Rischi climatici e adattamento PDF Free Download
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Eurac Research
Center for Climate Change and Transformation
Drususallee 1
39100 Bozen, Italien
+39 0471 055 700
climate.change@eurac.edu
www.eurac.edu
DOI: https://doi.org/10.57749/q8y8-tv70
Autrici/Autori: Marc Zebisch, Lydia Pedoth, Michael Pörnbacher, Kathrin Renner, Uta Fritsch, Mariachiara Alberton,
Giacomo Bertoldi, Jakob Bisignano (IRE), Philipp Corradini, Alice Crespi, Chiara Crippa, Viola Ducati, Frederik Eisendle,
Andreas Hilpold, Christian Hoffmann, Clara Horvath, Verena Kircher, Georg Lun (IRE), Federica Maino, Steffi Misconel,
Nikolaus Obojes, Andrea Omizzolo, Chiara Pellegrini, Urban Perkmann (IRE), Matteo Giacomo Prina, Giulia Roveri,
Wolfram Sparber, Giacomo Strapazzon, Felix Thaler
Coordinamento scientifico: Marc Zebisch
Project Management: Lydia Pedoth
Cabina di regia della Provincia autonoma di Bolzano – Alto Adige: Willigis Gallmetzer, Alice Labadini, Barbara Raffl,
Francesca Schir, Walter Polla, Christian Walcher, Michela Morandini, Fabrizio Oliver, Umberto Simone, Flavio Ruffini,
Giulia Morosetti, Klaus Egger, Anna Toggenburg, Anna Tezzele
Redazione: Valentina Bergonzi, Laura Defranceschi
Traduzioni: Dal tedesco: Studio Traduc, Bolzano – Cristina Prono
Grafica: Alessandra Stefanut
Illustrazioni: Silke de Vivo
Redazione immagini: Annelie Bortolotti
Foto di copertina: Agenzia per la Protezione civile - Provincia autonoma di Bolzano
© Eurac Research, 2025
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mons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), che permette il riutilizzo, la condivisione, la modifica, la distribuzione e la riproduzione con
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terzi con nessun mezzo né utilizzate in qualsiasi altro modo senza l‘autorizzazione dei rispettivi autori/titolari dei diritti.
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1.1 Ambito e finalità ......................................................................................................................... 6
1.2 Quadro metodologico e flusso di lavoro ..................................................................................... 9
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6 7389+38,$%+!:;+83%+:+<!+(&';'=+3!,!>,&+:';+!!!!!!!$3%)&3;+!------------------------------------------------------!"?
3.1 Cosa sappiamo dal Rapporto sul clima Alto Adige 2018 ........................................................... 15
3.2 Aggiornamenti: dati e metodi ................................................................................................... 16
3.3 Aggiornamenti: risultati ............................................................................................................ 18
3.4 Processi idrologici ..................................................................................................................... 23
3.5 Movimenti di massa .................................................................................................................. 30
5 @$3;+1+!(,+!&+1:A+!:;+83%+:+!,!$,:,11+%B!(+!!3(3%%38,$%'!-------------------------------------------------------!6?
4.1 Gestione delle acque ................................................................................................................. 38
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4.2 Biodiversità ............................................................................................................................... 44
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4.3 Agricoltura ................................................................................................................................ 52
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4.4 Gestione forestale ..................................................................................................................... 61
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4.5 Salute ........................................................................................................................................ 71
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4.6 Turismo ..................................................................................................................................... 78
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4.7 Insediamenti, infrastrutture, patrimonio culturale ................................................................... 83
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4.8
Energia ...................................................................................................................................... 89
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4.9 Economia .................................................................................................................................. 99
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4.10 Temi intersettoriali ................................................................................................................. 105
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5.1 L’adattamento ai cambiamenti climatici nel quadro della governance multilivello ............... 109
5.2 Il quadro provinciale: poteri legislativi e amministrativi della Provincia autonoma di Bolzano ...
................................................................................................................................................ 111
5.3 Analisi delle politiche della Provincia autonoma di Bolzano rilevanti per l’adattamento ....... 112
5.4 Strategie e legislazione settoriali rilevanti per l’adattamento – analisi settoriale ................. 113
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5.5 Mappatura degli stakeholder ................................................................................................. 126
. 03;)%3*+'$,!(,;!&+1:A+'!,!1+$%,1+!----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------!"64
6.1 Valutazione del rischio ............................................................................................................ 130
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6.2 Risultati dell’urgenza della necessità di intervento per campo d’azione ................................ 133
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6.3 Sintesi ...................................................................................................................................... 142
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7.1 Strategie di adattamento prioritarie e campi d’azione ........................................................... 146
7.2 Principi intersettoriali per una strategia di adattamento ....................................................... 149
7.3 Raccomandazione per lo sviluppo di piani di adattamento dettagliati .................................. 153
7.4 Raccomandazioni specifiche per ogni settore ......................................................................... 157
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H G+$=&3*+38,$%+!-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------!"EE
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1 Introduzione
Autore: Marc Zebisch
"
1.1
Ambito e finalità
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"
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Figura 1: Impatto e rischio a cascata dai sistemi naturali a quelli fisici e sociali sull'esempio dell'Alto Adige. Lo spes-
sore delle frecce rappresenta schematicamente l'importanza dell'interazione
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Energia
Turismo
Impatti
e rischi climatici
diretti
Eetti e rischi
a cascata
Fattori di rischio non climatici
Aumento della vulnerabilità e dell'esposizione
Fattori di rischio climatici
Aumento dei pericoli legati al clima
Ondate di calore e
periodi di siccità più
intensi, più lunghi e più
frequenti
Precipitazioni intense,
grandine, neve bagnata
e temporali più intensi
Degrado e
frammentazione
degli ecosistemi e
delle loro funzioni
Aumento dell'espo-
sizione legato
all'incremento del
turismo
Mancanza di esperienza
e conoscenza dell'adat-
tamento al clima
Mancanza di cooper-
azione (orizzontale e
verticale)
Impatti climatici esterni e
conseguenze di altre crisi sulle
catene di approvvigionamento
e sull'economia globale
Aumento del consumo di acqua
Aumento del consumo di suolo,
impermeabilizzazione, nuovi edici e
infrastrutture
Aumento delle disuguaglianze
sociali, gruppi vulnerabili,
invecchiamento della popolazione
Mancata considerazione dell'adattamento ai
cambiamenti climatici negli strumenti politici,
mancanza di impegno, risorse insucienti
Cambiamento climatico generale:
estati più calde e secche;
inverni più umidi e miti
Ecosistemi
Salute
Agricoltura +
gestione forestale Insediamento
+ infrastruttura
Pericoli naturali
(ad esempio, smottamenti,
movimenti di massa,
inondazioni, ecc.)
Economia + Finanza
Neve+ghiaccio, acqua
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" "
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"
1.2
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1-;.*0"1;*"8*1/A*"/5*(6-*/*".+55Q'7+,O*6"+;80>+6".+55Q6()*+,-+"GW;80>+6,"W,4*80,(+,-"'7+,/YH"!9!$J%"
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"
"
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Figura 2: Quadro metodologico, processo e fonti di conoscenza
"
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"
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-+8(*,*".*"-861E08(6O*0,+"10/*65+"+."+/0507*/6%"
Analisi del rischio climatico
Valutazione dei dati e scenari
climatici, e degli impatti
climatici diretti
Analisi dei rischi climatici per i
singoli campi dʼazione,
identicazione dei rischi chiave
e delle opzioni di adattamento
Valutazione del rischio climatico
Valutazione della gravità dei
principali rischi, dellʼadegua-
tezza degli attuali strumenti
politici e della necessità
immediata di intervento
Dati e scenari
climatici,
analisi
Stakeholder ed
esperti (workshop)
Analisi di leggi e strumenti,
Feedback degli esperti
Sintesi:
Risultati delle analisi, input
e feedback degli esperti,
raccomandazioni dei piani
di adattamento italiani e
austriaci
Analisi, esperti
e stakeholder
Autori ed esperti
Analisi degli stakeholder
Identicazione degli stakeholder di riferimento e
delle loro competenze
Visione Alto Adige 2040
Visione per un Alto Adige resiliente al clima,
neutrale dal punto di vista climatico, sostenibile e
socialmente equo
Analizzare gli strumenti politici esistenti
e le loro debolezze nel campo dellʼadattamento al
clima
Raccomandazioni per lʼadozione di strategie
strumenti politici e misure (generali e per singoli
campi d'azione)
&9"
"
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1-;.*0%"
"
Bibliografia
– Balas, M., Lexer, W., Neumann, H., Offenzeller J.M., Völler, S., Vollgruber, D., 2024. Die Österreichische Strategie zur Anpas-
sung an den Klimawandel. Bundesministerium für Klimaschutz, Umwelt, Energie, Mobilität, Innovation und Technologie,
Wien, Österreich.
– European Environment Agency, 2024. European climate risk assessment: executive summary. Publications Office, LU.
– MASE, 2023. PNACC. Ministro dell’ambiente e della sicurezza energetica.
– UNDRR, 2022. Technical Guidance on Comprehensive Risk Assessment and Planning in the Context of Climate Change.
United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction.
– Zebisch, M., Terzi, S., Pittore, M., Renner, K., Schneiderbauer, S., 2022. Climate Impact Chains—A Conceptual Modelling Ap-
proach for Climate Risk Assessment in the Context of Adaptation Planning, in: Climate Adaptation Modelling, Springer Cli-
mate. Springer International Publishing, Cham, pp. 217–224. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-86211-4_25
– Zebisch, M., Vaccaro, R., Niedrist, G., Schneiderbauer, S., Streifeneder, T., WeiГџ, M.L., Troi, A., Renner, K., Pedoth, L., Baum-
gartner, B., Bergonzi, V., 2018. Rapporto sul clima 2018. Bolzano: Eurac Research.
– Zebisch, M., Renner, K., Pittore, M., Fritsch, U., Fruchter S.R., Kienberger, S., Schinko, T., Sparkes, E., Hagenlocher, M., Schnei-
derbauer, S. and Delves, J.L. (2023). Climate Risk Sourcebook. Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ)
GmbH. Bonn.
"
&&"
"
2 Visione futura 2040
Autrici e autore: Federica Maino, Lydia Pedoth, Michael Pörnbacher
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"
Bibliografia
– Poli, R., 2017: STRATEGIE DI FUTURO IN CLASSE Esperienze, metodi, esercizi. IPRASE - Istituto Provinciale per la Ricerca e la
Sperimentazione Educativa.
– Robinson, J.B., 1982: Energy backcasting A proposed method of policy analysis - Energy Policy, Vol. 10, Issue 4, P. 337-344
"
"
" "
&$"
"
Corre l’anno 2040…
l'Alto Adige
ha messo in
campo soluzioni e
processi capaci di
arontare i rischi climatici
e la qualità di vita è
signicativamente migliorata!
"
&:"
"
3 Cambiamenti climatici, idrologia e pericoli
naturali
Autrici e autore: Alice Crespi, Giacomo Bertoldi, Viola Ducati, Chiara Crippa
3.1
Cosa sappiamo dal Rapporto sul clima Alto Adige 2018
L65"&2??"65"!9&:H"5Q'5-0"'.*7+"A6"8+7*1-86-0";,"6;(+,-0".*"-+(>+86-;86"(+.*6".*"/*8/6"r"!H!"]C"*,"+1-6-+"
+"r"9HB"]C"*,"*,4+8,0"1;556")61+".+55+"011+846O*0,*".*"1+*"1-6O*0,*"(+-+080507*/A+"E08,*-+"3EE*/*0"(+-+080_
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8+7*1-86-*"6"M05O6,0"+"M8+116,0,+".04+"56"-+(>+86-;86"(+.*6"+1-*46"["6;(+,-6-6".*"/*8/6"#"]C"+"1*"10,0"
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" "
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"
3.2
Aggiornamenti: dati e metodi
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/088+77+8+"*"46508*".+*"(0.+55*"1;556")61+".+55+"011+846O*0,*"78*75*6-+"(6">8+1+846,.0,+"*5"-8+,."1;5"5;,70"
>+8*0.0"GC6,,0,"+-"65%H"!9&:J%"Z;+1-0">611677*0">+8(+--+".*"8*.;88+"75*"+8808*"1*1-+(6-*/*">8+1+,-*",+55+"
1*(;56O*0,*"(0.+55*1-*/A+"+"*,"56876"(*1;86".04;-*"6556"5*(*-6-6"8*105;O*0,+"1>6O*65+".+*"(0.+55*H"/A+",0,"
E08,*1/+";,Q6.+7;6-6"86>>8+1+,-6O*0,+".+55+"/686--+8*1-*/A+"/5*(6-*/A+"50/65*H"10>86--;--0"*,"68++"(0,_
-6,+".655Q080786E*6"/0(>5+116%"
bQ*,1*+(+".+*"(0.+55*"GensembleJ"*,/5;.+"&:".*4+81*"(0.+55*">+8"56"-+(>+86-;86"+"&&".*4+81*"(0.+55*">+8"56"
>8+/*>*-6O*0,+H">+8"+,-86()*"75*"1/+,68*%"
b+"011+846O*0,*"+"5+">80*+O*0,*"6"&"l("10,0"1-6-+";16-+">+8"/65/0568+"+"6,65*OO68+".*4+81*"*,.*/6-08*"/5*(6_
-*/*H"65/;,*"7*N"/0,1*.+86-*",+5"T6>>08-0".+5"!9&B%"3,0".+*"46,-677*"0EE+8-*".6*".6-*"1>6O*65*OO6-*"["56">011*_
)*5*-N".*"+56)0868+"(6>>+"+".*".*EE+8+,O*68+"*"8*1;5-6-*H">+8"+1+(>*0">+8"68++"/0(;,65*"0"E61/+".*"R;0-6%"b6"
5*1-6".+75*"*,.*/6-08*"/0,1*.+86-*"["8*>08-6-6"*,"U6)+556"&%"b+"+56)086O*0,*">+8"65/;,*"*,.*/6-08*"10,0".*1>0_
,*)*5*"1;556">*6--6E08(6".*"W;86/"T+1+68/A">+8"*5"S0,*-08677*0".+*"/6()*6(+,-*"/5*(6-*/*"*,"'5-0"'.*7+"
GA-->1DIIjjj%+;86/%+.;I*-I.6-6_*,_6/-*0,I(0,*-08677*0_.+*_/6()*6(+,-*_/5*(6-*/*J%"
"
Tabella 1: lista degli indicatori climatici considerati e loro descrizione
"
Indicatore
Descrizione
Temperatura media annuale
Media annuale della temperatura media giornaliera
Temperatura media stagionale
Media della temperatura giornaliera in estate (da giugno ad agosto) e inverno
(da dicembre a febbraio)
Precipitazione totale annuale
Cumulata annuale della precipitazione giornaliera
Precipitazione totale stagionale
Cumulata della precipitazione giornaliera su sei mesi estivi (da aprile a set-
tembre) e su sei mesi invernali (da ottobre a marzo)
Notti tropicali
Totale dei giorni in un anno con temperatura minima >= 20 °C
Ondate di calore
Numero di giorni in un anno in periodi di almeno sei giorni consecutivi in cui
la temperatura massima rimane superiore al 90° percentile calcolato su una
finestra di cinque giorni centrata sul giorno in esame e sul periodo di riferi-
mento
Giorni di gelo
Totale dei giorni in un anno in cui la temperatura minima < 0 °C
Gradi giorno di raffrescamento
Somma dello scarto giornaliero tra le temperature e una temperatura di so-
glia (22 °C) da aprile a settembre
Massimo annuale delle precipita-
zioni giornaliere
Valore massimo delle precipitazioni giornaliere registrate in un anno
Totale annuale delle precipita-
zioni intense
Somma annuale delle precipitazioni giornaliere che superano il 95° percentile
calcolato sul periodo di riferimento e sui soli giorni piovosi (> 1 mm)
&K"
"
Frequenza annuale delle precipi-
tazioni intense
Numero dei giorni in un anno in cui la precipitazione è superiore al 95° per-
centile calcolato sul periodo di riferimento e sui giorni piovosi (> 1 mm)
Intensità media della precipita-
zione giornaliera
Media della precipitazione giornaliera per i soli giorni piovosi (> 1 mm)
Durata dei periodi secchi
Durata massima annuale dei periodi consecutivi senza pioggia
SPI
Scarti normalizzati delle precipitazioni cumulate su un certo periodo (per
esempio 12 mesi) rispetto ai valori medi di riferimento
SPEI
Scarti normalizzati del bilancio tra precipitazione ed evapotraspirazione po-
tenziale cumulato su un certo periodo (per esempio 12 mesi) rispetto ai valori
medi di riferimento
"
\+5"1+7;*-0"5+"468*6O*0,*"E;-;8+"10,0"1-6-+"/65/056-+">+8"*5")8+4+"-+8(*,+"G!9!&"a"!9$9J"+"(+.*0"-+8(*,+"
G!9$&"a"!9?9J"8*1>+--0"65">+8*0.0".*"8*E+8*(+,-0"&2B&"a"!9&9%"P"46508*"8*>08-6-*"1*"8*E+8*1/0,0"6556"(+.*6,6"
.+55Q*,1*+(+".+55+"1*(;56O*0,*%"V5*"1/+,68*"TC@"$%:"+"TC@"B%:"10,0"/0,E80,-6)*5*",+5")8+4+"-+8(*,+"+""
(01-86,0".*EE+8+,O+"(0.+1-+"1050",+5"(+.*0"-+8(*,+%"@+8"*"8*1;5-6-*"8+56-*4*"65"!9!&"a"!9$9",0,"4*+,+".*_
1-*,-0"50"1/+,68*0H"(+,-8+"TC@"B%:">;h"+11+8+"/0,1*.+86-0";,"5*(*-+"(611*(0">+8"5+">80*+O*0,*"65"!9?9%"
Z;6,.0",0,".*4+816(+,-+"1>+/*E*/6-0H"*"46508*"8*>08-6-*"86>>8+1+,-6,0"56"(+.*6"1>6O*65+"1;"-;--0"5Q'5-0"
'.*7+%"
" "
&B"
"
3.3
Aggiornamenti: risultati
Temperatura media
L65"&2B9"65"!9!!H"5Q'5-0"'.*7+"A6"8+7*1-86-0";,"6;(+,-0"1*7,*E*/6-*40".+556"%,8>,&3%)&3!8,(+3!3$$)3;,"
.*"/*8/6"!"]CH"/0,";,"-8+,.".*"/*8/6"r9H:"]C"65".+/+,,*0%"P5"!9!!"["1-6-0"5Q6,,0">*`"/65.0".65"&2B9H"/0,"
;,Q6,0(65*6".*"/*8/6"r&H2"]C"8*1>+--0"6556"(+.*6"-8+,-+,,65+"&2B&_!9&9%"P,05-8+H"5+"%,8>,&3%)&,!8,(+,!
,1%+D,!,!+$D,&$3;+"A6,,0"1;)*-0";,"1*7,*E*/6-*40"6;(+,-0H"/0,"r9H?"]C"+"r9H#"]C"65".+/+,,*0H"8*1>+--*46_
(+,-+%
@+8"*5"E;-;80"6")8+4+"-+8(*,+"G!9!&_!9$9JH"1*">8+4+.+";,";5-+8*08+"6;(+,-0".+556"-+(>+86-;86"(+.*6"6,_
,;65+".*"/*8/6"&"]C"*,"+,-86()*"75*"1/+,68*H"(+,-8+H">+8"*5"E;-;80"6"(+.*0"-+8(*,+"G!9$&_!9?9JH"56">8+4*_
1*0,+"468*6"-86"r&H:"]C"GTC@"$%:J"+"r!"]C"GTC@"B%:J"8*1>+--0"65"&2B&_!9&9"G<*7;86"#J%"bQ*,1*+(+".+*"(0.+55*"
8*>08-6"*,/8+(+,-*"(+.*"/0,E80,-6)*5*">+8"5+"-+(>+86-;8+"(+.*+"*,"+1-6-+"+"*,4+8,0%""
"
"
Figura 3: Proiezioni climatiche delle anomalie di temperatura media annuale in Alto Adige rispetto alla media del
trentennio 1981 a"2010 (i valori annuali sono filtrati mediante una media mobile su dieci anni). La linea centrale
rappresenta la mediana dei modelli, mentre le aree colorate si estendono dal 5 al 95 percentile delle proiezioni
"
Estremi di temperatura
P5",;(+80".*"7*08,*"/686--+8*OO6-*".6"'$(3%,!(+!:3;'&,"[">*`"/A+"86..0>>*6-0".65"&2B9"6"077*%"<*,0"6"077*H"*5"
!9&:"["1-6-0"5Q6,,0"/0,"*5"(677*08",;(+80".*"7*08,*"*,-+8+116-*".6"0,.6-+".*"/6508+H"1+7;*-0".65"!99#%"\+5"
E;-;80"6")8+4+"-+8(*,+"G!9!&"a"!9$9JH">0-8+))+80"4+8*E*/681*"&:"7*08,*"*,">*`".*"0,.6-+".*"/6508+"8*1>+--0"
65"&2B&_!9&9H"+H">+8"*5"E;-;80"6"(+.*0"-+8(*,+"G!9$&"a"!9?9JH"1*">8+4+.0,0"(+.*6(+,-+"/*8/6"#9"GTC@"
$%:J"+"$9"GTC@"B%:J"7*08,*".*"0,.6-+".*"/6508+"655Q6,,0%"
L65"&2B9"65"!9!!H"1*"["8+7*1-86-0";,"6;(+,-0".*"/*8/6"/*,R;+"$'%%+!%&'>+:3;+"*,";,"6,,0",+55+"68++"6"R;0-+"
*,E+8*08*"6":99"(%"bQ6,,0"!9&:"A6"8+7*1-86-0"*5"(677*08",;(+80".*",0--*"-80>*/65*".65"&2B9H"1+7;*-0".65"
!99#"+".65"!9&2%"'"M05O6,0H",+5"!9&:H"1*"10,0"8+7*1-86-+"!:",0--*"-80>*/65*"+"5Q6;(+,-0".65"&2B9"65"!9!!"["
1-6-0".*"/*8/6".*+/*",0--*"*,";,"6,,0%"@+8"*5"E;-;80"6")8+4+"-+8(*,+"G!9!&"a"!9$9JH">+8"5+"68++"6"R;0-+"*,E+_
8*08*"6":99"("1*">8+4+.+";,"6;(+,-0"(+.*0".*"/*8/6"1+*",0--*"-80>*/65*"655Q6,,0"+"-86"&!"+"&$",0--*H"*,")61+"
6550"1/+,68*0H">+8"*5"E;-;80"6"(+.*0"-+8(*,+"G!9$&"a"!9?9J%"
"
-2.5
0.0
2.5
5.0
7.5
1971 1991 2011 2031 2051 2071 2091
°C
Scenario RCP 8.5
Scenario RCP 4.5
Storico
&2"
"
"
Figura 4: Numero medio delle notti tropicali in un anno in Alto Adige nel periodo storico 1981-2010 e nel 2021 a"
2040 e 2041 a"2060 secondo lo scenario RCP 8.5
"
',/A+"*"=+'&$+!(+!=,;'"1-6,,0".*(*,;+,.0"/01-6,-+(+,-+"6"-;--+"5+"E61/+".*"R;0-6%"L65"&2B9H"56"8*.;O*0,+"
.+*"7*08,*".*"7+50"*,";,"6,,0"["1-6-6".*"/*8/6"#9">+8"5+"68++"6"R;0-+"*,E+8*08*"6":99"("+"/*8/6"$9">+8"5+"68++"
05-8+"&999"(%"bQ6,,0"/0,"*5"(*,08",;(+80".*"7*08,*".*"7+50"["1-6-0"*5"!9&$%"W,-80"*5"!9?9H"1*">8+4+.+";,6"
8*.;O*0,+"101-6,O*65+".+*"7*08,*".*"7+50H"/0,";,6">+81*1-+,O6"1050"655+"R;0-+"1;>+8*08*"6"#999"("GTC@"B%:J%"
P"=&3(+!=+'&$'!(+!&322&,1:38,$%'"10,0"7+,+865(+,-+";16-*">+8"1-*(68+"*5"/0,1;(0"+,+87+-*/0">+8"*5"86E_
E8+..6(+,-0".+75*"+.*E*/*%"bQ*,.*/6-08+"["6;(+,-6-0".+5"#9"q".65"&2B9"6"077*">+8"56"1-6O*0,+".*"M05O6,0H"
/0,"*5"46508+"8+/08.",+5"!9!!H"1+7;*-0".65"!99#%"@+8"*5"E;-;80"6")8+4+"-+8(*,+"G!9!&_!9$9JH"1*">8+4+.+";,"
;5-+8*08+"6;(+,-0".+5"#9"q"+H">+8"*5"E;-;80"6"(+.*0"-+8(*,+"G!9$&_!9?9JH"-86"*5"$B"q"GTC@"$%:J"65":?"q"
GTC@"B%:J"8*1>+--0"65">+8*0.0".*"8*E+8*(+,-0"&2B&"a"!9&9%""
Precipitazione
b+"011+846O*0,*">+8"56">&,:+>+%3*+'$,!3$$)3;,!,!1%3=+'$3;,",0,"(01-86,0"468*6O*0,*"1*7,*E*/6-*4+",+75*"
;5-*(*".+/+,,*H"1+",0,";,6".+)05+"-+,.+,O6"655Q6;(+,-0".+55+">8+/*>*-6O*0,*".6"0--0)8+"6"(68O0H"+"/0,"
;,6",0-+405+"468*6)*5*-N"*,-+86,,;65+%"b+">8+4*1*0,*"E;-;8+"*,.*/6,0";,".+)05+"6;(+,-0".+55+">8+/*>*-6_
O*0,*"6,,;65*"6"1/656"8+7*0,65+H"/0,";,6"468*6O*0,+".*"/*8/6"r!"q"+"r:"q",+5")8+4+"+"(+.*0"-+8(*,+""
1+/0,.0"50"1/+,68*0"TC@"$%:%"\0,"1*">8+4+.0,0"468*6O*0,*"1*7,*E*/6-*4+">+8"5+">8+/*>*-6O*0,*"+1-*4+"G.6"
6>8*5+"6"0--0)8+JH"1+>>;8"/0,";,6"5*+4+"8*.;O*0,+",+5"(+.*0"-+8(*,+H"10>86--;--0",+550"1/+,68*0"TC@"B%:%"
^"*,-+8+116,-+",0-68+"/A+H"1+))+,+"56"(+.*6,6".+55+"468*6O*0,*"+1-*4+"1*6".*">0/A*">;,-*">+8/+,-;65*H"*5"
86,7+".+*"(0.+55*",+5"(+.*0"-+8(*,+"8*>08-6"6,/A+"8*.;O*0,*".*"05-8+"*5"&9"qH"*,">68-*/0568+",+550"1/+,68*0"
TC@"B%:"G<*7;86":J%"P,"*,4+8,0"5+"468*6O*0,*"10,0">*`"(68/6-+"+"-;--*"*"(0.+55*"8*>08-6,0"6;(+,-*",+5")8+4+"
+"(+.*0"-+8(*,+"Gr$"q"+"r&9"q">+8"+,-86()*"75*"1/+,68*J%"
"
storico (1981-2010) RCP 8.5 (2041-2060)RCP 8.5 (2021-2040)
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30
Numero di notti tropicali per anno
!9"
"
"
Figura 5: Boxplot delle variazioni relative nel breve e medio termine delle precipitazioni stagionali in Alto Adige,
rispetto al 1981 a"2010 e secondo i due scenari. La linea orizzontale rappresenta la mediana delle simulazioni, i
box si estendono sull’intervallo interquartile, mentre le linee verticali dal minimo al massimo valore
"
Siccità
P">,&+'(+!31:+)%%+H"*,"-+8(*,*".*".;86-6H",0,"8*>08-6,0"468*6O*0,*"1*7,*E*/6-*4+"1*6",+55+"011+846O*0,*"/A+"
,+55+">80*+O*0,*%"U;--64*6H"/0(+"/0,1+7;+,O6".+55Q+EE+--0".+55Q*,,65O6(+,-0".+55+"-+(>+86-;8+"1;55Q+46_
>0-861>*86O*0,+H"1*">8+4+.+";,"6;(+,-0".+55+"/0,.*O*0,*".*".+E*/*-",+5")*56,/*0"*.8*/0",+*">8011*(*""
.+/+,,*%"F+/0,.0"5Q*,.*/6-08+"QKR#!3!"/!8,1+H"*"(+1*"/686--+8*OO6-*".6"1+4+8+"/0,.*O*0,*".*"1*//*-N"10,0"
>8+4*1-*"6;(+,-68+"*,"+,-86()*"75*"1/+,68*%"\+5"!9$&_!9?9">0-8+))+80"+11+8+">*`".*"&:"*"(+1*"/686--+8*O_
O6-*".6".+E*/*-"1+4+80"GF@WP"t"_!J",+550"1/+,68*0">+77*08+"+"05-8+".*+/*"1+/0,.0"50"1/+,68*0"TC@"$%:%"'5""
/0,-868*0H"1+/0,.0"5Q*,.*/6-08+"QK#!3!"/!8,1+H")616-0"1050"1;55+">8+/*>*-6O*0,*"/;(;56-+H"5+">80*+O*0,*""
*,.*/6,0";,"6;(+,-0".+*"(+1*"/686--+8*OO6-*".6"1;8>5;1".*">8+/*>*-6O*0,*%"P5"/0,E80,-0"-86"*".;+"*,.*/6-08*"
1;77+8*1/+"/0(+"5Q6;(+,-0".+55+"-+(>+86-;8+"140576";,"8;050">8+.0(*,6,-+",+5".+-+8(*,68+"5+"/0,.*_
O*0,*".*"1*//*-NH"6,/A+"6"E80,-+".*";,6"(0.+1-6"E5+11*0,+".+55+">*077+"6,,;65*%"^"*(>08-6,-+"10--05*,+68+"
/A+"*5"/65/050".*"F@WP">8+1;>>0,+";,6".*1>0,*)*5*-N"*55*(*-6-6".*";(*.*-N">+8"5Q+46>0-861>*86O*0,+H"/0,";,6"
>011*)*5+"6(>5*E*/6O*0,+".+556"1+4+8*-N".+55+"/0,.*O*0,*"1*//*-01+"1-*(6-+%"b+">80*+O*0,*"E;-;8+".+40,0">+8_
-6,-0"+11+8+"*,-+8>8+-6-+"/0(+";,"-+--0"(611*(0"6556"468*6O*0,+"6--+16".+75*"+4+,-*".*"1*//*-N",+556""
8+7*0,+%"b+"1-+11+"/0,/5;1*0,*"10,0"465*.+"6,/A+">+8"F@P"+"F@WP"/65/056-*">+8">+8*0.*">*`")8+4*"G>+8"+1+(_
>*0"-8+"(+1*J%""
Precipitazione intensa
b+">8+/*>*-6O*0,*"*,-+,1+"(01-86,0"468*6O*0,*"6,,;65*"/0,-+,;-+".65"&2B9"6"077*%"P"8311+8+!3$$)3;+!(,;;3!
>&,:+>+%3*+'$,!=+'&$3;+,&3"8*>08-6,0"/6()*6(+,-*"*,E+8*08*"65"&9"q">+8".+/+,,*0"/0,"1+7,65*".*"6;(+,-0"
>8+465+,-+(+,-+",+556">68-+"/+,-865+"+"08*+,-65+".+5"-+88*-08*0"+"8*.;O*0,*"*,"R;+556"0//*.+,-65+H"(6"
1+,O6"1*7,*E*/6-*4*-N"1-6-*1-*/6%"',65*OO6,.0"5+"468*6O*0,*"1;55+"1+8*+".*"#!"1-6O*0,*"011+846-*4+"*,"'5-0"'.*7+"
6">68-*8+".65"&2:?H"*"-8+,.".+*"(611*(*"6,,;65*"10,0">8+465+,-+(+,-+">01*-*4*"+"1*7,*E*/6-*4*"*,".*+/*""
1-6O*0,*"G<*7;86"?J%"b+">80*+O*0,*"8*>08-6,0";,"6;(+,-0"6"1/656"8+7*0,65+"1*6",+5")8+4+"/A+"(+.*0"-+8(*,+"
GrK"q">+8"TC@"$%:"+"r&&"q">+8"TC@"B%:"+,-80"*5"!9?9J%"',6507A+"468*6O*0,*"10,0">8+4*1-+">+8"*"%'%3;+!!
3$$)3;+!(,;;,!>&,:+>+%3*+'$+!>+S!+$%,$1,"Gr&2"q"+"r!$"q"+,-80"*5"!9?9"6"1+/0,.6".+550"1/+,68*0J"+";,""
.+)05+"6;(+,-0",+556"5080"2&,P),$*3%"
Apr-Set Ott-Mar
2021-2040 2041-2060 2021-2040 2041-2060
-20
0
20
%
RCP 4.5 RCP 8.5
!&"
"
"
"
Figura 6: Trend dei massimi annuali di precipitazione giornaliera dal 1956 al 2020 per 32 stazioni di misura in Alto
Adige. I triangoli rappresentano i siti in cui il trend è statisticamente significativo (p-value < 0.05). I trend sono
espressi in variazioni percentuali per decennio rispetto al valore medio su tutto il periodo
"
P"/6()*6(+,-*".+55+">8+/*>*-6O*0,*">0-8+))+80"6,/A+"8*7;68.68+"56"5080"(+1%&+9)*+'$,!1%3=+'$3;,%"F;..*4*_
.+,.0"*".6-*"011+846-*4*"1>6O*65*OO6-*"*,".;+"4+,-+,,*"1;//+11*4*"G&2B9"a"!999"+"!99&"a"!9!!JH"1*",0-6";,"
6;(+,-0",+*"(+1*"6;-;,,65*"+"*,4+8,65*",0,"1050".+556">8+/*>*-6O*0,+"-0-65+"(+,1*5+"(6"6,/A+".+55Q+$%,$M
1+%B!8,(+3!=+'&$3;+,&3!(,;;,!>+'==,!G<*7;86"K6J%"U65+"1+7,65+"["6,/A+"/0,E+8(6-0".6*"46508*".+5"22]">+8_
/+,-*5+".+55+">8+/*>*-6O*0,*"/65/056-*">+8"07,*"7*08,0".+55Q6,,0",+*".;+">+8*0.*"/A+"8*1;5-6,0"1;>+8*08*",+5"
4+,-+,,*0">*`"8+/+,-+",+*"(+1*"-68.0"6;-;,,65*"+"*,4+8,65*%"Z;+1-+"468*6O*0,*">0110,0"64+8+"*(>08-6,-*"
*(>5*/6O*0,*"6,/A+"1;556".*1-8*);O*0,+"6,,;65+".+*">+8*/05*",6-;865*"/0,,+11*"655+">*077+"*,-+,1+"G<*7;86"
K)J%"\+55+">80*+O*0,*">+8"*5"E;-;80"6")8+4+"G!9!&_!9$9J"+"(+.*0"G!9$&_!9?9J"-+8(*,+">+8"+,-86()*"75*""
1/+,68*"5+">8+/*>*-6O*0,*"-0-65*"(+,1*5*"+"5Q*,-+,1*-N"(+.*6"7*08,65*+86">0-8+))+80"6;(+,-68+"*,">68-*/0_
568+"-86"*5"-68.0"6;-;,,0"+"5Q*,*O*0".+556">8*(64+86"+"8*(6,+8+"*,468*6-+"0"1;)*8+";,6".+)05+"8*.;O*0,+"
,+556"-68.6">8*(64+86"+."+1-6-+%""
"
" "
12.511.5 12.010.5 11.0
46.2
46.4
46.6
46.8
47.0
-5
-3
-1
1
3
5
7
9
%/decennio
non signicativo
signicativo
!!"
"
6J"
"
"
)J""
"
"
"
Figura 7: In a) Intensità media mensile della precipitazione giornaliera nel 1980-2000 e 2001 a"2022 a confronto;
in b) boxplot delle proiezioni per l’intensità media mensile secondo lo scenario RCP 8.5. Nel boxplot, la linea oriz-
zontale riporta la mediana dei modelli, i box si estendono sull’intervallo interquartile, le barre verticali dal minimo
al massimo valore
0
3
6
9
12
13 5 7911
mm/giorno
246 8 10 12
Mese
1980-2000 2001-2022
5
10
15
20
1357911
mm
2468 10 12
2021-2040
1981-2010 2041-2060
Mese
!#"
"
3.4
Processi idrologici
bQ'5-0"'.*7+"70.+".*";,"*(>08-6,-+">6-8*(0,*0"*.8*/0H"/0(>01-0".6".*4+81+"/0(>0,+,-*"/A*64+D"
Neve
@+8"5Q'5-0"'.*7+"56",+4+"[".*"1-8608.*,68*6"*(>08-6,O6H"*,,6,O*-;--0">+8"56"1;6"E;,O*0,+".*"1+8)6-0*0",6-;_
865+D"56",+4+"*((676OO*,6"5Q6/R;6".+55+">8+/*>*-6O*0,*"*,4+8,65*"+"56"5*)+86",;046(+,-+"/0,"*5".*17+50H"
655Q*,*O*0".+5">+8*0.0"4+7+-6-*40%"b6"/0(>0,+,-+",*465+"["E0,.6(+,-65+">+8"56"(677*08">68-+".+*"-088+,-*"
*,">804*,/*6"+",+".+-+8(*,6"*5"8+7*(+%"P5"/0,-8*);-0".+556"E;1*0,+",*465+"["*(>08-6,-+"6,/A+">+8"*5")*56,/*0"
*.8*/0".+5"1;050H">+8"56"4+7+-6O*0,+"+H".*"/0,1+7;+,O6H">+8"5+"6--*4*-N"678*/05+%"b6"R;6,-*-N".Q6/R;6"/A+"
4*+,+"6//;(;56-6"10--0"E08(6".*",+4+"1;>+86".*"786,"5;,76"*5"405;(+"*.8*/0".*"-;--*"75*"*,461*"68-*E*/*65*"
.+55Q'5-0"'.*7+%"
"
\+75*";5-*(*"$9"6,,*H"5Q65-+OO6".+556",+4+"[".*(*,;*-6",+556"(677*08">68-+".+55+"1-6O*0,*".*"(*1;86O*0,+H"(6"
/0,".*EE+8+,O+"6"1+/0,.6".+5"(+1+H".+55Q65-*-;.*,+"+".+556">01*O*0,+%"\+*"!B"1*-*"/A+"E08,*1/0,0"1+8*+"-+(_
>0865*">*`"0"(+,0"/0(>5+-+".65"&2B&"65"!9!9H"56",+4+"[".*(*,;*-6"*,"*,4+8,0"G.6".*/+()8+"6"(68O0JH""
1>+/*65(+,-+"10--0"*"&:99"(%"U86"*"&:99"+"*"!999"("*,4+/+".*(*,;O*0,*"+"6;(+,-*"1*")*56,/*6,0%"P,05-8+H"
.655+"011+846O*0,*"1*">0110,0"*>0-*OO68+"65/;,+"-+,.+,O+"7+0786E*/A+D"56",+4+"[".*(*,;*-6"6",08."+"6"+1-H"
(+,-8+"6"1;."+"04+1-"["6;(+,-6-6%"@+8"+1+(>*0H"6"F5*,7*6H"6"04+1-".+556">804*,/*6"G&?29"(JH"5Q65-+OO6"(+_
.*6".+556",+4+"*,"E+))86*0"["6;(+,-6-6".6"$B"6"?#"/(H"(+,-8+"65"5670".*"\+4+1",+5",08._+1-"G&B?9"(J"["
.*(*,;*-6".6"B?"6"??"/(%"\+11;,"6;(+,-0"["1-6-0"011+846-0"6556"E*,+".+556"1-67*0,+H"/A+"/088*1>0,.+"65"
(+1+".*"6>8*5+"0"(677*0"6"1+/0,.6".+556"R;0-6%"b6",+4+"["*,"(+.*6".+5"-;--0"1/0(>6816",+55Q;5-*(0"(+1+"
.+556"1-67*0,+%"@+8"+1+(>*0H"6"F+1-0"0"6"@+,,+1H".04+"R;686,-Q6,,*"E6"+86,0",08(65*".6"K"6"!$"/(".*"
,+4+"*,"6>8*5+H"077*"*,"6>8*5+",0,"/Q[">*`",+4+"+"50"1-+110"1;//+.+"(+.*6(+,-+",+55+"65-8+"50/65*-N"10--0"*"
&:99"(%"P5"5*(*-+">8*,/*>65+".*"R;+1-+"011+846O*0,*"["/A+"1*")616,0"+1/5;1*46(+,-+"1;"(*1;86O*0,*"65".*"
10--0".+*"!999"(H".6-6"56"(6,/6,O6"*,"'5-0"'.*7+".*"5;,7A+"1+8*+"011+846-*4+"65".*"10>86".*"R;+1-6"R;0-6%"
P,E08(6O*0,*"1;556"/0>+8-;86",+4016"6,/A+"655+"R;0-+">*`"+5+46-+">0110,0"+11+8+"*,-+786-+".655+"011+846_
O*0,*"16-+55*-68*"(6"1050">+8"75*";5-*(*"4+,-Q6,,*%"b6"/0>+8-;86",+4016"*,4+8,65+"*,"'5-0"'.*7+"10>86"*"!999"
("["R;61*"1-6)*5+".65"!99#"6"077*H"(+,-8+";,6".+)05+"8*.;O*0,+"+(+87+">+8"5+"R;0-+"*,E+8*08*H"*,"5*,+6"/0,"
5+"-+,.+,O+"(*1;86-+".655+"011+846O*0,*"65"1;050"GA-->1DIIjjj%+;86/%+.;I*-I.6-6_*,_6/-*0,I(0,*-0867_
7*0_.+*_/6()*6(+,-*_/5*(6-*/*I/0>+8-;86_,+4016_+_1;+_468*6O*0,*J%"
"
@+8"R;6,-0"8*7;68.6"5+",+4*/6-+H"56",+4+"E8+1/6"6//;(;56-6">+8"1-67*0,+"[".*(*,;*-6".+5"K:"q",+556"/*--N"
.*"M05O6,0"+".+5"$?"q"6"U8+,-0"-86"*5"&2B9"+"*5"!9!9H"86>>8+1+,-6,.0";,6"-+,.+,O6"1*7,*E*/6-*46",+5""
>+8*0.0"/0,1*.+86-0%"Z;+1-6".*(*,;O*0,+"["011+846)*5+"6,/A+"*,"65-8+"50/65*-N"/0(+"F6,"C6,.*.0H"',.650"
+"T6))*H"/0,"8*.;O*0,*"8*1>+--*46(+,-+".+5"!?"qH"!&"q"+"!2"q",+55+",+4*/6-+"G<*7;86"BJ%""
Z;+1-*".6-*"10,0"6--8*);*-*"655Q6;(+,-0"7+,+865+".+55+"-+(>+86-;8+H"/6;16-0".65"/6()*6(+,-0"/5*(6-*/0%"
bQ6;(+,-0"(+.*0".+556"-+(>+86-;86",+55+"&B"1-6O*0,*"(0,*-086-+"["1-6-0".*"&H:$"]CH"8*1;5-6,.0"*,";,""
/6()*6(+,-0",+556"E08(6".+55+">8+/*>*-6O*0,*H"/A+"-+,.0,0"6"+11+8+">*`"5*R;*.+"10>86--;--0"655+"R;0-+"
>*`")611+%"\0,01-6,-+";,"6;(+,-0"/0(>5+11*40".+55+">8+/*>*-6O*0,*"1-67*0,65*H"R;+1-+"1*"(6,*E+1-6,0"
>8*,/*>65(+,-+"10--0"E08(6".*">*077*6"6,O*/Ac",+4+%""
U;--64*6H"10,0"1-6-*"8+7*1-86-*"65/;,*"/61*".*"6;(+,-0".+55+",+4*/6-+"6"R;0-+"+5+46-+H"*,-08,0"0"10>86"*"
!999"(H"(6"1050",+*"(+1*"/+,-865*".+55Q*,4+8,0H".04;-*"65"(6,-+,*(+,-0".*"-+(>+86-;8+"1;EE*/*+,-+(+,-+"
E8+..+">+8"/0,1+,-*8+"56"/6.;-6".*",+4+"6,O*/Ac">*077*6"GM+8-05.*"+-"65%H"!9!#J%""
!$"
"
"
Figura 8: Trend delle nevicate (HN) in Trentino-Alto Adige dal 1980 al 2020
\+5"E;-;80"6"/6;16".+55+"-+(>+86-;8+">*`"65-+"/*"168N"(+,0",+4+"*,"6;-;,,0"+"*,">8*(64+86%"F68N"/01d""
6,/A+"*,"*,4+8,0"655+"R;0-+">*`")611+".04+H">+8"+EE+--0".+5"8*1/65.6(+,-0H">*04+8N"*,4+/+".*",+4*/68+%"
'55+"R;0-+">*`"65-+H"*5">011*)*5+"6;(+,-0".+55+">8+/*>*-6O*0,*">0-8+))+"/0(>08-68+">*`",+4+"*,">*+,0"*,_
4+8,0H"(6"56"1-67*0,+"168N"/0(;,R;+">*`")8+4+D"/0,"-+(>+86-;8+">*`"65-+"[">80)6)*5+"/A+",+4*/A*">*`"
-68.*"*,"6;-;,,0"+"56"/0>+8-;86",+4016"1*"8*.;/6">8*(6"+">*`"4+50/+(+,-+"*,">8*(64+86%"C0(>5+11*46_
(+,-+H",+556"8+7*0,+"65>*,6"56"R;6,-*-N"-0-65+".*",+4+".*(*,;*8N"1*7,*E*/6-*46(+,-+"*,"-;--*"*">+8*0.*"
.+55Q6,,0"+"*,">68-*/0568+"*,">8*(64+86%"W,-80"56"E*,+".+5"1+/050H",+550"1/+,68*0">+77*08+H"5+"/0,.*O*0,*"6-_
-;65*".*"/0>+8-;86",+4016">0-8+))+80"1>01-681*">*`"*,"65-0".*":99"a"&999"(H"/*0[",+5"!&99"5+"/0,.*O*0,*"
.+556",+4+"6"!999"("/088*1>0,.+86,,0"6"R;+55+"/A+"1*"-8046,0"077*"6"&999"a"&:99"(%"
Ghiacciai
b6"1;>+8E*/*+"756/*65+"1*"1-6"86>*.6(+,-+"8*.;/+,.0D".65"&22K"65"!9&K"[".*(*,;*-6".6"&!&H2"l(2"6"B$"l(2H"
>68*"655Q&H&"q".+556"1;>+8E*/*+">804*,/*65+"GV6501"+-"65%H"!9!#J%"'"5*4+550"50/65+H"10>86--;--0",+*"-+88*-08*""
1+//A*".+556"465"X+,01-6H"*"7A*6//*6*"/01-*-;*1/0,0";,"*(>08-6,-+"1+8)6-0*0".Q6/R;6H"10>86--;--0".;86,-+"
5+"0,.6-+"/65.+"+1-*4+%"P5"/0,-8*);-0"/0(>5+11*40".+556"E;1*0,+".+*"7A*6//*6*"65".+E5;110".+5"E*;(+"'.*7+"["
(0.+1-0"G/*8/6"#"q"655Q6,,0"6"M80,O050H"(6"K"q"*,"5;75*0JH"(6">;h".*4+,-68+"1*7,*E*/6-*40"*,"+1-6-+"+",+*"
)6/*,*".+*"/081*".Q6/R;6">*`"*,"R;0-6"GB"q">+8"5Q';8*,0H"05-8+"*5"!9"q"*,"5;75*0J%"L;86,-+"5+"0,.6-+".*"/6508+"
*5"/0,-8*);-0"756/*65+">;h".*4+,-68+".+-+8(*,6,-+">+8"/0(>+,168,+"75*"+EE+--*H"/0(+"644+,;-0",+55+"
+1-6-*"1*//*-01+".+5"!99#"GE*,0"65"!!"q">+8"5Q'.*7+"+"*5"$:">+8"5Q';8*,0J"+"8+/+,-+(+,-+",+5"!9!!"GFA8+1-A6"
+-"65%H"*,">8+>686O*0,+J%""
Laghi
\+556"fC68-6".+55+"6/R;+g".+55Q'5-0"'.*7+"10,0"1-6-*"*.+,-*E*/6-*"$#?"567A*%"L*"R;+1-*H"!#&">8+1+,-6,0";,6"
1;>+8E*/*+"(05-0"8*.0--6H"*,E+8*08+"/*0["6"&"A6%"X*"[";,"1050"5670",6-;865+H"*5"5670".*"C65.680H"/0,";,Q+1-+,_
1*0,+"1;>+8*08+"6*":9"A6%"b6"(677*08">68-+".+*"567A*"1*"-8046",+556"E61/*6".*"65-6"R;0-6H"65".*"10>86".+*"!999"
(%"P",04+"567A*"G/*,R;+"567A*",6-;865*"+"R;6--80"*,461*"68-*E*/*65*J"10--0>01-*"6"-*>*OO6O*0,+"10,0"1-6-*"
Andalo
−21%
Bolzano
−75%
Bondone Viote
−19%
Casera
di Fuori
−24%
Lago Verde
0%
Ora
−56%
Ortisei
−37%
Passo Rolle
16%
Passo Tonale
17%
Pennes
−5%
Pozza di Fassa
−16%
Rabbi
−29%
Riva del
Garda −35% Rovereto
−40%
San Candido
−26%
Silandro
−34%
Trento
−46%
Vipiteno
−19%
45.8 °N
46.0°N
46.2 °N
46.4°N
46.6°N
46.8°N
47.0°N
10.5°E 11.0°E 11.5 °E 12.0 °E 12.5 °E
Trend HN [%]
(30,80]
(10,30]
(−10,10]
(−30,−10]
(−80,−30]
1000
2000
3000
m a.s.l.
!:"
"
*.+,-*E*/6-*"/0(+"f,0,"6"8*1/A*0g">+8"R;6,-0"8*7;68.6"*5"8677*;,7*(+,-0".+55Q0)*+--*40".*"R;65*-N%"@+8"*5"
5670".*"',-+81+546H".*"M86*+1"+".*"C68+OO6H"/A+"7*N">8+1+,-6,0";,0"1-6-0".*"R;65*-N"+5+46-0H"5Q0)*+--*40"["
*,4+/+"*5"(6,-+,*(+,-0".+550"1-6-0".*"R;65*-N"6()*+,-65+"f+5+46-0g%"P5">8*,/*>65+"*(>6--0".+5"/6()*6_
(+,-0"/5*(6-*/0"["5+76-0"6";,6"8*.;O*0,+".+75*"6EE5;11*"+1-*4*">+8";,6"(677*08+"+46>086O*0,+"+"655Q"
6;(+,-0".+556"-+(>+86-;86"/A+">;h"8*.;88+"*5">+8*0.0".*"-+(>0"*,"/;*"*5"5670"["/0>+8-0".*"7A*6//*0H"65-+_
868,+"56"/*8/056O*0,+"*,-+8,6"+"5Q+/01*1-+(6"/0,"/0,1+7;+,O+"1;556"R;65*-N".+55+"6/R;+%"@+8"+1+(>*0H""
.;86,-+"65/;,+"8+/+,-*"0,.6-+".*"/6508+H"/0(+",+5"!9!!H"*5"5670".*"C65.680"A6"8677*;,-0"*,"1;>+8E*/*+"-+(_
>+86-;8+"1;>+8*08*"6*"!K"]CH"/A+">0110,0"+11+8+"/8*-*/A+">+8"5Q+/01*1-+(6%"V5*"*(>6--*".+55Q6;(+,-0".+556"
-+(>+86-;86".+55+"6/R;+"1;75*"+/01*1-+(*">0-8+))+80"+11+8+"6,/086">*`"7864*".*"R;+55*"5+76-*"655Q6;(+,-0"
.+556"-+(>+86-;86".+55Q68*6"+"6,.8+))+80".;,R;+"6>>80E0,.*-*"+".0/;(+,-6-*"/0,"(677*08+"6--+,O*0,+%"
Acque sotterranee
P5"/6()*6(+,-0"*,"6--0".+5"/*/50"*.80507*/0"8*1/A*6".*"*(>6--68+",+76-*46(+,-+"5+"6/R;+"10--+886,++H"1*6"
*,"-+8(*,*".*"R;6,-*-N"/A+".*"R;65*-N%"P,">68-*/0568+H".*4+81*"E6--08*">0110,0"/0,-8*);*8+"6";,6"(*,08+"8*/6_
8*/6".+55+"E65.+D"56"(677*08+"+46>0-861>*86O*0,+H"*5"(*,08+"/0,-8*);-0",*465+"+">8+/*>*-6O*0,*">*`"*,-+,1+"
/A+">0110,0"*,.;88+";,"(677*08+"8;1/+556(+,-0%"'*"E6--08*",6-;865*"1*"10486>>0,70,0"*"/0,-8*);-*"6,-80_
>*/*"*,"-+8(*,*".*">8+5*+4*">+8"5Q6>>8044*7*0,6(+,-0"678*/050"+"*,.;1-8*65+%"
P,"'5-0"'.*7+"5Q;-*5*OO0".*"6/R;+".*"E65.6">+8"5Q6>>8044*7*0,6(+,-0"*.80>0-6)*5+"["65"(0(+,-0"5*(*-6-0%"
U;--64*6H"*,"E;-;80H"5+"6/R;+"10--+886,++">0-8+))+80"+11+8+";,6"8*10816"1+(>8+">*`"*(>08-6,-+">+8"4*6"
.+556"5080"(*,08+"4;5,+86)*5*-N"6"+4+,-*"1*//*-01*%"
\0,"+1*1-+"6--;65(+,-+";,0"1-;.*0"1*1-+(6-*/0"*,"'5-0"'.*7+"1;*"-8+,."6--;65*"*,"-+8(*,*".*"5*4+550".*"E65.6%"
F0,0".*1>0,*)*5*"65/;,*"1-;.*"/0((*11*0,6-*".6556"@804*,/*6"6,O*-;--0">+8"56"/*--N".*"M05O6,0"1*6"*,"8+56_
O*0,+"6556">0-+,O*65+"4;5,+86)*5*-N".+556"E65.6"GT6;-+8H"&222J"1*6"E*,65*OO6-*"6556"1*(;56O*0,+".+*"8+7*(*".*"
E65.6",+556"/0,/6".+556"/*--N"/6>05;070%"Z;+1-Q;5-*(0"+4*.+,O*6";,".+)05+"-8+,.".+/8+1/+,-+",+5">+8*0.0"
&22&_!9&2%"\+5"5080"/0(>5+110H".675*"1-;.*".*1>0,*)*5*"1*"+4*,/+";,6"+4*.+,-+"/*/5*/*-N">5;8*+,,65+".+*""
5*4+55*".*"E65.6"*,"'5-0"'.*7+%"F-;.*"/0,.0--*"*,"68++"65>*,+"5*(*-80E+"6"5*4+550"8+7*0,65+"(01-86,0"*,4+/+";,6"
7+,+865+"-+,.+,O6"655Q6;(+,-0".+55+"6/R;+".*"E65.6",+75*";5-*(*"6,,*"G'46,O*"+-"65%H"!9!$J"
Deflussi superficiali
bQ'5-0"'.*7+"/0(>8+,.+"786,">68-+".+5")6/*,0".+5"E*;(+"'.*7+H"*5"1+/0,.0">+8"5;,7A+OO6"*,"P-65*6%"P".6-*"
.+55Q'7+,O*6">+8"56">80-+O*0,+"/*4*5+".+556"@804*,/*6"6;-0,0(6".*"M05O6,0"(01-86,0"/A+"*5"$#"q".+55Q6/R;6"
/A+"65*(+,-6"5Q'.*7+"G6EE5;11*J">804*+,+".6556"E;1*0,+".*",+4+"+"7A*6//*0%"Z;+1-0".6-0"165+"E*,0"65":?"q">+8"
)6/*,*".*"65-6"R;0-6"/0(+"*5"-088+,-+"';8*,0%"P"(611*(*".+E5;11*"644+,70,0"*,"+1-6-+H"*,"7*;7,0H"(6">*//A*"
.*">08-6-6"1*7,*E*/6-*4*"10,0">011*)*5*"6,/A+"*,"6;-;,,0%"P5"/8*,65+">8*,/*>65+".+55+"'5>*"86>>8+1+,-6";,Q*(_
>08-6,-+".*4*1*0,+"/5*(6-*/6%"'",08.H"10,0"6;(+,-6-*"*".+E5;11*",+5"1+(+1-8+"*,4+8,65+">+8/AcH"6"/6;16"
.+55+"-+(>+86-;8+">*`"65-+H">*04+".*">*`H",+4*/6"(+,0"+"1050"6"R;0-+">*`"65-+%"'"1;.H"10,0".*(*,;*-*"*"/0,_
-8*);-*"6*".+E5;11*"+1-*4*">+8/Ac"5+"-+(>+86-;8+"10,0">*`"65-+H">*04+"(+,0"+"5Q+46>0-861>*86O*0,+">8040/6"
(677*08*">+8.*-+"GM+,*1-0,"+-"65%H"!9&BJ%"
b+"011+846O*0,*"8+56-*4+"655Q'5-0"'.*7+"/0,E+8(6,0"R;+1-6"-+,.+,O6"7+,+865+H">;8"/0,".*EE+8+,O+"5+76-+"
6*"1*,705*")6/*,*%"P")6/*,*">01-*"6"R;0-+">*`"+5+46-+"/0,"E08-+"6>>08-0",*40756/*65+"(01-86,0">+8"+1+(>*0"
6;(+,-*".+55+">08-6-+"1*6"*,"+1-6-+"/A+"*,"*,4+8,0H"6"/6;16".+55+">*077+"/A+"101-*-;*1/0,0"1+(>8+">*`"
1>+110"5+",+4*/6-+"+I0"/0(+"/0,1+7;+,O6".+5"8*-*80".+*"7A*6//*6*"G@+,,6"+-"65%H"!9&$J%"T+/+,-*"1*-;6O*0,*"
1*//*-01+"/0(>+,16-+",+*".+E5;11*".6*"7A*6//*6*"*,"8*-*80"1*"10,0"4+8*E*/6-+",+55+"+1-6-*".+5"!9&K"+"!9!#%"
C0(+"4+8*E*/6-0".6";,0"1-;.*0"1405-0"*,"465".*"S6O*6H"*5"8;050"8+7056-08+".+*"7A*6//*6*H"/A+"E08,*1/0,0"
(677*08+"6/R;6".;86,-+"*">*//A*".*"/65.0">80>8*0"R;6,.0"6"4655+"1+",+"A6">*`")*107,0H"168N",0-+405(+,-+"
8*.0--0".6*"/6()*6(+,-*"/5*(6-*/*"GW,7+5"+-"65%H"!9&?J%""
P")6/*,*">01-*"6"R;0-+">*`")611+"0">*`"6(>*"8+7*1-86,0"*,4+/+"8*.;O*0,*",+55+">08-6-+H"1>+/*65(+,-+"*,"
+1-6-+%"C0,1*.+86,.0"56">08-6-6".+5"E*;(+"'.*7+"6"M80,O050H",+5">+8*0.0"6;-;,,65+"+"*,4+8,65+"*"46508*"
8+7*1-86-*"10,0"6;(+,-6-*".+5"!$"q".65"&2:K"6"077*H"(+,-8+"56">08-6-6"+1-*46"[".*(*,;*-6".+5"&!"q"G<*7;86"
2J%"F/+,.+,.0"4+810"56"E0/+H"*5"-8+,.",+76-*40".+5"E*;(+"'.*7+"*,"+1-6-+"1*"6(>5*E*/6";5-+8*08(+,-+%"bQ+E_
E+--0".+*"/6()*6(+,-*"/5*(6-*/*"1*";,*1/+"6*"/0,-8*);-*"6,-80>*/*"/0,">8+5*+4*"1+(>8+">*`"*,-+,1*".*"6/R;6"
>+8"468*";1*H"10>86--;--0"678*/050H"4*6"4*6"/A+"1*"1/+,.+"*,">*6,;86"GS655;//*"+-"65%H"!9&KJ%"
"
"
!?"
"
"
Figura 9: Serie delle portate (Q) del fiume Adige a Bronzolo tra il 1957 e il 2022
"
F*"1-6".;,R;+"(0.*E*/6,.0"*5"8+7*(+"1-67*0,65+".+*".+E5;11*%"C0(+"*55;1-86-0"*,"<*7;86"2H"1*"+4*.+,O*6,0"
65/;,+"-+,.+,O+".*"5;,70">+8*0.0",+5">6--+8,"6--;65+".*">08-6-6D"6;(+,-6,0"5+">08-6-+"*,4+8,65*H"6;_
(+,-6"+."["6,-*/*>6-0"*5">*//0".*">08-6-6"+1-*40H"(+,-8+"["8*-68.6-0"*5">*//0".*">08-6-6"6;-;,,65+%"
"
Z;+1-+"-+,.+,O+"10,0">8+4*1-+"/0,-*,;68+",+*">8011*(*".+/+,,*%"P,"7+,+865+H"*".+E5;11*"*,4+8,65*"6;(+,_
-+86,,0"6,/086H"R;+55*"+1-*4*".*(*,;*86,,0%"P5">*//0".*"E;1*0,+".+556",+4+"4+88N"6,-*/*>6-0%"F-;.*"1>+/*E*/*"
1;75*"6EE5;+,-*".+5")6/*,0".+55Q'.*7+"GCA*07,6"+-"65%H"!9&:J"(01-86,0"/6()*6(+,-*"(0.+86-*">+8"*5">+8*0.0"
!9!9"_"!9:9"(6"(05-0"(68/6-*">+8"*5">+8*0.0"!9:9"_"!9K9H"1>+/*65(+,-+">+8"50"1/+,68*0"/5*(6-*/0"TC@"
B%:H"/A+">8+4+.+";,6"8*.;O*0,+".861-*/6".+55Q*,,+46(+,-0"1;55+"'5>*%"P,"(+.*6H"*,"'5-0"'.*7+"*5">*//0".*"
E;1*0,+">0-8+))+"+11+8+"6,-*/*>6-0".*";,"(+1+%""
"
0
100
200
300
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
Q [m^3/s]
q_estate q_estate_trend q_inverno q_inverno_trend
Portata Adige a Bronzolo
!K"
"
"
Figura 10: Serie delle portate medie giornaliere (flow) del fiume Adige a Bronzolo tra il 1985 e il 2015, calcolate su
una finestra mobile di otto anni. Si evidenziano alcune tendenze di lungo periodo nel pattern attuale di portata:
aumentano le portate invernali, aumenta ed è anticipato il picco di portata estivo, mentre è ritardato il picco di
portata autunnale
S+,-8+"["+4*.+,-+"/A+"*"8+7*(*"1-67*0,65*"/6()*+86,,0"1+(>8+">*`H"*5"E6--0"/A+"*".+E5;11*".*(*,;*86,,0"1;"
1/656"6,,;65+",0,"["/0,E+8(6-0".6"-;--+"5+">80*+O*0,*%"P,E6--*H">+8"65/;,*"(0.+55*"5Q6;(+,-0".+55Q+46>0_
-861>*86O*0,+".04;-6"655+"-+(>+86-;8+"+5+46-+"168N"/0(>+,16-0">68O*65(+,-+".655Q6;(+,-0".+55+">8+/*_
>*-6O*0,*"(+.*+"6,,;65*%"Z;+1-0"465+"*,">68-*/0568+">+8"*")6/*,*".*"65-6"R;0-6%"3,0"1-;.*0"1;"65/;,*"E*;(*"
/A+",61/0,0",+5"78;>>0".+55Qk8-5+1_C+4+.65+"(01-86">+8"*5">+8*0.0"!9$9"a"!9K9";,"*,/8+(+,-0".+*".+_
E5;11*"(+.*".+5":"a"&$"qH"/0,";,"*,/8+(+,-0"*,"*,4+8,0".+5"#9"a"B&"q"+";,".+/8+(+,-0"*,"+1-6-+".+5"&&"a"
!&"q"GS6u0,+"+-"65%H"!9&?J%"P,"07,*"/610H"4+810"56"E*,+".+5"1+/050"*".+E5;11*".*"08*7*,+"756/*65+"1686,,0"
(05-0"(0.+1-*"6,/A+",+*")6/*,*">*`"+5+46-*%""
P5"/6()*6(+,-0".+5"8+7*(+".+*".+E5;11*"/0(>08-6"6,/A+";,"/6()*6(+,-0",+5"8+7*(+".*"-861>08-0".+*""
.+-8*-*"105*.*%"\+*"1*-*"/0,"+5+46-6".*1>0,*)*5*-N".*"1+.*(+,-0H"*,E6--*H"75*"6EE5;11*">804+,*+,-*".6*"7A*6//*6*"*,"
8*-*80">08-6,0"/0,"1c"1+(>8+">*`"1+.*(+,-*"(08+,*/*">8*(6"/0>+8-*".65"7A*6//*0%"P,"65/;,*")6/*,*"65-06-+_
1*,*"786,">68-+".+*"1+.*(+,-*"8*1;5-6,0"7*N".*5646-*"/0,"6;(+,-0".+55+"E86O*0,*".*")6/*,0"/0,")+.80/l""
6EE*086,-+H"/0(+",+5"/610".+556"4655+".*"F+546".+*"S05*,*%"F;"R;+1-+"-+(6-*/A+"10,0"6--*4+".+55+"8*/+8/A+"*,"
'5-0"'.*7+",+55Q6()*-0".*">807+--*"*,-+8,6O*0,65*H">+8"+1+(>*0"50"1-;.*0"FWL'b@"GA-->DIIjjj%1+.65>%+;J%"
P5"/6()*6(+,-0"/5*(6-*/0"1-6".;,R;+"7*N"-861E08(6,.0"*"1*1-+(*"*.8*/*"*,"'5-0"'.*7+H"8*7;68.6,-*"1*6"5+"6/_
R;+"1;>+8E*/*65*"/A+"R;+55+"10--+886,++H"/0,"/0,1+7;+,O+">+8"*5"8*1/A*0".*"+4+,-*".*">*+,6H"1*//*-N"+"*,R;*_
,6(+,-0".+55+"6/R;+%"
"
100
200
300
gen feb mar apr mag giu lug ago sett ott nov dic
Portata [m^3/s]
1985
1995
2005
2015
Anno
Evoluzione del regime idrologico del ume Adige (media mobile su nestra di 8 anni)
!B"
"
Eventi di piena
'"077*H"*".6-*"/A+"6))*6(0"6".*1>01*O*0,+",0,"(01-86,0";,"/6()*6(+,-0",+556"E8+R;+,O6".+75*"+4+,-*".*"
>*+,6"+1-8+(*%"Z;+1-0"[".04;-0"6,/A+"65"E6--0"/A+">*+,+"+1-8+(+"/0,"-+(>*".*"8*-08,0">68*"6"&99"6,,*"+"
>*`"10,0"+4+,-*"868*">+8".+E*,*O*0,+"+."[".*EE*/*5+".+-+8(*,68,+";,"-8+,."-+(>0865+%""
@+8"R;6,-0"8*7;68.6"*5"E*;(+"'.*7+H"5+"(677*08*">*+,+"10,0"644+,;-+",+5"&2?9H"&2?:H"&2??"/0,"5Q655;4*0,+"
.*"U8+,-0H"&2B&"/0,"5Q655;4*0,+".*"F6508,0H"&2BKH"&22KH"!9!9H"!9!&%"3,"8+/+,-+"+4+,-0"1*7,*E*/6-*40"/A+"
A6">08-6-0">+16,-*"/0,1+7;+,O+"1;5"-+88*-08*0H"10>86--;--0",+556">68-+"(+8*.*0,65+"+"08*+,-65+".+556">80_
4*,/*6H"["1-6-6"56"-+(>+1-6"fX6*6g"6"E*,+"0--0)8+"!9&B%"U;--64*6H"*,"R;+1-0"/610H">*`"/A+"5+"/0,1+7;+,O+".*"
-*>0"*.80507*/0H"10,0"1-6-*"*".6,,*"*,7+,-*".6"4+,-0"655+"O0,+"E08+1-6-+H"/A+">+8h"A6,,0">0*"*,,+1/6-0";,6"
1+8*+".*".*11+1-*".*EE;1*%""
b6"/80,6/6"-;--64*6"8*>08-6"1+(>8+">*`"1>+110".*">*+,+"*(>8044*1+".*"-088+,-*"1+/0,.68*"+",+*")6/*,*""
*()8*E+8*%"@+8"+1+(>*0H",+5"!9&!"6"X*OO+H",+5"!9&K"6"M86*+1H",+5"!9!&"6"<5+8+1"+",+5"!9!#"6"X65.6086">*+,+"
5+76-+"6">8+/*>*-6O*0,*"*,-+,1+"+"50/65*OO6-+"A6,,0"/6;16-0"7864*">80)5+(*"655+"*,E861-8;--;8+"+"*,"65/;,*"
/61*"6,/A+"4*--*(+%""
C0,1*.+86,.0"*,4+/+"*">011*)*5*"1/+,68*"E;-;8*H",0,01-6,-+"*5"-8+,."7+,+865+"4+810"+1-6-*">*`"1+//A+H",+55+"
'5>*"5+">*+,+"1686,,0">80)6)*5(+,-+">*`"E8+R;+,-*%"Z;+1-0"[".04;-0"65"E6--0"/A+"5+">*077+"1686,,0">*`"
*,-+,1+"6,/A+"6."65-6"R;0-6H".04+"E*,086"1*"8+7*1-8646,0"R;61*"1050">8+/*>*-6O*0,*",+401+"G'556(6,0"+-"
65%H"!992J%"T+>+,-*,+"0,.6-+".*"/65.0">0-86,,0"6,/A+"E68"1d"/A+",+5"-68.0"6;-;,,0"-08,*"6">*04+8+".04+"
7*N"["/6.;-6"56",+4+"6;(+,-6,.0"56">80)6)*5*-N".*".+E5;11*".*">*+,6%"b0"1/*075*(+,-0".+5">+8(6E801-"*,"
R;0-6">0-8N"*,05-8+"8+,.+8+">68-*/0568(+,-+">+8*/0501+"5+">*+,+"*(>8044*1+H"*,"R;6,-0">0-86,,0"*,,+_
1/68+"E+,0(+,*".*"/056-+".+-8*-*/A+">+8"4*6".+5"(677*08+"1+.*(+,-0".*1>0,*)*5+%"'5/;,*"E+,0(+,*".*""
R;+1-0"-*>0"10,0"1;//+11*"8+/+,-+(+,-+",+55+"L050(*-*H">+8"+1+(>*0",+5"!9&?"1;5"(0,-+"',-+560"4*/*,0"
6"C08-*,6".*"'(>+OO0"0",+5"!9&K"6"M86*+1%"
Anche nei bacini imbriferi minori si osservano sempre più spesso piene improvvise che fino a circa 20 - 30
anni fa non si erano manifestate. Tuttavia, i maggiori impatti di questi eventi dipendono anche dal mag-
gior grado di urbanizzazione, con più infrastrutture esposte rispetto agli anni precedenti.
