The Status of Irish Salmon Stocks in 2025 with Catch Advice for 2026 PDF Free Download

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The Status of Irish Salmon Stocks in 2025 with Catch Advice for 2026 PDF Free Download

The Status of Irish Salmon Stocks in 2025 with Catch Advice for 2026 PDF free Download. Think more deeply and widely.

Report of the Technical Expert Group on Salmon
to the
North-South Standing Scientific Committee for
Inland Fisheries
The Status of Irish Salmon Stocks in 2025
with Catch Advice for 2026
December 2025
Citation
TEGOS (2025). The Status of Irish Salmon Stocks in 2025 with Catch Advice for 2026.
Report of the Technical Expert Group on Salmon (TEGOS) to the North-South Standing
Scientific Committee for Inland Fisheries, 65 pp.
1 Executive summary .......................................................................................................................... 4
2 Introduction ....................................................................................................................................... 6
2.1 Terms of reference for the operation of the Technical Expert Group on Salmon.......... 6
2.2 Advice process ..................................................................................................................... 7
2.3 NSSSCIF request for additional advice for 2026 ................................................................. 7
2.4 Overview of status and trends in Irish salmon stocks ......................................................... 7
3. Assessment methodology for 2026 catch advice ......................................................................... 9
3.1 Background ........................................................................................................................... 9
3.2 Data inputs .......................................................................................................................... 11
3.2.1 Fish counter and trap data ............................................................................................... 11
3.2.2 Rod catch data .................................................................................................................. 13
3.2.3 Rod exploitation rates ........................................................................................................ 14
3.2.4 Commercial catch data ................................................................................................... 17
3.2.5 Catchment-wide electro-fishing data ............................................................................. 17
3.3 Conservation limits .............................................................................................................. 17
3.4 Stock assessment and catch advice approach ............................................................. 18
3.4.1 Stock assessment and catch advice based on fish counters and traps ...................... 18
3.4.2 Stock assessment and catch advice based on angling catches and associated
exploitation rates ............................................................................................................... 19
3.4.3 Stock assessment model .................................................................................................... 19
3.4.4 Catch advice based on catchment-wide electrofishing (CWEF) ................................ 20
3.4.5 Catch advice thresholds for fisheries management advice ......................................... 20
3.5 Additional considerations .................................................................................................. 21
4. Status of stocks and precautionary catch advice for 2026 ........................................................ 22
4.1 River-specific catch advice .............................................................................................. 22
4.2 Mixed-stock catch advice ................................................................................................ 31
5. Recent trends in salmon stock status ............................................................................................ 34
5.1 Fish counter time series ...................................................................................................... 34
5.2 National returns and estimates of spawners relative to CL attainment ........................ 37
5.2.1 One-sea-winter returns and spawners .............................................................................. 37
5.2.2 Multi-sea-winter returns and spawners ............................................................................. 37
5.2.3 Stock forecast (2025 to 2028) ............................................................................................ 39
5.2.4 Additional considerations .................................................................................................. 39
6 Advice for stock rebuilding ............................................................................................................ 40
6.1 International guidance on stock rebuilding .................................................................... 40
6.2 Factors affecting stock rebuilding programmes for Irish salmon stocks ........................ 42
Marine survival ................................................................................................................ 42
Freshwater ...................................................................................................................... 45
7 Changes to assessments in future years ....................................................................................... 47
7.1 Exploitation rates ................................................................................................................ 47
7.2 River Lee, River Owenacurra and Cork Harbour ............................................................. 47
8 Conclusions ..................................................................................................................................... 48
9 References ....................................................................................................................................... 49
10 Appendices ..................................................................................................................................... 51
Appendix I. Members of the Technical Expert Group on Salmon (TEGOS) 2025/2026 .............. 51
Appendix II. River rod catch exploitation rates applied for 2026 catch advice ........................ 52
Appendix III. Summary results from the catchment-wide electro-fishing programme in 2025 . 58
Appendix IV. River / stock specific information used in the salmon catch advice process for
the 2026 advice and catch advice at various probabilities of attaining conservation
limit ...................................................................................................................................... 62
Appendix V. Salmon-designated rivers within Special Areas of Conservation (SAC) where
salmon have a qualifying interest and status relative to CL for the 2026 advice. ...... 63
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1 Executive summary
River-specific scientific catch advice on our salmon fisheries is provided for the forthcoming
season by the Technical Expert Group on Salmon (TEGOS) principally based on a forecast of
the abundance of salmon which will return to each river in that year, comparison of the
estimated returns to the river-specific conservation limit (CL), and determination of harvest of
salmon which could be made while allowing a high chance that the CL will be met. In simple
terms, the CL is the minimum number of returning salmon a river stock requires to ensure its
stock is healthy and above which a surplus may be identified for sustainable harvest. TEGOS
provide this advice to the North-South Standing Scientific Committee for Inland Fisheries
(NSSSCIF) who in turn advise Inland Fisheries Ireland (IFI) in this regard. IFI then formulate this
advice for the Department of Climate, Energy and the Environment who publish the relevant
draft regulations for public consultation. Once this process concludes, the regulations are
finalised and enacted in advance of the upcoming fishing season.
The TEGOS advice thresholds are as follows. Where stocks are exceeding their CL a
sustainable surplus (i.e. Total Allowable Catch) is advised for harvest. Where stocks are
assessed as being somewhat below their CL, or if surveys indicate fry numbers are good,
catch & release-only (C&R-only) angling is advised. Where a stock is well below its CL and /or
fry numbers are poor or there is insufficient data to assess stock status, then a stock is advised
to be closed to all fishing activity. TEGOS provide standard catch advice at a 75% chance
that a specific stock is likely to meet CL. For the 2026 advice, the NSSSCIF has requested that
TEGOS also provide catch advice at more conservative probabilities (chance) that the CL
will be attained (i.e. at 80%, 85%, 90%, 95% and 99%). As the chance of meeting CL increases,
the number of salmon that are advised for sustainable harvest lowers. This is because more
certainty is required that the CL will be met at the catch harvest advised. A further effect of
increasing the certainty that the CL will be met is that particular stocks may not have a
sustainable surplus for harvest than would otherwise be the case.
