NoBull Consumer Pulse Research Weekly Consumer Corporate & Macro Analyses PDF Free Download
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NoBull Consumer Research Weekly: July 25, 2025 nobulleconomics.com
July 25, 2025
U.S. Economy Defies Recession Forecasts
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Cal-Maine 4QFY25: Higher Prices, Specialty Egg Growth & Strategic Expansion
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American Express 2Q25: Focus on Premium, Global Expansion & Stablecoin
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Papa Johns 2025 Concept Report Executive Summary
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Domino’s 2Q25: Strong Quarter Boosted by Parmesan Stuffed Crust Pizza Intro
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Executive Summaries: Subscribe for Full Analyses
UPGRADE: Chipotle Mexican Grill 2Q25: Weak Comps Lead to Stock Decline
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UPGRADE: Red Robin Gourmet Burgers Special Call
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UPGRADE: Netflix 2Q25: FY25 Revenue Guidance Raised Amid Strong Growth
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UPGRADE: Mastercard Special Call: Advancing AI & Blockchain Strategies
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UPGRADE: Coca-Cola 2Q25: Growth Driven by Pricing, Digital Execution
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UPGRADE: PepsiCo 2Q25: Modest Growth Amid Cost Pressure
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UPGRADE: Hilton 2Q25: Unit Growth Benefits from Conversion Strategy
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UPGRADE: United Natural Foods Special Call: Cyberattack Recovery
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UPGRADE: Bubble Monitor: Sector Themes & Weekly Stock Results
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NoBull Consumer Research Weekly: July 25, 2025 nobulleconomics.com
U.S. Economy Defies Recession Forecasts
According to an insightful article by economist Daniel Lacalle, the U.S. economy is performing
stronger than expected, benefiting from fiscal discipline, tax cuts & deregulation, which is
driving private sector growth that is poised to handily exceed pessimistic forecasts from
Keynesians who maintain that economic growth is largely a function of government spending.
Key Points
• While analysts predicted that high inflation, interest rates & deficits would cause a 2025 recession, the U.S.
economy remains resilient with improving fundamentals.
• The 1Q GDP contraction (-0.5%) was driven by lower government spending & higher imports, not private
sector weakness.
• 2Q forecasts are now stronger, with Trading Economics projecting up +3.5%, Atlanta Fed GDPNow up
+2.6% & Consensus (combined expectation of most analysts) up +2.1% (up from +1.3%).
• Key drivers for the 2Q forecast include: wage growth outpacing inflation; +7.6% rise in fixed investments
(businesses spending more on long-term assets); tariff-related import front-loading; & stronger exports.
• Inflation expectations are declining: the 1-year expectation fell to 3% (lowest in 5 months); CPI was nearly
flat +0.1% in May m/m; and June is projected to be up only +0.23% m/m & +1.7% y/y.
• Gasoline prices are down -12%, fuel oil down -8.6% & shelter inflation has moderated to +3.9%.
• The U.S. government reported a $27B surplus in June, defying expectations for a -$40B deficit. This was
driven by: a sharp -$187B drop in spending; a surge in customs duties to $27B (revenue from tariffs on
imported goods); & a +13% increase in tax receipts.
• The 2026 federal budget proposes cutting non-defense discretionary spending by -$163B (a -23%
reduction), bringing it to the lowest level since 2017.
• Although the year-to-date deficit remains high at $1.34T, it is trending downward due to recent monthly
surpluses & tighter spending controls.
Source: https://app.hedgeye.com/insights/168736-how-keynesians-got-the-u-s-economy-wrong-again
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NoBull Consumer Research Weekly: July 25, 2025 nobulleconomics.com
Cal-Maine 4QFY25: Higher Prices, Specialty Egg Growth & Strategic
Expansion
Cal-Maine posted robust FY25 results driven by a +55% increase in egg prices & a +9% rise in
volumes, supported by strategic acquisitions like Echo Lake Foods to diversify into prepared
foods. Specialty eggs hit record sales, accounting for 39.1% of total 4Q volume, while
conventional egg prices surged above specialty due to HPAI-driven supply constraints. Feed
cost moderation & cost control helped maintain margins as the company expands production
capacity, strengthens biosecurity & targets growth across retail, QSR & foodservice channels.