Altri pericoli
P,E*,+H")*107,6"6,/A+"/0,1*.+868+"*"8*1/A*"6110/*6-*"6"*,0,.6O*0,*"0"/8055*".04;-*"6"567A*"0"6/R;6".*"E;1*0,+"
756/*65*%"Z;+1-*"+4+,-*">0110,0"64+8+"/0,1+7;+,O+".+461-6,-*">+8"5+"/0(;,*-N"1*-;6-+"6"4655+".+*"7A*6/_
/*6*%"Z;6,.0"*5"405;(+".+*"7A*6//*6*".*(*,;*1/+"6"/6;16".+5"8*1/65.6(+,-0"750)65+H"5Q6/R;6".*"E;1*0,+">;h"
6//;(;5681*"*,"567A*"756/*65*"0"*,.+)05*8+"*5"7A*6//*6*0"1-+110%"P5"7A*6//*6*0">;h".*4+,-68+"*,1-6)*5+"6"/6;16"
.+556">8+11*0,+".+55Q6/R;6"+".+55+"E86--;8+",+5"7A*6//*0H"6;(+,-6,.0"/01d"*5"8*1/A*0".*"/+.*(+,-0".+5"(68_
7*,+".+5"5670"0".*";,6"E86--;86",+5"7A*6//*0H"/0,8*561/*0"*(>8044*10"+"(611*//*0".*"6/R;6"0"/0,";,"/80550H"
/0(+"6//6.;-0"*,"S68(056.6",+55Q+1-6-+".+5"!9!!%"k5-8+"65"/610".+556"S68(056.6H"65-8*"+4+,-*"(*,08*""
0//081*"*,"'5-0"'.*7+"(01-86,0"/A+"5Q6()*+,-+"756/*65+"+">+8*756/*65+"1-6"4*4+,.0";,">+8*0.0".*"E08-+""
.*,6(*1(0H"/A+"1*"(6,*E+1-6"6,/A+"1;5">*6,0".+55+"/*8/056O*0,*".Q6/R;6"+".+*"567A*"*,-86_H"1;>86_"+">+8*756_
/*65*"*,"/0,-*,;6"(;-6O*0,+%"'5-8+".*,6(*/A+"E08*+8+".*">+8*/05*"10,0"*"/8055*".*"1+86//A*H".0/;(+,-6-*""
6,/A+"*,"'5-0"'.*7+"10>86--;--0"1;556"X+.8+--6"'5-6".+55Qk8-5+1H"+"56"E;1*0,+".+5">+8(6E801-H"/A+"E6408*1/+"
6"1;6"405-6"/8055*".*"80//*6H"/0(+"R;+55*"7*N"4+8*E*/6-*1*",+55+"L050(*-*%""
Siccità
\+55+"8+7*0,*"65>*,+H",0,01-6,-+"56"(6,/6,O6".*"/A*68*"-8+,.".*".*(*,;O*0,+".+556">8+/*>*-6O*0,+H"1*">8+_
4+.+";,"6;(+,-0".+5"8*1/A*0".*"1*//*-N"G=615*,7+8"+-"65%H"!9!#J%"Z;+1-0"[".04;-0"6556"/0()*,6O*0,+".*D""
(*,08*".+E5;11*"+1-*4*".04;-*"6"(+,0",+4+"+"1/0(>6816".+*"7A*6//*6*H";,6"-+,.+,O6"6."64+8+">8+/*>*-6_
O*0,*">*`"*,-+,1+"(6"(+,0"8+70568*H";,"*,/8+(+,-0".+55Q+46>086O*0,+".04;-0"6"-+(>+86-;8+">*`"65-+"+"
.+556"-861>*86O*0,+".04;-6"6"1-67*0,*"4+7+-6-*4+">*`"5;,7A+"+"0,.6-+".*"/6508+"/A+"6;(+,-6,0"56""
.0(6,.6"*.8*/6%"Z;+1-0"E6"1d"/A+"5+"1*-;6O*0,*"/8*-*/A+"5+76-+"6";1*"/0,E5*--;65*".+55Q6/R;6".*4+,-*,0">*`"
E8+R;+,-*%""
bQ'5-0"'.*7+"["7*N"+1>01-0"6"+4+,-*".*"1*//*-N%"P5"/65.0">+81*1-+,-+".+55Q+1-6-+"!99#"A6"(01-86-0"56"4;5,+86_
)*5*-N".+55+"'5>*D"*5"8*-*80".+*"7A*6//*6*"+"56"8*.;O*0,+".+5">+8(6E801-"A6"/6;16-0"E86,+H"5Q678*/05-;86"A6""
1;)d-0"*(>08-6,-*">+8.*-+"(65786.0"*88*76O*0,*"(05-0">*`"*,-+,1+"+"*"5*4+55*".*"E65.6"1*"10,0"6))6116-*%"
!2"
"
',/A+",+55+"1*//*-01+">8*(64+8+".+5"!99K"+".+5"!9&KH"1+7;*-+"6";,"*,4+8,0">0/0",+4010H"/*"10,0"1-6-+""
1*-;6O*0,*"/8*-*/A+%"F*(*5*"1*-;6O*0,*"1*"10,0"8*1/0,-86-+"6,/A+">*`"8+/+,-+(+,-+"-86"5Q*,4+8,0"!9!!"+"
5Q+1-6-+"!9!#%"b6"8*.;O*0,+".+55+",+4*/6-+"/A+"1*"["8+7*1-86-6",+75*";5-*(*"$9"6,,*"10>86--;--0"65".*"10--0"
.+*"!999"(".*"R;0-6">;h"64+8+"*(>08-6,-*"/0,1+7;+,O+"1;556".*1>0,*)*5*-N"*.8*/6H",0,"1050"*,"'5-0"'.*7+H"
+."+16/+8)68+"1*-;6O*0,*".*"1*//*-N%""
P,"'5-0"'.*7+H"5+"O0,+">*`"4;5,+86)*5*">+8"5+"8*.0--+">8+/*>*-6O*0,*"10,0"56"465"X+,01-6"+"65/;,+">68-*".+556"
(+.*6"4655+"P168/0%"'5/;,+"50/65*-N"1;5"T+,0,H"1;5"S0,O0//050"+"1;55Q65-*>*6,0".+5"(0,-+"T+7050"10,0""
*,4+/+">*`"6"4;5,+86)*5*">+8"5+"8*.0--+"8*1+84+"*.8*/A+%""
P,"7+,+865+"5+">80*+O*0,*"/5*(6-*/A+"(01-86,0";,"6;(+,-0".+5"8*1/A*0".*"1*//*-N"*.80507*/6",+556"8+7*0,+"
65>*,6H"1>+/*65(+,-+">+8"*5"4+816,-+"(+8*.*0,65+H"1+>>;8"/0,";,"/+8-0"786.0".*"*,/+8-+OO6%"P5">807+--0"
=Y.80'5>"GA-->1DIIjjj%AY.8065>%/0(I+,IJ"A6"1-;.*6-0"*5")*56,/*0".+556"465"X+,01-6"(01-86,.0"/0(+"56"
(*,08+">+8(6,+,O6".+556",+4+"65"1;050"E6//*6"*,/8+(+,-68+"E*,0"6"r!:"q"5Q+46>0-861>*86O*0,+%"Z;+1-0"
*(>5*/6"6"1;6"405-6";,6"8*.;O*0,+".+*".+E5;11*"+".+556"8*/68*/6".+55+"E65.+"*,"8+7*0,+%"'5/;,*"1/+,68*">8+4+_
.0,0";,6"1*7,*E*/6-*46"8*.;O*0,+".+55Q;(*.*-N".+5"-+88+,0".;86,-+"*5">+8*0.0"4+7+-6-*40%"P">+,.**"+1>01-*"6"
1;._+1-"10--0"R;0-6"&:99"(H".04+"7*N"086"5Q678*/05-;86".*>+,.+"E08-+(+,-+".655Q*88*76O*0,+H"10EE8*86,,0"
>*`"7*08,*"1*//*-01*%"
Qualità delle acque
C*"10,0"468*+">80)5+(6-*/A+"5+76-+"6556"R;65*-N".+55+"6/R;+"/A+"1*">0-8+))+80"67786468+">+8"+EE+--0".+*"
/6()*6(+,-*"/5*(6-*/*%"b+">8*,/*>65*"10,0"R;6--80% P5">+8(6E801-"["+1-8+(6(+,-+"1+,1*)*5+"6*"/6()*6_
(+,-*"/5*(6-*/*%"C0,"5Q6;(+,-0".+55+"-+(>+86-;8+"*5">+8(6E801-"1*"8*.;/+H"/6;16,.0"5Q*,1-6)*5*-N".+5""
-+88+,0"+"7+,+86,.0";,"+5+46-0"8*1/A*0".*"/0,-6(*,6O*0,+".+55Q6/R;6">+8"4*6".+5"8*561/*0".*"(+-655*">+_
16,-*"+"65-8+"101-6,O+"6//;(;56-+",+75*"6,,*"655Q*,-+8,0".+5">+8(6E801-% '"(6,0"6"(6,0"/A+"*"7A*6//*6*"1*"
8*-*86,0"[">011*)*5+";,"6>>08-0".*"1+.*(+,-*",+*"-088+,-*".*"08*7*,+"756/*65+H"/0,">80)5+(6-*/A+">+8""
5Q;-*5*OO0".*"R;+1-+"6/R;+">+8"1/0>*"*88*7;*"+">+8"56">80.;O*0,+"*.80+5+--8*/6% \+*">+8*0.*"*,"/;*"5+">08-6-+"
.+*"-088+,-*"10,0")611+"56"R;65*-N".+55+"6/R;+">0-8+))+"677864681*H"/0,"/0,1+7;+,-+"8*1/A*0".*"*,R;*,6_
(+,-0"+"8*561/*".6"1/68*/A*",0,".+>;86-*"/A+"4+,70,0"(+,0".*5;*-*% bQ6;(+,-0".*"-+(>+86-;86".+*"/08>*"
*.8*/*">;h"/0(>08-68+">80)5+(6-*/A+">+8"5Q+/01*1-+(6"+".6,,*"6556"E5086"+"6556"E6;,6%""
#9"
"
3.5
Movimenti di massa
b6"1-6)*5*-N".*";,"4+816,-+"["*5">80.0--0".+55Q*,-+86O*0,+".*"E6--08*".*,6(*/*"+"1-6-*/*"/A+"/0,-80556,0"50""
14*5;>>0"0"(+,0".*"E+,0(+,*".*"*,1-6)*5*-N%"Z;+1-*"E6--08*"10,0"/0(;,+(+,-+".*"-8+"-*>*D"E6--08*">&,(+M
1>'$,$%+H">&,>3&3%'&+"+"1:3%,$3$%+%"P"E6--08*">8+.*1>0,+,-*H".*",6-;86"1-6-*/6H"/0(>8+,.0,0"5+"/0,.*O*0,*"
,6-;865*"*,"/;*"1*"-8046"*5"4+816,-+H">+8"+1+(>*0"56"1;6"5*-0507*6H"56"-0>0507*6H"5+"/0,.*O*0,*"/5*(6-*/A+""
(+.*+"+"*5"8+-*/050"*.80786E*/0%"P"E6--08*">8+>686-08*"+"1/6-+,6,-*"10,0"*,4+/+".*",6-;86".*,6(*/6H"(6""
(+,-8+"*">8*(*"/0*,40570,0"/6()*6(+,-*"786.;65*H"/0(+"*5"8*-*80".+*"7A*6//*6*"+"5+"468*6O*0,*",+556"/0>+8_
-;86",+4016H"/A+"/0,-8*);*1/0,0"6"468*6O*0,*",+556".*,6(*/6"/5*(6-*/6"8+7*0,65+H"*"E6--08*"1/6-+,6,-*H"0"
-8*77+8H"/088*1>0,.0,0"6"+4+,-*".*")8+4+".;86-6"/A+"*,,+1/6,0"*5"(+//6,*1(0".*"*,1-6)*5*-NH">+8"+1+(>*0"
+4+,-*"/0(+">8+/*>*-6O*0,*")8+4*"+"*,-+,1+%"
P5"1;>+86(+,-0".+5"5*(*-+".*"1-6)*5*-N".*";,"/+8-0"4+816,-+"["R;*,.*"5+76-0"6556"/0(>68-+/*>6O*0,+".*""
R;+1-*"-8+"E6--08*H"56"/;*"*,E5;+,O6",0,"["0(07+,6"*,"07,*"5;070"G<*7;86"&&J%"'">68*-N".*"E6--08*">8+.*1>0_
,+,-*H";,"/+8-0"E6--08+"1/6-+,6,-+H">+8"+1+(>*0";,"+4+,-0"(+-+080507*/0"+1-8+(0H">0110,0"/6;168+"*5"
8677*;,7*(+,-0"+I0"*5"1;>+86(+,-0".+5"5*(*-+".*"1-6)*5*-N"*,,+1/6,.0";,"(04*(+,-0".*"(6116%"
"
"
Figura 11: Schema esplicativo dei possibili fattori che condizionano il raggiungimento del limite di stabilità di un
versante. Il superamento della linea tratteggiata rossa (limite di stabilità) è legato alla somma di fattori statici (fat-
tori predisponenti) e dinamici (fattori preparatori, trigger potenziali). A parità di uno di questi tre fattori, la diversa
intensità con cui si verificano gli altri condiziona l’instaurarsi di fenomeni di instabilità (Steger et al., 2024)
"
C0,"*5"-+8(*,+"f(04*(+,-*".*"(6116g"1*"*,.*/6,0"R;+*"E+,0(+,*"/A+"8*7;68.6,0"*5"(04*(+,-0".*"(6-+_
8*65+"1;556"1;>+8E*/*+"-+88+1-8+"+"/A+"644+,70,0">8+465+,-+(+,-+"*,"1+7;*-0"655Q6O*0,+".+556"E08O6".*""
7864*-N"+"/0(+"/0,1+7;+,O6".*"+4+,-*"6-(01E+8*/*"*(>8044*1*"+"*,-+,1*"0>>;8+">805;,76-*"+"/01-6,-*%"
P5"8*1/65.6(+,-0"750)65+"+"5+"(0.*E*/A+"65"8+7*(+".+55+">8+/*>*-6O*0,*"/0,"/0,1+7;+,-+"(0.*E*/6O*0,+"
.+55Q+1-+,1*0,+".+556"/8*01E+86"/0,-8*);*1/0,0"6"8+70568+"56"E8+R;+,O6"+"56"(67,*-;.0".+*"(04*(+,-*".*"
(6116">8+.*1>0,+,.0"0"*,,+1/6,.0"1;*"4+816,-*".+E08(6O*0,*">8078+11*4+"+"5+,-+".+55Q6((6110""
80//*010H"/01d"/0(+"E+,0(+,*">*`"86>*.*"+"/6-61-80E*/*"R;65*"rock avalanches"G4656,7A+".*"80//*6J"0"/8055*%""
b0"14*5;>0".*"R;+1-*"+4+,-*"["*,"56876">68-+"(0.;56-0".655+".*,6(*/A+"1-67*0,65*"+".675*"+4+,-*"+1-8+(*"
/A+H"6"/6;16".+5"/6()*6(+,-0"/5*(6-*/0H"1-6,,0"/0(*,/*6,.0"6"4+8*E*/681*"/0,"E8+R;+,O6"1+(>8+"(67_
7*08+%"'550"1-+110"(0.0"6,/A+"5+"(0.*E*/A+"6,-80>*/A+",+55Q;10".+5"1;050"A6,,0";,"8;050".0(*,6,-+"
,+55Q*,,+1/0".*"E86,+"1;>+8E*/*65*"+"1/*4056(+,-*"+"6;(+,-6,0"*5"8*1/A*0"/0,,+110"655Q*(>6--0">0-+,O*65+"
/0,"5+"*,E861-8;--;8+%"
P,")61+"65"-*>0".*"(04*(+,-0"/A+"/0,-80556"*5"(6-+8*65+"1*">0110,0".*1-*,7;+8+"-8+"(6/80_-*>0507*+".*"(0_
4*(+,-*".*"(6116D"2;)11'"G0"/056(+,-0JH":&';;'"+"1:+D';38,$%'"G0"1/088*(+,-0J"G=;,78"+-"65%H"!9&$J%"U65*"
>80/+11*"/0*,40570,0"(6-+8*65*".*4+81*"*,")61+"655Q6()*+,-+"+"655+"/686--+8*1-*/A+"7+0507*/A+"+"7+0(08E0_
507*/A+"*,"/;*"1*"14*5;>>6,0%"b+"-8+"-*>0507*+".*"(04*(+,-0"4+,70,0".*1/;11+"*,".+--675*0",+5"1+7;*-0%"
(b) (d)
(c)
(a)
tempo tempo
tempo tempo
potenziale innesco
fattore preparatorio
fattore di predisposizione
stabile
instabile
marginalmente
stabili
Margine di stabilità
statico
dinamico
#&"
"
Flusso o colamento
3,"E5;110"0"/056(+,-0"[";,"(04*(+,-0"1>6O*65(+,-+"/0,-*,;0"*,"/;*"5+"1;>+8E*/*".*"-675*0"10,0".*")8+4+"
.;86-6H"1-8+--6(+,-+".*1-6,O*6-+"+".*"105*-0",0,"1*"/0,1+846,0".0>0"5Q+4+,-0%""
bQ*88+70568*-N".+75*"+4+,-*"(+-+080507*/*"*,-+,1*"+"*5"/0,1+7;+,-+"6>>08-0".*"*(>08-6,-*"R;6,-*-N".*"6/R;6"
10,0"-86"*">8*,/*>65*"E6--08*">8+.*1>0,+,-*"+"*,,+1/6,-*".+*"(+//6,*1(*".*"E5;110D"*5"(6-+8*65+H"80//*6H""
.+-8*-0"0",+4+H"["(0)*5*OO6-0">+8"6>>08-0".*",0-+405*"R;6,-*-N".*"6/R;6"+"A6"/686--+8*">68670,6)*5*"6"
R;+55*".*";,"E5;110"4*1/010%"b+"/056-+"1*"*,/6,656,0",+75*"*(>5;4*"+"/081*".Q6/R;6"*,780116,.05*"+"-861>08_
-6,.0"/0,"1c"6,/A+"-80,/A*"+"(611*".*".*(+,1*0,*"/0,1*.+8+405*%"Z;6,.0"56">+,.+,O6".+5"-+88+,0""
.*(*,;*1/+H"*5"E5;110"8655+,-6"+".+>01*-6"*5"(6-+8*65+%"W4+,-*".*"R;+1-0"-*>0"10,0"R;+55*".+5"5;75*0"!9!#"*,"
/;*"*5"-088+,-+"<;8/*6"A6".*1-8;--0".*4+81*">0,-*",+5"/0(;,+".*"X65.6086H"/0>8+,.0"5+"1-86.+"+"75*"+.*E*/*".*"
E6,70H"+"*5">68/A+77*0".*"@*1/*6.`H"10--0"65">6110"V68.+,6H"["1-6-0"*,4610".65"(6-+8*65+".+-8*-*/0"+""
E6,7010"-861>08-6-0".6";,6"1+8*+".*"/056-+%"
U86"*"E+,0(+,*".*"E5;110"1*"6,,04+86,0"6,/A+"65/;,*"-*>*".*"4656,7A+%"b+"468*6O*0,*"/5*(6-*/A+H"*,"(0.0"
>8*,/*>65+"5+"468*6O*0,*".*"-+(>+86-;86"+"5Q*,,65O6(+,-0".+550"O+80"-+8(*/0"6,/A+",+556"1-67*0,+"*,4+8_
,65+H"/01d"/0(+"*"(;-6(+,-*",+*"8+7*(*".*">8+/*>*-6O*0,+H"*,/5;1+">8+/*>*-6O*0,*"5*R;*.+"1;556",+4+H""
>0110,0">08-68+"6"(0.*E*/A+".+5"(6,-0",+4010"/A+">8040/6,0"5Q*,,+1/0".+556"4656,76%"
b+".*8+--+"/0,1+7;+,O+".*"R;+1-*"E+,0(+,*"10,0"5Q*,-+88;O*0,+".*"1+,-*+8*"+"1-86.+H"5Q01-8;O*0,+".*"/081*"
.Q6/R;6"*,"/;*"1*"*,/6,656"*5"(6-+8*65+"+"*5".6,,+77*6(+,-0".*"*,E861-8;--;8+"6,/A+"(05-0".*1-6,-*".6556"
O0,6".*"*,,+1/0%
Crolli
P5"-+8(*,+"/80550"1*"8*E+8*1/+"6";,6"(6116".*";,6"R;651*61*".*(+,1*0,+"+"(6-+8*65+"G>+8"+1+(>*0"80//*6H"
7A*6//*0J"/A+"1*"1-6//6".6";,"4+816,-+"1;)4+8-*/65+"5;,70";,6"1;>+8E*/*+"1;"/;*",0,"644*+,+",+11;,0""
1>01-6(+,-0".*"-675*0"+"/A+"1;//+11*46(+,-+"1*"(;04+">+8"/6.;-6"5*)+86H"80-056(+,-0"+"8*()65O0%"P5""
(04*(+,-0"["+1-8+(6(+,-+"86>*.0"+"56"O0,6".*"65*(+,-6O*0,+"["/686--+8*OO6-6".6";,6"1;>+8E*/*+"/0,-805_
56-6".6"7*;,-*"+"E86--;8+%"C0,.*O*0,*">8+.*1>0,+,-*"10,0"56"5*-0507*6H"50"1-6-0".*".6,,+77*6(+,-0".+55Q"
6((6110"80//*010"+"56">011*)*5+">8+1+,O6".*">+8(6E801-"*,"O0,+".*"65-6"R;0-6%"<6--08*"1/6-+,6,-*"10,0"*"
E+,0(+,*"(+-+080507*/*">805;,76-*"+I0"*,-+,1*"/A+"/6;16,0"*,E*5-86O*0,+".Q6/R;6",+55+"E86--;8+H"/*/5*"7+50_
.*17+50H"5Q+1/;81*0,+"-+8(*/6"+";,6"10--0+1/646O*0,+".+5"4+816,-+">+8"+801*0,+",6-;865+"0"/6;1+"6,-80>*_
/A+%"b6"(04*(+,-6O*0,+".*"*,7+,-*"405;(*"80//*01*">;h"*,"65/;,*"/61*"+4054+8+"*,"rock avalanche"/A+"/0*,_
40570,0"6(>*"1+--08*".*"4+816,-*"+"1*"14*5;>>6,0",+5"E0,.04655+"1>+110"1;"786,.*".*1-6,O+%""
P,"6()*+,-+".*"65-6"R;0-6"1*">0110,0"4+8*E*/68+"6,/A+"/8055*"*,"7A*6//*0"5+76-*"1*6"655Q*,,65O6(+,-0".+55+"
-+(>+86-;8+"1*6"655Q6;(+,-0".*">8+/*>*-6O*0,*"5*R;*.+"/A+"*,.;/0,0"*,E*5-86O*0,*".Q6/R;6"6--864+810"5+"
/8+>+".+5"7A*6//*0H"/8+6,.0">8+11*0,*"*.801-6-*/A+"+5+46-+%"F+"R;+1-6">8+11*0,+"6;(+,-6"1*7,*E*/6-*46_
(+,-+">;h"4+8*E/681*"*5".*1-6//0".*"786,.*")50//A*".*"7A*6//*0%"
'"/6;16".+55+"/686--+8*1-*/A+"7+0(08E0507*/A+".+55Q'5-0"'.*7+H"56"(677*08">68-+".+75*"+4+,-*"/A+"1*"4+8*E*_
/6,0"10,0"/055+76-*"6*"/8055*%"'"/6;16".+556"5080"6))0,.6,O6H".+556"(6,/6,O6"R;61*"-0-65+".*"1+7,65*""
>8+/;8108*"+".+556"86>*.*-N"/0,"/;*"1*"4+8*E*/6,0H"R;+1-*"+4+,-*">0110,0"/0(>08-68+"/0,1+7;+,O+"-65405-6"
(05-0"7864*D"*"(677*08*".6,,*"1*"A6,,0"1;55+"*,E861-8;--;8+"5*,+68*"G>+8"+1+(>*0"*,-+88;O*0,+".*"1-86.+JH"
(6">0110,0"6,/A+"8*7;68.68+"1+,-*+8*"+1/;81*0,*1-*/*H".+4*6-*"0"*,-+880--*H"+."+.*E*/*%"
V5*"+4+,-*".*"/6.;-6".*"(611*",0,"8*1;5-6,0"(0.;56-*".6";,6"1-67*0,65*-N"+4*.+,-+H"(6"1*"4+8*E*/6,0"*,""
(6,*+86"8+56-*46(+,-+";,*E08(+",+55Q68/0".+55Q6,,0%"b6"<*7;86"&!"(01-86H"-;--64*6H"/0(+",+55Q;5-*(0""
.+/+,,*0"8*1>+--0"65".+/+,,*0">8+/+.+,-+"1*"1*6"8+7*1-86-0";,"6;(+,-0".+75*"+4+,-*".*"/80550"*,"6;-;,,0"
8*1>+--0"6556"1-67*0,+">8*(64+8*5+H">80)6)*5(+,-+"*,E5;+,O6-0".6";,6"1*(*5+"468*6O*0,+",+5"8+7*(+".+55+"
>8+/*>*-6O*0,*%"
#!"
"
"
Figura 12: Istogramma relativo al numero di crolli registrati per ogni giorno dell’anno nei decenni 2000-2010 (az-
zurro) e 2011-2022 (rosso) (fonte dati: catalogo IFFI). Le curve di densità di probabilità, sovrapposte all’istogramma,
approssimano l’andamento delle barre, fornendo una visualizzazione più immediata della distribuzione dei feno-
meni. Tale distribuzione evidenzia come ci sia un aumento dei fenomeni di crollo in autunno nel decennio più re-
cente
Scivolamento o scorrimento
\+75*"1/*4056(+,-*"1*"A6".+E08(6O*0,+".*"-675*0"+".*"1>01-6(+,-0"5;,70";,6"0">*`"1;>+8E*/*H"0"+,-80";,0"
1>+1108+"5*(*-6-0".+5"(6-+8*65+"/0,.*O*0,6-0".6556"468*6O*0,+".+55+">80>8*+-N"7+0-+/,*/A+"G>+8"+1+(>*0"
.*4+810"786.0".*"65-+86O*0,+"+"/0,-861-0".*">+8(+6)*5*-NJ%"Z;+1-*"(04*(+,-*">0110,0"/0*,4057+8+""
1>+1108*">*`"0"(+,0"*(>08-6,-*".*"1;050H".+-8*-0"0"80//*6"6"1+/0,.6"/A+"4+,76,0"(04*(+,-6-*".+>01*-*"
R;6-+8,68*"G756/*65*IE5;4*0"756/*65*J"0"1-86-*"80//*01*%"',65076(+,-+"6*"E+,0(+,*".*"/6.;-6"(611*H",+55Q"
;5-*(0".+/+,,*0"*,"'5-0"'.*7+"1*"["611*1-*-0"6";,0"1>01-6(+,-0".+5">*//0".+*"E+,0(+,*".*"1/*4056_
(+,-0I1/088*(+,-0"4+810"5Q6;-;,,0"G1*"4+.6"<*7;86"&#JH"*,">68-+"*,E5;+,O6-0".6"1*(*5*"468*6O*0,*",+5""
8+7*(+".+55+">8+/*>*-6O*0,*%"
b6"4+7+-6O*0,+H"61108)+,.0"6/R;6".65"1;050"6--864+810"5+"86.*/*"+"8+1-*-;+,.056"655Q6-(01E+86"-86(*-+"
5Q+46>0-861>*86O*0,+H"14057+";,"*(>08-6,-+"8;050".*"1-6)*5*OO6O*0,+".+5"-+88+,0%"U;--64*6H"*,"6;-;,,0H"
R;6,.0"5+">8+/*>*-6O*0,*"10,0">*`"+5+46-+H"56"4+7+-6O*0,+",0,"[">*`"*,"786.0".*"14057+8+"R;+1-*">80/+11*H"
/6;16,.0"1048616-;86O*0,+".+5"-+88+,0H"8*.;O*0,+".+556"/0+1*0,+".+5"1;050"+H".*"/0,1+7;+,O6H";,""
6;(+,-0".+556"1;1/+--*)*5*-N"6"E+,0(+,*".*"*,1-6)*5*-N"/0(+"E86,+"1;>+8E*/*65*"0"1(0--6(+,-*%"
b+"/6;1+"1/6-+,6,-*"10,0"R;*,.*".6"8*-804681*",+55+">8+/*>*-6O*0,*"*,-+,1+"+"10,0"1-8+--6(+,-+"5+76-+"
655Q;10"6,-80>*/0".+5"1;050%"X6"*,E6--*"+4*.+,O*6-0"/0(+"(05-*"+4+,-*H"6,/A+"1+".*".*(+,1*0,*"8*.0--+H"
10,0"1>+110"5+76-*"6";,"1*1-+(6".*".8+,677*0"*,6.+7;6-0"0"(6,/6,-+H"/A+"E6408*1/+"5Q6//;(;50".*"6/R;6"
,+5"-+88+,0"+"5Q*,1087+,O6".*"1>*,-+"*.801-6-*/A+"655Q*,-+8,0".+550"1-+110%""
"
primavera estate autunno inverno
0
10
20
30
40
0 100 200 300
Giorno dellʼanno
Numero eventi (istogramma)
2000−2010 2011−2022
0.000
0.001
0.002
0.003
0.004
Densità di probabilità (linee)
##"
"
"
Figura 13: Istogramma relativo al numero di scivolamenti e colamenti per ogni giorno dell’anno nei decenni 2000-
2010 (azzurro) e 2011-2022 (rosso). La curva di densità di probabilità, sovrapposta all’istogramma a barre, mostra
un netto aumento nel decennio più recente del numero di fenomeni nel tardo autunno/inizio inverno rispetto alla
stagione tardo primaverile-estiva
Bibliografia
– Allamano, P., Claps, P., Laio, F., 2009. Global warming increases flood risk in mountainous areas. Geophys. Res. Lett. 36,
L24404. https://doi.org/10.1029/2009GL041395
– Avanzi, F., Munerol, F., Milelli, M., Gabellani, S., Massari, C., Girotto, M., Cremonese, E., Galvagno, M., Bruno, G., Morra Di
Cella, U., Rossi, L., Altamura, M., Ferraris, L., 2024. Winter snow deficit was a harbinger of summer 2022 socio-hydrologic
drought in the Po Basin, Italy. Commun. Earth Environ. 5, 64. https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-024-01222-z
– Beniston, M., Farinotti, D., Stoffel, M., Andreassen, L.M., Coppola, E., Eckert, N., Fantini, A., Giacona, F., Hauck, C., Huss, M.,
Huwald, H., Lehning, M., López-Moreno, J.-I., Magnusson, J., Marty, C., Morán-Tejéda, E., Morin, S., Naaim, M., Provenzale,
A., Rabatel, A., Six, D., Stötter, J., Strasser, U., Terzago, S., Vincent, C., 2018. The European mountain cryosphere: a review of
its current state, trends, and future challenges. The Cryosphere 12, 759–794. https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-759-2018
– Bertoldi, G., Bozzoli, M., Crespi, A., Matiu, M., Giovannini, L., Zardi, D., Majone, B., 2023. Diverging snowfall trends across
months and elevation in the northeastern Italian Alps. Int. J. Climatol. 43, 2794–2819. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.8002
– Cannon, A.J., Sobie, S.R., Murdock, T.Q., 2015. Bias Correction of GCM Precipitation by Quantile Mapping: How Well Do
Methods Preserve Changes in Quantiles and Extremes? J. Clim. 28, 6938–6959. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00754.1
– Chiogna, G., Majone, B., Cano Paoli, K., Diamantini, E., Stella, E., Mallucci, S., Lencioni, V., Zandonai, F., Bellin, A., 2015. A re-
view of hydrological and chemical stressors in the Adige catchment and its ecological status. Sci. Total Environ.
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2015.06.149
– Crespi, A., Matiu, M., Bertoldi, G., Petitta, M., Zebisch, M., 2021. A high-resolution gridded dataset of daily temperature and
precipitation records (1980–2018) for Trentino-South Tyrol (north-eastern Italian Alps). Earth Syst. Sci. Data 13, 2801–2818.
https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-2801-2021
– Engel, M., Penna, D., Bertoldi, G., Dell’Agnese, A., Soulsby, C., Comiti, F., 2016. Identifying runoff contributions during melt-
induced runoff events in a glacierized Alpine catchment. Hydrological Processes 343–364.
– Galos, S., Klug, C., Dinale, R., 2023. 20 YEARS OF GLACIER CHANGE: THE HOMOGENIZED GLACIER INVENTORIES FOR SOUTH
TYROL 1997-2005-2017 45, 71–83. https://doi.org/10.4461/GFDQ.2022.45.6
– Haslinger, K., Schöner, W., Abermann, J., Laaha, G., Andre, K., Olefs, M., Koch, R., 2023. Apparent contradiction in the pro-
jected climatic water balance for Austria: wetter conditions on average versus higher probability of meteorological droughts.
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. 23, 2749–2768. https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2749-2023
– Hungr, O., Leroueil, S., Picarelli, L., 2014. The Varnes classification of landslide types, an update. Landslides 11, 167–194.
https://doi.org/10.1007/s10346-013-0436-y
primavera estate autunno inverno
0
25
50
75
100
0 100 200 300
Giorno dellʼanno
Numero eventi (istogramma)
2000−2010 2011−2022
0.000
0.002
0.004
0.006
Densità di probabilità (linee)
#$"
"
– Jacob, D., Petersen, J., Eggert, B., Alias, A., Christensen, O.B., Bouwer, L.M., Braun, A., Colette, A., Déqué, M., Georgievski, G.,
Georgopoulou, E., Gobiet, A., Menut, L., Nikulin, G., Haensler, A., Hempelmann, N., Jones, C., Keuler, K., Kovats, S., Kröner,
N., Kotlarski, S., Kriegsmann, A., Martin, E., van Meijgaard, E., Moseley, C., Pfeifer, S., Preuschmann, S., Radermacher, C.,
Radtke, K., Rechid, D., Rounsevell, M., Samuelsson, P., Somot, S., Soussana, J.-F., Teichmann, C., Valentini, R., Vautard, R.,
Weber, B., Yiou, P., 2014. EURO-CORDEX: new high-resolution climate change projections for European impact research. Reg.
Environ. Change 14, 563–578. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-013-0499-2
– Majone, B., Villa, F., Deidda, R., Bellin, A., 2016. Impact of climate change and water use policies on hydropower potential in
the south-eastern Alpine region. Sci. Total Environ. 543, 965–980. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2015.05.009
– Mallucci, S., Majone, B., Bellin, A., 2017. Driver detection of water availability changes in a large Alpine river basin. Geophysi-
cal Research Abstracts.
– Penna, D., Engel, M., Mao, L., Dell’Agnese, A., Bertoldi, G., Comiti, F., 2014. Tracer-based analysis of spatial and temporal
variations of water sources in a glacierized catchment. Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. 18, 5271–5288. https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-
18-5271-2014
– Rauter, W., 1999. Relazione sullo stato della falda freatica nella conca di Bolzano. Bolzano
– Shrestha, S., Terzi, S., Zoccatelli, D., Zaramella, M., Borga, M., Callegari, M., Galletti, A., Dinale, R., Pittore, M., and Bertoldi, G.
(2024, in preparation). Glacier Contributions to Hydrological Droughts in Mountainous Regions: insights from the Adige River
Basin. NHESS Journal
– Steger, S., Moreno, M., Crespi, A., Gariano, S.L., Brunetti, M. T., Melillo, M., Peruaccacci S., Marra, F., de Vugt, L., Zieher, T.,
Rutzinger, M., Mair, C., Pittore, M., 2024: Adopting the margin of stability for space–time landslide prediction – A data-driven
approach for generating spatial dynamic thresholds. Geoscience Frontiers, Vol. 15, Issue 5.
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gsf.2024.101822
#:"
"
4 Analisi dei rischi climatici e necessità di
adattamento
Autore: Marc Zebisch
"
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"
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"
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"
"
"
Figura 14: Concetto di rischio climatico e fattori di rischio e ruolo dell'adattamento
Exposition
L'adattamento riduce i rischi
climatici riducendo la vulnerabilità
(e possibilmente l'esposizione).
Altri fattori di rischio,
ad esempio tendenze
generali o fattori esterni
Altri fattori di rischio,
ad esempio tendenze
generali o fattori esterni
Chi o che cosa è suscettibile?
Qual è l'intensità degli eventi?
Aumento dell'esposizione
dovuto ad altri fattori di
rischio
Ecosistemi e loro funzioni
Sistemi sici (ad es.
infrastrutture)
Persone
Sistemi economici
Sistemi e funzioni sociali
Esposizione
su sistemi esposti e
vulnerabili
Eetti diretti
su acqua, neve e ghiaccio,
ecosistemi, salute, ...
Eetti indiretti
su agricoltura, energia,
turismo, economia, ...
Eetti a cascata
Potenziali eetti negativi –>
rischi climatici
Sensibilità (suscettibilità) agli impatti climatici dei
sistemi ecologici, sici e umani. Aumento della
sensibilità dovuto ad altri fattori di rischio
Mancanza di capacità di adattamento e di intervento
Mancanza di soluzioni e alternative tecniche
Mancanza di esperienza
Mancanza di conoscenze
Mancanza di risorse (nanziarie, umane)
Mancanza di strumenti politici
Mancanza di considerazione istituzionale e di
cooperazione
Mancanza di volontà di adattamento al cambiamen-
to climatico ...
Vulnerabilità
Pericoli legati al clima (oggi e in futuro)
Cambiamento climatico
generale: estati più calde e
secche; inverni più umidi e
miti.
Ondate di calore e
periodi di siccità più
intensi, più lunghi e più
frequenti
Forte precipitazioni
e temporali più
intensi
Adattamento
#?"
"
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"
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"
"
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G/E8%"/6>*-050"?J%" "
#B"
"
4.1
Gestione delle acque
Autore e Autrice: Giacomo Bertoldi, Viola Ducati
"
"
Figura 15: Catena degli impatti per visualizzare la pericolosità, l'esposizione e la vulnerabilità del settore della
gestione delle acque
"
Introduzione
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.+55+">8+/*>*-6O*0,*"+"5Q6;(+,-0".+556"E8+R;+,O6"+".+55Q*,-+,1*-N".*"E+,0(+,*"(+-+080507*/*"+1-8+(*"/0(+"
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)*5+%"P5"/*/50".+55Q6/R;6"*,"(0,-67,6"1-6"86>*.6(+,-+"/6()*6,.0D".*(*,;*1/0,0"5+"7*08,6-+"/0,",+4+"65"
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,6-;865+"+"68-*E*/*65+H"*,/5;10"*5"E6))*107,0"*88*7;0".+55Q678*/05-;86%"F*"(0.*E*/6".;,R;+"56".*1>0,*)*5*-N"
*.8*/6"1-67*0,65+H"(+,-8+"6;(+,-6"56".0(6,.6"*.8*/6"1*6">+8"+EE+--0".+*"/6()*6(+,-*"/5*(6-*/*"/A+">+8"
.8*4+8".*"-*>0"+/0,0(*/0%"
P,"611+,O6".*">05*-*/A+".*"7+1-*0,+".+55Q6/R;6"6.6--6-+"675*"1/+,68*"/5*(6-*/*"E;-;8*"*5"8*1/A*0"["/A+"6;(+,_
-*,0"*"/0,E5*--*"7*N"*,"+11+8+"+"/A+",+"10876,0",;04*"-86"5+".*4+81+">68-*"*,-+8+116-+%"
Aumento del fabbisogno
idrico (agricoltura,
turismo, famiglie)
Insuciente valutazione
degli estremi climatici e
dei cambiamenti
climatici nei piani di
gestione (acqua, energia)
Gestione delle acque
Legame con i rischi climatici:
Energia, agricoltura, gestione forestale, turismo, economia, insediamenti, biodiversità, salute
Mancanza della capacità di trattenere
lʼacqua nel paesaggio (Degrado delle zone
umide, mancanza di aree di conservazione e
di foreste alluvionali, impermeabilizzazione)
Aumento dei periodi di siccità
Aumento delle temperature
Pioggia forte e più intensa Meno neve + sciogli-
mento dei ghiacciai
Riduzione della qualità
dellʼacqua (a causa
dell'alta temperatura e
del basso deusso)
Danni agli ecosistemi
Ridotta capacità
di trattenere l'acqua
Periodi di siccità più
intensi e prolungati,
mancanza d'acqua
Aumento del trasporto
di sedimenti
Alluvioni
Turismo
Carenza dʼacqua per la
produzione di neve
Carenza dʼacqua per
l'irrigazione
Deterioramento della
qualità dell'acqua potabile
Carenza dʼacqua per la
produzione di energia
Impatto negativo sugli
ecosistemi dovuto
all'aumento della
temperatura dellʼacqua
Impatto negativo sugli
ecosistemi acquatici a
causa della carenza
d'acqua
Impatto negativo sugli
ecosistemi dovuto
all'aumento della
temperatura dell'acqua
Danni agli ecosistemi
e alle infrastrutture
causati dalle inonda-
zioni
Carenza dʼacqua per il
turismo estivo (hotel,
wellness)
EnergiaAgricolturaInfrastrutture Ambiente ed ecosistemi
Pericoli legati al clima
Impatti climatici
Sistemi esposti
Vulnerabilità, fattori di rischio non climatici
Rischio principale con necessità di intervento
urgente alto medio
Esterno: aumento del
fabbisogno idrico a valle
dellʼAdige (Trentino,
Veneto).
#2"
"
"
!"#"#
$%&'()*(+(,+(-./'/*(%'+
Cause dei rischi
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O*0,+".+*".+E5;11*",+5"/0810".+55Q6,,0"+".+5"/*/50"*.80507*/0H"/0,"*5"/0,1+7;+,-+"6;(+,-0".+5">+8*/050".*"
1*//*-NH"+"6--864+810"5Q6;(+,-0".+55+"-+(>+86-;8+H"/0,"*5"/0,1+7;+,-+"6;(+,-0".+556"-+(>+86-;86".+55+"
6/R;+"+"*(>6--*".*8+--*"+"*,.*8+--*"1;556"E5086"+"1;556"E6;,6"6/R;6-*/A+%"bQ6;(+,-0".+55+"-+(>+86-;8+""
*,E5;*1/+"6,/A+"1;55Q6//+5+86O*0,+".+550"1/*075*(+,-0".+*"7A*6//*6*H"/0,"*5"/0,1+7;+,-+"6;(+,-0".+5""
-861>08-0".*"1+.*(+,-*H"+".;,R;+"/0,"5Q6//+5+86O*0,+".+5">80/+110".*"*,-+886(+,-0".+*")6/*,*"+"(677*08*"
>+8-;8)6O*0,*".+*"1*1-+(*"E5;4*65*%"C0,"*5">8078+.*8+".+556".+756/*6O*0,+"+"56".*(*,;O*0,+".+75*"6>>08-*""
,+401*"6;(+,-6"6,/A+"*5">+8*/050".*"1/681*-N"*.8*/6"+1-*40%""
Situazione attuale
F*"8+7*1-86,0"1*7,*E*/6-*4*"(*75*086(+,-*"8*1>+--0"6"!9"6,,*"E6",+556"7+1-*0,+"E5;4*65+H"10>86--;--0">+8"
R;6,-0"8*7;68.6"56"R;65*-N".+55Q6/R;6"GT;EE*,*"x"@055*,7+8H"!9&KJH"(6"6,/A+">+8"56"R;6,-*-NH"786O*+"655Q*,_
-80.;O*0,+".+5"4*,/050".*"8*561/*68+",+*"/081*".y6/R;6";,".+E5;110"(*,*(0">+8"7686,-*8,+"56"E;,O*0,65*-N"
+/0507*/6%"C0(;,R;+H"R;+1-0"7+,+865(+,-+"/A*6(6-0"f.+E5;110"(*,*(0"4*-65+g"GLSXJ"0">*`"/088+--6_
(+,-+"f.+E5;110"+/0507*/0g">;h"+11+8+"101>+10"6"E6408+".+55w;10"*88*7;0",+55+"O0,+".+E*,*-+"68*.+%""
F0>86--;--0",+5"/610".*"/68+,O6"*.8*/6H"*"/0,E5*--*"50/65*"+"8+7*0,65*">+8"5Q;-*5*OO0".+55Q6/R;6"R;*,.*"10,0""
/0(;,*H"*,">8*(*1"-86"75*";-*5*OO*"*88*7;*"+"R;+55*"+,+87+-*/*">+8"*5"8*1>+--0".+5"LSX%""
Potenziale situazione futura
b6".*(*,;O*0,+".+75*"6>>08-*",*40_756/*65*"+";,6"(677*08+"E8+R;+,O6".*"1*-;6O*0,*".*"1*//*-N"+"0,.6-+".*"
/6508+">0-86,,0".+-+8(*,68+";,6"8*.;O*0,+".+556">08-6-6".+*"E*;(*H"/0,"/0,1+7;+,-*"*(>6--*"1;55Q+/0507*6"
.+*"E*;(*%"F*">8+4+.0,0"6,/A+"8*1/A*"5+76-*"65">+77*086(+,-0".+556"R;65*-N".+55Q6/R;6H"/6;16-*"1*6".655Q"
6;(+,-0".+556"-+(>+86-;86"(+.*6".+55+"6/R;+"1*6H"*,"1*-;6O*0,*".*"/68+,O6"*.8*/6H".6556"(*,08+".*5;*O*0,+"
.+75*"*,R;*,6,-*%""
Potenziale di adattamento
F68+))+"0>>08-;,0"1>+8*(+,-68+";,"L+E5;110"S*,*(0"X*-65+".*,6(*/0",+550"1>6O*0"+",+5"-+(>0H">+8"(0_
.;568+"*5">8+5*+40".*"6/R;6".6"567A*"+"E*;(*"7686,-+,.0"56"165;-+".+75*"+/01*1-+(*%"F+84*8N"*,05-8+"8*.;88+"*5"
/0,1;(0"*.8*/0"+"5Q*,R;*,6(+,-0"/0,"5Q0)*+--*40".*">8+1+8468+"+/01*1-+(*"*,"165;-+"+"6."65-6")*0.*4+81*-NH"
8+1*5+,-*"+"*,"786.0".*"E08,*8+"*"1+84*O*"+/01*1-+(*/*"/055+76-*"/0,"5Q6/R;6"6,/A+"*,"/0,.*O*0,*"/5*(6-*/A+"
(;-6-+%""
"
!"#"0
1/.+-'2'3(+(+,.%(/4-.+
Cause dei rischi
b6"/68+,O6"*.8*/6"+"75*"+4+,-*"+1-8+(*H"6,/A+"655;4*0,65*H"(*,6//*6,0"56".*1>0,*)*5*-N"+"56"R;65*-N".+55Q6/R;6"
>+8";10"/*4*5+%"W4+,-*"(+-+080507*/*"+1-8+(*"/0(+">8+/*>*-6O*0,*"*,-+,1+">0110,0">8040/68+"*,0,.6O*0,*"
/0,"/0,1+7;+,-*"*,-+88;O*0,*",+*"1+84*O*".*".*1-8*);O*0,+".*"6/R;6">0-6)*5+"+"86//05-6".+55+"6/R;+"8+E5;+%""
Situazione attuale
b+".*EE+8+,O+"-+88*-08*65*",+556".*1>0,*)*5*-N".*"6/R;6"8*/A*+.0,0";,0"1-;.*0".*".+--675*0".+55+".*4+81+"O0,+"
.+55Q'5-0"'.*7+%"'8++">68-*/0568(+,-+"4;5,+86)*5*"10,0"5+"O0,+".*"4+816,-+"/0,"E65.+"6/R;*E+8+"1;>+8E*/*65*"
+">0/0"+1-+1+"+"5+"68++"6>>8044*7*0,6-+".6"1*1-+(*"6/R;+.0--*1-*/*">*//05*"+",0,"/0,,+11*"-86"5080%"',/A+"
5Q65-0"5*4+550".*".*1>+81*0,+"*.8*/6"*,E5;*1/+"1;556".*1>0,*)*5*-N".*"6/R;6">+8"75*";1*"/*4*5*"+".0(+1-*/*%"
Potenziale situazione futura
F*">8+4+.+";,"6;(+,-0".+5"8*1/A*0".*"/68+,O6"*.8*/6H"/0,"*5"/0,1+7;+,-+"8*1/A*0".*".*(*,;O*0,+".+556".*_
1>0,*)*5*-N"+".+556"R;65*-N".+55Q6/R;6">0-6)*5+%"bQ6;(+,-0".+55+"-+(>+86-;8+"8*1/A*6".*"*(>6--68+"
$9"
"
,+76-*46(+,-+"1;55+"6/R;+"10--+886,++H"1*6"*,"-+8(*,*".*"R;6,-*-N"/A+".*"R;65*-N%"',/A+"75*"+4+,-*"(+-+0_
80507*/*"+1-8+(*">0-86,,0">+77*0868+"56"R;65*-N".+55Q6/R;6".+1-*,6-6"6";10">0-6)*5+"0"/6;168+"5Q*,-+88;_
O*0,+".+*"1+84*O*".*".*1-8*);O*0,+"+"86//05-6".+55+"6/R;+%""
Potenziale di adattamento
F68N"0>>08-;,0"/055+768+"*"1*1-+(*".*".*1-8*);O*0,+".+55Q6/R;6"*,"1*1-+(*"*,-+786-*"+">*`"8+1*5*+,-*H""
1;>+86,.0"5Q6--;65+"E86((+,-6O*0,+%"F+84*8N"*,05-8+"(*75*0868+"5Q+EE*/*+,O6".+*"1*1-+(*".*".*1-8*);O*0,+H"
>80(;04+8+"*5"8+/;>+80".+55Q6/R;6">*046,6"+"465;-68+";,">011*)*5+"(677*08+";-*5*OO0".+75*"6/R;*E+8*""
6--864+810"*5"(0,*-08677*0".+55+"1087+,-*%"@+8"7+1-*8+"(+75*0"5+"+(+87+,O+"*.8*/A+"+"7686,-*8+";,6"7+_
1-*0,+"101-+,*)*5+"6"5;,70"-+8(*,+"1+84*8N"1+,1*)*5*OO68+"56"/*--6.*,6,O6"65"8*1>68(*0"*.8*/0"+"65"/0,1;(0"
/0,16>+405+%""
"
!"#"5
1/.+678'-.3.+
Cause dei rischi
P5"8*1/A*0".*"(6,/6,O6".*"6/R;6">+8"5Q;10"678*/050"[".+-+8(*,6-0"1*6".6"E6--08*"/5*(6-*/*"a">+8*0.*">805;,_
76-*".*"611+,O6".*">8+/*>*-6O*0,*H">+8*0.*".*"+1-8+(0"/65.0"1+//0H"6;(+,-0".+55+"-+(>+86-;8+"/0,"/0,1+_
7;+,-+"(677*08+"+46>0-861>*86O*0,+"+"(677*08+".;86-6".+556"1-67*0,+"4+7+-6-*46"+"*88*7;6"a"1*6".6"E6-_
-08*"+/0,0(*/*H"/0,,+11*"655Q+1>6,1*0,+".+55+"1;>+8E*/*"/05-*46-+"*,"R;0-6"+"655Q*(>*+70".*"-+/,*/A+""
678*/05+"*,-+,1*4+H"/A+",+/+11*-6,0".*"(677*08+"*88*76O*0,+%""
Situazione attuale
C0,"56"/8+1/*-6".+556"8*/A*+1-6"*88*7;6"+".+55+"1;>+8E*/*"/05-*46-+H"*,"/610".*"1*//*-N"6;(+,-6"*5"8*1/A*0".*""
/0,E5*--*"1;5"8*1>+--0".+5"L+E5;110"S*,*(0"X*-65+"+"1;556"E08,*-;86".*"6/R;6"655+"8+7*0,*"6"4655+%"\+75*";5-*(*"
6,,*"["/0(;,R;+">68O*65(+,-+"(*75*086-6"5Q+EE*/*+,O6".+75*"*(>*6,-*".*"*88*76O*0,+%""
Potenziale situazione futura
F*">8+4+.+";,"6;(+,-0"-6,-0".+5"E6))*107,0"*88*7;0".+*"1*1-+(*"678*/05*"+"E08+1-65*"R;6,-0".+55+"1*-;6O*0,*"
.*"1/681*-N"*.8*/6H"/0,"*5"/0,1+7;+,-+"8*1/A*0".*"(6,/6,O6".Q6/R;6">+8"5Q*88*76O*0,+".+55+"/05-;8+"+".+*"
>86-*%"<+,0(+,*"(+-+080507*/*"+1-8+(*"/0(+">8+/*>*-6O*0,*"*,-+,1+H"*,0,.6O*0,*H"1*//*-N"+"0,.6-+".*"/6_
508+">0-86,,0"64+8+"*(>6--*".*8+--*",+76-*4*"1;*"1*1-+(*"678*/05*%""
Potenziale di adattamento
'5/;,+"0>>08-;,*-N".*"-*>0"-+/,*/0"10,0"0--*(*OO68+"56".0(6,.6"*.8*/6".+*"1*1-+(*"678*/05*"+"*"1*1-+(*".*"
*88*76O*0,+"a"6,/A+"6.0--6,.0"-+/,*/A+".*"(0,*-08677*0".*">8+/*1*0,+"aH">80(;04+8+"/05-;8+"8+1*1-+,-*"65"
/65.0"+"675*"1-8+11"*.8*/*"+">0-+,O*68+"*"1*1-+(*".*"1-0//677*0".+55Q6/R;6"6--864+810";,6"7+1-*0,+"6";10""
(*1-0".*"65/;,*"*,461*"*.80+5+--8*/*"+"56"/01-8;O*0,+".*",;04*">*//05*"*,461*"6";10"*88*7;0%"L65">;,-0".*"4*1-6"
7+1-*0,65+"168N"0>>08-;,0"E6408*8+"56"7+1-*0,+"/0,108O*65+"+"*5"(0,*-08677*0">;,-;65+".+556".0(6,.6"
*.8*/6"678*/056%"F+84*86,,0"6,/A+"/0556)086O*0,+"+"/008.*,6(+,-0"6"5*4+550"10486>804*,/*65+">+8"56""
7+1-*0,+".+556"1/681*-N"*.8*/6%""
"
!"#"!
1/.+()(87(4-.+
Cause dei rischi
P5"/6()*6(+,-0".+556"1-67*0,65*-N".+55+">*077+H"56"(*,08+".*1>0,*)*5*-N".*"6/R;6"6"5+,-0"8*561/*0"*((676O_
O*,6-6",+556",+4+"1-67*0,65+"+",+*"7A*6//*6*H"56"E;1*0,+",*465+"6,-*/*>6-6"+"*"E+,0(+,*"(+-+080507*/*"
+1-8+(*".*(*,;*1/0,0"5Q;-*5*OO6)*5*-N".+556"8*10816"*.8*/6%"V5*"+4+,-*".*">*+,6H".*"/056-+".+-8*-*/A+"+"5+"655;_
4*0,*H"/0,"*5"-861>08-0".*"1+.*(+,-*"6"+11*"/0,,+110H"*(>6--6,0"1;556"7+,+86O*0,+"+"1;556"/0,4+81*0,+"+5+-_
-8*/6H"1*6"*,"-+8(*,*".*".6,,*"655+"-;8)*,+"/A+".*"*,-+886(+,-0".+*")6/*,*%""
P5"/6()*6(+,-0"/5*(6-*/0"*,E5;+,O6"6,/A+"56".0(6,.6"+,+87+-*/6"/0,";,"(*,08+"E6))*107,0"*,"*,4+8,0"+"
;,6"(677*08+".0(6,.6".;86,-+"5+"0,.6-+".*"/6508+"+1-*4+%""
"
$&"
"
Situazione attuale
P,"1*-;6O*0,*".*"/68+,O6"*.8*/6".*(*,;*1/+"56">80.;O*0,+".*"+,+87*6"*.80+5+--8*/6H"(+,-8+"6;(+,-6"56""
8*/A*+1-6".Q6/R;6">+8"65-8*";1*H"/0,"*5"/0,1+7;+,-+"8*1/A*0".*"/0,E5*--*"/0,"65-8*"1+--08*H"*,">8*(*1"5Q678*/05_
-;86%"P,"/610".*"+4+,-*".*">*+,6"*")6/*,*">0110,0"+11+8+";-*5*OO6-*">+8"56"56(*,6O*0,+"*,"E;,O*0,+".*">80-+_
O*0,+"*.86;5*/6%"
Potenziale situazione futura
';(+,-6"*5"8*1/A*0".*"(6,/6,O6".*"6/R;6">+8"56">80.;O*0,+".*"+,+87*6H"/0,"*(>6--*"(677*08*">+8"5+""
/+,-865*"*.80+5+--8*/A+"1*-;6-+"655+"R;0-+">*`"65-+"GS6u0,+"+-"65%H"!9&?J"+".;,R;+"/0550/6-+"*,")6/*,*"E08-+_
(+,-+"756/*65*OO6-*%"S677*08*".+E5;11*"*,4+8,65*">+8"4*6".*"(677*08*">8+/*>*-6O*0,*"5*R;*.+">0-8+))+80"*,_
4+/+"64+8+"*(>6--*">01*-*4*"1;556">80.;O*0,+%"F;556"1>*,-6".+75*"0)*+--*4*".*".+/68)0,*OO6O*0,+">0-8+))+"
6;(+,-68+"*5"E6))*107,0".*"+,+87*6"8*,,046)*5+H">;8"+11+,.0"5*(*-6-0"*5"(687*,+">+8",;04*"*(>*6,-*%"F*"
>8+4+.+"6,/A+";,"6;(+,-0".+556".*EE;1*0,+".+75*"*(>*6,-*"*.80+5+--8*/*"6">0(>677*0"+".+55Q;10"(;5-*>50"
.*")6/*,*">+8"5Q678*/05-;86H"56">80.;O*0,+".*"+,+87*6"*.80+5+--8*/6"+"56"56(*,6O*0,+".*">*+,6%""
Potenziale di adattamento
bQ6--;65+"(0.65*-N".*"7+1-*0,+H">+,16-6">+8"8*1>0,.+8+"655+".*,6(*/A+".*"(+8/6-0H"7686,-*1/+";,6"/+8-6"
E5+11*)*5*-N"65"1*1-+(6".*">80.;O*0,+"*.80+5+--8*/6H"(6".048N"/0(;,R;+"+11+8+"8*>+,16-6"6556"5;/+".+55+"
.*,6(*/A+"/5*(6-*/A+H"8*(0.;56,.0",+5"/*/50"*.80507*/0"6,,;65+"75*"688*4*".*"6/R;6"+"67+,.0"1*6"1;5"56-0"
.+55Q0EE+8-6H">+8"+1+(>*0"6--864+810"50"1-0//677*0H"1*6".+556".0(6,.6"*.8*/6".+*"468*"1+--08*%""
@+8"56"7+1-*0,+".+55+"1*-;6O*0,*".*"/68+,O6"*.8*/6"+"56">*6,*E*/6O*0,+".*">80/+11*".*"6.6--6(+,-0"10,0">011*_
)*5*"1*6"6O*0,*".*"-*>0"-+/,*/0"a"/0(+"5Q*(>5+(+,-6O*0,+".*"1*1-+(*".*"(0,*-08677*0H".*"(0.+55*">8+4*1*0,65*"
+".*"1*1-+(*".*"1;>>08-0".+/*1*0,65+H"50"14*5;>>0".*"1*1-+(*".*"1-0//677*0">+8">0(>677*0"+"56"/8+6O*0,+".*"
8*1+84+"*.8*/A+"6";10"(*1-0I>80(*1/;0aH"1*6"6O*0,*">05*-*/0_6((*,*1-86-*4+H"/0(+"56"/0,.*4*1*0,+".*"/A*68+"
8+705+"+">8*08*-N".*";10"-86"*"468*">08-6-08*".*"*,-+8+11+%""
b0"14*5;>>0".*",;04*"*(>*6,-*H"1>*,-0".675*"0)*+--*4*".*".+/68)0,*OO6O*0,+H".048N"-+,+8+"/0,-0".*"4*,/05*"
6()*+,-65*H">6+1677*1-*/*"+"5+76-*"6*"8*1/A*"*.86;5*/*%"P5">8*,/*>65+">0-+,O*65+"["5+76-0"655Q0--*(*OO6O*0,+"+"
8*/0,4+81*0,+".+75*"*(>*6,-*"+1*1-+,-*%"F68N"6,/A+">011*)*5+"(*75*0868+"5Q+EE*/*+,O6".+5"-861>08-0".*"+,+8_
7*6H">+8"+1+(>*0"*,-+886,.0"5+"5*,++%""
"
!"#"9
1/.+'),:/*8'63(+(+*:8'/4-.+
Cause dei rischi
bQ;10"*.8*/0"-;8*1-*/0"["+1>01-0"65"8*1/A*0".*"/68+,O6"*.8*/6">+8"E6--08*"1*6"/5*(6-*/*"/A+"+/0,0(*/*"+"10/*65*%"
\+5"/610".+5"-;8*1(0"*,4+8,65+H".*(*,;*1/+"5Q*,,+46(+,-0",6-;865+"(+,-8+"6;(+,-6"56".0(6,.6"*.8*/6"
>+8"5Q*,,+46(+,-0"68-*E*/*65+H"1*6">+8"1;>>5*8+"6556"(6,/6,O6".*",+4+",6-;865+"1*6">+8"7686,-*8+";,"*,,+46_
(+,-0"0--*(65+"1;55+">*1-+%"bQ;10"*.8*/0"-;8*1-*/0"+1-*40"["+1>01-0"675*"*(>6--*".*"+4+,-*"+1-8+(*"/0(+"
*,0,.6O*0,*"+"1*//*-N"+."["6,/AQ+110"*,"6;(+,-0"1*6">+8"5Q*,,65O6(+,-0".+55Q0EE+8-6"8*/+--*46"65)+87A*+86"
1*6">+8"56"/8+1/*-6".+5"1+--08+".+5"j+55,+11"+".+75*";1*"*.8*/*"8*/8+6-*4*"+1-*4*%""
Situazione attuale
bQ*,.;1-8*6"(01-86";,6".*(*,;O*0,+".+556".0(6,.6"*.8*/6%"C8+1/+"*,4+/+"56".0(6,.6".+5"1+--08+".+5"-;8*_
1(0H"/8+6,.0"/0,E5*--;65*-N"/0,"65-8*"1+--08*"/0(+"5Q678*/05-;86"+"5Q*.80+5+--8*/0%"\0,01-6,-+"5Q;-*5*OO0".*"
*,461*"+"1*1-+(*".*"1-0//677*0H",+5"/610".+5"-;8*1(0"*,4+8,65+"7*N"1*";16,0"-;--+"5+"8*1081+".*1>0,*)*5*H"+"
R;+1-0".+-+8(*,6";,6">8+11*0,+"6"8+65*OO68+",;04*"*,461*"*,"R;0-6%"P5"(677*08+";-*5*OO0"*,"1+,10"8*/8+6-*40"
.*"567A*"+"E*;(*".+-+8(*,6";,6"(677*08+"6--+,O*0,+"6556"R;65*-N"6()*+,-65+"+"(08E0507*/6".+*"/08>*"*.8*/*H"
6,/A+"6556"5;/+".+5"8*1/A*0".*"*,R;*,6(+,-0".+55+"6/R;+">+8"+EE+--0".+75*"+4+,-*"(+-+080507*/*"+1-8+(*"+"
.+556"/8+1/+,-+">8+11*0,+".+5"-;8*1(0"1;*"1+84*O*".*".*1-8*);O*0,+"+"86//05-6".+55+"6/R;+%"
Potenziale situazione futura
b6".0(6,.6"*.8*/6".+5"1+--08+".+5"-;8*1(0"*,4+8,65+"/0,-*,;+8N"6."6;(+,-68+H"(+--+,.0"6"8*1/A*0"56"
>011*)*5*-N".*"611*/;868+"5Q*,,+46(+,-0"68-*E*/*65+"+"6;(+,-6,.0">0-+,O*65*"/0,E5*--*"/0,"5+"+1*7+,O+".*"
$!"
"
6>>8044*7*0,6(+,-0"*.80>0-6)*5+"+".*".+E5;110"+/0507*/0%"P5"1+--08+".+5"-;8*1(0"+1-*40">0-8N"1;)*8+"/0,_
1+7;+,O+"1*6".675*"+4+,-*".*"+//+110".Q6/R;6"/A+".*"1/681*-NH"/A+">0-8+))+80"/0(>80(+--+8+"56">011*)*_
5*-N".*"7686,-*8+"56"/0(>5+-6"0EE+8-6".+*"1+84*O*"-;8*1-*/*%""
Potenziale di adattamento
P5"1+--08+".+5"-;8*1(0"*,4+8,65+".048N"8*/088+8+"6550"1-0//677*0".+55Q6/R;6"6--864+810"56"/01-8;O*0,+".*"
,;04*"*,461*%"k7,*"*,-+84+,-0".048N"+11+8+"6--+,-6(+,-+"465;-6-0H"-+,+,.0"/0,-0".+75*"*(>6--*"1;*".*_
4+81*"1+--08*"6()*+,-65*%"^"86//0(6,.6)*5+";,6">807+--6O*0,+".*"*,461*"/0,4+8-*)*5*"6"65-8*";1*H"/0(+"R;+55*"
678*/05*"+">0-6)*5*H"0".*">80-+O*0,+"6,-*,/+,.*0"0".*">80.;O*0,+"+,+87+-*/6%"U;--64*6H"*")6/*,*"68-*E*/*65*">+8"
5Q*,,+46(+,-0H".6-6"56"5080";)*/6O*0,+"+"4*,/05*"-+/,*/*"+",08(6-*4*H",0,"1+(>8+"10,0"6.6--*%"F68N"6,/A+"
>011*)*5+";-*5*OO68+"-+/,*/A+".*"snow farmingH"-+,+,.0">+8h"6"(+,-+"/A+H"1+",0,"(*-*76-*H"*"/6()*6(+,-*"
/5*(6-*/*"8*/A*+.+86,,0";,"8*>+,16(+,-0"86.*/65+".+5"(0.+550"-;8*1-*/0"*,4+8,65+%
Sommario – Rischi principali
a T*1/A*0".*"(6,/6,O6".Q6/R;6">+8"7686,-*8+"*5".+E5;110"+/0507*/0H"/0,"/0,1+7;+,-*"*(>6--*"1;556"
165;-+".+75*"+/01*1-+(*"6/R;6-*/*"+"6;(+,-0".+5"8*1/A*0".*">+77*086(+,-0".+556"R;65*-N".+55Q"
6/R;6H".04;-0"6556"(*,08+".*5;*O*0,+".+75*"*,R;*,6,-*%""
a T*1/A*0".*"6;(+,-0".*"-+(>+86-;86".+55+"6/R;+H"/0,"*(>6--*"1;556"165;-+".+75*"+/01*1-+(*%""
a T*1/A*0".*"6;(+,-0".+5"-861>08-0".*"1+.*(+,-*">+8"+EE+--0".+550"1/*075*(+,-0".+*"7A*6//*6*H"/0,"
/0,1+7;+,-*">+8-;8)6O*0,*".+*")6/*,*"+".+*"1*1-+(*"E5;4*65*%""
a T*1/A*0".*".*(*,;O*0,+".+556"R;6,-*-N"+".+556"R;65*-N".+55Q6/R;6">+8";10">0-6)*5+%""
a T*1/A*0".*"(6,/6,O6".Q6/R;6">+8"5Q*88*76O*0,+".+55+"/05-;8+"+".+*">86-*%""
a T*1/A*0".*"(6,/6,O6".Q6/R;6">+8"56">80.;O*0,+".*"+,+87*6"+5+--8*/6"6"/6;16".+*"/6()*6(+,-*"
.+556"1-67*0,65*-N".+55+">*077+"+".+5"8*-*80".+*"7A*6//*6*%""
a T*1/A*0".*"(6,/6,O6".Q6/R;6">+8"7686,-*8+"5Q*,,+46(+,-0"68-*E*/*65+H"8*/A*+1-0"1*6">+8"1;>>5*8+"
6556"(6,/6,O6".*",+4+",6-;865+"1*6">+8">805;,768+"56"1-67*0,+"1/**1-*/6"+"7686,-*8+";,"*,,+46_
(+,-0"0--*(65+%""
a T*1/A*0".*"(6,/6,O6".Q6/R;6">+8"7686,-*8+"75*";1*"*.8*/*"6"E*,*"8*/8+6-*4*",+5">+8*0.0"+1-*40""
G>*1/*,+H"j+55,+11J"+"8*1/A*0".*">+77*086(+,-0".+556"R;65*-N".+55Q6/R;6"6"/6;16".+55Q6;(+,-0"
.+*"E+,0(+,*"(+-+080507*/*"+1-8+(*H"/0,"/0,1+7;+,-*"*(>6--*"1;5"1+--08+".+55+"6--*4*-N"8*/8+6_
-*4+"6/R;6-*/A+%""
a T*1/A*0".*".6,,*"675*"+/01*1-+(*H"675*"*,1+.*6(+,-*"+"655+"*,E861-8;--;8+"6"/6;16".+55+""
*,0,.6O*0,*%"
Bibliografia
– Balistrocchi, M., Tomirotti, M., Muraca, A., Ranzi, R., 2021. Hydroclimatic Variability and Land Cover Transformations in the
Central Italian Alps. Water 13, 963. https://doi.org/10.3390/w13070963
– Bertoldi, G., Bozzoli, M., Crespi, A., Matiu, M., Giovannini, L., Zardi, D., Majone, B., 2023. Diverging snowfall trends across
months and elevation in the northeastern Italian Alps. Intl Journal of Climatology 43, 2794–2819.
https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.8002
– Galos, S., Klug, C., Dinale, R., 2023. 20 YEARS OF GLACIER CHANGE: THE HOMOGENIZED GLACIER INVENTORIES FOR SOUTH
TYROL 1997-2005-2017 45, 71–83. https://doi.org/10.4461/GFDQ.2022.45.6
– Majone, B., Villa, F., Deidda, R., Bellin, A., 2016. Impact of climate change and water use policies on hydropower potential in
the south-eastern Alpine region. Science of the Total Environment 543, 965–980. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.sci-
totenv.2015.05.009
$#"
"
– Matiu, M., Crespi, A., Bertoldi, G., Carmagnola, C.M., Marty, C., Morin, S., Schöner, W., Berro, D.C., Chiogna, G., Gregorio,
L.D., Kotlarski, S., Majone, B., Resch, G., Terzago, S., Valt, M., Beozzo, W., Cianfarra, P., Gouttevin, I., Marcolini, G., Notar-
nicola, C., Petitta, M., Scherrer, S.C., Strasser, U., Winkler, M., Zebisch, M., Cicogna, A., Cremonini, R., Debernardi, A., Faletto,
M., Gaddo, M., Giovannini, L., Mercalli, L., Soubeyroux, J.-M., Sušnik, A., Trenti, A., Urbani, S., Weilguni, V., 2021. Observed
snow depth trends in the European Alps: 1971 to 2019. The Cryosphere 15, 1343–1382. https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-1343-
2021
– Ruffini, F., Pollinger, 2017. Gesamtplan für die Nutzung der öffentlichen Gewässer Teil 1 Aktuelle Situation (No. Teil 1 Ak-
tuelle Situation). Autonome Provinz Südtirol, Italien.
$$"
"
4.2
Biodiversità
Autore: Andreas Hilpold
"
Figura 16: Catena degli impatti per illustrare i pericoli, l'esposizione e la vulnerabilità del settore della biodiversità
"
Introduzione
\+75*";5-*(*"!99"6,,*"*,"'5-0"'.*7+"[".*(*,;*-6".861-*/6(+,-+"56")*0.*4+81*-ND",+5"ss"1+/050"1*"["+1-*,-0"
/*8/6"*5"#"q".*"-;--+"5+"1>+/*+"4+7+-65*"+";,"R;68-0".+556"E5086"6--;65+"["65"(0(+,-0"/0,1*.+86-0"*,">+8*/050"
.*"+1-*,O*0,+"Gz*5A65("x"=*5>05.H"!99?J%"<6--08*">8*,/*>65*".*"R;+1-0">80)5+(6"10,0"1-6-*"*"/6()*6(+,-*"
,+550"1E8;--6(+,-0".+5"1;050H"/0(+"5Q*,-+,1*E*/6O*0,+",+55+"O0,+"E6408+405*"+"5Q6))6,.0,0".*"R;+55+"1E640_
8+405*H",0,/Ac"75*"*,-+84+,-*"6--;6-*"1;*"/081*".Q6/R;6H"/0(+"*5"86..8*OO6(+,-0".+*"E*;(*"+"50"1E8;--6(+,-0"
*.80+5+--8*/0%"\+556"465;-6O*0,+".+75*"*(>6--*"/5*(6-*/*"0//088+">8+,.+8+"*,"/0,1*.+86O*0,+"R;+1-*"E6--08*"
/A+"10,0"-;--086"+1*1-+,-*%"
"
!"0"#
;.8(/*6+++
Cause dei rischi
bQ'5-0"'.*7+"[">0>056-0".655Q;0(0".6"(*75*6*6".*"6,,*"+"*,"R;+1-0">+8*0.0"75*"+/01*1-+(*"E08+1-65*"10,0"
1-6-*"E08-+(+,-+"*,E5;+,O6-*".655Q;-*5*OO0".+5"5+7,0H".65">61/050"+".6556"86//05-6".*"1-86(+%"b+"E08+1-+""
>8*(08.*65*H">0/0"0">+8",;556";-*5*OO6-+"*,">6116-0H"10,0"5*(*-6-+"6."68++"*,6//+11*)*5*"+"10,0"1>+110"/686-_
-+8*OO6-+".6";,"(016*/0".*"/5611*".*"+-N".*4+81+".+75*"65)+8*%"bQ6;(+,-0".+55+"-+(>+86-;8+"1-6">08-6,.0"6"
>+8*0.*">805;,76-*".*"1*//*-N"+"6"0,.6-+".*"/6508+H"6;(+,-6,.0"*5"8*1/A*0".*"*,/+,.*")01/A*4*%"';(+,-6,0"
Intensicazione dell’agricoltura + elevato apporto di azoto e pesticidi
Comparsa di specie invasive
Uso del tempo libero
Infrastrutture tecniche (strade, edici, serbatoi, energia
idroelettrica, strutture)
Legame con i rischi climatici: Gestione dell’acqua, energia, agricoltura, settore forestale, turismo, insediamenti, salute.
Acqua corrente
Prosciugamento
dei corsi d'acqua a
bassa quota
Minaccia alla
biodiversità uviale
a causa dei neobiota
invasivi
Perdita di zone umide
Incendi boschivi più
frequenti
Minaccia alla
biodiversità
uviale a causa del
basso usso
d’acqua e delle alte
temperature.
Minaccia alla
biodiversità
uviale a causa
del basso usso
d'acqua e delle
alte tempera-
ture.
Rarità, piccole
dimensioni e
scarsa resilienza
delle torbiere,
delle zone
umide e dei
laghi
Rarità, piccole
dimensioni e
resilienza delle
aree ad alto
valore naturali-
stico
Diusione di
specie termole
Minaccia per le
specie alpine con
sottopopolazioni
piccole e isolate
LaghiZone umide
Ecosistemi forestali Agroecosistemi
Ecosistemi alpini
Aumento delle temperature e del calore Aumento dei periodi di siccità
Biodiversità
Pericoli per rari tipi
di foresta
Alta densità della
fauna selvatica
Attività agricola
intensiva (liquami,
letame)
Infrastruttura
turistica + uso del
tempo libero
Rarità, piccole
dimensioni e scarsa
resilienza delle
torbiere, delle zone
umide e dei laghi
Abbandono di aree
svantaggiate ed
espansione della
vegetazione
habitat e popolazio-
ni in diminuzione
Scioglimento
dei ghiacciai
Uso del tempo libero
Apporto di azoto
Silvicoltura spora-
dicamente poco
naturale, tipi di
bosco poco adatti
al clima
Comparsa di specie
vegetali invasive
Pericolo per gli
habitat e le specie
legate ai ghiacciai
Pericoli legati al clima
Impatti climatici
Sistemi esposti
Vulnerabilità, fattori di rischio non climatici
Rischio principale con necessità di intervento
urgente alto medio
$:"
"
6,/A+"*"/0,E5*--*".*"0)*+--*4*".*4+81*"+".*";-*5*OO0".+556"E08+1-6H">+8"/;*"56"1/+5-6"["-86"5Q*,/8+(+,-0".+55+"E0,-*"
.*"+,+87*6"8*,,046)*5+"G5+7,6(+J"+"*5".+1*.+8*0".*">8+1+8468+"56")*0.*4+81*-N"E08+1-65+%"
Situazione attuale
bQ'5-0"'.*7+"A6";,6"1;>+8E*/*+"E08+1-65+".*",0-+405+"+,-*-N"(6",0,";,*E08(+(+,-+".*1-8*);*-6D"56"(677*08"
>68-+".+55+"68++")01/A*4+"1*"-8046"6"R;0-+">*`"+5+46-+H"E*,0"6"/*8/6"!%&99"(+-8*H"(+,-8+"6"R;0-+"*,E+8*08*"
5+"E08+1-+"10,0".*1-8*);*-+"*88+70568(+,-+",+*"E0,.*4655+H"/0(+",+556"X65".Q'.*7+H"10,0">8+110/Ac"*,+1*_
1-+,-*%"L*"/0,1+7;+,O6H"10,0")+,"86>>8+1+,-6-*"*"-*>*".*"E08+1-6"(0,-6,6"+"56"5080".*4+81*-N".*"1>+/*+H"
(+,-8+"10,0">*`"868*"*"-*>*".*"E08+1-6"/055*,68+_1;)(0,-6,6H"10>86--;--0"*,"5;07A*"6>>+-*)*5*">+8"5Q678*/05_
-;86"0"5Q*,1+.*6(+,-0"G6."+1%")01/A*"8*>68*65*"0".*"-*75*0J%"\+75*";5-*(*".+/+,,*"56"1;>+8E*/*+"E08+1-65+"A6"
1;)*-0";,"*,/8+(+,-0"10>86--;--0"655+"R;0-+">*`"+5+46-+H"6"/6;16".+55Q6))6,.0,0"G.+5">61/050"+"1E65/*0JH"
5*(*-6,.0"56">+8/+O*0,+".*">011*)*5*"+EE+--*".+5"8*1/65.6(+,-0"750)65+%"'550"1-6-0"6--;65+H"5+"1>+/*+".*>+,_
.+,-*".655+"E61*".*"*,4+//A*6(+,-0"+".+/6.*(+,-0",+55+"E08+1-+"/0((+8/*65*"+",+55+"-*>0507*+"E08+1-65*"
(+,0".*EE;1+"10,0"868+"+"1>+110"*,">+8*/050%"
Potenziale situazione futura
b6">0-+,O*65+".*1-8*);O*0,+"65-*-;.*,65+".+*"-*>*".*"E08+1-6"1*"1>01-+8N"4+810"5Q65-0H">0*/Ac"(05-+"1>+/*+"68_
)08++",0,"1*"-8046,0">*`"65"5080"0>-*(;("+/0507*/0%"',/A+"1+"5Q+EE+--*46"+1>6,1*0,+"*,"65-+OO6".+*"-*>*".*"
E08+1-6"["*,"8*-68.0"8*1>+--0"6"R;+556">0-+,O*65+H"+4+,-*"(+-+080507*/*"+"7+0507*/*"+1-8+(*H";,*-6(+,-+"6"
/0,1+7;+,O+")*0507*/A+"/0(+"5Q+1>6,1*0,+".+5")01-8*/0H">0110,0"6//+5+868+"1*7,*E*/6-*46(+,-+"R;+1-0"
>80/+110%"P,"(05-+"4655*H"5+"68++"E08+1-65*"*,"/;*"6--;65(+,-+">8+.0(*,6"5Q6)+-+"80110"1*"-861E08(+86,,0"
1+(>8+">*`"*,")01/A*"(*1-*".*"56-*E075*+%"F*">;h"*>0-*OO68+"/A+"R;+1-0">80/+110"648N"8*>+8/;11*0,*">01*-*4+"
>+8"56")*0.*4+81*-NH">0*/Ac"65"/0,-+(>0"6;(+,-+8N"56"(677*08+"4*/*,6,O6"6556",6-;86%"P,"E;-;80"5+"68++"6"
)6116"R;0-6H"E6408*-+".65"/6508+H">0-8+))+80"+11+8+"786.;65(+,-+"/050,*OO6-+".6"1>+/*+"68)08++"(+.*_
-+886,++"1+(>8+4+8.*%"X*1-0"/A+"*"-*>*".*"E08+1-6">8+.0(*,6,-*";,"-+(>0H"/0(+"56"804+8+556H"*5"804+8+"+"*5"
/68>*,0",+80H"1-6,,0"+1>6,.+,.01*"4+810"5Q65-0"6"/6;16".+*"/6()*6(+,-*"/5*(6-*/*H"R;+1-0">80/+110",0,"
.048+))+"/0(>80(+--+8+"56")*0.*4+81*-N",+5"1;0"/0(>5+110%"U;--64*6H"56"8*7+,+86O*0,+">0-8+))+"+11+8+"
8*-68.6-6".65"/01>*/;0",;(+80".*"/6>*".*"1+54677*,6">8+1+,-+%"P">80)5+(*">0-8+))+80">8+1+,-681*"6,/A+"
>+8"*"-*>*".*"E08+1-6"868*"+">68-*/0568(+,-+"6.6--6-*"6".+-+8(*,6-+"1*-;6O*0,*"+">+8"75*"6,*(65*"6."+11+"6110_
/*6-*%"Z;+1-*"6()*+,-*",0,"1+(>8+">0110,0"1>01-681*"4+810"5Q65-0"/0(+"6"/6;16".+5"-+88+,0H";,"+1+(>*0"
10,0"5+"E08+1-+".*"E0886%"W4+,-*"+1-8+(*"/0(+"*5"4+,-0H"56">8+11*0,+".+556",+4+"+"5+"E86,+">0110,0"6//+5+_
868+"5Q6.6--6(+,-0".+556"E08+1-6H"(6">0110,0"6,/A+"E6408*8+"5Q*,1+.*6(+,-0".*"1>+/*+">*0,*+8*",0,"6;-0/_
-0,*H"/0(+"5Q65)+80".+5">686.*10H"56"80)*,*6"+"56");..5+u6H"/A+">0110,0"/8+68+">80)5+(*"655+"1>+/*+"6;-0/_
-0,+%"P,"E;-;80H"*,"/610".*"0,.6-+".*"/6508+"0">+8*0.*".*"1*//*-NH">0-8+))+80"(6,*E+1-681*"/0,"(677*08+""
E8+R;+,O6"*,/+,.*")01/A*4*"1;"56876"1/656H"10>86--;--0"1;*"-+88+,*"1/01/+1*H"/A+">8040/A+8+))+80".6,,*"6"
5;,70"-+8(*,+"655Q+/01*1-+(6H"/0(>8+10"*5"1;050%"Z;+1-0"E6--08+"E6408*8+))+"5+"1>+/*+"68)08++">*`""
8+1*1-+,-*"675*"*,/+,.*"0"*,"786.0".*"8*/050,*OO68+"86>*.6(+,-+"5+"68++")8;/*6-+H"6".*1/6>*-0".+55+"1>+/*+"
/A+",0,"46,-6,0"-65*"/6>6/*-N".*"6.6--6(+,-0%"
Potenziale di adattamento
bQA6)*-6-"E08+1-6".048+))+"+11+8+"8*,E08O6-0"+"6.6--6-0"6*"/6()*6(+,-*"/5*(6-*/*H"/0,"*,-+84+,-*"/0,16_
>+405*"6"E6408+".+556")*0.*4+81*-N",+55+"E08+1-+"7+1-*-+H"6."+1+(>*0"561/*6,.0"6"-+886"56"5+7,6"(08-6H""
10>>8*(+,.0"5+"1>+/*+",0,"6;-0/-0,+"+"6;(+,-6,.0"56".*4+81*-N"1-8;--;865+%"F*".048+))+80"6,/A+"8*>08_
-68+"6";,0"1-6-0">*`",6-;865+"68++"1+5+O*0,6-+".*"E08+1-+"6;-0/-0,+H"8*,;,/*6,.0".+5*)+86-6(+,-+"65"5080"
;-*5*OO0%"@+8"+4*-68+"56">+8.*-6".*"65/;,*"A6)*-6-"+"5+"/0,1+7;+,-*"8*>+8/;11*0,*",+76-*4+"1;556")*0.*4+81*-NH"
0//088+">8+1+8468+"5+"*105+"E08+1-65*"*,">*6,;86"+"(*75*0868,+"*5"/055+76(+,-0"/0,6"65-8+"68++")01/A*4+%"
M*107,+8+))+H"56..04+">011*)*5+H"+4*-68+".*"E68+"1/0>>*68+"*,/+,.*")01/A*4*".*"786,.*".*(+,1*0,*"G/E8%"/6_
>*-050 Gestione forestaleJ%"
" "
$?"