Overall, catch advice for the 2026 season is provided by TEGOS for 144 salmon stocks. For 16
of these river stocks, separate one-sea-winter (1SW) and two-sea-winter (2SW) stock
assessments are made and associated respective catch advice also issued. This is because
these river stocks have a relatively high proportion of multi-sea-winter (MSW). The number of
stocks in each catch advice category (i.e. surplus advised for harvest; advised for C&R-only
fishing; or advised closed to all fishing) including those assessed for CL attainment at various
probabilities of meeting CL is summarised in the following tables.
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Number of total or one-sea-winter stocks in each catch advice category at various probabilities of
meeting CL.
Advice 75% 80% 85% 90% 95% 99%
Surplus 41 35 29 23 15 11
C&R-only 29 31 33 36 38 36
Closed 74 78 82 85 91 97
Number of two-sea-winter stocks in each catch advice category at various probabilities of meeting CL.
Advice 75% 80% 85% 90% 95% 99%
Surplus 8 7 6 6 5 3
C&R-only 5 5 5 5 5 7
Closed 3 4 5 5 6 6
This report also outlines recent trends in Irish wild Atlantic salmon stocks and provides an
overview of the principal pressures that affect their continued sustainability.
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2 Introduction
The North-South Standing Scientific Committee for Inland Fisheries (NSSSCIF) was formed in
early 2018 to support the provision of scientific advice relating to the conservation and
sustainable exploitation of the inland fisheries resource with advice provided in response to
requests from the Department of Climate, Energy and the Environment (DCEE) and its
agency Inland Fisheries Ireland (IFI), the Department of Agriculture, Environment and Rural
Affairs (DAERA) from Northern Ireland and the Loughs Agency a North-South Implementation
Body. This group was also tasked with considering the co-ordination and effective use of
scientific resources for data collection and research projects linked to the above. The
NSSSCIF Terms of Reference (ToRs) facilitates the formation of Expert Groups drawn from
within the membership of the Committee, or additional invitees as required, to advise and
contribute on any particular species, aquatic habitat or biosecurity issues. To this end, the
NSSSCIF has established the Technical Expert Group on Salmon (TEGOS) to provide scientific
advice to guide the NSSSCIF and IFI management in decisions and policy development
relating to salmon. Members of the TEGOS 2025/2026 are provided in Appendix I.
2.1 Terms of reference for the operation of the Technical Expert Group on Salmon
This section outlines the ToRs for the operation of a Technical Expert Group on Salmon to
support the NSSSCIF with scientific advice on salmon stock status to support IFI with the
management of salmon stocks.
Purpose
The NSSSCIF requests the TEGOS to provide an annual report on the status of salmon stocks,
as outlined in Appendix A, for the purpose of advising the NSSSCIF on the sustainable
management of Irish salmon stocks. The NSSSCIF may also request the TEGOS to offer
scientific advice on the implications of proposed management decisions or policies on
salmon or seek advice on scientific matters in relation to salmon. All scientific advice
provided by TEGOS will be reviewed by the NSSSCIF and presented as independent advice.
Appendix A:
For the purpose of advising the NSSSCIF, the TEGOS shall estimate the overall abundance of
salmon returning to rivers in the State under the remit of IFI with reference to river-specific
conservations limits (CLs). The TEGOS shall carry out an assessment of salmon stocks using
internationally accepted best scientific practice which should demonstrate whether:
a. conservation limits are being or likely to be attained on an individual river basis; and
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b. favourable conservation status is being attained within Special Areas of Conservation
(SACs) and nationally as required under the Habitats Directive or otherwise.
The assessment shall take account of mixed-stock fishing on salmon stocks including the
potential effects on freshwater salmon populations from rivers other than those targeted. In
cases where stocks are determined to be below CLs, the TEGOS shall advise the level to
which catches should be reduced or other measures adopted on a fishery basis in order to
ensure a high degree of probability of meeting the CLs. The TEGOS shall respond to the
NSSSCIF relating to specific requests for scientific advice using best international practice. The
TEGOS shall provide the NSSSCIF with an independent annual report, which contains the
following information:
a. an annual overview of the status of Irish salmon stocks on an individual river basis;
b. catch advice with an assessment of risks associated with the objective of meeting
conservation limits in all rivers;
c. upon request an evaluation of the effects on salmon stocks and fisheries of
management measures or policies; and
d. upon request from the NSSSCIF, report on specific scientific advice relating to salmon
conservation.
2.2 Advice process
TEGOS provide this advice to the NSSSCIF who in turn advise IFI in this regard. IFI then
formulate this advice for the DCEE who publish the relevant draft regulations for public
consultation. Once this process concludes, the regulations are finalised and enacted in
advance of the upcoming fishing season.
2.3 NSSSCIF request for additional advice for 2026
TEGOS provide standard catch advice at a 75% probability that a specific stock is likely to
meet CL. For the 2026 advice, the NSSSCIF has requested that TEGOS also provide catch
advice at more conservative probabilities that the CL will be attained (i.e. at 80%, 85%, 90%,
95% and 99%). In effect, the more conservative the probability is of meeting CL, the lower the
catch option advised and the less likely a stock is deemed to achieve CL.
2.4 Overview of status and trends in Irish salmon stocks
The International Council of the Sea Working Group on North Atlantic Salmon (ICES WGNAS)
estimate that numbers of wild salmon returning to Ireland have progressively declined from
well over 1 million per annum for much of the 1970s to under 200,000 in recent years. Such
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declining trends are also evident in many jurisdictions across the North Atlantic basin (ICES
2025). This declining trend is also reflected in adult returns in Irish rivers monitored by fish
counters. The current stock assessment shows that only 28% of the 144 salmon designated
river stocks in Ireland are exceeding conservation limits at the 75% probability level. This
includes 53% (n=41) of the 77 salmon stocks where direct assessments could be made.
