methodology adopted in this study is based on the economic and financial analysis
of the feasibility of implementing electric buses in public transport, using as a reference the
data and calculations present in the study on the Feasibility of Electric Vehicles. The method
includes the comparison of costs between electric and conventional diesel buses, considering
aspects such as energy consumption, maintenance, financing and recharging infrastructure.
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3.1 STUDY APPROACH
This study follows a quantitative approach, based on the Total Cost of Ownership (TCO)
analysis, which evaluates the direct and indirect costs of operating electric buses throughout
their useful life. The TCO calculation involves estimating variables such as:
• Vehicle acquisition cost, including variations due to different models and
manufacturers;
• Cost of charging infrastructure, considering the need to install chargers and possible
power substations;
• Operating costs, such as electricity consumption versus diesel consumption;
• Maintenance costs, including battery replacement and savings on parts and lubricants;
• Impact of financing, considering the interest rates charged for vehicle acquisition.
3.2 DATA USED
The data considered for the analysis include technical and financial information
extracted from the Electric Vehicle Viability report, supplemented by market references and
Brazilian regulations. The main parameters adopted include:
• Energy consumption: Average of 1.2 kWh/km for electric buses and 0.3892 L/km for
diesel buses;
• Cost of electricity: Average rate of R$ 0.9490/kWh, considering off-peak charging;
• Diesel cost: Average of R$4.50/liter;
• Acquisition cost: Electric bus R$ 950,000.00 and diesel bus R$ 600,000.00;
• Recharging infrastructure: Estimated investment of R$295,500.00 per unit;
• Maintenance cost: Electric buses cost 24% less than their diesel counterparts ;
• Financing: Interest rate between 9.17% and 12% per year, with financing of 50% to 80%
of the vehicle value.
3.3 CALCULATION PROCEDURES
To estimate the economic viability of electric buses, the calculation of Net Present Value
(NPV) and discounted Payback will be applied, following the steps below:
1. Determination of cash flows;
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• Estimated revenue from fuel and maintenance savings.
• Expenses with acquisition, electricity and infrastructure.
2. Calculation of initial investment;
• Sum of vehicle acquisition costs and charging infrastructure.
3. Application of the Net Present Value (NPV) formula;
• Using a discount rate of 12% per year, projecting cash flows over 10 years.
4. Discounted Payback Calculation;
• Determination of the time required for the savings generated by electric buses to cover
the initial investment costs.
5. Sensitivity Analysis;
• Assessment of the impact of variations in the price of diesel, cost of electricity and
financing rates on the viability of the project.
4 RESULTS AND DISCUSSION
4.1. PRICE OF ELECTRICITY
The price of electricity is an essential factor in calculating the operating cost of electric
buses. As it is a granted service, its tariff may vary depending on demand and seasonal
variations. According to Souza and Dantas (2020), the tariff adopted is the promotional one,
obtained outside peak hours, which allows companies to benefit from lower costs by recharging
batteries during the early morning hours, in garages (SOUZA; DANTAS, 2020).
In addition to charging in garages, electric buses can be charged along the route,
especially at bus stops, using fast chargers lasting between 30 and 60 seconds. However, this
modality may imply different, potentially higher, rates, depending on the tariff structure
adopted by the electricity concessionaire (SOUZA; DANTAS, 2020).
To calculate the cost of electricity per electric bus, the Technical-Economic Assessment
of Electric Buses in Brazil, carried out by the Energy Research Company (EPE), considered the
use of batteries with a capacity of 200 kWh, charged for four hours at night, using a 50 kW
charger (ICCT, 2019). The cost adopted in the simulations was R$ 0.54/kWh, an estimated
value based on the tariff charged by the distributor Eletropaulo, measured through tariff
exercises of the A4 energy market, according to data from ANEEL.
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• For the study, the tariff base of the distributor CEMIG will be adopted, referring to
subgroup A4 (2.3 kV to 25 kV), considering the yellow flag. This flag reflects a more
realistic scenario, foreseeing small fluctuations in the cost of electricity. The
consumption cost adopted will be R$ 0.9490 per kWh.
The cost of electricity directly impacts the economic viability of electric buses.
Strategies such as the use of fast chargers during the route can speed up operations, but can
also increase fare costs. Fare planning and incentives for the use of renewable energy can
reduce these costs.
4.2. ELECTRIC BUS PURCHASE PRICE:
The production of electric buses in Brazil is still limited, with few manufacturers
operating in the national market. According to Souza and Dantas (2020), the E-bus model ,
from the Brazilian company Eletra , has an approximate cost of R$ 820 thousand . However,
the leasing modality for batteries allows reducing the initial investment by up to 60% , making
the acquisition more accessible for public transport operating companies (SOUZA; DANTAS,
2020).