Cal-Maine Foods, Inc. is the largest producer & distributor of fresh shell eggs in the U.S.
Insights
• Persistent supply disruptions from avian influenza (HPAI) continue to impact the U.S. poultry industry,
reducing egg supply & elevating market prices.
• Consumer demand for egg & egg products remains strong, particularly during peak consumption
periods like Easter, despite higher prices.
• Feed ingredient costs have moderated compared to prior-year inflationary peaks, supporting farm
production stability.
• HPAI virus in dairy cattle, global wild bird infections, & migration-related outbreaks continue to represent
significant risks for the egg industry.
Positioning
• Cal-Maine sold 311.4MM dozen eggs in 4Q (+9%) & 1.2B dozen during FY25 (+12%), supported by
organic growth & strategic acquisitions such as Echo Lake Foods (leading U.S. manufacturer of prepared
egg & breakfast products), which helps the company to diversify into prepared foods.
• Sales of specialty eggs (cage-free, organic, pasture-raised) reached a record 121.8MM dozen in 4Q (+16%)
& accounted for 39.1% of total volume, reinforcing the company’s premium positioning.
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NoBull Consumer Research Weekly: July 25, 2025 nobulleconomics.com
• 4Q net average selling price increased +55% to $3.05/dozen. Conventional eggs are currently more
expensive than specialty eggs due to market dynamics caused by the HPAI outbreak.
• Feed costs declined -2.2% to $0.493/dozen, supporting margins.
• The expansion of shell egg production capacity, specialty offerings & prepared food products is designed to
capture growth across retail, QSR & foodservice.
• The company will continue to invest in biosecurity & supply reliability to mitigate HPAI exposure.
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NoBull Consumer Research Weekly: July 25, 2025 nobulleconomics.com
American Express 2Q25: Focus on Premium, Global Expansion &
Stablecoin
American Express is reinforcing its leadership in premium cards with product refreshes,
exclusive experiences & strategic partnerships, while targeting younger consumers & expanding
internationally. The company is also exploring multi-rail payment solutions, including
stablecoin capabilities, for SMBs & cross-border use cases, ensuring flexibility & long-term
growth in a rapidly evolving payment landscape.
Insights
• U.S. consumer spending remains resilient despite macro uncertainty, with steady goods & services
demand and only modest softening for T&E (travel & entertainment).
• Premium card adoption is accelerating globally, driven by younger cohorts (Millennials & Gen Z) and a
shift in demand from cashback to experiential & lifestyle-based rewards.
• Stablecoins are gaining regulatory traction for cross-border transactions but remain limited by liquidity
constraints & off-ramp requirements. They will complement, not replace, traditional payment rails.
• International markets present strong long-term growth opportunities due to low premium penetration &
rising affluence in developing countries.
Positioning
• AmEx continues to strengthen its premium positioning with: regular product refresh cycles; enhanced
benefits; expanded partnerships; & the addition of differentiated experiences such as access to 27,000 dining
venues via Resty/Tock (restaurant reservation & hospitality platforms), an exclusive global lounge network
& premium hotel perks.
• The company is focused on enriching its value proposition by delivering offerings in travel, dining &
lifestyle, and strategic partnerships that fund benefits to attract & retain high-spending customers.
• AmEx emphasizes experiences like exclusive events, sports, entertainment access & luxury hospitality
services.
• The company is leveraging advanced analytics, enterprise technology & risk management systems to
optimize customer engagement, enhance credit risk controls & support scalable growth in premium
products.
• AmEx is prioritizing international growth in key markets with improved merchant coverage, tailored
product offerings & by leveraging its brand equity to capture premium demand in high-growth regions.
• The company is evolving its payment ecosystems by exploring stablecoin-related partnerships (Coinbase) for
future cross-border & SMB (small & medium business) payment solutions, reinforcing its commitment to
multi-rail flexibility (multiple ways to move money).
• AmEx is targeting small business & commercial segments through enhanced lending solutions, premium
service offerings & value-added payment capabilities to drive long-term growth.