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3. Assessment methodology for 2026 catch advice
3.1 Background
River-specific scientific catch advice on our salmon fisheries is provided for the forthcoming
season principally based on a forecast of the abundance of salmon which will return to each
river in that year, comparison of the estimated returns to the river-specific conservation limit
(CL), and determination of harvest of salmon which could be made while allowing a high
probability that the CL will be met. There are 144 salmon-designated river stocks in Ireland
which are considered in this regard. For 16 of these river stocks separate one-sea-winter
(1SW) and two-sea-winter (2SW) stock assessments are made and associated respective
catch advice also issued. This is because these river stocks have a relatively high proportion
of multi-sea-winter (MSW). In addition to this, there are also a small number of mixed-stock
fisheries where common embayment catch advice is also provided.
Among the 144 designated salmon rivers are 67 river stocks where no or insufficient fish
counter or rod catch data are available in the most recent five-year period, making a direct
assessment difficult. Although the vast majority of these are insignificant fisheries, their stocks
are important as distinctive spawning populations, which must be maintained as constituent
elements of biodiversity, particularly when designated as a qualifying interest in an SAC
under the EU Habitats Directive. Because there are no recent means of direct salmon stock
assessment on these rivers, the TEGOS have not provided an assessment of CL attainment on
these rivers for the 2026 advice. The TEGOS advise that these rivers remain closed until
additional information is made available to assess stock status relative to their CLs or
catchment-wide electrofishing data indicates they can be opened for catch & release-only
fishing. In effect, this means that stocks in 77 salmon rivers are assessed for the 2026 advice.
The conservation limit (CL) applied by the TEGOS to establish the status of individual stocks is
the “maximum sustainable yield” (MSY) also known as the stock level that maximises the
long-term average surplus, as defined and used by the International Council for the
Exploration of the Sea (ICES). For the standard TEGOS advice, harvest options are identified
which provide a 0.75 probability (75% chance) of meeting and exceeding the CL. This follows
the approach used by ICES for the provision of salmon catch advice for West Greenland
(ICES 2022). Where no option provides a 75% chance of meeting the CL, there is no surplus of
fish forecast to support a fishing harvest.
It is important to note that CLs alone are not necessarily the minimum decision threshold that
can be applied as regards the sustainable management of salmon stocks (White et al. 2023).
This is highlighted in the NASCO Guidelines for the Management of Salmon Fisheries (NASCO
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2009) in the context of management targets (MTs) which should also be established at a
level above the CL to assist fishery managers in ensuring that there is a high probability of
stocks exceeding their CLs…; this probability level should be defined by managers (Section
2.4e); and The MT will therefore be greater than the CL with the margin between them at
least reflecting the risks, decided by managers, of stocks falling below the CL”. In this context,
for the 2026 advice, the NSSSCIF has requested that TEGOS also provide catch advice at
more conservative probabilities that the CL will be attained (i.e. at 80%, 85%, 90%, 95% and
99%). In any case, the use of the 75% probability as a threshold measure to assess river-
specific stock status remains an important baseline for national reporting to international
bodies such as ICES and NASCO.
Figure 1 Standard TEGOS scientific process from 2007 to present (note: for the 2026 advice,
additional catch options have been provided at more conservative probabilities than 75% (i.e. at
80%, 85%, 90%, 95% and 99%) that the CL will be attained.
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There was no change in principle to the methodological framework used to provide catch
advice for the 2026 season. A summary of the approach is shown in Figure 1. In-river or
estuarine measures of abundance are used (i.e. fish counter data and rod/net catch data)
to provide a primary measure of spawning stocks and attainment of CLs. With the operation
of fisheries restricted to estuaries and rivers since 2007, the assessment is focused primarily on
estimating individual river returns from counter data (if available), and catch data and
ranges of rod catch exploitation rates derived from observed values in Irish rivers.
3.2 Data inputs
A description of the data used for the stock assessment and associated catch advice for the
2026 fishery is provided in the relevant sections below. Every effort is made to obtain relevant
data and monitor the performance of stocks (attainment of CL) at the river level and
consequently to assess the status of individual riverine stocks. Several sources of information
are used to estimate stock size, evaluate stock status and formulate associated catch
advice for the upcoming year. These are outlined in the following sections.
3.2.1 Fish counter and trap data
Fish counter and trap data are provided by IFI, the Marine Institute (for Shramore/Burrishoole)
and some private fishery owners. In total, counts from 25 fish counters and traps were
available to assess stocks for the 2026 catch advice (Figure 2; Table 1). The following
approach has been adopted in interpreting the fish counter data and utilising these to
measure the attainment of CL:
Fish are initially separated into salmon and sea trout by signal strength generated by
the fish passing the counting electrodes and video images.
A process of validation of the numbers of salmon and sea trout is carried out during
the year whereby a proportion of the counter data (usually a minimum of 15%) is
examined in relation to contemporaneous video footage (resistivity counters) or self-
generated infra-red images (infra-red counters).
The initial numbers of salmon and sea trout are corrected after video verification and
this correction factor is applied to the remainder of the data.
It is assumed that all of the downstream counts up to the end of May represent out-
migrating kelts i.e. fish ascending the river in the previous year (except for the Corrib,
Erriff, Lee, Shannon and Erne counters where downstream counts are not available).
The downstream count from June to December is then subtracted from the upstream
count in the same period, correcting for fish counted upstream but which may then
come back downstream.
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The counter-estimated upstream run of fish is corrected to include salmon caught
and killed downstream of the counter and excludes salmon caught and killed above
the counter.
Raising factors may be applied to those counters where the possibility of fish moving
over the weir without being counted has been reported. The recorded count is raised
by a further percentage depending on observations. However, it is essential that
these raising factors are based on observations / assessments carried out by local
fisheries authorities or the agencies involved in salmon stock assessment. In general,
the Boyne, Corrib and Dee counts are raised by a factor of two to allow for the partial
nature of these counts.
Consideration is given to any missing data from intermittent periods of counter
downtime. In such cases, to account for this, data from partial monthly counts can be
raised accordingly or the monthly value can be assigned by using a mean value
taken from the respective month over the preceding five years of valid counts.