Another example of a model available on the Brazilian market is the K9, from the
Chinese brand BYD, whose initial cost is R$1 million. This value, however, can be reduced if
the batteries are rented directly from the manufacturer, allowing a 60% reduction in the initial
investment value. With this strategy, the final cost of the electric bus can be close to that of a
conventional Padron LE bus, whose average price is R$400 thousand (GREENPEACE, 2016).
The approach adopted by the Ministry of Industry, Foreign Trade and Services (MDIC)
(2018b) assumes that the price of electric buses in Brazil can be calculated based on a
proportional factor in relation to diesel models. This methodology follows that used by the
California Air Resources Board (CARB), which developed a regulation to encourage the use of
electric buses in public transportation. According to CARB data, the acquisition cost of a
battery-powered electric bus (whether charged in the garage or on the route) is equivalent to
1.75 times that of a conventional diesel model. Thus, considering that a Padron P7 diesel bus
costs around R$600,000, its electric equivalent would have an estimated cost of R$1.05 million
(MDIC, 2018).
The low diffusion of electric buses in Brazil makes it difficult to obtain accurate
estimates of their acquisition cost for municipal applications. However, according to the tariffs
formulated for the city of São Paulo as of January 1, 2020, the price of an electric bus was
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estimated at R$ 718 thousand (SP, 2019). However, this value corresponds to the acquisition
of the vehicle without the battery, which, in this case, is rented and included in the operating
cost.
In recent analyses, a study carried out by the International Council on Clean
Transportation (ICCT) indicated that the total cost of an electric bus, including the battery, can
be 75% higher than that of a diesel bus. Therefore, for comparative purposes, this study adopts
as a reference an average value of R$ 950 thousand for the acquisition of an electric bus, with
variations possible depending on the scenario analyzed (MDIC, 2018).
The high initial cost of electric buses remains one of the main challenges for fleet
electrification. Alternative financing models , such as government subsidies and tax
incentives , are essential to enable this transition, as observed in cities such as Shenzhen
(China) and Santiago (Chile) .
4.3 COST OF ACQUIRING CHARGING INFRASTRUCTURE:
For comparison purposes, given the existing infrastructure for recharging diesel buses,
the cost analysis only considers the installation of the infrastructure required for recharging
electric buses. According to estimates presented by BYD in 2018, the average cost for installing
a charger was approximately R$160,000 (MDIC, 2018).
This value can be compared with data from the California Air Resource Board (CARB),
which indicates an estimated cost of US$50,000 per unit for fast chargers. However, as these
devices are not yet manufactured in Brazil on a large scale, this study adopts as a reference a
cost of R$250,000 per unit, considering the influence of the exchange rate and possible
variations in the market (MDIC, 2018).
It is worth noting that this estimate may be underestimated, as it does not take into
account the need to install electrical substations to increase the charging capacity of the depots.
If a significant number of electric buses need to be supplied simultaneously, additional
investments may be required to ensure the stability of the energy supply, impacting the final
cost of the infrastructure.
Considering the exchange rate as R$5.91, the cost of acquiring the recharging
infrastructure will be R$295,500.00.
The lack of infrastructure is an obstacle to the adoption of electric buses. In countries
where electrification has been successful, such as Norway and China , policies to encourage
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the installation of chargers have been essential. In Brazil, public-private partnerships (PPPs)
can be an alternative to reduce the costs of this investment.
4.4 ELECTRIC BUS FINANCING COST:
In the past decade, BNDES established a program with special conditions for “clean”
buses, allowing the financing of a larger percentage of the asset at reduced interest rates, in
relation to the reference rate of bank deposit certificates (CDI). With the advent of the 2014
crisis, some of these conditions were discontinued. Currently, BNDES (2019) finances buses
for 50% to 80% of the vehicle’s value over 5 years. Rates range from 9.17% to 12% per year,
the variation adopted in this study (EPE, 2020).
Savings on maintenance reinforce the long-term advantage of electric buses. However,
the high cost of the battery and the need for replacements after approximately 8 to 12 years of
use may impact financial viability in the long term.
4.5 ELECTRIC BUS MAINTENANCE COST:
As with diesel buses, the maintenance cost of electric buses includes expenses for the
acquisition and replacement of parts and accessories, as well as the consumption of lubricants.
Additionally, the cost of the recharging infrastructure and the cost of renting or leasing batteries
may be considered, if the company chooses not to purchase them together with the body and
engine (MDIC, 2018).