"
!"0"0
<6&'*6*+63=')'++
Cause dei rischi
P5"8*1/65.6(+,-0"6;(+,-6"56"/0(>+-*O*0,+"-86"5+"1>+/*+"6,*(65*"+"4+7+-65*"G>8+1+,-*".Q65-6"R;0-6JH">+8/Ac"
5Q*,/8+(+,-0".+55+"-+(>+86-;8+"+"*5"(0.*E*/681*".+55+">8+/*>*-6O*0,*"1>01-6,0"4+810"5Q65-0H"5;,70"*""
786.*+,-*".*"65-*-;.*,+"+";(*.*-NH"*"/0,E*,*".+55Q68+65+".+55+"1>+/*+">*`"-+8(0E*5+%"P"/6()*6(+,-*"/5*(6-*/*"
6//8+1/0,0"*5"8*1/A*0".*".*161-8*",6-;865*"/0(+"4656,7A+"+"/056-+".*"E6,70H"/A+">0110,0">8040/68+"56"
1/0(>6816".*"1*,705+">0>056O*0,*H"6;(+,-6,.0,+"56">80)6)*5*-N".*"+1-*,O*0,+H"10>86--;--0">+8"5+"1>+/*+"
868+".Q65-6"R;0-6%"P"E6--08*".*"8*1/A*0",0,"/5*(6-*/*"*,/5;.0,0">8*,/*>65(+,-+"56"/01-8;O*0,+".*",;04+""
1-8;--;8+"+"5Q;-*5*OO0">+8"6--*4*-N"8*/8+6-*4+H">80.;O*0,+".*"+,+87*6"+"(0)*5*-N%"',/A+"50"1E8;--6(+,-0"678*_
/050">;h"/0,-8*);*8+"6"7+,+868+"8*>+8/;11*0,*",+76-*4+"*,"R;+1-0"6()*+,-+H"10>86--;--0"*,"/610".*""
7+1-*0,+"*(>80>8*6H"/0(+"50"1E8;--6(+,-0"+//+11*40".+*">61/05*%"
Situazione attuale
\+556"O0,6"65-*-;.*,65+".6"1;)65>*,6"6",*465+"4*40,0",;(+801+"1>+/*+"G+,.+(*/A+"+"1;)+,.+(*/A+J"/0,"
>0>056O*0,*"*1056-+"6"5*4+550"750)65+%"@+8"(05-+".*"+11+H"5Q'5-0"'.*7+"01>*-6";,6">68-+"1*7,*E*/6-*46".+55+">0_
>056O*0,*"+".+55Q68+65+"750)65+H">+8"/;*"5Q'5-0"'.*7+"A6";,6"786,.+"8+1>0,16)*5*-N",+*"/0,E80,-*".*"R;+1-+"
1>+/*+%"<*,086"5+"011+846O*0,*"1;75*"+EE+--*".*8+--*".+5"8*1/65.6(+,-0"750)65+"*,"'5-0"'.*7+"10,0"8*1;5-6-+"
(05-0"E86((+,-68*+"G6."+1%">807+--0"VbkTP'D"A-->1DII7508*6%6/%6-IA0(+J%"
Potenziale situazione futura
'"/6;16".+5"8*1/65.6(+,-0"750)65+H"1*">8+4+.+"/A+".*(*,;*1/6,0"75*"A6)*-6-"+"5+"1>+/*+"6.6--6-*"65"E8+..0"
6"E6408+".*"A6)*-6-"+"1>+/*+"E6408*-+".65"/65.0H"*,">68-*/0568+"655+"65-*-;.*,*"1;),*465*"+",*465*%"W4+,-*"
+1-8+(*"/0(+"*,4+8,*"8*7*.*"+",+401*"+."+801*0,+">8040/6,0";5-+8*08*".*167*H"/A+">0110,0"+11+8+"*,-+,1*E*_
/6-*".655+"6--*4*-N";(6,+%"'"/6;16".+55+"5*(*-6O*0,*"7+0786E*/A+H"5Q68+6"-0-65+".+75*"A6)*-6-"65>*,*"1-6".*(*_
,;+,.0".861-*/6(+,-+%"Z;+1-*"-*>*".*"A6)*-6-"1-6,,0"*,05-8+"*1056,.01*H"8*.;/+,.0"5Q*,-+8/0,,+11*0,+"-86"
5+">0>056O*0,*"+1*1-+,-*"/A+"/0(>08-6";,"*,.+)05*(+,-0".+55+">0>056O*0,*",+5"(+.*0_5;,70"-+8(*,+""
GC+8+16"+-"65%H"!9!#J"+";,6"(677*08+">80)6)*5*-N".*"+1-*,O*0,+%"b6"/050,*OO6O*0,+".+75*"A6)*-6-".*",;046"
/8+6O*0,+H".Q65-86">68-+H",0,"["*((+.*6-6m"6."+1+(>*0">;h"+11+8+"8*/A*+1-0";,"-+(>0"8+56-*46(+,-+"
5;,70">+8/Ac"1*"E08(*";,6">86-+8*6"65>*,6"*,"5;07A*"/A+".*4+,-6,0"/5*(6-*/6(+,-+"E6408+405*%"
Potenziale di adattamento
M*107,+8+))+".+1*7,68+";5-+8*08*"68++">80-+--+"/0(+"(*1;8+".*"6.6--6(+,-0"6*"/6()*6(+,-*"/5*(6-*/*"+"
>80(;04+8+"(*1;8+".*"08*+,-6(+,-0"+"1+,1*)*5*OO6O*0,+"(*86-+">+8"/A*"E8+R;+,-6"R;+1-*"5;07A*%"F0>86-_
-;--0"*,";,"/0,-+1-0".*"/6()*6(+,-0".+55+"/0,.*O*0,*"6()*+,-65*H"[",+/+1168*0"8*465;-68+"8+70568(+,-+"
5Q;10".+55Q678*/05-;86"6,/A+"6"5*4+550"65>*,0"G10>86"*"!%#99"(+-8*J%"F+))+,+"*5">61/050".+5")+1-*6(+"140576"
;,6"E;,O*0,+"*(>08-6,-+">+8"(6,-+,+8+"6>+8-6"56"4+7+-6O*0,+",+55Q68+6".*"/0,E*,+".+556"E08+1-6H"6."65-*_
-;.*,*">*`"+5+46-+"75*"+EE+--*"+/0507*/*",+76-*4*"1>+110"1;>+86,0"*")+,+E*/*%"\+556"O0,6".*"/0,E*,+".+556""
E08+1-6"GO0,6"1;)65>*,6J"["0>>08-;,0"/0,-*,;68+"6"101-+,+8+"50"1E65/*0".+55+">8+O*01+"68++">86-*4+H"1+)_
)+,+"5Q+//+11*40"1>687*(+,-0".*"101-6,O+",;-8*-*4+".6,,+77*6"56")*0.*4+81*-N".+55+"68++"65>*,+"+"1;)65_
>*,+H"10>86--;--0"56"468*+-N".*">*6,-+"461/0568*"+"*,1+--*%"P,E*,+H">+8"5+"1>+/*+".*"65-6"R;0-6H">+8"5+"R;65*"
.0))*6(0"1+,-*8/*"(05-0"8+1>0,16)*5*H"["86//0(6,.6-6"6,/A+"56"/0,1+846O*0,+"+e_1*-;H"6."+1%",+*"7*68.*,*"
)0-6,*/*%"
"
!"0"5
$78.(-./'/*(%'++
Cause dei rischi
P"/6()*6(+,-*"/5*(6-*/*"1-6,,0"(0.*E*/6,.0"*"-+(>*".*"/05-*46O*0,+"+"86//05-6".+55+"/05-;8+"+"R;*,.*""
6,/A+"*">+8*0.*".*"E*08*-;86H"/016"/A+">;h".+-+8(*,68+";,0"1E616(+,-0".+55Q6--*4*-N".+75*"*,1+--*"*(>055*,6_
-08*H"/0,";,"E08-+"*(>6--0"1;556")*0.*4+81*-N"+."+EE+--*",+76-*4*"1;55Q678*/05-;86%"C6()*6"*,05-8+"56".*1>0,*_
)*5*-N".*"6/R;6H"/0,"8*>+8/;11*0,*".*8+--+"1;75*"0876,*1(*"4*4+,-*"10>86"+"10--0"*5"1;050H",0,/Ac"1;556""
$K"
"
R;65*-N".+5"1;050"1-+110%"';(+,-6,0"6,/A+"75*"+4+,-*"(+-+080507*/*"+1-8+(*%"\0,"-;--*"R;+1-*"/6()*6_
(+,-*"10,0",+76-*4*H">0*/Ac"5+"1>+/*+"1>+/*65*OO6-+">0110,0"-868,+")+,+E*/*0%"\+5"/0(>5+110H"*"/6()*6_
(+,-*"/5*(6-*/*"1-6,,0"65-+86,.0"75*"+/01*1-+(*%"k5-8+"6*"/6()*6(+,-*"/5*(6-*/*H"7*0/6";,"8;050".+/*1*40"56"
468*6O*0,+",+550"1E8;--6(+,-0".+5"1;050H"/0(+"5Q*,-+,1*E*/6O*0,+"*,"5;07A*"6780,0(*/6(+,-+"E6408+405*"+"
5Q6))6,.0,0"*,"5;07A*"1E6408+405*"/0,"/0,1+7;+,-+"*,461*0,+".+556"(6//A*6"+"8*()01/A*(+,-0%"V5*"+EE+--*"
>8*,/*>65*".+5"8*1/65.6(+,-0"750)65+"1*"(6,*E+1-+86,,0">80)6)*5(+,-+"*,"(6,*+86"*,.*8+--6H"6."+1%"/0,"50"
1>01-6(+,-0".*"65/;,+"/05-;8+"6."65-*-;.*,*">*`"+5+46-+".04+"56".*1>0,*)*5*-N".*"6/R;6"["1;EE*/*+,-+"0"6-_
-864+810"56"/0,4+81*0,+".*"68++"E08+1-65*"*,">86-*"+">61/05*H"/0,"/0,1+7;+,-+">+8.*-6".*"68++".*"46508+""
+/0507*/0%"@+8">80-+77+81*".675*"+4+,-*"+1-8+(*"1+(>8+">*`"1>+110"4+,70,0"*,1-6556-+"1-8;--;8+"1>+/*65*"
/0(+"8+-*"6,-*786,.*,+"+"1+8)6-0*H"/A+"6"5080"405-6"A6,,0";,"*(>6--0"+/0507*/0%"
Situazione attuale
bQ6--;65+">6+1677*0"678*/050".+55Q'5-0"'.*7+"["/686--+8*OO6-0".6">86-*H"/6(>*".*"(6*1H"E8;--+-*"+"4*7,+-*""
;-*5*OO6-*">8+465+,-+(+,-+"*,"(0.0"*,-+,1*40"0"(0.+86-0",+55+"O0,+"4655*4+"/0,";,"/5*(6"E6408+405+"+"
>8+1+,-6";,6")*0.*4+81*-N"8+56-*46(+,-+")6116"1;"46-+"68++%"b6"(677*08">68-+".+55+"1>+/*+">8+1+,-*",+55+"
68++"678*/05+"1*"/0,/+,-86"*,"O0,+";-*5*OO6-+"*,"(0.0"+1-+,1*40H"/0(+"*">86-*".*"(0,-67,6";(*.*"+"8*//A*".*"
1>+/*+H"*">61/05*",0,"-80>>0"*,-+,1*4*H"*"E8;--+-*"-86.*O*0,65*"+"*"/61-67,+-*H"*">+,.**".+*"4*7,+-*"/0,"(;8+--*"
6"1+//0"+";,"(016*/0".*"*105+")01/01+"+"1*+>*H",0,/Ac"*"/6(>*".*"/+8+65*".*"5*(*-6-+".*(+,1*0,*%"Z;+1-*""
A6)*-6-"10,0"6,/A+".+E*,*-*"-+88+,*"678*/05*"6."65-0"46508+",6-;865+"G=\XJ"+"10,0".*(*,;*-*"*,"(0.0"1*7,*E*_
/6-*40".0>0"5Q*,.;1-8*65*OO6O*0,+".+55Q678*/05-;86%"P5",;(+80"+"56".*4+81*-N".+55+">*//05+"1-8;--;8+".+5""
>6+1677*0"678*/050"/A+"A6,,0"8*5+46,O6">+8"56")*0.*4+81*-N"10,0".*(*,;*-+"+"/*h"1*"8*E5+--+H"6."+1+(>*0H"
,+556"/0,1+7;+,-+"1/0(>6816".*"1*+>*H"1*,705*"65)+8*H"E*568*".*"65)+8*H"1-67,*"+">65;.*%
P"/6()*6(+,-*",+5">6+1677*0"678*/050"+"56">+8.*-6".*")*0.*4+81*-N"6."+11*"6110/*6-6"*,E5;+,O6,0"6,/A+"*"
1+84*O*"+/01*1-+(*/*".*1>0,*)*5*"Gi6,*,*"+-"65%H"!9!$J%"'."+1+(>*0H"5Q*,-+,1*E*/6O*0,+".+55+">86-+8*+"A6""
>08-6-0"6";,"*(>04+8*(+,-0".+5"(0,.0"4+7+-65+H"/A+"6"1;6"405-6"A6">8040/6-0";,"/650".+55+">0>056O*0,*"
.*"*,1+--*"+">;h"64+8+";,"*(>6--0",+76-*40"1;55+"*(>055*,6O*0,*"GV;68*+,-0"+-"65%H"!9!!J%"
Potenziale situazione futura
V86,">68-+".+556")*0.*4+81*-N"["/0,/+,-86-6",+55+"68++"6."65-0"46508+",6-;865*1-*/0"G68++"=\XJH"/A+">+8h"
10,0"1>+110"*1056-+"+"1+>686-+"5+";,+".655+"65-8+">+8/Ac")688*+8+"/0(+"5+"*,E861-8;--;8+"+"*">6+1677*"6""
/05-*46O*0,+"*,-+,1*46",+"*(>+.*1/0,0"*5">611677*0".6";,6"655Q65-86%"\0,"["*,05-8+"/A*680"R;65*".+55+"6--;65*"
68++"=\X">0116,0"10>8644*4+8+"*,"/0,.*O*0,*"/5*(6-*/A+"(;-+405*%"bQ6;(+,-0".+55Q+46>086O*0,+".04;-0"
655+"-+(>+86-;8+">*`"+5+46-+">0-8+))+"8*1;5-68+">68-*/0568(+,-+">80)5+(6-*/0">+8"75*"A6)*-6-"/A+"1*"6.6-_
-6,0"655Q;(*.*-NH"/0(+"*">86-*";(*.*"0")67,6-*H"(+,-8+"5+">86-+8*+"1+(*_68*.+">0-8+))+80"+11+8,+"E640_
8*-+%"U;--64*6H"*5"8*1/65.6(+,-0">0-8+))+"8+,.+8+"6,/086">*`".*EE*/05-010"50"1E8;--6(+,-0"678*/050"*,"68++"
.*".*EE*/*5+"6//+110"+"6"1/681*-N".*"6/R;6H"10>86--;--0",+*">61/05*"1+//A*"/0(+"*,"X65"X+,01-6%"V5*"+EE+--*"
*,.*8+--*"1;55Q6780)*0.*4+81*-N"1*"(6,*E+1-6,0"R;6,.0"1*"4+8*E*/6,0">80)5+(*".*"*88*76O*0,+"6"/6;16".+556"
(6,/6,O6".*",+4+"*,"*,4+8,0"0">+8"56"/0(>5+-6"1/0(>6816".+55+"8*1+84+".Q6/R;6",+*"7A*6//*6*%"W4+,-*"
+1-8+(*"/0(+"-+(>+1-+"0">+8*0.*".*"1*//*-N">0110,0"64+8+";,"*(>6--0".*8+--0"1;556")*0.*4+81*-N"+"*,,+_
1/68+">80/+11*".*"+1-*,O*0,+"50/65+"0">08-68+"*,.*8+--6(+,-+"655Q6))6,.0,0".*"65/;,*"1E8;--6(+,-*">+8"*5"
/6()*6(+,-0".*".+1-*,6O*0,+".Q;10%"
Potenziale di adattamento
bQ6.6--6(+,-0"["E0/65*OO6-0"1;550"1E8;--6(+,-0".+5"1;050%"^"*(>08-6,-+"/A+"5+"68++"6."65-0"46508+",6-;86_
5*1-*/0"G68++"=\XJH"*,">68-*/0568+"*">86-*H"*"E8;--+-*"-86.*O*0,65*H"*"/61-67,+-*"+"*">61/05*"+1-+,1*4*H"/0,-*,;*,0"
6"8*/+4+8+"101-+7,*"+/0,0(*/*"6,/A+".*"(677*08+"+,-*-N%"Z;+1-+"68++"10,0"1>+110">8+110/Ac"1/0,01/*;-+"
6556">;))5*/6"6((*,*1-86O*0,+H">+8"R;+1-0"["+11+,O*65+"(6>>68+"/0(>5+-6(+,-+"*")*0-0>*%"P"/6()*6_
(+,-*"/05-;865*"8+1*">011*)*5*".65"8*1/65.6(+,-0"750)65+"G6."+1%"56"/0,4+81*0,+".*">86-*"*,"E8;--+-*"0".*""
>61/05*"*,"4*7,+-*J".048+))+80"+11+8+"+EE+--;6-*"1050".0>0"64+8"+EE+--;6-0";,6"465;-6O*0,+".65">;,-0".*"
4*1-6"+/0507*/0".+5"-+88+,0%"F68+))+"*(>08-6,-+"+1/5;.+8+"/0(>5+-6(+,-+".6556"/0,4+81*0,+"68++".*"
>8+7*0"/0(+"*">86-*"1+//A*%"
" "
$B"
"
!"0"!
>63:,'+(+367?'+++
Cause dei rischi
P"/6()*6(+,-*"/5*(6-*/*H"/0,"5Q6;(+,-0".+55+"-+(>+86-;8+"+"56"468*6O*0,+".+*"(0.+55*".*">8+/*>*-6O*0,+H"
1-6"*,E5;+,O6,.0"5+"/0,.*O*0,*"*.80507*/A+".*">65;.*"+"567A*%"3,6".*(*,;O*0,+".+55+">8+/*>*-6O*0,*"0""
>805;,76-*">+8*0.*".*"/65.0"*,"+1-6-+">0110,0"8*.;88+"56".*1>0,*)*5*-N".*"6/R;6"+"/6;168+"6..*8*--;86"56"
1/0(>6816".*"R;+1-*"A6)*-6-%"<+,0(+,*"+1-8+(*">0110,0"6//+5+868+";5-+8*08(+,-+"*">80/+11*"*,,+1/6-*".6*"
/6()*6(+,-*"/5*(6-*/*%"'"5;,70"-+8(*,+H"/*h">;h"6,/A+"(0.*E*/68+"56"/0(>01*O*0,+".+55+"1>+/*+%"b+"468*6_
O*0,*",+550"1E8;--6(+,-0".+5"1;050H"/0(+"*5".8+,677*0".+55+"-08)*+8+")611+"+"5Q*((*11*0,+".*",;-8*+,-*"+"
>+1-*/*.*".6">68-+".+55+"6--*4*-N"678*/05+"5*(*-80E+H"05-8+"6556"/01-8;O*0,+".*"*,E861-8;--;8+"+"65".*1-;8)0""
7+,+86-0".655+"6--*4*-N"8*/8+6-*4+H"A6,,0"+EE+--*",+76-*4*%"
Situazione attuale
\+55+">65;.*"+",+*"567A*"4*40,0";,6"E5086"+";,6"E6;,6"(05-0">68-*/0568*"+"1>+110"6"8*1/A*0".*"+1-*,O*0,+%"
L+55+"O0,+";(*.+"08*7*,68*6(+,-+"+1*1-+,-*"*,"'5-0"'.*7+"8+1-6,0"6,/086"1050">*//05+"68++H"56"(677*08"
>68-+".+55+"R;65*">;8"+11+,.0"(05-0"*1056-6"01>*-6";,Q+5+46-6".*4+81*-N".*"1>+/*+%"S05-+".*"+11+"10,0""
>8+1+,-*"*,"W;80>6"1050"*,">0/A+">0>056O*0,*"E08-+(+,-+"*1056-+%"b6",01-86"8+1>0,16)*5*-N",+*"/0,E80,-*"
.+556"E5086"+".+556"E6;,6".+75*"A6)*-6-".+55+"O0,+";(*.+"["R;*,.*"786,.+">+8/Ac",0,"1*"-86--6"1050".*"A6)*_
-6-"1+,1*)*5*H"(6"6,/A+".*"*(>08-6,-*"1+8)6-0*".*"/68)0,*0"G10>86--;--0">+8"R;6,-0"8*7;68.6"5+"O0,+";(*.+"
-08)01+"/0(+"5+"-08)*+8+"65-+J%"b6"5080"/0,1+846O*0,+"+"56"5080"E;-;86"46508*OO6O*0,+"10,0"+11+,O*65*">+8"*5"
)*56,/*0".+5"/68)0,*0"*,"'5-0"'.*7+%"
Potenziale situazione futura
L*4+81+")688*+8+"*1056,0"-86"5080"5+">65;.*"+"*"567A*H"10>86--;--0",+556"O0,6"4655*46H"8+,.+,.0"1>+110"*(_
>011*)*5+"655+"1>+/*+"50"1>01-6(+,-0"4+810"O0,+"1*-;6-+">*`"*,"65-0%"^"6,/A+">8+4*1-0";,"*(>6--0",+76-*40"
1;55+"-08)*+8+">+8"5Q6;(+,-0".+55+"-+(>+86-;8+H">+8/Ac"6;(+,-6,0"5Q6--*4*-N"(*/80)*/6"+"R;*,.*"56""
.+/0(>01*O*0,+".+5"(6-+8*65+"0876,*/0H"/A+"*,"(05-*"/61*"*(>+.*1/+"5Q;5-+8*08+"E08(6O*0,+".*"-08)6"+"*,"
/+8-+"O0,+">;h"6,/A+">08-68+"65".+786.0".+55+"-08)*+8+"+1*1-+,-*%"3,"+EE+--0"1*(*5+"[".6-0"6,/A+".6*""
>+8*0.*".*"1*//*-NH"(+,-8+";,Q*,-+,1*E*/6O*0,+".+*">+8*0.*".*"786,"/65.0">;h"(0.*E*/68+"56"/0(>01*O*0,+"
4+7+-65+".+55+">65;.*H"/0,"/0,1+7;+,-+"101-*-;O*0,+".+55+">*6,-+"/A+"*,-+84+,70,0",+556"E08(6O*0,+"
.+556"-08)6"/0,"1>+/*+">*`"8+1*1-+,-*"65"/65.0"+"6556"1*//*-N%"k//088+"6--;68+";,6">05*-*/6".*">*6,*E*/6O*0,+"
-+88*-08*65+"(*86-6">+8"1/0,7*;868+"56"(*,6//*6".*8+--6".+5"/6()*6(+,-0".Q;10".+5"1;050%"
Potenziale di adattamento
b6"1-86-+7*6"/+,-865+">+8"(*-*768+"75*"+EE+--*".+*"/6()*6(+,-*"/5*(6-*/*"/0,1*1-+",+55Q+4*-68+"-;--*"*"E6--08*"
.*"*,E5;+,O6",+76-*4*"677*;,-*4*H"*,">68-*/0568+",+5"1+--08+".+55Q678*/05-;86%"^">68-*/0568(+,-+"*(>08-6,-+"
/8+68+H"56..04+",0,"+1*1-6,0H".+55+"O0,+"/;1/*,+--0"*,-08,0"655+"68++";(*.+".+5">6+1677*0"678*/050%""
F68+))+"*,05-8+"(05-0"46,-677*010">+8"56")*0.*4+81*-N"8*>8*1-*,68+"5+"O0,+";(*.+H"10>86--;--0",+55+"68++"
.*">*6,;86H"+"648+))+"1+,10"-08,68+"6";(*.*E*/68+"5+"-08)*+8+">801/*;76-+",+75*";5-*(*"&99"6,,*%"V86,.+"
*(>08-6,O6"8*4+1-+"6,/A+"14*5;>>68+"5Q*,-+8/0,,+11*0,+"-86"75*"A6)*-6-".*">8+7*0",+55+"68++"678*/05+H"*""
,;(+801*"E011*">0-8+))+80"E;,7+8+".6"/088*.0*">0-+,O*65(+,-+";-*5*OO6)*5*"1+",+"4+,*11+"(*75*086-6"56"
R;65*-N%"F0,0"86//0(6,.6-+"5+"(*1;8+".*"/0,1+846O*0,+"+e_1*-;H"6."+1%",+*"7*68.*,*")0-6,*/*H">+8"5+"1>+/*+"
>68-*/0568(+,-+"(*,6//*6-+H"10>86--;--0"1+",0,"4+,70,0"8+65*OO6-+">+8"-+(>0"0"8*1;5-6,0"*,+EE*/6/*"5+"
/0,-+(>086,++"(*1;8+".*"8*,6-;865*OO6O*0,+%"F0,0">0*"+11+,O*65*";,6"(6>>6-;86"/0(>5+-6"+";,"(0,*-0_
8677*0"/01-6,-+".+55+"O0,+";(*.+">+8"+4*.+,O*68+"*5"46508+"+"5Q;,*/*-N".*"R;+1-*"A6)*-6-H">0*/Ac"56"(6,_
/6,O6".*".6-*"65"8*7;68.0"1*"8*>+8/;0-+",+76-*46(+,-+"1;556"/0,1+846O*0,+"+"56">80-+O*0,+".+75*"1-+11*%"
"
!"0"9
;':%'++
Cause dei rischi
U86"*"E6--08*"/5*(6-*/*"/A+"*,E5;+,O6,0"*"/081*".Q6/R;6">011*6(0"/*-68+"5Q6;(+,-0".+556"-+(>+86-;86"
.+55Q6/R;6H"*"/6()*6(+,-*",+5"8+7*(+".*".+E5;110",+5"/0810".+5"7*08,0"+".+55Q6,,0"+"5Q*,/8+(+,-0".*"
$2"
"
E+,0(+,*"+1-8+(*"/0(+"56"1*//*-N"+"5+"E08-*">8+/*>*-6O*0,*%"P"86..8*OO6(+,-*"1-08*/*".+*"E*;(*H"5Q;-*5*OO0"
.+55Q+,+87*6"*.80+5+--8*/6H"*5">8+5*+40".*"6/R;6">+8"468*"1/0>*"+"56"/0,/+11*0,+".*".*8*--*".Q6/R;6"A6,,0""
(0.*E*/6-0",0-+405(+,-+"*"/08>*"*.8*/*",6-;865*".+55Q'5-0"'.*7+"+"1-6,,0">8040/6,.0"1+(>8+">*`"1>+110"
/0,E5*--*".*";-*5*OO0%"b+"E5;--;6O*0,*".+*"5*4+55*"*.8*/*H"75*"6>>08-*"678*/05*"+"E68(6/+;-*/*H"*">8+>686-*"08(0,65*H"
5+"(*/80>561-*/A+"+"*5"165+"1-86.65+"A6,,0";,"*(>6--0",+76-*40"1;556"R;65*-N".+55Q6/R;6%"L;86,-+"*">+8*0.*"
.*"1*//*-N"1*"8*.;/+"*5".+E5;110",+556"(677*08">68-+".+*"/081*".Q6/R;6H">+8"/;*"6;(+,-6"56"/0,/+,-86O*0,+".*"
6>>08-*".*",6-;86">;,-;65+"0".*EE;16H"/A+"6"5080"405-6">0110,0"64+8+";,"(677*08+"*(>6--0"1;556"R;65*-N"
.+55Q6/R;6%"
P5"86..8*OO6(+,-0".+*"-86--*"E5;4*65*">;h"/0(>08-68+";,"6;(+,-0".+5"8*1/A*0".*"*,0,.6O*0,+"*,"/610".*"
+4+,-*"+1-8+(*H">+8/Ac",+556"(677*08">68-+".+*"/61*"6,/A+"5+"O0,+".*"1/050"10,0"611+,-*%"V5*"+/01*1-+(*"
.+55+"E08+1-+"8*>68*65*"10,0"*,"7+,+8+"/0(>5+11*".*"A6)*-6-"(05-0".*,6(*/*H"*,"786.0".*"6.6--681*"/0,"8+56_
-*46"86>*.*-N"655+"(;-+405*"/0,.*O*0,*".+5"1*-0H"6"/0,.*O*0,+"/A+".*1>0,76,0".*"1>6O*0"1;EE*/*+,-+H"/016"/A+"
,0,"644*+,+"*,"786,">68-+".+55Q'5-0"'.*7+%"
P5"/6()*6(+,-0".+55+"/0,.*O*0,*"6)*0-*/A+"1*"8*E5+--+"6,/A+"*,";,6"(0.*E*/6".+556")*0/+,01*"P",+0)*0-6H"
/0(+"5+"1>+/*+"6550/-0,+".*"76()+8*"+".*">+1/*H"1*"1-6,,0".*EE0,.+,.0"655Q*,-+8,0"+"5;,70"*"/081*".Q6/R;6"+"
>0110,0"65-+868+"*,"(0.0">+8(6,+,-+"5Q+R;*5*)8*0".+75*"+/01*1-+(*"6/R;6-*/*"G\*+.8*1-"+-"65%H"!9!!m""
\*+.8*1-H"!9!#J%""
Situazione attuale
b6")*0.*4+81*-N".+*"/081*".Q6/R;6"["E08-+(+,-+"*,E5;+,O6-6".6556"1/0(>6816".*"468*+-N".*"0876,*1(*"4*4+,-*"
*,"-;--0"*5"(0,.0%"'"/6;16".+5"8*1/65.6(+,-0"750)65+H"6,/A+"*,"'5-0"'.*7+"*"/081*".Q6/R;6"1*"1-6,,0"8*1/65_
.6,.0"G\*+.8*1-"+-"65%H"!9!!J%"V*N"-+(>+86-;8+".+55Q6/R;6"1;>+8*08*"6"!9]"C">8040/6,0";,0"1-8+11".6"/6_
508+",+*"165(0,*.*"+">+8*0.*">805;,76-*".*"-+(>+86-;8+"1;>+8*08*"6"!:]"C"10,0"6..*8*--;86"5+-65*"G@6,lA;81-"
x"{*,7H"!9&9m"F-+*,)6;+8H"!9!!J%"\0,">6-*86,,0"1050"*">+1/*">+8"5Q6;(+,-0".+55+"-+(>+86-;8+".+55Q6/R;6H"
(6"6,/A+"*"(6/80*,4+8-+)86-*"G>*//05*"*,4+8-+)86-*"/A+"4*40,0"1;5"E0,.0J"1686,,0"/05>*-*".*8+--6(+,-+"+"
*,.*8+--6(+,-+D".*8+--6(+,-+H">+8/Ac"(05-+"1>+/*+"10,0"5+76-+"6"1>+/*E*/*"*,-+84655*".*"-+(>+86-;86"+"
R;*,.*",0,">0110,0">*`"/050,*OO68+".+-+8(*,6-*"-86--*".*"E*;(+%"P,.*8+--6(+,-+H">+8/Ac"50"1/*075*(+,-0"
.+55+",+4*"+".+*"7A*6//*6*"(0.*E*/A+8N"*,"(0.0"1*7,*E*/6-*40"5+"/0,.*O*0,*".+*"/081*".Q6/R;6"+"648N"R;*,.*"
;,"*(>6--0".*8+--0"1;5"/*/50".*"4*-6".+*">*//05*"0876,*1(*%"@0*/Ac"R;+1-*";5-*(*"140570,0";,"8;050"E0,.6_
(+,-65+",+556"/6>6/*-N".*"6;-0.+>;86O*0,+".+*"/081*".Q6/R;6"+"10,0"6,/A+"/*)0">+8"*">+1/*H"*"/6()*6(+,-*"
/5*(6-*/*"8*/A*+.+86,,0"6.6--6(+,-*"1*7,*E*/6-*4*%"bQ6;(+,-0".+556"-+(>+86-;86".+55Q6/R;6H"10>86--;--0"*,"
/0()*,6O*0,+"/0,"56"8*.;O*0,+".+*"E5;11*".Q6/R;6".;86,-+"*">+8*0.*".*"1*//*-NH">;h"*,05-8+"E6408*8+"56""
/8+1/*-6".+55+"657A+%"P5"/0,-+,;-0".*"011*7+,0",+55Q6/R;6".*(*,;*1/+"+">;h"6"1;6"405-6"*,E5;*8+",+76-*46_
(+,-+"1;5">6-8*(0,*0"*--*/0"+"1;556"R;65*-N".+55Q6/R;6%"
P5".+/5*,0".+556"E6;,6"*--*/6"*,"'5-0"'.*7+"[">68-*/0568(+,-+"*(>8+11*0,6,-+H"6"/6;16".+55+"0>+8+".*""
>80-+O*0,+".+*"/081*".Q6/R;6"+".+55Q*,-+88;O*0,+".+5"/0,-*,;;(",6-;865+".+*"/081*".Q6/R;6%"
Potenziale situazione futura
bQ6;(+,-0".+556"-+(>+86-;86">08-6"6";,"/6()*6(+,-0"-+(>0865+",+5"8+7*(+".*".+E5;110H">0*/Ac";,6""
(*,08+"R;6,-*-N".*"6/R;6"4*+,+"*((676OO*,6-6"/0(+",+4+"+"5+";5-*(+"68++"756/*65*"1*"1/*0570,0%"Z;+1-*"
/6()*6(+,-*",+55+"/0,.*O*0,*"6)*0-*/A+"1*"8*E5+--+86,,0"6,/A+",+55+")*0/+,01*".+*"/081*".Q6/R;6"65*(+,_
-6-*".6*"7A*6//*6*D"1>+/*+"65-6(+,-+"1>+/*65*OO6-+"/+8/A+86,,0"-86--*".*"/081*".Q6/R;6">*`"+5+46-*"GR;+1-0"
>+8h",0,"["1+(>8+">011*)*5+J"0"1/0(>68*86,,0".+5"-;--0%"
C0,"*5"/6()*6(+,-0".+55Q6,.6(+,-0".+55+">8+/*>*-6O*0,*"+"50"1/*075*(+,-0".+*"7A*6//*6*H"1*"1-6"(0.*E*_
/6,.0"6,/A+"*5"E5;110".+*"E*;(*%"@0110,0"/01d"4+,*81*"6"/8+68+"405;(*".*".+E5;110">*`"*88+70568*"+";,"6;_
(+,-0".+5"8*1/A*0".*"+801*0,+%"b6"8*.;O*0,+".+5"E5;110"*.8*/0"G(+,0">8+/*>*-6O*0,*H"(677*08*">8+5*+4*".Q"
6/R;6J"(0.*E*/A+8N"50"1-6-0"/A*(*/0".+*"/08>*"*.8*/*D"5+"/0,/+,-86O*0,*".*",;-8*+,-*"6;(+,-+86,,0H"56""
-+(>+86-;86".+55Q6/R;6"165*8N"+".*(*,;*8N"56"/0,/+,-86O*0,+".*"011*7+,0",+55Q6/R;6%"Z;+1-+"65-+86O*0,*"
.+55+"/0,.*O*0,*"6)*0-*/A+"6486,,0";,"*(>6--0"6,/A+"1;55+")*0/+,01*%"@+8"/0,-861-68+"*"/6()*6(+,-*",+*""
(0.+55*".*">8+/*>*-6O*0,+H",+5")*56,/*0"*.8*/0H",+556"-+(>+86-;86"+",+55+"/0,.*O*0,*"+/0507*/A+H"[",+/+116_
8*0"(*75*0868+"5Q*,-+8/0,,+11*0,+H"56"7+1-*0,+".+55+"8*1081+"*.8*/A+"+"56">80-+O*0,+".+55Q6()*+,-+H",0,/Ac"
8*.;88+"*"E6--08*",+76-*4*",0,"/088+56-*"/0,"*5"/5*(6"G6."+1%"6>>08-*H">8+5*+4*H"104861E8;--6(+,-0J%"
:9"
"
Potenziale di adattamento
@+8"/0,-861-68+"75*"+EE+--*".+*"/6()*6(+,-*"/5*(6-*/*"1;*"/081*".Q6/R;6"0//088+"-80468+"56"7*;1-6"/0()*,6_
O*0,+"-86"(*1;8+"+/0507*/A+H"-+/,*/A+H">05*-*/A+"+"10/*65*%"P"/081*".Q6/R;6"A6,,0"1;)*-0"*(>08-6,-*"(0.*E*_
/A+">+8"5;,7A*"-86--*"+"R;+1-0">;h"6,/A+"+11+8+"4*1-0"/0(+";,Q0>>08-;,*-ND"56"1-8;--;86".+*"/081*".Q6/R;6"
>;h"+11+8+",0-+405(+,-+"(*75*086-6"786O*+"6"*,-+84+,-*".*"6(>5*6(+,-0"+"6"(*1;8+"*,-+1+"6"8*.;88+"56""
.*1/0,-*,;*-N".+*"E5;11*%"'5"(0(+,-0H">+8hH"*"8+R;*1*-*".*")61+">+8"+4+,-;65*"*,-+84+,-*".*"6(>5*6(+,-0"
,0,"10,0"10..*1E6--*"*,"(0.0"6.+7;6-0%"T*(;04+8+")688*+8+"/0(+".*7A+"0"1)6886(+,-*"/A+"01-6/056,0"*5"
E5;110",6-;865+">;h"+11+8+".*"786,.+";-*5*-N">+8"*5"(6,-+,*(+,-0"0"*5"8*>8*1-*,0".+55Q*,-+78*-N"+/0507*/6%"
@+8">8+1+8468+"56")*0.*4+81*-N"6/R;6-*/6"6,/A+"*,"E;-;80H"10>86--;--0".;86,-+"*">+8*0.*".*"1*//*-NH"[",+/+1_
168*0"(6,-+,+8+"0"6;(+,-68+"/01-6,-+(+,-+"*"E5;11*"8+1*.;*%"^"*,05-8+"*(>08-6,-+"8*>8*1-*,68+"5Q*,-+8/0,_
,+11*0,+"-86"*"/081*".Q6/R;6H">+8"E6408*8+"56")*0.*4+81*-N"+"56">80-+O*0,+".+556"E6;,6"6/R;6-*/6H"*,"R;6,-0"
1050"*,"R;+1-0"(0.0"5+"1>+/*+">0110,0"1>01-681*"4+810"68++">*`"E8+1/A+%"3,6"E*--6"4+7+-6O*0,+")01/A*46"
5;,70"*"/081*".Q6/R;6"/0,-8*);*1/+"6"8*.;88+"*5"8*1/65.6(+,-0"+"75*"6>>08-*".*EE;1*%"b+"O0,+";(*.+">0110,0"
E;,7+8+".6"-6(>0,*",6-;865*"/0,-80"5+"*,0,.6O*0,*"+".6"1*1-+(*".*"E*5-8677*0">+8"(*75*0868+"56"R;65*-N"
.+55Q6/R;6%"P,"R;+1-Q0--*/6"168+))+"46,-677*010H"6."+1+(>*0H"8*>8*1-*,68+"(*86-6(+,-+"5+"E08+1-+"8*>68*65*H"
1*6">+8"56")*0.*4+81*-N"/A+">+8"56">80-+O*0,+".655+"*,0,.6O*0,*%"C0,/+.+,.0">*`"1>6O*0"6*"E*;(*H"[">011*)*5+"
.68+"4*-6"6."A6)*-6-".*4+81*E*/6-*D"68++".*"8*E;7*0"/0(+"56,/A+"0"86.*/*">0110,0"7686,-*8+"56"8*/050,*OO6_
O*0,+".*"0876,*1(*"4*4+,-*".0>0">+8*0.*".*"E08-+"E5;--;6O*0,+".+*"5*4+55*".+55Q6/R;6%"@+8"E6850H"["8*/A*+1-6"56"
/00>+86O*0,+"+"56"/0(>8+,1*0,+".*"(05-*"1077+--*"*,-+8+116-*H">0*/Ac"*"E0,.*4655+"10,0"7+,+865(+,-+";-*_
5*OO6-*">+8"5Q678*/05-;86%"@80(;04+8+"5Q678*/05-;86"101-+,*)*5+H"56"7+1-*0,+"E08+1-65+"+"5+"*,*O*6-*4+".*">+1/6"
>+8"8*.;88+"56">8+11*0,+"1;*"/081*".Q6/R;6"+"*,/08677*68+"*5"/0*,4057*(+,-0".+556"/0(;,*-N",+556">*6,*E*/6_
O*0,+"+",+55Q6--;6O*0,+".*"(*1;8+".*">80-+O*0,+"+"/0,1+846O*0,+".+*"/081*".Q6/R;6">;h"E6408*8+"5Q*,-+78*-N"
.+*"/081*"1-+11*%"P,05-8+H"75*"+/01*1-+(*"f16,*g"10,0"*,"786.0".*"/0,-861-68+"(+75*0"75*"+EE+--*".+*"/6()*6_
(+,-*"/5*(6-*/*%"
3,6"/0()*,6O*0,+".*"R;+1-+"(*1;8+">;h"8*.;88+"65"(*,*(0"75*"+EE+--*",+76-*4*".+*"/6()*6(+,-*"/5*(6-*/*"
1;*"/081*".Q6/R;6"+"86EE08O68+"56"8+1*5*+,O6".+75*"+/01*1-+(*"+".+55+"/0(;,*-N";(6,+%"
"
Sommario – Rischi principali
a T*1/A*0".*">+8.*-6".*">0>056O*0,*",+75*"+/01*1-+(*"E08+1-65*"+"(0,-6,*"6."65-6"R;0-6"6"/6;16"
.*"+4+,-*"+1-8+(*"/0(+"1*//*-NH"E08-*">8+/*>*-6O*0,*"+"*,0,.6O*0,*H"*,/+,.*")01/A*4*H"E86,+"+"
4+,-0%"
a T*1/A*0".*">+8.*-6".*"A6)*-6-"+".*"1/0(>6816".+55+"1>+/*+",+75*"+/01*1-+(*"E08+1-65*H".*"65-6"
(0,-67,6"+"678*/05*H"6"/6;16".+55Q*,/6>6/*-N".*"6.6--681*"655Q6;(+,-0".+55+"-+(>+86-;8+""
05-8+"/A+"655+"5*(*-6-+"0>>08-;,*-N".*"(*786O*0,+".04;-+"6556"E86((+,-6O*0,+".+75*"A6)*-6-"
+"655+")688*+8+"-0>0786E*/A+%"
a T*1/A*0".*"1/0(>6816".+75*"A6)*-6-"5+76-*"6*"7A*6//*6*"+".+55+"5080"1>+/*+"6"/6;16".+55Q688+-86_
(+,-0"+".+556">80)6)*5+"1/0(>6816".+*"7A*6//*6*"+".+55+"68++"8*/0>+8-+".6",+4+">+8+,,+%"
a T*1/A*0".*"1/0(>6816".+55+"/0(;,*-N"6.6--6-+"655+"O0,+";(*.+"6"/6;16".+55Q6;(+,-0".+55+"
-+(>+86-;8+"
a T*1/A*0".*".*(*,;O*0,+".+55+"1>+/*+"6;-0/-0,+"6"/6;16".+55Q6;(+,-0".+55+"1>+/*+"*,461*4+"+"
6.6--6-+"65"/65.0H">+8"5Q6;(+,-0".+55+"-+(>+86-;8+"+"5+">+8-;8)6O*0,*"7+,+86-+".6"+4+,-*"
+1-8+(*%"
– T*1/A*0".*"6.6--6(+,-0"6*"/6()*6(+,-*"/5*(6-*/*D"*"/6()*6(+,-*",+55Q678*/05-;86"+""
5Q6;(+,-0".+556"8*/A*+1-6".*"+,+87*6"8*,,046)*5+">0-8+))+80"(+--+8+"6"8*1/A*0"A6)*-6-"+"
1>+/*+"+"7+,+868+"/0,E5*--*">+8"5Q6/R;6%
"
:&"
"
Bibliografia
– Ceresa, F., Brambilla, M., Kvist, L., Vitulano, S., Pes, M., Tomasi, L., Pedrini, P., Bettega, C., Anderle, M., Hilpold, A., Kranebit-
ter, P., 2023. Restricted dispersal and inbreeding in a high-elevation bird across the ‘sky islands’ of the European Alps. J. Bio-
geogr. https://doi.org/10.1111/jbi.14787
– Guariento, E., Rüdisser, J., Fiedler, K., Paniccia, C., Stifter, S., Tappeiner, U., Seeber, J., Hilpold, A., 2022. From diverse to sim-
ple: butterfly communities erode from extensive grasslands to intensively used farmland and urban areas. Biodivers. Con-
serv. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10531-022-02498-3
– Niedrist, G.H., 2023. Substantial warming of Central European mountain rivers under climate change. Reg. Environ. Change.
https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-023-02037-y
– Niedrist, G.H., Hilpold, A., Kranebitter, P., 2022. Fischbesatz in Südtirol während der letzten 30 Jahre: konstante Priorisierung
nicht-heimischer Arten. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.7215789
– Pankhurst, N.W., King, H.R., 2010. Temperature and salmonid reproduction: implications for aquaculture. J. Fish Biol.
– Steinbauer, P., 2022. Negative Auswirkungen von sommerlichen Hitzeperioden und Wassermangel auf Fischhaltung und
Fischzucht. Fachliche Beiträge des Tiergesundheitsdienstes Bayern e.v.
– Wilhaml, T., Hilpold, A., 2006. Rote Liste der gefährdeten Gefäßpflanzen Südtirols.
– Zanini, S., Dainese, M., Kopf, T., Leitinger, G., Tappeiner, U., 2024. Maintaining habitat diversity at small scales benefits wild
bees and pollination services in mountain apple orchards. Ecol. Solut. Evid. 5, e12320. https://doi.org/10.1002/2688-
8319.12320
:!"
"
4.3
Agricoltura
Autrici e autore: Verena Kircher, Clara Horvath, Christian Hoffmann
"
Figura 17: Catena degli impatti che illustra i pericoli, l'esposizione e la vulnerabilità del settore agricolo
"
Introduzione
bQ678*/05-;86"[";,0".+*"1+--08*">*`"*,-+8+116-*".6*"/6()*6(+,-*"/5*(6-*/*"GS'FWH"!9!#J%"C*8/6"*5"!B"q".+556"
1;>+8E*/*+"65-06-+1*,6"[";-*5*OO6-6">+8"5Q678*/05-;86H"/01-*-;*-6">8*,/*>65(+,-+".6">86-*"+">61/05*">+8(6_
,+,-*"G/*8/6"*5"KBH$"qJH".6"/05-;8+"68)08++"G&#H!"qJ"+".6"1+(*,6-*4*"+"08-677*"GBH#"qJ%"F+/0,.0"5QP1-*-;-0">+8"
56"8*/+8/6"+/0,0(*/6"G!9!&J"5Q678*/05-;86"*,"'5-0"'.*7+"86>>8+1+,-6"*5"$H?"q".+5"@Pb%"b+".*EE+8+,O+".*"65-*-;_
.*,+"+"56"/0,1+7;+,-+".*4+81*-N"/5*(6-*/6"8+,.0,0">011*)*5+"56"/05-*46O*0,+".*";,6"786,"468*+-N".*"/05-;8+%"
'"/6;16".+556"1;6">01*O*0,+"655Q*,-+8,0".+55+"'5>*H"/A+">80-+77+"56"8+7*0,+".655+"6))0,.6,-*">8+/*>*-6_
O*0,*H"5Q678*/05-;86".*>+,.+".6*"1*1-+(*".*"*88*76O*0,+"1;>>5+(+,-68+H"10>86--;--0",+5"1;."+",+55Q04+1-".+5"
@6+1+"Gi+)*1/A"+-"65%H"!9&BJ%"L+*"/*8/6"&:9"(*5*0,*".*"(+-8*"/;)*"6,,;*".*"/0,1;(0"*.8*/0"-0-65+".+55Q'5-0"
'.*7+H"/*8/6"*5":K"q"["8*/0,.;/*)*5+"655Q678*/05-;86"GC68(*7,056H"!9&KJ%"'"E80,-+".+55Q6;(+,-0".+5"E6))*10_
7,0"*88*7;0"+".+556".*(*,;O*0,+".+556".*1>0,*)*5*-N"*.8*/6"6"/6;16".+*"/6()*6(+,-*"/5*(6-*/*H"1*"1-6,,0""
465;-6,.0",;04+"1-86-+7*+".*"1-0//677*0"+";-*5*OO0"+EE*/*+,-+".+55Q6/R;6%"bQ678*/05-;86"1*"-8046"6,/A+".*"
E80,-+"6556"1E*.6".*"8+65*OO68+"(*1;8+".*"6.6--6(+,-0"6.+7;6-+"65"5;070"*,"/;*"[">8+1+,-+"GMSWbH"!9!9J%"
Cause dei rischi
bQ6;(+,-0".+55+"-+(>+86-;8+H"*"/6()*6(+,-*",+*"(0.+55*".*">8+/*>*-6O*0,+"0"75*"+4+,-*"(+-+080507*/*"
+1-8+(*"G7+56-+"-68.*4+H"786,.*,+H"-+(>+1-+H">*077+"*,-+,1+H"/65.0H"1*//*-NH"+//%J"A6,,0";,"*(>6--0"1;*"
>80/+11*".*"14*5;>>0H"1;55+"8*1081+"*.8*/A+"+".+5"1;050H"1;55Q*(>04+8*(+,-0".+556"101-6,O6"0876,*/6"0"
1;55Q+801*0,+".+5"1;050"+"*,E5;+,O6,0".*8+--6(+,-+"56"R;6,-*-NH"56"R;65*-N"+"56"1-6)*5*-N".+*"86//05-*"GMSWbH"
Esterno: ad esempio legati
al clima aumento e
variazioni dei prezzi delle
risorse produttive e
operative (ad es. mangimi,
elettricità, energia).
Nuovi sistemi di
irrigazione (prati,
colture permanenti di
recente impianto)
Mancanza di soluzioni
di stoccaggio per
lʼacqua
Irrigazione eciente e
meno orientata alla
domanda
Legame con i rischi climatici: Biodiversità, gestione delle acque, salute, economia
Colture permanenti: frutticoltura e viticolturaColtivazione dei cereali e colture speciali
Coltivazione dei pascoli e allevamento di animali
Svernamento/sviluppo
di nuovi parassiti
Diminuzione dei raccolti o danni
alle colture permanenti
Perdita delle
produzioni di
foraggio nelle
zone di pascolo
Stress da calore
negli allevamenti e
perdite di resa
nellʼindustria
lattiero casearia
Aumento dei costi di produzione a causa delle misure di protezione attiva
Minore sicurezza dei raccolti e
qualità dei prodotti nellʼagricoltura
e nella coltivazione di ortaggi
Mancanza
di
conoscenze
e pratiche
sullʼadatt-
amento al
clima in
agricoltura
Agricoltura Aumento delle temperature e del calore
Aumento dei periodi di siccità
Piogge e grandinate
più intense
Stagione di crescita
più precoce e lunga
Danni causati da
gelate tardive durante
la fase vegetativa
Aumento della domanda
di acqua per lʼirrigazione
Carenza d'acqua per
l'irrigazione
Danni ai pascoli a
causa di frane e colate
di fango
Pericoli legati al clima
Impatti climatici
Sistemi esposti
Vulnerabilità, fattori di rischio non climatici
Rischio principale con necessità di intervento
urgente alto medio
:#"
"
!9!9J%"P"/6()*6(+,-*"/5*(6-*/*">0110,0"6,/A+">8040/68+"56"/0(>6816".*",;04*"0876,*1(*",0/*4*"+."+8)+"
*,E+1-6,-*H"05-8+"6"/0(>80(+--+8+"56"165;-+"+"*5")+,+11+8+".+75*"6,*(65*"+"56">80.;--*4*-N".+75*"655+46(+,-*"
GMSWbH"!9!9JH"/0,";,"/0,1+7;+,-+"*(>6--0"1;"E6--08*"10/*0_+/0,0(*/*"/0(+"56"8+..*-*4*-NH"*">8+OO*".+*"
>80.0--*"65*(+,-68*H"56"R;65*-N"+"56".*1>0,*)*5*-N".*">80.0--*"G.+5"@0O0"+-"65%H"!9&2m"S'FWH"!9!#m"z+*7+5H"
!9&&J%"bQ*,/8+(+,-0".+55+"-+(>+86-;8+"+"*5"/0,1+7;+,-+">805;,76(+,-0".+5">+8*0.0".*"4+7+-6O*0,+">01_
10,0"6;(+,-68+"56">80.;--*4*-N".+55+"1*,705+"/05-;8+H"*,"/610".*".*1>0,*)*5*-N".*"6/R;6"+",;-8*+,-*"1;EE*_
/*+,-*"GM'<3H"!9&#J%"P,"65/;,*"/61*H"*"/6()*6(+,-*",+*"(0.+55*".*">8+/*>*-6O*0,+">0110,0"6,/A+"6--+,;68+"
56"(*,6//*6".*"65/;,+"(656--*+"+">68611*-*%"U;--64*6H"56"(677*08">68-+".+*"/6()*6(+,-*"/5*(6-*/*"1*"8*>+8_
/;0-+",+76-*46(+,-+"1;5"1+--08+"678*/050"GMSWbH"!9!9m"S'FWH"!9!#J%"
Obiettivi prioritari e temi trasversali
C'D,&$3$:,!,!);%,&+'&,!1D+;)>>'!(+!1+1%,8+!(+!+&&+=3*+'$,!,22+:+,$%+!
b6".+E*,*O*0,+".+55+">8*08*-N".+55+"8*1081+"*.8*/A+"+"5Q6--;6O*0,+".*",;04*">807+--*".*"*,7+7,+8*6"*.86;5*/6"
86>>8+1+,-6,0"7*N"077*";,6"1E*.6">+8"56"10/*+-N"GU675*64*,*"x"\*+.8*1-H"!9!#m"U6>>+*,+8"+-"65%H"!9!9J%"
X*1-6"56"1/681*-N".Q6/R;6"/A+"1*">8+4+.+">+8"*5"E;-;80H"*,"'5-0"'.*7+"1*"8+,.+"*(>+55+,-+"56",+/+11*-N".*""
6--;68+";,6"1-86-+7*6"/0,7*;,-6"6"5;,70"-+8(*,+">+8"50"1-0//677*0"+"56"7+1-*0,+".+55+"6/R;+H"/0,";,"6.6-_
-6(+,-0"/0,E08(+"65"@*6,0"7+,+865+".+55w;-*5*OO6O*0,+".+55+"6/R;+">;))5*/A+GC68(*7,056H"!9&KJ%"'"-65"
E*,+H"["*(>08-6,-+".+-+8(*,68+"*5"E6))*107,0"*.8*/0".+55+"468*+"50/65*-N"+"/05-;8+H"(0,*-0868+"*5"/0,1;(0"+"
56"R;65*-N".+55Q6/R;6H".+-+8(*,68,+"56"R;6,-*-N"+"*5"-+(>0".*".*1>0,*)*5*-N"+"E6408*8+";,6"/0(;,*/6O*0,+"
-861>68+,-+"+"56"1+,1*)*5*OO6O*0,+".*"-;--+"5+">68-*"*,-+8+116-+"65"E*,+".*".+-+8(*,68+"+4+,-;65*"(*1;8+".*"
8*1>68(*0%"F>+110"[",+/+1168*0"/0,4+8-*8+"*5"1*1-+(6".*"*88*76O*0,+"6"7+1-*0,+"/00>+86-*46">+8"/0,1+,-*8+"
;,Q*88*76O*0,+"E5+11*)*5+"+."+EE*/*+,-+H">+8"/;*"10,0",+/+1168*"E*,6,O*6(+,-*"+"*,4+1-*(+,-*"*,">80/+11*".*"
8*1>68(*0"*.8*/0"1;>>08-6-*".6".6-*H"/0,1;5+,O6"-+/,*/6"+"8*/+8/6"1;"(+-0.*".*"*88*76O*0,+"+EE*/*+,-*%"
"
K&'8'*+'$,!(,;;3!9+'(+D,&1+%B<!(,;;3!13;)%,!(,;!1)';'!,!(+!>&3%+:A,!3=&+:';,!1'1%,$+9+;+
@+8"E68"1d"/A+"56">80.;O*0,+"678*/056".*4+,-*">*`"8+1*5*+,-+"65"/6()*6(+,-0"/5*(6-*/0H"10,0",+/+1168*+"
1-86-+7*+"+"(*1;8+">+8"/8+68+H"(6,-+,+8+"+"1-6)*5*OO68+"56"101-6,O6"0876,*/6"+"*5"/0,-+,;-0".*",;-8*+,-*"
.+*"-+88+,*"+">+8"8*>8*1-*,68+"56"165;-+"+"5+"E;,O*0,*",6-;865*".+5"1;050%"k//088+">0*"14*5;>>68+"+"6--;68+"
1-86-+7*+">+8"56">80-+O*0,+".+*">6+1677*"678*/05*".*">8+7*0"*,"-+8(*,*"+/0507*/*H"56">80(0O*0,+".*">86-*/A+"
6780+/0507*/A+"+"*5"/0,105*.6(+,-0".+55+"E;,O*0,*".+75*"+/01*1-+(*%"
"
!"5"#
;.8677'-.3*:86+(+633(26%()4++
Cause dei rischi
P"5;,7A*">+8*0.*".*"/65.0"+"1*//*-N"65-+86,0"*5")*56,/*0"*.8*/0".+*">61/05*H"/0,"+EE+--*".*8+--*"1;556"/8+1/*-6"+"
1;556"R;65*-N".+55+">*6,-+"E08677+8+"+"1;55+"8+56-*4+"8+1+%"P,E5;+,O6,0"+".6,,+77*6,0"*,05-8+"56"/0(>01*_
O*0,+".+5"(6,-0"+8)010H"6;(+,-6,.0"*5"8*1/A*0".*"+801*0,+"*,"/610".*">8+/*>*-6O*0,*"+5+46-+"+."+4+,-*""
(+-+080507*/*"+1-8+(*"GW51|}+8H"!9&BJ%"b+"/0,1+7;+,O+".+*"/6()*6(+,-*"/5*(6-*/*"8+,.0,0">*`"+5+46-0"*5"
8*1/A*0",+75*"655+46(+,-*%"b0"1-8+11".6"/6508+"/0(>80(+--+"56"-+8(08+7056O*0,+".+75*"6,*(65*"+"A6";,""
*(>6--0",+76-*40"1;55+".*E+1+"*((;,*-68*+H"1;55Q611;,O*0,+".*"(6,7*(+"+"1;556">80.;O*0,+".*"56--+"GMSWbH"
!9!9J%"P"/6()*6(+,-*"/5*(6-*/*"E6408*1/0,0"*,">68-+"5Q6;(+,-0".+556"(*,6//*6".*"*,E+O*0,*H",0,/Ac"56"8*_
/0(>6816"+"56".*EE;1*0,+".*"+>*.+(*+"6,*(65*"+".*",;04*">6-07+,*"G6."+1%"56"E+))8+"/6-68865+".+75*"04*,*J"
GMSWbH"!9!9m"C0((*11*0,+"W;80>+6H"!992J%"P"E+,0(+,*"(+-+080507*/*"+1-8+(*H"/0(+"5+"E08-*">8+/*>*-6_
O*0,*H">0110,0"6,/A+"6;(+,-68+"*5"8*1/A*0".*"*,/*.+,-*"1;5"564080%"
Situazione attuale
bQ655;,76(+,-0".+55+"1-67*0,*".*"4+7+-6O*0,+"A6";,"*(>6--0">01*-*40"1;556">80.;--*4*-N".+*">61/05*"6."65-6"
R;0-6"GU6>>+*,+8"+-"65%H"!9!9J%"U86"*5"!9&9"+"*5"!9!9H"56"1;>+8E*/*+">86-*46"*,"'5-0"'.*7+"[".*(*,;*-6".+5"
!$H$"qH"8677*;,7+,.0"*"&?9%&9!"+--68*%"P5":H$"qH"044+80"?$9"6O*+,.+".*">61/050H"A6,,0"6))6,.0,6-0""
5Q6--*4*-N",+75*";5-*(*".*+/*"6,,*"G*,">68-*/0568+"5+"68++"/05-*46-+"*,"(0.0"+1-+,1*40",+55+"8+7*0,*"65>*,+"+"
(0,-6,+J"GU6>>+*,+8"+-"65%H"!9!9JH"/0,"8*>+8/;11*0,*"1;556")*0.*4+81*-N"+/0507*/6H"1;55Q+1-+-*/6".+5">6+167_
7*0"+"1;55+"E;,O*0,*"10/*0_/;5-;865*".+*">61/05*"Gi055+8"x"M*1/A0EH"&2B9J%"'"/6;16".*">805;,76-*">+8*0.*".*""
1*//*-NH"5Q*88*76O*0,+"1-6"611;(+,.0";,"8;050"1+(>8+">*`"*(>08-6,-+",+556"E08677*/05-;86%"L+*"/*8/6"
:$"
"
!&?%999"+--68*".*"1;>+8E*/*+"678*/056"-0-65+"GF'UJH"/A+"/0(>8+,.+">86-*"+">61/05*H"1+(*,6-*4*"+"/05-;8+"08-*_
/05+JH"/*8/6"*5"&:"_"!9"q"["7*N"*88*76-0H"/088*1>0,.+,-+"65"$:"q".+5"E6))*107,0"*.8*/0"678*/050"-0-65+""
GU6>>+*,+8"+-"65%H"!9!9J%"
Potenziale situazione futura
bQ*88*76O*0,+".+*">61/05*"A6".*(01-86-0"56"1;6";-*5*-N",+*">+8*0.*".*"1*//*-N">+8"56"1-6)*5*OO6O*0,+".+55+"8+1+"
E08677+8+"+"1*"8+,.+8N"1+(>8+">*`"*(>08-6,-+"*,"E;-;80"G@+86-0,+8"x"UA65A+*(+8H"!9!!JH"10>86--;--0"*,"
68++"*,"/;*"*,">6116-0"5Q*88*76O*0,+",0,"+86"/0,1*.+86-6",+/+1168*6"G6."+1%"*,"X65"@;1-+8*6J"GU6>>+*,+8"+-"
65%H"!9!9J%"P5">+8*0.0"+"56"R;6,-*-N".*"*88*76O*0,+".*>+,.0,0".655+"/686--+8*1-*/A+".+556">*6,-6"+".+5"1;050"
G/0(+"56">80E0,.*-N".+55+"86.*/*H"56"/6>6/*-N".*"/6(>0H"*5"/0,-+,;-0".*"1/A+5+-80"+".655+"/0,.*O*0,*"(+-+0_
80507*/A+"+",0,"/0,1+,-0,0"7+,+865*OO6O*0,*"G@+86-0,+8"x"UA65A+*(+8H"!9!!J%"bQ655;,76(+,-0".+556""
1-67*0,+"4+7+-6-*46">;h">805;,768+"*5">+8*0.0".*">61/050%"P,"R;+1-0"/0,-+1-0H".+,1*-N".*")+1-*6(+"6.+_
7;6-+"+";,Q6>>80>8*6-6"7+1-*0,+".+*">61/05*".*4+,-+86,,0"1+(>8+">*`"*(>08-6,-*">+8"0--*(*OO68+""
5Q;-*5*OO0".+556")*0(6116"*,"E;-;80%"b6".*(*,;O*0,+".+55+"68++"6">61/050"+"56",+/+11*-N".*"*88*76O*0,+""
6;(+,-6,0"56">8+11*0,+"+/0,0(*/6"1;55Q6--;65+"1+--08+"O00-+/,*/0%"F+"*5"E6))*107,0"65*(+,-68+".+55+"
;,*-N".*")+1-*6(+"6((+11+">+8"+--680",0,"[">*`"10..*1E6--0".65"E08677*0".*1>0,*)*5+H">;h"8+,.+8+",+/+1_
168*0"5Q6/R;*1-0".*"(6,7*(*"677*;,-*4*"0"5Q6EE*--0".*";5-+8*08*">61/05*"+"R;*,.*"65"/0,1+7;+,-+"6;(+,-0".+*"
>8+OO*%"V5*"6.+7;6(+,-*"-+/,*/*",+55Q655+46(+,-0"G1-655+H"*88*76O*0,+H"8*.;O*0,+".+5")+1-*6(+J"+"5Q*,/8+_
(+,-0".+55+"(656--*+">0110,0"/0(>08-68+";,";5-+8*08+"0,+8+"E*,6,O*68*0">+8"5+"6O*+,.+"678*/05+%"
Potenziale di adattamento
'5"E*,+".*"+4*-68+">80)5+(*"+"/68+,O+H"5Q6/R;6".*1>0,*)*5+".+4+"+11+8+";-*5*OO6-6"*,"(0.0"+EE*/*+,-+"G/E8%"
10--0/6>*-050 “Governance e ulteriore sviluppo di sistemi di irrigazione efficienti”J%"W1*1-0,0".*4+81+"105;_
O*0,*"-+/,*/A+">+8"(0,*-0868+"/0,-*,;6-*46(+,-+"+"*,"(0.0"+"6//;86-0"5Q6,.6(+,-0".+5">0-+,O*65+"
*.8*/0".+5"1;050"(+.*6,-+"-+,1*0(+-8*"G@+86-0,+8"x"UA65A+*(+8H"!9!!J%"@807+--*"/0(+"fF(68-"b6,.g""
;-*5*OO6,0"1+,108*".*".*"(0,*-08677*0".*";(*.*-N".+5"1;050"*,"E8;--*/05-;86"+"4*-*/05-;86"+"1+",+"1-6"1-;_
.*6,.0"5Q;10"6,/A+",+*">61/05*"G@+86-0,+8"x"UA65A+*(+8H"!9!!m"@8~,1-+8H"!9!9J%"P"1*1-+(*"611*/;86-*4*")6_
16-*"1;"*,.*/*"G*,.*/+"(+-+080507*/0J"*,-+786,0"*,"(0.0"1>+/*E*/0"5Q611*/;86O*0,+">+8"*5"8*168/*(+,-0".6,,*"
GM;/A+5*"+-"65%H"!9!#J"+">0110,0"6--+,;68+"5+"/0,1+7;+,O+"+/0,0(*/A+".+556"1*//*-N">+8"5+"/05-;8+"+8)6_
/++",+55+"'5>*%"GC61-+55*"+-"65%H"!9!#J%"@+8"(*75*0868+"*"1*1-+(*"611*/;86-*4*".048+))+80"+11+8+";5-+8*08(+,-+"
14*5;>>6-*".*4+81*"*,.*/*"+"E0,-*".*".6-*"*,,046-*4*"GM;/A+5*"+-"65%H"!9!#J%"P"(+-0.*".*"465;-6O*0,+")616-*"1;"
16-+55*-*"+"(0.+55*"/0,1+,-0,0"*,05-8+".*"7+1-*8+"/0,"5;,7*(*86,O6"5+"8*1081+"*.8*/A+%"b+">*6,-+"+"5+"468*+-N"
E08677+8+"0--*(*OO6-+"A6,,0";,6"5080"*(>08-6,O6H"/01d"/0(+"50"14*5;>>0"+"56"1>+8*(+,-6O*0,+".*"(*1/+5+"
.*"1+(+,-*">+8">86-*">+8(6,+,-*"/0,"R;65*-N"/A+"7686,-*1/6,0";,6");0,6"8+16"6,/A+"*,">+8*0.*".*"1*//*-N"
>805;,76-6"GF-6,O+5H"!9&2J%"F/+75*+8+";,Q65-+OO6".*"-675*0"(677*08+H";,",;(+80"0--*(65+".*"-675*"+";,""
0868*0"6.+7;6-0">+8"56"E65/*6-;86".+*">86-*">0110,0".*4+,-68+"465*.+"(*1;8+"678*/05+"/0,-80"50"1-8+11".6"
/6508+"+">+8"56"/0,1+846O*0,+".+556")*0.*4+81*-N"GW51|}+8H"!9&BJ%"F*"8+,.+"*,05-8+",+/+1168*0"6>>08-68+""
.+75*"6.+7;6(+,-*"-+/,*/*"/0(+"5Q*,1-6556O*0,+"+"5Q6((0.+8,6(+,-0".+*"1*1-+(*".*"*88*76O*0,+"+1*1-+,-*"
>+8"6;(+,-68+"56"R;0-6".*"1;>+8E*/*"*88*7;+%"F4*5;>>68+"+"101-+,+8+"+/0,0(*/6(+,-+",;04+"-+/,0507*+"
>+8"5+"1-655+"G1-655+"/5*(6-*OO6-+H"1*1-+(*".*"4+,-*56O*0,+H"*(>*6,-*".*",+);5*OO6O*0,+J">;h"1+84*8+">+8""
>80-+77+8+"75*"6,*(65*".65"1;88*1/65.6(+,-0"+".6556".*EE;1*0,+".*"67+,-*">6-07+,*%"P,"E;-;80"168N"0>>08_
-;,0"6.6--68+"56"1+5+O*0,+".+55+"86OO+"6,*(65*"6*"/6()*6(+,-*"/5*(6-*/*">8+4*1-*"+"675*"67+,-*">6-07+,*"/A+"
1*"14*5;>>+86,,0%"C0(+"/0,1+7;+,O6">01*-*46".+5"/6()*6(+,-0"/5*(6-*/0H">0-8+))+"+11+8+">011*)*5+""
6,-*/*>68+"56"165*-6"655w65>+77*0">+8";,w0--*(65+";-*5*OO6O*0,+".+*">61/05*%"@+8";,6"(*75*08+"/0((+8/*65*OO6_
O*0,+".+*">80.0--*"50/65*H"0//088+"1+,1*)*5*OO68+"*"/0,1;(6-08*"+"5Q*,.;1-8*6".+556"8*1-086O*0,+%"^",+/+1168*0"
>80(;04+,.0"*5">611677*0"6";,Q65*(+,-6O*0,+"6")611+"+(*11*0,*"/A+"-+,76"/0,-0"1*6".+5")+,+11+8+".+75*"
6,*(65*"1*6".+556">80-+O*0,+".+5"/5*(6H"/01d"E6/+,.0"1*"/8+6,0"*,/+,-*4*">+8"5+"6O*+,.+"678*/05+"+1-+,1*4+H"*5"
/A+">0-+,O*65(+,-+".N"655+"7*046,*"7+,+86O*0,*"(677*08*"1-*(05*",+5">08-68+"646,-*"56"7+1-*0,+".+55+"
6O*+,.+"678*/05+">6-+8,+%"
" "
::"
"
!"5"0
@.3*:8(+=(8%6)()4A+B8:C-.3*:86+(+2'4-.3*:86+
Cause dei rischi
P,"E8;--*/05-;86"+"4*-*/05-;86"*5"/5*(6"A6";,"*(>6--0".*8+--0"1;5">80/+110".*"(6-;86O*0,+H"1;556"8+16"+"1;556"
R;65*-N"G.+5"@0O0"+-"65%H"!9&2J%"U+(>+86-;8+"(+.*+">*`"+5+46-+">0110,0"0EE8*8+",;04+"0>>08-;,*-N">+8"56"
E8;--*/05-;86"+"56"4*-*/05-;86"*,"5;07A*">8+/+.+,-+(+,-+",0,"*.0,+*"+">+8"5+"468*+-N"+"5+"/05-;8+"/A+"8*/A*+_
.0,0">*`"/6508+"GL*ul"46,"+-"65%H"!9!9m"U1/A055"+-"65%H"!9!$m"U1/A055"x"W768-+8"X*75H"!9!$J%"P,"E8;--*/05-;86"
5Q6;(+,-0".+556"-+(>+86-;86H".+55+"7*08,6-+"/65.+"+".+55+"08+".*"105+">;h"/0(>08-68+";,6",0-+405+".*(*_
,;O*0,+".+556"R;65*-N"G1/0--6-;8+"10568*J"GL*ul"46,"+-"65%H"!9!9J%"b6"-+(>+86-;86"(*-+".*"68*6"+"-+88+,0"*,"
>8*(64+86">;h"*,-+880(>+8+"56".08(*+,O6"*,4+8,65+"+"E6408*8+";,0"14*5;>>0">8+/0/+H"/A+"6;(+,-6"*5""
8*1/A*0".*".6,,*".6"7+56-+"-68.*4+H"6//+5+86"50"14*5;>>0".+*"E8;--*"+"*,E5;*1/+"1;556");//*6"G8;77*,01*-NJH"1;556"
E08(6".+*"E8;--*"+"1;556"/0(>6--+OO6".+556">05>6"G/0,1+846)*5*-NJ%"3,6"(6-;86O*0,+">*`"86>*.6"*,"
+1-6-+I6;-;,,0">;h"*,E5;*8+"1;"/05086O*0,+H"/0,-+,;-0".*"O;//A+8*H"6/*.*-N"+".+786.6O*0,+".+556">05>6H"
8*.;/+,.0"/01d"56"/0,1+846)*5*-N".+*"E8;--*"GF-6*,+8H"!9&&J%"b+"-+(>+86-;8+"*,"6;(+,-0"*,-+,1*E*/6,0"5Q+46_
>0-861>*86O*0,+"+"6;(+,-6,0"*5"8*1/A*0".*"1-8+11".6"1*//*-N%"P,">68-*/0568+H"5+"468*+-N".*"E8;--6"/0,"86.*/*"
>0/0">80E0,.+"G6."+1%"(+5+"+"(*8-*55*J"10,0">*`"4;5,+86)*5*"8*1>+--0"655+">*6,-+"/0,"86.*/*">80E0,.+"/0(+"
56"4*-+"GL*ul"46,"+-"65%H"!9!9J%"',/A+"*,"4*-*/05-;86"*5">80/+110".*"(6-;86O*0,+"+"*5"86>>08-0"-86"/0,-+,;-0"
.*"O;//A+8*"+".+786.6O*0,+".+75*"6/*.*"G16>08+"+"/0,-+,;-0"65/05*/0J"10,0".+-+8(*,6,-*"6*"E*,*".+556"R;6_
5*-N".+5">80.0--0"E*,65+"GF/A(*.H"!9&BJ%"b6"(6,/6,O6".Q6/R;6"+"50"1-8+11"-+8(*/0">0110,0"/0(>80(+-_
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Potenziale situazione futura
P,"E;-;80"[">8+4*1-0"5Q6;(+,-0".+*"E+,0(+,*"(+-+080507*/*"+1-8+(*"+";,"/6()*6(+,-0".+55+"/0,.*O*0,*"
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Potenziale di adattamento
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Cause dei rischi
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O*0,+H".*"86//05-6"+"1;*">80/+11*".*"14*5;>>0H"8+,.+,.0"1+(>8+">*`",+/+1168*0"*5"8*/0810"6";,Q*88*76O*0,+"
1;>>5+(+,-68+%"b0"1-8+11".6"/6508+">;h".+-+8(*,68+";,"/650".*"/8+1/*-6H"/6.;-6".+*"E*08*"+"(6,/6,O6"
.Q6/R;6%"b+"E08-*">8+/*>*-6O*0,*"6//8+1/0,0"*5"8*1/A*0".*"5*1/*4*6O*0,+".+*",;-8*+,-*"+."+801*0,+".+5"1;050"
.;86,-+"*">+8*0.*".*"1/6816"4+7+-6O*0,+"+".0>0"E61*">805;,76-+".*"1*//*-N"GM'<3H"!9&#J%"V5*"+4+,-*"6-(0_
1E+8*/*"+1-8+(*">0110,0"6,/A+".6,,+77*68+"0".*1-8;77+8+"*".*1>01*-*4*".*">80-+O*0,+"G4+55*H"8+-*H"-;,,+5".*"
655;(*,*0J%"P"-*>*">*`"80);1-*H"/0(+"*5"/6405E*08+H"10,0"(+,0"1;1/+--*)*5*"8*1>+--0"675*"08-677*".6"E8;--0""
G>0(0.080H"(+56,O6,6J%"P"/+8+65*"8*1/A*6,0".*"+11+8+"6))6--;-*"6"-+886"10>86--;--0">0/0">8*(6".+556"(*+_
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Situazione attuale
'--;65(+,-+"*"1+(*,6-*4*"*,"'5-0"'.*7+H"/0(>8+1*"*">86-*".6"E08677*0H"5+"1;>+8E*/*".+1-*,6-+"6"(6*1".6"E0_
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T*1>+--0"65"!9&9H"R;+1-0"1+--08+"A6"8+7*1-86-0";,"6;(+,-0".*"/*8/6"*5"?H?"q"G'FU'UH"!9!9J"10>86--;--0H"
1+/0,.0"75*"1-;.*01*H">+8"R;6,-0"8*7;68.6"5+"1;>+8E*/*"E08677+8+"644*/+,.6-+"*,"O0,+"(687*,65*"+"*5"(*75*0_
86(+,-0".+556"1+5+O*0,+".*"468*+-N"/0,"8+1+"10..*1E6/+,-*%"b6"/05-*46O*0,+".*"/+8+65*"+"08-677*".6"/6(>0"["
6;(+,-6-6"5+77+8(+,-+",+75*";5-*(*"6,,*%"P,"'5-0"'.*7+"10,0".;+"5+"1-8;--;8+">8*,/*>65*"/A+"/686--+8*O_
O6,0"56"/05-*46O*0,+".*"08-677*D"5+"6O*+,.+"678*/05+".*"786,.*".*(+,1*0,*H"1>+/*65*OO6-+"*,">0/A+"/05-;8+H"
/A+"86>>8+1+,-6,0"56"R;0-6"(677*08+"*,"-+8(*,*".*"1;>+8E*/*+"+"10,0">+8"50">*`"0876,*OO6-+"*,"/00>+86_
-*4+H"+";,6"R;0-6"(*,08+H"/01-*-;*-6".6"6O*+,.+"678*/05+"1>+/*65*OO6-+",+556"/0((+8/*65*OO6O*0,+".*8+--6H"
1>+110"/0,"(677*08+"468*+-N".*"/05-;8+%"F+/0,.0"*"8*1;5-6-*"1/*+,-*E*/*H"R;+1-0"1+--08+"*,"'5-0"'.*7+")+,+E*_
/*6".*"-+(>+86-;8+">*`"+5+46-+H"/A+"0EE80,0"56">011*)*5*-N".*"/05-*468+"65-8+"1>+/*65*-NH"+8)+"680(6-*/A+H"
+//%"6,/A+"*,"O0,+"(687*,65*%"
'--;65(+,-+"*"1+(*,6-*4*",0,",+/+11*-6,0".*"*88*76O*0,+"0"1050"0//61*0,65(+,-+"(+,-8+"75*"08-677*"8*/A*+_
.0,0"*88*76O*0,+"6"1+/0,.6".+5"-*>0".*"/05-;86%"V5*"+1>+8-*"65-06-+1*,*"8*-+,70,0"/A+"*5"/65.0"+1-8+(0"+"*"
5;,7A*">+8*0.*".*"1*//*-N"86>>8+1+,-*,0"56"1E*.6"(677*08+">+8"1+(*,6-*4*"+"08-677*H"10>86--;--0"*,"8+7*0,*"
/0(+"56"X65"X+,01-6"+"56"O0,6".*"M05O6,0%"'">80-+O*0,+".6550"1-8+11".6"/6508+H"65/;,+"1+88+"10,0"1-6-+"
:B"
"
0()8+77*6-+%"b+"E08677+8+",0,"10,0"7+,+865(+,-+"*88*76-+H"-;--64*6">805;,76-*">+8*0.*".*"1*//*-N"(+-_
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GS6*8A0E+8"x"<*75H"!9!#J%"\+556"/05-*46O*0,+".+556">6-6-6H"*"/6()*6(+,-*".+*"(0.+55*"/5*(6-*/*"A6,,0"/0(_
>80(+110"56"1+(*,6H"56"/8+1/*-6"+H"*,"65/;,*"/61*H"6;(+,-6-0"5Q*,E+1-6O*0,+".6"(*/+-*%"\0,"10,0"E*,086"
1-6-*"8*5+46-*">+8h".*E+--*".*"R;65*-N"0"1*7,*E*/6-*4+">+8.*-+".*"8+16%"\+5"/610".+*"/+8+65*H"56"R;65*-N">;h"8*1;5_
-68+"1+8*6(+,-+"/0(>80(+116">+8".6,,*".04;-*"6."6))6--*(+,-0"G4+,-0"+"E08-*">*077+J"+".+E08(*-N"GE08-*"
>*077+">8*(6"+".;86,-+"*5"86//05-0J%"<08-*"-+(>0865*"A6,,0">8040/6-0"*5"804+1/*6(+,-0".+55+"1+88+",+556"
O0,6".*"M05O6,0%"P1056-+"786,.*,6-+"A6,,0".6,,+77*6-0"7864+(+,-+"5+"/05-;8+H"(6"E*,086",0,"1*"10,0""
4+8*E*/6-*".6,,*"1;"56876"1/656%"F*".+4+"-+,+8+">8+1+,-+"/A+",+556"(677*08">68-+".+55+"68++"4+,70,0"/05-*_
46-+"468*+-N">*`"80);1-+"G6."+1%"*5"/6405E*08+JH"(+,-8+"10,0"+1>01-+"6";,"8*1/A*0".+/*16(+,-+">*`"+5+46-0"
5+"6O*+,.+"/A+"/05-*46,0";,"(677*08",;(+80".*"468*+-N"6,/A+">*`".+5*/6-+"G6."+1%"56--;76H">0(0.08*J%""
'--;65(+,-+",0,"["E6/*5+"-80468+";,Q611*/;86O*0,+"/A+"7686,-*1/6">+8";,Q6(>*6"76((6".*"/05-;8+"56""
>80-+O*0,+".6".6,,*">8040/6-*".6"E+,0(+,*"(+-+0"+1-8+(*H"+"R;+1-0"6"/6;16".+556"/0(>5+11*-N".+55+""
465;-6O*0,*".6"+EE+--;68+"+".+556"/0(>5+11*-N".+55+">86-*/A+");80/86-*/A+"8*/A*+1-+%"b+"-+(>+86-;8+">*`"
/65.+"G.+5"1;050J"6;(+,-6,0"56">805*E+86O*0,+".+*">68611*-*"50/65*H"10>86--;--0".*"R;+55*"7*N")+,",0-*H"/0(+"
56">+80,01>086".+5"/64050H"56">+80,01>086"-68.*46"+"*5"(68/*;(+")8;,0%"
Potenziale situazione futura
'"/6;16".+556"1*//*-NH"1*"8+,.+"1+(>8+">*`"1>+110",+/+1168*0"8*/088+8+"6"*88*76O*0,*"1;>>5+(+,-68*%"X*1-6"56"
8*.0--6".*1>0,*)*5*-N"-+(>0865+".+55Q6/R;6H"5+"6O*+,.+">80.;--8*/*".*"08-677*"1*"1-6,,0"08*+,-6,.0"4+810"
1*1-+(*".*"8*/*/50"+".+>;86O*0,+%"\;-8+,.0"+")67,6,.0"6.+7;6-6(+,-+"5+">*6,-+H"[">011*)*5+"6--;68+"6"
5080"46,-677*0".+55+"(*1;8+".*">80-+O*0,+H"/0(+"56"(6,/6-6"*88*76O*0,+"1+865+H">8+4+,.0"/01d"56"E08(6_
O*0,+".*"(;EE+"+"E;,7A*%"P,"7+,+865+H"*"/6()*6(+,-*"/5*(6-*/*"6;(+,-+86,,0"5Q*,/+8-+OO6"1;*"(0(+,-*"7*;_
1-*">+8"56"1+(*,6"+"*5"86//05-0H"1;550"14*5;>>0"+"5Q*.0,+*-N".+556">01*O*0,+%"L*4+,-6"R;*,.*",+/+1168*0""
677*08,68+"5+"*,E08(6O*0,*"+"*"/0,1*75*">+8"56"/05-*46O*0,+%"V5*"*,4+8,*"(*-*">0110,0"6//+5+868+"50"14*5;>>0"
.+*"/+8+65*"*,4+8,65*"+"64+8+";,"*(>6--0",+76-*40"1;550"14+8,6(+,-0%"\+*">8011*(*"6,,*"[">8+4*1-6"56""
.*(*,;O*0,+".+556"R;6,-*-N".*",+4+I.;86-6".+5"(6,-0",+4010"+"R;+1-0">0-8+))+"64+8+";,"+EE+--0">01*_
-*40"1;55+"(656--*+"E;,7*,+"G6."+1%"56"(;EE6".+55+",+4*J%"P"E+,0(+,*"(+-+080507*/*"+1-8+(*"-+,.+86,,0"6."