For the 2026 advice, sufficient information was not available for the Owenmore
counter in 2023 and Ballysadare counter in 2025. Therefore, the most recent
preceding five-year time series available were used in the assessment.
A comprehensive five-year counter time series is also not currently available for the
hydroelectric dam rivers to use in the stock assessment but it is anticipated to be
available in the coming years.
Table 1 Fish counters and traps used in the 2025 assessments for the 2026 catch advice.
Fisheries District River stock
Dundalk
Dee
Drogheda
Boyne
Dublin
Kerry
Blackwater
Limerick
Feale
Limerick
Fergus
Limerick
Maigue
Limerick
Mulkear
Galway
Corrib
Galway
Owenboliska
Connemara
Ballynahinch
Connemara
Cashla
Ballinakill
Bunowen
Ballinakill
Culfin
Ballinakill
Dawros
Ballinakill
Erriff (trap)
Ballinakill
Owenglin/Clifden
Bangor
Burrishoole (trap)
Bangor
Carrowmore
Bangor
Owenduff
Bangor
Owenmore
Sligo
Ballysadare
Ballyshannon
Eany
Ballyshannon
Eske
Letterkenny
Lackagh
13
Figure 2 Fish counter / trap data used in the stock assessment for the 2026 catch advice.
3.2.2 Rod catch data
Rod catch data used in the TEGOS stock assessment is primarily sourced from the Wild
Salmon and Sea Trout Tagging Scheme administered by IFI. The reported logbook rod
catches are adjusted to take into account the numbers of fish that have been caught by
anglers who have not returned their logbook. The adjustment follows Small (1991). In some
instances, directly reported rod catches from IFI Regional Fisheries officers or rod catch data
from managed fisheries (private owners who maintain reliable records), provided these have
been vouched for by IFI officers, are also used. Angling logbook returns had seen a steady
return rate of c. 70% up until 2017. However, there is a declining trend in logbook returns since
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2018 and these are just under 50% since 2023. Although accounted for by raising factors,
poor angling data can increase the uncertainty in the assessments made and advice
provided and ultimately may result in more conservative catch advice being provided to
fisheries managers to account for this. The angling catch in the most recent year of the stock
assessment is based on a Fisheries Inspector estimate.
3.2.3 Rod exploitation rates
A rod exploitation rate is applied to the rod catch to provide a stock abundance estimate in
a particular year. Rod exploitation rates derive from observed exploitation rate values from
fish counters or traps on Irish rivers and are supported by information from the scientific
literature and the National Coded-wire Tagging and Tag Recovery Programme. Exploitation
by angling on 1SW grilse stocks varies but is generally between 10% and 30% of the total river
stock available (Milner et al., 2001). These authors quote mean values of 19% for rivers in
England and Wales, while values for specific Irish 1SW salmon fisheries have been estimated
for the River Erriff at 19% between 1986 and 2000 (Gargan et al. 2001), and 15% for the
Burrishoole between 1970 and 2000 (Whelan et al. 2001). Estimates of angling exploitation on
multi-sea-winter stocks are generally higher than those reported for 1SW salmon (Solomon
and Potter 1992) and this has also been observed from Irish rivers with associated fish counter
data (Millane et al. 2017). In 2008, the Standing Scientific Committee on Salmon (SSCS)
evaluated all existing information on individual rod fisheries made available by IFI, including
field observations of fisheries which have known high or low fishing intensity, to derive more
precise estimates of the likely rod exploitation rate on a river-by-river basis. An extensive
review of salmon exploitation rates in Irish rivers (Millane et al., 2017) using rod catch and fish
counter data was published in 2017 but has not yet been incorporated into estimates of
adult salmon returns and further work in this regard is underway as more data is now
available to analyse.
Provided the catch in a river is known, in simple terms, the total stock can be estimated by
extrapolation using an appropriate exploitation rate in the fishery e.g.:
If the rod catch of salmon was 150 fish and the exploitation rate in the fishery was
10%, then the total stock of salmon available to generate this catch would be
estimated as the catch raised by the exploitation rate:
(Catch / Exploitation rate) * 100
In this case (150 / 10) * 100 = 1,500 salmon.
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For most rivers, the specific exploitation rates are not known and therefore a range of values
is applied within which the true value is expected to be. Furthermore, as specific rod
exploitation data for Irish rivers with fish counters is available, it has been possible to allocate
all rivers into specific groups representing heavily fished (higher exploitation rate) and
medium fished (medium exploitation rate) to lightly fished rivers (low exploitation rate) based
on field observations (Table 2). This restricts the overall range of values being used to a more
likely range rather than applying the entire range of values observed.
Table 2 Standard exploitation rates applied in the stock assessment.
Fishing intensity Total and 1SW (%) MSW (%)
Low
5 (1
12)
12 (6
27)
Medium
15 (7
35)
High
33 (10
50)
31(15
46)
Appendix II presents the exploitation rates used for each river for the 2026 advice. Angling
exploitation rates in general were reduced by 20% for year 2021 to account for a reduced
exploitation rate because of COVID-19 restrictions on movement unless Fisheries Inspector
reports indicated otherwise or if the rod catch was greater than twice the five-year average
then no such reductions were applied. In addition, the following decision framework was
used to assign angling exploitation rates to account for periods of drought affecting angling
in summer 2022:
No further reduction was made to rivers that already had a low exploitation rate
assigned.
No change to the MSW exploitation rates where MSW stocks were separately
assessed as these comprise the spring period pre-drought.
No changes were made where no indication was given by the Fisheries Inspectors
that angling catches were affected.
For rivers with a medium exploitation rate and where the Fisheries Inspectors
indicated that low water levels significantly affected angling, the rate was reduced
to either low or drought medium to reflect lower angling activity due to low water
levels as follows:
Munster Blackwater medium reduced to 80% of its standard value;
Easky and Drowes reduced to drought medium; and
Fane, Gweebarra, Leannan, Owenea & Owentocker, Suir and Tullaghobegly
reduced to low.