Electric buses have a maintenance cost 24% lower than that of conventional P7 diesel
models, regardless of the type of recharging adopted, whether at the refueling point or along
the route. Operational tests carried out in Salvador (BA) indicated that the maintenance of
electric buses can be up to 25% cheaper than that of diesel vehicles. According to manufacturers
in the sector, this reduction occurs because the electric engine has only three large components
that require periodic maintenance, while combustion engines have dozens of parts subject to
wear and regular replacement (GREENPEACE, 2016).
Studies conducted by Souza and Dantas (2020) show that the costs of parts and
accessories for electric buses are lower than those for their diesel counterparts, due to the
smaller number of moving parts and the absence of internal combustion, a factor that accelerates
engine wear in combustion vehicles. Applying the average discount of 24% on the cost of parts
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and components for diesel buses, values between R$0.37/km and R$0.42/km are estimated for
the maintenance of electric models (MDIC, 2018).
Although electric motors require less maintenance, lubricants are still consumed, albeit
on a smaller scale. According to data from the city of São Paulo (2019), the average cost of
lubricants in the electric buses in its fleet is estimated at R$0.012/km.
In addition to vehicle maintenance, the operating costs of the charging infrastructure
must be considered. As indicated by SP (2019), the average cost of maintaining the charging
infrastructure is R$0.20/km, although the document does not detail which services are included
in this amount. However, it is estimated that this cost will reduce significantly as more electric
chargers are installed in the same garage, diluting the operating costs. For this reason, the
variation in the cost of the charging infrastructure adopted in the scenarios analyzed is between
R$0.05/km and R$0.20/km.
Therefore, for the present study, the value of R$ 0.63/km was used for the maintenance
cost of electric vehicles.
STEP 1.1: FUEL COST
Diesel (annual):
Cost = Average consumption x Annual mileage x Diesel cost (Eq. 1)
Diesel Cost = (0.3892 l/km) x (79,500 km/year) x (R$ 4.50/l) (Eq. 2)
Diesel Cost = R$ 139,236.30/year (Eq. 3)
Electricity (annual):
Cost = Average consumption x Annual mileage x Cost of electricity (Eq. 4)
Cost of Electricity = (1.2 kWh/km) x (79,500 km/year) x (R$ 0.9490/kWh) (Eq. 5)
Cost of Electricity = R$ 90,534.60/year (Eq. 6)
Considering the average monthly energy consumption as being
(1.2kWh/km*79,500Km/year) / 12, we have an average of 7,950kWh/month.
Electricity reduces operating costs, but its competitiveness depends on the tariff
applied and the availability of renewable energy . The use of solar energy can mitigate this
cost and make electrification more viable.
4.6 SOLAR POWER GENERATION
The projected photovoltaic plant has an installed capacity of 68.4 kWp, consisting of
120 solar panels of 570 W each and a 75 kWp inverter, occupying an area of 4,558 m². The
average monthly generation capacity was estimated at 7,950 kWh, taking into account factors
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such as module efficiency, system losses and the average solar irradiation of the region. This
value corresponds to the average monthly consumption of the electric buses evaluated,
indicating that the plant can fully meet the energy demand of the fleet.
The integration of solar energy makes electrification more sustainable and financially
advantageous. The payback of the solar plant was estimated at 2.2 years , demonstrating a
rapid return on investment and contributing to the reduction of operating costs.
4.7 RETURN ON INVESTMENT (PAYBACK)
The total cost of the solar plant was estimated at R$197,890.00 . To calculate the return
on investment, the cost of electricity of R$0.9490/kWh was considered , which represents the
conventional rate for charging the fleet. With the monthly generation of 7,950 kWh , the
estimated financial savings were R$7,544.55/month , totaling R$90,534.60/year .
Thus, the payback time was calculated as:
Payback = [formula here] (Eq. 7)
Payback = ≈ 2.2 years (Eq. 8)
STEP 1.1: DETERMINE CASH FLOWS ( ):
Cash flows are the difference between operating revenues and expenses.
Revenue: (avoided cost of diesel and maintenance of diesel bus).
Expenses: (maintenance, electricity, and financing costs).
Base data:
Diesel Savings Per Year:
Distance traveled: 79,500 km/year;
Average Diesel consumption: 1.93 km/l;
Diesel price: R$4.50/l;
Savings = 79,500 × (4.50 / 1.93) = R$185,362.69 (Eq. 9)
Maintenance Savings:
Cost difference per km: (0.64 - 0.63) (Eq. 10)
Savings = 79,500 × 0.01 = R$795.00 (Eq. 11)
Cost of Electricity:
Average consumption: 1.2 kWh/km;
Price of electricity: R$0.9490/kWh;
Cost = 79,500 / 1.2 × 0.9 = R$ 62,871.25
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Electric Bus Maintenance:
Cost per km = 79,500 × 0.63 = R$50,085
Total annual cash flow:
FC = R$185,362.69 + R$795.00 - R$62,871.25 - R$50,085.00 = R$73,201.44
STEP 1.2: INITIAL INVESTMENT (III):
Initial investment includes the cost of the bus, infrastructure and photovoltaic plant:
Cost of the bus: R$ 3,000,000.00;
Infrastructure: R$ 295,500.00;
Photovoltaic Plant: R$ 197,890.00;
Total: R$3,493,390.00.