6;(+,-68+";5-+8*08(+,-+"+".6,,+77+86,,0"*"86//05-*%"';(+,-+8N"6,/A+"56"/05-*46O*0,+".*",;04+"468*+-N"
*,">01*O*0,*"677*;,-*4+%"
Potenziale di adattamento
T*7;68.0"675*"08-677*"+"6*"1+(*,6-*4*H"6;(+,-+8N"*5"8*/0810"655Q*88*76O*0,+">+8"/05-;8+"*,">01*O*0,*"(687*,65*"
/A+"*,">8+/+.+,O6",0,"4+,*46,0">8+110/Ac"*88*76-+%"X6,,0"8*/+8/6-+",;04+">*6,-+"/A+">0116,0"7686,-*8+"
;,6"8+16".6556"R;65*-N"+5+46-6",0,01-6,-+"*5"/6()*6(+,-0".+55+"/0,.*O*0,*"/5*(6-*/A+H"/0,/+,-86,.01*"
1;556"1+5+O*0,+".*"468*+-NH"1>+/*+"4+7+-65*"+"(*1/+5+".*"1+(+,-*"6.6--+"65"/5*(6"+">*`"8+1*1-+,-*"655+"1E*.+"
5+76-+"65"/6()*6(+,-0"/5*(6-*/0"G/6508+H"1*//*-NH"(656--*+"0"0876,*1(*",0/*4*J%"^"*,05-8+",+/+1168*0"6>8*8+"
,;04*"(+8/6-*".*"4+,.*-6">+8"5+"468*+-N"6.6--6-+"65"/5*(6"+".68+"*,E08(6O*0,*";-*5*"1;556"/05-*46O*0,+%"P5"8*_
1/A*0">;h"+11+8+"(*,*(*OO6-0".*4+81*E*/6,.0"5+"/05-*46O*0,*"+";-*5*OO6,.0"468*+-N"/A+"4+,76,0"1+(*,6-+"+"
(6-;8*,0"*,">+8*0.*".*4+81*%"',-670,*1-*",6-;865*"+"0876,*1(*")+,+E*/*H",0,/Ac"80-6O*0,*"/05-;865*"(0.*E*_
/6-+"G6."+1%">+8"56".*6)80-*/6".+5"(6*1J">0110,0"/0,-861-68+"0"/0,-805568+"5+"*,E+1-6O*0,*".6">68611*-*%"b+"
6O*+,.+"678*/05+"/A+"46,-6,0";,6"786,.+"468*+-N".*"/05-;8+".048+))+80"64+8+";,"6//+110"E6/*5*-6-0"6";,6"
/0>+8-;86"611*/;86-*46%"@+8"8*>8*1-*,68+"56"165;-+".+5"-+88+,0"10,0"E0,.6(+,-65*"(*1;8+"+"1-86-+7*+"*,-+1+"
6550"14*5;>>0"101-+,*)*5+H"655Q688*//A*(+,-0"+"6556"1-6)*5*OO6O*0,+".+55+"8*1081+".+5"1;050H"6,/A+"*,"/0,1*.+_
86O*0,+".+5"(677*08+"*((676OO*,6(+,-0".*"6/R;6",+5"1;050%"3,6"(*1;86".6"6.0--68+">+8"8*.;88+"5+"+(*1_
1*0,*"+"688*//A*8+",6-;865(+,-+"*5"1;050".*"6O0-0H"1+,O6"8*/088+8+"6"E+8-*5*OO6,-*"(*,+865*H"/0,1*1-+",+5""
>80(;04+8+"56"/05-*46O*0,+".*"5+7;(*,01+%"F*"1-6"*,05-8+"1-;.*6,.0"*5">0-+,O*65+".*"564086O*0,+".+*""
5+7;(*H"/A+">0-8+))+"/0,-8*);*8+"6556".*4+81*E*/6O*0,+".+55+"/05-;8+">+8"10..*1E68+"56"/8+1/+,-+".0(6,.6"
.*">80-+*,+"4+7+-65*%"L*"E0,.6(+,-65+"*(>08-6,O6"10,0"*5"-861E+8*(+,-0".+55+"/0,01/+,O+"+"5Q677*08,6_
(+,-0">80E+11*0,65+H"(6"0//088+"6,/A+"+1/07*-68+",;04*"(+-0.*".*"7+1-*0,+">*`"E;,O*0,65*"+"/0556;.6-*"
>+8"5+"6O*+,.+%"b6"E08(6O*0,+",+75*"*1-*-;-*";,*4+81*-68*">80E+11*0,65*"+",+55+";,*4+81*-N".+4+"+11+8+""
(677*08(+,-+"E0/65*OO6-6"1;*">011*)*5*"/6()*6(+,-*"/5*(6-*/*"+"1;55Q6.6--6(+,-0"65"/5*(6H"*,"(0.0".6"
1+,1*)*5*OO68+"*"7*046,*"1;"R;+1-+"1E*.+%"
"
:2"
"
Sommario – Rischi principali
a T*1/A*0".*">+8.*-6".+*"86//05-*".*"E08677*0",+55+"68++">86-*4+"6"/6;16".*"+4+,-*"(+-+080507*/*"
+1-8+(*H"6;(+,-0".+55+"-+(>+86-;8+"+"1*//*-N%"
a T*1/A*0".*"1-8+11".6"/6508+",+75*"655+46(+,-*"+"/65*".*"8+16",+5"1+--08+"56--*+80_/61+68*0"6"/6;16"
.+55Q6;(+,-0".+55+"-+(>+86-;8+%"
a T*1/A*0".*",0,"7686,-*8+"*5"86//05-0"+".*".*(*,;O*0,+".+556"R;65*-N".+55+"/05-;8+">+8(6,+,-*"6"
/6;16".+*"/6()*6(+,-*"/5*(6-*/*"+".+*"E+,0(+,*"(+-+080507*/*"+1-8+(*"G-+(>+86-;8+">*`""
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1-01+%"
a T*1/A*0".*"6;(+,-0".+556">8+1+,O6".*">6-07+,*"/0,105*.6-*"+".*".*EE;1*0,+".*"0876,*1(*",0/*4*"
*,461*4*"+".*"/6()*6(+,-*",+556")*0507*6".+75*"0876,*1(*",0/*4*".04;-*"6"468*6O*0,*".+55+""
/0,.*O*0,*"/5*(6-*/A+%"
a T*1/A*0".*".*(*,;O*0,+".+*"86//05-*H".*"8*.;O*0,+".+556"R;65*-N"+"1-6)*5*-N".+55+"/05-;8+",+*""
1+(*,6-*4*"+",+75*"08-677*"6"/6;16".+5"/6()*6(+,-0".+55+"/0,.*O*0,*"/5*(6-*/A+%"
a T*1/A*0".*"6;(+,-0".+*"/01-*".*">80.;O*0,+"6"/6;16".+55+"(*1;8+".*">80-+O*0,+"6--*46"+".+75*"
6.+7;6(+,-*".04;-*"6*"/6()*6(+,-*"/5*(6-*/*%"
"
"
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– Tscholl, S., Candiago, S., Marsoner, T., Fraga, H., Giupponi, C., Egarter Vigl, L., 2024. Climate resilience of European wine re-
gions. Nat. Commun. 15, 6254. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-024-50549-w
– Tscholl, S., Egarter Vigl, L., 2024. The changing geography of wine climates and its implications on adaptation in the Italian
Alps. Clim. Resil. Sustain. 3, e70000. https://doi.org/10.1002/cli2.70000
– Versuchszentrum Laimburg, 2024. Beginn der Vollblüte des Apfels - Climate Change Monitoring South Tyrol [WWW Docu-
ment]. EURAC Res. URL https://www.eurac.edu/de/data-in-action/klimawandel-monitoring/beginn-der-vollbluete-des-apfels
(accessed 7.17.24).
– Weigel, H.-J., 2011. Klimawandel – Auswirkungen und Anpassungsmöglichkeiten. In G.Rahmann & Schumacher, Ulrich
(Hrsg.), Praxis trifft Forschung Neues aus dem Ökologischen Ackerbau und der Ökologischen Tierhaltung 2011. Braun-
schweig: vTI [WWW Document]. URL https://literatur.thuenen.de/digbib_extern/dn049422.pdf (accessed 3.22.24).
– WIFO, 2021. Economy in Figure - Die Stüdtiroler Wirtschaft - aktuelle Daten, Indikatoren und Entwicklung.
– Zebisch, M., Vaccaro, R., Niedrist, G., Schneiderbauer, S., Streifeneder, T., WeiГџ, M.L., Troi, A., Renner, K., Pedoth, L., Baum-
gartner, B., Bergonzi, V., 2018. Rapporto sul clima 2017: Eurac Research, Bolzano.
– Zoller, H., Bischof, N., 1980. Stufen der Kulturintensitaät und ihr Einfluss aus Artenzahl und Artengefüge der Vegetation. Ba-
sel.
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"
4.4
Gestione forestale
Autori: Christian Hoffmann, Felix Thaler, Nikolaus Obojes
"
"
Figura 18: Catena degli impatti che illustra i pericoli, l'esposizione e la vulnerabilità del settore forestale
Introduzione
bQ'5-0"'.*7+"["*,"786,">68-+"/0>+8-0".6"E08+1-+"G';-0,0(+"@804*,O"M0O+,H"!9!#6J"*,"/;*">8+.0(*,6H">8*,_
/*>65(+,-+H"5Q6)+-+"80110%"b6"(677*08">68-+".+*")01/A*"[".*">80>8*+-N">8*46-6H"(6"(05-*">80>8*+-68*"7+1-*_
1/0,0"(+,0".*"/*,R;+"+--68*"G';-0,0(+"@804*,O"M0O+,H"!9!#)J%"k5-8+"/A+"+11+8+"1E8;--6-+".6";,">;,-0".*"
4*1-6"+/0,0(*/0H"5+"E08+1-+"140570,0"*(>08-6,-*"E;,O*0,*">+8"*5")+,+"/0(;,+H"56"/0,1+846O*0,+".+556")*0_
.*4+81*-NH"56".+>;86O*0,+".+55Q6/R;6"+".+55Q68*6"+"56"/8+6O*0,+".*"1>6O*">+8"4*4+8+"6"/0,-6--0"/0,"56",6-;86%"
b6"E;,O*0,+">80-+--*46".+55+"E08+1-+"[">68-*/0568(+,-+"*(>08-6,-+">+8"56"10/*+-N%"V86O*+"655+"/0,.*O*0,*"
-0>0786E*/A+H"*,"'5-0"'.*7+"*")01/A*".*">80-+O*0,+"10,0"*5":B"q"G';-0,0(+"@804*,O"M0O+,H"!9!#)J".+5""
-+88*-08*0"+">80-+770,0"+.*E*/*"+"*,E861-8;--;8+".6">+8*/05*",6-;865*"/0(+"4656,7A+H"/6.;-6"(611*"+"E86,+%"
@0*/Ac"5+"E08+1-+"1+R;+1-86,0"56"(677*08"R;6,-*-N".*"Ck2".*"-;--*"75*"+/01*1-+(*"-+88+1-8*H"140570,0";,"
8;050"*(>08-6,-+",+556"50--6"65"/6()*6(+,-0"/5*(6-*/0%"F+))+,+"75*"+/01*1-+(*"E08+1-65*"1;)*1/6,0""
1+(>8+">*`".6,,*")*0-*/*"+"6)*0-*/*"6"/6;16".+*"/6()*6(+,-*"/5*(6-*/*H">+8">80-+77+8+"*5"/5*(6"["E6--0"
786,.+"6EE*.6(+,-0"1;556"/6>6/*-N".*"61108)*(+,-0".+55+",01-8+"E08+1-+%"
Esterno: ad esempio il calo
dei prezzi del legname dopo i
grandi eventi dannosi, anche
al di fuori dell'Alto Adige.
Aumento degli stress
biotici (parassiti) a causa
delle temperature più
elevate e degli stress
abiotici
Legame con i rischi climatici: Biodiversità, gestione delle acque, energia (biomassa),
turismo, insediamenti, salute, economia.
Biodiversità e condizioni delle foreste
Gestione forestale
Scomparsa o
spostamento
spaziale delle
specie arboree in
altitudine.
Riduzione della
funzione di
stoccaggio dell'acqua
e della sua qualità
Danni alle
foreste dovuti a
eventi meteoro-
logici estremi
più frequenti e
più intensi
Riduzione della
funzione protettiva
del suolo e delle
strutture a causa dei
danni alle foreste
Danneggiamento
e scomparsa di
vaste aree
forestali a causa di
parassiti/malattie/
calo di vitalità
Incendi boschivi:
distruzione di
vaste aree/
emissioni di
carbonio
Mancanza di
formazione,
conoscenza e
confronto
Tipi di bosco poco adattati
al clima e sporadicamente
poco naturali
Alta densità della fauna selvatica
Struttura forestale:
alta suscettibilità a
rotture da neve e
danni da tempesta
Mancanza di
organizzazione dei
proprietari forestali
Scarsa disponibilità e risorse per una
gestione forestale sostenibile da parte dei
proprietari di foreste private
Mancanza di adattamento al clima,
gestione inadeguata dei danni forestali
legati al clima
Tem-
peste
Neve
bagnata
Aumento dei
periodi di siccità
Aumento delle tempera-
ture e del calore
Funzione di stoccag-
gio del carbonio
Funzione protettiva del
suolo e delle strutture
Funzione di
stoccaggio dellʼacqua
Piogge
intense
Aumento degli
incendi boschivi
Decompo-
sizione
dellʼhumus
Aumento dei danni abiotici alle
foreste a causa di tempeste,
siccità e neve bagnata
Erosione dello
strato
superciale
del suolo su
aree
danneggiate
Dicoltà di
rimboschi-
mento di
ampie aree
danneggiate
Riduzione dell'oerta di
legname di alta qualità
(legname da costruzione)
Perdita di attrattività del
paesaggio, degrado degli
habitat forestali
Pericoli legati al clima
Impatti climatici
Sistemi esposti
Vulnerabilità, fattori di rischio non climatici
Rischio principale con necessità di intervento
urgente alto medio
?!"
"
!"!"#
I6))'+6&'.4-'+++
Cause dei rischi
b+"/0,.*O*0,*"*,"/;*"4+816";,")01/0".+-+8(*,6,0"56"1;6"1;1/+--*)*5*-N"6*".6,,*".6"-+(>+1-6%"3,">686(+-80"
*(>08-6,-+"/A+"6//8+1/+"1*7,*E*/6-*46(+,-+"*5"8*1/A*0".*"/6.;-6">+8"*5"4+,-0H"10>86--;--0",+*">0>056(+,-*"
(0,01-86-*E*/6-*"+"*,"611+,O6".*";,"(687*,+"E08+1-65+">80-+--*40H"[";,"86>>08-0"-86"65-+OO6"+".*6(+-80".+_
75*"65)+8*">68*"6"B9"0"(+,0%"b+"-+(>+86-;8+">*`"(*-*"*,"*,4+8,0"*,E5;*1/0,0"1;556"/0(>01*O*0,+".+556",+4+"
+">0110,0"7+,+868+";,6",+4+">+16,-+"+";(*.6H"/A+"1*"6--6//6"675*"67A*"+"655+"/A*0(+".+55+"56-*E075*+""
6>>+,6"7+8(075*6-+"+">;h">08-68+"6556"80--;86".+*"86(*".+75*"65)+8*"6"/A*0(6"56876"*,"/;*"*5"86>>08-0""
65-+OO6I.*6(+-80"1*6"1E6408+405+%"'".*EE+8+,O6".+*".6,,*"/6;16-*".655+"-+(>+1-+H"56"80--;86".+*"86(*">+8"56"
,+4+"1*"4+8*E*/6"50/65(+,-+"+"1;">*//056"1/656"+"8+,.+"(+,0"67+405+"56"564086O*0,+".+5"5+7,0".6,,+7_
7*6-0%"
Situazione attuale
',/A+"56"7+1-*0,+"E08+1-65+"65-06-+1*,6"["1-6-6"/05>*-6".6";,6"/8*1*"1+,O6">8+/+.+,-*"6"/6;16".+5"86>*.0"
1;11+7;*81*".*"E+,0(+,*".6,,01*%"U;--0"A6"64;-0"*,*O*0"/0,"56"-+(>+1-6"fX6*6g".+5"!9&BH"/A+"A6"6))6--;-0"
/*8/6"?%999"+--68*".*"E08+1-6H"7+,+86,.0"R;61*"&H:"(*5*0,*".*"(+-8*"/;)*".*"5+7,6H"044+80"5Q&HK"q".+556""
1;>+8E*/*+"E08+1-65+"-0-65+".+55Q'5-0"'.*7+%"b6"R;6,-*-N".*"5+7,6(+".6,,+77*6-0"A6"1;>+86-0".*"R;61*""
-8+"405-+"*5",08(65+"-6110".*"6))6--*(+,-0"6,,;65+"G\*+.8*1-"+-"65%H"!9!!J%"'"/*h"1*"10,0"677*;,-*",+75*"6,,*"
1;//+11*4*"*".6,,*"/6;16-*".6556">8+11*0,+".+556",+4+"6"1+7;*-0".*"+4+,-*",+401*";(*.*H"10>86--;--0"*,"X65"
@;1-+8*6"G';-0,0(+"@804*,O"M0O+,H"!9!#6J%"';(+,-6,.0"*"405;(*".*"5+7,6(+".6,,+77*6-0"1;5"(+8/6-0H"
6,/A+"*">8+OO*".+5"5+7,6(+"80-0,.0"10,0"1/+1*"1*7,*E*/6-*46(+,-+%"b6"1/6816"8+..*-*4*-NH"75*"+1*7;*"(687*,*"
>01*-*4*".*"/0,-8*);O*0,+"+"56"/8+1/+,-+">+8/+,-;65+".*">80>8*+-68*"/A+"1*"-+,70,0"50,-6,*".6*")01/A*""
>0-8+))+80"1>*,7+8+"R;+1-*";5-*(*"6."6))6,.0,685*H"6",0,"5640868+">*`"*5"5+7,6(+".6,,+77*6-0"+"E081+"
,+((+,0">*`"6"1+84*81+,+">+8"*",08(65*";-*5*OO*H"/0,";,"*(>6--0",+76-*40"1;55Q+-*/6"E08+1-65+"+"1;556"8+_
1>0,16)*5*-N".*"7+1-*0,+"101-+,*)*5+".+55+"E08+1-+%"k5-8+"6556"/8+1/+,-+"E8+R;+,O6".*"-+(>+1-+"+",+4*/6-+H"
6,/A+"56"(6,/6,O6".*">8+/*>*-6O*0,*"A6"7864*"/0,1+7;+,O+">+8"56"E08+1-6">+8/Ac"56"/68+,O6".Q6/R;6"+"56"
1*//*-N"*,.+)05*1/0,0"75*"65)+8*"+">8040/6,0".6,,*".6"1*//*-NH"/A+"1*"(6,*E+1-6,0"R;6,.0"*5".6,,+77*6_
(+,-0"["/01d"7864+".6"6110--*75*68+"5+"/A*0(+".+75*"65)+8*H"E68+"6>>611*8+"E075*+"+"67A*"+"688+1-68+"56""
/8+1/*-6%"
Potenziale situazione futura
bQ+/01*1-+(6".+55+"E08+1-+"+"*5"1;0">0-+,O*65+".*"1-0//677*0".+5"/68)0,*0"140570,0";,"8;050"/+,-865+",+556"
>80-+O*0,+".+5"/5*(6H"(6"R;+1-0"["8+65*1-*/6(+,-+">011*)*5+"1050"1+"5+"E08+1-+"4+,70,0"(+11+",+55+""
/0,.*O*0,*H"6--864+810"*,-+84+,-*".*";-*5*OO0"101-+,*)*5+")616-*"1;";,"/0,/+--0".*".*1-8*);O*0,+"1-8;--;865+"+"
.*"+-N"/A+"8+,.6"75*"65)+8*">*`"8+1*1-+,-*"6"+4+,-;65*"E+,0(+,*".6,,01*H".*".*4+,-68+";,"(0.+550">+8(6_
,+,-+%"F+))+,+"50"1-6-0"6--;65+".+55+"/0,01/+,O+"1;*"8*1/A*"/5*(6-*/*">+8"5+"E08+1-+".+55QW;80>6"/+,-865+"+"
0//*.+,-65+"1*6"6,/086"(05-0"/0,E;10H"["(05-0">80)6)*5+"/A+"*,"E;-;80"6;(+,-*,0"*".6,,*"655+"E08+1-+""
.04;-*"65"/5*(6"G',.+8+77"+-"65%H"!9!!JH"E081+"6"/6;16".*".*(*,;O*0,+".+5"/68)0,*0"*((676OO*,6-0"+"6";,"
/6()*6(+,-0".+55+"1>+/*+"/A+"077*"/686--+8*OO6,0"5+"E08+1-+"GS+--+H"M86,.5"x"{‚55*,7H"!9!&J%"
Potenziale di adattamento
T+70568*"*,-+84+,-*"1+54*/05-;865*"+".*"(6,;-+,O*0,+".*4+,-6,0"R;*,.*"E0,.6(+,-65*">+8"56"1-6)*5*-N".+556"
1-8;--;86".+5">6-8*(0,*0")01/A*40%"b6"/8+6O*0,+".*">0>056(+,-*"(*1-*"6"1-8;--;86"4+8-*/65+">;h"8*.;88+"*5"
8*1/A*0".*".6,,*"G4;5,+86)*5*-NJ"+"(*75*0868+"5Q6.6--6)*5*-N"G8+1*5*+,O6J"655+"(;-+405*"/0,.*O*0,*"/5*(6-*/A+%"
C0,-*,;6,0">+8h"6"1;11*1-+8+"8*1/A*"8+1*.;*".04;-*"6"/0,.*O*0,*"(+-+080507*/A+"+1-8+(+"+"6"/656(*-N""
,6-;865*D"+11+,.0"*")01/A*"1;..*4*1*"-86"-6,-*">*//05*">80>8*+-68*"+",0,"+11+,.0"*,">68-+"46508*OO6-*H"5Q6--;6_
O*0,+".*"(*1;8+".*"-86--6(+,-0"6.+7;6-+">;h"+11+8+".*EE*/05-016%"',/A+"75*"65)+8*".6"1+(+"*.+,-*E*/6-*"
/0(+">0>056(+,-*"(+,0"8+/+,-*"6.6--*"65"1*-0",0,"10,0"+1+,-*".6"/656(*-N%"@+8"7686,-*8+";,6"R;6,-*-N"
1;EE*/*+,-+".*"1+(+,-*">+8"+4+,-;65*"(*1;8+".*"8*()01/A*(+,-0H"["/0,1*75*6-0".*4+81*E*/68+"(677*08(+,-+"
*">0>056(+,-*".*"65)+8*".6"1+(+%"@;8"+11+,.0"1-6-6"E6--6"(677*08"/A*68+OO6"1;55+"1>+/*+"68)08++"/A+"1*"
6.6--+86,,0".*">*`"6*"/6()*6(+,-*"/5*(6-*/*H">+8(6,+"*5"8*1/A*0"/A+"*5"5080">0-+,O*65+",0,"4+,76"1E8;--6-0"
>+8"R;+1-*0,*"+/0,0(*/A+H";,"+8808+".*"465;-6O*0,+"/A+"648+))+";,"*(>6--0",+76-*40"1;556".*4+81*-N".+55+"
?#"
"
E08+1-+"+"1;55+"5080"E;,O*0,*%"@+8"R;+1-6"867*0,+")*107,6"*,E08(68+"-;--*"*">80>8*+-68*".*")01/A*"1;55+".*,6_
(*/A+".+5"/6()*6(+,-0"/5*(6-*/0"+"1+,1*)*5*OO685*"655+"1E*.+%"@+8"8+,.+8+"(*,*(*"75*"+EE+--*",+76-*4*"1;55+"
(*1;8+".*"8*()01/A*(+,-0"+".*"/0,4+81*0,+".+55+"E08+1-+H"["65-8+--6,-0"*(>08-6,-+"/0*,4057+8+"*"/6//*6_
-08*",+556"8+7056(+,-6O*0,+".+556"1+54677*,6H"/01d"/0(+"["*(>08-6,-+"+.;/68+"-;--*"75*"65-8*"6--08*"*,-+8_
1+--08*65*"G-;8*1(0H"8*/8+6O*0,+H"678*/05-;86H">80-+O*0,+".+55Q6()*+,-+H"+//%J"*,"(0.0"/A+">0116,0""
465;-68+"65"(+75*0"5+"/0,1+7;+,O+".+55+"5080"6O*0,*"1;55+".*,6(*/A+".+55Q+/01*1-+(6"E08+1-65+%"C0,"*5".+_
/5*,0".+556"/;5-;86".+556"7+1-*0,+"E08+1-65+"G(6,/6,O6".*"/0,16>+405+OO6"E08+1-65+JH"["*,"/8+1/*-6"*5""
,;(+80".*">80>8*+-68*"f,0,"E08+1-65*g"+"R;*,.*"/656";5-+8*08(+,-+"56"8+1>0,16)*5*-N">+8"*"-+88+,*"E08+1-65*%"
@+8"8*;1/*8+"6"E80,-+77*68+"R;+1-+"1E*.+H"*"8+R;*1*-*");80/86-*/*"7*;8*.*/6(+,-+"4*,/056,-*".+40,0">8+4+_
.+8+"+//+O*0,*">+8"*">*//05*">80>8*+-68*".*")01/A*H"(6"5+"6;-08*-N"E08+1-65*"50/65*"+"8+7*0,65*"1>+110",0,"
10,0"/0,16>+405*".+55Q*(>08-6,O6".*">0-+8"/0,-8*);*8+"/0,"56"5080"+1>+8*+,O6"+"/0(>+-+,O6"65">80/+110"
.*">68-+/*>6O*0,+"+;80>+6">+8"50"14*5;>>0".+*"8+7056(+,-*"E08+1-65*".+55Q3WH"*,"(0.0".6"/0,-861-68+"56"
(6,/6,O6".*"/0(>8+,1*0,+"R;6,.0"["R;+1-*0,+".*"6--;68+",+556">86-*/6"5+",08(+%"
"
!"!"0
J'.,'2(8/'*K+(+4='+,'+B.8(/*(+')+%.2'%()*.+++
Cause dei rischi
P5"/8+1/+,-+"8*1/65.6(+,-0"750)65+"1-6"+1+8/*-6,.0";,6">8+11*0,+"1;55+"1>+/*+"68)08++"6;-0/-0,+H""
/01-8*,7+,.05+"6."6.6--681*"655+"(;-6-+"/0,.*O*0,*"6()*+,-65*"+"*,"'5-0"'.*7+"R;+1-0">0-8+))+">08-68+"6"
;,0"1>01-6(+,-0".+556"/01-+556O*0,+".+55+"1>+/*+"68)08++"+".+556"5080".*1-8*);O*0,+"4+810"5+"O0,+">*`""
+5+46-+H">0*/Ac"5+"1*,705+"1>+/*+"8+67*1/0,0"*,"(0.0".*4+810"6*"/6()*6(+,-*"/5*(6-*/*%"b+"1>+/*+"68)08++"
.+55+"R;0-+"/055*,68*">*`")611+"(*78+86,,0"4+810"5Q65-0",+5">80E*50"65-*-;.*,65+H"6,.6,.0"6"101-*-;*8+"5+"
1>+/*+".*"/0,*E+8+">*`"/0(>6-*)*5*"/0,"*5"E8+..0H"/A+"1*"8*-*8+86,,0"6."65-*-;.*,*"6,/086">*`"+5+46-+"0"1/0(_
>68*86,,0%"b6"4+50/*-N".*"6.6--6(+,-0".+55+"1>+/*+"[">+8h"5*(*-6-6"+"5Q6--;65+"4+50/*-N".*"/6()*6(+,-0"
/5*(6-*/0",0,"["/088*1>0,.+,-+"6556"4+50/*-N".*"6.6--6(+,-0"+/0507*/0".+75*"+/01*1-+(*%"P,1*+(+"6556""
1*-;6O*0,+".*"1-8+11"6"/;*"10,0"10--0>01-+"1*,705+"1>+/*+"68)08++"/A+"10,0"7*N"65"5*(*-+".+556"5080"6(_
>*+OO6"+/0507*/6H"1*"1-6,,0"/8+6,.0"5+"/0,.*O*0,*"0--*(65*">+8"56"(05-*>5*/6O*0,+"+1>0,+,O*65+".*"*,1+--*"
.6,,01*"/0(+"*"/05+0--+8*".+556"/08-+//*6H"*"/;8/;5*0,*.*H"*"(677*05*,*H"5+"E65+,+">80/+11*0,68*+"0"*")0()*/*"
.*1>68*H",0,/Ac"56"(0,6/A+556"+"56"-*7,056".+5"7+50%"b+"/656(*-N">8040/6-+".675*"*,1+--*">0110,0".+-+8(*_
,68+"56"1/0(>6816".*"*,-+8*">0>056(+,-*"E08+1-65*%"
Situazione attuale
P5"10--01*1-+(6"<08+1-6",+5"/6>*-050"fM*0.*4+81*-Ng"E08,*1/+"*,E08(6O*0,*".+--675*6-+"1;556")*0.*4+81*-N"
.+55+"E08+1-+"65-06-+1*,+%"\0,01-6,-+"5Q+5+46-6">+8/+,-;65+".*"E08+1-+H">68*"65":9H#"qH"65/;,+"1>+/*+"68)0_
8++"+"-*>0507*+"E08+1-65*"10,0"868+"0"7*N"*,"E61+".*"+1-*,O*0,+H"10>86--;--0",+55+"4655*%"b+">8*,/*>65*"1>+/*+"
68)08++".+55Q'5-0"'.*7+"10,0"5Q6)+-+"80110"G?&"qJH"*5"568*/+"G&2"qJH"*5">*,0")*6,/0"G&9"qJH"*5">*,0"/+()80"G?"
qJ"+"5Q6)+-+"G#"qJ%"b+"56-*E075*+"86>>8+1+,-6,0"*,4+/+"(+,0".+5".;+">+8"/+,-0".+55Q*,-+86"0EE+8-6".*""
5+7,6(+"G';-0,0(+"@804*,O"M0O+,H"!9!#)J%"F*">8+4+.+">+8h"/A+"5Q*(>08-6,O6".+55+"1>+/*+"68)08++".+/*_
.;+"/8+1/6"*,"E;-;80"+"/A+"56".*4+81*-N".+55+"1>+/*+"68)08++"6;(+,-*%"P(>08-6,-*"A0-1>0-">+8"56")*0.*4+8_
1*-N"10,0"5+"E08+1-+"8*>68*65*"+">65;1-8*H"/A+"A6,,0"1;)*-0";,"E08-+"688+-86(+,-0",+*"E0,.*4655+"+"/A+"
1-6,,0"10EE8+,.0">*`"/A+"*,">6116-0"6"/6;16".+*"5;,7A*">+8*0.*".*"1*//*-N"+1-*46"+".+*"/6()*6(+,-*",+*"(0_
.+55*".*">8+/*>*-6O*0,+%"C0,"56"1/0(>6816".+55+"E08+1-+"8*>68*65*H"1-6,,0"1>68+,.0"6,/A+"(05-+"1>+/*+""
6,*(65*"+"4+7+-65*"GP1-*-;-0">+8"5w6()*+,-+"65>*,0H"W;86/"T+1+68/AH"!9!#J%"F+/0,.0"*"(0.+55*".+55QP@CCH";,"
*,/8+(+,-0"-+8(*/0".*"105*"!]C">0-8+))+">8040/68+"56"1/0(>6816">+8">+8.*-6".*"A6)*-6-".*"05-8+"*5"?"q"
.+55+"1>+/*+".*"*,1+--*H".+55QB"q".+55+"1>+/*+".*">*6,-+"+".+5"$q".+55+"1>+/*+".*"4+8-+)86-*"GP@CCH"!9!!J%"
Potenziale situazione futura
F+))+,+"5Q'5-0"'.*7+".*1>0,76"E*,".65"!999".*";,6"(6>>6-;86".+55+"6--;65*"/0(;,*-N"E08+1-65*">0-+,O*65*H"
(6,/6"6,/086";,6">8+4*1*0,+".+--675*6-6"/0,";,6"-*>0507*6"E08+1-65+".*,6(*/6"G'(-".+8"F-+*+8(|8_
l*1/A+,"b6,.+18+7*+8;,7H"!9!!6H"!9!!)JH"/A+"6--;65(+,-+"["*,"E61+".*"+56)086O*0,+">8+110"5QP1-*-;-0">+8"
5Q'()*+,-+"'5>*,0".*"W;86/"T+1+68/A",+55Q6()*-0".+5">807+--0"TWP\<kTCW">+8"1*,705+"8+7*0,*"/0(+"5Q'5-6"
X65"X+,01-6"+"56"X65".QW76%"P,"7+,+865+H"1*">;h"*>0-*OO68+";,";5-+8*08+"1>01-6(+,-0"4+810"5Q65-0".+*">0>0_
56(+,-*"E08+1-65*"+H"6"R;0-+">*`")611+H";,6".*(*,;O*0,+".+55+"/0,*E+8+"6"E6408+".+55+"56-*E075*+%"'"1+/0,.6"
?$"
"
.+5"786.0".*"1>01-6(+,-0H"1*">8+4+.+";,Q;5-+8*08+".*EE;1*0,+".*"1>+/*+"*,461*4+H"/A+">0-8+))+80"/0(>80_
(+--+8+"5+"1>+/*+"68)08++"+"*"-*>*".*"E08+1-6"6;-0/-0,*"0">08-68+"6";,".+/5*,0".+556")*0.*4+81*-N%"
Potenziale di adattamento
b6"-*>*OO6O*0,+".*,6(*/6".+55+"E08+1-+"/0,1+,-+".*"E68+">8+4*1*0,*"1;550"14*5;>>0"+"1;550"1>01-6(+,-0"1>6_
O*65+".+*"-*>*".*"E08+1-6"+"1;5"/088+56-0"/6()*6(+,-0",+556"/0(>01*O*0,+".+55+"1>+/*+"68)08++"*,")61+"675*"
1/+,68*"/5*(6-*/*"+"655+".*,6(*/A+"-+(>0865*%"b6..04+"5Q6.6--6(+,-0",6-;865+",0,">0116"1-68+"65">6110"
.+*"/6()*6(+,-*"/5*(6-*/*H"10,0",+/+1168*+"(*1;8+".*"8*0876,*OO6O*0,+"E08+1-65+"6.6--6-+"65"1*-0H"/A+"
/0(>8+,.0,0"56"7686,O*6".*"08*7*,*"/0(>6-*)*5*"/0,"*5"1*-0H"56">80-+O*0,+".+55+"1>+/*+"(*,6//*6-+H"*5"(*75*0_
86(+,-0".+55QA6)*-6-"6.6--6,.0,+"56"1-8;--;86"+"(+1/056,.0"5+"1>+/*+"68)08++"+"/0,-861-6,.0"5+",+0E*-+%"
@68-+".+556"1-86-+7*6"/0,1*1-+"6,/A+",+5"/0,1+,-*8+"5Q*((*786O*0,+"/0,-80556-6".*"1>+/*+"+10-*/A+H"*,">68-*_
/0568+".*"1>+/*+"68)08++%"
"
!"!"5
;6L.8'+,'+')M:()N6+&'.4-6G')B(/*6N'.)(+,6+=686//'4++
Cause dei rischi
P"E+,0(+,*"(+-+080507*/*"+1-8+(*",0,"*,.+)05*1/0,0"1050"56"E*1*0507*6".+75*"65)+8*H"(6"E6408*1/0,0"6,/A+"
56"/0(>6816".*"*,1+--*",0/*4*"+"56"1;1/+--*)*5*-N"655+"(656--*+"E;,7*,+%"bQ6;(+,-0".+55+"-+(>+86-;8+""
(*75*086">+8h"5+"/0,.*O*0,*".*"4*-6".+75*"*,1+--*"6"16,7;+"/65.0%"P"/*/5*"6//+5+86-*".*"14*5;>>0".+75*"*,1+--*"
6;-0/-0,*"+"*,461*4*"E6408*1/0,0"5Q6;(+,-0"+1>0,+,O*65+".+556">0>056O*0,+"+"*5"1;11+7;*81*".+55+"7+,+86_
O*0,*%"Z;+1-6">805*E+86O*0,+",0,"*,.+)05*1/+"1050"75*"65)+8*">*`".+)05*H"(6"6,/A+"R;+55*"16,*"+H"*,"/61*"
+1-8+(*H"*,E+1-6"6,/A+"65-8+"1>+/*+"68)08++"01>*-*%"bQ*(>011*)*5*-N".*"(04*(+,-0"-*>*/6".+75*"65)+8*"+"*"
/6()*6(+,-*"/5*(6-*/*"-80>>0"86>*.*",+"8+,.0,0"R;61*"*(>011*)*5+"*5"-861E+8*(+,-0"*,"68++">*`"1+--+,-8*0_
,65*%"',/A+"/0,"1/+,68*"/5*(6-*/*"(0.+86-*"GTC@"$%:JH"+,-80"*5"!&99"1*">8+4+.+";,"6;(+,-0"1*7,*E*/6-*40"
.+556"-+(>+86-;86H"/A+"(0.*E*/A+8N",0-+405(+,-+"*5">6+1677*0"E08+1-65+".+55Q'5-0"'.*7+%"F>+/*+"68)08++"
6"E075*6"/6.;/6"(+,0"1+,1*)*5*"65"/6508+"0"1>+/*+"+10-*/A+"1-86,*+8+"6,.86,,0"6"101-*-;*8+H"10>86--;--0"
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,;04*">68611*-*"+"(656--*+%"
Situazione attuale
\+75*";5-*(*"6,,*"*,"'5-0"'.*7+"+"*,"65-8+"O0,+".+55+"'5>*"(+8*.*0,65*"1*"["8+7*1-86-0";,"6;(+,-0".+*""
.6,,+77*6(+,-*".+5"5+7,0"6"/6;16".+5")01-8*/0".+55Q6)+-+"80110"GP>1"-Y>0786>A;1JH"10>86--;--0".0>0""
E+,0(+,*"/0(+"56"-+(>+1-6"X6*6".+5"!9&B"+"56",+4+"/6.;-6",+75*"6,,*"!9&2"+"!9!9%"P,05-8+H"5+"/0,.*O*0,*"
6()*+,-65*"E6408+405*".+5"!9!9"A6,,0"E6408*-0"56">805*E+86O*0,+".+5")01-8*/0H"*,*O*65(+,-+"5*(*-6-0"65""
5+7,0".*1-+10H"(6"/A+"6">68-*8+".6"7*;7,0"!9!&"1*"[".*EE;10"6,/A+"65"5+7,0"*,">*+.*%"P".6,,*"+"8*1/A*"/A+",+"
10,0".+8*46-*"10,0"1-6-*"*,7+,-*">+8"*">0>056(+,-*".*"E08+1-+".*">80-+O*0,+"E08-+(+,-+"*,E+1-6-+%"P,"'5-0"
'.*7+"10,0">8+1+,-*"6,/A+"65-8+"1>+/*+".*")01-8*/0"/0(+"*5"786,.+")01-8*/0".+5"568*/+"GP>1"/+()86+J"+"*5"
)01-8*/0".+5">*,0H"(6"R;+1-+"1*"10,0"(6,*E+1-6-+"1050"50/65(+,-+",+75*";5-*(*"6,,*"G';-0,0(+"@804*,O"
M0O+,H"!9!#6J%"'"/6;16".+5"/5*(6"1+//0"+"/65.0H"56">80/+11*0,68*6".+5">*,0"GUA6;(+-0>0+6">*-Y0/6(>6J"
1*"["8*>+-;-6(+,-+"8*>80.0--6",+75*";5-*(*"6,,*H"10>86--;--0"*,"X65"X+,01-6%"',/A+"1+"5Q*,E+1-6O*0,+".*"
(6116",0,"[".*8+--6(+,-+"E6-65+">+8"75*"65)+8*H"56"4*-65*-N".+*">0>056(+,-*",+"4*+,+"E08-+(+,-+"/0(>80_
(+116"+H"*,"/0()*,6O*0,+"/0,"56"1*//*-NH">68611*-*"1+/0,.68*"0"E;,7A*">;h">8040/68+"56"(08-+".+*">0>056_
(+,-*%"k//088+">8+1-68+"6--+,O*0,+"6*">+5*";8-*/6,-*".+55+"5684+H"/A+">0110,0"/6;168+">80)5+(*">+8"56""
165;-+";(6,6"+"6,*(65+%"
"
P"E;,7A*".+556"/68*+".+5"5+7,0"140570,0";,"8;050"*(>08-6,-+",+55+"E08+1-+"*,"R;6,-0"67+,-*">6-07+,*%"'-_
-6//6,0">8*,/*>65(+,-+"65)+8*"*,.+)05*-*"0"(08-*"+"*5"/5*(6";(*.0",+"E6408*1/+"56".*EE;1*0,+%"P5"E;,70"
F>A6+80>1*1"16>*,+6"/6;16"6."+1%"*5".+>+8*(+,-0".+*"7+8(075*".*"L*>50.*6"1;*">*,*",+8*".+556"X65"X+,01-6H"
10>86--;--0"1;"65)+8*".6,,+77*6-*".6556"1*//*-N"+".6556">80/+11*0,68*6".+5">*,0%"',/A+"56"1-8*6-;86"80116H"
/6;16-6".65"E;,70"L0-A*1-80(6"1+>-01>08;(H">8040/6"56"/6.;-6".+75*"67A*"+"56">+8.*-6".*">0>056(+,-*".*"
>*,*"/+()8*"+"(0,-6,*%"\+75*";5-*(*".*+/*"6,,*"*,"'5-0"'.*7+"*5".+>+8*(+,-0"/6;16-0".65"E;,70"=Y(+,0_
1/Y>A;1"E86e*,+;1"Gb+e+8"+-"65%H"!9&$JH"A6".6,,+77*6-0",0-+405(+,-+"*5"E8611*,0"/0(;,+%"',/A+"1>+/*+"
?:"
"
68)08++"*,461*4+"/0(+"5Q65)+80".+5">686.*10H"/A+".65"!9&B">8+1+,-6"1+7,*".*"6>>611*(+,-0"*,"'5-0"'.*7+H"
>0110,0"+11+8+"6--6//6-+".6"E;,7A*"-861>08-6-*"/0(+"*5"X+8-*/*55*;("GU86--+8H"!9&2J%"
P".6,,*"/6;16-*".675*"6,*(65*"1+54677*"+".675*"65)+8*"6))6--;-*H"10>86--;--0">+8"R;6,-0"8*7;68.6"5+"56-*E075*+"
+"5Q6)+-+")*6,/0H".+-+8(*,6,0">+8.*-+"/0,1*.+8+405*",+556"8*7+,+86O*0,+",6-;865+H"1>+110"1*"8+,.+",+/+1_
168*6"5Q*,1-6556O*0,+".*"8+/*,O*0,*"/0(>5+11+"+"/01-01+"+".*4+,-6"(05-0">*`".*EE*/*5+"0--+,+8+"56"8*0876,*OO6_
O*0,+"E08+1-65+".+1*.+86-6"*,"E08+1-+"(*1-+"f/5*(6-*/6(+,-+"/0(>6-*)*5*g%"
Potenziale situazione futura
P".6,,*"655+"E08+1-+"/6;16-*".6"E6--08*"6)*0-*/*"+")*0-*/*"10,0"1>+110"1-8+--6(+,-+"/0,,+11*H">+8"/;*";,"6;_
(+,-0".+*".6,,*"6)*0-*/*"6"1+7;*-0".*"E+,0(+,*"/5*(6-*/*"+1-8+(*">;h">08-68+"6,/A+"6";,"6;(+,-0".+*"
.6,,*")*0-*/*"1;//+11*4*%"V5*"6--;65*"E0/056*".+5")01-8*/0".+55Q6)+-+"80110"*,.*/6,0"/A+"*5"/05+0--+80"[">+,+_
-86-0"6,/A+",+55+"68++"(0,-6,+">*`"+5+46-+"6"/6;16".+*"/6()*6(+,-*"/5*(6-*/*H"E6--0"/A+">0-8+))+"7+,+_
868+"*,"E;-;80";5-+8*08*"E0/056*"6"1+7;*-0".*"E+,0(+,*"1*(*5*"/0(+"56"80--;86".*"86(*">+8"4+,-0"0",+4+""
Go6l0)Y"+-"65%H"!9&:J%"'"/6;16".+*"/6()*6(+,-*"/5*(6-*/*">0-8+))+"6,/A+"/8+1/+8+"*5",;(+80".*"*,1+--*",0_
/*4*"+"(656--*+"E;,7*,+"G{‚,O"+-"65%H"!9!!J%"'5/;,*">68611*-*H"/0(+"56"-08-8*/+"78*7*6".+5"568*/+H">0110,0">+8h"
.*4+,-68+"61*,/80,*"8*1>+--0"6556">*6,-6"01>*-+"/0,"5Q*,,65O681*".+55+"-+(>+86-;8+H".+-+8(*,6,.0";,"/650"
.+556">0>056O*0,+"+"56"(6,/6,O6".*";,6"8*>80.;O*0,+".*"(6116"Gz+8(+5*,7+8H"+-%"65"!9&BJ%"bQ6;(+,-0"
.+55+"-+(>+86-;8+"*,4+8,65*"+"56".*(*,;O*0,+".+*"7*08,*".*"7+50"E6408*1/0,0"6,/A+"5Q*,1+.*6(+,-0".*""
1>+/*+",0,"6;-0/-0,+H"1*6"68)08++"/A+">6-07+,+"G{‚,O"+-"65%H"!9!!JH"/A+"8677*;,70,0"5QW;80>6"6--864+810"
*5"/0((+8/*0"750)65+%"b+">0>056O*0,*"68)08++"1/6816(+,-+".*4+81*E*/6-+"10,0">68-*/0568(+,-+"1;1/+--*)*5*"
6556".*EE;1*0,+"86>*.6"+"/6>*5568+".*">68611*-*"GM6;A;1H"!9!!J%"F>+110"(6,/6,0"6,/A+",0O*0,*"1;55+".*,6(*_
/A+".+55+"*,E+1-6O*0,*">68611*-68*+H"10>86--;--0",+5"/610".*",;04+"1>+/*+"*,461*4+%"b6"E;-;86"+405;O*0,+".+5"
>80)5+(6".+556")8;/6-;86"1;)*8N"*,"(*1;86"(*,08+"5Q*,E5;+,O6".+55+"+405;O*0,*"/5*(6-*/A+"8*1>+--0"6"R;+556"
.+55+"(*1;8+"1+54*/05-;865*%"W>>;8+"1>+110"6"+11+8+"7864+(+,-+"/05>*-+".6556")8;/6-;86"10,0">80>8*0"5+"
1>+/*+"68)08++"/A+"7*04+8+))+80">68-*/0568(+,-+".+55+"/0,.*O*0,*"(+-+0"E;-;8+"GT+*E"+-"65%H"!9&9J%""
bQ*,/8+(+,-0".*".6,,*"655+"E08+1-+"A6"+EE+--*">68-*/0568(+,-+",+76-*40"1;556"5080"E;,O*0,+".*">80-+O*0,+H"
1;556">80.;O*0,+".*"5+7,6(+"+"1;*">8+OO*".+*"-80,/A*%"
Potenziale di adattamento
k5-8+"6"(*75*0868+"5Qf*.0,+*-N"/5*(6-*/6gH"56"/0,4+81*0,+".*"E08+1-+">;8+"*,"(*1-+"86EE08O6"6,/A+"56"8+1*_
1-+,O6"+"56"8+1*5*+,O6"6"*,1+--*"+"67+,-*">6-07+,*".6,,01*"+">+8"0--+,+8+"/*hH")*107,6"E8+,68+"56".*EE;1*0,+"
.*">68611*-*"+"(656--*+%"S05-+"E;,O*0,*"+"1+84*O*"E08+1-65*"4+,70,0">8+1+846-*"6,/A+"/0,"56"1/0(>6816".*"
1*,705+"1>+/*+"68)08++%"F>+110H"10>86--;--0"655+"65-*-;.*,*">*`"+5+46-+H"5+"1>+/*+"68)08++"6.6--+"655+"E08+_
1-+"(*1-+"10,0"*,",;(+80"5*(*-6-0%"@+8E+O*0,68+"*5"8*5+46(+,-0">8+/0/+".+*".6,,*"1;"56876"1/656H"6."+1%"
6--864+810"*5"-+5+8*5+46(+,-0H">0-8+))+"6*;-68+"6"8*/0,01/+8+"*".6,,*">*`"7864*H"(6"10,0"8*/A*+1-+"8*1081+"
;(6,+"+"-+/,*/A+"6.+7;6-+">+8"8*;1/*8+"6"8+/;>+868+"-+(>+1-*46(+,-+"*5"5+7,0".6,,+77*6-0"+"8*(;0_
4+8+"5+"68++"*,E+1-6-+%"b6"1-86-+7*6">*`"+EE*/6/+">+8"6.6--681*"655+"/0,1+7;+,O+".*8+--+"+"*,.*8+--+".+*"/6(_
)*6(+,-*"/5*(6-*/*"["R;*,.*"56"7+1-*0,+"6--*46".+55+"E08+1-+"GS*56.H"F/A6*/A"x"{0,05.H"!9&!m"@804*,/*6""
6;-0,0(6".*"M05O6,0"_"'5-0"'.*7+H"!9!#J%"
"
!"!"!
O3+-'-3.+,(3+-68&.)'.+)(336+B.8(/*6+++
Cause dei rischi
b+"E08+1-+"10,0"-86"*">*`"*(>08-6,-*"1+8)6-0*".*"/68)0,*0H"1*6">+8/Ac"*((676OO*,6,0"*5"/68)0,*0">8+1+,-+"
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,*0JH"1*6"786O*+"6556">+8/+,-;65+"7+,+865(+,-+"+5+46-6".*"(6-+8*6"0876,*/6">8+1+,-+",+5"1;050"GF/A;5O+"et
al.H"!9!&J%"P,";,6">801>+--*46"E;-;86"5Q6;(+,-0".+55+"-+(>+86-;8+">0-8+))+"*,E5;*8+"1;55+"E08+1-+"*,-+1+"
/0(+"1+8)6-0*".*"/68)0,*0%"P,".+E*,*-*46H"6--864+810"*5">80/+110".*".+/0(>01*O*0,+"*,"1+7;*-0"6556"(08-+"
.+556">*6,-6H"*5"/68)0,*0"*((676OO*,6-0",+55Q65)+80"4*+,+"8*561/*6-0"5+,-6(+,-+H"(+,-8+"/0,"56"/0();_
1-*0,+"4*+,+"8*561/*6-0"4+50/+(+,-+"G@+A"+-"65%H"!9&:J%"
"
??"
"
Situazione attuale
\+5"!9!!"5Q'5-0"'.*7+"46,-646";,6"1;>+8E*/*+"E08+1-65+"/0(>5+11*46".*"#K:%::&"+--68*H"/088*1>0,.+,-+"6"
;,6"/0>+8-;86"E08+1-65+".+5":&"q"+"6";,"405;(+"-0-65+".*"&&?"(*5*0,*".*"(+-8*"/;)*H"/0,";,"6;(+,-0""
6,,;65+".*">0/0"*,E+8*08+"6*".;+"(*5*0,*".*"(+-8*"/;)*%"G';-0,0(+"@804*,O"M0O+,H"!9!#6J%"b+"(*1;8+"+EE+-_
-;6-+">8+110"56"1-6O*0,+".*"(*1;86O*0,+"W..Y_C0468*6,/+"1;5"C08,0".+5"T+,0,"*,.*/6,0";,"6;(+,-0".+556"
>80.;O*0,+">8*(68*6"508.6"+".+556"8+1>*86O*0,+".*"Ck2"/0,";,"61108)*(+,-0"(+.*0".*"/68)0,*0".*"-8+""
-0,,+556-+"655Q6,,0"GM6.867A*"+-"65%H"!9!&J%"
b6"5*,+6"E08+1-65+"1*"1-6"1>01-6,.0"4+810"5Q65-0"6"/6;16".+5"8*1/65.6(+,-0H"(+,-8+"65"/0,-+(>0"644*+,+"56"
8*E08+1-6O*0,+".+*"-+88+,*"678*/05*%"'"/6;16".+*"1+4+8*"8+R;*1*-*".*">80-+O*0,+".+5"1;050H"5+"8*/0,4+81*0,*"
10,0">*;--01-0"868+H"*5"/A+".048+))+">08-68+"6";,"6;(+,-0"/0(>5+11*40".+556"1;>+8E*/*+"E08+1-65+"*,"'5-0"
'.*7+%"bQ;5-*(0"*,4+,-68*0"E08+1-65+">804*,/*65+"G!9&:J"8*165+"6"R;61*".*+/*"6,,*"E6"+"6,.8+))+"8*/0,1*.+_
86-0H"6556"5;/+".*"R;6,-0"6//6.;-0"6"/6;16".+556"-+(>+1-6"X6*6H".+556">8+11*0,+".+556",+4+"+".+556"/656_
(*-N".+5")01-8*/0H"6,/A+"1+"(6,/6,0".6-*"*,4+,-68*65*">8+/*1*"1;55Q+1>6,1*0,+".+556"E08+1-6"+"1;556"1;6""
/6>6/*-N".*"1-0//677*0".+556"Ck2%"
Potenziale situazione futura
bQ6;(+,-0".+55+"-+(>+86-;8+"+"*">+8*0.*".*"(677*08+"1*//*-N"6//8+1/0,0"*5"8*1/A*0".*".6,,+77*6(+,-0".+5"
5+7,0",+55+"E08+1-+H"/A+"6"1;6"405-6"6;(+,-6"*5"8*1/A*0".*"*,/+,.*")01/A*4*"+".+-+8(*,6";,"8*561/*0">0-+,_
O*65(+,-+">*`"86>*.0"+"(611*//*0".*"6,*.8*.+"/68)0,*/6".655+"E08+1-+".+55QW;80>6"/+,-865+%"G@+AH"C085+--"x"
M+87+80,H"!9&:J%"',/A+"*".6,,*"6)*0-*/*"+")*0-*/*"655+"E08+1-+"8*.;/0,0"50"1-0/l".*"/68)0,*0">8+1+,-+H""
10>86--;--0"1+"*5"5+7,0"8*/646-0"4*+,+";-*5*OO6-0"/0(+"5+7,6".6"68.+8+H"8*561/*6,.0"/01d"56"Ck2",+55Q6-(0_
1E+86%"'"5;,70"-+8(*,+"5+"-+(>+86-;8+">*`"+5+46-+"6//+5+8+86,,0"56"8+1>*86O*0,+".+55+">*6,-+"+"56".+/0(_
>01*O*0,+".+55+"101-6,O+"0876,*/A+",+5"1;050%"bQ6--*4*-N".+75*"0876,*1(*".+5"1;050"8+1>0,16)*5*".+556""
.+/0(>01*O*0,+".*>+,.+"6,/A+".655Q;(*.*-N".+5"-+88+,0%"C0,"5Q6;(+,-0".+55+"-+(>+86-;8+"+".+55Q"
;(*.*-N"*5"1;050"8*561/*6";,6"(677*08+"R;6,-*-N".*"Ck2"G@0j510,H"!99:m"=+*(6,,"x"T+*/A1-+*,H"!99BJH"*5"
/A+"5*(*-6"1*7,*E*/6-*46(+,-+"56"E;,O*0,+".*"1+R;+1-80".+556"Ck2".6">68-+".+55+"E08+1-+%"
Potenziale di adattamento
b6"/0,4+81*0,+".+55+"68++"E08+1-65*"6."65-8+"E08(+".*";-*5*OO0".048+))+"+11+8+"+4*-6-6H",+5"5*(*-+".+5""
>011*)*5+H">+8/Ac"*5"/68)0,*0"*((676OO*,6-0",+5"1;050"E08+1-65+"4*+,+"8*561/*6-0",;046(+,-+",+55Q"
6-(01E+86"6--864+810"56"8+1>*86O*0,+".+*"(*/80876,*1(*%"<*,0"6"&H:9"(+-8*".*">80E0,.*-NH"*5"/68)0,*0"0876_
,*/0"E;,7+".6">0OO0".*"61108)*(+,-0".+5"/68)0,*0"GF/A;)+8-H"!9&9m"F/A;5O"x"{5+*,H"!9&&J%"b0"1-0/l".*""
/68)0,*0"0876,*/0",+5"1;050".+55+"E08+1-+"8+67*1/+"*,"(0.0"8655+,-6-0"6*"/6()*6(+,-*"6")8+4+"-+8(*,+H"
(+,-8+"*5"5+7,0"(08-0H"+11+,.0"*5">*`">*//050".+>01*-0".*"/68)0,*0".+556"E08+1-6H",+"/0,-*+,+"/*8/6"!H#"
-0,,+556-+">+8"+--680"G{5+*,"x"F/A;5OH"!9&&J%"bQ;10".+5"5+7,0"/0,1+,-+".*"*((676OO*,68+"/68)0,*0">+8"
-;--6"56".;86-6".*"4*-6".+5">80.0--0H"6,/A+"1+",0,"["E6/*5+"1-*(68+"56"R;6,-*-N"-0-65+".*"/68)0,*0"*((676O_
O*,6-6",+*">80.0--*"*,"5+7,0%"C*8/6"*5"K:"q"["*((676OO*,6-0",+75*"+.*E*/*"8+1*.+,O*65*%"b6"4*-6";-*5+"["E0,.6_
(+,-65+">+8"56">80-+O*0,+".+5"/5*(6%"b+"E08+1-+"7+1-*-+"655+77+8*1/0,0"5Q677864*0"1;55Q6-(01E+86">+8/Ac"
*((676OO*,6,0"*5"/68)0,*0",+75*"65)+8*"+",+*">80.0--*"5+7,01*"+"6,/A+"786O*+"6556"5080"/6>6/*-N".*"101-*-;_
O*0,+"GF/A;5OH"!9!9J%"@+8"+4*-68+"5Q+46>086O*0,+".*"R;+1-0">0-+,O*65+".*"1-0//677*0".+5"/68)0,*0",+55+""
E08+1-+"+",+*">80.0--*"5+7,01*H"*,"E;-;80"168N"1+(>8+">*`"*(>08-6,-+H"+"R;+1-0"465+"6,/A+">+8"56"8+7*0,+"
65>*,6H"8*.;88+"65"(*,*(0"*5"8*1/A*0".*"*,/+,.*")01/A*4*H"65"E*,+".*"+4*-68+";,";5-+8*08+"6;(+,-0".+5"/0,-+_
,;-0".*"/68)0,*0",+55Q6-(01E+86"6"/6;16".+5"8*561/*0"6")8+4+"-+8(*,+".*"786,.*"R;6,-*-N".*"Ck2%"
"
!"!"9
;:)N'.)(+,'+/*.--677'.+,(33P6-Q:6++
Cause dei rischi
b+"/A*0(+".+75*"65)+8*"0EE80,0"65"-+88+,0">80-+O*0,+".65"86>*.0".+E5;110".*"6/R;6H"10>86--;--0"*,"/610".*"
E08-*">8+/*>*-6O*0,*%"S*75*086"/01d"5Q*,E*5-86O*0,+"+"1*"8*.;/0,0"*5".+E5;110"1;>+8E*/*65+"+"56"/088+56-6"+80_
1*0,+%"P"-+88+,*"E08+1-65*"8*//A*".*"A;(;1"+")+,"86.*/6-*"A6,,0";,Q+5+46-6"/6>6/*-N".*"*((676OO*,68+"5Q"
6/R;6".+8*46,-+".6550"1/*075*(+,-0".+55+",+4*"+".655+">*077+"Gz+*,(+*1-+8H"!99#J"+"E;,70,0"*,05-8+".6"
E*5-80">+8"56"1>08/*O*6"+"5+"101-6,O+"*,R;*,6,-*">8+1+,-*",+55Q6/R;6">*046,6%"\+75*"1-86-*">*`">80E0,.*".+5"
?K"
"
1;050"E08+1-65+H".6"/;*"5Q6/R;6".+E5;*1/+"1050"5+,-6(+,-+H"1*"/8+6,0"E65.+"6/R;*E+8+">;5*-+"+"8*1+84+".*""
6/R;6">0-6)*5+H"/A+"611*/;86,0"*5".+E5;110".+55+"1087+,-*"+"*5"8*E08,*(+,-0"*.8*/0".+*"/081*".Q6/R;6"10--+8_
86,+*"Gi*85+j67+,"x"z*5>+8-H"!99&J%"
Situazione attuale
\0,"["6,/086">011*)*5+"E68+";,6"1-*(6".+55+"/0,1+7;+,O+".04;-+"6*".6,,*"6)*0-*/*".+75*";5-*(*"/*,R;+"6,,*"
+"655Q6--;65+"6;(+,-0".+55+"(611+".*")01-8*/0H"-;--64*6"1*">8+4+.+"/A+",+*">8011*(*"6,,*"6;(+,-+8N"*5""
.+E5;110"1;>+8E*/*65+H".*(*,;*8N"50"1-0//677*0".+55Q6/R;6"+",+55+"68++"/05>*-+"1*"4+8*E*/A+8N";,"(677*08+"
1/68*/0".*",;-8*+,-*"G{5‚/l*,7"+-"65%H"!99:J%"
Potenziale situazione futura
L6,,*"+1-+1*"655+"E08+1-+">0110,0"*,-+,1*E*/68+"5Q+801*0,+".+5"1;050"+"56"5*1/*4*6O*0,+".+55Q6O0-0H"10>86-_
-;--0".0>0"E08-*">*077+"5;,70"*">+,.**"1/01/+1*H"/0(>80(+--+,.0"6,/A+"5+"E;,O*0,*".+55Q6/R;6".*"*((6_
76OO*,68+"+"E*5-868+"*5"-+88+,0"G{8;1+H"!9&9J%"X6"*,05-8+"10--05*,+6-0"/A+";,6"7+1-*0,+"(+//6,*OO6-6".+55+"
E08+1-+">;h">08-68+"6556"/0(>80(*11*0,+"+"6556"/0(>6--6O*0,+".+5"1;050H"8*>+8/;0-+,.01*",+76-*46(+,-+"
1;556"1;6"/6>6/*-N".*"*((676OO*,68+"5Q6/R;6"GF+*-OH"!9!!m"@;A5(6,,H"!9!#J%"
Potenziale di adattamento
b+"1-8;--;8+"E08+1-65*">+8(6,+,-*"+";,Q6.+7;6-6"7+1-*0,+"E08+1-65+"10,0"6;1>*/6)*5*">+8/AcH"*,1*+(+"6";,"
;10"101-+,*)*5+".+55+"8*1081+"*.8*/A+"+";,6"7+1-*0,+"E08+1-65+"*5">*`">011*)*5+">681*(0,*016H">8+1+846,0",+5"
5;,70">+8*0.0"-+8(*,+"56"/6>6/*-N".*"6//;(;50".+55Q6/R;6"G@;A5(6,,H"!9!#J%"
"
!"!"R
;:)N'.)(+,'+3.-63'NN6N'.)(+(+=8.*(N'.)(+,(336+=8.=8'(*K+
Cause dei rischi
b+"E08+1-+",+55+"68++"(0,-6,+"140570,0";,"8;050"/8;/*65+",+5"(6,-+,+8+"5+"E;,O*0,*".*">80-+O*0,+"/0,-80"
*">+8*/05*",6-;865*"+"5Q+801*0,+%"C*8/6"*5":B"q".+55+"E08+1-+"65-06-+1*,+"0EE8+">80-+O*0,+"/0,-80"4656,7A+H"
/6.;-6"(611*"+"E86,+%"P,05-8+H"/*8/6"*5"!$"q".+55+"E08+1-+"["/01-*-;*-0".6")01/A*".*">80-+O*0,+".+556">80_
>8*+-NH"011*6"/A+"E;,70,0".6"8*>680">+8"*,1+.*6(+,-*"+"*,E861-8;--;8+".*"-861>08-0".675*"+EE+--*".*"+4+,-*"
,6-;865*">+8*/0501*"/0(+"E86,+"+"4656,7A+"G3EE*/*0"@*6,*E*/6O*0,+"E08+1-65+H"!9!#J%""
Situazione attuale
V5*"+4+,-*".+75*";5-*(*"/*,R;+"6,,*H"*,">68-*/0568+"56"-+(>+1-6"X6*6"+"56"1;//+11*46"+>*.+(*6".*")01-8*/0H"
A6,,0"(+110"*,"+4*.+,O6"5Q*(>08-6,O6".+556"E;,O*0,+">80-+--*46".+556"E08+1-6"+"6,/A+"56"1;6"4;5,+86)*_
5*-N%"k5-8+"65"8*()01/A*(+,-0H"["1-6-0",+/+1168*0"6.0--68+"6,/A+"(*1;8+"-+/,*/A+">8+4+,-*4+H"*,">68-*/0_
568+",+*")01/A*"/A+">80-+770,0"5+">80>8*+-N%"b6"1/0(>6816".+55+"E08+1-+",0,"1*"-86.;/+"1050",+556">+8.*-6"
.*">80-+O*0,+".6*"8*1/A*",6-;865*H"56"5080"611+,O6"4;05".*8+"6,/A+"(6,/6,O6".*">80-+O*0,+".65">68-*/056-0"+"
.6*"8;(08*"+".*";,"(*/80/5*(6">*6/+405+"Go6Y"+-"65%H"!9&?J%"Z;+1-*"+EE+--*"1*">+8/+>*1/0,0">+8h"1050"
R;6,.0"08(6*"56"E08+1-6",0,"+1*1-+">*`%"
Potenziale situazione futura
X+,+,.0"6"(6,/68+"5+"E08+1-+">80-+--*4+">+8/Ac"*,.+)05*-+"0"1/0(>681+"6"/6;16".*"E6--08*"6)*0-*/*"+I0"
)*0-*/*H"*,"/610".*">*077*6"0",+4+"5+"*,E861-8;--;8+"+"75*"*,1+.*6(+,-*">0-8+))+80"+11+8+".*8+--6(+,-+""
/05>*-*"+".*1-8;--*".6"4656,7A+H"/056-+".*"E6,70H"*,0,.6O*0,*"0"E86,+%"b+">8+4*1*0,*")616-+"1;"(0.+55*""
8*7;68.0"6556"E;,O*0,+">80-+--*46".+556"E08+1-6",+5"E;-;80".*(01-86,0";,Q*,E5;+,O6",+76-*46".+556"1*//*-N"
1;*")01/A*H"*,">68-*/0568+"655+"R;0-+">*`")611+H"(+,-8+"655+"R;0-+">*`"65-+"8*(688N"/01-6,-+"0"(*75*08+8N"
6..*8*--;86"G=*55+)86,."+-"65%H"!9!#m"S001"+-"65%H"!9!#J%"
P,61>+--6-6(+,-+H">+8hH"56"1;//+11*0,+".*"+4+,-*".6,,01*",+75*";5-*(*"6,,*"A6"1+,1*)*5*OO6-0"56">0>056_
O*0,+"1;556",+/+11*-N".*"8*(;04+8+"75*"65)+8*"*,">8011*(*-N".*"*,E861-8;--;8+"+."+.*E*/*%"F;556")61+".+55Q+1>+_
8*+,O6"(6-;86-6"/0,"R;+1-*"E+,0(+,*H"*">80>8*+-68*"-+88*+8*".+40,0"611;(+81*"56"8+1>0,16)*5*-N".+*".6,,*"
+".+55+"8*/A*+1-+".*"8*168/*(+,-0"G"C0.*/+"/*4*5+H"&2$!J%"
"
?B"
"
Potenziale di adattamento
P,"/610".*"+4+,-*".6,,01*"5+"1-8;--;8+"E08+1-65*">+8(6,+,-*"10,0"*,"786.0".*"(6,-+,+8+"56"1;1/+--*)*5*-N"65"
.*1-;8)0"+"56"E;,O*0,+">80-+--*46"(+75*0".+55+"E08+1-+">;8+"G@;A5(6,,H"!9!#J%"@0-8+))+"+11+8+",+/+116_
8*0"8*()01/A*8+"5+"E08+1-+".6,,+77*6-+"6,/A+"*,"E;-;80%"
"
Sommario – Rischi principali
a T*1/A*0".*".6,,*"655+"E08+1-+"6"/6;16".*"E+,0(+,*"(+-+080507*/*"+1-8+(*">*`"E8+R;+,-*"+">*`""
*,-+,1*"G-+(>+1-+H"E08-*">8+/*>*-6O*0,*H"1*//*-NJ"+".+55Q6;(+,-0".+55+"-+(>+86-;8+"G80--;86".+*"
86(*"6"/6;16".+556",+4+")67,6-6JH"/A+">0110,0"*,,+1/68+";5-+8*08*".6,,*")*0-*/*"/0,1+7;+,-*"+"
R;*,.*"64+8+"6,/A+"+EE+--*"10/*0_+/0,0(*/*"
a T*1/A*0".*"1/0(>6816"0".*"1>01-6(+,-0"1>6O*65+".+55+"1>+/*+"68)08++",+556"O0,6"65-*-;.*,65+H"
*,/+8-+OO6"1;55Q;10".*"1>+/*+"68)08++",0,"6;-0/-0,+"+"1;55+"/0,1+7;+,O+",0,"6,/086">8+4+.*_
)*5*">+8"56".*4+81*-N".+55+"1>+/*+"68)08++H"56"4+7+-6O*0,+".+5"1;050"E08+1-65+"+"56"E6;,6H">+8.*-6"
.*"68++"E08+1-65*"6"/6;16".*"/6()*6(+,-*".+55+"/0,.*O*0,*",6-;865*"0".+556"/0,4+81*0,+"6."65-8+"
E08(+".*";-*5*OO0"
a T*1/A*0".*".6,,+77*6(+,-0"+"1/0(>6816".*"461-+"68++"E08+1-65*"6"/6;16".*">68611*-*I(656--*+H"
/0(+"/0,1+7;+,O6".+5".+/5*,0".+556"4*-65*-N".+55+"E08+1-+"
a T*1/A*0".*"+5+46-+"+(*11*0,*".*"/68)0,*0"*,"/610".*"*,/+,.*")01/A*4*"0".*"1/0(>6816".*"461-+"68++"
.*"E08+1-6m",+5"5;,70"-+8(*,+"6,/A+"786.;65+"8*.;O*0,+".+550"1-0//677*0".*"/68)0,*0",+556"E08+_
1-6"6"/6;16".+55Q6;(+,-0".+556".+/0(>01*O*0,+".+556"(6-+8*6"0876,*/6",+5"1;050"E08+1-65+">+8"
5+"-+(>+86-;8+">*`"+5+46-+"
a T*1/A*0".*"/0(>80(*11*0,+".+556"E;,O*0,+".*"8*-+,O*0,+"*.8*/6"+".+556"R;65*-N".+55Q6/R;6"6"/6;16"
.*".6,,*"655+"E08+1-+"*,"R;+1-+"O0,+"+">+8";,6"7+1-*0,+"E08+1-65+"*,6.+7;6-6"0"611+,-+"
a T*1/A*0".*"8*.;O*0,+I>+8.*-6".+556"E;,O*0,+">80-+--*46".+556"E08+1-6"6"/6;16".+5".6,,+77*6_
(+,-0"+".+5".+/5*,0".+5">6-8*(0,*0"E08+1-65+"+".+556"(6,/6,O6".*">80>8*+-68*"6--*4*"
"
Bibliografia
– Amt der Steiermärkischen Landesregierung (2022a) Dynamische Waldtypisierung - Standörtliche Grundlagen und Anpas-
sungsmaßnahmen an den Klimawandel. Band 1. Graz: ABT10 Land- und Forstwirtschaft, Landesforstdirektion.
– Amt der Steiermärkischen Landesregierung (2022b) Dynamische Waldtypisierung - Standörtliche Grundlagen und Anpas-
sungsmaßnahmen an den Klimawandel. Band 2. ABT10 Land- und Forstwirtschaft, Landesforstdirektion.
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vincia.bz.it/it/bosco-di-protezione (Accessed: 24 January 2024).
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adige/categorie-di-propriet.asp (Accessed: 24 April 2024).
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– Hillebrand, L. et al. (2023) ‘Contrasting impacts of climate change on protection forests of the Italian Alps’, Frontiers in For-
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typographus). Birmendorf: Eidg. Forschungsanstalt WSL., p. 45. Available at: Borkenkäfer im Klimawandel - waldwissen.net.
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aus Forstwirtschaft und Naturschutz.’, Allgemeine Forst und Jagdzeitung [Preprint].
– Moos, C. et al. (2023) ‘Mountain protective forests under threat? an in-depth review of global change impacts on their pro-
tective effect against natural hazards’, Frontiers in Forests and Global Change, 6, p. 1223934. Available at:
https://doi.org/10.3389/ffgc.2023.1223934.
– Niedrist, G. et al. (2022) Climate Change Monitoring South Tyrol. Data in Action. Bolzano/Bozen: Eurac Research. Available at:
https://doi.org/10.57749/8ZPX-HM12.
– Peh, K.S.H., Corlett, R. and Bergeron, Y. (2015) Routledge handbook of forest ecology. Routledge Taylor & Francis Group.
– Powlson, D. (2005) ‘Will soil amplify climate change?’, Nature, 433, pp. 204–205.
– Puhlmann, H. (2023) ‘Waldböden und ihre Wirkung auf den Wasserhaushalt’, Praxis Wasserwirtschaft, 11. Available at:
www.springerprofessional.d/wawi.
– Reif, A. et al. (2010) Waldbau und Baumartenwahl in Zeiten des Klimawandels aus Sicht des Naturschutzes: Abschlussbericht
eines F+ E-Vorhabens im Auftrag des Bundesamtes für Naturschutz; FKZ 3508-84-0200. Deutschland: Bundesamt für Natur-
schutz.
– Schubert, A. (2010) ‘Organisch gebundener Kohlenstoff im Waldboden’, LWF aktuell [Preprint], (78). Available at:
https://www.lwf.bayern.de/mam/cms04/boden-klima/dateien/a78-organisch-gebundener-kohlenstoff-im-waldboden.pdf
(Accessed: 24 January 2024).
– Schulz, C. (2020) Kohlenstoffbindung in Bayerns Wäldern. Available at: https://www.lwf.bayern.de/boden-klima/kohlen-
stoffbindung/266779/index.php#:~:text=In%20den%20Waldb%C3%B6den%20Bayerns%20sind,organ-
ischen%20Auflage%20(12%20t). (Accessed: 24 January 2024).
– Schulz, C. and Klein, D. (2011) ‘Der kräftige Atem der Waldböden’, LWF aktuell [Preprint], (82). Available at:
https://www.lwf.bayern.de/mam/cms04/boden-klima/dateien/a82-der-kraeftige-atem-der-waldboeden.pdf (Accessed: 24
January 2024).
– Schulze, E.D. et al. (2021) ‘Speicherung von Kohlenstoff im Ökosystem und Substitution fossiler Brennstoffe-Klimaschutz mit
Wald.’, in Biologie in unserer Zeit, pp. 51, 46–54. Available at: https://pure.mpg.de/rest/items/item_3286029/compo-
nent/file_3286045/content.
– Seitz, S. (2022) ‘Wald in der Vielfalt möglicher Perspektiven: Von der Pluralität lebensweltlicher Bezüge und wissenschaftli-
cher Thematisierungen’, in Wald und Boden. Wiesbaden, Deutschland: Springer Fachmedien, pp. 181–199.
– Tratter, L. (2019) Bekämpfungsmaßnahmen des Götterbaumes in Südtirol.
K9"
"
– Weinmeister, W. (2003) Fähigkeiten des Waldes zur Verminderung von Hochwasser und Erosionsschäden: Hochwasserschutz
im Wald. 40. Deutschland: LWF Freising, pp. 15–29.
– Wermelinger, B., Nievergelt, D. and Forster, B. (2018) ‘Zyklen und Bedeutung des Lärchenwicklers.’
– Zirlewagen, D. and Wilpert, K. (2001) Was hat Waldbau mit Trinkwasservorsorge zu tun. Available at: http://www. waldwis-
sen. net/themen/umwelt_landschaft/wasserschutz/fva_trink wasservorsorge.
– Zivilgesetzbuch/Codice Civile (1942). (A Ottobre 2023).