Further to this, the following decision framework was used to assign angling exploitation rates
to account for periods of drought affecting angling in early summer 2023 and for the
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subsequent prolonged flood conditions experienced in rivers throughout Ireland in July and
August 2023:
No change to the spring salmon exploitation rates where this stock component is
separately assessed as this comprised the spring period pre-summer drought and
prolonged flood conditions (unless specific information from Fisheries Inspectors on
very low angling effort was reported).
On total assessed stocks the standard medium and low exploitation rates were
generally reduced by 25% to account both for summer drought and exceptionally
high water throughout July and August which affected angling catchability (unless
specific information suggested otherwise).
For rivers ‘jointly assessed’ for 1SW and MSW components, a 25% reduction in
exploitation rates was generally applied as a significant proportion of the MSW can
return to such rivers throughout the season (unless specific information from Fisheries
Inspectors suggested that angling was not significantly impacted).
For 2024 angling catches, the standard exploitation rates were generally applied unless
Fisheries Inspectors provided specific information which suggested otherwise.
In general, the standard band of exploitation rates were applied to the 2025 catches as the
climatic conditions were not exceptional to warrant gross changes to the rates, unless
Fisheries Inspectors reported significant reductions in angling effort (e.g. Rivers Easky and
Moy). Although some periods of warm weather reduced angling effort (e.g. fishery closures)
these periods were generally brief (5-7 day periods). Official fishery closures mostly affected
counter rivers and a reduced exploitation rate was applied to the 1SW stock on the River
Moy to reflect lower angling pressure because of this. Bespoke exploitation rates were
derived for the Maine & Currane (switched from using counter data to rod catch data for
stock assessment purposes for this year) as adequate counter information was not available
to base stock assessments on. These were derived from the existing time series of rod catch
and counter data.
TEGOS gave detailed consideration to the potential effect of the fish kill on the Munster
Blackwater as regards assessment of its stock status and related provision of catch advice.
Information was received from IFI South Western River Basin District and IFI R&D officials on the
impacts to juvenile and adult salmon stocks. In relation to adult salmon, it was reported that
much of the returns are likely to have remained below the directly impacted stretch as water
conditions in advance of the fish kill were not conducive to large numbers of salmon moving
further up the river. In general, adult salmon mortalities reported were very low. Surveys post
17
the fish kill observed juvenile salmon at sites in the affected stretch. Salmon angling was
largely suspended in the period immediately after the fish kill. Subsequent angling activity
with reasonably good catches of salmon was reported in the catchment in general in late
August and September. It was noted that adult salmon returns in 2026 will not be directly
affected by the fish kill as they are currently at sea but there may be consequences in future
years for adult returns as the impacted juvenile cohorts complete their lifecycle. In any case,
lower future return estimates can already be incorporated into the standard stock
assessment process and associated provision of catch advice. Taking all this into account it
was decided not to make any adjustments to the standard approach used to assess this river
stock for the 2026 catch advice.
In general, it is important to note that 2025 angling catches are estimates and the
corresponding exploitation rates will further be reviewed for the 2027 advice once official
catches for 2025 are received.
3.2.4 Commercial catch data
Commercial catch data used in the TEGOS stock assessment is sourced from the Wild Salmon
and Sea Trout Tagging Scheme administered by IFI. Reporting rates are typically at 100% from
this fishery. These commercial fisheries typically operate in river estuaries using draft or snap-
nets. Commercial catches from the most recent five years of available data are used.
3.2.5 Catchment-wide electro-fishing data
Information on juvenile salmon fry abundance is sourced from the IFI catchment-wide
electro-fishing (CWEF) annual programme. Where no fish counter or angling catch data are
available to assess stock status in a river, this information is used as a stock status indicator.
The CWEF multi-annual mean used is calculated on the results of the most recent five annual
surveys (with a minimum requirement of three). A summary of the 2025 programme is
provided in Appendix III.
3.3 Conservation limits
A conservation limit (CL) is a reference point set at a spawning stock level that achieves
long-term maximum sustainable yield as regard harvest. In other words, CLs identify the
number of adult returns a river should have above which fish can be sustainably harvested
without affecting the long-term viability of that stock. For Irish river stocks, CLs have been
established using known stock-recruitment relationships from monitored index rivers and
applying this knowledge to data poor river stocks where this information is not available.
When assigning CLs to such rivers, the relative proportion of male to female salmon and 1SW
to MSW salmon; egg-weight relationships; the latitude of the river and the river habitat
18
wetted area accessible to salmon are taken into account. Full details on how CLs have
been established for Irish river stocks can be found in White et al. (2016) and in Appendices
IV, V and VI of SSCS (2017) and relevant literature referenced therein.
3.4 Stock assessment and catch advice approach
In line with international advice on salmon stocks, the TEGOS advise that the best way to
meet national and international objectives of conserving salmon stocks in all salmon rivers is
to primarily allow fisheries only in rivers or the estuary of that river, where there is a greater
probability of targeting only the stocks originating from these rivers (i.e. single stock fisheries).
The TEGOS also advise that fisheries should take place only on stocks that are shown to be
meeting their CL with the catch restricted to the estimated surplus above CL. This advice
follows from international best practice as advised by ICES and NASCO.
The main objective of the scientific advice therefore, is to ensure that there are sufficient
spawning salmon remaining after commercial and recreational fisheries to meet the required
CL for that river. In order to do this, the number of salmon which will be available before the
fishery takes place must be “forecast” for each river annually, based on the average returns
in recent years (usually the most recent five years provided sufficient information is available).
The information required for this forecast is derived from commercial catch data and from
extrapolation of rod catch information using exploitation rates or from estimates based on
fish counter information.