STEP 1.3: APPLY THE NPV FORMULA:
The discount rate is k = 12% (0.12).
The annual cash flow is R$73,201.44 constant for 10 years.
Calculation of the present value of each flow:
(1)
For each year j=1;
Year 1:
Year 2:
Year 3:
Year 4:
Year 5:
Year 6:
Year 7:
Year 8:
Year 9:
Year 10:
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(2)
STEP 1.4: DISCOUNTED PAYBACK
In Discounted Payback, we use the discounted cash flow accumulated until the initial
investment is reached.
Table 1
Accumulated discounted flow per year:
Year
Discounted Flow (R$)
Accumulated (R$)
1
65,358.43
65,358.43
2
58,355.74
123,714.17
3
52,103.34
175,817.51
4
46,520.84
222,338.35
5
41,536.46
263,874.81
6
37,086.13
300,960.94
7
33,112.61
334,073.55
8
29,564.83
363,638.38
9
26,397.17
390,035.56
10
23,568.90
413,604.46
Although operational savings are significant, the need for subsidies to reduce initial
CAPEX is evident. Studies indicate that incentives of up to 50% on the value of electric
vehicles can make electrification financially viable in Brazil.
4.8 APPLYING FOR SUBSIDY
To determine the subsidy amount required for the discounted payback of the electric bus
to occur within 10 years (useful life), it is necessary to adjust the initial investment (CAPEX)
until the net present value of cash flows over the period equals the initial investment.
Initial data:
Annual cash flow : R$ 73,201.44.
Discount rate: 12% or 0.12.
Period: 10 years.
Original CAPEX (Initial Investment): R$ 3,493,390.00.
Calculation of the present value of each flow:
(3)
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For each year j=1;
Year 1:
Year 2:
Year 3:
Year 4:
Year 5:
Year 6:
Year 7:
Year 8:
Year 9:
Year 10:
(4)
Determining the Allowance:
(5)
Financial incentives are essential for operators to adopt electric buses without
compromising their economic sustainability. Programs such as the Green Mobility and
Innovation Program (MOVES) and BNDES financing can play a crucial role in this context.
5 CONCLUSION
The analysis carried out in this study demonstrates that, despite the environmental
benefits and operational efficiency of electric buses, their economic viability in Juiz de Fora
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still presents significant challenges. The high initial acquisition cost and the necessary
investments in charging infrastructure make fleet electrification a financially challenging
process, especially without robust government subsidies.
The results indicate that, in the long term, the savings generated by lower operating and
maintenance costs can offset part of the initial investment. However, the negative Net Present
Value (NPV) and the extended payback indicate that, without financial incentives and well-
structured public policies, the transition may be economically unfeasible in the short term.
The integration of solar energy as a supply source represents a promising strategy to
reduce electricity costs, potentially reducing the annual energy costs of electric buses by up to
88.9% . However, investment in the installation of photovoltaic plants should be considered
within the overall economic feasibility analysis.
Given the challenges identified, it is recommended that public policies be implemented
to promote the electrification of public transport. Some of the main suggested actions include:
• Government subsidies and credit lines : Expansion of BNDES financing programs and
creation of tax incentives for the acquisition of electric buses and charging
infrastructure;
• Differentiated electricity rates : Implementation of reduced rates for charging the fleet
at times of lower energy demand;
• Public-private partnerships (PPPs) : Encouraging collaboration between the public
sector and private companies to enable charging infrastructure and cost sharing;
• Expansion of renewable sources : Encouragement of the installation of solar plants in
garages and terminals to reduce dependence on the conventional electricity grid and
minimize operating costs;
• Regulation of battery recycling : Creation of battery disposal and reuse programs to
minimize environmental impacts and reduce replacement costs.
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
We would like to express our sincere gratitude to the Coordination for the Improvement of
Higher Education Personnel (CAPES) for the financial support provided to carry out this
research. The support provided was essential for the development of this study, allowing the
collection and analysis of data that support our conclusions.
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Furthermore, we extend our gratitude to all the professionals and institutions that, directly or
indirectly, contributed to the execution of this work.
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