K&"
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4.5
Salute
Autrice e autori: Giulia Roveri, Frederik Eisendle, Giacomo Strapazzon
"
"
Figura 19: Catena degli impatti per illustrare il pericolo, l'esposizione e la vulnerabilità del settore sanitario"
Introduzione
bQ*(>6--0".+*"/6()*6(+,-*"/5*(6-*/*"1;55Q'5-0"'.*7+"["E08-+"+"1*"8*>+8/;0-+".*8+--6(+,-+"1;556"165;-+"
;(6,6"+"6,*(65+%"bQ6;(+,-0".+55+"-+(>+86-;8+"(+.*+"+"56".*(*,;O*0,+".+556"/0>+8-;86",+4016"10,0"
/6;16".*">80)5+(*"/0(+"5Q6;(+,-0".*"E86,+H"*,0,.6O*0,*"+"4656,7A+H"/A+"6//8+1/0,0"*5"8*1/A*0".*"5+1*0,*"
6,/A+"E6-65*%"V5*"+4+,-*"5+76-*"65"/6()*6(+,-0"/5*(6-*/0H"/0(+"5Q*,,65O6(+,-0".+5"5*4+550".+5"(68+H"75*"+E_
E+--*".*"E+,0(+,*"(+-+080507*/*"+1-8+(*"+"56"1/681*-N".*"8*1081+">0110,0".+-+8(*,68+"50"186.*/6(+,-0"+""
56"(*786O*0,+".*">+810,+"/A+"1*"-8046,0"6."6EE80,-68+"/0,.*O*0,*".*"4*-6"*,6.+7;6-+"GM688+--"+-"65%H"!9&:J%"
\+*"/+,-8*">+8"8*E;7*6-*"10486EE0556-*"+">8*4*".*"*,E861-8;--;8+"(+.*/A+"6.+7;6-+">0110,0"(6,*E+1-681*"E0/0_
56*".*"(656--*+"+H"6"/6;16".+5"8*1/65.6(+,-0"750)65+H"1*"1-6,,0".*EE0,.+,.0"*,E+O*0,*"/0(+"R;+556".*"bY(+H"
/6;16-6".655+"O+//A+H"0"56"E+))8+".+,7;+H">08-6-6".655+"O6,O68+%"P5"(;-6(+,-0".+55+"/0,.*O*0,*"(+-+080_
507*/A+"(*,6//*6"6,/A+"5Q678*/05-;86"+"5Q6>>8044*7*0,6(+,-0".+75*"65*(+,-*H"(+--+,.0"6"8*1/A*0"56""
1*/;8+OO6"65*(+,-68+"50/65+%"b+"/0(;,*-N".+55+"8+7*0,*"(0,-6,+"10,0"E08-+(+,-+".*>+,.+,-*".6556",6-;86"
+"8*1+,-0,0".+75*"+EE+--*".+5"/6()*6(+,-0"/5*(6-*/0H"/0,";,"*(>6--0",+76-*40"1;55Q+/0,0(*6"+"1;5")+,+1_
1+8+"(+,-65+".+55+">+810,+%"@+8"165467;68.68+"56"165;-+".+556">0>056O*0,+H"["R;*,.*"+11+,O*65+"6.0--68+"
(*1;8+".*"6.6--6(+,-0"+"(*-*76O*0,+H"R;65*"1*1-+(*".*"655+8-6">8+/0/+H"1+84*O*"16,*-68*"(*75*086-*"+"*,*O*6_
-*4+".*"+.;/6O*0,+"65"/6()*6(+,-0"/5*(6-*/0%"
Esterno: ad es: pandemie
(legate al clima), comparsa
di agenti patogeni
Aumento delle
malattie infettive
legato al clima
Aumento delle
emergenze dovute
a disastri da
pericoli naturali
esterni
Malattie causate
dalla riduzione della
qualità dellʼacqua e
del cibo dovuta al
clima
Conseguenze del
caldo sulla salute
+freddo
+inquinamento
atmosferico
Lavoratori che
svolgono attività
allʼaperto
Pianicazione
territoriale non
adattata al clima
Isole di calore
nelle città
Edici scarsa-
mente isolati
Anziani, invecchia-
mento
Persone con patologie
preesistenti
Classi socialmente più
deboli, migranti,
aumento delle
disuguaglianze sociali
Mancanza di dati,
monitoraggio e
sistemi di allerta
precoce
Mancanza di
preparazione del
sistema sanitario e di
preparazione ai
disastri.
Introduzione di
agenti patogeni
(viaggi, migrazioni)
Formazione e
preparazione inadeguata
del personale di primo
soccorso e delle
persone coinvolte
Legame con i rischi climatici: Biodiversità, gestione dellʼacqua, insediamenti + infrastrutture, energia, economia
Popolazione, in particolare gruppi vulnerabili (ad esempio anziani, persone con patologie preesistenti); sistema sanitario
Salute
Aumento delle
temperature e del calore
Pioggia più intensa, grandine,
temporali, tempeste
Aumento dei problemi di salute mentale
Maggiore fabbisogno
energetico per il
rareddamento
Energia
Aumento della
diusione di zecche e
zanzare che trasmettono
malattie infettive
Carenza di acqua
potabile
Batteri presenti
nellʼacqua e negli
alimenti (ad es.
salmonella)
Aumento di smotta-
menti, frane, caduta
massi, inondazioni.
Pericoli legati al clima
Impatti climatici
Sistemi esposti
Vulnerabilità, fattori di rischio non climatici
Rischio principale con necessità di intervento
urgente alto medio
K!"
"
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D*8(//+*(8%'-.+,6+-63.8(+(+,6+B8(,,.+(+')Q:')6%()*.+6*%./B(8'-.+++
Cause dei rischi
P5"/6()*6(+,-0"/5*(6-*/0"1-6">08-6,.0"6.";,"*,,65O6(+,-0"/0,-*,;0".+55+"-+(>+86-;8+"+"6.";,"6;_
(+,-0".+5"/01*..+--0"fstress da caloreg"10>86--;--0",+55+"/*--NH".04+"*5"/6508+"4*+,+"6//;(;56-0".655+""
1;>+8E*/*"*(>+8(+6)*5*OO6-+"+".675*"+.*E*/*%"L;86,-+"*">+8*0.*".*"/65.0"+1-8+(0"5+"-+(>+86-;8+"8677*;,_
70,0">*//A*"(05-0"+5+46-*"+"1*"8+7*1-86";,"6;(+,-0".+5",;(+80".+55+"/01*..+--+",0--*"-80>*/65*%"U;--0"/*h"
(+--+"6".;86">8046"56"165;-+".+556">0>056O*0,+"50/65+"+H"*,">68-*/0568"(0.0H".+55+">+810,+">*`"E867*5*H""
6;(+,-6,.0,+"56"(08-65*-N"Gb+(+8Y"x"';+8)6/AH"!9&KJ%"',O*6,*H"(656-*"+")6()*,*"10,0"*"1077+--*""
(677*08(+,-+"/05>*-*"Gb+EE+81H"!9!!J"(6"6,/A+"6.;5-*"+I0"7*046,*">0110,0"8*1/0,-868+">80)5+(*".04;-*"65"
/65.0H"10>86--;--0",+5"/610"E6//*6,0";10".*"65/05"0".807A+%"P5"/65.0"*,E5;*1/+"6,/A+"1;556"165;-+"+"1;5"8+,.*_
(+,-0"65"564080"+"/05>*1/+"*,">68-*/0568"(0.0"/A*"14057+"56408*"6."65-0"8*1/A*0"/0(+"/05080"/A+"564086,0"
,+5"1+--08+"+.*5+"+"678*/050%"
P"E+,0(+,*"(+-+080507*/*"+1-8+(*">0110,0"*,05-8+"/6;168+"(656--*+"5+76-+"65"E8+..0H"/0(+"*"/0,7+56_
(+,-*"GC86(+8"+-"65%H"!9!!J"+"5Q*>0-+8(*6"G@665"+-"65%H"!9&?J"10>86--;--0"-86"56">0>056O*0,+">*`"*,.*7+,-+H"
/A+",0,".*1>0,+".*"6)*-6O*0,*"0"1*1-+(*".*"8*1/65.6(+,-0"6.+7;6-*%""
Situazione attuale
bQ6--;65+"5*4+550".*"1-8+11".6"/6508+"*,"'5-0"'.*7+",0,"[".0/;(+,-6-0H"(6"5+"(656--*+"/A+",+"/0,1+7;0,0"
/0(+"*5"/05>0".*"/6508+H"5Q+16;8*(+,-0".6"/6508+"+"56".*1*.86-6O*0,+"1-6,,0"6;(+,-6,.0"*,"-;--0"*5"(0,.0"
GC86(+8"+-"65%H"!9!!J%"'."67786468+"56"1*-;6O*0,+"/0,-8*);*1/0,0"(*1;8+".*">05*-*/6"16,*-68*6"*,6.+7;6-+"+"
56"(6,/6,O6".*"/0,16>+405+OO6%"P5"/0,7+56(+,-0"+"5Q*>0-+8(*6"-86"75*"6-5+-*"/A+">86-*/6,0"6--*4*-N"
655Q6>+8-0"077*"10,0"6,/086"868*H"(6">0110,0"+11+8+"E6-65*"GF-8‚A5+"+-"65%H"!9&BJ%"P"1+,O6-+--0"/A+"4*40,0"
*,"/0,.*O*0,*">8+/68*+"10,0">68-*/0568(+,-+"+1>01-*"65"8*1/A*0".*"*>0-+8(*6"+I0"6550"14*5;>>0".*"5+1*0,*".6"
/0,7+56(+,-0%"\+5".*/+()8+"!9!!"*,"'5-0"'.*7+";,"1+,O6-+--0"["(08-0"611*.+86-0"G1+84*O*0"T'P"'5-0"
'.*7+".+5"2".*/+()8+"!9!!J%"
b+"(656--*+"8+1>*86-08*+"/0(+"5Q61(6"+"56")80,/0>,+;(0>6-*6"/80,*/6"01-8;--*46"GM@CkJ"10,0"6,/A+";,6"
/0,1+7;+,O6".+55Q*,R;*,6(+,-0"6-(01E+8*/0"GT6Y"x"S*,7H"!9!9JH"/A+"1;>+86"8*>+-;-6(+,-+"*"5*(*-*""
86//0(6,.6-*".655wkSFH"10>86--;--0",+55+"/*--NH",+55+"68++"*,.;1-8*65*"+"5;,70"5+"6;-01-86.+"+">8040/6"*5"
.+-+8*086(+,-0".+*">05(0,*H"/0,"/0,1+7;+,-*"8*>+8/;11*0,*"1;*"1*1-+(*"16,*-68*"GT0(6,+550"+-"65%H"!9!!J%"
bQ6((*,*1-86O*0,+"(0,*-086"/0,"786,.+"6--+,O*0,+"56"R;65*-N".+55Q68*6"*,"'5-0"'.*7+"+."+(+--+"*"8+56-*4*"
)055+--*,*"GA-->1DII;(j+5-%>804*,O%)O%*-I5;E-I6l-;+55+_5;E-(+11.6-+,%61>JH"4*1-0"/A+"*"46508*"5*(*-+"86//0_
(6,.6-*"4+,70,0"1;>+86-*"7*N",+5"/0810".*">805;,76-*">+8*0.*".*"1*//*-N"0"*,"/0,.*O*0,*".*"*,4+81*0,+"-+8_
(*/6%"
Potenziale situazione futura
3,6"/0,1+7;+,O6".*8+--6".+*"/6()*6(+,-*"/5*(6-*/*"168N"5Q*,+4*-6)*5+"*,/8+(+,-0".+55+"(656--*+"*(>;-6_
)*5*"65"/65.0%"3,6"(677*08+"E8+R;+,O6"+"*,-+,1*-N".+55+"0,.6-+".*"/6508+"86>>8+1+,-6,0";,"8*1/A*0"16,*-6_
8*0"750)65+"+"(+--+86,,0"6".;86">8046"*"1*1-+(*"16,*-68*"50/65*"GT0(6,+550"+-"65%H"!9!!J%"CA*",0,"[">8+>6_
86-0"6."6EE80,-68+"E+,0(+,*".*"/6508+"+1-8+(0">0-8+))+"+11+8+"(677*08(+,-+"+1>01-0"6"(08)*5*-N"+"
(08-65*-N%"P5"8*1/65.6(+,-0".+5">8011*(0"E;-;80"6//8+1/+8N"75*"+EE+--*".+55Q*,R;*,6(+,-0"6-(01E+8*/0H"*,"
>68-*/0568+".+5">68-*/056-0"G@S&9"+"@S!H:J"+".+55Q0O0,0H"1;556"165;-+H"6;(+,-6,.0"*5"8*1/A*0".*"(656--*+"
>05(0,68*H"10>86--;--0",+55+">+810,+"/0,">6-0507*+">8++1*1-+,-*"Gb+(+8Y"x"';+8)6/AH"!9&KJ%"
\0,01-6,-+"1*">8+4+.6,0"*,4+8,*"(+.*6(+,-+">*`"(*-*H"5+"8+7*0,*"65>*,+"*,">68-*/0568+">0-8+))+80"1>+8*_
(+,-68+"*,4+8,*">*`"8*7*.*"6"/6;16".+55w*,1-6)*5*-N"6-(01E+8*/6%"P5"/0,1+7;+,-+">68O*65+"6;(+,-0".+55w*,R;*_
,6(+,-0"6-(01E+8*/0"+".+5"-86EE*/0"(+--+"6"8*1/A*0"5w6--;65+"-+,.+,O6"65"(*75*086(+,-0".+556"R;65*-N"
.+55w68*6"*,"'5-0"'.*7+H"/A+"168+))+"6110/*6-0"6";,"/088*1>0,.+,-+"6;(+,-0".+55+"(656--*+"8+1>*86-08*+"
G=*6--"x"M+Y+5+8H"!9!9J"+";,"E08-+"*(>6--0"1;556"165;-+">;))5*/6"750)65+"GW)*"+-"65%H"!9!&J"(+--+,.0"6"
.;86">8046"5+"8*1081+"(+.*/A+%"
Potenziale di adattamento
b+"(*1;8+".*"6.6--6(+,-0"*,/5;.0,0"8+R;*1*-*"6()*+,-65*">*`"1+4+8*",+556">*6,*E*/6O*0,+";8)6,6H"/0(>8+1*"
1>6O*"4+8.*"+"*,E861-8;--;8+"8+1*5*+,-*"+I0"4+8.*%"^"*(>08-6,-+"*,E08(68+"-+(>+1-*46(+,-+"56">0>056O*0,+"
K#"
"
8*7;68.0"655+"(*1;8+">8+4+,-*4+H"/0(+"5Q6//+110"6"50/65*".*;8,*"/5*(6-*OO6-*">+8"*"78;>>*"4;5,+86)*5*H"+"655+8_
-68+">+8"-+(>0"*5"1+--08+"16,*-68*0H"E6/+,.0"8*/0810"6"/6(>67,+".*"1+,1*)*5*OO6O*0,+"+"1*1-+(*".*"655+8-6"
>8+/0/+%"bQ6.6--6(+,-0"655+"8*7*.+"-+(>+86-;8+"*,4+8,65*"*(>0,+"/A+"4+,76">8+.*1>01-0";,",;(+80"1;E_
E*/*+,-+".*"8*>68*"6.+7;6-*">+8"*"78;>>*"4;5,+86)*5*"+"/A+"4+,76,0">80(011+"56"/0,16>+405+OO6"1;55+"/0,.*_
O*0,*"(+-+080507*/A+"644+81+H"10>86--;--0".;86,-+"5+"6--*4*-N"8*/8+6-*4+"655Q6>+8-0H"+";,6"(*75*08+"+.;/6_
O*0,+"16,*-68*6%"@+8"165467;68.68+"56"R;65*-N".+55Q68*6"+"56"165;-+".+55+"4*+"8+1>*86-08*+H"5Q+,+87*6";-*5*OO6-6"
>+8"*5"86EE8+..6(+,-0"0"*5"8*1/65.6(+,-0".+75*"+.*E*/*"+">+8"56"(0)*5*-N".048+))+"+11+8+"56">*`">;5*-6">011*_
)*5+%"
"
!"9"0
+S636C(+')B(C2(+-.88(36*(+-.)+'3+-3'%6+
Cause dei rischi
P"/6()*6(+,-*"/5*(6-*/*"1-6,,0"(0.*E*/6,.0"5+"/0,.*O*0,*">+8"56".*EE;1*0,+"+"56"-861(*11*0,+".*"4+--08*""
G*,1+--*J"+"67+,-*">6-07+,*H"+1-+,.+,.0"5QA6)*-6-".*">08-6-08*".*"(656--*+"/0(+"O+//A+H"O6,O68+"+"E5+)0_
-0(*"+"E6408+,.0,+"56".*EE;1*0,+"+"*5"/0(>08-6(+,-0%"@+8")6()*,*"+."6,O*6,*H"10>86--;--0H"6;(+,-6"/01d"
*5"8*1/A*0".*"(656--*+"-861(+11+".6"4+--08*"Gk7.+,H"!9&KJ%"bQ*,6.+7;6-+OO6".+55+"*,E861-8;--;8+"16,*-68*+"
>+77*086"*5"8*1/A*0"/A+"R;+1-+">6-0507*+">0110,0"64+8+"1;556">0>056O*0,+"*,-+8+116-6%"
Situazione attuale
b+"(656--*+"-861(+11+".655+"O+//A+",+55+"O0,+"*,"/;*"R;+1-*"4+--08*"A6,,0";,6"56876".*EE;1*0,+"10,0"*,",0_
-+405+"6;(+,-0%"b+"O+//A+">0110,0"-861(+--+8+"56"(656--*6".*"bY(+"G=;H"!9&?J"+"56"(+,*,70+,/+E65*-+%"
b+"O6,O68+H"*,">68-*/0568+"5Q'+.+1"65)0>*/-;1H",0-6"6,/A+"/0(+"O6,O686"-*78+H">0110,0"-861(+--+8+"4*8;1"
.+5"-*>0"L+,7;+H"CA*l;,7;,Y6H"S6568*6"+"i*l6%"\+5"!9!#"*,"'5-0"'.*7+"10,0"1-6-*"1+7,656-*"1+--+"/61*".*"
(+,*,7*-+".6"O+//A+H"R;6--80".+*"R;65*"1*"10,0"8*4+56-*"6;-0/-0,*"GFPF@H"!9!$J"Gk5-86.*7+H"S+86,0IX65".*"
\046H"C08-6//*6H"V6*1J%"F0,0"1-6-*".0/;(+,-6-*"6,/A+"1+--+"/61*".*")088+5*01*".*"bY(+%"
F+))+,+"E*,086"*,"'5-0"'.*7+",0,"1*"1*6,0"(6,*E+1-6-+"*,E+O*0,*"6;-0/-0,+H"+1*1-+"56">011*)*5*-N"/A+"56"O6,_
O686".0(+1-*/6"GC;5+e">*>*+,1J"-861(+--6"*5"4*8;1".+5"\*50"0//*.+,-65+"+"5Q31;-;%"'--;65(+,-+"*5"8*1/A*0""
.+8*46">8*,/*>65(+,-+".6"/61*".*"*(>08-6O*0,+"6--864+810"*"4*677*%"\+5"!9!#"*,"'5-0"'.*7+"10,0"1-6-*"8+7*_
1-86-*"1+*"/61*".*"E+))8+"L+,7;+"+".;+"/61*".*"E+))8+".+5"\*50"0//*.+,-65+".*"*(>08-6O*0,+%"bQ6,,0"1/0810"
,0,"/*"10,0"1-6-*"/61*".*"i*l6H"CA*l;,7;,Y6"0"31;-;%"\+5"!9!!"*,"P-65*6"10,0"1-6-*"1+7,656-*"1050"/*,R;+"/61*"
.*"(6568*6".*"*(>08-6O*0,+"GFPF@H"!9!$J%"
b+".*4+81+"1>+/*+".*"E5+)0-0(*"@A5+)0-0(;1">+8,*/*01;1H"@A5+)0-0(;1">+8E*5*+j*"+"@A5+)0-0(;1">6>6-61*"
>0110,0"-861(+--+8+"67+,-*">6-07+,*".+556"5+*1A(6,*01*"0"*5"4*8;1".+556"U01/6,6"GF+(+,O6"+-"65%H"!9!!J%"
\+5"!9!#"["1-6-0"8+7*1-86-0";,"1050"/610".*"(656--*6"-861(+116".6";,"E5+)0-0(0"-861>08-6-0".6";,Q65-86"
8+7*0,+%"
S05-+".*"R;+1-+"(656--*+",0,"4+,70,0"1+7,656-+H"R;*,.*"56"5080"8+65+".*EE;1*0,+"8*1;5-6"10--01-*(6-6%"
Potenziale situazione futura
C0,"5Q646,O68+".+*"/6()*6(+,-*"/5*(6-*/*H"5Q68+6".*".*1-8*);O*0,+".+55+"O+//A+">0-8+))+"+1>6,.+81*H""
.+-+8(*,6,.0";,"*,/8+(+,-0".+556"(656--*6".*"bY(+"+".*"65-8+"*,E+O*0,*%"',/A+"5Q68+6".*".*1-8*);O*0,+"
.+556"(6568*6">0-8+))+"1>01-681*H"+1>0,+,.0"6556"(656--*6",;04*"78;>>*".*">0>056O*0,+%"Z;+1-*"/6()*6_
(+,-*">0-8+))+80"86>>8+1+,-68+";,6"1E*.6"4*1-6"56"1/681+OO6".+55+"8*1081+"+"5Q*,.+)05*(+,-0".+5"1*1-+(6"
16,*-68*0%"b+">8+4*1*0,*"1;*"/6()*6(+,-*"/5*(6-*/*">+8"5QW;80>6"+4*.+,O*6,0"*(>6--*".*4+81*"1;55+"(656--*+"
-861(+11+".6"4+--08*"/0(+"56"CA*l;,7;,Y6H"56"L+,7;+H"56"E+))8+".+5"\*50"0//*.+,-65+H"56"(6568*6H"5+""
(656--*+"-861(+11+".6"O+//A+"/0(+"56")088+5*01*".*"bY(+"+"56"5+*1A(6,*01*%"P"-+(>*".*"-861(*11*0,+".+556"
L+,7;+">0-8+))+80"655;,7681*".*"&_!"(+1*",+55QW;80>6"1;.08*+,-65+%"',/A+"*5"8*1/A*0".*"/0,-8688+"56"E+)_
)8+".+5"\*50"0//*.+,-65+">0-8+))+"6;(+,-68+"6",08._+1-H"(+,-8+"*"-+(>*".*"-861(*11*0,+".+556"(6568*6"
>0-8+))+80"655;,7681*".*"&_!"(+1*",+55QW;80>6"1;._08*+,-65+%"Z;+1-+"1-*(+"10,0"/0(;,R;+"1;1/+--*)*5*".*"
*,/+8-+OO6%"P5"(*75*086(+,-0".+55+"/0,.*O*0,*"/5*(6-*/A+">+8"*"E5+)0-0(*">0-8+))+"/0,-8*);*8+"65".*EE0,_
.+81*".+556"5+*1A(6,*01*H"/A+">0-8+))+"+1-+,.+8+"*5"1;0"68+65+"655QW;80>6"/+,-865+%"C0,"5Q*,-+,1*E*/681*".+*""
/6()*6(+,-*"/5*(6-*/*"56"(*786O*0,+">0-8+))+".*4+,-68+";,6"-+,.+,O6".0(*,6,-+%"V5*"1>01-6(+,-*".*"
(6116">0-8+))+80"10486//68*/68+"5+"*,E861-8;--;8+"16,*-68*+".+*"@6+1*"01>*-6,-*"+">08-68+"6556"
K$"
"
-861(*11*0,+".*"(656--*+"+"6556"/68+,O6".*"8*1081+"(+.*/A+%"P,"611+,O6".*"1*1-+(*".*"1;>>08-0"6.+7;6-*H"*"
>80)5+(*".*"165;-+"(+,-65+".+*"(*786,-*"6;(+,-+8+))+80%"
Potenziale di adattamento
b+"1-86-+7*+".*"6.6--6(+,-0"8*/A*+.0,0";,6"/00>+86O*0,+"*,-+8,6O*0,65+H";,6"(*75*08+"/6>6/*-N".*"E80,_
-+77*68+"*".*161-8*"+"(*1;8+"*,-+786-+">+8"8*1>0,.+8+"655+"+1*7+,O+"16,*-68*+".+*"(*786,-*H"(6"56"1/681*-N".*"
8*1081+H"*(>+.*(+,-*">05*-*/*"+"-+,1*0,*"10/*0_/;5-;865*"*,-865/*6,0"*5">+8/0810"4+810";,"6.6--6(+,-0"+EE*_
/6/+%"C0,/*5*68+"75*"*,-+8+11*".+55+">0>056O*0,*"50/65*"+".+556">0>056O*0,+"(*786,-+"[";,"68.;0"/0(>*-0"+"
,+/+11*-6".*"/00>+86O*0,+"6"5*4+550"750)65+">+8"-80468+"105;O*0,*"101-+,*)*5*%"
b+"1-86-+7*+".*"6.6--6(+,-0"/0(>8+,.0,0"*"1*1-+(*".*"655+8-6">8+/0/+"+"*5"(0,*-08677*0".+*"4+--08*".+55+"
(656--*+"G4+--08*JH"(6"56"1/681*-N".*"8*1081+H"56"(6,/6,O6".*"*,E861-8;--;8+"+"5+"8+1-8*O*0,*"E*,6,O*68*+"*,-865_
/*6,0"56"1-86.6%"^"E0,.6(+,-65+"8*;1/*8+"6"/0,/*5*68+"5+"(*1;8+".*"/0,-80550".+*"4+--08*H"+4*-6,.0,+"56""
E08(6O*0,+".*"E0/056*%""
"
!"9"5
+T'/-?'+)6*:863'+(+6C2'*K+8'-8(642(++
Cause dei rischi
P5"(;-6(+,-0".+*"(0.+55*".*">8+/*>*-6O*0,+".04;-0"6*"/6()*6(+,-*"/5*(6-*/*"*,E5;+,O6"56"1-6)*5*-N".+5"
(6,-0",+4010"+"6;(+,-6"*5"8*1/A*0".*"4656,7A+"GF-86>6OO0,"+-"65%H"!9!&m"M8;77+8"+-"65%H"!9&!JH"10>86-_
-;--0",+55+"8+7*0,*"(0,-6,+H"/0(>80(+--+,.0"56"1*/;8+OO6".+55+"6--*4*-N"8*/8+6-*4+"655Q6>+8-0%"b6"468*6_
O*0,+".+*"(0.+55*"/5*(6-*/*"GW)*"+-"65%H"!9!&J .+-+8(*,6"*,05-8+";,"*,/8+(+,-0".+*"E+,0(+,*"(+-+080507*/*"
+1-8+(*H"/0(+"E86,+H"/6.;-6".*"(611*"+"655;4*0,*H"/A+"A6,,0";,"*(>6--0"1*7,*E*/6-*40"1;556"165;-+"+"6//8+_
1/0,0"*5"8*1/A*0".*">80)5+(*"/088+56-*"/0,"*5"E8+..0"R;65*"5Q*>0-+8(*6"+"5+"5+1*0,*".6"/0,7+56(+,-0"GM8;77+8"
+-"65%H"!9&!J%""
Situazione attuale
\+55+"8+7*0,*"6"8*1/A*0".*"6))0,.6,-*",+4*/6-+"+"01/*556O*0,*"-+8(*/A+"1*"4+8*E*/6,0"1+(>8+">*`"E8+R;+,-+_
(+,-+"E+,0(+,*"/0(+"5+"4656,7A+H"/A+"1*"8*>+8/;0-0,0"1;75*"1>08-"*,4+8,65*"+"1;55+"*,E861-8;--;8+H""
(+--+,.0"*,">+8*/050"4*-+";(6,+"+"6".;86">8046"*"1*1-+(*".*"+(+87+,O6"-+88*-08*65+%""
'5/;,+"68++"65>*,+"10,0"7*N"1-6-+"/05>*-+H"/0(+"56"S68(056.6",+55Q+1-6-+".+5"!9!!"GM0,.+16,"x"<86,_
/+1+H"!9!#J"1;)+,.0".6,,*"+"*,-+88;O*0,*"655+"*,E861-8;--;8+"+",;(+801*"(08-*"+"E+8*-*%"
Potenziale situazione futura
C0,"5Q646,O68+".+*"/6()*6(+,-*"/5*(6-*/*">0-8+))+"6;(+,-68+"56"E8+R;+,O6"+"5Q*(>8+4+.*)*5*-N".+55+""
4656,7A+"GM8;77+8"+-"65%H"!9&!JH"/0,";,"/0,1+7;+,-+"*,/8+(+,-0".+55+"/A*6(6-+".*"+(+87+,O+"*,"68++"
4;5,+86)*5*"655Q6>+8-0H"1*6">+8"56">0>056O*0,+"50/65+"/A+">+8"*"-;8*1-*%"b+"/0,1+7;+,O+">0-8+))+80";5-+8*08_
(+,-+"677864681*">+8"56"1/681*-N".*"8*1081+".*1>0,*)*5*",+55+"0>+86O*0,*".*"10//0810%"Z;+1-*".*161-8*",0,"
1050">8040/6,0"4*--*(+"+"E+8*-*H"(6"10--0>0,70,0"6,/A+"*5"1*1-+(6"16,*-68*0"6";,6">8+11*0,+"+//+11*46H"
10>86--;--0"*,"/610".*"*,/*.+,-*"*,"(6116"/A+"/0*,40570,0">*`"E+8*-*%"P5">+810,65+".+5"10//0810"65>*,0"GF'TJ"
.+4+"+11+8+"*,"786.0".*"E80,-+77*68+"56".*EE*/05-N"6()*+,-65*H"E08,*8+"611*1-+,O6"16,*-68*6"*,"-+(>*")8+4*"+"
/0,"8*1081+"5*(*-6-+"GM8;77+8"+-"65%H"!9&!m"S*56,*"+-"65%H"!9!#JH"/016"/A+">;h"64+8+";,"*(>6--0",+76-*40"
1;5")+,+11+8+"(+,-65+".+*"10//088*-08*"GFƒ405."+-"65%H"!9!&J%"
Potenziale di adattamento
b6"1-86-+7*6".*"6.6--6(+,-0",+55+"68++"6"8*1/A*0"4656,7A+"8*/A*+.+";,6"(*75*08+">8+>686O*0,+",+75*"1>08-"
8*/8+6-*4*"+".+5">+810,65+"16,*-68*0"/0*,405-0",+55+"6--*4*-N".*"10//0810"65>*,0H",0,/Ac"56"8*/+8/6"+"50""
14*5;>>0".*",;04*".*1>01*-*4*".*">80-+O*0,+"G@80/-+8"+-"65%H"!9&?m"T6;/A"+-"65%H"!9!&m"F+(+,O6"+-"65%H"!9!!m"
F-86>6OO0,"+-"65%H"!9&Km"F-86>6OO0,"x"M8;77+8H"!9&BJ"(6"68++"*1056-+"+".*EE*/*5*".6"8677*;,7+8+">0110,0"
/0,-861-68,+"5Q+EE*/6/*6%"^"R;*,.*"E0,.6(+,-65+"*(>+7,681*"6"5*4+550"50/65+">+8"E68"E80,-+"6556"/8+1/+,-+"
(*,6//*6".*".*161-8*"/088+56-*"/0,"*5"/5*(6"+"65"5080"*(>6--0"1;556"165;-+">;))5*/6%"P"1*1-+(*".*"655+8-6">8+_
/0/+">+8"*"E+,0(+,*"(+-+080507*/*"+1-8+(*".048+))+80"+11+8+"/01-6,-+(+,-+"*(>5+(+,-6-*"+"*,-+786-*"
,+*">*6,*".*">80-+O*0,+"/*4*5+%"P"8+7*1-8*"*,-+8,6O*0,65*"GA-->1DIIjjj%(0;,-6*,_8+7*1-8*+1%087J"/0,1+,-0,0"
.*"86//075*+8+"1*1-+(6-*/6(+,-+"*".6-*"1;55+"1-86-+7*+".*">8*(0"10//0810"1;5">01-0"+"*,"01>+.65+%"
K:"
"
'..+1-868+"*5">+810,65+".+5"10//0810"65>*,0"6"7+1-*8+"75*"*,/*.+,-*".*"(6116">;h"/0,-8*);*8+"6">8+4+,*8+"5+"
(656--*+">1*/A*/A+"+"6."6;(+,-68+"56"8+1*5*+,O6"GFƒ405."+-"65%H"!9!&J%"
"
!"9"!
$-Q:6+(+%636C(+63'%()*68'++
Cause dei rischi
'"/6;16".+55+"468*6O*0,*",+*"(0.+55*".*">8+/*>*-6O*0,+"+"675*"+EE+--*"/A+"*5"/6()*6(+,-0"/5*(6-*/0"1-6"
64+,.0"1;550"1/*075*(+,-0".+55+",+4*"+"1;55+"E0,-*".Q6/R;6",+55+"8+7*0,*"65>*,+"GA-->1DII*>//*-65*6%/(//%*-JH"
56".*1>0,*)*5*-N".*"6/R;6".+1-*,6-0"6";1*"65*(+,-68*"+"678*/05*">0-8+))+"8*1;5-68+"65-+86-6%"b6"R;65*-N")6--+_
8*0507*/6".+55Q6/R;6">0-6)*5+">;h"4+,*8+"/0(>80(+116".6*"(*/80876,*1(*"/A+"1*"(05-*>5*/6,0"6"-+(>+86_
-;8+">*`"+5+46-+H"/0,"8*>+8/;11*0,*"6,/A+"1;75*"65*(+,-*"+";,">011*)*5+"6;(+,-0".+55+"*,E+O*0,*".*"08*7*,+"
65*(+,-68+"G6."+1%"56"165(0,+556J%"P5"/65.0"+1-8+(0"+"5+"1/681+">8+/*>*-6O*0,*">0110,0"*,E6--*"*,/*.+8+""
1*7,*E*/6-*46(+,-+"1;556">80.;O*0,+"65*(+,-68+H"E6/+,.0"6;(+,-68+"*5">8+OO0".*"E8;--6"+"4+8.;86"+""
8+,.+,.0"/01d">*`".*EE*/*5+"65*(+,-681*"*,"(0.0"16,0"+",;-8*+,-+"Gb+(+8Y"x"';+8)6/AH"!9&KJ%"
Situazione attuale
<*,086"*,"'5-0"'.*7+"*5">80)5+(6".+556"/68+,O6".Q6/R;6".;86,-+"*">+8*0.*".*">805;,76-6"1*//*-N"["1-6-0""
1>+8*(+,-6-0"1050"(0.+86-6(+,-+"+",0,"86>>8+1+,-6"6,/086";,6"(*,6//*6">+8"56"10>8644*4+,O6%"\0,"
10,0"(6*"(6,/6-+"6/R;6">0-6)*5+"0"1/08-+"65*(+,-68*%"W>>;8+H"+1*1-+";,"/0,E5*--0".*";-*5*OO0"-86"678*/05_
-;86H"-;8*1(0H"+/0,0(*6H"+//%">+8"R;6,-0"8*7;68.6"56"8*10816"6/R;6">0-6)*5+%"
Potenziale situazione futura
\+5"/0810".+*"/6()*6(+,-*"/5*(6-*/*"[">8+4*1-0"/A+"5Q6/R;6"*,*O*"6"1/681+77*68+"6,/A+",+55+"8+7*0,*"65>*,+%"
b6">0>056O*0,+"+"5Q+/0,0(*6"/A+".*>+,.+".65"-;8*1(0">0-8+))+80"8*1+,-*8+".+556"(*,08+".*1>0,*)*5*-N".*"
6/R;6">804+,*+,-+".+*"7A*6//*6*%"P5"(;-6(+,-0".+55+"1-67*0,*".*"4+7+-6O*0,+"+"56".*(*,;O*0,+".+*"86//05-*"
>0-8+))+80"(+--+8+"6"8+>+,-675*0"56"1*/;8+OO6"65*(+,-68+%"
Possibilità di adattamento, ostacoli e limiti
b+"(*1;8+".*"6.6--6(+,-0"/0(>8+,.0,0";,6"7+1-*0,+"+EE*/*+,-+".+55Q6/R;6"*,"678*/05-;86"+",+5"-;8*1(0%"
V5*"65*(+,-*".+>+8*)*5*".+40,0"+11+8+"/0,1+846-*"+"86EE8+..6-*"6.+7;6-6(+,-+%"
"
Sommario – Rischi principali
a T*1/A*0".*"1-8+11".6"/6508+"+".6"E8+..0"+".*"*,R;*,6(+,-0"6-(01E+8*/0"6"/6;16".*"/65.0"+"E8+..0"
+1-8+(*"
a T*1/A*0".*"(656--*+"*,E+--*4+"5+76-+"65"/5*(6"6"/6;16".+55Q6;(+,-0".+55+"-+(>+86-;8+"
a T*1/A*0".*"6;(+,-0".+*".*161-8*",6-;865*"+".+55+"+(+87+,O+"655Q6>+8-0"6"/6;16".*"E+,0(+,*""
(+-+080507*/*"+1-8+(*"
a T*1/A*0".*"(656--*+"-861(+11+".655Q6/R;6"+".675*"65*(+,-*"6"/6;16".+55Q6;(+,-0".+55+"-+(>+86_
-;8+"
"
Bibliografia
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1371–1390. https://doi.org/10.1007/s40121-022-00647-3
– SISP, D. für H. und öffentliche G., 2024. Betrieblicher Jahresbericht zu den Vektorübertragenen Krankheiten: Zecken, Mü-
cken, Sandmücken für das Jahr 2023. Südtiroler Sanitätsbetrieb, Bozen, Italien.
– Søvold, L.E., Naslund, J.A., Kousoulis, A.A., Saxena, S., Qoronfleh, M.W., Grobler, C., Münter, L., 2021. Prioritizing the Mental
Health and Well-Being of Healthcare Workers: An Urgent Global Public Health Priority. Front. Public Health 9, 679397.
https://doi.org/10.3389/fpubh.2021.679397
– Strapazzon, G., Brugger, H., 2018. On-Site Treatment of Snow Avalanche Victims: From Bench to Mountainside. High Alt.
Med. Biol. 19, 307–315. https://doi.org/10.1089/ham.2018.0036
– Strapazzon, G., Paal, P., Schweizer, J., Falk, M., Reuter, B., Schenk, K., Gatterer, H., Grasegger, K., Dal Cappello, T., Malacrida,
S., Riess, L., Brugger, H., 2017. Effects of snow properties on humans breathing into an artificial air pocket – an experimental
field study. Sci. Rep. 7, 17675. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-017-17960-4
KK"
"
– Strapazzon, G., Schweizer, J., Chiambretti, I., Brodmann Maeder, M., Brugger, H., Zafren, K., 2021. Effects of Climate Change
on Avalanche Accidents and Survival. Front. Physiol. 12, 639433. https://doi.org/10.3389/fphys.2021.639433
– Ströhle, M., Rauch, S., Lastei, P., Brodmann Maeder, M., Brugger, H., Paal, P., 2018. Frostbite Injuries in the Austrian Alps: A
Retrospective 11-Year National Registry Study. High Alt. Med. Biol. 19, 316–320. https://doi.org/10.1089/ham.2018.0060
– Servizio di ambulanza dell'Alto Adige, 2024: Rapporto operativo annuale sulle malattie trasmesse da vettori: Zecche, zan-
zare, mosche della sabbia per l'anno 2023
KB"
"
4.6
Turismo
Autore: Philipp Corradini
"
Figura 20: Catena degli impatti che illustra i pericoli, l'esposizione e la vulnerabilità del settore turistico
"
Introduzione
P5"-;8*1(0"[".*"E0,.6(+,-65+"*(>08-6,O6">+8"5Q+/0,0(*6".+55Q'5-0"'.*7+H"/A+">8+1+,-6H"8*1>+--0"655+"65-8+"
8+7*0,*"65>*,+H"56">*`"65-6".+,1*-N".*"1-8;--;8+"8*/+--*4+"+";,Q6--*4*-N"-;8*1-*/6"(05-0"*,-+,16"G'FU'UH"!9!#J%"
<*,086"*,"'5-0"'.*7+"75*"+EE+--*".+*"/6()*6(+,-*"/5*(6-*/*"10,0">+8/+>*)*5*"10>86--;--0",+556"1-67*0,+""
*,4+8,65+"/A+"*,"R;+556"+1-*46%"V*N"6.+110H"5+">8+/*>*-6O*0,*",+401+"10,0"*,E+8*08*"8*1>+--0"655+"8+7*0,*""
65>*,+"1+--+,-8*0,65*"+"/0,-*,;6,0"6".*(*,;*8+"6"/6;16".+556"-+(>+86-;86%"Z;+1-6"+405;O*0,+"A6";,""
*(>6--0",+76-*40"1*6"1;55+">011*)*5*-N".*"*,,+46(+,-0"-+/,*/0"1*6"1;55Q61>+--0".+5">6+1677*0"*,4+8,65+""
,6-;865+%"\0,01-6,-+"75*"+EE+--*".+5"/6()*6(+,-0"/5*(6-*/0"1;550"1/*"+"1;5"-;8*1(0"*,4+8,65+H"*,"E;-;80""
>0-8+))+"+11+8+"*5"-;8*1(0"+1-*40"6">68O*65(+,-+">8+1+8468+"56"8+..*-*4*-N".+55+"E;,*4*+%"P"(+1*"E6408+405*"
.65">;,-0".*"4*1-6"/5*(6-*/0">0-8+))+80"655;,7681*"*,"+1-6-+H"(+,-8+"1*"6//08/+8+))+"56"1-67*0,+"*,4+8_
,65+%"'"/6;16".+*"/6()*6(+,-*"/5*(6-*/*">0-8+))+80">+8h"6;(+,-68+"8*1/A*"7+0507*/*"/0(+"E86,+"+"/6.;-+"
.*"(611*H"6;(+,-6,.0"*"8*1/A*"1*6">+8"75*"01>*-*"/A+">+8"5+"*,E861-8;--;8+%"
" "
Aumento del numero
di persone esposte
Esterno: ad esempio, più turisti
internazionali, maggiori aspettative
sugli standard, aumento delle
emissioni e del consumo di risorse.
Riduzione della
qualità della vita per
la popolazione locale;
riduzione dellʼattegg-
iamento favorevole
verso il turismo
Danni alle
infrastrutture
turistiche
Sicurezza dei
turisti nella
stagione
estiva
Diminuzione
dellʼattrattiv-
ità del
turismo
invernale
Sicurezza dei
turisti nella
stagione
invernale
Sovraccarico del
sistema sanitario
pubblico e delle
infrastrutture di
mobilità nelle destina-
zioni turistiche
Aumento delle tempera-
ture e del calore, siccità
Pioggia forte e più intensa
Legame con i rischi climatici: Biodiversità, gestione delle acque, insediamenti, salute, economia
Turismo invernalea Turismo
estivo
Infrastrutture
turistiche
Popolazione Servizi per la salute e la
mobilità
Turismo
Carenza dʼacqua
Riduzione della
sicurezza della neve,
delle possibilità di
innevamento articiale
e della durata della
stagione sciistica alle
quote inferiori < 1600m
Spostamento dei
ussi turistici
invernali e della
neve verso le aree
attualmente
innevate
Aumento degli
smottamenti, delle
frane, della caduta di
massi, delle inondazi-
oni, del disgelo del
permafrost.
Aumento dei
costi gestionali
Mancanza di
alternative al
turismo sciistico
Calore: salute e
malessere
Carenza dʼacqua
Prolungamento
della stagione estiva
Più turisti
(spostamento
da altre
destinazioni)
Mancanza di consapevolezza del
cambiamento climatico e delle
sue conseguenze tra i turisti
Aumento del consumo di acqua
dovuto al turismo (innevamento,
wellness, ...)
Aumento dell'impermeabilizzazio-
ne e del consumo del territorio a
causa delle infrastrutture turistiche
Insuciente orientamento verso
un turismo sostenibile, adattato
al clima e neutrale dal punto di
vista climatico
Pericoli legati al clima
Impatti climatici
Sistemi esposti
Vulnerabilità, fattori di rischio non climatici
Rischio principale con necessità di intervento
urgente alto medio
K2"
"
!"R"#
U:8'/%.+')2(8)63(++
Cause dei rischi
F*6",+55+"'5>*"/A+"*,"'5-0"'.*7+H"*"/6()*6(+,-*"/5*(6-*/*"A6,,0";,Q*,E5;+,O6"10>86--;--0"1;5"-;8*1(0"*,4+8_
,65+"GF-+*7+8"+-"65%H"!9&2J%"bQ6;(+,-0".+55+"-+(>+86-;8+"+"56"468*6)*5*-N".+55+">8+/*>*-6O*0,*"1*"8*>+8/;0_
-0,0",+76-*46(+,-+"1;556"/0>+8-;86",+4016"+"R;*,.*"1;556">011*)*5*-N".*">86-*/68+"1>08-"*,4+8,65*%"bQ6--86-_
-*46".+75*"1>08-"*,4+8,65*".*>+,.+"*,">8*(0"5;070".675*"*(>*6,-*"-+/,*/*".*"*,,+46(+,-0H"(6"*,">68-+""
6,/A+".6";,">6+1677*0"*,4+8,65+"*,,+46-0",6-;865(+,-+%"
Situazione attuale
'5/;,*"+EE+--*".+5"/6()*6(+,-0"/5*(6-*/0"10,0"4*1*)*5*"7*N".6"077*H"/0(+"5Q6;(+,-0".+556"-+(>+86-;86"
,+55+".+1-*,6O*0,*"-;8*1-*/A+"E*,0"6"&%:99"(+-8*"+";,6"7+,+865+"65-+86O*0,+".+55+">8+/*>*-6O*0,*"*,4+8,65*H"
/0(+",+556"1-67*0,+"*,4+8,65+"!9!!I!#%"\+55Q*,4+8,0"!9!!"["1-6-6"8*5+46-6"56"1+/0,.6">*`")6116"/0>+8-;86"
,+4016",+5">+8*0.0"!99#"_"!9!!",+55+"8+7*0,*"65".*"10--0".+*"&%999"(+-8*"+"56"R;68-6">*`")6116",+55+"8+_
7*0,*"-86"*"&%999"+"*"!%999"(+-8*"GW;86/"T+1+68/AH"!9!#)J"G/E8%"6,/A+ cap. 3J%"P,05-8+H".65"&2B9"*5",;(+80".*"
7*08,6-+".*"7+50"[".*(*,;*-0"6"-;--+"5+"65-*-;.*,*"GW;86/"T+1+68/AH"!9!#6J"G/E8%"6,/A+ cap. 3J%"'--;65(+,-+"
["5Q*,,+46(+,-0"-+/,*/0"6"7686,-*8+"56"(677*08">68-+".+55+"6--*4*-N"1>08-*4+"*,4+8,65*%"bQ*(>6--0"+/0,0_
(*/0".+*"/6()*6(+,-*"/5*(6-*/*"1;55+"6--*4*-N"1/**1-*/A+">;h"+11+8+"1-*(6-0";-*5*OO6,.0"56"f8+7056".+*"&99"
7*08,*gH"1+/0,.0"56"R;65+";,6"1-6O*0,+"1/**1-*/6"/0,";,"*,,+46(+,-0"6EE*.6)*5+".048+))+"64+8+";,6"/0_
>+8-;86",+4016"1;EE*/*+,-+">+8"65(+,0"&99"7*08,*"6"1-67*0,+"*,"1+--+"*,4+8,*"1;".*+/*"G')+77H"&22?m""
z*-(+8H"&2B?J%"'--;65(+,-+"56">+8/+,-;65+".*">*1-+"/0>+8-+".6",+4+"68-*E*/*65+"[".+5"!:"q"*,"V+8(6,*6H"
.+5"#2"q"*,"<86,/*6H".+5":$"q"*,"F4*OO+86H".+5"K9"q"*,"';1-8*6"+".+5"29"q"*,"P-65*6"G@804*,/*6".*"M05O6,0J"
G'FU'UH"!9!!m"F+*5)6A,+,"F/Aj+*OH"!9!!J%"P5"8*1/A*0".*"4656,7A+"1;55+"'5>*"["*,05-8+"6;(+,-6-0"1*7,*E*/6-*_
46(+,-+"6"/6;16".+55Q*,1-6)*5*-N"7+,+86-6".6*"/6()*6(+,-*"/5*(6-*/*"Gi7A+*)"+-"65%H"!9!!J%"
Potenziale situazione futura
F+/0,.0"5+">8+4*1*0,*H"*,"E;-;80"R;+1-*"+EE+--*"1*"*,-+,1*E*/A+86,,0H"6;(+,-+8N"6,/A+"56"468*6)*5*-N".+55+"
>8+/*>*-6O*0,*H"/A+",0,",+/+1168*6(+,-+">;h"-86.;81*"*,";,6"(6,/6,O6".*">8+/*>*-6O*0,*H"(6"6,/A+"*,""
*,4+8,*".655+">8+/*>*-6O*0,*"*,-+,1+H"/0,";,"*(>6--0",+76-*40"1;556"/6>6/*-N".*">*6,*E*/68+"5+"6--*4*-N"-;8*_
1-*/A+"*,4+8,65*H"6."+1%"6"/6;16".*";,6"/0>+8-;86",+4016"*,1;EE*/*+,-+"1;55+">*1-+".6"1/*"6"*,*O*0"1-67*0,+H".*"
.*EE*/05-N",+556">80.;O*0,+".*",+4+">+8"5+"-+(>+86-;8+">*`"+5+46-+"+".*";,"(*,08",;(+80".*"7*08,6-+".*"
7+50"GW;86/"T+1+68/AH"!9!#6H"!9!#)J"G/E8%"6,/A+ cap. 3J%"',/A+"5Q6//;86-+OO6".+55+">8+4*1*0,*"(+-+08050_
7*/A+">0-8+))+"8*1;5-68+"/0(>80(+116%"U;--0"R;+1-0">;h"64+8+"/0(+"/0,1+7;+,O+"(0.*E*/A+"+"/6,/+5_
56O*0,*".+55+">8+,0-6O*0,*"655Q;5-*(0"(*,;-0H"/A+"6"5080"405-6"1*">0110,0"8*>+8/;0-+8+",+76-*46(+,-+"1;*"
E5;11*"-;8*1-*/*"GF/0--"+-"65%H"!9&!J%"
Potenziale di adattamento
b+".+1-*,6O*0,*"-;8*1-*/A+"/A+"6--;65(+,-+">0110,0"0EE8*8+",+4+"7686,-*-6">0-8+))+80"6--*868+"-;8*1-*".6"
.+1-*,6O*0,*".04+"56",+4+"["(+,0">8+1+,-+H"/0,"/0,1+7;+,-+"6;(+,-0".+5"-86EE*/0H".+5"8*1/A*0".*"*,/*_
.+,-*"1;55+">*1-+"+".+556">8+11*0,+"1;5"1*1-+(6"16,*-68*0"+."+/0507*/0"50/65+%"
b+".+1-*,6O*0,*"-;8*1-*/A+"*,"/;*"56",+4+"["(+,0"6EE*.6)*5+"1686,,0"-+,;-+"6"+4*-68+"8*1/A*01*"*,4+1-*(+,-*"
>+8"*(>*6,-*".*"*,,+46(+,-0%"3,6"(*1;86".*"6.6--6(+,-0">0-8+))+"/0,1*1-+8+",+556".*4+81*E*/6O*0,+"
.+55Q0EE+8-6H"6."+1%"6(>5*6,.0"5+"6--*4*-N"/A+"8*/A*+.0,0"(+,0"*,E861-8;--;8+"+"8*1081+H"/0(+"50"1/*".*"
E0,.0"+"5Q+1/;81*0,*1(0"*,4+8,65+%"',/A+"R;6,.0"1*"+1>6,.0,0"6--*4*-N"/A+",0,".*>+,.0,0".655+"/0,.*_
O*0,*"(+-+0H"/0(+"*5"j+55,+11H")*107,+8+))+"E68+"6--+,O*0,+"65"/0,1;(0".*"8*1081+%"b+".+1-*,6O*0,*""
-;8*1-*/A+"/A+",0,"10,0"*,"786.0".*"0EE8*8+");0,+"/0,.*O*0,*".*"*,,+46(+,-0"10,0"/A*6(6-+"6">80(;0_
4+8+";,"8*08*+,-6(+,-0".+556"5080"0EE+8-6"-;8*1-*/6"4+810"*5"-;8*1(0"+1-*40"+"1-67*0,*")611+"+"6"14*5;>>68+"
+">;))5*/*OO68+"5+"8+56-*4+"6--*4*-N"+">80.0--*%"X*+,+"/01d"6"8*.;81*"56".*>+,.+,O6".65"-;8*1(0"*,4+8,65+".*"
R;+1-+".+1-*,6O*0,*H";,0"14*5;>>0"/A+">0-8+))+"+11+8+"*.+65(+,-+"/0()*,6-0"/0,";,"8+*,.*8*OO6(+,-0"
4+810"65-8*"1+--08*"+/0,0(*/*"(+,0".*>+,.+,-*".655+"/0,.*O*0,*"(+-+080507*/A+%"
"
B9"
"
!"R"0
U:8'/%.+(/42.+++
Cause dei rischi
P5"-;8*1(0"+1-*40",+55+"8+7*0,*"(0,-6,+"+".*"4655+"1*".048N"/0,E80,-68+"/0,"5Q*,,65O6(+,-0".+55+"-+(>+86_
-;8+H"5Q*,/8+(+,-0".+556"468*6)*5*-N".+55+">8+/*>*-6O*0,*"+"5Q6;(+,-0".+*"E+,0(+,*"(+-+080507*/*"+1-8+(*"+"
.+*"8*1/A*",6-;865*".04;-*"675*"+EE+--*".+5"/6()*6(+,-0"/5*(6-*/0%"
Situazione attuale
V5*"+EE+--*".+*"/6()*6(+,-*"/5*(6-*/*".04;-*"655Q6;(+,-0".+55+"-+(>+86-;8+",+55+"68++"(0,-6,+"10,0"
1>+110"6110/*6-*"6"8*>+8/;11*0,*">01*-*4+">+8"*5"-;8*1(0"+1-*40H"6."+1%">+8"*5">011*)*5+">805;,76(+,-0".+55+"
1-67*0,*"/5*(6-*/6(+,-+"E6408+405*"655+"6--*4*-N"+1-*4+"/0(+"5Q+1/;81*0,*1(0H"5Q6886(>*/6-6H"*5"/*/5*1(0"+"*5"
/6(>+77*0"GW,.5+8"x"S6-O686l*1H"!9&&m"@8‚)1-5_=6*.+8"+-"65%H"!9!&J%"3,"65-80"E6--08+"/0,,+110"655+"-+(_
>+86-;8+H"*5"R;65+">;h"E6408*8+";,">80)6)*5+"6;(+,-0".+*"E5;11*"-;8*1-*/*"+1-*4*",+55+"8+7*0,*"(0,-6,+"[""
8*/0,.;/*)*5+"6556"fE;76".65"/65.0g".655+"68++";8)6,+"+"6556"8*,61/*-6".+5"-86.*O*0,65+"/0,/+--0".*"fF0(_
(+8E8*1/A+gH"-86.;/*)*5+"/0,"fE8+1/;86"+1-*46g"Go;1/A-+,"+-"65%H"!9&2m"F*+78*1-"x"V+11,+8H"!9&&J%""
Potenziale situazione futura
P,"+1-6-+",+55+"68++"(0,-6,+H"10>86--;--0"655+"R;0-+">*`"+5+46-+H"*">+8*/05*",6-;865*"6;(+,-6,0"+"5Q6//+1_
1*)*5*-N"1;)*1/+".+55+"468*6O*0,*"/A+"8+,.0,0"*5"8*1/A*0">*`"1*7,*E*/6-*40%"P5"8*-*80".+*"7A*6//*6*"+"*5".*17+50".+5"
>+8(6E801-">0110,0"8+,.+8+">*`"1/01/+1*"*">+,.**".*"7A*6//*0"+"80//*6"+".+1-6)*5*OO68+"5+"(08+,+"/0,";,"
/0,1+7;+,-+"6;(+,-0".+5"8*1/A*0".*"/056-+".+-8*-*/A+"+"/6.;-+".*"(611*",0,/Ac";,";5-+8*08+"*,780116_
(+,-0".+55Q6//;(;50".*".+-8*-*"1;55+"1;>+8E*/*".+*"7A*6//*6*"GS0;8+Y"+-"65%H"!9&2J"(/E8%"6,/A+ cap. 3J%"P""
-;8*1-*"/A+">86-*/6,0"6--*4*-N"+1-*4+"/0(+"5Q65>*,*1(0"+"5Q6886(>*/6-6"10,0"R;*,.*"+1>01-*"6";,"8*1/A*0"
(677*08+%"P,"R;+1-0"/0,-+1-0"6;(+,-6"6,/A+"56">80)6)*5*-N".*".6,,+77*6(+,-*".+55+"*,E861-8;--;8+">+8"*5"
-+(>0"5*)+80H"/0(+"*"1+,-*+8*"+1/;81*0,*1-*/*"+"5+"1-86.+".*"6//+110"GV8;)+8"+-"65%H"!99$J%"
Potenziale di adattamento
X68*68+"75*"0868*".*"6>+8-;86">8*,/*>65*",+55+"8+7*0,*"(0,-6,+H">01-*/*>6,.05*H"8*.;/+,.05*"0">805;,76,.05*H"
[";,Q*(>08-6,-+"(*1;86".*"6.6--6(+,-0"*,"8+56O*0,+"65"/6()*6(+,-0".+55+"/0,.*O*0,*"+".+*"E5;11*".*""
4*1*-6-08*%"F+,1*)*5*OO68+"75*"01>*-*"8*1>+--0"6556"465;-6O*0,+".+*"8*1/A*"+"655+",08(+".*"/0(>08-6(+,-0".6"
1+7;*8+"*,"(0,-67,6">;h"8*.;88+"65"(*,*(0"75*"*,/*.+,-*%"P5"(0,*-08677*0".+*"E5;11*"-;8*1-*/*"/0,1+,-+".*"
8+67*8+"655+"E5;--;6O*0,*"1-67*0,65*"+".*"14*5;>>68+"6.+7;6-+"1-86-+7*+"+"(*1;8+".*"/0(;,*/6O*0,+%"bQ*,-+_
786O*0,+".*"R;+1-+"*,E08(6O*0,*",+*">*6,*".*">80-+O*0,+"/*4*5+"+",+5"1*1-+(6"16,*-68*0"["E0,.6(+,-65+"6*"
E*,*".*"7686,-*8+"56"1*/;8+OO6".+75*"01>*-*"+".+556">0>056O*0,+"50/65+"+">+8"+4*-68+"10486//68*/A*H"10>86--;--0"
.;86,-+"5Q65-6"1-67*0,+"-;8*1-*/6%"
"
!"R"5
O)B86/*8:L:8(+,'+/:==.8*.+(+*:8'/4-?(+(+8'-(C2'*K+++
Cause dei rischi
WEE+--*"+"8*1/A*".*>+,.0,0H"-86"5Q65-80H".655Q6;(+,-0".+55+"-+(>+86-;8+%"P,05-8+H"56"/8+1/+,-+"468*6)*5*-N"
.+55+">8+/*>*-6O*0,*"E6"1d"/A+"56"5080"R;6,-*-N"+".*1-8*);O*0,+"1-*6".*4+,-6,.0"(+,0">8+4+.*)*5+H"/0,"8*>+8_
/;11*0,*"6,/A+"1;556".*1>0,*)*5*-N".*"6/R;6%"bQ6;(+,-0".+*"E+,0(+,*"(+-+080507*/*"+1-8+(*"+".+*">+8*/05*"
,6-;865*H"/0(+"-+(>+1-+H"*,0,.6O*0,*"+"E86,+H"/0(>08-6"/0,1*.+8+405*"8*1/A*">+8"5+"8+7*0,*"/05>*-+%"
Situazione attuale
b+"*,E861-8;--;8+"-;8*1-*/A+"/0(>8+,.0,0"+5+(+,-*";-*5*OO6-*"1*6".675*"01>*-*"/A+".6556">0>056O*0,+"50/65+H"
-86"/;*"5+"*,E861-8;--;8+">+8"*5"-+(>0"5*)+80"G*,.008"+"0;-.008J"+"R;+55+".*"-861>08-0%"b+"1-8;--;8+"8*/+--*4+"
.+40,0"6EE80,-68+"1E*.+">68670,6)*5*"6"R;+55+".+55+"*,E861-8;--;8+"+".+75*"*,1+.*6(+,-*",0,"-;8*1-*/*H".0_
4+,.0"7686,-*8+";,"/5*(6"*,-+8,0"6.+7;6-0"1*6"*,"*,4+8,0"/A+"*,"+1-6-+"+"0EE8*8+">80-+O*0,+".6">+8*/05*"
,6-;865*%"bQ'5-0"'.*7+"A6">+8"-86.*O*0,+"56">*`"65-6".+,1*-N".*"1-8;--;8+"8*/+--*4+"8*1>+--0"655+"8+7*0,*"65>*,+"
/0,E*,6,-*%"
B&"
"
P"/6()*6(+,-*"/5*(6-*/*">0110,0">8040/68+".6,,*".*8+--*"655+"*,E861-8;--;8+H"6."+1%"6"/6;16".*"E+,0(+,*"
(+-+080507*/*"+1-8+(*"+">+8*/05*",6-;865*"/0(+"E86,+"+"786,.*,+H"0"8+,.+8+">*`".*EE*/*5+"5Q6//+110"655+""
*,E861-8;--;8+"4*1-6"56"/8+1/+,-+"*,1-6)*5*-N"7+0507*/6".+55+"4*+".*"6//+110%"P,"R;+1-0"/0,-+1-0"46"*,.*/6-0"
/A+"5+"*,E861-8;--;8+"-;8*1-*/A+"10,0"+1>01-+"6";,"8*1/A*0"(677*08+"*,")61+"6556"5080">01*O*0,+"7+0786E*/6"
+"655Q65-*-;.*,+H"/0(+"*"8*E;7*".*"(0,-67,6%"V5*"+EE+--*"*,.*8+--*">0110,0"64+8+";,"*(>6--0",+76-*40"1;55+"
6--*4*-N"R;0-*.*6,+H"6."+1%"6"/6;16".*";,6"468*6)*5+".*1>0,*)*5*-N".+55+"8*1081+"*.8*/A+H"+">0110,0"6,/A+""
*,E5;*8+"1;556"8+..*-*4*-N".+55+"*(>8+1+">+8"4*6".+55Q6;(+,-0".+*"/01-*".+55+"8*1081+"+"*5"/68*/0"E*1/65+".04;-0"
6556"-6116O*0,+"1;55+"8*1081+"+">+8"E*,6,O*68+"56">80-+O*0,+".+5"/5*(6%"
bQ*(>6--0".*8+--0".+*"/6()*6(+,-*"/5*(6-*/*"1;55+"*,E861-8;--;8+">+8"*5"-+(>0"5*)+80"468*6"6"1+/0,.6"
.+55Q6--*4*-N"+".+5"5;070%"b+"*,E861-8;--;8+">+8"5Q6--*4*-N"655Q6>+8-0H"/0(+"5+"E;,*4*+H"10,0"7+,+865(+,-+">*`"
/05>*-+".*"R;+55+"*,.008%"b6"5080"4;5,+86)*5*-N"6*"/6()*6(+,-*"/5*(6-*/*">;h"+11+8+".*",6-;86"1*6"*,E861-8;-_
-;865+"/A+"+/0,0(*/0_0>+86-*46H",+"10,0";,"+1+(>*0"75*"1(0--6(+,-*"+"5+"1564*,+"0"56">+8.*-6".*"8+..*-*_
4*-N".04;-6"6556"(*,08+".*1>0,*)*5*-N".*",+4+%"b+"6--*4*-N"*,.008",0,".*>+,.0,0".655+"/0,.*O*0,*"(+-+080_
507*/A+H"(6"8*/A*+.0,0"1>+110"(05-+"8*1081+%"
Potenziale situazione futura
P,"E;-;80"1*"8+7*1-8+8N";,",0-+405+"*,/8+(+,-0".+5"8*1/A*0".*".6,,*"655+"*,E861-8;--;8+"6"/6;16".*"E+,0(+,*"
(+-+080507*/*"+1-8+(*"+".*">+8*/05*",6-;865*%"Z;+1-*"+4+,-*"1*">0110,0"8*>+8/;0-+8+",0,"1050"1;556""
1*/;8+OO6".+55+">+810,+H"(6"6,/A+"1;55Q6--86--*4*-N".+5"-;8*1(0%"P,">68-*/0568+H"*,"/0,/0(*-6,O6"/0,"*5""
>0-+,O*65+"6;(+,-0".+*"E5;11*"-;8*1-*/*"+"*5"/8+1/+,-+"10486//68*/0".+556"8+-+".*"-861>08-*H"*".6,,*"655+"*,E86_
1-8;--;8+">0-8+))+80"5*(*-68+"1*7,*E*/6-*46(+,-+"56"(0)*5*-N"-;8*1-*/6"*,"'5-0"'.*7+"+"6,/A+"5Q6//+11*)*5*-N"
.+55+"1*,705+".+1-*,6O*0,*"-;8*1-*/A+">0-8+))+"8*1;5-68+"/0(>80(+116%"P,05-8+H"*,"E;-;80"1*".048N"-+,+8+"
/0,-0".*">011*)*5*"/6()*6(+,-*",+55+"+1*7+,O+".+75*"01>*-*H"/0(+"6."+1+(>*0";,6"/8+1/+,-+"8*/A*+1-6".*"
68*6"/0,.*O*0,6-6"*,"+1-6-+"GV‚115*,7"x"b;,._L;856/A+8H"!9!&J%"
Potenziale di adattamento
b6">80-+O*0,+".+5"/5*(6"*,/5;.+"(*1;8+".*"0--*(*OO6O*0,+".+55Q+EE*/*+,O6"+,+87+-*/6".+55+"1-8;--;8+"8*/+-_
-*4+"+".*"8*1-086O*0,+H"/01d".6"(*75*0868,+"*5")*56,/*0"6()*+,-65+%"<68+";,6"465;-6O*0,+"1+(>5*E*/6-6"+""
4*,/056,-+".+55Q*(>80,-6".*"/68)0,*0"6"5*4+550"6O*+,.65+">;h"1+84*8+"6"/0,-805568+"+"8*.;88+"5+"+(*11*0,*".*"
Ck2H"(6"5+"8+1-8*O*0,*"E*,6,O*68*+"+"56"(6,/6,O6".*"/0,16>+405+OO6"+".*"*(>+7,0".6">68-+".+55+"*(>8+1+"
>0-8+))+80"01-6/0568,+"5Q6--;6O*0,+"G@+/A56,+8"+-"65%H"!9!!J%"
@+8"E68"E80,-+"655+"1E*.+"/A+"*5"/6()*6(+,-0"/5*(6-*/0"86>>8+1+,-6",+5"-;8*1(0H"0//088+"8+,.+8+">*`"6EE*_
.6)*5+"5Q*,,+46(+,-0",+55+"1-6O*0,*"1/**1-*/A+"+"(*75*0868+"56"/6>6/*-N".*"-861>08-0".+75*"*(>*6,-*".*"8*16_
5*-6H"*,-80.;/+,.0"6,/A+",;04+"(*1;8+".*"165467;68.*6".+556",+4+H"/0(+"5+"/0>+8-;8+".+*"7A*6//*6*"+"*""
.+>01*-*".*",+4+"+">80(;04+,.0"6--*4*-N"+1-*4+">+8"5+"E;,*4*+H"/0(+"*5"-861>08-0".*"(0;,-6*,")*l+%"X6,,0"
*,/08677*6-*"5Q+1>6,1*0,+".+55+"*,E861-8;--;8+">+8"*5"-+(>0"5*)+80"*,.008"+"0;-.008"+"*5"-;8*1(0">86-*/6-0"
-;--0"5Q6,,0%"k5-8+"6556"465;-6O*0,+".+5"5080"*(>6--0"6()*+,-65+H"*,"E;-;80"5+"*,E861-8;--;8+".0486,,0""
+11+8+">807+--6-+"-+,+,.0"/0,-0"6,/A+".+55Q6;(+,-0".+5"8*1/A*0".*"/656(*-N",6-;865*%"@+8"7686,-*8+";,"
6.+7;6-0"1*1-+(6".*"-861>08-*"+"5Q6//+11*)*5*-N".+55+".+1-*,6O*0,*"-;8*1-*/A+"168N",+/+1168*0"6.0--68+";5-+_
8*08*"(*1;8+%"
"
Sommario – Rischi principali
a T*1/A*0".*".*(*,;O*0,+".+55w6--86--*4*-N".+5"-;8*1(0"*,4+8,65+"6"/6;16".+55w6;(+,-0".+55+""
-+(>+86-;8+H".+75*"+4+,-*"(+-+080507*/*"+1-8+(*"+".+556"468*6)*5*-N".+55+">8+/*>*-6O*0,*"
a T*1/A*0".*".*(*,;O*0,+".+556"1*/;8+OO6";(6,6"*,"8+56O*0,+"65"-;8*1(0"+1-*40"6"/6;16".*"+4+,-*"
(+-+080507*/*"+1-8+(*"
a T*1/A*0".*".*(*,;O*0,+".+556"1*/;8+OO6";(6,6"*,"8+56O*0,+"65"-;8*1(0"*,4+8,65+"6"/6;16".*"
+4+,-*"(+-+080507*/*"+1-8+(*""
a T*1/A*0".*".6,,*"655w*,E861-8;--;86"-;8*1-*/6"6"/6;16".*"+4+,-*"(+-+080507*/*"+1-8+(*"
B!"
"
a T*1/A*0".*";,6"8*.;O*0,+".+556"R;65*-N".+556"4*-6".+556">0>056O*0,+"50/65+",+55+"68++"-;8*1-*/A+"6"
/6;16".+550"1>01-6(+,-0".+*"E5;11*"-;8*1-*/*"
a T*1/A*0".*".*(*,;O*0,+".+55w6--+77*6(+,-0",+*"/0,E80,-*".+5"-;8*1(0".+556">0>056O*0,+"50/65+"6"
/6;16".+550"1>01-6(+,-0".+*"E5;11*"-;8*1-*/*".04;-0"6556".*(*,;O*0,+I6;(+,-0".+55w6--86--*4*-N"
-;8*1-*/6"+".+55w*,-+,1*-N"-;8*1-*/6"
a T*1/A*0".*"10486//68*/0".+5"1*1-+(6"16,*-68*0">;))5*/0"+".+55+"*,E861-8;--;8+".*"(0)*5*-N",+55+"
.+1-*,6O*0,*"-;8*1-*/A+"6"/6;16".+550"1>01-6(+,-0".+*"E5;11*"-;8*1-*/*"
"
Bibliografia
– Abegg, B. (1996). Klimaänderung und Tourismus: Klimafolgenforschung am Beispiel des Wintertourismus in den Schweizer
Alpen. [Nationales Forschungsprogramm 31 "Klimaänderungen und Naturkatastrophen]; Schlussbericht NFP 31. vdf, Hoch-
sch.-Verl. an der ETH.
– ASTAT. (2022). Impianti a fune in Alto Adige - 2022 (236). https://astat.provinz.bz.it/de/aktuelles-publikationen-
info.asp?news_action=4&news_article_id=671687
– ASTAT. (2023). Turismo in alcune regioni alpine - 2022. Istituto provinciale di statistica ASTAT. https://astat.pro-
vinz.bz.it/de/aktuelles-publikationen-info.asp?news_action=4&news_article_id=677713
– Endler, C., & Matzarakis, A. (2011). Climate and tourism in the Black Forest during the warm season. International Journal of
Biometeorology, 55(2), 173–186. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00484-010-0323-3
– Eurac Research. (2023a). Giorni di gelo. Climate Change Monitoring South Tyrol. https://www.eurac.edu/it/data-in-ac-
tion/monitoraggio-dei-cambiamenti-climatici/giorni-di-gelo
– Eurac Research. (2023b). Coperatura vevosa e sue variazioni. Climate Change Monitoring South Tyrol.
https://www.eurac.edu/it/data-in-action/monitoraggio-dei-cambiamenti-climatici/copertura-nevosa-e-sue-variazioni
– Gössling, S., & Lund-Durlacher, D. (2021). Tourist accommodation, climate change and mitigation: An assessment for Austria.
Journal of Outdoor Recreation and Tourism, 34, 100367. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jort.2021.100367
– Gruber, S., Hoelzle, M., & Haeberli, W. (2004). Permafrost thaw and destabilization of Alpine rock walls in the hot summer of
2003. Geophysical Research Letters, 31(13). https://doi.org/10.1029/2004GL020051
– Juschten, M., Brandenburg, C., Hössinger, R., Liebl, U., Offenzeller, M., Prutsch, A., Unbehaun, W., Weber, F., & Jiricka-Pürrer,
A. (2019). Out of the City Heat—Way to Less or More Sustainable Futures? Sustainability, 11(1), 214.
https://doi.org/10.3390/su11010214
– Mourey, J., Ravanel, L., Lambiel, C., Strecker, J., & Piccardi, M. (2019). Access routes to high mountain huts facing climate-
induced environmental changes and adaptive strategies in the Western Alps since the 1990s. Norsk Geografisk Tidsskrift -
Norwegian Journal of Geography, 73(4), 215–228. https://doi.org/10.1080/00291951.2019.1689163
– Pechlaner, H., Innerhofer, E., Gruber, M., Scuttari, A., Walder, M., Habicher, D., Gigante, S., Volgger, M., Corradini, P., Laner,
P., & von der Gracht, H. (2022). Ambition Lebensraum Südtirol. Auf dem Weg zu einer neuen Tourismuskultur. Landestouris-
musentwicklungskonzept 2030+. Eurac Research. https://www.eurac.edu/de/institutes-centers/center-for-advanced-stu-
dies/projects/ltek2030plus
– Pröbstl-Haider, U., Hödl, C., Ginner, K., & Borgwardt, F. (2021). Climate change: Impacts on outdoor activities in the summer
and shoulder seasons. Journal of Outdoor Recreation and Tourism, 34, 100344. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jort.2020.100344
– Scott, D., Hall, C. M., & Gössling, S. (2012). Tourism and climate change: Impacts, adaptation and mitigation. Routledge.
– Seilbahnen Schweiz. (2022). Fakten & Zahlen zur Schweizer Seilbahnbranche (p. 40).
– Siegrist, D., & Gessner, S. (2011). Klimawandel: Anpassungsstrategien im Alpentourismus. Ergebnisse einer alpenweiten Del-
phi-Befragung. Zeitschrift Für Tourismuswissenschaft, 3(2), 179–194. https://doi.org/10.1515/tw-2011-0207
– Steiger, R., Scott, D., Abegg, B., Pons, M., & Aall, C. (2019). A critical review of climate change risk for ski tourism. Current
Issues in Tourism, 22(11), 1343–1379. https://doi.org/10.1080/13683500.2017.1410110
– Witmer, U. (1986). Erfassung, Bearbeitung und Kartierung von Schneedaten in der Schweiz. (Bern: Institute of Geography,
University of Bern.). https://doi.org/10.48350/180417
– Zgheib, T., Giacona, F., Granet-Abisset, A.-M., Morin, S., Lavigne, A., & Eckert, N. (2022). Spatio-temporal variability of ava-
lanche risk in the French Alps. Regional Environmental Change, 22. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-021-01838-3
B#"
"
4.7
Insediamenti, infrastrutture, patrimonio culturale
Autore: Andrea Omizzolo
"
Figura 21: Catena degli impatti per visualizzare la pericolosità, l'esposizione e la vulnerabilità degli insediamenti,
delle infrastrutture e del patrimonio culturale
"
Introduzione
V5*"+EE+--*".+5"/6()*6(+,-0"/5*(6-*/0"*,-+8+116,0"75*"*,1+.*6(+,-*H"*,/5;1+"1*6"5+"/0(>0,+,-*"/01-8;*-+"
/A+"75*"1>6O*">;))5*/*">+8"5+"/0(;,*-N"50/65*H"5+">8*,/*>65*"/0(>0,+,-*"*,E861-8;--;865* +"75*"+5+(+,-*"-6,7*_
)*5*"+"*,-6,7*)*5*".+5">6-8*(0,*0"/;5-;865+"GX655+u0"x"S;556,H"!9&KJ%""
b6"1*-;6O*0,+"6--;65+"*,"'5-0"'.*7+"4+.+";,6"-+,.+,O6"6556"/8+1/*-6".*"+4+,-*"(+-+080507*/*"+1-8+(*"*,"-+8_
(*,*"1*6".*"E8+R;+,O6"/A+".*"*,-+,1*-NH"/A+"A6,,0";,"*(>6--0"1;"R;+1-*"1+--08*H"*,"5*,+6"/0,"R;6,-0"7*N""
6//6.+"6"5*4+550",6O*0,65+"GPF@T'H"!9!!J%"@+8"6;(+,-68+"56"8+1*5*+,O6".+75*"*,1+.*6(+,-*"+".+55+"*,E861-8;-_
-;8+"[",+/+1168*0"1E8;--68+"+"6.6--68+"0>>08-;,6(+,-+"75*"1-8;(+,-*">;))5*/*".*">*6,*E*/6O*0,+"-+88*-0_
8*65+"+"1+--08*65+H">+8"+1+(>*0"*5"f@*6,0"/0(;,65+">+8"*5"-+88*-08*0"+"*5">6+1677*0g"G@804*,/*6"6;-0,0(6".*"
M05O6,0H"!9!#6JH";-*5*OO6-0">+8"5Q*,.*4*.;6O*0,+"+"56"7+1-*0,+".+55+"68++"+".+55+"8+-*",+/+1168*+">+8"5+"
0>+8+"+11+,O*65*".*";8)6,*OO6O*0,+H"+"*5"f@*6,0".+55+"O0,+".*">+8*/050g"G@i@JH"/A+"*,.*4*.;6"5+"68++""
1077+--+"6*">+8*/05*"*.807+0507*/*"GE86,+H"655;4*0,*H"/056-+".+-8*-*/A+"+"4656,7A+J"G@804*,/*6"6;-0,0(6".*"
M05O6,0H"!9!#)J%"b6"8+65*OO6O*0,+".*"*,E861-8;--;8+"8+1*5*+,-*"65"/6()*6(+,-0"/5*(6-*/0">8+4+.+".+*"
Esterno: ad esempio conseguenze
dell'interruzione (legata al clima) di
infrastrutture critiche al di fuori
dellʼAlto Adige (ad es. interruzione della
rete ferroviaria, stradale o elettrica).
Danni, perdite e
deterioramento del
patrimonio culturale
Danni e deteriora-
mento delle
infrastrutture e dei
servizi comunali
Danni e deteriora-
mento delle
infrastrutture e dei
servizi sanitari
Danni e deteriora-
mento di edici
residenziali, impianti
produttivi, infrastrut-
ture di trasporto e
spazi pubblici.
Perdita di attrattività
del territorio e del
turismo
Pioggia intensa, grandine
e temporali più intensi
Legame con i rischi climatici: Gestione delle acque, energia, turismo, salute, biodiversità, economia.
Edicio
Infrastrutture
sanitarie
Infrastrutture
critiche
Patrimonio culturale Attrattività del
territorio
Insediamenti abitativi,
infrastrutture e beni culturali
Aumento delle tempera-
ture e del calore
Aumento del rischio di
incendio
Danni a edici e
infrastrutture dovuti al
calore
Aumento degli
smottamenti, delle
frane e della caduta
massi
Aumento delle
inondazioni (nelle
aree popolate)
Sovraccarico
della rete
fognaria
Potenziale espansione delle
zone di pericolo, aumento
degli edici e delle
infrastrutture esistenti nelle
zone di pericolo
Danni a edici e
infrastrutture
dovuti a pericoli
naturali Responsabilità
multiple
(comune,
provincia, stato)
Aumento dei costi di
riparazione e manutenzione
Aumento
dellʼespo-
sizione Aumento della popolazione nelle
città + aumento dei turisti
Poche soluzioni basate sulla natura
(città verdi, aree di raccolta
dell'acqua, ...)