3.4.1 Stock assessment and catch advice based on fish counters and traps
For rivers where fish counter information is available, the most recent preceding five-year
period with available data is considered along with any commercial catch and angling
harvest below the counter if relevant. So for the 2026 advice, this information is collated from
the period 2021 to 2025. Angling harvest caught below the fish counter and commercial
catches are added to the counter returns in each corresponding year where there are such
fisheries. For the most recent year of the stock assessment, each of the last three months of
the fish counter data are estimated based on the mean run in that respective month for the
preceding five years of available counter data. In addition, the angling harvest in the most
recent year of the stock assessment is based on a Fisheries Inspector estimate. These
estimates are made because the assessment takes place in October each year for the
following year’s advice. However, these estimates are updated with actual data for that
year in following assessments. Where reliable estimates were available for both a counter or
trap and a rod catch, the values for the counter or trap are used.
19
3.4.2 Stock assessment and catch advice based on angling catches and associated
exploitation rates
For salmon rivers without fish counters TEGOS use the reported raised salmon rod catch on
each river in conjunction with a range of rod exploitation rates (i.e. the percentage of the
salmon run captured by anglers) and commercial catches if available to provide an
estimate of the total salmon run on each river. Rod catch for the most recent five years of
available data is used. So for the 2026 advice, this information is collated from the period
2021 to 2025. The angling catch in the most recent year of the stock assessment is based on
a Fisheries Inspector estimate. These estimates are made because the assessment takes
place in October each year for the following year’s advice, therefore, official catch data
are not yet available. However, these estimates are updated with actual data for that year
in following assessments.
For the assessment to be appropriate, a reasonably consistent level of fishing activity in the
river is necessary to provide a reliable data stream. For many small rivers, this is not the case,
and this approach is not used where the average reported raised rod catch over the
previous five years is ten salmon or less. In order to ensure a precautionary approach and for
biodiversity objectives, it is advised that such rivers remain closed until additional information
is made available to assess or indicate stock status.
3.4.3 Stock assessment model
The average number of salmon likely to return in the following year is forecast from the fish
counter and/or catch information described above using a Monte Carlo analysis with 75,000
iterations. For assessments based on fish counter data, uncertainty is incorporated by
forecasting such returns from a normal distribution with mean and standard deviation equal
to the average returns and standard deviation of returns from the most recent five years. For
assessments based on angling catches, the annual returns for each of the most recent five
years are forecast by raising the respective annual angling catch using an assigned annual
exploitation rate, with uncertainty incorporated by drawing the annual exploitation rates
from triangular distributions for each Monte Carlo iteration, and subsequently averaging the
resulting annual returns over the five years. Both approaches produces risk plots of the
predicted recruits, CL and resulting surplus/ deficits in relation to a range of catch options for
the river stock assessed. The estimated recruits (i.e. returns) must exceed the CL if there is to
be an allowable catch advised. If returns are likely to be less than the CL then harvest fishing
is not advised.
TEGOS provide standard catch advice at a 75% probability that a specific stock is likely to
meet CL. This follows the recommended procedure used by ICES for the provision of catch
20
advice for West Greenland (ICES 2022). Where there is no harvest option which will provide a
75% chance of meeting the CL, then there is no surplus of fish to support a harvest
(commercial or rod fishery). For the 2026 advice, the NSSSCIF has requested that TEGOS also
provide catch advice at more conservative probabilities that the CL will be attained (i.e. at
80%, 85%, 90%, 95% and 99%). In effect, the more conservative the probability is of meeting
CL, the lower the catch option advised and the less likely a stock is deemed to achieve CL. A
further effect of increasing the certainty that the CL will be met is that particular stocks may
not have a sustainable surplus for harvest than would otherwise be the case. Full details on
the stock assessment and catch advice process can be found in White et al. 2023.
White et al. (2023). Incorporating conservation limit variability and stock risk assessment in
precautionary salmon catch advice at the river scale. ICES of Marine Science, 80(4): 803–822
https://academic.oup.com/icesjms/article/80/4/803/7034404
River-specific data inputs and model outputs including information on the proportion of CL
attained and associated catch advice at the various probabilities of attaining CL are
provided in Appendix IV which accompanies this report.
3.4.4 Catch advice based on catchment-wide electrofishing (CWEF)
Where no fish counter or angling catch data are available to assess the stock status in a river,
catch advice is provided based on catchment-wide electrofishing (CWEF). If the mean
abundance of salmon fry is 17 fry per five-minute fishing, catch & release-only (C&R-only)
angling is advised by TEGOS. The CWEF mean is calculated on the results of the most recent
five such surveys (with a minimum of three). In general, river stocks under 65% of CL, may also
be advised to open for C&R-only angling based on the CWEF.
3.4.5 Catch advice thresholds for fisheries management advice
In summary, the TEGOS advice thresholds are as follows:
Where a stock is exceeding its CL a sustainable surplus1 is advised for harvest.
Where a stock is assessed as meeting between 65% to 99% of the CL, or if the CWEF
mean abundance of salmon fry is 17 fry per five-minute fishing, C&R-only angling is
advised.
Where a stock is meeting < 65% of CL and the CWEF mean abundance is < 17 or
there is insufficient data to assess stock status, then a stock is advised to be closed to
all fishing activity.
1 as regards fisheries management, this is typically termed ‘total allowable catch (TAC)’ or ‘quota’.
21
Where the proportion of estimated returning salmon relative to the CL > 3, estimates are
deemed to be above the threshold of estimate accuracy, and estimated returns are
capped at three times the (median) CL, giving twice the CL as the surplus.
3.5 Additional considerations
An objective of the catch advice is to ensure that harvest fisheries only take place on river
stocks meeting and exceeding CLs. The means to achieve this objective is to primarily allow
only harvest fisheries, which can specifically target single stocks, which are meeting their CLs.
Where a fishery comprises more than one stock, the risk analysis is based on the simultaneous
attainment of CL for all contributing stocks. For the 2026 advice, Killary Harbour (Bundorragha
and Erriff river stocks), the Owenmore Estuary (Carrowmore Lake and Owenmore River
stocks), Castlemaine Harbour area (Maine, Laune and Caragh river stocks) and the relatively
insignificant Tullaghan Ferry fishery (Carrowmore Lake, and Owenduff and Owenmore river
stocks) were considered as true potential mixed-stock fisheries.