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NoBull Consumer Research Weekly: July 25, 2025 nobulleconomics.com
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NoBull Consumer Research Weekly: July 25, 2025 nobulleconomics.com
Papa Johns 2025
Executive Summary
Papa Johns’ relatively new management team has a good plan to restore this iconic pizza chain back to its long
standing “Better Ingredients. Better Pizza. Papa Johns” positioning. However, while the chain is executing
around all the fundamentals, the problem remains that this is a quality player in a value dominated segment
during a period when core lower-income pizza customers are struggling financially. Management rightly points
out that while customers may not always pay up for quality, it represents a key attribute that can represent a tie
breaker in consumer purchase decisions. Of course, this is only true if super stressed low-income consumers are
not solely focused on finding the lowest price. In conclusion, Papa Johns is well positioned to restore its former
glory once the economy strengthens sufficiently for its customers to make purchase decisions around brand
merit rather than solely menu prices.
Order Report on nobulleconomics.com
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NoBull Consumer Research Weekly: July 25, 2025 nobulleconomics.com
Domino’s Pizza, Inc. 2Q25: Strong Quarter Boosted by Parmesan
Stuffed Crust Pizza Intro
Domino’s strong 2Q results reflected its strong value positioning, menu innovation, digital
strength & a strengthening economy which supports delivery. Healthy FY25 guidance is
supported by consumer value seeking (which benefits Domino’s) & its DoorDash partnership
which is now completely rolled out. An e-commerce upgrade planned for later this year will
enhance the chain’s digital capabilities, helping it stay ahead of the curve.
Insights
• QSR is marked by consumers’ desire for value (which favors Domino’s).
• Although the pizza segment has been growing +1% to +2% a year for many years, 1H25 was flat (price
increases offset by traffic declines).
• Management considers order count growth as more important than ticket growth.
Positioning
• Positioning benefits from: the strongest unit economics in QSR pizza; the largest advertising budget in QSR
pizza; 85% digital mix; a fast-growing rewards program; exposure to the largest delivery aggregators
(DoorDash & Uber Eats); and top-tier supply chain management.
• 2Q25 delivery & carryout comps were both positive as the chain continues to gain share.
• Its Parmesan Stuffed Crust pizza intro during the quarter helped drive incremental customer acquisition &
its mix was in line with company estimates. The brand charges an extra +$4 when a new product is included
in its mix & match deal.
• Management plans 2 new product launches per year going forward.
• Domino’s is now fully integrated with DoorDash, with marketing efforts expected on the platform later this
year.
• New e-commerce platform rollout is expected later in the year (including a revamped website & app).
• Lower redemption thresholds for its rewards program have driven higher average checks (customers use
rewards to add side items to their orders).
• 36 company-owned Maryland locations were refranchised to a veteran operator of 20+ years.
• 30 net news stores were added in the U.S. during 2Q25 with 175 expected for the full year.
Performance Benchmarking & Guidance
• 2Q25 comps increased +3.4% y/y (+5.8% carryout & +1.5% delivery), supported by the launch of its
Parmesan Stuffed Crust pizza, which drove positive transactions.
• Average check increased +1.4% (premium Parmesan Stuffed Crust pizza boost was partially offset by a
higher carryout mix).
• FY25 comps are projected to increase by +3%, with a stronger 2H25 anticipated due to the timing of key
brand initiatives (including the full integration of DoorDash across the system).
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NoBull Consumer Research Weekly: July 25, 2025 nobulleconomics.com
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NoBull Consumer Research Weekly: July 25, 2025 nobulleconomics.com
Subscribe at NoBullEconomics.com for Full Analyses
Chipotle Mexican Grill 2Q25: Weak Comps Lead to Stock Decline
Chipotle posted 2Q sales growth of +3%, but comps fell -4% amid consumer weakness, value-
driven competition & seasonal dynamics. Operational initiatives (produce slicer rollout & high-
efficiency equipment), menu innovation (Chipotle Honey Chicken & Adobo Ranch), and digital
engagement (35.5% digital sales mix & Summer of Extras rewards campaign) are central to its
recovery strategy. FY25 comps were cut to flat, with a 2H25 improvement expected based on
easing headwinds, LTOs & loyalty engagement. A -12% post-earnings share decline was
attributed to weak traffic, margin pressure & its downward guidance revision.