Edici e infrastrutture non adatti al
clima (più vecchi) con maggiore
vulnerabilità
Aumento dellʼimpermeabilizzazione
e del consumo del territorio dovuti a
edici e infrastrutture (tra cui il
turismo)
Mancanza di una considerazione
obbligatoria dellʼadattamento e della
protezione del clima nella pianica-
zione (pianicazione territoriale,
pianicazione delle zone di pericolo)
Pericoli legati al clima
Impatti climatici
Sistemi esposti
Vulnerabilità, fattori di rischio non climatici
Rischio principale con necessità di intervento
urgente alto medio
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"
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"
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Cause dei rischi
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/6;16-*".6"-+(>+1-+"4*05+,-+H"/0,"80--;86".+556">64*(+,-6O*0,+"0"*,67*)*5*-N">805;,76-6".*"65/;,+"68++%"
Z;+1-*"+4+,-*"+1-8+(*">0110,0"/0(>80(+--+8+"56"1*/;8+OO6".+55+">+810,+H".6,,+77*68+"5+"*,E861-8;--;8+"
+"(*,68+"56"E;,O*0,65*-N".+75*"1>6O*">;))5*/*%""
P5"/8+1/+,-+",;(+80".*">+810,+"8+1*.+,-*H"56"/0,/+,-86O*0,+".+556">0>056O*0,+"8+1*.+,-+"+"01>*-+">+8"-;_
8*1(0"*,"65/;,+"1>+/*E*/A+"50/65*-N".+556">804*,/*6"+"*,"65/;,*">+8*0.*".+55Q6,,0H"56"/0,-*,;6"+1>6,1*0,+"
.+55Q+.*E*/6-0H"/01d"/0(+"56"R;65*-N"/01-8;--*46"0"5Q+-N"(+.*6".+5">6-8*(0,*0"+.*5*O*0"+"56"*,6.+7;6-+OO6"
.+556"1-8;--;86"*,1+.*6-*46"1-08*/6".+*",01-8*">6+1*"6;(+,-6,0"5Q+1>01*O*0,+">0-+,O*65+"/0(>5+11*46".+5"
10--01*1-+(6"6*"8*1/A*"/5*(6-*/*%""
Situazione attuale
C0(+"8*>08-6-0".65"T6>>08-0"1;5"/5*(6"a"'5-0"'.*7+"!9&B"Gi+)*1/A"+-"65%H"!9&BJ",+55+"68++"+.*E*/6-+"
.+55Q'5-0"'.*7+"011+84*6(0H"/0(+"*,"-;--+"5+"/*--NH";,"E08-+"6;(+,-0".+55+"-+(>+86-;8+"8*1>+--0"655+""
8+7*0,*"5*(*-80E+%"P,">68-*/0568+H"10,0"5+"-+(>+86-;8+",0--;8,+">*`"+5+46-+"6">8+7*;.*/68+"*5")+,+11+8+"
.+55Q+11+8+";(6,0"(
à
capitolo 3.1J%""
F-8+--6(+,-+"/055+76-*"/0,"56"-+(>+86-;86"+"10>86--;--0"/0,"*"E+,0(+,*".*">*077*6"-088+,O*65+"10,0"5+"
E86,+H"75*"1(0--6(+,-*H"5+"/6.;-+".*"(611*"+"5+"655;4*0,*H"1*6"6"1/656"50/65*OO6-6H"/*0["1/6-+,6-+".655+"
>*077+H"1*6".*")6/*,0H"/*0["/6;16-+".65"E*;(+%"\+75*";5-*(*"6,,*"1*"10,0"(05-*>5*/6-*"*,"'5-0"'.*7+"E+,0(+,*"
.*">*077*6"(05-0"50/65*OO6-6"+"*,-+,16">+8"*"R;65*"56"8+-+"E07,68*6"+1*1-+,-+",0,"["0>>08-;,6(+,-+""
/0,E*7;86-6%"\+"10,0"/0,1+7;*-+"*,0,.6O*0,*".*"1-86.+H">*6,*"10--+886,+*".*"+.*E*/*"+"1/6,-*,6-*%"@+8"8+7*_
1-868+"R;+1-*"+4+,-*"/0,"(677*08">8+/*1*0,+H",+5"!9&9"["1-6-6"*,-80.0--6"56"/6-+708*6".*"f655;4*0,+""
;8)6,6g",+5"1*1-+(6".*"(0,*-08677*0".+556"@804*,/*6"6;-0,0(6".*"M05O6,0"GA-->1DII>+8*/05*_,6-;865*%>80_
4*,/*6%)O%*-I*-I(0,*-08677*0J%""
b6">0>056O*0,+"65-06-+1*,6"["*,"/8+1/*-6"/01d"/0(+"*5",;(+80".*"*(>8+1+"+".*">+810,+"6..+--+"G'FU'UH"
!9!#J%"P,"/8+1/*-6"["6,/A+"*5",;(+80".*"01>*-*H"10>86--;--0"*,"65/;,+"46556-+"/686--+8*OO6-+".6"65-6"*,-+,1*-N"
-;8*1-*/6"1*6"+1-*46"/A+"*,4+8,65+%"\+75*"6,,*H"1*"["64;-6"6,/A+";,6"+1>6,1*0,+".+55+"68++"6)*-6-*4+H">80_
.;--*4+"+".*"R;+55+"6"1+84*O*0".+5"-;8*1(0H"/0,"/0,1+7;+,-+"6;(+,-0".+5"/0,1;(0".*"1;050">+8"5+",+_""
/+11*-N";(6,+%"@+8"5+"1-+11+",+/+11*-NH"["6;(+,-6-6"6,/A+"56">+8/+,-;65+".*"1;>+8E*/*+"*(>+8(+6)*5*O_
O6-6"/A+"6"1;6"405-6">;h"6//+,-;68+"56">08-6-6".*"65/;,*"+4+,-*"0".+*"5080"+EE+--*"GA-->1DIIjjj%+;_
86/%+.;I*-I.6-6_*,_6/-*0,I(0,*-08677*0_.+*_/6()*6(+,-*_/5*(6-*/*I*(>+8(+6)*5*OO6O*0,+_.+5_1;050J%"
B:"
"
Potenziale situazione futura
V5*"1/+,68*"/5*(6-*/*">8+4+.0,0";,">011*)*5+"*,-+,1*E*/681*".+75*"+4+,-*"+1-8+(*"/0(+">*077*6H"786,.*,+"+"
-+(>+1-+".*"4+,-0"G
à
capitolo 3.1J%"Z;*,.*H",+5">8011*(0"E;-;80H"1+(>8+">*`"+.*E*/*"8+1*.+,O*65*"+">80.;-_
-*4*">0-8+))+80"+11+8+"/05>*-*".*8+--6(+,-+H">+8"+1+(>*0".6,,*"6"/0>+8-;8+H"5;/+8,68*H"+5+(+,-*",0,"
1-8;--;865*H"0"*,.*8+--6(+,-+H">+8"+1+(>*0".6"E86,+"0"1(0--6(+,-*%"'5-+"-+(>+86-;8+"+">+8*0.*">805;,_
76-*"+"*,-+,1*".*"1*//*-N">0-86,,0"/0(>08-68+".6";,"56-0"5Q6;(+,-0".+5">+8*/050".*"*,/+,.*"/0,">0-+,O*65+"
.*1-8;O*0,+"0".6,,+77*6(+,-0".*"+.*E*/*"+"*,E861-8;--;8+".*"-861>08-0H".655Q65-80"56"10EE+8+,O6".+55+"*,E86_
1-8;--;8+".*">80.;O*0,+"/A+",+/+11*-6,0".*"6/R;6H"(6"6,/A+".+55+"*,E861-8;--;8+"5+76-+"6556">8+1+,O6".*"
6/R;6"+"*,-+8,+"675*"+.*E*/*"R;65*"-;)6O*0,*H"-861>08-0".+*"8+E5;*H"+//+-+86%"Z;+1-0"61>+--0"["077*">0/0"
/0,1*.+86-0"6"5*4+550">804*,/*65+"+"8*7;68.6"*,">68-*/0568+"5+"/*--N"+"65/;,+"50/65*-N".*"E0,.04655+%""
Potenziale di adattamento
b+"0>>08-;,*-N".*"6.6--6(+,-0"/A+"8*7;68.6,0"56">*6,*E*/6O*0,+"-+88*-08*65+"+";8)6,*1-*/6"*,/5;.0,0";,6"
(*75*08+"7+1-*0,+".+5"-+88*-08*0">+8">80-+77+8+"56"165;-+">;))5*/6"+"5+"6--*4*-N";(6,+"/088+56-+H",0,/Ac"
5Q*,-+786O*0,+".*"/0,/+--*".*"6.6--6(+,-0"+"105;O*0,*")616-+"1;556",6-;86",+55+",08(6-*4+";8)6,*1-*/A+"
>+8"E6408*8+"56")*0.*4+81*-N%"P,05-8+H"/0,.;88+";,Q*,.67*,+"1*1-+(6-*/6"1;556"E8+R;+,O6"+"5Q+,-*-N".+*".6,,*"
>;h"(*75*0868+"56"/0(>8+,1*0,+".+*"8*1/A*"+"(*75*0868+"5+"(*1;8+".*"6.6--6(+,-0%"
P"4*,/05*".+8*46,0".6556"(08E0507*6">804*,/*65+H"/A+"5*(*-6"5+"1;>+8E*/*".*1>0,*)*5*">+8"5+"6--*4*-N";(6,+H"+"
.655Q0))5*70".*"8*1>+--68+"5+",08(+"+"*">*6,*">804*,/*65*"+",6O*0,65*%"
P,05-8+H"65/;,*"5*(*-*">0110,0"01-6/0568+"5+"(*1;8+".*"6.6--6(+,-0"/0,,+11+"6556">*6,*E*/6O*0,+".+5"-+88*_
-08*0H"/0(+"56">8+.0(*,6,O6".+556">80>8*+-N">8*46-6".+75*"+.*E*/*"+".+55+"*,E861-8;--;8+H"*"/01-*"+5+46-*">+8"
5+"5080"8*1-8;--;86O*0,*"+"-861E08(6O*0,*H",0,/Ac"*5"E6--0"/A+"*5"@i@",0,"1*"6>>5*/6"65"/01-8;*-0"+1*1-+,-+%"
P,05-8+H"56"465;-6O*0,+".+5"8*1/A*0"+".+55+"(*1;8+".*"6.6--6(+,-0"1>+110"(6,/6".*";,Q6,65*1*"/01-*I)+,+_
E*/*%"
"
!"V"0
O)B86/*8:L:8(+(+/(82'N'+(//()N'63'+=(8+36+-.%:)'*K+
Z;+1-0"10--01*1-+(6"*,/5;.+"5Q*,1*+(+H"1-8+--6(+,-+"*,-+8/0,,+110H".*"1-8;--;8+H"1*1-+(*"+"1+84*O*"E*1*/*"0"
0876,*OO6-*4*"/A+"/0(>0,70,0"G0"6"1+84*O*0".*J";,6"10/*+-N"G@;.Y61-;-*"x"\;786A6H"!9&BJ%"Z;+1-6".+E*,*_
O*0,+"*,/5;.+"-861>08-*H"6/R;6H"*,E861-8;--;8+"16,*-68*+H"+,+87*6H"8*E*;-*H"/0(;,*/6O*0,*"+"*,E861-8;--;8+""
-;8*1-*/A+"G@08-;765_@+8+O"x"z*510,H"!9&!J%""
Cause dei rischi
W4+,-*"*.80(+-+080507*/*"+1-8+(*"G>*077*6H",+4+H"-+(>+1-+".*"4+,-0J"+"*"5080"+EE+--*"6"/61/6-6"G>+8"+1+(_
>*0"E86,+H"*,0,.6O*0,*H"*,/+,.*J">0110,0".6,,+77*68+".*8+--6(+,-+"0"*(>6--68+"*,"(6,*+86"E;,O*0,65+"
1;556"(677*08">68-+".+55+"*,E861-8;--;8+H"*,">68-*/0568+"6,-+,,+"+"8*>+-*-08*H"+5+--80.0--*"+"*,E861-8;--;8+".*"
-861>08-0"E+8804*68*0"+"1-86.65+%"bQ6;(+,-0".+55+"-+(>+86-;8+"+"*"E+,0(+,*"1*//*-01*"*,-+,1*">0110,0".+_
-+8(*,68+"/68+,O+"*.8*/A+"8*5+46,-*"1*6">+8"5Q*,E861-8;--;86"16,*-68*6"/A+">+8"50"1(65-*(+,-0".+55+"6/R;+"
8+E5;+"+".+*"8*E*;-*%"@+8"R;6,-0"8*7;68.6"5+"1-8;--;8+">+8"5+"6--*4*-N"8*/8+6-*4+"+"-;8*1-*/A+"46570,0"75*"1-+11*"
8*1/A*"+5+,/6-*">+8"75*"+.*E*/*"6)*-6-*4*%"<86,+H"/6.;-+"(611*"+"4656,7A+"/05>*1/0,0"1*6"5+"68++".*"+1/;81*0,+"
*,"(0,-67,6"1*6"56"8+-+".+*"-861>08-*"E0,.6(+,-65+">+8"5Q6//+11*)*5*-N"-;8*1-*/6"+"56"(0)*5*-N"*,"50/0%"
Situazione attuale
bQ*(>6--0"6--;65+"G+"/0,1+7;+,-+"8*1/A*0J"[">8*,/*>65(+,-+".+-+8(*,6-0".6"E86,+H"1(0--6(+,-*"+""
655;4*0,*H"(6"6,/A+"*,.*8+--6(+,-+".6556"/6.;-6".*"65)+8*"0"65-8*"077+--*".04;-6"6"E08-+"4+,-0H"0".65"/6508+"
+//+11*40"/A+">80.;/+".6,,*"65"(6,-0"1-86.65+",+5"/610".*"-861>08-*"4*68*%"X+,-0"E08-+"0"+4+,-*">*0401*"0"
-+(>+1-+"E08-*".+-+8(*,6,0"165-;68*6(+,-+"6,/A+"56"/A*;1;86".*"*(>*6,-*"6"E;,+"0".+75*"6+80>08-*"0""
+5*1;>+8E*/*"+"5*(*-6,0"56">86-*/6)*5*-N".*"65-8+"-*>0507*+".*"*,E861-8;--;8+".*"-861>08-0%"
\0,"1*"8+7*1-86,0".6,,*">68-*/0568*"0"/0,1+7;+,O+".*"8*5*+40"8*1>+--0"6556"*,E861-8;--;86"*.8*/6H"1+>>;8"
+4+,-*"1*//*-01*"+1-*4*",+75*";5-*(*"6,,*"G!9!&_!9!!J"6))*6,0"7*N"/6;16-0"*,"65/;,*"/0(;,*".+556">804*,/*6"
56"-+(>086,+6"/68+,O6".*"6/R;6">+8";10"*.80>0-6)*5+H">+8"5Q678*/05-;86"+">+8"56">80.;O*0,+".*"+,+87*6"
*.80+5+--8*/6%"b+"*,E861-8;--;8+"-;8*1-*/A+"10,0"1077+--+"6*"8*1/A*".04;-*"675*"+4+,-*"6-(01E+8*/*"+1-8+(*H"
/A+"/0(>08-6,0">80)5+(*".*"1*/;8+OO6"+";,"6;(+,-0".+*"/01-*".*"(6,;-+,O*0,+%"';(+,-6,0"6,/A+"*"
B?"
"
/01-*"5+76-*"655Q6>>8044*7*0,6(+,-0"*.8*/0"+"6556">80-+O*0,+".6"+4+,-*"E86,01*"0"*,0,.6O*0,*"/A+"(*,6/_
/*6,0"*,.*8+--6(+,-+"6,/A+"5Q6--86--*4*-N".+*"5;07A*%""
Potenziale situazione futura
F*">8+4+.+";,"6;(+,-0".+*"/01-*".*"*,-+88;O*0,+"+"(6,;-+,O*0,+".+55+"*,E861-8;--;8+"G<08O*+8*"+-"65%H"
!9&BJ"8+56-*40"655Q*,-+,1*E*/681*".*"+4+,-*"+1-8+(*H"/0,".6,,*"/8+1/+,-*"655+"*,E861-8;--;8+"5*,+68*H"*(>86-*/6_
)*5*-N"*,"65/;,*">+8*0.*".*"65/;,+"*,E861-8;--;8+H"6;(+,-0".+*">+8*0.*".*"/A*;1;86">+8"1*/;8+OO6"0"(6,;-+,_
O*0,+"1-8608.*,68*6".*"65-8+H",+/+11*-N".*"8*>+,168+"50/65*OO6O*0,+"+"(0.65*-N".*"/01-8;O*0,+H"7+1-*0,+"+"
(6,;-+,O*0,+%"P,05-8+H"["*>0-*OO6)*5+"56"+4+,-;65+".+E08(6O*0,+".*"-65;,*"(6-+8*65*";,6"405-6"1;>+86-6"56"
-055+86,O6">807+--6-6"G61E65-0H"(6-+8*65*"/01-8;--*4*".*">0,-*H"/64*"+">*50,*H"+//%J%"P,"/0,.*O*0,*"(+-+080507*_
/A+"+1-8+(+"1*">0-8+))+80"4+8*E*/68+")56/l0;-".*"461-+">80>08O*0,*%"P,05-8+H"/0(+"+(+810".*"8+/+,-+""
*,"65/;,+"68++".+5"X+,+-0H"*5"/6()*6(+,-0"/5*(6-*/0">;h"+11+8+"1+(>8+">*`"/088+1>0,16)*5+".*"(6,_
/6,O6".*"8*/+O*0,+".*"1+7,65*"6"/6;16".+55+"65-+"-+(>+86-;8+"+".+556";(*.*-N"/A+"7+,+86,0"6,0(65*+"
,+55Q6-(01E+86"G\61-H"!9!#J%""
Potenziale di adattamento
bQ0>>08-;,*-N"1*">8+1+,-6",+55Q6.6--6(+,-0".+55+"*,E861-8;--;8+"+1*1-+,-*H"/0,1*.+86,.0"5+"-+,.+,O+""
/5*(6-*/A+"+"5+"1>+/*E*/A+"4;5,+86)*5*-NH"/0,"5Q0)*+--*40".*"(*75*08685+"+"8+,.+85+">*`"8+1*5*+,-*%"P,05-8+H""
.+E*,*8+"1-86-+7*+"/008.*,6-+"+"*,,046-*4+".6">68-+".+75*"+,-*"8+1>0,16)*5*H"/0,1*.+86,.0"5Q*,-+8/0,,+1_
1*0,+"+"5+"*,-+8.*>+,.+,O+"*,E861-8;--;865*H">;h"/0,-8*);*8+"6"(*-*768+"75*"*(>6--*",+76-*4*%"
P"4*,/05*".+8*46,0">8*,/*>65(+,-+".6*"5*(*-*"E*1*/*".+5"-+88*-08*0H"/A+">8+1+,-6"1>6O*"8*1-8+--*"+"*,E861-8;--;8+"
+1-+1+%"P,05-8+H"5+"*,E861-8;--;8+".+40,0"/0,E08(681*"6"4*,/05*",08(6-*4*"+"5+765*"+1*1-+,-*H"/A+">0-8+))+80"
,0,"+11+8+"6.+7;6-6(+,-+"6.6--6-*"6*"/6()*6(+,-*"/5*(6-*/*"G
à
capitolo 4J%"Z;+1-0"1>+110"8*/A*+.+""
8+4*1*0,*",08(6-*4+"+"5+765*">+8"/0,1+,-*8+"5Q6.6--6(+,-0".+55+"*,E861-8;--;8+%"
b;,7A+"-+(>*1-*/A+"/686--+8*OO6,0"(05-*"*,-+84+,-*H"R;*,.*"["+11+,O*65+"*,-+78685*"/0,"105;O*0,*"*,-+8(+_
.*+"+"-+/,0507*+".*"-86,1*O*0,+%"bQ*,/+8-+OO6"1;556"E8+R;+,O6"+"5Q*,-+,1*-N".+75*"+4+,-*"(+-+080507*/*"
+1-8+(*">;h"/0(>5*/68+"56">*6,*E*/6O*0,+"6"5;,70"-+8(*,+"+"56">807+--6O*0,+".*"*,E861-8;--;8+"1;EE*/*+,-+_
(+,-+"8+1*5*+,-*%"P,05-8+H"75*"*(>6--*"/;(;56-*4*"+"5Q*,-+8/0,,+11*0,+">0110,0"/0(>5*/68+"56"7+1-*0,+"
.+55Q6.6--6(+,-0".+55+"*,E861-8;--;8+%"C0,E5*--*".*"*,-+8+11*"5+76-*"6"E6--08*"+/0,0(*/*H">05*-*/*"+"10/*65*""
>0110,0"01-6/0568+"5Q6.6--6(+,-0H">+8"+1+(>*0"56"8+1*1-+,O6"6".*1(+--+8+"*,E861-8;--;8+",+55+"68++"6""
8*1/A*0H"*,E5;+,O6-6".675*"*,-+8+11*"+/0,0(*/*"6")8+4+"-+8(*,+%"'5/;,*"*,-+84+,-*"1;"/+8-+"-*>0507*+".*"*,E86_
1-8;--;8+"10,0"1050">68O*65(+,-+".*"/0(>+-+,O6">804*,/*65+"+"8*/A*+.0,0"56"/00>+86O*0,+".+550"1-6-0%"
P,E*,+H"5Q080786E*6"+"*5"1*1-+(6"(0,-6,0">0110,0"*,E5;+,O68+"5+"0>O*0,*".*1>0,*)*5*H"1>+110"8*/A*+.+,.0"
105;O*0,*"65-+8,6-*4+"8*1>+--0"6"R;+55+";-*5*OO6-+",+55+">*6,;8+%"
"
!"V"5
>6*8'%.)'.+-:3*:863(+
Z;+1-0"10--01*1-+(6"8*7;68.6">6+1677*H"+.*E*/*"1-08*/*"0"-86.*O*0,65*H"5;07A*H"0>+8+"0"1-8;--;8+"/01*..+--*"
f(*,08*g"G/6>>+55+H"/A*+1+H"5;07A*">6,086(*/*JH"(;1+*"+."+.*E*/*">+8"56"/;1-0.*6"+"56"E8;*O*0,+".+5">6-8*(0_
,*0"/;5-;865+H"8+-*"(6-+8*65*"+"*((6-+8*65*%"
Cause dei rischi
P"E6--08*">8*,/*>65*H"/0(+"75*"+4+,-*"*.80(+-+080507*/*"+1-8+(*"+"5+"468*6O*0,*".*"-+(>+86-;86"+";(*.*-NH"
>0110,0".+-+8(*,68+".6,,*".*8+--*"+"*,.*8+--*"655+"1-8;--;8+%"W1>01-0"+"4;5,+86)*5+"["*5">6-8*(0,*0"(*,08+"
.*"(6,;E6--*H"+.*E*/*"+."61>+--*".6">80-+77+8+H"56"/;*".*EE;1*0,+"["6(>*6"6,/A+"*,"O0,+"(0,-6,+"8+(0-+"
6,/A+"6"R;0-+"+5+46-+%"P5">6-8*(0,*0"/;5-;865+"["*,05-8+"1-8+--6(+,-+"*,-+8/0,,+110"/0,"56">0>056O*0,+"
50/65+"8+1*.+,-+H"/0,"56"5080"/0,01/+,O6"+".*1>0,*)*5*-N"6"(6,;-+,+8+"+">80-+77+8+"*5">6-8*(0,*0"(6-+_
8*65+"+"*((6-+8*65+%"
Situazione attuale
F-08*/6(+,-+"75*"+.*E*/*"/;5-;865*"611*+(+"6"R;+55*"/*4*5*">*`"*(>08-6,-*">+8"5+"/0(;,*-N"50/65*"G>6-8*(0,*0"
/;5-;865+"(6-+8*65+"f(677*08+gJ"4+,*46,0"/01-8;*-*"*,"68++"1*/;8+%"U;--64*6H"786,.*,+H"4+,-0"E08-+H">*077+"
*,-+,1+H"E86,+"+"1(0--6(+,-*">0110,0"/6;168+".6,,*".*8+--*"675*"+.*E*/*">8*,/*>65*"G*,">68-*/0568+"-+--*H""
4+-86-+H"1/6,-*,6-*H"+//%J"(6"10>86--;--0"65">6-8*(0,*0"f(*,08+g"G>+8"+1+(>*0"/6>*-+55*H"/A*+1+--+H">;,-*"
BK"
"
>6,086(*/*H"+//%J"/A+"86>>8+1+,-6";,6"E+--6"/0,1*1-+,-+".+5"cultural heritage"*,";,6"8+7*0,+"(0,-6,6"
/0(+"5Q'5-0"'.*7+H"+"56876(+,-+".*EE;16"1;"-;--0"*5"-+88*-08*0">804*,/*65+%"3,0".+*"E6--08*"/A+"8+,.+"65-6_
(+,-+"4;5,+86)*5+"*5">6-8*(0,*0"/;5-;865+"+",6-;865+"675*"*(>6--*".+*"/6()*6(+,-*"/5*(6-*/*"["56"(6,/6,O6"
.*"*,-+786O*0,+".*"(*1;8+".+.*/6-+"6556"1;6"165467;68.*6",+*">*6,*"+",+55+"1-86-+7*+",6O*0,65*".*"8*.;O*0,+"
.+5"8*1/A*0H"6.6--6(+,-0"+"(*-*76O*0,+%"
Potenziale situazione futura
P,"677*;,-6"6"R;6,-0"7*N".+1/8*--0">+8"56"1*-;6O*0,+"6--;65+H";5-+8*08*"7864*".6,,*"675*"+.*E*/*">8*,/*>65*">01_
10,0"(+--+8+"6"8*1/A*0"5+"0>+8+"/;1-0.*-+"+"*5"8*>8*1-*,0".+75*";,*"+".+55+"65-8+"648N"/01-*"(05-0"65-*">+8"56"
/055+--*4*-N%"P,05-8+H"46"/0,1*.+86-6"56">011*)*5+"8*.;O*0,+".+55+"+,-86-+"5+76-+"65"1+--08+"-;8*1-*/0"/6;16-6"
.6556"1/0(>6816".*"1*-*".*">6-8*(0,*0"/;5-;865+%"
Potenziale di adattamento
L65"(677*0"!9!#H"5Q*,/5;1*0,+".*"(*1;8+".*"6.6--6(+,-0",+556",;046"5+77+">804*,/*65+"1;*")+,*"/;5-;865*"
0EE8+";,"R;6.80",08(6-*40">+8"56"-;-+56H"56"/0,1+846O*0,+"+"56"(6,;-+,O*0,+".+5">6-8*(0,*0"/;5-;865+"
.+556">804*,/*6%"k>>08-;,*-N".+8*46,0"6,/A+".6">+8/081*"E08(6-*4*"/A+"(*8*,0"6"*,-+7868+"5+"-+/,*/A+""
+.*5*O*+"-86.*O*0,65*"+"68-*7*6,65*"/0,"5+"-+/,0507*+"646,O6-+H"(+,-8+"1+,1*)*5*OO6,0"1;55Q*(>08-6,O6".+5"
>6-8*(0,*0"+"1;*".6,,*"/6;16-*".6*"/6()*6(+,-*"/5*(6-*/*%"P,E*,+H">8+>6868+"*5"1*1-+(6".*">80-+O*0,+"/*4*5+"
6556">80-+O*0,+".+5">6-8*(0,*0"/;5-;865+".;86,-+"75*"+4+,-*"+1-8+(*".+4+"+11+8+"/0,1*.+86-6";,6">8*08*-N%"
b6">8+1+,O6".*">80>8*+-N">8*46-+"1;"68++"0"0>+8+"/;5-;865*"+"56"50/65*OO6O*0,+",0,"(0.*E*/6)*5+".*"(05-+"
*,E861-8;--;8+"/01-*-;*1/0,0"4*,/05*"1*7,*E*/6-*4*",+556"7+1-*0,+"+">80-+O*0,+".+5">6-8*(0,*0"/;5-;865+%"
V5*"+5+46-*"/01-*"6110/*6-*"6556"(6,;-+,O*0,+"+"6556"(+116"*,"1*/;8+OO6".+5">6-8*(0,*0"/;5-;865+H"1*6""
(677*08+"/A+"(*,08+H"1>+110".*">80>8*+-N">8*46-6H"86>>8+1+,-6,0";,6"1E*.6%"P,05-8+H"56"1/6816"/0,01/+,O6"
.+55+"*,E861-8;--;8+".+5">6-8*(0,*0"(*,08+"+"56".*EE*/05-N",+5"R;6,-*E*/68+"*"8+56-*4*"/01-*"677*;,70,0";5-+_
8*08*"5*(*-*"6556"7+1-*0,+"+EE*/6/+".+5">6-8*(0,*0"/;5-;865+%"
Rischi principali
P"8*1/A*">8*,/*>65*"10,0">+8"56"165;-+"+"*5")+,+11+8+".+556">0>056O*0,+"8+1*.+,-+H"+"8*7;68.6,0"56"8*.;O*0,+"
.+556"R;65*-N".+556"4*-6".+8*46,-+".6".6,,*"655+"1-8;--;8+"+"655+"*,E861-8;--;8+"+"5Q*,6.+7;6-+OO6".+55Q6)*_
-6-0"6*"/6()*6(+,-*"/5*(6-*/*%"CQ["6,/A+";,">011*)*5+"8*1/A*0"8+56-*40"6"E+,0(+,*".*"1>0>056(+,-0"0"6550"
1>01-6(+,-0".+556">0>056O*0,+"G.+,-80"+"E;08*"56">804*,/*6J%"
"
Sommario – Rischi principali
a T*1/A*0".*".6,,+77*6(+,-0"+".*(*,;O*0,+".+556"R;65*-N".+75*"+.*E*/*"8+1*.+,O*65*H".+75*"+.*E*/*"
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.+55Q6;(+,-0".+55+"-+(>+86-;8+"+".+75*"+4+,-*"+1-8+(*"
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(+,-0".+5">6-8*(0,*0"/;5-;865+H"+".+75*"+EE+--*"1;5"-;8*1(0"*,4+8,65+"+."+1-*40"
"
BB"
"
Opportunità di adattamento, vincoli e limiti
F4*5;>>68+";,Q6,65*1*"/01-*I)+,+E*/*".+55+"(*1;8+".*"6.6--6(+,-0"6".+-+8(*,6-*"8*1/A*"168+))+";-*5+">+8"
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.+556"7+1-*0,+".+55+"*,E861-8;--;8+">0-8+))+"6;(+,-68+"5Q+EE*/6/*6".+55+"(*1;8+"+"8+,.+85+">*`"/0,16>+_
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*,1*+(+"655+"8*1081+"E*,6,O*68*+"5*(*-6-+"+"655+">8*08*-N"/0,/088+,-*H">0110,0"/01-*-;*8+"1*7,*E*/6-*4*"01-6/05*"
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P(>6/-1"6,."T*1l1"-0"C*-*+1H"F+--5+(+,-1H"6,."P,E861-8;/-;8+"G/5*(6-+6.6>-6-*0,>56-E08(%/0(JJ%"
"
Bibliografia
– ASTAT. (2023). 7° Censimento generale dell’agricoltura 2020 [dataset]. https://astat.provinz.bz.it/de/aktuelles-publikatio-
nen-info.asp?news_action=4&news_article_id=675776
– EEA. (2020). The European environment—State and outlook 2020—European Environment Agency [Publication].
https://www.eea.europa.eu/soer/publications/soer-2020
– Forzieri, G., Bianchi, A., Silva, F. B. e, Marin Herrera, M. A., Leblois, A., Lavalle, C., Aerts, J. C. J. H., & Feyen, L. (2018). Escalat-
ing impacts of climate extremes on critical infrastructures in Europe. Global Environmental Change, 48, 97–107.
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2017.11.007
– Global Commission on Adaptation. (2019). ADAPT NOW: A GLOBAL CALL FOR LEADERSHIP ON CLIMATE RESILIENCE.
https://gca.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/09/GlobalCommission_Report_FINAL.pdf
– ISPRA. (2022). Il Clima in Italia nel 2022 (Report di Sistema 36; SNPA - Report di Sistema). Sistema Nazionale per la Protezione
dell’Ambiente. http://www.scia.isprambiente.it/wwwrootscia/Documentazione/Rapporto_clima_SNPA_2022.pdf
– Nast, C. (2023, ottobre 17). La crisi del clima sta oscurando alcuni canali Rai. Wired Italia. https://www.wired.it/article/rai-
canali-non-si-vede-veneto-clima/
– Portugal-Perez, A., & Wilson, J. S. (2012). Export Performance and Trade Facilitation Reform: Hard and Soft Infrastructure.
World Development, 40(7), 1295–1307. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2011.12.002
– Provincia autonoma di Bolzano. (2023a). Piano comunale per il territorio e il paesaggio. https://natur-raum.pro-
vinz.bz.it/it/piano-comunale-per-il-territorio-e-il-paesaggio
– Provincia autonoma di Bolzano. (2023b). Piano delle zone di pericolo (PZP). https://pericoli-naturali.provincia.bz.it/it/piano-
delle-zone-di-pericolo-pzp
– Pudyastuti, P. S., & Nugraha, N. A. (2018). Climate change risks to infrastructures: A general perspective. AIP Conference Pro-
ceedings, 1977(1), 040030. https://doi.org/10.1063/1.5043000
– Vallejo, L., & Mullan, M. (2017). Climate-resilient infrastructure. 121. https://doi.org/10.1787/02f74d61-en
– Zebisch, M., Vaccaro, R., Niedrist, G., Schneiderbauer, S., Streifeneder, T., WeiГџ, M. L., Troi, A., Renner, K., Pedoth, L., Baum-
gartner, B., & Bergonzi, V. (2018).Rapporto sul clima 2017. Bolzano : Eurac Research.
B2"
"
4.8
Energia
Autrice e autori: Steffi Misconel, Matteo Giacomo Prina, Wolfram Sparber
"
"
Figura 22: Catena degli impatti per visualizzare la pericolosità, l'esposizione e la vulnerabilità del settore energetico
"
Introduzione
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"
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.0(6,.6".*"8*1081+"+,+87+-*/A+"A6"1>+8*(+,-6-0"-;8)05+,O+%"
Esterno: ad es.:
conseguenze (climatiche)
sullʼapprovvigionamento
energetico in Italia (picchi)
e produzione, incluse le
interruzioni.
Aumento della domanda di elettricità e
aumento dei picchi di domanda a causa
delle crescenti ondate di calore
Danni, carenze energetiche ed elettriche e
interruzioni della sicurezza nell'approvvigiona-
mento a causa dellʼaumento della temperatura
e dell'incremento di eventi meteorologici
estremi
Danneggiamento e riduzione dellʼa-
dabilità dell'infrastruttura di trasmissio-
ne e stoccaggio dell'energia.
Aumento dei
periodi di siccità
Aumento delle
temperature e del
calore
Legame con i rischi climatici: Gestione delle acque, agricoltura, foreste, turismo, salute, biodiversità, economia.
Fabbisogno energetico
Sistemi di trasporto e stoccaggio dell'energia
(linee elettriche, bacini idrici e tubazioni in pressione)
Produzione di energia
(idroelettrica, fotovoltaica)
Energia
Diminuzione della
disponibilità di
acqua in estate
Scioglimento dei
ghiacciai, meno neve
Aumento della
domanda di energia
per il rareddamento
Danni alle infrastrutture
energetichea
Riduzione della capacità
di trasmissione delle
linee elettriche
Ridotta capacità di
stoccaggio dei sistemi di
pompaggio
Incendi
boschivi
Diminuzione della
produzione di
energia in estate e
nelle annate secche
Danni nella
produzione di
energia (turbine,
celle solari,
biomassa, fossili)
Elevata dipendenza della
produzione di energia dal
clima (energia idroelettrica)
Mancanza di resilienza
delle infrastrutture
energetiche in caso di
condizioni meteorolog-
iche estreme
Mancanza di conoscenza
degli impatti del clima sul
sistema energetico
Mancanza di considerazi-
one del cambiamento
climatico nella gestione e
nei piani idrici ed
energetici
Aumento
delle energie
rinnovabili:
Impatto sulla
Biodiversità
Aumento della domanda
di elettricità grazie
allʼabbandono dei
combustibili fossili
(elettricazione della
mobilità, del riscaldamento
e dei processi industriali)
Lento incremento delle
energie rinnovabili
Mancanza di incentivi per
un uso dell'elettricità
essibile nel tempo
Pericoli legati al clima
Impatti climatici
Sistemi esposti
Vulnerabilità, fattori di rischio non climatici
Rischio principale con necessità di intervento
urgente alto medio
Pioggia intensa,
grandine e temporali
più intensi
29"
"
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Fattori climatici
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Variazioni nella disponibilità di acqua:"b+"468*6O*0,*",+556".*1>0,*)*5*-N".*"6/R;6">0110,0">08-68+"6";,6"
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678*/05-;86"+"E6(*75*+J"GC65.+86"x"M8+Y+8H"!9!9J%"
Variazioni negli eventi meteorologici estremiD"V5*"+4+,-*"(+-+080507*/*"+1-8+(*">0,70,0";5-+8*08*"1E*.+"
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1;88*1/65.6(+,-0".+*"-861E08(6-08*"+"10486//68*/68+"*5"1*1-+(6"6"/6;16".+55Q6;(+,-6-6".0(6,.6".*"86E_
E8+..6(+,-0H"1>+/*65(+,-+".04+"[",+/+1168*0"*5"/0,.*O*0,6(+,-0".+55Q68*6"G').*,"+-"65%H"!9&2J%"
Fattori non climatici
<6--08*",0,"/5*(6-*/*"/0(+"5Q+5+--8*E*/6O*0,+".+*"1+--08*".+*"-861>08-*H".+5"8*1/65.6(+,-0"+".+55Q*,.;1-8*6H"+"
5Q6.0O*0,+".*"+5+--805*OO6-08*">+8"56">80.;O*0,+".*"*.807+,0"/0(>08-+86,,0";,"6;(+,-0"101-6,O*65+".+5"
/0,1;(0".*"+5+--8*/*-N"*,"E;-;80%"F0..*1E68+"R;+1-6".0(6,.6"8*/A*+.+8N";,"1*7,*E*/6-*40"*,/8+(+,-0".+55+"
E0,-*"8*,,046)*5*H"/0,"*5"8*1/A*0"/A+"56"5080"+1>6,1*0,+",0,"-+,76"*5">6110"/0,"56"/8+1/+,-+".0(6,.6".*"
+5+--8*/*-N"6"O+80"+(*11*0,*%"
2&"
"
Situazione attuale
bQ+1-6-+".+5"!9!!"A6"86>>8+1+,-6-0";,6"1E*.6"1*7,*E*/6-*46">+8"5Q'5-0"'.*7+H">+8"65-8+"8+7*0,*"*-65*6,+"+"
>6+1*"+;80>+*"G>+8"+1+(>*0"V8+/*6"+"F>67,6J"6"/6;16".+55+">805;,76-+"+"8*/088+,-*"0,.6-+".*"/6508+"6))*_
,6-+"6">8+OO*"+,+87+-*/*"655+"1-+55+"GC0>+8,*/;1H"!9!#J%"@+8"R;6,-0"8*7;68.6"56".0(6,.6".*"+,+87*6"-+8_
(*/6">+8"*5"8*1/65.6(+,-0H"5wP-65*6"(01-86";,6".*(*,;O*0,+"(+.*6"6,,;6".*"&&H?#"=LL">+8"*5">+8*0.0"&2K2"
_"!9!!H"/A+"/088*1>0,.+"6";,6".*(*,;O*0,+"(+.*6".+5"_&9"q"8*1>+--0"65"&2K2"GW;801-6-H"!9!$J%"U;--64*6H"["
>80)6)*5+"/A+"56".0(6,.6".*"+,+87*6"+5+--8*/6">+8"*5"86EE8+..6(+,-0"6;(+,-*H">0*/Ac"1*"8+7*1-86";,"*,/8+_
(+,-0"(+.*0"6,,;0".*"?HK2"CLL%"@+8"5w';1-8*6H"*"/6()*6(+,-*"8*7;68.6,-*"*"A+6-*,7"+"/005*,7".+78++".6Y1"
10,0"6,/086">*`"+1-8+(*%"\+75*"6,,*".65"&2K2"65"!9!!H"*"7*08,*".*"8*1/65.6(+,-0"*,"';1-8*6"1*"10,0"8*.0--*"*,"
(+.*6".*"#9!H9:"=LLH"(+,-8+"*"7*08,*".*"86EE8+..6(+,-0"10,0"6;(+,-6-*".*"&?H&2"CLL"GW;801-6-H"!9!$J%"
P,05-8+H"56".0(6,.6"+5+--8*/6"*,"'5-0"'.*7+"1-6"7*N"6;(+,-6,.0"/0(+"/0,1+7;+,O6".+55Q+5+--8*E*/6O*0,+"
.+5"1+--08+"-861>08-*%"\+5"!9!!H"5+"4+,.*-+".*"4+*/05*"+5+--8*/*"+"*)8*.*"10,0"6;(+,-6-+".+5"$9"qH"(+,-8+"
R;+55+".*"6;-0(0)*5*"6"/0();1-*0,+"*,-+8,6"10,0".*(*,;*-+".+5"!!"q"G'CPH"!9!9J%"P,05-8+H"6,/A+"5w+1>6,_
1*0,+".+55+">0(>+".*"/6508+">08-6"6";,",0-+405+"6;(+,-0".+556".0(6,.6".*"+,+87*6"+5+--8*/6"*,"'5-0"
'.*7+%"F+/0,.0"*5"/+,1*(+,-0"PFU'UH"*,"'5-0"'.*7+"10,0"1-6-+"E*,086"*,/+,-*46-+"/*8/6"#99">0(>+".*"/6_
508+"/0,"E0,.*".+5")*56,/*0">804*,/*65+H".*"/;*"05-8+"&99",+5"!9!&%"L6*".6-*".+556"/+8-*E*/6O*0,+"{5*(6=6;1"
8*1;5-6"/A+"-86"*5"!9&$"+"*5"!9!&"10,0"1-6-+"*,1-6556-+"/*8/6"B?B">0(>+".*"/6508+"*,"+.*E*/*"/+8-*E*/6-*H".*"/;*"
K#K"*,",;04+"/01-8;O*0,*%"W,-80"*5"!9$:H"1*"1-*(6"/A+"*,"'5-0"'.*7+"/*8/6"B9%999"*(>*6,-*".*"8*1/65.6(+,-0"
6"/0();1-*)*5*"E011*5*".0486,,0"+11+8+"101-*-;*-*">8+465+,-+(+,-+"/0,">0(>+".*"/6508+%"W,-80"*5"!9#9"*,"
'5-0"'.*7+H"1*">8+4+.+"/A+"56"R;0-6".+55+">0(>+".*"/6508+",+5"E6))*107,0".*"8*1/65.6(+,-0".+*",;04*"+.*_
E*/*"65".*"E;08*".+55+"68++".*"-+5+8*1/65.6(+,-0"168N"-8*>5*/6-6"8*1>+--0"65"!9&2"GF~.-*805+8"b6,.-67H"!9!&J%""
Potenziale situazione futura
F*">8+4+.+"/A+"56".0(6,.6".*"+5+--8*/*-N"86..0>>*+8N"+,-80"*5"!9?9H"-86*,6-6".6556">*`"E6/*5+".+/68)0,*OO6_
O*0,+".+5"1+--08+"+5+--8*/0"8*1>+--0"6."65-8*"1+--08*"+".6556"/8+1/+,-+";8)6,*OO6O*0,+H",0,/Ac".6"1-*5*".*"4*-6"
8+1*">011*)*5*".6556"-+/,0507*6"/A+"8*/A*+.0,0">*`"+5+--8*/*-N"GU80//05*H"!9&BJ%"\+556"(677*08">68-+".+*">6+1*"
+;80>+*H"1*">8+4+.+"/A+"*5"/6()*6(+,-0"/5*(6-*/0"6;(+,-+8N"56".0(6,.6"(+.*6".*"+5+--8*/*-NH"/0,">0-+,_
O*65*"6;(+,-*".+*"/68*/A*".*">*//0".*"/*8/6"*5"!"q"+,-80"*5"!9:9"Gz+,O"+-"65%H"!9&KJ%"P,"'5-0"'.*7+H"56"1E*.6""
E;-;86"168N"R;+556".*"/0>8*8+"56"/8+1/+,-+".0(6,.6".*"+5+--8*/*-N".+8*46,-+".655w+5+--8*E*/6O*0,+".+*"1+--08*"
.+*"-861>08-*H".+5"8*1/65.6(+,-0"+".+55w*,.;1-8*6"/0,"E0,-*"65-+8,6-*4+".*"7+,+86O*0,+".*"+5+--8*/*-N"G-86"/;*"
E0-0405-6*/0H")*0(6116H")*0761H"+//%J%"C*h"[">68-*/0568(+,-+"*(>08-6,-+"*,"R;6,-0"5w6;(+,-0".+55+""
-+(>+86-;8+">;h">08-68+"6";,6".*(*,;O*0,+".+55+"8*1081+"*.8*/A+H"5*(*-6,.0"56"/6>6/*-N".*"E68"E;,O*0,68+"
5+"/+,-865*"*.80+5+--8*/A+"6">*+,0"8+7*(+%""
"
!"W"0
+U86/=.8*.+(+/*.--677'.+,'+()(87'6+
Cause dei rischi
Fattori climatici
Variazioni della temperatura ambiente:"'"/6;16".*"-+(>+86-;8+">*`"+5+46-+"+"0,.6-+".*"/6508+H"56""
/6>6/*-N".+55+"5*,++"+5+--8*/A+"+".+*"-861E08(6-08*">;h"+11+8+"8*.0--6D"/0(+"A6,,0".*(01-86-0"1-;.*H"56"
/6>6/*-N".*"-861(*11*0,+">;h".*(*,;*8+".*"/*8/6"5Q&H:"q">+8"07,*"786.0".*"1;88*1/65.6(+,-0"+1-*40"GM;8*550"
+-"65%H"!9&2m"F6-A6Y+"+-"65%H"!9&#J%"Z;+1-6"8*.;O*0,+".+556"/6>6/*-N"86>>8+1+,-6";,6"(*,6//*6">+8"56""
1*/;8+OO6".+55w6>>8044*7*0,6(+,-0"+5+--8*/0",+*">+8*0.*"/65.*H"10>86--;--0"1+"1*"4+8*E*/6".;86,-+"*">*//A*".*""
.0(6,.6".*"+5+--8*/*-N">+8"*5"86EE8+..6(+,-0%"
Variazioni negli eventi meteorologici estremi:"b+"*,0,.6O*0,*">0110,0".6,,+77*68+"5+"*,E861-8;--;8+"
+,+87+-*/A+"/0(+"5+"10--01-6O*0,*"+5+--8*/A+"GX68*6,0;"S*l+55*.0;"+-"65%H"!9&BJ%"',/A+"-+(>+1-+".*"
4+,-0H"786,.*,+H"7A*6//*0"+",+4+">0110,0"/05>*8+"5+"*,E861-8;--;8+".*"-861>08-0"+"1-0//677*0".+55Q+,+87*6H"
/6;16,.0")56/l0;-"+"/01-01+"8*>686O*0,*"GT~))+5l+"x"X‚7+5+H"!9&&J%""
"
2!"
"
Fattori non climatici
<6--08*",0,"/5*(6-*/*"/0(+"56"8+1*5*+,O6"+"56"E5+11*)*5*-N"*,6.+7;6-+".+55+"*,E861-8;--;8+H"-+/,0507*+"*,1;EE*_
/*+,-*">+8"56">80-+O*0,+"+"/6>6/*-N"5*(*-6-+".*"655+8-6">8+/0/+"+"8*1>01-6"/0,-8*);*1/0,0"6*"8*1/A*%"P,05-8+H"
cambiamenti e conflitti nell’uso del suoloH"6;(+,-0".+556".0(6,.6".*"+,+87*+"8*,,046)*5*"+">8078+11*"-+/_
,0507*/*">0110,0"*,E5;+,O68+"1*7,*E*/6-*46(+,-+"5+"*,E861-8;--;8+"+,+87+-*/A+"+"*"1*1-+(*".*"1-0//677*0%"
Situazione attuale
V5*"+4+,-*"(+-+080507*/*"+1-8+(*"A6,,0"7*N"/6;16-0".6,,*"655+"*,E861-8;--;8+"+5+--8*/A+",+55Q68+6"65>*,6%"
b6"-+(>+1-6"X6*6H",+55Q0--0)8+"!9&BH"A6">8040/6-0".*4+81*".6,,*"6556"8+-+".*"-861(*11*0,+",+5",08._+1-"
.+55QP-65*6"GW_L*1-8*);-O*0,+H"!9!9J"+"*,"F4*OO+86"GFj*1178*.H"!9!#J%"b6"-+(>+1-6"X6*6H"/A+",+55w0--0)8+"
!9&B"A6"/05>*-0"6,/A+"5w'5-0"'.*7+H"A6"64;-0"7864*"/0,1+7;+,O+"1;5"1*1-+(6"+5+--8*/0%"'5)+8*"/6.;-*"+""
*,E861-8;--;8+".6,,+77*6-+"A6,,0"/6;16-0")56/l0;-"+1-+1*"*,".*4+81+"68++H".;86-*"468*"7*08,*%"b*,++"6."65-6"
-+,1*0,+"+"1-6O*0,*".*".*1-8*);O*0,+"10,0"1-6-+"7864+(+,-+"/05>*-+H"10>86--;--0",+55+"O0,+"(0,-6,+%"P5"
8*>8*1-*,0".+556"8+-+"A6"8*/A*+1-0"*,7+,-*"8*1081+%"bw*,-+8+11+">+8"105;O*0,*"+,+87+-*/A+".+/+,-865*OO6-+H"
/0(+"7+,+86-08*"+">6,,+55*"10568*H"["6;(+,-6-0%"bw+4+,-0"A6"+4*.+,O*6-0"56",+/+11*-N".*"8+,.+8+"56"8+-+"
>*`"8+1*5*+,-+H"6,/A+"6--864+810"56">016".*"/64*"10--+886,+*%"
Potenziale situazione futura
bQ*,-+786O*0,+".+55+"+,+87*+"8*,,046)*5*"8*/A*+.+"+1>6,1*0,*"101-6,O*65*".+55+"*,E861-8;--;8+".*"-861(*1_
1*0,+"+"1-0//677*0"*,"'5-0"'.*7+%"P5">0-+,O*6(+,-0".+55+"8+-*"+5+--8*/A+"+"50"14*5;>>0".*"1(68-"78*."10,0"
E0,.6(+,-65*">+8"6//075*+8+"R;0-+"/8+1/+,-*".*"8*,,046)*5*"*,-+8(*--+,-*"GM+/l+8"+-"65%H"!9&$m"F/A6)+8"+-"
65%H"!9&!J%"';(+,-68+"56"/6>6/*-N".*"1-0//677*0".+55Q+,+87*6"["/8;/*65+">+8"7+1-*8+"56"468*6)*5*-N".+55+"8*,_
,046)*5*%"P,"'5-0"'.*7+H"/*"10,0">807+--*">+8"5Q+1>6,1*0,+".+75*"*(>*6,-*"*.80+5+--8*/*"+1*1-+,-*"+"56"/8+6_
O*0,+".*"*(>*6,-*"6">0(>677*0m"1*">8+4+.+"*,05-8+";,6"/8+1/+,-+".*EE;1*0,+".*"1*1-+(*".*"6//;(;50"6""
)6--+8*6"1;"56876"1/656"GPW'H"!9!&J%"',/A+"5Q6.0O*0,+".*"4+*/05*"+5+--8*/*H")6--+8*+".0(+1-*/A+"+".*1>01*-*4*""
*,-+55*7+,-*">;h"(*75*0868+"1*7,*E*/6-*46(+,-+"56".*1>0,*)*5*-N".*"1-0//677*0"+"56"8+1*5*+,O6".+5"1*1-+(6%"U;-_
-64*6H"5*(*-6O*0,*"5+76-+"655+"6--;65*"-+/,0507*+".+55+")6--+8*+">0110,0"E8+,68+"56"/8+1/*-6%""
"
!"W"5
X()(86N'.)(+(+-.)2(8/'.)(+,'+()(87'6+
Impianti idroelettrici
Cause dei rischi
Fattori climatici
Variazioni della temperatura ambiente:!b+"/+,-865*"*.80+5+--8*/A+"/0,";,"101-6,O*65+"6//;(;50",+5""
1+8)6-0*0"10,0"8+1*5*+,-*"655+"468*6O*0,*".*"E5;110"6")8+4+"-+8(*,+H"(6"1;)*1/0,0"75*"+EE+--*".+55Q6;(+,-0"
.+55+"-+(>+86-;8+H".+55Q+46>086O*0,+".+*"1+8)6-0*"+".+556".*(*,;O*0,+".+55+">8+/*>*-6O*0,*"GP='H"!9!!m"
„6,7"+-"65%H"!9!&J%"bQ6;(+,-0".+55+"-+(>+86-;8+">;h"E68"6;(+,-68+"*"/01-*"0>+86-*4*".+55Q*.80+5+--8*/0H"
*,E5;*8+"1;55Q+EE*/*+,O6".+55+"6>>68+//A*6-;8+"+"/6;168+"1055+/*-6O*0,*"(+//6,*/A+"GF056;,"x"C+8.…H"!9&2J%"
Variazioni nella disponibilità di acqua:!P5"8*-*80".+*"7A*6//*6*">;h"*,*O*65(+,-+"6;(+,-68+"56">80.;O*0,+"
*.80+5+--8*/6H"(6">0,+"8*1/A*".*")56/l0;-"+".+-+8*086(+,-0".+55+"-;8)*,+"+H",+5"5;,70"-+8(*,+H".*(*,;*1/+"
56">08-6-6".+*"/081*".Q6/R;6"GV6;.68."+-"65%H"!9&$m"P='H"!9!!m"@6-80"+-"65%H"!9&BJ%"P,05-8+H"*5"8*-*80".+*"
7A*6//*6*">0-8+))+">08-68+"6";,"6;(+,-0".+5"-861>08-0".*"1+.*(+,-*"*,"'5-0"'.*7+%"3,6"7+1-*0,+"*,6.+_
7;6-6".*"R;+1-*"1+.*(+,-*">;h">08-68+"65"5080"6//;(;50"655w*,-+8,0".+*"1+8)6-0*H"8*.;/+,.0"/01d"56"/6>6_
/*-N".*"1-0//677*0%"P,05-8+H"*"1+.*(+,-*">0110,0"E5;*8+",+*"/6,65*".*">8+16".+55w6/R;6H"/6;16,.0";,6".*(*,;_
O*0,+".+5"E5;110"+".+-+8*086,.0"5+"-;8)*,+%"P,05-8+H"GF64+51)+87"+-"65%H"!9&BJ"6,65*OO6,0"/A+"*"8*/64*".+55+"
/+,-865*"+5+--8*/A+"6")6/*,0"10,0">*`"*,E5;+,O6-*".+55+"/0,.*O*0,*".*"1*//*-N".04;-+"6*"/6()*6(+,-*"/5*(6_
-*/*"8*1>+--0"6*"8*/64*".+55+"/+,-865*"+5+--8*/A+"6."6/R;6"E5;+,-+%"b+"/+,-865*"*.80+5+--8*/A+"6."6/R;6"E5;+,-+"
>0110,0"/0(>+,168+">68-+".+556">+8.*-6"-0-65+".*"8*/64*".04;-6"6556"8*.;O*0,+".+75*"6EE5;11*"6;(+,-6,.0"
56">80.;O*0,+".;86,-+"*">*//A*".*">8+OO0"*,"*,4+8,0H"786O*+"6";,6"1-67*0,65*-N">*`"E6408+405+".+75*"6EE5;11*%!
Variazioni negli eventi meteorologici estremi:"P,"'5-0"'.*7+H"5+".*,6(*/A+"/5*(6-*/A+"*,"+405;O*0,+""
>0-8+))+80"6(>5*E*/68+"56"E8+R;+,O6"+"56"7864*-N".+55+"*,0,.6O*0,*%"bQ6;(+,-0">8+4*1-0".*"+4+,-*".*"
2#"
"
>8+/*>*-6O*0,+"+1-8+(6">0-8+))+"(+--+8+"6".;86">8046"56"/6>6/*-N".+*")6/*,*"*.8*/*H">0-+,O*65(+,-+""
>08-6,.0"6"-86)0//6(+,-*"+"/0,1+7;+,-*".6,,*"675*"*(>*6,-*"*.80+5+--8*/*"GV0)*+-"+-"65%H"!9&$J%"b+">80*+_
O*0,*"1;77+8*1/0,0"/A+"R;+1-+"-+(>+86-;8+">*`"+5+46-+"/0,-8*);*86,,0"6"/*/5*".*"1*//*-N">*`">80,;,/*6-*H""
*,E5;+,.0"1;55Q6EE5;110".*"6/R;6",+*")6/*,*"*.8*/*"/A+"65*(+,-6,0"75*"*(>*6,-*"*.80+5+--8*/*%"P,05-8+H"56"8*.;_
O*0,+".+5"(6,-0",+4010"65>*,0"65".*"10--0".*"/+8-+"R;0-+"G*,-08,0"6"&:99_!999"(+-8*J"6"/6;16".+55+"/0,.*_
O*0,*">*`"/65.+">08-+8N"6"(*,08*"6>>08-*".*"E;1*0,+",*465+"6*"1*1-+(*"E5;4*65*H"*,/*.+,.0";5-+8*08(+,-+"
1;55Q6>>8044*7*0,6(+,-0"6EE*.6)*5+".*"6/R;6">+8"56">80.;O*0,+".*"+,+87*6"GV0)*+-"+-"65%H"!9&$J%"F*">8+4+.+"
/A+">80/+11*"/0(+"5Q6110--*75*6(+,-0".+*"7A*6//*6*"+"50"1/*075*(+,-0".+5">+8(6E801-H"6//+5+86-*".655Q"
6;(+,-0".+55+"-+(>+86-;8+H"*,,+1/A+86,,0"E86,+H"1(0--6(+,-*"+"*,-+,1*"E5;11*".*".+-8*-*">*`"E8+R;+,-*%""
P,">68-*/0568+H"56"/6.;-6".*"(611*"[">*`">8+1+,-+",+556">68-+"(+8*.*0,65+".+55w'5-0"'.*7+H"(+,-8+";,w65-6"
.+,1*-N".*"E86,+">;h"+11+8+"*.+,-*E*/6-6",+556">68-+"08*+,-65+"+"1+--+,-8*0,65+".+556">804*,/*6%"b+"/056-+"
.+-8*-*/A+"1*"011+846,0"10>86--;--0"6",08."+"6"04+1-%"P,05-8+H"1+))+,+",0,"/01-*-;*1/6,0",+/+1168*6(+,-+"
;,">+8*/050H"*"7A*6//*6*"80//*01*">8+1+,-6,0";,w65-6".+,1*-N",+556">68-+"0//*.+,-65+".+55w'5-0"'.*7+"
GF/A5‚7+5"+-"65%"!9!9J%"Z;+1-*"+4+,-*"(+--0,0"*,">+8*/050",0,"1050"5+"O0,+"*((+.*6-6(+,-+"6.*6/+,-*H"(6"
>0110,0"6,/A+"*,-+880(>+8+"5+"0>+86O*0,*"*.80+5+--8*/A+"6"4655+H"/0(>08-6,.0"5Q6;(+,-0".+*"/01-*".*"
(6,;-+,O*0,+"+">0-+,O*65(+,-+"6,/A+"-+(>*".*"*,6--*4*-N">805;,76-*"GV0)*+-"+-"65%H"!9&$J%"
Fattori non climatici
<6--08*",0,"/5*(6-*/*"+"4;5,+86)*5*-N"/0(+"5+"5*(*-6-+"/6>6/*-N".*"1-0//677*0"+"-861E+8*(+,-0".+55Q6/R;6H"
/6()*6(+,-*",+556".0(6,.6"+",+*">8+OO*".+55Q6/R;6"+"468*6O*0,*"+/0,0(*/A+"5+76-+"6"1*-;6O*0,*"7+0>05*-*_
/A+">0,70,0"6,/A+"1E*.+"675*"*(>*6,-*"*.80+5+--8*/*"*,"'5-0"'.*7+%"bQ*,/6>6/*-N".*"6.6--681*"6*"(0.+55*".*"
E5;110"(;-+405*"+"(*1;8+".*"6.6--6(+,-0"*,1;EE*/*+,-*">0110,0">08-68+"6";,6">80.;O*0,+"+,+87+-*/6""
1;)0--*(65+"0"655Q688+1-0".+75*"*(>*6,-*".;86,-+">+8*0.*".*">08-6-6"8*.0--6%""
Situazione attuale
bQ*.80+5+--8*/0"["56"E0,-+">8*,/*>65+".*"+,+87*6"+5+--8*/6"*,"'5-0"'.*7+H"/0>8+,.0"/*8/6"*5"B:"q".+5"E6))*10_
7,0"G.0(6,.6"+5+--8*/6"-0-65+".*"$H22!"VzA",+5"!9!!J"GUWT\'H"!9!$J%"P5"8+1-6,-+"&:"q"["/0>+8-0".675*"
*(>*6,-*"-+8(0+5+--8*/*"G2"qJ"+".65"E0-0405-6*/0"G?"qJ%"b6">80.;O*0,+"*.80+5+--8*/6">;h"+11+8+"/*8/6"*5""
.0>>*0".+556"8*/A*+1-6H"(6"1;")61+"0868*6"/*"10,0"(0(+,-*".*"10486>80.;O*0,+H"/0,"+1>08-6O*0,+".*""
+,+87*6"*,"+//+110H"+"(0(+,-*".*".+E*/*-H"/0,"*(>08-6O*0,+".6556"8+-+"*-65*6,6%"
Potenziale situazione futura
P,">68-*/0568+H"56".*(*,;O*0,+".+55w6//;(;50".*",+4+".04;-6"655w6;(+,-0".+55+"-+(>+86-;8+">80)6)*5_
(+,-+"8*.;88N"*5"-861E+8*(+,-0".+*"405;(*".*"E5;110".655w*,4+8,0"6556"-68.6">8*(64+86"+"655w+1-6-+H""
1;77+8+,.0"655+"10/*+-N"*.80+5+--8*/A+"*,"'5-0"'.*7+".*"8*4+.+8+"5+"1-86-+7*+".*"7+1-*0,+".+55w6/R;6">+8"
(611*(*OO68+"*"8*/64*%"bw+,-*-N".+55+"468*6O*0,*".+5".+E5;110"+".+5">0-+,O*65+"*.80+5+--8*/0"468*6"6"1+/0,.6"
.+556"50/65*-N"+."["7+,+865(+,-+"(677*08+"655+"R;0-+">*`"+5+46-+H"6"/6;16".+55w6;(+,-0"*88+70568+".+55+"
>8+/*>*-6O*0,*%"bw*,/8+(+,-0"8+56-*40".+5"E5;110"*,"+,-86-6"["*,E6--*">*`"1*7,*E*/6-*40">+8"*"1+8)6-0*"1*-;6-*"6."
65-*-;.*,*">*`"+5+46-+"8*1>+--0"6"R;+55*">01-*"6"R;0-+"*,E+8*08*"GS6u0,+"+-"65%H"!9&?J%"3,"65-80"1-;.*0"1;556"
8+7*0,+"65>*,6"A6"(01-86-0";,0"1>01-6(+,-0"4+810";,6"(677*08+">08-6-6"*,4+8,65+I>8*(64+8*5+"+";,6"
>08-6-6"+1-*46"8*.0--6"Gz67,+8"+-"65%H"!9&KJ%"@+8"56"F4*OO+86"_"/610"1-;.*0".+5"1*1-+(6"*.80+5+--8*/0".*"
S6--(68l"aH"10,0"1-6-*">80*+--6-*"1>01-6(+,-*"1-67*0,65*"1*(*5*".+556">08-6-6"E5;4*65+"+";,6">0-+,O*65+"
>+8.*-6".*">80.;O*0,+"+5+--8*/6"E*,0"65"!K"q"+,-80"*5"!9:9">+8";,"1*1-+(6"*.80+5+--8*/0".0(*,6-0".6",+4+"
+"7A*6//*0"G',7A*5+8*"+-"65%H"!9&BJ%"
"
2$"
"
Fonti energetiche rinnovabili
Cause dei rischi
Fattori climatici
Variazioni della temperatura ambiente:"3,0"1-;.*0"G@5676"x"M+8-1/AH"!9!#J"10--05*,+6"/A+"75*"*(>*6,-*"
.*"+,+87*6"10568+"10,0"*,E5;+,O6-*".655+"468*6)*5*"/5*(6-*/A+"*,".;+"(0.*%"P,">8*(0"5;070H"5Q*88677*6(+,-0"
10568+"*,E5;+,O6".*8+--6(+,-+"56">80.;O*0,+".+*"(0.;5*"10568*"+H"*,"1+/0,.0"5;070H"-+(>+86-;8+".+55Q68*6"
>*`"+5+46-+"8*.;/0,0"5Q+EE*/*+,O6".+*"(0.;5*%"'5-8*"1-;.*01*"1-*(6,0"/A+"5Q+EE*/*+,O6".+*"(0.;5*"<X".*(*,;*_
1/6".*"/*8/6"50"9H:"q">+8"07,*"6;(+,-0".*"&]C".+556"-+(>+86-;86"GF056;,"x"C+8.…H"!9&2J%"'5-6(*(*"+"
o6Y6j++86"G'5-6(*(*"x"o6Y6j++86H"!9!&J"011+846,0"/A+"5Q6;(+,-0".+556"-+(>+86-;86".04;-0"65"/6()*6_
(+,-0"/5*(6-*/0"6;(+,-6"*5"-6110".*"7;61-0".+*">6,,+55*"<X"6;(+,-6,.0"50"1-8+11"-+8(*/0"+"56"-+(>+86_
-;86".+556"7*;,O*0,+"E0-0.*0.0%"X68*6O*0,*",+55Q*88677*6(+,-0"10568+"+",+556",;40501*-N">0110,0";5-+8*08_
(+,-+"/0,-8*);*8+"6"(0.*E*/A+"*,"E6--08*"/0(+"1>08/*O*6H">054+8+H",+4+H">68-*/+55+"6-(01E+8*/A+"+"65-8*"
+5+(+,-*"/A+"*,E5;+,O6,0"5+">8+1-6O*0,*".+*"1*1-+(*"E0-0405-6*/*%""
X68*6O*0,*",+*"(0.+55*".*">8+/*>*-6O*0,+"+"/6()*6(+,-*",+556"1-67*0,65*-N".+55+"-+(>+86-;8+">0-8+))+80"
>0-+,O*65(+,-+">+8-;8)68+"5+"/0,.*O*0,*".*"/8+1/*-6".+556")*0(6116H"*,E5;+,.0"1;5"/0,-+,;-0".*";(*.*-N"
.+556")*0(6116"+">08-6,.0"*,E*,+"6"/6()*6(+,-*",+556">80.;O*0,+".*")*0(6116"+"6";,6".*(*,;O*0,+".+5"
/0,-+,;-0"+,+87+-*/0"G=+886*O"+-"65%H"!9!#m"F056;,"x"C+8.…H"!9&2J%"3,6"8*.0--6".*1>0,*)*5*-N".*"6/R;6""
>0-8+))+"6,/A+"/8+68+".*EE*/05-N"6556">80.;O*0,+".*")*0(6116H"/0(>8+10"*5"E;,O*0,6(+,-0".+*"1*1-+(*".*"
86EE8+..6(+,-0"6."6/R;6%"P,05-8+H";,"6;(+,-0".+556"-+(>+86-;86">0-8+))+"E68"6;(+,-68+"*"/01-*"0>+86_
-*4*"+"*,E5;*8+"1;55Q+EE*/*+,O6".+55+"6>>68+//A*6-;8+H"/0(>8+16"5Q+EE*/*+,O6".*"7+,+86O*0,+"-+8(*/6".+75*""
*(>*6,-*"6")*0(6116"GF056;,"x"C+8.…H"!9&2m"F;)86(6,*6,"+-"65%H"!9&2J%"bQ*,-+86O*0,+"-86"468*6)*5*H"/0(+"
5Q6;(+,-0".+556"-+(>+86-;86H"5+"468*6O*0,*",+55+">8+/*>*-6O*0,*"+"5Q*88677*6(+,-0"10568+H">;h">0-+,O*65_
(+,-+"65-+868+"56">8+465+,O6".*">68611*-*"+">8040/68+"*,/+,.*"/A+"(*,6//*6,0"5+"E0,-*".*"+,+87*6"8*,,046_
)*5+H"*,">68-*/0568+"75*"*(>*6,-*"6")*0(6116"GiA60"x"b*H"!9&:J%"
Variazioni negli eventi meteorologici estremi: b+"786,.*,6-+"86>>8+1+,-6,0";,"8*1/A*0">68-*/0568+">+8"*"
>6,,+55*"10568*H"1>+/*65(+,-+",+55+"8+7*0,*"(0,-;01+"+">8+65>*,+"GWW'H"!9&2J%""
<6--08*"5+76-*"65"/6()*6(+,-0"/5*(6-*/0H"/0(+"*,E+1-6O*0,*".+5")01-8*/0H"0,.6-+".*"/6508+H"1*//*-N"+"*,/+,.*"
)01/A*4*H"1-6,,0"/05>+,.0"5+"E08+1-+"*,"-;--6"W;80>6"G{0>…†+l"+-"65%H"!9!9J%"\+75*";5-*(*"6,,*H";,"1*7,*E*/6_
-*40".+>+8*(+,-0"E08+1-65+"["1-6-0"011+846-0"*,".*4+81+"50/65*-N"*,"'5-0"'.*7+%"Z;+1-*"+4+,-*"A6,,0"64;-0"
+EE+--*".6,,01*"1;556".*1>0,*)*5*-N".*")*0(6116"+">0110,0"*,E5;+,O68+"56"101-+,*)*5*-N".+556">80.;O*0,+".*"
+,+87*6".6556")*0(6116%"
Fattori non climatici
<6--08*",0,"/5*(6-*/*"/0(+"56"(6,/6,O6".*"/0,16>+405+OO6".+*"8*1/A*"/5*(6-*/*H"56"8+1*5*+,O6"*,1;EE*/*+,-+"
.+55+"*,E861-8;--;8+H"5+"468*6O*0,*",+556".0(6,.6"+",+*">8+OO*".+55Q6/R;6"+"*"/6()*6(+,-*",+55Q;10".+5"
1;050">0110,0"*,E5;+,O68+"56">80.;O*0,+".*"+,+87*6"10568+"+".6")*0(6116"*,"'5-0"'.*7+%"P,">68-*/0568+H"56"
/0(>+-*O*0,+">+8"5+"8*1081+"*.8*/A+"+"-+88*-08*65*">;h"64+8+";,"*(>6--0"1;556".*1>0,*)*5*-N"+"*.0,+*-N".+55+"
68++">+8"56">80.;O*0,+".*"+,+87*6".6")*0(6116%"
Situazione attuale
b+">8*,/*>65*"E0,-*"+,+87+-*/A+"8*,,046)*5*",+5"1*1-+(6"+,+87+-*/0".+55Q'5-0"'.*7+"10,0"*5"E0-0405-6*/0"+"75*"
*(>*6,-*"6"/07+,+86O*0,+"6")*0(6116"GUWT\'H"!9!$J%"b6">0-+,O6"*,1-6556-6".*"E0-0405-6*/0"[".*"/*8/6"#KK"
Sz"GE*,+"!9!#J"GVFWH"!9!$J"/0,";,6">80.;O*0,+"6,,;6">68*"6"#2?"VzA"G08+"6">*+,0"/68*/0"*>0-*OO6-+"
&9:9"AI6,,0J%"P,05-8+"*"/0,1;(*"E*,65*"508.*".*"+,+87*6".6"E0,-*"8*,,046)*5*"*,"'5-0"'.*7+",+5"!9!9"10,0"
1-6-*">+8"5+")*0+,+87*+">68*"6"!2"l-+>"G)*0(611+"105*.+"&!"l-+>H")*0761":"l-+>H")*05*R;*.*"&!l-+>J"GVFWH"
!9!$J%"
Potenziale situazione futura
@+8"*5"E;-;80H"1*">8+4+.+";,"(0.+86-0"6;(+,-0".+556">80.;O*0,+"10568+"*,"W;80>6H"/0,">011*)*5*".*(*,;_
O*0,*",+55Q*88677*6(+,-0"65",08."+"6;(+,-*"65"1;.%"5Q*(>6--0"/0(>5+11*40".*";,"8*1/65.6(+,-0".*"&H:"]CH"!"
]C"+"#"]C"1;55Q+,+87*6"10568+"["1-*(6-0"6"(+,0".*"rI_&"q"GC0((*11*0,+"W;80>+6H"!9!#/J%""
2:"
"
@+8"56")*0(6116H"1*">8+4+.+";,Q+1>6,1*0,+"4+810"*5"\08."W;80>6".+55+"1>+/*+"68)08++"6.6--6-+"65"/65.0"+"
.+55+"/05-;8+"+1-*4+H"(+,-8+"5QW;80>6"(+8*.*0,65+">0-8+))+"1;)*8+";,".+/5*,0",+55Q*.0,+*-N"6556"/8+1/*-6"
E08+1-65+"+",+55+"8+1+"678*/05+"GWW'H"!9&2J%"bw6;(+,-0".+5"8*1/A*0".*"*,/+,.*")01/A*4*H".+5"/6508+"+".+550"
1-8+11"*.8*/0H"648N";,"*(>6--0",+76-*40"1;556".*1>0,*)*5*-N".*")*0(6116"E08+1-65+"*,"'5-0"'.*7+%"
"
Sommario – Rischi principali
a T*1/A*0".*"(677*08+".0(6,.6"+,+87+-*/6"+"6;(+,-0".+5">*//0".*".0(6,.6"
a T*1/A*0".*".6,,*"+"(*,08+"6EE*.6)*5*-N".+55+"*,E861-8;--;8+".*"-861>08-0"+"1-0//677*0".+55Q+,+87*6"
a T*1/A*0".*".6,,*H"/68+,O+".*"+,+87*6"+">0-+,O6"+"*,-+88;O*0,*".+556"1*/;8+OO6".+55Q"
6>>8044*7*0,6(+,-0"
"
Opportunità, vincoli e limiti per l’adattamento
L*"1+7;*-0"10,0"E08,*-+"0>>08-;,*-NH"4*,/05*"+"5*(*-*"+1+(>5*E*/6-*4*".*"6.6--6(+,-0">+8"*5"1*1-+(6"+,+87+_
-*/0".+55Q'5-0"'.*7+%"
"
Tabella 2: Opportunità di adattamento per il sistema energetico altoatesino basate sui rischi identificati causati dai
cambiamenti climatici (adattato da IPCC, 2023).
Rischio di maggiore domanda
energetica e aumento del
picco di domanda
Rischio di danni e minore affidabilità
delle infrastrutture di trasporto e
stoccaggio dell’energia
Rischio di danni, carenze di energia
e potenza e interruzioni della
sicurezza dell’approvvigionamento
a S677*08+";-*5*OO0".*""
-+/,0507*+">+8"56""
7+1-*0,+".+556".0(6,.6"
a @807+--6O*0,+"(0.*E*_
/6-6".+75*"+.*E*/*">+8"*5"
(*75*086(+,-0".+5"86E_
E8+..6(+,-0"G>+8"
+1+(>*0"*1056(+,-0H"
08*+,-6(+,-0H">80-+_
O*0,+"10568+">+8"5+"E*,+_
1-8+J"
a F-6,.68.".*"+EE*/*+,O6"
>+8"*".*1>01*-*4*".*""
86EE8+..6(+,-0"
a F*1-+(*".*"655+8-6">8+_
/0/+">+8"(0.*E*/68+"*5"
/0(>08-6(+,-0".+*"
/0,1;(6-08*"
a ';(+,-0".+556"/6>6/*-N"
.*"7+,+86O*0,+".*"+,+8_
7*6H"E6408+,.0"5+"-+/,0_
507*+"6")6116"8*/A*+1-6"
*.8*/6"G>+8"+1+(>*0"E0_
-0405-6*/0J"
a S+116"*,"1*/;8+OO6".+55+""
*,E861-8;--;8+"8*1>+--0"65"
/5*(6"
a S*75*086(+,-0"+"6.6--6_
(+,-0".+*"(+//6,*1(*".*"
(6,;-+,O*0,+"+"8*1>01-6"6*"
.6,,*"
a '.6--6(+,-0".+556">807+--6_
O*0,+"-+8(*/6".+55+"6>>68+/_
/A*6-;8+"6"-+(>+86-;8+">*`"
+5+46-+"G6."+1+(>*0H"-861E08_
(6-08*"6."65-6"-+(>+86-;86H"
/0,.;--08*"6")6116"6--+,;6_
O*0,+H"+//%J"
a S*75*086(+,-0".+55+"8+-*"
+5+--8*/A+"*,-+8/0,,+11+"
a S*75*086(+,-0".+55+">8+4*_
1*0,*"+".+556">*6,*E*/6O*0,+"
a P.+,-*E*/6O*0,+".*"0>O*0,*".*"
8*50/65*OO6O*0,+"
a P,4+1-*8+"*,">+810,65+""
677*;,-*40">+8"56">;5*O*6".+*"
/0(>0,+,-*".+*">6,,+55*"<X"
>0-8+))+">08-68+"6";,6"(67_
7*08+"+EE*/*+,O6"
a 3,Q0EE+8-6"+5+--8*/6"6EE*.6)*5+"
+"101-+,*)*5+")616-6"1;55+"
E0,-*"+,+87+-*/A+"8*,,046)*5*"
/A+">0116"E68"E80,-+"6*""
>+8*0.*"E8+..*"+");*"""""""""""""
GL;,l+5E56;-+J"8*/A*+.+";,6"
/0()*,6O*0,+".*"*,-+8/0,_
,+11*0,*"+"468*+"0>O*0,*".*"
E5+11*)*5*-NH"-86"/;*"6//;(;50"
*(>*6,-*"*.80+5+--8*/*H")6--+_
8*+"G>+8"+1+(>*0".6"6;-0"
+5+--8*/A+JH">0j+8_-0_761"+"
/+,-865*"E5+11*)*5*"6"761"+")*0_
(6116""
a @86-*/A+"678*/05+"6.6--6-+"
G>+8"+1+(>*0"(*75*08+"*88*76_
O*0,+H"/05-;8+">*`"8+1*1-+,-*"
6556"1*//*-N"+I0"6*">68611*-*J"
2?"
"
a L*1(*11*0,+".+55+"*,E861-8;-_
-;8+">*`"4+//A*+H"R;6,.0""
5w6.+7;6(+,-0",0,"["+/0_
,0(*/6(+,-+"/0,4+,*+,-+"
a S*75*086(+,-0I8*,,040".+55+"
*,E861-8;--;8+"+1*1-+,-*"
a M*0(6116"*(>08-6-6".6"E;08*"
'5-0"'.*7+"
a b6"101-*-;O*0,+".*"(0,0/05_
-;8+"/0,"E08+1-+"(*1-+"+"56"
8*.;O*0,+".+55+"68++".*"-675*0"
8610"
"
L*4+81*"01-6/05*"1*7,*E*/6-*4*"E8+,6,0"*">8078+11*",+55Q6.6--6(+,-0"6*"/6()*6(+,-*"/5*(6-*/*",+5"1+--08+"
+,+87+-*/0H"-86"/;*"8*1081+"5*(*-6-+H"(6,/6,O6".*"/0*,4057*(+,-0".*"1*,705*"*,.*4*.;*"+".+556"/*--6.*,6,O6H"
*,6.+7;6-6"(0)*5*-6O*0,+".*"8*1081+"E*,6,O*68*+H"611+,O6".*"5+6.+81A*>">05*-*/6"+"1/6810"1+,10".*";87+,O6%"
b6"(677*08">68-+".+55+"0>O*0,*".*"6.6--6(+,-0">+8"6EE80,-68+"*"8*1/A*"/A*64+".*>+,.+".6"5*(*-6-+"8*1081+"
*.8*/A+"+"-+88+1-8*H"/0,"/0,1+7;+,-*"/0(>+-*O*0,+"+"/0(>80(+11*H"05-8+"6"*,-+81+/681*"/0,"0>O*0,*".*"(*-*_
76O*0,+"+"14*5;>>*"10/*0+/0,0(*/*%"
"
P"5*(*-*"*,.*/6-*4*".*"6.6--6(+,-0">+8"*5"1*1-+(6"+,+87+-*/0"65-06-+1*,0">0110,0"+11+8+".*1-*,-*"-86"5*(*-*"
-+/,*/*H"10/*0+/0,0(*/*H"6()*+,-65*"+",08(6-*4*%"b6"U6)+556"#"E08,*1/+";,6">6,086(*/6".+55+"-*>*/A+""
5*(*-6O*0,*".*"6.6--6(+,-0%"
"
Tabella 3: Limiti indicativi di adattamento per il sistema energetico altoatesino (adattato da IPCC, 2023).