Mixed-stock fisheries will always present greater risks towards achieving sustainable
exploitation compared to stocks that are exploited separately however, because of
uncertainties or variability in the proportion of the catch originating from the weaker of the
stocks. This is particularly true when there are large differences in the relative numbers of fish
in each stock as it may be difficult to estimate the impacts on the smaller stocks. Therefore,
to avoid intercepting fish from other rivers, particularly those which are not meeting CLs, the
general advice is to operate all fisheries within the estuarine zone of the river stock for which
the catch advice is being given and not a common bay where several river stocks may be
present. Careful consideration must be made of local topography, fishing practices, number
of contributing stocks and their status and the ability to discriminate the contributing stocks
and manage the fishery effectively.
In a number of rivers the CL will be achieved by the contributions of both 1SW (grilse) and
2SW (two-sea-winter) / multi-sea-winter (MSW) fish. There is conservation of biodiversity and
fisheries development value in identifying and protecting both life history types. It is important
for fisheries management to be able to determine how much of the CL is likely to be met by
either 1SW or 2SW/MSW fish and to regulate fisheries for both components separately. As
such, advice has been provided on 1SW and 2SW separately where a significant early run
component has been identified and can be managed separately on the assumption that all
fish counted or caught before 31st May are considered to be 2SW/MSW fish (except for the
Slaney where data are available on the typical proportions of 1SW and 2SW/MSW salmon
encountered through the run).
22
4. Status of stocks and precautionary catch advice for 2026
4.1 River-specific catch advice
In general, the TEGOS advises that:
harvest of salmon should only be allowed on stocks from rivers where a surplus above
their CL is identified and that no more than this surplus should be harvested. In some
rivers where the available surplus is minor and impractical to manage, management
may decide to operate such fisheries as C&R-only.
harvest fisheries should not take place on stocks from rivers without an identifiable
surplus above the CL. C&R-only angling is advised on rivers where stocks under CL are
meeting at least 65% of CL or the juvenile fry index is at least 17.
no harvest fisheries should take place on those stocks from 67 rivers where insufficient
fish counter or rod catch data is available to assess salmon stock status. The TEGOS
advise that these rivers remain closed to harvest until such time as additional
information becomes available to assess the status of these stocks relative to their
CLs.
Overall, catch advice for the 2026 season is provided for 144 salmon stocks. In addition,
separate assessments are made for 16 rivers which are considered to have a significant 2SW
stock component. A summary of the number of stocks in each catch advice category is
presented below for:
total or one-sea-winter (1SW) stocks including those assessed for CL attainment at
various probabilities of exceeding CL (Table 3 and Figure 3); and
for two-sea-winter (2SW) stocks including those assessed for CL attainment at various
probabilities of exceeding CL (Table 4 and Figure 4).
Table 3 Number of total or one-sea-winter stocks in each catch advice category including those
assessed for CL attainment at various probabilities of exceeding CL.
Advice 75% 80% 85% 90% 95% 99%
Surplus 41 35 29 23 15 11
C&R 29 31 33 36 38 36
Close 74 78 82 85 91 97
Table 4 Number of two-sea-winter stocks in each catch advice category including those assessed for
CL attainment at various probabilities of exceeding CL.
Advice 75% 80% 85% 90% 95% 99%
Surplus 8 7 6 6 5 3
C&R 5 5 5 5 5 7
Close 3 4 5 5 6 6
23
Figure 3 Number of total or one-sea-winter stocks in each catch advice category including those
assessed for CL attainment at various probabilities of exceeding CL.
Figure 4 Number of two-sea-winter stocks in each catch advice category including those assessed for
CL attainment at various probabilities of exceeding CL.
A summary of the total or one-sea-winter (1SW) stock catch advice provided between 2007
and 2026 at the 75% probability of achieving CL is provided in Figure 5. Since 2022, this shows
a moderate decline in the number of river stocks above CL with an advised surplus as well as
those stocks closed to all fishing; and a moderate increase in the number of river stocks
under CL that are meeting at least 65% of CL which are advised open for C&R-only fishing.
24
Figure 5 Summary of status of total or one-sea-winter stocks and scientific catch advice provided
between 2007 and 2026 including those stocks assessed at the 75% probability of achieving
conservation limit.
In general, it is clear that the overall proportion of Irish rivers with a good population status is
moderate. Of the 144 salmon designated rivers, there are currently 62 which are in or partially
intersect with SACs where salmon have a qualifying interest under the EU Habitats Directive,
48 of which are assessed for CL attainment. Of these, only 26 are attaining CL at the 75%
probability (Appendix V). In addition, there are stocks in four major rivers used for hydro-
power which are highly likely to be well below their CLs above the impoundments i.e. Upper
Liffey (Dublin), Upper Lee (Cork), Upper Shannon (Limerick) and the River Erne. However,
insufficient data is available to directly assess their stock status. Following the scientific advice
already provided for other rivers, there should be no harvest fisheries on wild salmon in these
specific rivers until such time as significant improvements to the generation of self-sustaining
runs of salmon above these impoundments has been made within the context of agreed
restoration plans.
A summary of the river-specific catch advice for the 2026 season at various probabilities of
attaining CL is presented in Table 5. More detailed catch advice data including catch
options at various probabilities of attaining CL where relevant are provided in Appendix IV
which accompanies this report.
25
Table 5 River-specific catch advice for the 2026 season including for assessed stocks at various probability categories of attaining CL. Mean
CWEF value is also provided.