Red Robin Gourmet Burgers Special Call
Red Robin outlined its First Choice Plan, a 5-pillar strategy focused on traffic recovery, cost
optimization, restaurant upgrades & cultural transformation. The plan includes: targeted
marketing efforts; value deals like the $9.99 Big Yummm offer; refranchising select stores to
reduce debt; & leveraging data analytics for personalized engagement. While 2Q comps are
expected to decline by -4%, adjusted EBITDA should exceed prior guidance, driven by
improved labor efficiency & lower commodity costs.
Netflix 2Q25: FY25 Revenue Guidance Raised Amid Strong Growth
Netflix increased its FY revenue guidance by +$1B to $44.8B to $45.2B (+13% to +14%),
citing FX tailwinds, accelerating member growth & ad sales, which are expected to double this
year. The company is rolling out a redesigned UI with real-time personalization while deploying
AI for forecasting, content recommendations & visual effects. AI will also help cut production
costs while speeding up production timelines by 10x. Strategic priorities include: expanding
global hit content; scaling games; launching live events; & forming partnerships to accelerate
local content development.
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NoBull Consumer Research Weekly: July 25, 2025 nobulleconomics.com
Mastercard Special Call: Advancing AI & Blockchain Strategies
Mastercard is embracing next-gen payment tech with Agent Pay, enabling secure AI-driven
transactions through partnerships with Microsoft, OpenAI & others while also preparing for AI-
powered B2B automation using virtual cards, tokenized payments & data insights. The
company is integrating stablecoins into its network to facilitate global spending & transfers with
support from its partnerships with Paxos, Circle & Fiserv.
Coca-Cola 2Q25: Growth Driven by Pricing, Digital Execution &
Premiumization
Coke posted +5% y/y organic revenue growth in 2Q, driven by +6% price/mix which offset a -
1% dip in unit case volume. Comp gross margin expanded +80 bps & operating margin
expanded +190 bps, supported by productivity gains & favorable mix. The company reaffirmed
its FY25 organic revenue guidance of +5% to +6%, driven by pricing actions, premium product
innovations (Coca-Cola Cane Sugar, Sprite + Tea) & expanding away-from-home channels.
Strategic priorities include accelerating AI-driven pricing tools, scaling affordability-focused
packs in pressured markets & leveraging global marketing platforms (Share a Coke & Memory
Maker) to sustain engagement.
PepsiCo 2Q25: Modest Growth Amid Cost Pressure
PepsiCo posted +1% 2Q revenue growth (organic +2.1%) as pricing, international strength &
improved away-from-home consumption offset slight volume declines in key North America
segments. Going forward strategy centers around: productivity initiatives; brand relaunches
(Lay’s, Tostitos); innovation in no-sugar colas & functional beverages; and a focus on
permissible snacks. Margins compressed, reflecting commodity inflation, tariff-driven
aluminum costs, and higher A&M (advertising & marketing) spend partially mitigated by
pricing, mix & efficiency gains.
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NoBull Consumer Research Weekly: July 25, 2025 nobulleconomics.com
Hilton 2Q25: Unit Growth Benefits from Conversion Strategy
Hilton reported robust 2Q development momentum with +7.5% net unit growth, +510,000
rooms in its pipeline & continued expansion of its luxury, lifestyle & midscale conversion
brands like Spark. While system-wide RevPAR declined -0.5% due to U.S. & China softness,
strong Middle East, Africa & APAC ex-China performance, combined with rising loyalty
membership & disciplined cost management, supported a +10% adjusted EBITDA increase.
FY25 RevPAR is expected to be flat to up +2%, driven by global demand recovery & a late-
year improvement in corporate & group travel.
United Natural Foods Special Call: Cyberattack Recovery
UNFI quickly contained a cyberattack, restoring key systems within 2 weeks, while maintaining
strong customer & supplier collaboration. FY25 net sales are expected to rise +4.3%, despite
the $350M to $400MM in lost sales due to the cyberattack & adjusted EBITDA guidance is up
+8%.
Bubble Monitor: Sector Themes & Weekly Stock Results
• Current economic conditions remain favorable.
• We expect 2Q25 restaurant comp trends to improve relative to 1Q.
• Online shopping continues to gain momentum as evidenced by the strong top-line growth generated by
retailer e commerce channels, Amazon, and DoorDash.
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NoBull Consumer Research Weekly: July 25, 2025 nobulleconomics.com
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