Limiti tecnici
Limiti socio-economici
Limiti ambientali e normativi
a T*1081+"5*(*-6-+">+8"5Q6--;6_
O*0,+".*"(*1;8+".*"6.6--6_
(+,-0"
a S*1;8+"-+/,*/A+I0>+86-*4+"
,0,">011*)*5*"6"/6;16".+55+""
/686--+8*1-*/A+".+75*"*(>*6,-*"
a WEE*/6/*6"5*(*-6-6".+55+"(*1;8+"
*,"/610".*"/6()*6(+,-*"/5*(6_
-*/*"86>*.*"+".*EE*/*5(+,-+">80_
-+77*)*5*"
a b*(*-*".04;-*"655+"/686--+8*1-*_
/A+"E*1*/A+".+5">6-8*(0,*0"
+.*5*O*0""
a P,4+1-*(+,-*"+5+46-*""
8*/A*+1-*"
a P,4+1-*(+,-*"-80>>0"8*_
1/A*01*"*,"5;07A*"65-6_
(+,-+"4;5,+86)*5*"
a '5-*"/01-*".*"*,1-6556O*0,+"
>+8"6.6--6(+,-*"1;"
56876"1/656"0",;04+"*,_
E861-8;--;8+"
a M6116">80)6)*5*-N"/A+"*"
>+8*/05*"7*;1-*E*/A*,0"
5Q*,4+1-*(+,-0".*"6.6-_
-6(+,-0"
a C0(E08-"+"1*/;8+OO6"
a T*1081+"*.8*/A+"5*(*-6-+"
a 31*".+55Q6/R;6"*,"/0(>+-*_
O*0,+"-86"5080"
a F>01-6(+,-0"*,"65-8+""
50/6O*0,*">80*)*-0"
a '8++"5*(*-6-+">+8"+1>6,_
1*0,*I4*,/05*".*"1>6O*0">+8"
+1>6,.+8+",;04+"*,E861-8;-_
-;8+"G4+8.*J"
a b+7*156O*0,+"1;"+.*E*/*"+"6>_
>68+//A*6-;8+"
Bibliografia
– Abdin, A.F., Fang, Y.P., Zio, E., 2019. A modeling and optimization framework for power systems design with operational flex-
ibility and resilience against extreme heat waves and drought events. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews 112, 706–
719. https://doi.org/10.1016/J.RSER.2019.06.006
– ACI, 2020. Studi e ricerche - Dati e statistiche.
– Altamimi, A., Jayaweera, D., 2021. Reliability of power systems with climate change impacts on hierarchical levels of PV sys-
tems. Electric Power Systems Research 190, 106830. https://doi.org/10.1016/J.EPSR.2020.106830
– Anghileri, D., Botter, M., Castelletti, A., Weigt, H., Burlando, P., 2018. A Comparative Assessment of the Impact of Climate
Change and Energy Policies on Alpine Hydropower. Water Resources Research 54, 9144–9161.
https://doi.org/10.1029/2017WR022289
– Autonome Provinz Bozen Südtirol/ Provincia autonoma di Bolzano - Alto Adige, 2023. “Piano Clima Alto Adige 2040”.
2K"
"
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"
"
22"
"
4.9
Economia
Autori: Jakob Bisignano, Urban Perkmann, Georg Lun (IER)
"
"
Figura 23: Catena degli impatti per illustrare il pericolo, l'esposizione e la vulnerabilità dell'economia
"
Introduzione
\0,"["6,/086"/A*680"R;65*"1*6,0"5+"+16--+"8*>+8/;11*0,*".+*"/6()*6(+,-*"/5*(6-*/*"1;*"1+--08*"+/0,0(*/*"
.+55Q'5-0"'.*7+%"b+"6O*+,.+"10,0"/A*6(6-+"6."6EE80,-68+"1E*.+",+55Q6()*-0".+55Q6>>8044*7*0,6(+,-0"+,+8_
7+-*/0"+".+55+"(6-+8*+">8*(+H".+556"(0)*5*-N"+".+556">80-+O*0,+"/*4*5+"+".+40,0"/0,E80,-681*"/0,"(*1;8+"
.+--6-+".6556">05*-*/6%"bQ6,65*1*"/0(>8+,.+"5+"*,-+84*1-+"6".*+/*"6O*+,.+"65-06-+1*,+"1+5+O*0,6-+"+"/0,1*.+_
86-+"5+6.+8",+550"14*5;>>0"+",+55Q*(>5+(+,-6O*0,+".*"1-86-+7*+".*"6.6--6(+,-0"65"/5*(6%"
P,"R;+1-0"/6>*-050"/0,"*5"-+8(*,+"+/0,0(*6"1Q*,-+,.+"5Q*,.;1-8*6"(6,*E6--;8*+86"+".+*"1+84*O*%"bQ*,.;1-8*6"
(6,*E6--;8*+86"/0(>8+,.+"468*"1+--08*"/0(+"R;+550".+556"-861E08(6O*0,+"+".+55+"/01-8;O*0,*"+"5+"6O*+,.+"
.+5"1+--08+"+,+87+-*/0"+"6()*+,-65+%"F*"1>6O*6".655+">*//05+"*(>8+1+"68-*7*6,65*"655+"786,.*"6O*+,.+"*,.;_
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56"8*1-086O*0,+"G65)+87A*H")68H"8*1-086,-*JH"5+"*(>8+1+".*"-861>08-0"+";,Q6(>*6"76((6".*"E08,*-08*".*"1+84*O*"
6556">+810,6"+"655+"*(>8+1+H"6."+1%",+5"/6(>0".+5"(+.*6".+1*7,"0".+*">688;//A*+8*%"
Esterno
Riduzione della
produttività dei
lavoratori
Aumento del
consumo di
energia e dei costi
di stoccaggio e
trasporto
Perdita di competitiv-
ità delle imprese
locali a causa dei
rischi transitori
Problemi di
approvvigionamento
e riduzione della
sicurezza delle
forniture
Danni a edici,
merci immagaz-
zinate, macchi-
nari o attrezzature
Aumento dei
conitti per lʼuso
dell'acqua
Restrizioni per il
lavoro allʼaperto
Aumento del
rischio di infortuni
sul lavoro
Conseguenze del
calore sulla salute
Danni alle merci
deperibili
Danneggiamento
di materiali
sensibili alla
temperatura (ad
es. bitume)
Mancanza di supporto
per le (piccole) imprese
per arontare questioni
relative alla protezione
del clima, adattamento
al cambiamento
climatico, economia
circolare, obblighi di
reporting, incentivi e
tasse.
Scarsa conoscenza
dellʼanalisi del rischio
climatico e dellʼadat-
tamento climatico,
pressione della
tassonomia EU
Elevata dipendenza
climatica dellʼeconomia
altoatesina (turismo,
agricoltura, lavorazione del
legno, trasporti)
Impatti globali legati
al clima sulla
produzione e sulle
risorse operative (ad
es. olio di palma,
mangimi per animali)
Interruzione delle
catene di approvvi-
gionamento (a livello
globale)
Una sda per il
settore assicurati-
vo
Distruzione di beni
immagazzinati,
macchine o
attrezzature
Danni agli edici
(es.) Danni causati
dall'acqua
Mancata
considerazione del
cambiamento
climatico nella
pianicazione
dellʼuso delle
risorse idriche
Aumento della
domanda dʼacqua
Carenza d'acqua
Aumento dei
periodi di siccità
Clima
estremo a
livello globale
Dipendenti Energia Infrastrutture Acqua Concorrenza
Mezzi di produzione
Legame con i rischi climatici: Gestione delle acque, energia, agricoltura, foreste, turismo, insediamenti, salute, biodiversità.
Costi
Economia
Mancanza di resilienza
climatica degli impianti
di produzione (calore,
pericoli naturali)
Le aree commerciali
sono spesso isole di
calore (alto livello di
impermeabilizzazione,
poco verde e ombra).
Aumento delle
temperature e
del calore
Piogge forti e più
intense, grandine,
temporali, allagamenti
Impatto su
Turismo Agricoltura e
gestione forestale
Industria energetica
Pericoli legati al clima
Impatti climatici
Sistemi esposti
Vulnerabilità, fattori di rischio non climatici
Rischio principale con necessità di intervento
urgente alto medio
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/6-*46(+,-+"/0,"*5"/65.0%"b6"1/6816"/0,/+,-86O*0,+"+"56"8*.;O*0,+".+55+"/6>6/*-N">1*/0(0-08*+"6"/6;16".+5"
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+".+55+"O0,+"*,.;1-8*65*H".04+H"6"/6;16".+556"(6,/6,O6".*"1>6O*"4+8.*H"56"-+(>+86-;86">;h"1;>+868+".;_
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Potenziale situazione futura
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Potenziale di adattamento
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Situazione attuale
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Potenziale situazione futura
^".*EE*/*5+">8+4+.+8+"R;65*"68-*/05*"1686,,0"(*,6//*6-*".6"R;+1-+".*EE*/05-N".*"6>>8044*7*0,6(+,-0%"'5/;,*"
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Potenziale di adattamento
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"
Potenziale situazione futura
b+"(*1;8+".*">80-+O*0,+".+5"/5*(6">0110,0"+11+8+"6.0--6-+"1*6".6*"704+8,*",6O*0,65*"/A+".655Q3W"0".65"70_
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"
Sommario – Rischi principali
a T*1/A*0".*"/0(>80(*11*0,+".+556">80.;--*4*-N".+*"564086-08*"6"/6;16".+55w6;(+,-0".+55+"-+(>+_
86-;8+"+".+55+"0,.6-+".*"/6508+"
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(+-+080507*/*"+1-8+(*"/0(+">*077+"*,-+,1+"+">+8*0.*".*"1*//*-N"
a T*1/A*0".*"6;(+,-0".+*"/0,E5*--*".*";-*5*OO0".+55w6/R;6"-86".*4+81*"1+--08*"+/0,0(*/*"+"56"/*--6.*_
,6,O6"6"/6;16".*">+8*0.*".*"1*//*-N">*`"E8+R;+,-*"
&9$"
"
a T*1/A*0".*"1/681*-N".*"6>>8044*7*0,6(+,-0"+"(*,08+"1*/;8+OO6".+55w6>>8044*7*0,6(+,-0">+8""
5w+/0,0(*6",6O*0,65+".*"(6-+8*+">8*(+"+"1+(*564086-*"6"/6;16".+*"/6()*6(+,-*"/5*(6-*/*"+".*"
E6--08*",0,"/5*(6-*/*"*,"65-8+">68-*".+5"(0,.0"
a T*1/A*0".*">+8.*-6".*"/0(>+-*-*4*-N".+55+"*(>8+1+",6O*0,65*"6"/6;16".*"8*1/A*"-86,1*-08*H"*,">68-*/0_
568+".+*"8*1/A*"8+7056(+,-68*H"6."+1+(>*0"6"1+7;*-0".+55+".*1>01*O*0,*".+5"V8++,"L+65"
"
Bibliografia
– Adler, C., Wester P., Bhatt I., Huggel C., Insarov G.E., Morecroft M.D., Muccione V., and Prakash A., (2022)
Cross-Chapter Paper 5: Mountains. In: Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability.
– Alpino M., Citino L., de Blasio G., Zeni F. (2022): Gli effetti del cambiamento climatico sull’economia italiana. Un progetto di
ricerca della Banca d’Italia
– Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), (2008): Reducing Urban Heat Islands: Compendium of Strategies, Washington D.C.
– Niedrist, G., Zebisch, M., Crespi, A., Iacopino, T., Fritsch, U., Barandun, M., Bertoldi, G., Bottarin, R., Hoffmann, C., Jacob, A.,
Marin, C., Mariz, C., Notarnicola, C., Obojes, N., Premier, V., Renner, K., Sparber, W., Vaccaro, R., & Ventura, B. (2022). Cli-
mate Change Monitoring South Tyrol. Eurac Research. Verfügbar unter: https://doi.org/10.57749/8ZPX-HM12
– Kahlenborn W., Porst L., Voß M., Fritsch U., Renner K., Zebisch M., Wolf M., Schönthaler K., Schauser I., (2021): Klimawir-
kungs- und Risikoanalyse für Deutschland; Umweltbundesamt, Dessau-Roßlau
– Hinterdorfer, M., Sattler, P.und Laaber, M. (2010): Energieeffiziente Klimatisierung. Magistratsabteilung 27 (Hg.). Wien.
– Varghese M.B., Hansen A., Bi P., Pisaniello D. (2018): Are workers at risk of occupational injuries due to heat exposure? A
comprehensive literature review
– Zebisch M., Vaccaro R., Niedrist G., Schneiderbauer S., Streifeneder T., Weiß M., Troi A., Renner K., Pedoth L., Baumgartner
B., Bergonzi V. (2018) Rapporto sul clima 2017, Bolzano, Italia, Eurac Research
&9:"
"
4.10
Temi intersettoriali
Autrici: Lydia Pedoth e Uta Fritsch
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&9K"
"
Bibliografia
– Balas, M., Felderer, A., 2021. Fehlanpassung adressieren - Herausforderungen und Lösungsansätze. Einhaltung der guten
Kriterien zur Anpassung als Beitrag zu einer qualitativ hochwertigen Umsetzung von Anpassungsmaßnahmen. Bundesminis-
terium für Klimaschutz, Umwelt, Energie, Mobilität, Innovation und Technologie, Wien, Österreich.
– Balas, M., Lexer, W., Lindinger, H., Neumann, J., Offenzeller, M., Völler, S., Vollgruber, D., 2024. Die Österreichische Strategie
zur Anpassung an den Klimawandel. Bundesministerium für Klimaschutz, Umwelt, Energie, Mobilität, Innovation und Techno-
logie, Wien, Österreich.
– Bednar-Friedl, B., Knittel, N., Leitner, M., Watkiss, P., 2017. PACINAS - Ausgaben des Bundes für Klimawandelanpassung.,
Factsheet Nr. 4. Wegener. IIASA, Umweltbundesamt, AIT, Uni Graz.
– IPCC, I.P.O.C.C., 2023. Climate Change 2022 – Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability: Working Group II Contribution to the
Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 1st ed. Cambridge University Press.
https://doi.org/10.1017/9781009325844
– Lexer, W., Ahamer, G., König, M., 2016. Fehlanpassung im Kontext von privater Anpassung an den Klimawandel. Kriterien,
Entwicklung eines Bewertungsrahmens und Anwendungsbeispiele, PATCH:ES. Wien, Österreich.
– Zebisch, M., Renner, K., Pittore, M., Fritsch, U., Fruchter, S. R., Kienberger, S., Schinko, T., Sparkes, E., Hagenlocher, M.,
Schneiderbauer, S., Delves, J., 2023. Climate Risk Sourcebook. Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit.
&9B"
"
5 Governance
"
P5"1+7;+,-+"/6>*-050"6EE80,-6"56"R;+1-*0,+".+556"704+8,6,/+"+H".*"/0,1+7;+,O6H".*"/0(+">0-+8"7+1-*8+"*"
8*1/A*"/5*(6-*/*"*.+,-*E*/6-*"6--864+810"5+"/0(>+-+,O+".+556"@804*,/*6%"@+8">8*(6"/016"1Q*,R;6.86"*5"-+(6"
.+55Q6.6--6(+,-0"6*"/6()*6(+,-*"/5*(6-*/*"655Q*,-+8,0".+5"1*1-+(6">05*-*/0"(;5-*5*4+550H"1*">801+7;+"/0,"
5Q+16(+"6//;86-0".+55+"/0(>+-+,O+">804*,/*65*">+8">0*">61168+"6."6,65*OO68+"*".0/;(+,-*"1-86-+7*/*"1+--0_
8*65*"+"*,-+81+--08*65*%"P,.*4*.;68+"50"1-6-;1"R;0">05*-*/0"[">0*"1+84*-0">+8"8+.*7+8+"5+"86//0(6,.6O*0,*".*"
*,-+84+,-0",+/+1168*+">+8"655*,+68+"*".0/;(+,-*"1-86-+7*/*"+".*"*,.*8*OO0"65">8*,/*>*0".+556"8+1*5*+,O6""
/5*(6-*/6%""
" "
&92"
"
5.1
L’adattamento ai cambiamenti climatici nel quadro della
governance multilivello
Autrice: Mariachiara Alberton
"
@!;+D,;;'!+$%,&$3*+'$3;,"7*N"*5">8*(0"6//08.0"*,-+8,6O*0,65+"1;*"/6()*6(+,-*"/5*(6-*/*"fC0,4+,O*0,+_R;6_
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1-6)*5*OO6O*0,+".+55+"+(*11*0,*".*"761"/5*(65-+86,-*H">8+4+.+"/A+"75*"1-6-*"E*8(6-68*"6.0--*,0"(*1;8+".*"
6.6--6(+,-0H">80786((*",6O*0,65*"+H"04+"0>>08-;,0H"8+7*0,65*"G68--%"#%#m"$%&"5+--%")m"$%&"5+--%"+m"$%$J%"P5"
1;//+11*40"@80-0/0550".*"{Y0-0".+5"!99:"1-6)*5*1/+"/A+"75*"1-6-*"8+65*OO*,0">80786((*",6O*0,65*"+"8+7*0,65*"
.*"6.6--6(+,-0"G68--%"&9%&"5+--%")m"&9%&"5+--%")"G*Jm"&9%&"5+--%")"G**Jm"&!%BJ%"\+5"!9&:"/0,"56"E*8(6".+55Q'//08.0"
.*"@68*7*"1*">8+4+.+"6,/A+"56"(+116"*,"6--0".*"(*1;8+">+8"5Q6.6--6(+,-0"65"/6()*6(+,-0"/5*(6-*/0H"E*,65*O_
O6-+"6."6//8+1/+8+"56"/6>6/*-N".+*">6+1*".*"6.6--681*"675*"+EE+--*"644+81*".+*"/6()*6(+,-*"/5*(6-*/*%"
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4*1*0,+"6"5;,70"-+8(*,+"6EE*,/Ac"5Q3W".*4+,-*";,6"10/*+-N"8+1*5*+,-+"6*"/6()*6(+,-*"/5*(6-*/*H">*+,6(+,-+"
6.6--6-6"675*"+EE+--*"*,+4*-6)*5*".+*"/6()*6(+,-*"/5*(6-*/*"+,-80"*5"!9:9%"b6"1-86-+7*6"1>01-6"5Q6--+,O*0,+"
.6556">*6,*E*/6O*0,+"655Q*(>5+(+,-6O*0,+".+55+"(*1;8+".*"6.6--6(+,-0"/5*(6-*/0H"*,"5*,+6"/0,"5Q'//08.0".*"
@68*7*"+",+5"105/0".*"65-8+"/0,4+,O*0,*"*,-+8,6O*0,65*"/0(+"*5"R;6.80".*"8*E+8*(+,-0".*"Sendai">+8"56"8*.;_
O*0,+".+5"8*1/A*0".*".*161-8*".+5"!9&:"+"5Qg'7+,.6"!9#9">+8"50"14*5;>>0"101-+,*)*5+g%"b6"1-86-+7*6"+;80>+6"1*"
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.+556",+;-865*-N"/5*(6-*/6",+55Q3W"+,-80"*5"!9:9%"b6"b+77+"1;5"/5*(6H"*,">68-*/0568+H"8*/0,01/+"5Q6.6--6_
(+,-0"/0(+";,6"/0(>0,+,-+"E0,.6(+,-65+".+556"8*1>01-6"750)65+"6*"/6()*6(+,-*"/5*(6-*/*"+"*(>0,+"
675*"1-6-*"(+()8*"+"655Q3W".*"86EE08O68+"56"5080"/6>6/*-N".*"6.6--6(+,-0H"86EE08O68+"56"8+1*5*+,O6"+"8*.;88+"56"
4;5,+86)*5*-N"6*"/6()*6(+,-*"/5*(6-*/*%"L6-6"56",6-;86"1*1-+(*/6".+55+">05*-*/A+".*"6.6--6(+,-0H"1*""
>8+4+.+"/A+"5+"6O*0,*"/A+"46,,0"*,"R;+1-6".*8+O*0,+"1*6,0"6--;6-+"*,"(0.0"*,-+786-0"/0,"65-8+"*,*O*6-*4+"
.+55Q3W"G>+8"+1+(>*0H"56"1-86-+7*6"1;556")*0.*4+81*-NH"1;55+"8*1-8;--;86O*0,*H"*">*6,*".Q6O*0,+">+8"5Q+/0,0(*6"
/*8/0568+"+">+8"5Q*,R;*,6(+,-0"O+80H"5+"1-86-+7*+"E08+1-65+H"1;5"1;050H"+">+8";,6"(0)*5*-N"101-+,*)*5+"+""
*,-+55*7+,-+J%"b6"1-86-+7*6"+4*.+,O*6H"*,">68-*/0568+H"56",+/+11*-N".*"6.0--68+"+"*(>5+(+,-68+">05*-*/A+".*"
6.6--6(+,-0"/5*(6-*/0"6"07,*"5*4+550".*"704+8,6,/+"1*6"6"5*4+550",6O*0,65+"/A+"50/65+H"*,/5;.+,.0"75*"6--08*"
>;))5*/*"+">8*46-*".+*"468*">6+1*"(+()8*%""
"
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(+,-0"6*"/6()*6(+,-*"/5*(6-*/*"["1-6-0"56">;))5*/6O*0,+".+556"fF-86-+7*6",6O*0,65+".*"6.6--6(+,-0"6*"
/6()*6(+,-*"/5*(6-*/*g"GF\'CJ%"P,"R;+1-0".0/;(+,-0"10,0"1-6-*"*,.*4*.;6-*"*">8*,/*>65*"*(>6--*".+*""
/6()*6(+,-*"/5*(6-*/*">+8";,6"1+8*+".*"1+--08*"10/*0_+/0,0(*/*"+",6-;865*"+"10,0"1-6-+">80>01-+"6O*0,*".*"
6.6--6(+,-0"6"-65*"*(>6--*%"b6"F\'C"["1-6-6"6>>8046-6"/0,".+/8+-0".*8+--08*65+",%"B?I!9&:%"@+8".68+"6-_
-;6O*0,+"6"-65+".+/8+-0".*8+--08*65+H"["1-6-6"644*6-6"5Q+56)086O*0,+".+5"f@*6,0",6O*0,65+".*"6.6--6(+,-0"6*"
/6()*6(+,-*"/5*(6-*/*"G@\'CCJH"6>>8046-0"/0,".+/8+-0"(*,*1-+8*65+",%"$#$".+5"!&".*/+()8+"!9!#%"P""
1+--08*"077+--0".+5"@\'CC"10,0"&2D"-861>08-*H"+,+87*6H"8*1081+"*.8*/A+H"678*/05-;86H"E08+1-+H">+1/6"(68*-_
-*(6H"6/R;6/05-;86H".*11+1-0"7+0507*/0H"*.80507*/0"+"*.86;5*/0H"+/01*1-+(*"6/R;+"*,-+8,+"+".*"-86,1*O*0,+H"
+/01*1-+(*"(68*,*"+"-+88+1-8*H"*,1+.*6(+,-*";8)6,*H">6-8*(0,*0"/;5-;865+H"165;-+H"-;8*1(0"+"*(>6--*"10/*0_
+/0,0(*/*%"bQ6.6--6(+,-0"8*7;68.6"1*6"(*1;8+"*,E861-8;--;865*H"1*6"/6()*6(+,-*"/0(>08-6(+,-65*".+*"1*,_
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.*"4*-6"+"6;(+,-68+"56"/0,16>+405+OO6".+*">0-+,O*65*"*(>6--*".+*"/6()*6(+,-*"/5*(6-*/*"+"*"/0(_
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!% 78++,D"(*1;8+")616-+"1;556",6-;86"G,6-;8+")61+."105;-*0,J"/A+"*(>*+76,0"*"1+84*O*"+/01*1-+(*/*"
E08,*-*".675*"6()*+,-*",6-;865*">+8"(*75*0868+"56"8+1*5*+,O6".+*"-+88*-08*%"
&&9"
"
#% 78+YD"(*1;8+"*,E861-8;--;865*"+"-+/,0507*/A+"/A+"8+,.0,0"75*"+.*E*/*H"75*"*(>*6,-*H"5+"*,E861-8;--;8+H"
5+"8+-*"+"*"-+88*-08*">*`"8+1*5*+,-*%"'5"@\'CC"1*"6//0(>67,6";,"655+76-0"/0,-+,+,-+";,".6-6)61+".*"
>011*)*5*"6O*0,*".*"6.6--6(+,-0"/A+"*"468*"+,-*"-+88*-08*65*">0110,0"*,-86>8+,.+8+%"
" "
&&&"
"
5.2
Il quadro provinciale: poteri legislativi e amministrativi
della Provincia autonoma di Bolzano
Autrice: Mariachiara Alberton
"
\+5"R;6.80"(;5-*5*4+550"/01d"+4*.+,O*6-0H"1*"*,1+8*1/+"5Q6O*0,+".+556"@804*,/*6"6;-0,0(6".*"M05O6,0%"P,""
7+,+865+H"5Q+1+8/*O*0".+*">0-+8*"5+7*156-*4*"+"6((*,*1-86-*4*".+556"@804*,/*6"6;-0,0(6".*"M05O6,0"[".*1/*>5*_
,6-0".6556"C01-*-;O*0,+"+".6550"F-6-;-0".*"6;-0,0(*6H"/A+".+4+"+11+8+"5+--0"6,/A+"6556"5;/+".+556"/01*._
.+--6"f/56;1056".*"(677*08"E6408+g"G68-%"&9H"5%"/01-%"\%"#I!99&J%"P,")61+"6"-65+"/56;1056D""
a 56"/0(>+-+,O6"/0,/088+,-+"+"8+1*.;65+"6--8*);*-6".655Q68-%"&&K"C01-*-;O*0,+"655+"T+7*0,*"08.*,68*+"1*"
+1-+,.+"6,/A+"6556"@804*,/*6"6;-0,0(6%"C*h"*(>5*/6"56">011*)*5*-N">+8"56"@804*,/*6"6;-0,0(6".*""
6(>5*68+"5Q+5+,/0".+55+"(6-+8*+"6--8*);*-+".6550"F-6-;-0"
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>5*,6">*`"E6408+405+"-86"R;+556".+550"F-6-;-0"+"R;+556".+55Q68-%"&&KH"/0((*"#"+"$H"C01-%"
"
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O6,0D"
a Competenza primaria G68-%"B"F-%"';-%JD"56"@804*,/*6"A6"56">0-+1-N".*"+(6,68+",08(+"5+7*156-*4+"+,-80"*"
5*(*-*".+556"C01-*-;O*0,+"+"*">8*,/*>*".+55Q08.*,6(+,-0"7*;8*.*/0".+556"T+>;))5*/6"+"/0,"*5"8*1>+--0".+75*"
0))5*7A*"*,-+8,6O*0,65*"+".+75*"*,-+8+11*",6O*0,65*H",0,/Ac".+55+",08(+"E0,.6(+,-65*".+55+"8*E08(+"
+/0,0(*/0_10/*65*".+556"T+>;))5*/6m"
a Competenza secondaria G68-%"2"F-%"';-%JD"56"@804*,/*6"A6"56">0-+1-N".*"+(6,68+",08(+"5+7*156-*4+""
+,-80"*"5*(*-*".+556"C01-*-;O*0,+"+"*">8*,/*>*".+55Q08.*,6(+,-0"7*;8*.*/0".+556"T+>;))5*/6"+"/0,"*5"8*_
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.+55+"8*E08(+"+/0,0(*/0_10/*65*".+556"T+>;))5*/6"+".+*">8*,/*>*"1-6)*5*-*".655+"5+77*".+550"F-6-0m""
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(6-+8*+D"-;-+56".+556"165;-+m"65*(+,-6O*0,+m">80-+O*0,+"/*4*5+m"704+8,0".+5"-+88*-08*0m">08-*"+"6+80_
>08-*"/*4*5*m"786,.*"8+-*".*"-861>08-0"+".*",64*76O*0,+m">80.;O*0,+H"-861>08-0"+".*1-8*);O*0,+",6O*0,65+"
.+55Q+,+87*6m"46508*OO6O*0,+".+*")+,*"/;5-;865*"+"6()*+,-65*"+">80(0O*0,+"+"0876,*OO6O*0,+".*"6--*4*-N"
/;5-;865*m"
a Competenza 8+1*.;65+/esclusiva"*,"07,*"(6-+8*6",0,"+1>8+116(+,-+"8*1+846-6"6556"5+7*156O*0,+".+550"
F-6-0"G68-%"&&K"/%"$"C01-%"*,")61+"6556"f/56;1056".*"(677*08"E6408+g"+e"68-%"&9"5%"/01-%",%"#I!99&J%"
"
P,")61+"655Q68-%"&?".+550"F-6-;-0H"56"@804*,/*6"70.+".*"autonomia amministrativa",+55+"(6-+8*+"*,"/;*"A6"
>0-+8+"5+7*156-*40"G*,/5;16"autonomia regolamentare"6*"1+,1*".+75*"68--%":#_:$"F-%J%"P,E*,+H"56"@804*,/*6"A6"
>0-+8* in ambito tributario."
b+"1>+/*E*/A+"/0(>+-+,O+".+556"@804*,/*6"6;-0,0(6".*1-*,-+">+8"6()*-*"1+--08*65*"+"-8614+8165*"/A+">01_
10,0"*,/*.+8+"1;55+"6O*0,*".*"6.6--6(+,-0"10,0"8*>08-6-+",+5">686786E0"1+7;+,-+%"
" "
&&!"
"
5.3
Analisi delle politiche della Provincia autonoma di Bolzano
rilevanti per l’adattamento
Autrice: Mariachiara Alberton
"
b6"(677*08">68-+".+*"8*1/A*"/5*(6-*/*"*.+,-*E*/6-*">+8"56"@804*,/*6"6;-0,0(6".*"M05O6,0"10,0"077+--0".*""
>05*-*/A+"/A+"8*/6.0,0",+556"/0(>+-+,O6"/0,/088+,-+".+550"F-6-0"*-65*6,0"+".+556"@804*,/*6"6;-0,0(6".*"
M05O6,0%"C0(+"6,-*/*>6-0H"56"F\'C"+"*5"@\'CC"/01-*-;*1/0,0"56"/08,*/+">+8"*,R;6.868+"5+">05*-*/A+".*"6.6-_
-6(+,-0"6"5*4+550",6O*0,65+H"(+,-8+"5Q6--;6O*0,+".+55+"6O*0,*".*"6.6--6(+,-0"1*"/0,/8+-*OO6"10>86--;--0"
,+55+">05*-*/A+"1+--08*65*"/A+"8*/6.0,0"10--0"56"1E+86">804*,/*65+%"
P".*4+81*"1-8;(+,-*".*">*6,*E*/6O*0,+"+"*".0/;(+,-*"5+7*156-*4*H"1*6"-8614+8165*"1*6"1+--08*65*">804*,/*65*H"10,0"
6,65*OO6-*".*"1+7;*-0"/0,">68-*/0568+"6--+,O*0,+"65"-+(6".+55Q6.6--6(+,-0"+".+*"8*1/A*"/5*(6-*/*">8*,/*>65*%"
"
5-6-"!Q%&3%,=+,!,!+!>+3$+!>&'D+$:+3;+!=,$,&3;+!,!%&31D,&13;+!&+;,D3$%+!>,&!;N3(3%%38,$%'!
a [K3%%'!(+!1'1%,$+9+;+%B!>,&!;N@;%'!@(+=,Z!,![F-86-+7*+!(+!1'1%,$+9+;+%B!\!RD,&X(3X!2'&!T)%)&,Z."P,"R;+_
1-0"R;6.80H"*5"-+(6".+55Q6.6--6(+,-0"6*"/6()*6(+,-*"/5*(6-*/*"["105-6,-0"*,.*8+--6(+,-+"+">68O*65_
(+,-+"077+--0".*"6--+,O*0,+"+"*,-+84+,-0%""
a [K+3$'!7;+83!@;%'!@(+=,!/454Z,"6>>8046-0"*5"&B"5;75*0"!9!#".6556"V*;,-6">804*,/*65+"65"E*,+".*"867_
7*;,7+8+";,6"10/*+-N"/5*(6-*/6(+,-+",+;-86"+,-80"*5"!9$9%"P5">*6,0">8+4+.+"6,/A+"5Q+56)086O*0,+".*"
;,">*6,0".*"8+1*5*+,O6"50/65+"G1-86-+7*6".*"6.6--6(+,-0">+8"5w'5-0"'.*7+J")616-0"1;5">*6,0",6O*0,65+"
@\'CC%"F+))+,+"75*"*,-+84+,-*"+"5+"(*1;8+">8+4*1-+"8*7;68.*,0"10>86--;--0"56"(*-*76O*0,+".+5"/6()*6_
(+,-0"/5*(6-*/0H"65/;,*"/6(>*".Q6O*0,+"/0(+"(0)*5*-N"+"*,E861-8;--;8+"8*>08-6,0"8*E+8*(+,-*"1>+/*E*/*"
65"-+(6".+55Q6.6--6(+,-0%"P,">68-*/0568+H"1*">8+4+.+"/A+"*",;04*">807+--*".*"*,E861-8;--;8+"1-86.65*"
1*6,0"8+1*5*+,-*"675*"+4+,-*"(+-+080507*/*"644+81*"+"675*"+EE+--*".+*"/6()*6(+,-*"/5*(6-*/*%""
a [Q%&3%,=+3!(+!1D+;)>>'!&,=+'$3;,!/4/"M/4/FZ,"6>>8046-6"/0,"L+5*)+86".+556"V*;,-6">804*,/*65+",%"$$&"
.+5"!9!9H"/01-*-;*1/+"56")61+">+8"5Q08*+,-6(+,-0"1-86-+7*/0".+*".0/;(+,-*".*">80786((6O*0,+".+556"
@804*,/*6"';-0,0(6".*"M05O6,0">+8"*"<0,.*"F-8;--;865*"3W%"b6",+/+11*-N".*"6.6--681*"6*"/6()*6(+,-*"
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7*+"65>*,+H"V8++,"U+/A,0507*+1%"
" "
&&#"
"
5.4
Strategie e legislazione settoriali rilevanti per
l’adattamento – analisi settoriale
Autore e autrice: Michael Pörnbacher e Mariachiara Alberton
"
P">*6,*">804*,/*65*H"5+"1-86-+7*+"+"56"5+7*156O*0,+"1+--08*65+"10,0"1-6-*"6,65*OO6-*">+8"07,*"1+--08+".+1/8*--0"65"
/6>*-050"$"+"*,"/0,E08(*-N"/0,"56"1-8;--;86"6((*,*1-86-*46".+556"@804*,/*6%"'*"E*,*".*";,6"465;-6O*0,+".+556"
5080"6.+7;6-+OO6">+8"56"/088+--6"7+1-*0,+".+*"8*1/A*"/5*(6-*/*H"*"8*1/A*"/A*64+"10,0"1-6-*"/0,E80,-6-*"/0,"*"
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"
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"
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a ;,6"E8+R;+,-+"(6,/6,O6".*";,6">*6,*E*/6O*0,+".*,6(*/6"0"5Q*,-+786O*0,+".+*"8*1/A*"/5*(6-*/*",+75*"
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56/;,+",+55Q6--;6O*0,+"
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.+75*"0876,*"+".+*"/0(*-6-*"
a F0,0"1-6-+"*,.*4*.;6-+H"*,"(*1;86"(*,08+H"6,/A+"56"(6,/6-6"*,-+786O*0,+".+*"8*1/A*"/5*(6-*/*",+5""
/65/050".+*"/01-*"+"5Q*,6.+7;6-+OO6".+55+"1-8;--;8+"+".+55+"/6>6/*-N"*1-*-;O*0,65*%""
Z;+1-+"56/;,+"7+,+8*/A+",+75*"1-8;(+,-*"10,0".+1/8*--+"R;*".*"1+7;*-0"*,")61+"65"1+--08+"+"/0,-+1-;65*O_
O6-+"/0,"8*1/A*"/5*(6-*/*"1>+/*E*/*%"
"
9"!"#
X(/4.)(+,(33(+6-Q:(++
Distribuzione settoriale delle competenze
7'8>-!>&+83&+3"+e"68-%"B">;,-0"!$"F-%"';-0,0(*6D"'>,&,!+(&3);+:A,!(,;;3!%,&*3<!P)3&%3<!,!P)+$%3!:3%,='M
&+3-""""
7'8>-!:'$:'&&,$%,"+e"68-%"2">;,-0"2"F-%"';-0,0(*6D")%+;+**3*+'$,!(,;;,!3:P),!>)99;+:A,!,1:;)1,!;,!
=&3$(+!(,&+D3*+'$+!3!1:'>'!+(&',;,%%&+:'-""
7'8>-!>&+83&+3"+e"'8-%"B">;,-0"&#"F-%"';-0,0(*6D"'>,&,!(+!>&,D,$*+'$,"+".*">80,-0"10//0810">+8""
/656(*-N">;))5*/A+"""
"
&&$"
"
Tabella 4: Sintesi dei rischi principali, dell'idoneità degli strumenti politici per la gestione dei rischi climatici, dell'o-
rizzonte temporale da considerare e delle responsabilità (P=competenza esclusiva della Provincia, S=competenza
esclusiva dello Stato, C=concorrente) per il settore della gestione delle acque
"
Rischi chiave settoriali (abbreviatura)
Idoneità
Orizzonte
temporale
Responsabilità
Mancanza d’acqua per garantire il deflusso ecologico
Media
Breve termine
C
Impatti sulla salute degli ecosistemi a causa dell’au-
mento di temperature delle acque
Bassa
Medio termine
C
Perturbazioni dei bacini e dei sistemi fluviali a causa
dell’aumento del trasporto di sedimenti (sciogli-
mento dei ghiacciai)
Media
Medio termine
C
Diminuzione della quantità e della qualità dell’acqua
per uso potabile
Alta
Lungo termine
C
Mancanza d’acqua per l’irrigazione delle colture e
dei prati
Media
Lungo termine
C
Mancanza d’acqua per la produzione di energia
elettrica
Bassa
Lungo termine
C
Mancanza d’acqua per garantire l’innevamento
artificiale
Media
Lungo termine
C
Mancanza d’acqua per garantire gli usi idrici a fini
ricreativi nel periodo estivo
Bassa
Lungo termine
C
Danni agli ecosistemi, agli insediamenti e alle
infrastrutture a causa delle inondazioni
Media
Lungo termine
C
"
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&&:"
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"
9"!"0
J'.,'2(8/'*K++
Distribuzione settoriale delle competenze
7'8>-!,1:;)1+D3!1%3%3;,D"+e"'8-%"&&KH"/%"!"5+--%"1"%)%,;3!(,;;N389+,$%,<!(,;;N,:'1+1%,83!,!(,+!9,$+!:);%)M
&3;+gH"8*1+846-*"6556"/0(>+-+,O6"+1/5;1*46".+550"F-6-0""
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9+,$%3;+gH"6--8*);*-6"6556"/0(>+-+,O6"/0,/088+,-+".*"F-6-0"+"T+7*0,*""
7'8>-!>&+83&+3D"+e"68-%"BH">;,-0"&:"F-%"';-0,0(*6":3::+3!,!>,1:3m"68-%B">;,-0"&?"3;>+:';%)&3!,!>3&:A+"
>+8"56">80-+O*0,+".+556"E5086"+".+556"E6;,6"
Tabella 5: Sintesi dei rischi principali, dell’idoneità degli strumenti politici per la gestione dei rischi climatici,
dell’orizzonte temporale da considerare e delle responsabilità (P=competenza esclusiva della Provincia, S=compe-
tenza esclusiva dello Stato, C=concorrente) per il settore Biodiversità
"
Rischi chiave settoriali (abbreviatura)
Idoneità
Orizzonte
temporale
Responsabilità
Rischi per la biodiversità di ecosistemi forestali (boschi
rari)
Bassa
Lungo termine
P + C
Rischi per la biodiversità forestale: aumento dell'
immigrazione di specie invasive
Media
Breve termine
P
Rischi per la biodiversità forestale: incendi boschivi più
frequenti
Alta
Medio termine
P
Rischi per gli habitat di alta montagna: espansione delle
specie e delle comunità che prediligono il calore
Media
Medio termine
P + C
Rischi per gli habitat legati ai ghiacciai e le loro specie
(scioglimento dei ghiacciai)
Bassa
Lungo termine
S + P + C
Rischi per specie di alta montagna con popolazioni
limitate e isolate
Bassa
Lungo termine
S + P + C
&&?"
"
Rischi per le comunità di specie presenti nelle aree
agricole ad alto valore naturale
Media
Medio termine
S + P + C
Rischi per le comunità isolate e limitate di specie delle
torbiere e dei laghi
Bassa
Medio termine
S + P + C
Rischi per gli habitat delle torbiere: potenziale perdita di
zone umide
Media
Medio termine
S + P + C
Rischi per le comunità lacustri
Bassa
Medio termine
S + P + C
Rischi per la biodiversità dei corsi d'acqua dovuto al
prosciugamento dei torrenti
Media
Breve termine
S + C
Rischi per la biodiversità dei corsi d'acqua durante a
causa della ridotta portata d'acqua e delle temperature
dell’acqua troppo elevate
Media
Medio termine
S+ C
Rischi per la biodiversità dei corsi d'acqua a causa
dell'invasione di neobiota invasive
Alta
Breve termine
S+ C
"
C0(+"7*N"8*/08.6-0H"7686,-*8+"*5");0,0"1-6-0"+/0507*/0".+*"/081*".Q6/R;6"[";,6">8*08*-N"61105;-6".+556">*6_
,*E*/6O*0,+H"6,/A+"1+"1>+110"*"8*1/A*"/5*(6-*/*",0,"10,0">*+,6(+,-+"*,-+786-*",+*">8*,/*>*".*">*6,*E*/6O*0,+"
10--+1*%"@+8">8+1+8468+"5+"1>+/*+"*--*/A+"868+"0"(*,6//*6-+H".0>0"E+,0(+,*"+//+O*0,65*"1*">0110,0"6.0-_
-68+"(*1;8+"/A+H"*,1*+(+"6556"7+1-*0,+">8+4+,-*46".+55+">08-6-+"8+1*.;+H".*4+,-6,0"1-8;(+,-*"E0,.6(+,_
-65*">+8"E68"E80,-+"6*">+8*0.*".*"1*//*-N%"k5-8+"6"R;+1-+"0>O*0,*".*"*,-+84+,-0">+8">;,-*H">+8hH"56"7+1-*0,+"
>806--*46"+"1-8;--;865+".+55+">0>056O*0,*"*--*/A+",+*"/081*".Q6/R;6"+",+*"567A*",0,"["6,/086">*+,6(+,-+"
14*5;>>6-6"6"/6;16".+55Q6;(+,-0".+556"-+(>+86-;86%"
@+8"R;6,-0"8*7;68.6"56")*0.*4+81*-N"E08+1-65+H"4*"[";,6"/8+1/+,-+"/0,16>+405+OO6".+556",+/+11*-N".*".*4+8_
1*E*/68+"56"/0(>01*O*0,+".+55+"1>+/*+"68)08++"+".*"6>>08-68+"*",+/+1168*"6.+7;6(+,-*"6556"7+1-*0,+".+55+"
E08+1-+"+".+556"E6;,6"1+546-*/6"6"/6;16".+55Q*,/8+(+,-0".*"+4+,-*".6,,01*%"U;--64*6H"/0(+"7*N".+--0H"10,0"
>8+110/Ac"*,+1*1-+,-*"(*1;8+"1>+/*E*/A+"405-+"6."6EE80,-68+"*"8*1/A*"/5*(6-*/*">+8"56")*0.*4+81*-N"E08+1-65+H"
/A+"+1;5*,0".655+".*1>01*O*0,*"7+,+865*"/0(+"*5"/0,-80550".+55+"1>+/*+"*,461*4+%"
@+8"/0()6--+8+"75*"*,/+,.*")01/A*4*"10,0"7*N"1-6-+"6--;6-+"65/;,+"(*1;8+H"/01d"/0(+"1E08O*"10,0"1-6-*"E6--*"
>+8"86EE08O68+"56")*0.*4+81*-NH"6."+1%",+556">807+--6O*0,+".+*"(687*,*".+55+"E08+1-+%"S6,/6">+8h"6,/086";,"
6>>80//*0"1-8;--;865+"6*"8*1/A*"/5*(6-*/*">+8"75*"+/01*1-+(*"E08+1-65*H"/0(+"6--864+810"50"1>01-6(+,-0".*"
*,-+8+"/0(;,*-N"E08+1-65*%"\+55Q6()*-0".+556"7*N"/*-6-6"1+8*+".*".*1>01*O*0,*"405-+"6"/0()6--+8+"5+"1>+/*+"
*,461*4+"+"6">80-+77+8+"5+"1>+/*+"6,*(65*"+"4+7+-65*"1+546-*/A+H",0,/Ac"6"-;-+568+"75*"+/01*1-+(*"8*5+46,-*"
>+8"56"/0,1+846O*0,+".+556",6-;86H"5Q6--+,O*0,+"4*+,+"8*405-6"10>86--;--0"655+"68++";(*.+H"(6"6,/A+"6*"1*-*"
1+//A*H"/0,"8+56-*4+"5*(*-6O*0,*".Q;10%"U;--64*6H"*5"/8*-+8*0".+550"1-6-0".*"/0,1+846O*0,+"E6408+405+"+".+75*"
A6)*-6-">8*08*-68*".+E*,*-*H"/A+"4*+,+"6>>5*/6-0">8*,/*>65(+,-+"*,"R;+1-0"/610H"1*")616"+11+,O*65(+,-+"1;55+"
/0,.*O*0,*"*,*O*65*"6--;65*"+",0,"-*+,+"/0,-0".+5">011*)*5+"6;(+,-0".+556">8+11*0,+"1;75*"*,.*4*.;*"+"1;55+"
/0(;,*-N"6"/6;16".+75*"14*5;>>*"/5*(6-*/*"+"R;*,.*".+55+"(*1;8+".*"/0,1+846O*0,+">806--*4+%"S*1;8+".*">80_
-+O*0,+"+"(6,;-+,O*0,+".*EE+8+,O*6-+"+"1/675*0,6-+H"/0(+",+5"@68/0"\6O*0,65+".+550"F-+54*0H"/0,1+,-0,0"
*,-+84+,-*"(*86-*">+8">80-+77+8+"+"86EE08O68+"56")*0.*4+81*-N"(6H",0,01-6,-+"56"5080",6-;86"1-86-+7*/6H""
6,/A+"R;+1-*"1-8;(+,-*"(6,/6,0".*";,6">801>+--*46"E;-;86"+1>5*/*-6(+,-+"5+76-6"65"/5*(6%"',/A+"4*+-68+"
65/;,+"6--*4*-NH"/0(+"5*(*-68+"5Q;-*5*OO0"*,"68++"(05-0"1E8;--6-+H"[";,6"(*1;86"8*E+8*-6">8*,/*>65(+,-+"6."
65/;,+"68++">80-+--+H"/0(+"\6-;86"!999H"+."["E0,.6(+,-65+">+8"8*;1/*8+"6"(6,-+,+8+"*,-6--*"75*"+/01*_
1-+(*"+">+8"E6408*8+H"/0(+"5+"(*1;8+"E6/05-6-*4+"0">80(0O*0,65*H"5Q*,-+8/0,,+11*0,+"+"56"/0,,+--*4*-N".+75*"
A6)*-6-%"',/A+"*,"R;+1-0"/610H">+8hH"*"8*1/A*"/5*(6-*/*",0,"10,0"+1>5*/*-6(+,-+"/0,1*.+86-*",+*"8*1>+--*4*"
>*6,*".*"7+1-*0,+H",c",+55+"465;-6O*0,*".*"*(>6--0"1-86-+7*/0".+*">807+--*"*,"R;+1-+"68++%"<0,.6(+,-65+"*,"
R;+1-0"/0,-+1-0"["56"(6,/6,O6".*".*1>01*O*0,*"6--;6-*4+",+556"5+77+"1;556"/0,1+846O*0,+".+556",6-;86H"/A+"
,+"5*(*-6"1*7,*E*/6-*46(+,-+"56"(+116"*,">86-*/6"+H"*,";5-*(6"6,65*1*H"5Q*(>6--0%"\+11;,6"6--+,O*0,+"4*+,+"
>8+1-6-6"6*"8*1/A*"/5*(6-*/*"1>+/*E*/*",+55+"8+56-*4+"1-86-+7*+".*"7+1-*0,+H"10>86--;--0">+8"75*"+/01*1-+(*"+"5+"
>0>056O*0,*">68-*/0568(+,-+"+1>01-*"G6."+1%",+55+"50/65*-N"*,1;568*JH"/A+"7*N"8*/A*+.0,0"1-86-+7*+".*""
7+1-*0,+"6.6--6-+"+"6"5;,70"-+8(*,+H"/0(+"56">80-+O*0,+">8+4+,-*46".+*"1*-*"101-*-;-*4*%"
P5">8*,/*>*0".*">8+1+8468+"+"86EE08O68+"56")*0.*4+81*-N"8*1>+--0"6*"8*1/A*"/5*(6-*/*"+"75*"1-8;(+,-*"/088*1>0,_
.+,-*H"/0(+"5+"105;O*0,*")616-+"1;556",6-;86H",0,"10,0"6,/086"1;EE*/*+,-+(+,-+"86.*/6-*"/0(+">8*,/*>*"
E0,.6(+,-65*".*">*6,*E*/6O*0,+",+*"1+--08*">05*-*/*%"'"R;+1-0">80>01*-0H"(6,/6"6,/A+";,6"/088*1>0,.+,-+"
&&K"
"
1-86-+7*6"750)65+"*,-+81+--08*65+">+8"7686,-*8+";,6"/0,1*.+86O*0,+"1-8;--;865+".*"R;+1-6"68+6"-+(6-*/6"
E0,.6(+,-65+">+8"5Q6.6--6(+,-0"6*"/6()*6(+,-*"/5*(6-*/*"+">+8"+4*-68+"/0,E5*--*".*"0)*+--*4*%".+8*46,-*H"6."
+1+(>*0H".6";,6"1+8*+".*"+1+,O*0,*"0".6556"(6,/6,O6".*";,"0))5*70">+8"5+"/0((*11*0,*"*,-+8.*1/*>5*,68*".*"
+1>8*(+8+";,">68+8+"1;75*"*,-+84+,-*",+75*"+/01*1-+(*"1+,1*)*5*H"/A+"140570,0"E;,O*0,*"*(>08-6,-*"*,"4*1-6"
.+*"8*1/A*"/5*(6-*/*%"
"
9"!"5
$78'-.3*:86++
Distribuzione settoriale delle competenze
7'8>-!>&+83&+3"+e%"68-%"B">;,-0"!&"F-%"';-0,0(*6D"3=&+:';%)&3<!2'&,1%,"+"C08>0"E08+1-65+H">6-8*(0,*0"
O00-+/,*/0"+."*--*/0H"*1-*-;-*"E*-0>6-0507*/*H"/0,108O*"67868*H"+"1-6O*0,*"67868*+"1>+8*(+,-65*%"
"
Tabella 6: Sintesi dei rischi principali, dell’idoneità degli strumenti politici per la gestione dei rischi climatici,
dell’orizzonte temporale da considerare e delle responsabilità (P=competenza esclusiva della Provincia, S=compe-
tenza esclusiva dello Stato, C=concorrente) per il settore Agricoltura
"
Rischi chiave settoriali (abbreviatura)
Idoneità
Orizzonte
temporale
Responsabilità
Perdita dei raccolti di foraggio nelle aree prative
Bassa
Breve termine
P
Stress da calore negli allevamenti e cali di resa nel settore
lattiero-caseario
Bassa
Medio termine
P
Riduzione dei rendimenti o diminuzione della qualità delle
colture permanenti
Bassa
Breve termine
P
Aumento della presenza di patogeni consolidati e
diffusione di organismi nocivi invasivi
Alta
Breve termine
P
Diminuzione dei raccolti e riduzione della qualità e
stabilità delle colture nei seminativi e negli ortaggi
Bassa
Breve termine
P
Aumento dei costi di produzione a causa delle misure di
protezione
Media
Breve termine
P
"
\+5"1+--08+".+55Q678*/05-;86"56"/6>6/*-N".*"6.6--6(+,-0".+75*"1-8;(+,-*">05*-*/*"[")6116%"b6"(677*08">68-+"
.+55+"(*1;8+"["/01-*-;*-6".6"1;11*.*".*"468*0"-*>0H"/0(+"R;+55*"405-*"6."6;(+,-68+"56">80.;--*4*-N"0"56"/0(_
>+-*-*4*-N".+55Q678*/05-;86H"(6"/A+"1*"5*(*-6,0">8*,/*>65(+,-+"6"*,4+1-*(+,-*"1-8;--;865*H"1+,O6"/0,.*O*0,*"
5+76-+"65"/5*(6H"+"86>>8+1+,-6,0"*,"786,">68-+"*,-+84+,-*";,6"-6,-;(H"6."+1%"6"1+7;*-0".*"E+,0(+,*"6-(0_
1E+8*/*H"/A+",0,"10,0"/0(>6-*)*5*"/0,"*5"/6()*6(+,-0".+55+"/0,.*O*0,*"/5*(6-*/A+"+"R;*,.*"/0,"56",+/+11*-N"
.*";,"/6()*6(+,-0"1-8;--;865+%"',/A+"1+"+1*1-0,0"0>O*0,*".*"*,-+84+,-0"6")8+4+"-+8(*,+H">8*,/*>65(+,-+"
8+6--*4+H"56"8+1*5*+,O6",0,"["6,/086"1-6-6"6,/086-6",+75*"1-8;(+,-*".*"E*,6,O*6(+,-0"/0(+"/8*-+8*0"E0,.6_
(+,-65+"+">806--*40%"W1*1-0,0"6,/A+"(*1;8+"E*-016,*-68*+">+8"*,-+84+,-*"6")8+4+"-+8(*,+">+8"*5"/0,-80550"
.+*">68611*-*H"(6"6,/A+"*,"R;+1-0"/610"1+,O6";,6">*6,*E*/6O*0,+"750)65+"+"5;,7*(*86,-+"6"5;,70"-+8(*,+%"
\+*"1+--08*".+*">61/05*H".+55+"/05-;8+">+8(6,+,-*H".+*"1+(*,6-*4*"+".+75*"08-677*H"5+"(*1;8+">+8">8+4+,*8+"5+"
>+8.*-+".*"8+16"1*"5*(*-6,0">8*,/*>65(+,-+"6556"E+8-*5*OO6O*0,+"+"655Q*88*76O*0,+%"',/A+"1+"R;+1-0"168N".*">+8"
1c";,"61>+--0"/+,-865+",+556"50--6"/0,-80"*"E;-;8*"8*1/A*"/5*(6-*/*"*,"678*/05-;86H"75*"61>+--*"/5*(6-*/*H""
8*1>+--0"6*"/8*-+8*"+/0507*/*H"10,0"/68+,-*",+556"8+56-*46">*6,*E*/6O*0,+"+",+75*"1-8;(+,-*"1-86-+7*/*%""
S6,/6,0"6."+1+(>*0";,Q*,-+786O*0,+".+75*"61>+--*"/5*(6-*/*",+5"/65/050".+5"E6))*107,0H";,"+16(+"/0(_
>5+-0".+*">0-+,O*65*"/0,E5*--*".Q;10"1;556"8*10816"+."+1*1-+";,6".*/0-0(*6"-86"5Q6;(+,-0".+556".0(6,.6".*"
*88*76O*0,+"+"56".*(*,;O*0,+".+556".*1>0,*)*5*-N".*"6/R;6%"F+))+,+"5Q*88*76O*0,+"86>>8+1+,-*".*">+8"1c"
;,Q0>O*0,+".*"6.6--6(+,-0"G65(+,0"-+(>086,+0JH"*5"E6--0".*"/0,/+,-8681*"1;".*"+116"/0(>08-6"*5"8*1/A*0"
.*"-861/;868+"5+"(*1;8+"1-8;--;865*">+8"8*.;88+"56"4;5,+86)*5*-NH"/0(+"5Q6.6--6(+,-0"6"/05-;8+"+">86-*/A+"
678*/05+"8+1*5*+,-*H"6,/A+"1+"R;+1-+">0110,0"+11+8+"6--;6-+",+5")8+4+"-+8(*,+"+",0,"8*/A*+.0,0"-+(>*"
&&B"
"
5;,7A*%"L*"/0,1+7;+,O6H"56"8+1*5*+,O6",+/+11*-6".*";,6"(677*08+"*,-+786O*0,+",+55+"+1*7+,O+".+556"8*/+8/6"
+H"1;55Q+1+(>*0".+5"C+,-80".*"8*/+8/6".*"b6*();87H"/A+"7*N"14057+"6--*4*-N"*(>08-6,-*"+."+16;1-*4+",+55Q6(_
)*-0".+5"/0,-80550"+".+5"(0,*-08677*0".+*">68611*-*H".+4+"+11+8+"(677*08(+,-+"*1-*-;O*0,65*OO6-6%"
@+8"R;6,-0"/0,/+8,+"56"165;-+".+75*"6,*(65*H"+1*1-+";,Q6(>*6"76((6".*".*1>01*O*0,*"1;556">8+4+,O*0,+"+"*5"
/0,-80550".+55+"(656--*+"6,*(65*H"1;5")+,+11+8+".+75*"6,*(65*"+"1;556">80-+O*0,+">611*46"/0,-80"*".*161-8*"
,6-;865*"(+.*6,-+"/0,-8*);-*"611*/;86-*4*%"C0(+".+1/8*--0",+556"1+O*0,+"1;556"165;-+H"(6,/6"R;61*".+5"-;--0"
56"/0,1*.+86O*0,+".+5"E6--08+"/6508+"+".+*"8+56-*4*"+EE+--*"1;5")+,+11+8+".+75*"6,*(65*"+"1;556">80.;O*0,+".*"
56--+H"+"R;*,.*".+5",+/+1168*0"6.6--6(+,-0".+55+"1-8;--;8+"0".+55+">86-*/A+"678*/05+%"
"
9"!"!
X(/4.)(+B.8(/*63(+
Distribuzione settoriale delle competenze
7'8>-!>&+83&+3"+e"68-%"B">;,-0"!&"F-%"';-0,0(*6D!2'&,1%,"+"C08>0"E08+1-65+H">6-8*(0,*0"O00-+/,*/0"+."
*--*/0H"*1-*-;-*"E*-0>6-0507*/*H"/0,108O*"67868*H"+"1-6O*0,*"67868*+"1>+8*(+,-65*"
"
Tabella 7: Sintesi dei rischi principali, dell’idoneità degli strumenti politici per la gestione dei rischi climatici,
dell’orizzonte temporale da considerare e delle responsabilità (P=competenza esclusiva della Provincia, S=compe-
tenza esclusiva dello Stato, C=concorrente) per il settore della gestione forestale
"
Rischi chiave settoriali (abbreviatura)
Ido-
neità
Orizzonte
temporale
Responsabi-
lità
Danni alle foreste a causa di fenomeni meteorologici estremi
più frequenti e più intensi e dell’aumento delle temperature
Media
Lungo termine
P
Scomparsa o di spostamento spaziale delle specie arboree
nella zona altitudinale, incertezza sull’uso di specie arboree
non autoctone
Bassa
Lungo termine
P
Danneggiamento e scomparsa di vaste aree forestali a causa
di parassiti/malattie/declino della vitalità
Media
Lungo termine
P
Elevate emissioni di carbonio in caso di incendi boschivi o di
scomparsa di vaste aree di foresta/graduale riduzione dello
stoccaggio di carbonio nella foresta
Alta
Medio termine
P
Compromissione della funzione di ritenzione idrica e della
qualità dell’acqua
Media
Lungo termine
P
Riduzione/perdita della funzione protettiva della foresta
Alta
Lungo termine
P
"
\+5"1+--08+"E08+1-65+"+1*1-0,0".*4+81*"1-8;(+,-*"/A+"-;-+56,0"*5">6-8*(0,*0"E08+1-65+H"8+7056,0"75*"*,-+8_
4+,-*"0"(*86,0"6">80-+77+8+"*5"1;050".+55+"E08+1-+H"05-8+"6"R;+55*"/A+"0EE80,0"0>O*0,*".*"*,-+84+,-0"6")8+4+"
-+8(*,+H"/0(+"6--864+810"56"-;-+56"0"5+"(*1;8+".*"50--6"/0,-80"5+"*,E+1-6O*0,*">68611*-68*+%"'5"8*1/A*0".*""
*,/+,.*")01/A*4*"4*+,+">8+1-6-6"1;EE*/*+,-+"6--+,O*0,+"786O*+"655Q6--;6O*0,+".*"(*1;8+".*",6-;86">8*,/*>65_
(+,-+"*,E861-8;--;865+">+8"56"50--6"675*"*,/+,.*")01/A*4*H"1+))+,+"(6,/A*,0"6,/086"1-8;(+,-*".*">*6,*E*/6_
O*0,+".+.*/6-*"+"/0(>5+-*%"P"56408*"6"8+7*6"0EE80,0"655+"6;-08*-N"6,/A+"*(>08-6,-*"0>>08-;,*-N".*"*,-+8_
4+,-0".*8+--0H"6."+1%",+*"1+--08*".+5"(6,-+,*(+,-0"+".+5"8*>8*1-*,0".+55+"E;,O*0,*">80-+--*4+H".+5"8*()0_
1/A*(+,-0"+".+556">80-+O*0,+".+556"8*7+,+86O*0,+H".+5"8*>8*1-*,0".+55+"68++"E08+1-65*".0>0".*161-8*",6-;865*"
0"*,/+,.*"+".+556">8+4+,O*0,+"+"7+1-*0,+".+55+"*,E+1-6O*0,*">68611*-68*+%"3,6"1+8*+".*"*,/+,-*4*"*,-+786"5+"
.*1>01*O*0,*"10>86"/*-6-+H"*,">68-*/0568+">+8"56"(6,;-+,O*0,+"G>80-+--*46J".+55+"E08+1-+H"*5"/0,-80550".+*""
>68611*-*H"56">8+4+,O*0,+".+*".6,,*"+"*5"8*>8*1-*,0".0>0"*".6,,*"/6;16-*".65"/5*(6H"-86"5Q65-80H"6,/A+"1+"*5">80_
)5+(6".+5"786,",;(+80".*">80>8*+-68*".*"E08+1-+"/A+",;-80,0"1>+86,O+"1*"(6,*E+1-6"*,"R;+1-0"/610",+5"
5080"+EE+--0%"S+,-8+"R;+1-+"(*1;8+"6EE80,-6,0"7*N"5+"/0,1+7;+,O+"/5*(6-*/A+">+8"5+"/0(;,*-N"E08+1-65*"+"
R;*,.*"G10>86--;--0">+8"R;6,-0"8*7;68.6"*".*161-8*",6-;865*J"86>>8+1+,-6,0">8*,/*>65(+,-+"0>O*0,*".*"
&&2"
"
*,-+84+,-0"8+6--*4+H"5+"(*1;8+">806--*4+H"/0(+"5Q*()01/A*(+,-0"+"5Q*(>*6,-0".*"E08+1-+H"56">8+4+,O*0,+"
.+*".6,,*"+"75*"*,4+1-*(+,-*",+556"8+1*5*+,O6".+55+"E08+1-+H",0,"10,0".+--675*6-+">*`"/A*686(+,-+"+",0,"
10,0"1>+/*E*/6(+,-+"08*+,-6-+"65"/6()*6(+,-0".+55+"/0,.*O*0,*"/5*(6-*/A+%"C01dH"6."+1+(>*0H"56"8*E08+_
1-6O*0,+"/0,"1>+/*+"68)08++"6;-0/-0,+"6.6--+"65"5;070",0,"-*+,+"/0,-0".+5"/6()*6(+,-0".+55+"/0,.*_
O*0,*"/5*(6-*/A+"6"(+.*0"+"5;,70"-+8(*,+H"/0,"*(>5*/6O*0,*">+8"56")*0.*4+81*-NH"56"/0(>01*O*0,+".+55+"1>+_
/*+"68)08++H"*"(+-0.*".*"8*7+,+86O*0,+"+"56"7+1-*0,+".+556"E6;,6"1+546-*/6%"',/A+"56"8*/+8/6H"/01d"/0(+"56"
E08(6O*0,+"+"5Q677*08,6(+,-0".+55+"7;68.*+"E08+1-65*"*,"(+8*-0"655+"GE;-;8+J"/0(;,*-N"E08+1-65*"8+1*5*+,-*H"
,0,"10,0"6,/086"1;EE*/*+,-+(+,-+"*1-*-;O*0,65*OO6-+%"
b6"1-86-+7*6"E08+1-65+".+556"@804*,/*6"6EE80,-6"*,"56876"(*1;86"*">8*,/*>65*"8*1/A*"1+--08*65*H"(6".6"/*h"
+(+87+"56".*1/8+>6,O6"-86"56"1-86-+7*6"+"5Q6,/08677*0"5+7*156-*40".+*">8*,/*>*"*,"+116"+,;,/*6-*%"bQ'7+,.6"
E08+1-65+"!9#9"(*86"6"/8+68+";,6"/0(;,*-N"E08+1-65+"8+1*5*+,-+"/A+"140576">*+,6(+,-+"5+"468*+"E;,O*0,*H"
10>86--;--0"R;+556".*">80-+O*0,+H".+E*,+,.0"*"8+56-*4*"0)*+--*4*"+"(*1;8+%"b+"(*1;8+"5+7*156-*4+"/088*1>0,_
.+,-*H"-;--64*6H",0,"10,0"1>+/*E*/6(+,-+"08*+,-6-+"6"R;+1-0"1/0>0"+"56"1-86-+7*6"+"*"1;0*"/0,-+,;-*"8+56-*4*"
655+"/0(;,*-N"E08+1-65*"8+1*5*+,-*",0,"10,0"R;*,.*"1;EE*/*+,-+(+,-+"-86.0--+"*,",08(+"4*,/056,-*H",+(_
(+,0",+75*"1-8;(+,-*".*">*6,*E*/6O*0,+"6"5;,70"-+8(*,+"/0(+"*5">*6,0".*"-86--6(+,-0"0"56"1/A+.6""
E08+1-65+%"
"
9"!"9
D63:*(++
Distribuzione settoriale delle competenze
7'8>-!1,:'$(3&+3^:'$:'&&,$%,".+556"@804*,/*6"6;-0,0(6"+e"68-%"2">;,-0"&9"F-%"';-0,0(*6D"*7*+,+"+"16_
,*-N"
Tabella 8: Sintesi dei rischi principali, dell’idoneità degli strumenti politici per la gestione dei rischi climatici,
dell’orizzonte temporale da considerare e delle responsabilità (P=competenza esclusiva della Provincia, S=compe-
tenza esclusiva dello Stato, C=concorrente) per il settore Salute
"
Rischi chiave settoriali (abbreviatura)
Idoneità
Orizzonte
temporale
Responsabilità
Stress da calore e da freddo e di inquinamento atmosferico
Bassa
Medio termine
C
Malattie infettive legate al clima
Media
Breve termine
C
Aumento dei disastri naturali e delle emergenze all’aperto
Media
Medio termine
C
Malattie trasmesse dall’acqua e dagli alimenti
Bassa
Medio termine
C
"
\+5"1+--08+"16,*-68*0H"+1*1-0,0"7*N".*4+81+",08(6-*4+"+"1-86-+7*+"/A+"8*7;68.6,0"56">8+4+,O*0,+".+*"8*1/A*"
>+8"56"165;-+%"P,">68-*/0568+H"*5"@*6,0".*">8+4+,O*0,+",6O*0,65+"6EE80,-6";,6"1+8*+".*"8*1/A*"/5*(6-*/*"+">+8_
1+7;+"*,"56876"(*1;86"5Q6>>80//*0"f0,+_A+65-Ag"+"*5"fA+65-A">05*/Y"(6*,1-8+6(*,7gH"011*6"5Q*,-+786O*0,+"
.+75*"61>+--*"16,*-68*"*,"-;--+"5+"68++">05*-*/A+H"1+))+,+"(6,/A*";,6"/088*1>0,.+,-+")61+"*1-*-;O*0,65+"+"
5+765+"+"R;*,.*";,Q+EE*/6/*6"6O*0,+".*8+--6%"P,05-8+H"+1*1-0,0";5-+8*08*".*1>01*O*0,*">+8"56">8+4+,O*0,+"+"56"
1084+75*6,O6".+55+"(656--*+"-861(+11+".6"4+--08*"+"(*1;8+"*,-+,1*4+".*"(0,*-08677*0"+"1+7,656O*0,+"1*6"
,+55Q6()*-0".+556"/;86".+556"165;-+";(6,6"/A+"*,"8+56O*0,+"6556"165;-+"6,*(65+%"',/A+"1+"+1*1-0,0"0>O*0,*"
.*"*,-+84+,-0"6")8+4+"-+8(*,+H"56"/0,1*.+86O*0,+"1*1-+(6-*/6".+*"8*1/A*"/5*(6-*/*"*,"R;+1-0"6()*-0",0,"
4*+,+"6--;6-6".*"/0,1+7;+,O6H"8+,.+,.0">*`".*EE*/*5+";,"6.6--6(+,-0">806--*40%"b6"1*-;6O*0,+"["1*(*5+">+8"
R;6,-0"8*7;68.6"*5"8*1/A*0".*";,"6;(+,-0".+*".*161-8*",6-;865*"+".+75*"+4+,-*".*"(6116H"56..04+"5+"(*1;8+"
+1*1-+,-*">+8"*"1*1-+(*".*"655+8-6"0"5+"/6-+,+".*"8*1>01-6"655+"+(+87+,O+"/0,1+,-6,0".*"8+67*8+"*,"(0.0"
6.+7;6-0H"(6,/6">+8h"6,/086";,6"405-6";,6">801>+--*46"6"5;,70"-+8(*,+">+8">8+>68681*"*,"(0.0">806-_
-*40"6"+4+,-*">*`"E8+R;+,-*"+">*`"*,-+,1*"+">+8"6.6--68+"1-8;--;8+"+">80/+11*"*,";,6"E61+"*,*O*65+%"'."077*H"50"
1-8+11".6"/6508+"+".6"E8+..0"[">86-*/6(+,-+"611+,-+".655+",08(6-*4+".*"1+--08+"+"1*"8*E5+--+"1050"(687*,65_
(+,-+",+75*"1-8;(+,-*".*">*6,*E*/6O*0,+"1-86-+7*/6%"F+))+,+"1*6,0"1-6-+">80>01-+"(*1;8+"1+5+--*4+">+8"
&!9"
"
8*.;88+"50"1-8+11".6"/6508+",+*"78;>>*".*">+810,+"4;5,+86)*5*H",0,"A6"6,/086"64;-0"5;070"56"E61+".*"*1-*-;_
O*0,65*OO6O*0,+"/0(>5+-6".+5"8*1/A*0".*"0,.6-+".*"/6508+"+"E8+..0%"L*"/0,1+7;+,O6H"6,/A+"*",+11*"5+765*"+"
*1-*-;O*0,65*"/0,"65-8*"1+--08*H"/0(+"56">*6,*E*/6O*0,+"-+88*-08*65+H"/A+"168+))+80"E0,.6(+,-65*">+8"8*.;88+"
*5"8*1/A*0".*"/6508+H"10,0".+)05*%"\+((+,0"75*"+EE+--*".+55+"468*6O*0,*".*"-+(>+86-;86"1;556"R;65*-N".+55Q"
6/R;6"0"1;5"8*1/A*0".*"(656--*+".*"08*7*,+"*.8*/6"+"65*(+,-68+"4+,70,0">8+1*"6.+7;6-6(+,-+"*,"/0,1*.+86_
O*0,+",+55+",08(6-*4+"16,*-68*+"0",+556">*6,*E*/6O*0,+H"(6,;-+,O*0,+"+",+5"(0,*-08677*0".+55+"*,E861-8;-_
-;8+">+8-*,+,-*%"<0,.6(+,-65*">+8"5Q*,-+786O*0,+".+*"8*1/A*"/5*(6-*/*",+55+"R;+1-*0,*"16,*-68*+"+"R;*,.*">+8"
*5"86EE08O6(+,-0".+5",+110"/5*(6_165;-+"G+".*1;7;675*6,O6J"10,0"56".+5*)+86".+556"V*;,-6">804*,/*65+",%"
B?!".+55Q0--0)8+"!9!#"1;55Q*1-*-;O*0,+".+5"1*1-+(6".*">8+4+,O*0,+".+*"8*1/A*"6()*+,-65*"+"/5*(6-*/*">+8"56"
165;-+"6"5*4+550">804*,/*65+"GF@VbJ"+"5Q*1-*-;O*0,+".*";,"/088*1>0,.+,-+"78;>>0".*8+--*40"*,-+81+--08*65+%"b6"
(*1;86"+"56"4+50/*-N".*"6--;6O*0,+".*"R;+1-*"1-8;(+,-*"10,0"+11+,O*65*">+8"5Q+EE+--*46"*,-+786O*0,+".+*"8*1/A*"
/5*(6-*/*",+5"1+--08+"16,*-68*0"+",0,"1050H"*,"5*,+6"/0,"5Q6>>80//*0"750)65+"fk,+"=+65-Ag%"
"
9"!"R
U:8'/%.++
Distribuzione settoriale delle competenze
7'8>-!>&+83&+3"+e%"68-%"B">;,-0"!9".+550"F-%"';-0,0(*6D"%)&+18'!+"*,.;1-8*6"65)+87A*+86"/0(>8+1+"5+"
7;*.+H"*">08-6-08*"65>*,*H"*"(6+1-8*"+"5+"1/;05+".*"1/*"
"
Tabella 9: Sintesi dei rischi principali, dell’idoneità degli strumenti politici per la gestione dei rischi climatici,
dell’orizzonte temporale da considerare e delle responsabilità (P=competenza esclusiva della Provincia, S=compe-
tenza esclusiva dello Stato, C=concorrente) per il settore Turismo
"
Rischi chiave settoriali (abbreviatura)
Ido-
neità
Orizzonte
temporale
Responsabi-
lità
Diminuzione dell'attrattività del turismo invernale
Bassa
Lungo termine
P
Diminuzione della sicurezza umana in relazione al turismo
estivo
Media
Medio termine
P
Diminuzione della sicurezza umana in relazione al turismo
invernale
Media
Medio termine
P
Danni all'infrastruttura turistica
Media
Lungo termine
P + C
Diminuzione dell'atteggiamento nei confronti del turismo
della popolazione locale
Bassa
Medio termine
P
Sovraccarico del sistema sanitario pubblico e delle
infrastrutture di mobilità nelle destinazioni turistiche
Bassa
Lungo termine
C
"
C0,"*5"/0,/+--0".*"14*5;>>0"-;8*1-*/0">804*,/*65+"!9#9r"GbUW{JH",+5"!9!&"["1-6-6"6.0--6-6";,6"1-86-+7*6"/A+"
(*86"6"/8+68+";,"1+--08+"-;8*1-*/0"8+1*5*+,-+"+"1*"8*4057+"1*6"6"5*4+550".+55+"*,E861-8;--;8+"/A+"6"R;+550".+55+"
.+1-*,6O*0,*%"b6"1-86-+7*6"6EE80,-6"6,/A+"61>+--*"R;65*"*5"(6,-+,*(+,-0".+55Q6>>80//*0"65"-;8*1(0"+"5+"
R;+1-*0,*".*"1*/;8+OO6",+5"-;8*1(0"+1-*40"+"E;,7+".6")61+">+8"14*5;>>68+"*"/0,/+--*".*"14*5;>>0"-;8*1-*/0"6"
5*4+550"/0(;,65+H"6/R;*1+,.0"*,"-65"(0.0";,6"8*5+46,O6">86-*/6".*8+--6H">;8",0,"+11+,.0"4*,/056,-+"*,"
65/;,"65-80"(0.0%"b6"(*1;86"*,"/;*"*"8*1/A*"/A*64+".+5"1+--08+"-;8*1-*/0"4+,70,0"6EE80,-6-*".*>+,.+"R;*,.*"
.655Q6()*O*0,+"+".655Q+EE*/6/*6".*"R;+1-*"/0,/+--*"14*5;>>6-*"6"5*4+550"/0(;,65+H"6,/A+"6"E80,-+".+556""
(6,/6,O6".*"*,-+786O*0,+".+*"8*1/A*"/5*(6-*/*",+55+",08(6-*4+">804*,/*65*"G6">68-+"5+",08(6-*4+"1+--08*65*"
+1*1-+,-*H"/0(+"56">*6,*E*/6O*0,+".+55+"O0,+".*">+8*/050"0"56">80-+O*0,+"/*4*5+J%"Z;+1-0"6,/08677*0"(6,/6"
6,/A+",+75*"1-8;(+,-*"6"5*4+550"6O*+,.65+"+".*".+1-*,6O*0,+H"6">68-+"5+"6--*4*-N"E6/05-6-*4+"/0(+"5+"/+8-*E*_
/6O*0,*%"b+",08(+"1;5"E*,6,O*6(+,-0H"6."+1+(>*0H"/0,-*,;6,0"6">;,-68+"1;556"-86.*O*0,65+">80(0O*0,+"
.+5"-;8*1(0"1+,O6"6EE80,-68+H"6."+1+(>*0H"*5"E;-;80"1>01-6(+,-0".+*"E5;11*"-;8*1-*/*"0"5+"+1*7+,O+"
&!&"
"
1>+/*E*/A+".*"14*5;>>0H"/0(+"56".*4+81*E*/6O*0,+".+55+"1-8;--;8+"+".+55+"0EE+8-+"*,"4*1-6".+*"/6()*6(+,-*"
/5*(6-*/*H"10>86--;--0",+55+"8+7*0,*"6"-;8*1(0"*,4+8,65+%"P5"8;050".+55+"0876,*OO6O*0,*"-;8*1-*/A+"[".+E*,*-0"
*,"(0.0"1*(*568+H"1+,O6"E0/65*OO681*H"6."+1%"6--864+810"*"5080">80786((*"1-86-+7*/*H"1;55Q6;(+,-0".+556"8+1*_
5*+,O6"6*"E;-;8*"8*1/A*"/5*(6-*/*"6"5;,70"-+8(*,+H"/016"/A+"168+))+",+/+1168*6"1*,".6"077*H"4*1-0"5Q65-0"5*4+550"
.*">+81*1-+,O6%"P5"(68l+-*,7"-;8*1-*/0H"*,05-8+H",0,"-*+,+"6,/086"/0,-0".+75*"+EE+--*".+*"/6()*6(+,-*"/5*(6_
-*/*"1;550"14*5;>>0".+*"E5;11*"-;8*1-*/*H"*5"/A+">0-8+))+"/0,1+,-*8+";,"*,-+84+,-0">*`"(*86-0">+8".*1-8*/68+"*"
E5;11*"*,";,6"E61+"*,*O*65+H"/0,";,"*(>6--0"/0,1*.+8+405+"1;";,6"1+8*+".*"8*1/A*"/5*(6-*/*"6110/*6-*"6556">011*_
)*5+"/0,/+,-86O*0,+"1>6O*65+"+"-+(>0865+".+5"-;8*1(0%"'."+1+(>*0H"*5".*(+,1*0,6(+,-0"*,6.+7;6-0".+55+"
*,E861-8;--;8+">+8"56"(0)*5*-N"0".+55+"1-8;--;8+"16,*-68*+"["6778646-0".6";5-+8*08*"8*1/A*">+8"56"1*/;8+OO6"+"
.655Q6;(+,-0".+75*"*,/*.+,-*".*"(6116%"',/A+"*5">011*)*5+".+/5*,0".+556"R;65*-N".+556"4*-6"+"R;*,.*".+55Q"
6--+77*6(+,-0".+556">0>056O*0,+"50/65+",+*"/0,E80,-*".+5"-;8*1(0"6"1+7;*-0".*"R;+1-*"+EE+--*".*"/0,/+,-86_
O*0,+H"86>>8+1+,-6";,"8*1/A*0"1*1-+(*/0">+8"*5"1+--08+"-;8*1-*/0"/A+"8*/A*+.+";,6"/0,1*.+86O*0,+"/0(>5+-6"
,+556">*6,*E*/6O*0,+"6"5;,70"-+8(*,+%"T+1-6".6"4+.+8+"*,"/A+"(*1;86"*"/0,/+--*".*"14*5;>>0"-;8*1-*/0"50/65+"
>0116,0"+11+8+"50"1-8;(+,-0"6.6--0"6550"1/0>0%"
!
9"!"V
O)/(,'6%()*.F+')B86/*8:L:8(+(+=6*8'%.)'.+-:3*:863(++
Distribuzione settoriale delle competenze
7'8>-!>&+83&+3"+e"'8-%"B">;,-0":"F-%"';-0,0(*6D")&93$+1%+:3!,!>+3$+!&,=';3%'&+-""
7'8>-!>&+83&+3"+e"'8-%"B">;,-0"&9"F-%"';-0,0(*6D",(+;+*+3!:'8)$P),!1'DD,$*+'$3%3""
7'8>-!>&+83&+3"+e"'8-%"B">;,-0"!B"F-%"';-0,0(*6D",(+;+*+3!1:';31%+:3""
7'8>-!>&+83&+3"+e"68-%"B">;,-0"&2"F-%"';-0,0(*6D"311)$*+'$,!(+&,%%3!(+!1,&D+*+!>)99;+:+!,!;'&'!=,1%+'$,"
6"(+OO0".*"6O*+,.+"1>+/*65*""
7'8>-!>&+83&+3"+e"'8-%"B">;,-0"&K"F-%"';-0,0(*6D"D+39+;+%B<!3:P),('%%+!,!;3D'&+!>)99;+:+!(+!+$%,&,11,!
>&'D+$:+3;,""
7'8>-!>&+83&+3"+e"68-%"B">;,-0"&B"F-%"';-0,0(*6D":'8)$+:3*+'$+!,!%&31>'&%+!(+!+$%,&,11,!>&'D+$:+3;,H"
/0(>8+1*"56"8+7056(+,-6O*0,+"-+/,*/6"+"5Q+1+8/*O*0".+75*"*(>*6,-*".*"E;,*4*6""""
7'8>-!>&+83&+3"+e"68-%"B">;,-0"&&"F-%"';-0,0(*6D">'&%+!;3:)3;+""
7'8>-":'$:'&&,$%,"+e"68-%"&&K"/%"#"C01-%D"='D,&$'!(,;!%,&&+%'&+'<!>'&%+!,!3,&'>'&%+!:+D+;+<!=&3$(+!&,%+!(+!
%&31>'&%'!,!(+!$3D+=3*+'$,"
7'8>-!>&+83&+3"+e"68-%B">;,-0"#"F-%"';-0,0(*6D"%)%,;3!,!:'$1,&D3*+'$,!(,;!>3%&+8'$+'!1%'&+:'<!3&%+1%+:'!
,!>'>';3&,"
7'8>-!>&+83&+3"+e"68-%B">;,-0"$"F-%"';-0,0(*6D")1+!,!:'1%)8+!;':3;+!,(!+1%+%)*+'$+!:);%)&3;+!G)*)5*0-+/A+H"
6//6.+(*+H"*1-*-;-*H"(;1+*J"3D,$%+!:3&3%%,&,!>&'D+$:+3;,m"83$+2,1%3*+'$+!,(!3%%+D+%B"68-*1-*/A+H"/;5-;865*"
+."+.;/6-*4+";':3;+<"+H"6,/A+"/0,"*"(+OO*"86.*0-+5+4*1*4*H"+1/5;16"56"E6/05-N".*"*(>*6,-68+"1-6O*0,*"86.*0-+_
5+4*1*4+%"
"
Tabella 10: Sintesi dei rischi principali, dell’idoneità degli strumenti politici per la gestione dei rischi climatici,
dell’orizzonte temporale da considerare e delle responsabilità (P=competenza esclusiva della Provincia, S=compe-
tenza esclusiva dello Stato, C=concorrente) per il settore Insediamento, infrastrutture e patrimonio culturale (in
grigio rischi transettoriali)
"
Rischi chiave settoriali (abbreviatura)
Idoneità
Orizzonte
temporale
Responsabilità
Danneggiamento e diminuzione della qualità degli edifici
residenziali, degli edifici produttivi, delle infrastrutture di
trasporto e degli spazi pubblici
Media
Lungo termine
P + C
Danni e diminuzione della qualità delle infrastrutture e dei
servizi sanitari
Media
Lungo termine
P + C
&!!"
"
Danni e riduzione della qualità delle infrastrutture e dei
servizi comunitari
Media
Lungo termine
P + C
Danni, perdita e diminuzione della qualità del patrimonio
culturale
Media
Medio termine
P
Perdita di attrattività territoriale e turistica
Bassa
Medio termine
P
Danni agli ecosistemi, agli insediamenti e alle infrastrutture a
causa delle inondazioni
Media
Lungo termine
P + C
Danni all'infrastruttura turistica
Media
Lungo termine
P + C
Stress da calore e da freddo e di inquinamento atmosferico
Media
Medio termine
C
!
k5-8+"6*"7*N"/*-6-*"8*1/A*">+8"75*"*,1+.*6(+,-*"+"5+"*,E861-8;--;8+H"*5"1+--08+".+556">*6,*E*/6O*0,+"-+88*-08*65+"["
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4+,O*0,+".+5"8*1/A*0"6.6--6-6"655+"/0,.*O*0,*"50/65*"+"(*86,0"R;*,.*"6">8+4+,*8+"0"8*.;88+"65"(*,*(0"*"
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>*6,*E*/6O*0,+".+75*"*,1+.*6(+,-*H"10>86--;--0"6"5*4+550"/0(;,65+H".*EE*/*5(+,-+"6EE80,-6"5+"+1*7+,O+"E;_
-;8+"0"5+"5080".*4+81+"E;,O*0,*"1;550"1E0,.0".+*"468*"8*1/A*"/5*(6-*/*H"/0(+"56">80-+O*0,+".65"/6508+"0".655+"
*,0,.6O*0,*%"b+"*,.67*,*"1;556".0(6,.6".*"1>6O*"4+8.*"+"6>+8-*"1*")616,0"1;550"1-6-;1"R;0H"1+,O6"-+,+8+"
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>+8"5Q6.6--6(+,-0%"F+))+,+"5+"5*,++"7;*.6">+8"5Q+56)086O*0,+".+5">80786((6".*"14*5;>>0"/0(;,65+"
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"
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/0,1+,-0,0"R;*,.*";,",0-+405+"(687*,+".*"(6,0486",+556">*6,*E*/6O*0,+".+75*"1>6O*"4+8.*%"'"5*4+550".*">80_
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>*6,*E*/6O*0,+".+550"14*5;>>0"4*"["6,/086";,"(687*,+".*"(6,0486"/0(;,65+"*,;-*5*OO6-0">+8"56">8+.*1>01*_
O*0,+"GE6/05-6-*46J".*"+5+(+,-*"8*5+46,-*">+8"5Q6.6--6(+,-0%"',/A+"56"R;+1-*0,+".+556".+,1*-N"*,1+.*6-*46"
,0,"["(05-0".*EE+8+,O*6-6%"S+,-8+".*4+81*"1-8;(+,-*".*">*6,*E*/6O*0,+"E6408*1/0,0"1-8;--;8+"*,1+.*6-*4+"
/0(>6--+H"(6,/6";,6"(677*08+"/0,1*.+86O*0,+".+55Q+R;*5*)8*0"-86"(*-*76O*0,+"+"6.6--6(+,-0H"65"E*,+".*"
7686,-*8+";,6"1-8;--;86"(0.+86-6(+,-+".+,16"/0,";,Q0EE+8-6".*"1>6O*"4+8.*"+"6>+8-*"08*+,-6-6"655+"E;-;8+"
/0,.*O*0,*"/5*(6-*/A+%"
"
9"!"W
Z)(87'6++
Distribuzione settoriale delle competenze
7'8>-!:'$:'&&,$%,!+e"68-%"&&K"/%"#"C01-%J">80.;O*0,+H"-861>08-0"+".*1-8*);O*0,+",6O*0,65+".+55Q+,+87*6"""
7'8>-!:'$:'&&,$%,"+e"68-%"2">;,-0"2"F-%"';-0,0(*6D"_%+;+**3*+'$,!(,;;,!3:P),!>)99;+:A,<!,1:;)1,!;,!
=&3$(+!(,&+D3*+'$+"6"1/0>0"*.80+5+--8*/0%"""
7'8>-!:'$:'&&,$%,"+e"68-%"&#"F-%"';-0,0(*6D"56"@804*,/*6"A6"*5">0-+8+".*".*1/*>5*,68+"/0,";,==,!>&'D+$M
:+3;,!;,!8'(3;+%B!,!;,!>&':,()&,!(+!311,=$3*+'$,!(,;;,!:'$:,11+'$+!>,&!=&3$(+!(,&+D3*+'$+!.Q6/R;6"6"
1/0>0"*.80+5+--8*/0H"*,/5;16"56".;86-6".+55+"/0,/+11*0,*H"*"/8*-+8*">+8"56".+-+8(*,6O*0,+".+*"/6,0,*".*"/0,_
/+11*0,+H"*">686(+-8*".*"14*5;>>0".+75*"*(>*6,-*",0,/Ac"5+"(0.65*-N".*"465;-6O*0,+".+75*"61>+--*">6+1677*_
1-*/*"+".*"*(>6--0"6()*+,-65+H".+-+8(*,6,.0"5+"/0,1+7;+,-*"(*1;8+".*"/0(>+,16O*0,+%"
"
Tabella 11: Sintesi dei rischi principali, dell’idoneità degli strumenti politici per la gestione dei rischi climatici,
dell’orizzonte temporale da considerare e delle responsabilità (P=competenza esclusiva della Provincia, S=compe-
tenza esclusiva dello Stato, C=concorrente) per il settore Energia
"
Rischi chiave settoriali (abbreviatura)
Ido-
neità
Orizzonte
temporale
Responsabilità
Maggiore domanda energetica e aumento del picco di
domanda
Media
Medio termine
C
Danni e minore affidabilità delle infrastrutture di trasporto e
stoccaggio dell’energia
Bassa
Lungo termine
C
Danni, carenze di energia e potenza e interruzioni della
sicurezza dell’approvvigionamento
Media
Lungo termine
C
"
'."077*H",+5"1+--08+"+,+87+-*/0"10,0"1050">0/A+"5+".*1>01*O*0,*"4*7+,-*"/A+"1*6,0".*8+--6(+,-+"8*5+46,-*"
>+8"5Q6.6--6(+,-0%"\+55Q6()*-0".+556">*6,*E*/6O*0,+".+55+"*,E861-8;--;8+"+,+87+-*/A+H"6."+1+(>*0H"(6,/6"
*,"786,">68-+"5Q61>+--0".+556"8+1*5*+,O6"+".+55Q*,E5;+,O6".+*"8*1/A*"/5*(6-*/*"1;556"1*/;8+OO6".+55Q6>>8044*7*0_
,6(+,-0"G6."+1%",+556">0,.+86O*0,+".+55+"5*,++"6+8++"0".+*"/64*"10--+886,+*J%"',/A+"1+"5Q+1>6,1*0,+".+556"
8+-+"G104868+7*0,65+J"[";,Q*(>08-6,-+"(*1;86">+8"8*.;88+"56"4;5,+86)*5*-N".*">+8"1cH"*,"65/;,+"68++"[""
+4*.+,-+"56"(6,/6,O6".*"/0(>0,+,-*".*,6(*/A+",+556">*6,*E*/6O*0,+"+",+*">80/+11*".+/*1*0,65*H"6."+1%"56"
(6,/6-6"/0,1*.+86O*0,+".+*"/01-*"1*1-+(*/*".04;-*"6*"8*1/A*"/5*(6-*/*",+5"/65/050".+*"/01-*%"b+"(*1;8+H""
10>86--;--0">+8"56"7+1-*0,+".+*"8*1/A*",6-;865*",+5"1+--08+".*"W,+87*6H"10,0"*,"786,">68-+"8+6--*4+%"',/A+"1+"
>+8"*"786,.*">807+--*"*,E861-8;--;865*H"/0(+"*"/64*"10--+886,+*H"4+,70,0"+EE+--;6-+"1>+/*E*/A+"6,65*1*".*""
8*1/A*0H"5Q*,-+786O*0,+".+*"8*1/A*"/5*(6-*/*"*,";,6">*6,*E*/6O*0,+"5;,7*(*86,-+",0,"[">*+,6(+,-+"*1-*-;O*0_
,65*OO6-6%"\+5"1+--08+".+55+"+,+87*+"8*,,046)*5*"/*"10,0"1-6-+"67+4056O*0,*H"*,">68-*/0568+">+8"5Q*,1-6556O*0,+"
.*"*(>*6,-*"E0-0405-6*/*"*,">8011*(*-N".+75*"+.*E*/*H"(6",08(+"-80>>0"8+1-8*--*4+",+5"1+--08+".+75*"65-8*""
*(>*6,-*"E0-0405-6*/*"0"+05*/*H"56"(6,/6,O6".*"0))5*7A*",+55Q*,-+786O*0,+".+55+"+,+87*+"8*,,046)*5*"+"5Q6--+,_
O*0,+">8*(68*6"675*"1-8;(+,-*".*"1044+,O*0,+"8+,.0,0".*EE*/*5+"/0,/8+-*OO68+"56",+/+11*-N".*";,6"
&!$"
"
.*4+81*E*/6O*0,+"750)65+".+556">80.;O*0,+"+,+87+-*/6">804*,/*65+H"/A+".+8*46".655+"E5;--;6O*0,*".+55Q0EE+8-6"
+".6*"/0,E5*--*"7+,+865(+,-+"/8+1/+,-*">+8"5Q;-*5*OO0".+55+"8*1081+"*.8*/A+%"P"/088*1>0,.+,-*"8*1/A*"+/0,0(*/*"
>+8"75*"0>+86-08*H"/01d"/0(+"75*"+EE+--*"7+,+865*".+55+"/0,.*O*0,*"/5*(6-*/A+"+".+*"/0,E5*--*">+8"5+"8*1081+"*.8*_
/A+H",0,"10,0"6.+7;6-6(+,-+">8+1*"*,"/0,1*.+86O*0,+",+556"465;-6O*0,+".+*"8*1/A*".+75*"*(>*6,-*"0"
,+55Q611+7,6O*0,+".+55+"/0,/+11*0,*"G6."+1%"/0(+"/8*-+8*"(*,*(*"R;65*"5Q+1>01*O*0,+H"56".*1>0,*)*5*-N".*""
6/R;6H"*"/0,E5*--*".*";-*5*OO0",+556"8+7*0,+H"+//%J%"
"
9"!"Y
Z-.).%'6++
Distribuzione settoriale delle competenze
7'8>-!:'$:'&&,$%,"+e"68-%"2">;,-0"#"F-%"';-0,0(*6D":'88,&:+'""
7'8>-!:'$:'&&,$%,!+e"68-%"&&K"/%"#"C01-%J">&'()*+'$,<!%&31>'&%'!,!(+1%&+9)*+'$,!$3*+'$3;,!(,;;Q,$,&=+3""
7'8>-!>&+83&+3D"+e"68-%"B">;,-0"!9"F-%"';-0,0(*6D"+$()1%&+3!3;9,&=A+,&3"
7'8>-!>&+83&+3D"+e"68-%"B">;,-0"2"F-%"';-0,0(*6D"3&%+=+3$3%'"""
7'8>-!>&+83&+3"+e"68-%"B">;,-0"&B"F-%"';-0,0(*6D"/0(;,*/6O*0,*",!%&31>'&%+!(+!+$%,&,11,!>&'D+$:+3;,!
"
Tabella 12: Sintesi dei rischi principali, dell’idoneità degli strumenti politici per la gestione dei rischi climatici,
dell’orizzonte temporale da considerare e delle responsabilità (P=competenza esclusiva della Provincia, S=compe-
tenza esclusiva dello Stato, C=concorrente) per il settore Economia
"
Rischi chiave settoriali (abbreviatura)
Idoneità
Orizzonte
temporale
Responsabi-
lità
Compromissione della produttività dei lavoratori
Bassa
Breve termine
P
Aumento del consumo energetico e dei costi di stoccaggio e
trasporto dei prodotti sensibili alla temperatura
Bassa
Breve termine
C
Danni a edifici, merci immagazzinate, macchinari o attrezza-
ture
Media
Lungo termine
P
Aumento dei conflitti di utilizzo dell'acqua tra diversi settori
economici e la cittadinanza
Media
Lungo termine
P + C
Scarsità di approvvigionamento e minore sicurezza dell'
approvvigionamento
Bassa
Lungo termine
P
Perdita di competitività delle imprese nazionali a causa di
rischi transitori
Media
Medio termine
P + C
"
<*,086"56">05*-*/6"+/0,0(*/6"+"*,.;1-8*65+".+556"@804*,/*6",0,"1*"["R;61*"(6*"*,-+8+116-6"6*"8*1/A*"/5*(6-*/*"
1+--08*65*"+",0,">8+1+,-6"/0,-+,;-*".*8+--*"*,"R;+1-0"1+,10",+55+"8+56-*4+".*1>01*O*0,*%"P"8*1/A*"/5*(6-*/*".*"
*(>08-6,O6"*,-+81+--08*65+H"/0(+"*".6,,*"655+"*,E861-8;--;8+"+"6*")+,*"0"5Q6>>8044*7*0,6(+,-0"*.8*/0"+"*"
8+56-*4*"/0,E5*--*".*";-*5*OO0H"10,0".*1/*>5*,6-*".655+"8*1>+--*4+".*1>01*O*0,*".*"65-8*"1+--08*"+"10,0"R;*,.*">68_
O*65(+,-+"/0,1*.+86-*",+556"(*1;86"10>86".+1/8*--6%"@+8"R;6,-0"8*7;68.6"5Q6>>8044*7*0,6(+,-0"*.8*/0H"50"
1/68*/0".+55Q6/R;6">+8"1/0>*"+/0,0(*/*"A6"1050";,6">8*08*-N")6116"*,"/610".*"1/681*-N".Q6/R;6H"(+,-8+"65"
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.+1/8*--6"*,"65-8*"1+--08*"+"/A+"8*/A*+.+">80/+11*".*"7+1-*0,+"/088*1>0,.+,-*%"\+5"1+--08+"678*/050"1*">80_
(;04+"56"/8+6O*0,+".*".*1-8+--*"65*(+,-68*">+8"7686,-*8+"56"1*/;8+OO6"65*(+,-68+"+"5+"E*5*+8+">80.;--*4+%"b6"
1*/;8+OO6".+75*"6>>8044*7*0,6(+,-*".+4+"+11+8+"7686,-*-6H"-86"5Q65-80H"/0,"6//08.*".*"E*5*+86H"(6",0,"4*+,+"
>8+1-6-6";,Q6--+,O*0,+"750)65+">+8"-;--*"*"/0(>68-*"+/0,0(*/*"1;5"8*1/A*0".*";,6"8*.;O*0,+".+556"1*/;8+OO6"
.+55Q6>>8044*7*0,6(+,-0".*"(6-+8*+">8*(+"+">80.0--*"*,-+8(+.*"6"/6;16".+*"8*1/A*"/5*(6-*/*"/A+"/05>*_
1/0,0"*">68-,+8"/0((+8/*65*%"b6"1*-;6O*0,+"["1*(*5+">+8"R;6,-0"8*7;68.6"*5"8*1/A*0"/A+"5Q6;(+,-0".+55+"
-+(>+86-;8+"+"5+"0,.6-+".*"/6508+"/0(>80(+--6,0"56">80.;--*4*-N".+*"564086-08*H"/A+"4*+,+"6EE80,-6-0"*,"
&!:"
"
(0.0"4670",+75*"1-8;(+,-*".*">*6,*E*/6O*0,+"16,*-68*6H"(6"1+,O6"65/;,6"1>+/*E*/6O*0,+"8*7;68.0"655Q*(_
>6--0"1;55+"6--*4*-N".+*"564086-08*"0"1;*"/01-*".*"1-0//677*0"+"-861>08-0%"
" "
&!?"
"
5.5
Mappatura degli stakeholder
Autrici e autore: Chiara Pellegrini, Michael Pörnbacher, Lydia Pedoth
"
Introduzione
b6"(6>>6-;86".+75*"1-6l+A05.+8"[";,">80/+110".*"*.+,-*E*/6O*0,+H"6,65*1*"+"/5611*E*/6O*0,+".+55+".*4+81+"
>68-*"/0*,405-+"0"*,E5;+,O6-+".6";,">807+--0"0";,Q*,*O*6-*46H"75*"1-6l+A05.+8"6>>;,-0"G<8++(6,H"!9&9J%"@+8"
R;+1-0"86>>08-0"/A+"6,65*OO6"*"8*1/A*"/5*(6-*/*"+"E08,*1/+"86//0(6,.6O*0,*">+8"5Q6.6--6(+,-0"6*"/6()*6_
(+,-*"/5*(6-*/*"*,"'5-0"'.*7+H"*5">80/+110".*"(6>>6-;86"A6"/0,1+,-*-0".*"*,.*4*.;68+"(05-+>5*/*"1-6l+A05_
.+8"/A+"0>+86,0".*8+--6(+,-+"0"*,.*8+--6(+,-+"1;*"-+(*".+55Q6.6--6(+,-0"6*"/6()*6(+,-*"/5*(6-*/*"+"
/A+">0110,0"+11+8+"/0*,405-*"+I0"*,E5;+,O6-*".655Q*(>5+(+,-6O*0,+".+55+"(*1;8+"1+--08*65*"+"-86,1+--08*65*"
1;77+8*-+"*,")61+"655Q6()*-0".*"/0(>+-+,O6H"/0,-8*);+,.0"/01d"6."6;(+,-68+"56"5+7*--*(*-NH"5Q6//+--6_
O*0,+"+"56"(+116"*,"/6(>0".+556"1-86-+7*6%""
Z;+1-6"1+O*0,+"8*>08-6"*"8*1;5-6-*".+556"(6>>6-;86"/0,"5Q0)*+--*40".*"E08,*8+";,6">6,086(*/6"7+,+865+".+_
75*"1-6l+A05.+8"6778+76-*">+8"1+--08*"+">+8"(6/80/6-+708*+H"0EE8+,.0,+";,Q6,65*1*">8+5*(*,68+".+55+"/0(_
>+-+,O+H"786.0".Q*,E5;+,O6"+">0-+,O*65+"0>+86-*40",+556"7+1-*0,+"+"*(>5+(+,-6O*0,+".+55+"(*1;8+".*"
6.6--6(+,-0"6*"/6()*6(+,-*"/5*(6-*/*%""
Metodologia
b6"(+-0.0507*6";-*5*OO6-6"GT++."+-"65%"!992JH"1*"1-8;--;86*"*,"-8+"E61*"/0,1+/;-*4+"6"/;*"A6,,0"/0,-8*);*-0"*"
8*/+8/6-08*"+"8*/+8/6-8*/*".*"W;86/"T+1+68/A%"L;86,-+"56">8*(6"E61+H"["1-6-0"+1+7;*-0";,")86*,1-08(*,7">+8"
*.+,-*E*/68+"75*"1-6l+A05.+8"*,"07,;,0".+*"&$"1+--08*"*,/5;1*",+550"1-;.*01H"/A+"10,0"+"1686,,0"(05-0">80_
)6)*5(+,-+"/05>*-*".675*"*(>6--*".+*"/6()*6(+,-*"/5*(6-*/*%"\+556"1+/0,.6"E61+H"07,*"1-6l+A05.+8"["1-6-0"
465;-6-0".65"78;>>0".*"8*/+8/6"*,")61+"65"5*4+550">+8/+>*-0".*"/0,01/+,O6H"*,E5;+,O6"+"/6>6/*-N"0>+86-*46"*,"
6()*-0".*"6.6--6(+,-0"6*"/6()*6(+,-*"/5*(6-*/*"G',.8["+-"65%H"!9&!J%"P,E*,+H"5+"465;-6O*0,*"10,0"1-6-+"
6,65*OO6-+"1-6-*1-*/6(+,-+"+"75*"1-6l+A05.+8"10,0"1-6-*"86778;>>6-*"1+/0,.0"*5"1+--08+".*"6>>68-+,+,O6"
>8*(68*0"+"1+/0,.68*0%""
Risultati
b6"(6>>6-;86"8*4+56"/A+"6--;65(+,-+"1;5"-+88*-08*0">804*,/*65+"0>+86,0"&KB"1-6l+A05.+8"/A+"10,0"+"16_
86,,0"*,E5;+,O6-*".675*"*(>6--*".+5"/6()*6(+,-0"/5*(6-*/0"G<*7;86"!$J%"P"1+--08*"/0,"*5",;(+80"(677*08+"
.*"1-6l+A05.+8"/0*,405-*"*,/5;.0,0"*,1+.*6(+,-*"+"*,E861-8;--;8+"G&#"qJH"678*/05-;86"G&&"qJH")*0.*4+81*-N"+"
-;-+56"6()*+,-65+"G&9"qJH"*,.;1-8*6"+"1+84*O*"G&9"qJ%"F+7;0,0"1+--08*"/0,";,",;(+80"f*,-+8(+.*0g".*""
1-6l+A05.+8H"R;+550"10/*0/;5-;865+"+".+5")+,+11+8+"GB"qJH"165;-+"+"16,*-N"G:"qJH"1+54*/05-;86"G:"qJ"+">80-+_
O*0,+"/*4*5+"G:"qJ%"P,E*,+H"*"1+--08*"/0,"*5"(*,08",;(+80".*"1-6l+A05.+8"6--*46(+,-+"*(>+7,6-*",+55Q6.6--6_
(+,-0"65"/6()*6(+,-0"/5*(6-*/0"/0(>8+,.0,0"+,+87*6"G$"qJH"-;8*1(0"G$"qJH"+"7+1-*0,+"*.8*/6"G!"qJ%"P,"
R;+1-*"1+--08*H"56"(6,/6,O6".*"1-6l+A05.+8"6>>68-+,+,-*"6556"10/*+-N"/*4*5+"0876,*OO6-6"+",0,"0876,*OO6-6"
>08-6"6";,6"5080"10--086>>8+1+,-6O*0,+",+556">*6,*E*/6O*0,+">68-+/*>6-*46"+",+55Q*(>5+(+,-6O*0,+".+55+"
(*1;8+".*"6.6--6(+,-0">80>01-+%"
"
1 agricoltura, biodiversità e tutela ambientale, energia, selvicoltura, salute e sanità, industria e servizi, insediamenti e infrastrutture, turismo, gestione idrica,
protezione civile, educazione, settore socioculturale e del benessere, intersettoriale.
&!K"
"
"
Figura 24: Percentuale e numero di stakeholder per settore
V5*"1-6l+A05.+8"(6>>6-*"10,0"1-6-*">0*"/5611*E*/6-*"*,"R;6--80"(6/80/6-+708*+%"b6"/6-+708*6"f*1-*-;O*0,*"+"
0876,*OO6O*0,*">05*-*/A+g"G$$"qJ"86>>8+1+,-6"56"(677*086,O6".+75*"1-6l+A05.+8H"1+7;*-0".6"*,.;1-8*6H");1*_
,+11"+"E*,6,O6"G#9"qJH"/A+"*,/5;.+"6O*+,.+H"6110/*6O*0,*".*"6O*+,.+"+"08.*,*">80E+11*0,65*%"b6"-+8O6"/6-+70_
8*6"["86>>8+1+,-6-6".6"0876,*OO6O*0,*".+556"10/*+-N"/*4*5+H"(+.*6"+"/;5-;86"G&B"qJH".*"/;*"E6,,0">68-+"6110_
/*6O*0,*"/;5-;865*H"8+5*7*01+H".*"-;-+56"6()*+,-65+"+".+55Q6()*+,-+"65>*,0%"P,E*,+H"75*"1-6l+A05.+8".+5"(0,.0"
6//6.+(*/0"+".+556"8*/+8/6"G?"qJ"*,/5;.0,0"75*"+,-*".*"8*/+8/6">804*,/*65*. b6"1/6816">68-+/*>6O*0,+".+556"
10/*+-N"/*4*5+"+".+5"1+--08+".+556"8*/+8/6"/01-*-;*1/+";,"E6--08+"5*(*-6,-+">0*/Ac";,6">68-+"1*7,*E*/6-*46"
.+55Q6.6--6(+,-0"1*")616"1;556"1+,1*)*5*OO6O*0,+"+"1;55Q*,E08(6O*0,+"6556"/*--6.*,6,O6H"+"1;55Q*,,046O*0,+%"
"
29
~11%
28
~10%
13
~5%
11
~4%
42
~15%
14
~5%
10
~4%
13
~5%
14
~5%
26
~10%
35
~13%
21
~8%
11
~4%
6
~2%
Gestione dell'acqua
Energia
Cambiamento climatico
Turismo
Protezione civile
Foresta
Educazione
Salute e cura
Sociocultura e benessere
Settore industriale e dei servizi
Biodiversità e protezione della natura
Agricultura
Insediamenti e infrastrutture critiche
Intersettoriale
010 20 30 40
Frequenza
Tutti i settori
&!B"
"
"
Figura 25: Percentuale e numero di stakeholder per macrocategoria
@+8"R;6,-0"8*7;68.6"*"8*1;5-6-*".+556"465;-6O*0,+".+*"-8+"/8*-+8*".*"/0,01/+,O6H"*,E5;+,O6"+"/6>6/*-N"0>+86_
-*46".+75*"1-6l+A05.+8"*,"8+56O*0,+"655Q6.6--6(+,-0"6*"/6()*6(+,-*"/5*(6-*/*H"1*"+4*.+,O*6";,6",+--6">056_
8*OO6O*0,+"-86"75*"1-6l+A05.+8",+*".*4+81*"1+--08*"GT,A;,&U!0,&V,+1P),;;,!W'$$%,!$+:A%!=,2)$(,$!V,&(,$-J%""
V5*"1-6l+A05.+8".+5"1+--08+"1+54*/05-;86H"7+1-*0,+"*.8*/6H"678*/05-;86"+">80-+O*0,+"/*4*5+"1+()86,0">011+_
.+8+";,6");0,6"/0,01/+,O6".+*"8*1/A*"/5*(6-*/*%"F0,0"*,"786.0".*"*,E5;+,O68+"*5">80/+110".+/*1*0,65+""
8*7;68.6,-+"5+"(*1;8+".*"6.6--6(+,-0H"+">011*+.0,0"5+"/6>6/*-N"0>+86-*4+",+/+1168*+">+8"-86.;88+"5+""
(*1;8+"*,1+8*-+",+556"1-86-+7*6"*,"6O*0,*"/0,/8+-+"1;5"/6(>0%"L*4+816(+,-+H"*5"1+--08+")*0.*4+81*-N"+"-;-+56"
6()*+,-65+">011*+.+"+5+46-+"/0,01/+,O+"+"/6>6/*-N"0>+86-*4+">+8"5Q6.6--6(+,-0"6*"/6()*6(+,-*"/5*(6_
-*/*H"(6"8*1;5-6"*5"(+,0"*,E5;+,-+",+*">80/+11*".+/*1*0,65*%"Z;+1-0">0-8+))+"1*7,*E*/68+";,6"1/6816"86>>8+_
1+,-6,O6">05*-*/6".*";,"1+--08+"/A+"8*1;5-6"/8;/*65+%""
V5*"1-6l+A05.+8",+*"1+--08*".+55Q+,+87*6H".+75*"*,1+.*6(+,-*"+"*,E861-8;--;8+"+".+5"-;8*1(0"(01-86,0";,6"
/0,01/+,O6".*1/8+-6H";,Q*,E5;+,O6"(+.*6"(6">0-+,O*65(+,-+");0,+"/6>6/*-N"0>+86-*4+%"@+8"R;+1-0""
(0-*40H";,"5080"/0*,4057*(+,-0"(*86-0",+556">*6,*E*/6O*0,+"+"*(>5+(+,-6O*0,+".+55+"(*1;8+".*"6.6--6_
(+,-0">0-8+))+"E6408*8+">01*-*46(+,-+"5Q6--;6O*0,+".+55+"6O*0,*">80>01-+",+556"E;-;86"1-86-+7*6%""
P,E*,+H"75*"1-6l+A05.+8"/0*,405-*",+*"1+--08*".+556"16,*-N"+"165;-+H"+.;/6O*0,+H"*,.;1-8*6"+"1+84*O*H"10/*0/;5_
-;865+"+")+,+11+8+"1+()86,0"64+8+";,6"/0,01/+,O6"5*(*-6-6H"1/6816"*,E5;+,O6"+"5*(*-6-+"/6>6/*-N"0>+86_
-*4+">+8"6EE80,-68+"5Q6.6--6(+,-0"6*"/6()*6(+,-*"/5*(6-*/*%"C0,1*.+86,.0"5Q*(>08-6,O6"10/*65+".*"R;+1-*"
1+--08*H"8*1;5-6"E0,.6(+,-65+"E08,*8+"5080";,Q6.+7;6-6"E08(6O*0,+"1;5"-+(6"+"/0*,4057+85*"6--*46(+,-+"
,+556"/0(>8+,1*0,+".+5"5080"8;050",+55Q6.6--6(+,-0%""
"
11
~6%
32
~18%
78
~44%
54
~30%
Altro
Academia
Società civile, media e cultura
Industria, economia e nanza
Governo e sistema politico
020 40 60 80
Frequenza
Tipo
&!2"
"
"
Figura 26: Distribuzione degli stakeholder per grado di conoscenza, influenza e capacità operativa in ogni settore
"
Sommario
b6"(6>>6-;86".+75*"1-6l+A05.+8"86>>8+1+,-6";,">8*(0">6110">+8"*.+,-*E*/68+"+"1-;.*68+"5+"468*+">68-*"
/0*,405-*".*8+--6(+,-+"+"*,.*8+--6(+,-+",+556"7+1-*0,+".+*"8*1/A*"+",+55Q6.6--6(+,-0"6*"/6()*6(+,-*""
/5*(6-*/*%"L6*"8*1;5-6-*">8+5*(*,68*"+(+87+"56",+/+11*-N".*";,"/0*,4057*(+,-0"-8614+8165+"+"(;5-*1+--08*65+"
.+75*"1-6l+A05.+8"/0,"5Q0)*+--*40".*"E6408*8+";,0"1/6()*0".*"/0,01/+,O+"+"/0(>+-+,O+"-86"1+--08*"/A+"6-_
-;65(+,-+"1*"-8046,0"6"5*4+55*"(05-0".*4+81*">+8"R;6,-0"8*7;68.6"*5"-+(6".+55w6.6--6(+,-0D">*`"+"(+,0"
(6-;8*H">*`"0"(+,0"86>>8+1+,-6-*%"V5*"1-6l+A05.+8"/A+"0>+86,0"*,"1+--08*"/A*64+"/0(+"1+54*/05-;86H"678*_
/05-;86H">80-+O*0,+"/*4*5+"+"7+1-*0,+"*.8*/6"10,0"E0,.6(+,-65*">+8"1;>>08-68+"56"(+116"*,"/6(>0".*""
(*1;8+".*"6.6--6(+,-0H">+8/Ac">011*+.0,0";,");0,"5*4+550".*"/0,01/+,O6H"*,E5;+,O6"+"/6>6/*-N"0>+86_
-*46%"LQ65-86">68-+H"1+--08*".*"E0,.6(+,-65+"*(>08-6,O6"+/0,0(*/0_10/*65+"/0(+"165;-+"+"16,*-NH"*,.;1-8*6"
+"1+84*O*H"+.;/6O*0,+H"10/*0/;5-;865+"+")+,+11+8+",+/+11*-6,0".*";5-+8*08*"1-8;(+,-*"+"/0,01/+,O+">+8"
/0(>8+,.+8+"+"6EE80,-68+"+EE*/6/+(+,-+"*"/6()*6(+,-*"/5*(6-*/*%"P,E*,+H"1+--08*"6."65-0"5*4+550".*"/0,0_
1/+,O6"+"/6>6/*-N"0>+86-*46"/0(+"R;+55*".+556")*0.*4+81*-N"+".+556"-;-+56"6()*+,-65+"8*/A*+.0,0";,"(67_
7*08+"/0*,4057*(+,-0">05*-*/0",+*">80/+11*".+/*1*0,65*">+8"/0,1+,-*8+";,0"1/6()*0".*"/0,01/+,O+"6"1;>_
>08-0".+556">*6,*E*/6O*0,+"+"*(>5+(+,-6O*0,+".+55+"(*1;8+".*"6.6--6(+,-0%"'"-65"E*,+H"56">68-+/*>6O*0,+"
.*8+--6".+556"10/*+-N"/*4*5+"0876,*OO6-6"+",0,"0876,*OO6-6H"/A+"65"(0(+,-0"1+()86"+11+8+"10--086>>8+_
1+,-6-6H"8*1;5-6"E0,.6(+,-65+">+8"56".*EE;1*0,+".+55+"(*1;8+"-86"56">0>056O*0,+".+55Q'5-0"'.*7+%""
"
Bibliografia
– André, K., Simonsson, L., Swartling, Å. G., & Linnér, B. O. (2012). Method development for identifying and analysing stake-
holders in climate change adaptation processes. Journal of Environmental Policy & Planning, 14(3), 243-261.
– Freeman, R. E. (2010). Strategic Management: A Stakeholder Approach.
– Reed, M. S., Graves, A., Dandy, N., Posthumus, H., Hubacek, K., Morris, J., ... & Stringer, L. C. (2009). Who’s in and why? A
typology of stakeholder analysis methods for natural resource management. Journal of environmental management, 90(5),
1933-1949.
" "
Conoscenza Inuenza Agency
0 1 2 3 0 1 2 3 0 1 2 3
Sociocultura e benessere
Settore industriale e dei servizi
Educazione
Salute e cura
Intersettoriale
Energia
Insediamenti e infrastrutture critiche
Turismo
Biodiversità e protezione della natura
Protezione civile
Agricultura
Cambiamento climatico
Gestione dell'acqua
Foresta
(n = 8)
(n = 16)
(n = 6)
(n = 11)
(n = 41)
(n = 5)
(n = 25)
(n = 9)
(n = 12)
(n = 9)
(n = 22)
(n = 2)
(n = 2)
(n = 10)
Settore principale
Valore
	"
"
6 Valutazione del rischio e sintesi
Autrice e autore: Kathrin Renner, Marc Zebisch
"
6.1
Valutazione del rischio
bQ0)*+--*40".+556"465;-6O*0,+".+5"8*1/A*0"+".+55Q;87+,O6"/0,1*1-+",+55Q*.+,-*E*/6O*0,+".+*"8*1/A*"/5*(6-*/*"/A+"
8*/A*+.0,0"*5"(677*08",;(+80".*"*,-+84+,-*%"Z;+1-6"$,:,11+%B!(+!3*+'$,".+8*46".6"R;6--80"E6--08*D"
a 56"=&3D+%B!(,+!&+1:A+!:;+83%+:+"G.6")6116"6"(05-0"+5+46-6JH"1;556")61+".+55Q6,65*1*".+*"8*1/A*".+*",04+"
/6(>*".Q6O*0,+"+".+55+"/0(>+-+,O+".+75*"+1>+8-*"
a 56":,&%,**3"1;*"8*1/A*"/5*(6-*/*m"(677*08*"10,0"56"/0,01/+,O6".*";,">68-*/0568+"8*1/A*0"+"*5"786.0".*""
/0,1+,10"1;"-65+"/0,01/+,O6H">*`"65-6"["56"/+8-+OO6"
a 5Q3(,=)3%,**3".+75*"1-8;(+,-*">05*-*/*"6>>5*/6)*5*"655Q'5-0"'.*7+"
a 5Q'&+**'$%,!%,8>'&3;,"*,"/;*"5Q6O*0,+".+4+"+11+8+"*,-86>8+16m"5+"(*1;8+"/A+"A6,,0"5;,7A*"-+(>*".*"
8+65*OO6O*0,+".+40,0"+11+8+"6EE80,-6-+"/0,"(677*08+";87+,O6"8*1>+--0"6"R;+55+"/A+">0110,0"+11+8+"
*,-80.0--+"6."A0/%"
Z;+1-0"/6>*-050".+1/8*4+"*,,6,O*-;--0"*5"(+-0.0".*"6//+8-6(+,-0".+55Q;87+,O6".+*"8*1/A*"/5*(6-*/*H"+5+,_
/6,.0">0*"*"8*1;5-6-*".+556"465;-6O*0,+">+8"07,*"/6(>0".Q6O*0,+%"
"
@+8"/*61/;,0".+*"8*1/A*"/A*64+"*.+,-*E*/6-*",+55Q6,65*1*".+5"8*1/A*0"G/6>%"$JH"56"465;-6O*0,+"A6".+-+8(*,6-0"56"
7864*-N".+5"8*1/A*0"1;";,6"1/656".6"(05-0"+5+46-6"6")6116"1;556")61+".+55Q6,65*1*".+5"8*1/A*0"/5*(6-*/0"+"
.+55+"/0,01/+,O+".+75*"+1>+8-*"/A+"A6,,0"+EE+--;6-0"56"465;-6O*0,+%"P"8*1/A*"10,0"1-6-*"465;-6-*">+8".;+"
08*OO0,-*"-+(>0865*H"*5">8+1+,-+IE;-;80">8011*(0"G!9!&"_"!9$9J"+"*5"E;-;80"6"(+.*0"-+8(*,+"G!9$&"_"!9?9J%"
k//088+8+))+".*EE+8+,O*68+"+1>5*/*-6(+,-+"56"7864*-N".+5"8*1/A*0"*,";,0"1/+,68*0"6"+(*11*0,*"65-+"+")611+"
,+5">+8*0.0"6"5;,70"-+8(*,+H"(6"R;+1-0",0,"["5Q077+--0".+556">8+1+,-+"*,.67*,+%"b+".*EE+8+,O+"-86"*"8*1/A*"
6110/*6-+"6"1/+,68*"1>+/*E*/*"/A+"/0*,40570,0"E6--08*"/5*(6-*/*"+",0,"/5*(6-*/*"6"(+.*0"-+8(*,+">0110,0"
+11+8+"68-*/056-+"*,"E08(6".*"-+1-0%"'75*"+1>+8-*"/A+"A6,,0"+EE+--;6-0"56"465;-6O*0,+"10,0"1-6-+"E08,*-+"5+"
5*,++"7;*.6";-*5*">+8">80/+.+8+H"/A+"*,/5;.+46,0"56".+E*,*O*0,+".+*"5*4+55*".*"465;-6O*0,+"GU6)+556"&#J%"b6"
/+8-+OO6"1*")616"1;"-*>0H"R;6,-*-NH"R;65*-N"+"/0+8+,O6".+55+">804+"+1*1-+,-*H"05-8+"/A+"1;5"786.0".*"/0,_
1+,10"*,"8*E+8*(+,-0"655+"/0,01/+,O+"6--;65*%"
"
Tabella 13: Definizioni dei livelli di valutazione dei rischi
4 Livello molto ele-
vato (catastrofico))
Danni e perdite significative e frequenti (circa 1 % del PIL; 100 vittime, 1.000 persone
colpite; 10 % del territorio della Provincia). Perdita di funzionalità del sistema, irreversibi-
lità delle conseguenze, grande portata, altissima diffusione, alto potenziale di soglie
d'impatto o punti critici, effetti a cascata oltre i confini del sistema, rischio sistemico. Il
sistema ha un’importanza fondamentale per l'Alto Adige.
3 Livello elevato
(critico)
Danni e perdite significative e frequenti (circa 0,25 - 1 % del PIL; 10 vittime, 100 persone
colpite; 5 – 10 % della superficie), interruzione della funzionalità del sistema, effetti a
lungo termine, ampia portata e alta diffusione, potenziale di soglie d'impatto o punti
critici, effetti a cascata oltre i confini del sistema e rischio sistemico. Il sistema è impor-
tante per l'Alto Adige.
2 Livello moderato
Perdite e danni moderati e occasionali (circa 0,05 % - 0,25 % del PIL; 1 vittima; 1 - 5 %
della superficie della Provincia), moderata interruzione della funzionalità del sistema; gli
effetti sono temporanei o si sviluppano lentamente con estensione/diffusione moderata.
Il sistema ha un’importanza media per l'Alto Adige.
1 Livello ridotto
Perdite e danni nulli o bassi o poco frequenti (meno dello 0,05 % del PIL; nessuna
interruzione della funzionalità. Il sistema ha scarsa importanza per l'Alto Adige.
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Tabella 14: Matrice di valutazione dell'urgenza
"
Valutazione dell’urgenza della necessità di intervento
Gravità del
rischio
Certezza
Adeguatezza degli strumenti politici esistenti
Avanzata
Media
Bassa
Molto ele-
vata (cata-
strofica)
Elevata
Elevata
Necessità di ulteriori
misure e analisi
Urgente
Necessità di misure
urgenti
Urgente
Necessità di misure
urgenti
Media
Elevata
Necessità di ulteriori
misure e analisi
Urgente
Necessità di misure
urgenti e di ulteriori
analisi
Urgente
Necessità di misure
urgenti e di ulteriori
analisi
Ridotta
Elevata
Necessità di ulteriori
misure flessibili e analisi
Elevata
Necessità di ulteriori
misure flessibili e analisi
Urgente
Necessità di misure
urgenti e di ulteriori
analisi
Elevata (cri-
tica)
Elevata
Media
Proseguimento delle
misure in corso e ulteriori
analisi
Elevata
Necessità di ulteriori
misure e analisi
Elevata
Necessità di ulteriori
misure e analisi
Media
Media
Proseguimento delle
misure in corso e ulteriori
analisi
Elevata
Necessità di ulteriori
misure e analisi
Elevata
Necessità di ulteriori
misure e analisi
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Ridotta
Media
Proseguimento delle
misure in corso e ulteriori
analisi
Media
Proseguimento delle
misure in corso e ulteriori
analisi
Elevata
Necessità di ulteriori
misure flessibili e analisi
Media
Elevata
Ridotta
Osservazione di breve
durata
Media
Proseguimento delle
misure in corso e ulteriori
analisi
Media
Proseguimento delle
misure in corso e ulteriori
analisi
Media
Ridotta
Osservazione di breve
durata
Media
Proseguimento delle
misure in corso e ulteriori
analisi
Media
Proseguimento delle
misure in corso e ulteriori
analisi
Ridotta
Ridotta
Osservazione di breve
durata
Ridotta
Osservazione di breve
durata
Media
Proseguimento delle
misure in corso e ulteriori
analisi
Ridotta
Elevata
Ridotta
Osservazione di breve
durata
Ridotta
Osservazione di breve
durata
Ridotta
Osservazione di breve
durata
Media
Ridotta
Osservazione di breve
durata
Ridotta
Osservazione di breve
durata
Ridotta
Osservazione di breve
durata
Ridotta
Ridotta
Osservazione di breve
durata
Ridotta
Osservazione di breve
durata
Ridotta
Osservazione di breve
durata
"
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6.2
Risultati dell’urgenza della necessità di intervento per
campo d’azione
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8*>08-6-*"R;*".*"1+7;*-0H"1+/0,.0"56"5+7+,.6".+556"U6)+556"&:%"
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Tabella 15: Classificazione di urgenza, gravità e certezza.
Urgenza della necessità di intervento
Grado di gravità del rischio
Certezza
Urgente
1 – 1,5
Molto elevato
+++
Elevata
Elevata
2 – 2,5
Elevato
++
Media
Media
3 – 3,5
Moderato
+
Ridotta
Ridotta
4
Ridotto
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"
Tabella 16: elenco delle valutazioni dei rischi climatici nel campo d'azione della gestione delle acque.
Rischi climatici
Urgenza della neces-
sità di intervento
Grado di gravità
del rischio
Caratteristiche degli strumenti politici
2021 -
2040
2041 -
2060
Adegua-
tezza degli
strumenti
politici
Orizzonte
temporale
della
politica
Responsabi-
lità per i
rischi
1) Mancanza d’acqua
per garantire il
deflusso ecologico con
impatti sulla salute
degli ecosistemi acqua-
tici e peggioramento
della qualità dell’acqua
Elevata
Necessità di ulteriori
misure e analisi
2,5 ++
1 ++
Media
A breve
termine
Concorrente
2) Aumento di tempe-
ratura delle acque, con
impatti sulla salute
degli ecosistemi
Elevata
Necessità di ulteriori
misure e analisi
3 ++
2 ++
Bassa
A breve
termine
Concorrente
3) Aumento del tra-
sporto di sedimenti per
effetto dello sciogli-
mento dei ghiacciai,
con conseguenti per-
turbazioni dei bacini e
dei sistemi fluviali
Elevata
Necessità di ulteriori
misure e analisi
2 ++
2 ++
Media
A medio
termine
Concorrente
4) Diminuzione della
quantità e della qualità
Media
2,5 ++
2 ++
Avanzata
A lungo
termine
Concorrente
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dell’acqua per uso po-
tabile
Proseguimento delle
misure in corso e
ulteriori analisi
5) Mancanza d’acqua
per l’irrigazione delle
colture e dei prati
Elevata
Necessità di ulteriori
misure flessibili e
analisi
2,5 ++
2 ++
Media
A lungo
termine
Concorrente
6) Mancanza d’acqua
per la produzione di
energia elettrica
Elevata
Necessità di ulteriori
misure e analisi
3 ++
2 +
Bassa
A lungo
termine
Concorrente
7) Mancanza d’acqua
per garantire l’inneva-
mento artificiale
Elevata
Necessità di ulteriori
misure e analisi
3 ++
2 ++
Media
A lungo
termine
Concorrente
8) Mancanza d’acqua
per garantire gli usi
idrici a fini ricreativi nel
periodo estivo
Elevata
Necessità di ulteriori
misure e analisi
3 ++
2 ++
Bassa
A lungo
termine
Concorrente
9) Danni agli ecosi-
stemi, agli insedia-
menti e alle infra-
strutture a causa delle
inondazioni
Urgente
Necessità di misure
urgenti e di ulteriori
analisi
2 +++
1 ++
Media
A lungo
termine
Concorrente
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Tabella 17: Elenco delle valutazioni dei rischi climatici nel campo d'azione della biodiversità.
Rischi climatici
Urgenza della neces-
sità di intervento
Grado di gravità
del rischio
Caratteristiche degli strumenti politici
2021 -
2040
2041 -
2060
Adegua-
tezza degli
strumenti
politici
Orizzonte
temporale
della
politica
Responsa-
bilità per i
rischi
1) Biodiversità dei tipi di
foresta rari
Media
Proseguimento delle
misure in corso e
ulteriori analisi
2,5 ++
3 ++
Bassa
A lungo
termine
Esclusiva +
con-
corrente
2) Biodiversità forestale:
immigrazione di specie
vegetali invasive
Urgente
Necessità di misure
urgenti
1,5 +++
2 ++
Media
A breve
termine
Esclusiva
3) Biodiversità forestale:
maggiore frequenza di
incendi
Media
Proseguimento delle
misure in corso e
ulteriori analisi
2,5 ++
2 +
Avanzata
A medio
termine
Esclusiva
4) Habitat alpini: diffu-
sione di specie termofile
Elevata
Necessità di ulteriori
misure e analisi
2,5 ++
2 ++
Media
A medio
termine
Esclusiva +
con-
corrente
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5) Habitat e specie legati
ai ghiacciai
Urgente
Necessità di misure
urgenti e di ulteriori
analisi
2 +++
1 ++
Bassa
A lungo
termine
Esclusiva
dello Stato
e della Pro-
vincia
+ con-
corrente
6) Specie alpine con sot-
topopolazioni piccole e
isolate
Elevata
Necessità di ulteriori
misure flessibili e
analisi
2 ++
2,5 +
Bassa
A lungo
termine
Esclusiva
dello Stato
e della Pro-
vincia
+ concor-
rente
7) Comunità di specie dei
terreni agricoli ad
elevato valore
naturalistico
Elevata
Necessità di ulteriori
misure e analisi
2 ++
2 ++
Media
A medio
termine
Esclusiva
dello Stato
e della Pro-
vincia
+ concor-
rente
8) Comunità di specie di
torbiere/laghi a causa di
sottopopolazioni piccole
e isolate
Urgente
Necessità di misure
urgenti e di ulteriori
analisi
1,5 +++
1 ++
Bassa
A medio
termine
Esclusiva
dello Stato
e della Pro-
vincia
+ concor-
rente
9) Habitat palustri: per-
dita di zone umide
Media
Proseguimento delle
misure in corso e
ulteriori analisi
2 ++
3 ++
Media
A medio
termine
Esclusiva
dello Stato
e della Pro-
vincia
+ concor-
rente
10) Biocenosi lacustri do-
vute all'eccessiva
temperatura dell'acqua
Urgente
Necessità di misure
flessibili e di ulteriori
analisi
2 ++
1,5 +
Bassa
A medio
termine
Esclusiva
dello Stato
e della Pro-
vincia
+ concor-
rente
11) Biodiversità dei corsi
d'acqua dovuta al loro
prosciugamento
Urgente
Necessità di misure ur-
genti e di ulteriori
analisi
1,5 ++
1,5 ++
Media
A breve ter-
mine
Esclusiva
dello Stato
e della Pro-
vincia
+ concor-
rente
12) Biodiversità dei corsi
d'acqua dovuta a flussi
d'acqua insufficienti
Elevata
Necessità di ulteriori
misure e analisi
2 ++
2 ++
Media
A medio
termine
Esclusiva
dello Stato
e della Pro-
vincia
+ concor-
rente
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13) Biodiversità dei corsi
d'acqua dovuta a
neobiota invasivi
Media
Proseguimento delle
misure in corso e
ulteriori analisi
2 ++
2,5 ++
Avanzata
A breve ter-
mine
Esclusiva
dello Stato
e della Pro-
vincia
+ concor-
rente
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Tabella 18: Elenco delle valutazioni dei rischi climatici nel campo d'azione dell’agricoltura.
Rischi climatici
Urgenza della necessità
di intervento
Grado di gravità
del rischio
Caratteristiche degli strumenti politici
2021 -
2040
2041 -
2060
Adegua-
tezza degli
strumenti
politici
Orizzonte
temporale
della
politica
Responsa-
bilità per i
rischi
1) Perdita di resa forag-
gera nelle aree a prato
Elevata
Necessità di ulteriori
misure e analisi
2 ++
2 ++
Bassa
A breve
termine
Esclusiva
2) Stress da calore negli
allevamenti e calo della
resa nell'industria
lattiero-casearia
Media
Proseguimento delle
misure in corso e ulte-
riori analisi
3 ++
3 ++
Bassa
A medio
termine
Esclusiva
3) Calo delle rese o
danni alle colture
permanenti
Elevata
Necessità di ulteriori
misure
2 +++
2 +++
Bassa
A breve
termine
Esclusiva
4) Svernamento/
sviluppo di nuovi
parassiti
Media
Proseguimento delle
misure in corso
2 +++
2 +++
Avanzata
A breve
termine
Esclusiva
4) Minore garanzia di
resa e qualità dei
prodotti nei seminativi
e nelle colture orticole
Elevata
Necessità di ulteriori
misure e analisi
2 ++
1 ++
Bassa
A breve
termine
Esclusiva
5) Aumento dei costi di
produzione a causa
delle misure di
protezione attiva
Elevata
Necessità di ulteriori
misure
2 +++
2 +++
Media
A breve
termine
Esclusiva
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O*0,+".+*"8*1/A*"/5*(6-*/*",+5"/6(>0".Q6O*0,+".+556"7+1-*0,+"E08+1-65+%"
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Tabella 19: Elenco delle valutazioni dei rischi climatici nel campo d'azione della gestione forestale.
Rischi climatici
Urgenza della necessità
di intervento
Grado di gravità
del rischio
Caratteristiche degli strumenti
politici
2021 -
2040
2041 -
2060
Adegua-
tezza degli
strumenti
politici
Orizzonte
temporale
della
politica
Respon-
sabilità
per i
rischi
1) Danni alle foreste
dovuti a una maggiore
frequenza e gravità di
fenomeni meteo estremi
Urgente
Necessità di misure
urgenti
2 +++
1 +++
Media
A lungo
termine
Esclusiva
2) Scomparsa o sposta-
mento spaziale delle
specie arboree nella zona
altitudinale
Elevata
Necessità di ulteriori
misure
3 ++
2 +++
Bassa
A lungo
termine
Esclusiva
3) Danneggiamento e
scomparsa di vaste aree
forestali a causa di
parassiti/malattie/
perdita di vitalità
Urgente
Necessità di misure
urgenti
1 +++
1 +++
Media
A lungo
termine
Esclusiva
4) Emissioni di carbonio
da incendi boschivi/
sparizione di vaste aree
forestali/riduzione
dell'immagazzinamento
del carbonio
Media
Proseguimento delle
misure in corso e
ulteriori analisi
3 ++
2 ++
Avanzata
A medio
termine
Esclusiva
5) Riduzione della fun-
zione di stoccaggio
dell'acqua e della sua
qualità
Elevata
Necessità di ulteriori
misure e analisi
2 ++
2 ++
Media
A lungo
termine
Esclusiva
6) Rischio di
riduzione/perdita della
funzione protettiva della
foresta a seguito di danni
e declino dei
popolamenti forestali
Urgente
Necessità di misure
urgenti
1 +++
1 +++
Avanzata
A lungo
termine
Esclusiva
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Tabella 20: elenco delle valutazioni dei rischi climatici nel campo d'azione della salute.
Rischi climatici
Urgenza della necessità
di intervento
Grado di gravità
del rischio
Caratteristiche degli strumenti
politici
2021 -
2040
2041 -
2060
Adegua-
tezza de-
gli
strumenti
politici
Orizzonte
tempo-
rale della
politica
Responsabi-
lità per i
rischi
1) Stress da calore e
freddo e inquinamento
atmosferico
Urgente
Necessità di misure
urgenti e di ulteriori ana-
lisi
2 ++
1 ++
Bassa
A medio
termine
Concorrente
2) Malattie infettive
legate al clima
Elevata
Necessità di ulteriori
misure e analisi
2 ++
1,5 ++
Media
A breve
termine
Concorrente
3) Aumento dei disastri
naturali e delle
emergenze all’aperto
Elevata
Necessità di ulteriori
misure e analisi
2 ++
2 ++
Media
A medio
termine
Concorrente
4) Malattie di origine
idrica e alimentare
Elevata
Necessità di ulteriori
misure e analisi
2,5 ++
2,5 ++
Bassa
A medio
termine
Concorrente
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Tabella 21: Elenco delle valutazioni dei rischi climatici nel campo d'azione del turismo.
Rischi climatici
Urgenza della necessità
di intervento
Grado di gravità
del rischio
Caratteristiche degli strumenti
politici
2021 -
2040
2041 -
2060
Adegua-
tezza
degli
strumenti
politici
Orizzonte
tempo-
rale della
politica
Responsabi-
lità per i
rischi
1) Diminuzione dell'
interesse per il turismo
invernale
Elevata
Necessità di ulteriori
misure
3 ++
2 +++
Bassa
A lungo
termine
Esclusiva
2) Sicurezza delle
persone durante la sta-
gione turistica estiva
Elevata
Necessità di ulteriori
misure
3 ++
2 +++
Media
A medio
termine
Esclusiva
3) Sicurezza delle
persone durante la sta-
gione turistica invernale
Media
3 ++
3 ++
Media
A medio
termine
Esclusiva
"
"
Proseguimento delle
misure in corso e ulte-
riori analisi
4) Danni alle infra-
strutture turistiche
Elevata
Necessità di ulteriori
misure e analisi
3 ++
2 ++
Media
A lungo
termine
Esclusiva
+ concor-
rente
5) Riduzione della qualità
della vita per la popola-
zione locale, minore
consapevolezza nei con-
fronti del turismo
Elevata
Necessità di ulteriori
misure e analisi
2+++
2++
Bassa
A medio
termine
Esclusiva
6) Sovraccarico del si-
stema sanitario pubblico
e delle infrastrutture di
mobilità nelle
destinazioni turistiche
Elevata
Necessità di ulteriori
misure e analisi
2 ++
2 ++
Bassa
A lungo
termine
Concorrente
"
"
R"0"V
O)/(,'6%()4F+')B86/*8:L:8(+(+=6*8'%.)'.+-:3*:863(++
b6"U6)+556!!Tabella"*55;1-86"56"465;-6O*0,+".+55Q;87+,O6".+556",+/+11*-N".*"*,-+84+,-0"+"5+"/0(>0,+,-*".*"
465;-6O*0,+".+*"8*1/A*"/5*(6-*/*",+5"/6(>0".Q6O*0,+".+75*"*,1+.*6(+,-*H".+55+"*,E861-8;--;8+"+".+5">6-8*(0_
,*0""
/;5-;865+%"
"
Tabella 22: Elenco delle valutazioni dei rischi climatici nel campo d'azione degli insediamenti, delle infrastrutture e
del patrimonio culturale.
Rischi climatici
Urgenza della necessità
di intervento
Grado di gravità
del rischio
Caratteristiche degli strumenti
politici
2021 -
2040
2041 -
2060
Adegua-
tezza degli
strumenti
politici
Orizzonte
tempo-
rale della
politica
Responsa-
bilità per i
rischi
1) Danni e deteriora-
mento di edifici residen-
ziali, strutture
produttive,
infrastrutture di tra-
sporto e spazi pubblici
Elevata
Necessità di ulteriori
misure e analisi
2 +++
2 ++
Media
A lungo
termine
Esclusiva
+ concor-
rente
2) Danni e riduzione della
qualità delle infra-
strutture e dei servizi sa-
nitari
Elevata
Necessità di ulteriori
misure e analisi
2,5 ++
2 ++
Media
A lungo
termine
Esclusiva
+ concor-
rente
3) Danni e deteriora-
mento delle infra-
strutture e dei servizi per
la comunità
Elevata
Necessità di ulteriori
misure e analisi
2 ++
2 ++
Media
A lungo
termine
Esclusiva
+ concor-
rente
4) Danni, perdita e
deterioramento del pa-
trimonio culturale
Elevata
Necessità di ulteriori
misure e analisi
2 ++
2 ++
Media
A medio
termine
Esclusiva
&$9"
"
5) Perdita di interesse
per il territorio e il
turismo
Media
Proseguimento delle
misure in corso e ulte-
riori analisi
3 ++
3 ++
Bassa
A medio
termine
Esclusiva
"
R"0"W
Z)(87'6++
b6"U6)+556"!#*55;1-86"56"465;-6O*0,+".+55Q;87+,O6".+556",+/+11*-N".*"*,-+84+,-0"+"5+"/0(>0,+,-*".*"465;-6_
O*0,+".+*"8*1/A*"/5*(6-*/*",+5"/6(>0".Q6O*0,+".+55Q+,+87*6%"
"
Tabella 23: elenco delle valutazioni dei rischi climatici nel campo d'azione dell’energia
Rischi climatici
Urgenza della neces-
sità di intervento
Grado di gravità
del rischio
Caratteristiche degli strumenti
politici
2021 -
2040
2041 -
2060
Adegua-
tezza degli
strumenti
politici
Oriz-
zonte
tempo-
rale
della
politica
Responsa-
bilità per i
rischi
1) Maggiore domanda
energetica e aumento del
picco di domanda
Urgente
Necessità di misure
urgenti e di ulteriori
analisi
2 +++
1,5 ++
Media
A medio
termine
Concor-
rente
2) Danni e minore
affidabilità delle
infrastrutture di trasporto
e stoccaggio dell’energia
Media
Proseguimento delle
misure in corso e
ulteriori analisi
3,5 ++
3 +
Bassa
A lungo
termine
Concor-
rente
3) Danni, carenze di
energia e potenza e inter-
ruzioni della sicurezza
dell’approvvigionamento
Media
Proseguimento delle
misure in corso e
ulteriori analisi
3 ++
3 ++
Media
A lungo
termine
Concor-
rente
"
"
R"0"Y
Z-.).%'6++
b6"U6)+556!$"*55;1-86"56"465;-6O*0,+".+55Q;87+,O6".+556",+/+11*-N".*"*,-+84+,-0"+"5+"/0(>0,+,-*".*"465;-6_
O*0,+".+*"8*1/A*"/5*(6-*/*",+5"/6(>0".Q6O*0,+".+55Q+/0,0(*6%"
"
Tabella 24: Elenco delle valutazioni dei rischi climatici nel campo d'azione dell’economia
Rischi climatici
Urgenza della neces-
sità di intervento
Grado di gravità
del rischio
Caratteristiche degli strumenti
politici
2021 -
2040
2041 -
2060
Adegua-
tezza degli
strumenti
politici
Orizzonte
tempo-
rale della
politica
Responsa-
bilità per i
rischi
1) Indebolimento della
produttività dei
dipendenti
Media
Proseguimento delle
misure in corso e
ulteriori analisi
3 ++
3 ++
Bassa
A breve
termine
Esclusiva
&$&"
"
2) Aumento del consumo
di energia e dei costi di
stoccaggio e trasporto
Media
Proseguimento delle
misure in corso e
ulteriori analisi
3 ++
3 ++
Bassa
A breve
termine
Concor-
rente
3) Danni a edifici, beni
immagazzinati, macchi-
nari o attrezzature
Elevata
Necessità di ulteriori
misure e analisi
3 ++
2 ++
Media
A lungo
termine
Esclusiva
4) Aumento dei conflitti
per l'uso dell'acqua
Elevata
Necessità di ulteriori
misure e analisi
2 ++
2 +++
Media
A lungo
termine
Esclusiva
+ concor-
rente
5) Problemi di approvvi-
gionamento e riduzione
della sicurezza delle for-
niture
Media
Proseguimento delle
misure in corso e
ulteriori analisi
3 +
3 +
Bassa
A lungo
termine
Esclusiva
6) Perdita di competiti-
vità delle imprese locali a
causa di rischi transitori
Ridotta
Osservazione di breve
durata
4 +
3 +
Media
A medio
termine
Esclusiva
+ concor-
rente
"
" "
&$!"
"
6.3
Sintesi
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*.80+5+--8*/6J%!
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-;--+"5+"68++"+"*,"-;--*"*"1+--08*%"@+8""?"8*1/A*"/A*64+"["1-6-6"*,.*4*.;6-6";,6",+/+11*-N".*"*,-+84+,-0"8,(+3%"
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(+.*0"-+8(*,+H"1050"&&".+*":B"8*1/A*"/A*64+"10,0"/5611*E*/6-*"/0(+"f(0.+86-*gH"*5"/A+"/0,E+8(6"56"465;-6_
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"
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["/5611*E*/6-6"/0(+"f)6116g%"@+8"*"8*1/A*"/0,";,Q,;,D3%3",+/+11*-N".*"*,-+84+,-0H"5Q*.0,+*-N".+75*"6--;65*"
1-8;(+,-*">05*-*/*"["6--+1-6-6"/0(+")6116">+8"&!"8*1/A*"+"(+.*6">+8"&2%"Z;+1-6"465;-6O*0,+"10--05*,+6"56"
(6,/6,O6".*"6.6--6(+,-0"65"/5*(6"*,"R;+1-+"68++%"
"
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8+$,!>,&!;,!8+1)&,H"8*/A*+.0,0"/*0["5;,7A*"-+(>*".*"8+65*OO6O*0,+".+55+"(*1;8+"0".+40,0"+11+8+">*6,*E*_
/6-+"(*1;8+"08*+,-6-+"6"/6()*6(+,-*"/5*(6-*/*"1;5"5;,70">+8*0.0"G/0(+",+5"/6(>0".+556"7+1-*0,+"E08+_
1-65+J%""
"
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"
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*(>6--*"/5*(6-*/*".*8+--*%""
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/0,01/+,O+"+"65")6110"5*4+550".*"/+8-+OO6"1;*"8*1/A*"*,"R;+1-0"1+--08+%"P,05-8+H"[">*`".*EE*/*5+"+EE+--;68+"
;,Q6,65*1*"+";,6"465;-6O*0,+"/0,/8+-6"*,"R;+1-0"6()*-0"6"/6;16".+556"/0(>5+11*-N".+75*"*(>6--*"/5*(6-*/*"
1;55Q+/0,0(*6%"
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E6--08*".*"8*1/A*0"/5*(6-*/*"+",0,"/5*(6-*/*"+"*5"8+56-*40"*(>6--0H"*"8*1/A*"6"/61/6-6"-86"*"1*1-+(*"+1>01-*%"
" "
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-;8*1(0J%"L*"/0,1+7;+,O6H"56"(6,;-+,O*0,+H"56">80-+O*0,+"+"5Q6.6--6(+,-0"65"/5*(6".+55+"E08+1-+"+"
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"
Figura 27: Panoramica sintetica sui rischi principali con necessità di intervento da alta a urgente, i fattori di rischio
climatici e non climatici e l'impatto e le cascate di rischio tra i sistemi esposti
"
Economia
Salute
Danni a edici,
merci
immagazzinate,
macchinari o
attrezzature
Aumento dei
conitti per
lʼuso
dell'acqua
Turismo
Danni alle
infrastrutture
turistiche
Carenza
dʼacqua per il
turismo estivo
(hotel,
wellness)
Aumento dovuto al
spostamento dei
ussi -->
Diminuzione della
qualità della vita
della popolazione
locale; riduzione
dell'atteggiamento
favorevole verso il
turismo
Diminuzione
dellʼattrattività del
turismo invernale
Agricoltura
Carenza d'acqua
per lʼirrigazione
Aumento dei costi
di produzione a
causa delle misure
di protezione attiva
Perdita di
produttività (pascoli,
colture permanenti,
seminativi) dovuta a
carenza idrica,
condizioni climatiche
estreme e parassiti
Gestione forestale
Danneggiamento e
perdita di vaste
aree forestali a
causa di
parassiti/malattie/
calo di vitalità
Danni alle foreste
dovuti a eventi
meteorologici
estremi più
frequenti e più gravi
Energia
Aumento della domanda di elettricità
e aumento dei picchi di domanda a
causa delle crescenti ondate di calore
Carenza dʼacqua per la produzione
di energia
Acqua + gestione dell'acqua
Danni agli ecosistemi e alle
infrastrutture dovuti alle
inondazioni
Impatto negativo sui sistemi
uviali a causa dell'aumento
del trasporto di sedimenti
Insediamenti + infrastrutture
Danni e degrado di edici e
infrastrutture (critiche)
Malattie causate
dalla riduzione della
qualità dell'acqua e
del cibo dovuta al
clima
Aumento delle
emergenze
dovute a
disastri naturali
esterni
Aumento
delle malattie
infettive
legato al clima
Conse-
guenze del
calore
sulla salute
Ecosistemi + Biodiversità
Minaccia alle
comunità di
specie viventi
in zone
umide, laghi e
corsi dʼacqua
a causa di
siccità e alte
temperature
Pericolo per
gli habitat e
le specie
dʼalta
montagna
Riduzione della
funzione di
protezione del
suolo e delle
strutture a causa
dei danni alle
foreste
Diusione
di specie
vegetali
invasive
Riduzione
della funzione
di stoccaggio
dellʼacqua e
della sua qualità
Ondate di calore e
periodi di siccità più
intensi, più lunghi e
più frequenti
Cambiamento climatico
generale: estati più calde
e secche; inverni più
umidi e miti.
Aumento dei
periodi di
carenza idrica
Rischi legati al clima
Impatti climatici diretti
Cambiamento climatico generale
Calore
Carenza d’acqua
Sistemi esposti
Vulnerabilità,
fattori di rischio non climatici
Rischio principale con
necessità di intervento
urgente alto
Pioggia intensa, grandine,
neve bagnata, tempeste,
smottamenti, movimenti
di massa, inondazioni
Impatti climatici esterni e
conseguenze di altre crisi sulle
catene di approvvigionamento
e sullʼeconomia globale
Mancanza di cooperazione
(orizzontale e verticale)
Mancanza di pratica e di
conoscenza sulla gestione
adattata al clima
Aumento delle persone esposte
a causa dellʼincremento del
turismo
Aumento delle disuguaglianze
sociali, gruppi vulnerabili,
invecchiamento della
popolazione
Aumento del consumo di suolo,
acqua e altre risorse naturali da
parte di insediamenti,
infrastrutture e attività
economiche (agricoltura,
turismo, energia, industria);
conitti dʼinteresse; maggiore
esposizione
Mancanza di capacità di
conservazione dellʼacqua nel
paesaggio (degrado delle zone
umide, mancanza di aree di
ritenzione e di boschi ripariali,
impermeabilizzazione)
Deterioramento, frammentazione
e perdita degli ecosistemi e delle
loro funzioni e servizi
Mancata considerazione
dellʼadattamento ai cambia-
menti climatici negli strumenti
politici (ad esempio leggi, piani
settoriali e di gestione).
Mancanza di obbligatorietà.
Mancanza di risorse
Fattori di rischio non
climatici
Aumento della vulnerabilità
e dellʼesposizione
Alluvioni
Movimenti di massa
e colate detritiche
Ritiro dei ghiacciai e delle nevi
Fattori di rischio climatici
Aumento dei pericoli
legati al clima
Precipitazioni abbondanti più
intense, grandine, neve
bagnata e temporali
Mancanza
dʼacqua per
l'innevamento
&$$"
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"
&$:"
"
7 Raccomandazioni
"
Autrici e autori: Michael Pörnbacher, Marc Zebisch, Lydia Pedoth, Giacomo Bertoldi, Andreas
Hilpold, Verena Kircher, Christian Hoffmann, Giulia Roveri, Philipp Corradini, Andrea Omizzolo,
Matteo Giacomo Prina, Jakob Bisignano
P5">8+1+,-+"/6>*-050"/0,/5;1*40".+1/8*4+"5+"1-86-+7*+".*"6.6--6(+,-0">8*08*-68*+"+"*,-+81+--08*65*"+"5+"86//0_
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" "
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"
7.1
Strategie di adattamento prioritarie e campi d’azione
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"
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"
12 Secondo la nuova legge europea sul ripristino della natura, tutti gli ecosistemi che necessitano di essere recuperati devono essere ripristinati entro il 2050. Gli
Stati membri sono tenuti a riportare almeno il 30 % degli habitat specificati nel regolamento (foreste, pascoli e zone umide, fiumi e laghi) da condizioni mediocri
a buone entro il 2030; entro il 2040, l'obiettivo è il 60 % e nel 2050 il 90 %.
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7.3
Raccomandazione per lo sviluppo di piani di adattamento
dettagliati
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7.4
Raccomandazioni specifiche per ogni settore
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Governance
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Garantire l’approvvigionamento idrico per uso umano
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Protezione e miglioramento della qualità dell’acqua nei corsi d’acqua
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cfr. "Tutela e ripristino degli ecosistemi" nel capitolo 7.1)
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Pacchetto di misure e raccomandazioni
Governance
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Ricerca e innovazione
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Miglioramento della base di dati e di conoscenze
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Mantenimento e miglioramento dello stato degli ecosistemi e delle specie nel contesto dei cambia-
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Aumento della resilienza degli habitat alpini
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Promozione della gestione e dell’uso sostenibile degli agroecosistemi
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Tutela e ripristino di torbiere e laghi
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Biodiversità nei corsi d’acqua
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Obiettivi generali
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Pacchetto di misure e raccomandazioni
Governance
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Ricerca e innovazione
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Miglioramento della base di dati e di conoscenze
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8+1*5*+,-*"65"/5*(6"G704+8,6,/+J"
Adattamento della zootecnia ai cambiamenti climatici
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Tutela e promozione della biodiversità negli agroecosistemi
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Obiettivi generali
(cfr. "Tutela e ripristino degli ecosistemi" nel capitolo 7.1)
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Pacchetto di misure e raccomandazioni
Governance
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Partecipazione, sensibilizzazione ed educazione
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Ricerca e innovazione
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Miglioramento della base di dati e di conoscenze
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Fattori di rischio biotici e abiotici
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Biodiversità e cambiamento delle tipologie forestali
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"
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Obiettivi generali
&% #$%,=&3*+'$,!(,+!&+1:A+!13$+%3&+!;,=3%+!3;!:;+83!$,;;3!>+3$+2+:3*+'$,!1,%%'&+3;,!,!+$%,&1,%%'&+3;,D"
6.6--6(+,-0".+5"R;6.80"7*;8*.*/0"+">8+16"*,"/0,1*.+86O*0,+".+*"8*1/A*"6()*+,-65*"+"/5*(6-*/*"*,"
-;--*"75*"6()*-*">05*-*/*%"
!% 7&,3&,!)$!1+1%,83!13$+%3&+'!&,1+;+,$%,D"7686,-*8+";,Q611*1-+,O6"16,*-68*6"/0(>5+-6"6.6--6,.0"
5Q*,E861-8;--;86"16,*-68*6"6*"8*1/A*"/5*(6-*/*".*8+--*"+"*,.*8+--*%"
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#% I'$+%'&3==+'<!&+:,&:3!,!(+D);=3*+'$,!1)+!&+1:A+!13$+%3&+!;,=3%+!3;!:;+83D"101-+,+8+"*,*O*6-*4+".*"
1+,1*)*5*OO6O*0,+">+8">8+4+,*8+"*"8*1/A*"16,*-68*"5+76-*"65"/5*(6"+"-;-+568+"56"165;-+">;))5*/6%"
"
Pacchetto di misure e raccomandazioni
Governance
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Garantire l’assistenza sanitaria
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Obiettivi generali
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Pacchetto di misure e raccomandazioni
Governance
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Partecipazione, sensibilizzazione ed educazione
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Ricerca e innovazione
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Miglioramento della base di dati e di conoscenze
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Resilienza dell’offerta turistica
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Obiettivi generali
(cfr. "Salvaguardia delle infrastrutture critiche" nel capitolo 7.1)
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Pacchetto di misure e raccomandazioni
Governance
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Ricerca e innovazione
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Uso del suolo e conflitti d’uso
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Beni culturali
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Pacchetto di misure e raccomandazioni
Governance
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Partecipazione, sensibilizzazione ed educazione
a P,*O*6-*4+".*"E08(6O*0,+"+"1+,1*)*5*OO6O*0,+"1;75*"+EE+--*".+5"/6()*6(+,-0"/5*(6-*/0"1;5"1*1-+(6""
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Ricerca e innovazione
a T*/+8/6">0-+,O*6-6"1;55+">011*)*5*"1*,+87*+"-86"(*-*76O*0,+"+"6.6--6(+,-0",+5"1+--08+"+,+87+-*/0"+"
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Miglioramento della base di dati e di conoscenze
a X65;-6O*0,+".+5"8*1/A*0"1>+/*E*/0"+"6,65*1*".+75*"+EE+--*"6"5;,70"-+8(*,+".+*"/6()*6(+,-*"/5*(6-*/*"
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Sistemi energetici resilienti
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Obiettivi generali
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Pacchetto di misure e raccomandazioni
Governance
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Partecipazione, sensibilizzazione ed educazione
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Obiettivi generali
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Pacchetto di misure e raccomandazioni (lungo il ciclo del rischio per una gestione integrale)
Prevenzione
C'D,&$3$:,!
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Preparazione e intervento
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Ricostruzione
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Gestione integrata delle alluvioni
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8 Autrici e autori del presente rapporto
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9 Ringraziamenti
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