District River Stock Assessed CWEF 75% 80% 85% 90% 95% 99%
Dundalk
Castletown
Total
N
11
Close
Close
Close
Close
Close
Close
Dundalk
Dee
1SW
Y
12.9
Close
Close
Close
Close
Close
Close
Dundalk
Dee
2SW
Y
12.9
Close
Close
Close
Close
Close
Close
Dundalk
Fane
Total
Y
14.1
C&R
C&R
Close
Close
Close
Close
Dundalk
Flurry
Total
N
9.32
Close
Close
Close
Close
Close
Close
Dundalk
Glyde
Total
Y
13.4
C&R
Close
Close
Close
Close
Close
Drogheda
Boyne
Total
Y
13.49
Close
Close
Close
Close
Close
Close
Dublin
Dargle
Total
N
4.37
Close
Close
Close
Close
Close
Close
Dublin
Lower Liffey Inc Rye
Total
Y
13.91
Close
Close
Close
Close
Close
Close
Dublin
Upper Liffey US Lexlip
Total
N
8.45
Close
Close
Close
Close
Close
Close
Dublin
Vartry
Total
N
4.91
Close
Close
Close
Close
Close
Close
Wexford
Avoca
Total
N
5.27
Close
Close
Close
Close
Close
Close
Wexford
Owenavorragh
Total
N
3.62
Close
Close
Close
Close
Close
Close
Wexford
Slaney
1SW
Y
14.9
4
C&R
C&R
Close
Close
Close
Close
Wexford
Slaney
2SW
Y
14.9
4
Close
Close
Close
Close
Close
Close
Waterford
Barrow and Pollmounty
Total
Y
22.3
C&R
C&R
C&R
C&R
C&R
C&R
Waterford
Colligan
Total
N
10.47
Close
Close
Close
Close
Close
Close
Waterford
Corock R
Total
N
9.24
Close
Close
Close
Close
Close
Close
Waterford
Mahon
Total
N
6.31
Close
Close
Close
Close
Close
Close
Waterford
Nore
Total
Y
15.35
C&R
C&R
Close
Close
Close
Close
Waterford
Owenduff
Total
N
6.57
Close
Close
Close
Close
Close
Close
Waterford
Suir, Clodiagh, Lingaun, Blackwater
Total
Y
14.63
C&R
Close
Close
Close
Close
Close
Waterford
Tay
Total
N
6.81
Close
Close
Close
Close
Close
Close
Lismore
Blackwater, Glenshelane, Finisk
Total
Y
14.9
Surplus
Surplus
C&R
C&R
C&R
C&R
Lismore
Bride
Total
Y
19.4
C&R
C&R
C&R
C&R
C&R
C&R
Lismore
Lickey
Total
N
13.38
Close
Close
Close
Close
Close
Close
Lismore
Tourig
Total
N
14.14
Close
Close
Close
Close
Close
Close
Lismore
Womanagh
Total
N
5.77
Close
Close
Close
Close
Close
Close
Cork
Adrigole
Total
N
15.4
Close
Close
Close
Close
Close
Close
Cork
Argideen
Total
Y
20.2
C&R
C&R
C&R
C&R
C&R
C&R
26
District River Stock Assessed CWEF 75% 80% 85% 90% 95% 99%
Cork
Bandon
Total
Y
21.25
Surplus
Surplus
Surplus
Surplus
Surplus
Surplus
Cork
Coomhola
Total
Y
33.1
Surplus
C&R
C&R
C&R
C&R
C&R
Cork
Glengarriff
Total
Y
7.9
Surplus
Surplus
Surplus
Surplus
Surplus
Surplus
Cork
Ilen
1SW
Y
NA
Surplus
Surplus
Surplus
Surplus
C&R
C&R
Cork
Ilen
2SW
Y
NA
Surplus
Surplus
Surplus
Surplus
Surplus
Surplus
Cork
Lower Lee
Total
Y
15.8
Surplus
Surplus
Surplus
Surplus
Surplus
C&R
Cork
Mealagh
Total
Y
18.25
Surplus
Surplus
Surplus
Surplus
Surplus
Surplus
Cork
Owenacurra
Total
N
17.7
C&R
C&R
C&R
C&R
C&R
C&R
Cork
Owvane
Total
Y
NA
Surplus
Surplus
Surplus
C&R
C&R
Close
Cork
Upper Lee
Total
N
0.5
Close
Close
Close
Close
Close
Close
Kerry
Behy
Total
N
7.17
Close
Close
Close
Close
Close
Close
Kerry
Blackwater
Total
Y
20.9
Surplus
Surplus
Surplus
C&R
C&R
C&R
Kerry
Caragh
1SW
Y
NA
Surplus
Surplus
Surplus
Surplus
Surplus
Surplus
Kerry
Caragh
2SW
Y
NA
Surplus
Surplus
Surplus
Surplus
C&R
C&R
Kerry
Carhan
Total
N
9.91
Close
Close
Close
Close
Close
Close
Kerry
Cloonee
Total
N
29.5
C&R
C&R
C&R
C&R
C&R
C&R
Kerry
Croanshagh
Total
Y
31
C&R
C&R
C&R
C&R
C&R
C&R
Kerry
Emlagh
Total
N
5.1
Close
Close
Close
Close
Close
Close
Kerry
Emlaghmore
Total
N
7.12
Close
Close
Close
Close
Close
Close
Kerry
Feohanagh
Total
N
11.46
Close
Close
Close
Close
Close
Close
Kerry
Ferta
Total
Y
13.06
Surplus
Surplus
Surplus
Surplus
C&R
C&R
Kerry
Finnihy
Total
N
3
Close
Close
Close
Close
Close
Close
Kerry
Inney
Total
Y
22.1
C&R
C&R
C&R
C&R
C&R
C&R
Kerry
Kealincha
Total
N
0
Close
Close
Close
Close
Close
Close
Kerry
Laune and Cottoners
1SW
Y
21.6
Surplus
Surplus
Surplus
Surplus
Surplus
Surplus
Kerry
Laune and Cottoners
2SW
Y
21.6
Surplus
Surplus
Surplus
Surplus
Surplus
Surplus
Kerry
Lee
Total
N
0.52
Close
Close
Close
Close
Close
Close
Kerry
Lough Fada
Total
N
1.23
Close
Close
Close
Close
Close
Close
Kerry
Maine
Total
Y
34.1
Surplus
Surplus
Surplus
C&R
C&R
C&R
Kerry
Milltown
Total
N
14.2
Close
Close
Close
Close
Close
Close
Kerry
Owenascaul
Total
N
13.9
Close
Close
Close
Close
Close
Close
27
District River Stock Assessed CWEF 75% 80% 85% 90% 95% 99%
Kerry
Owenmore
Total
Y
26.9
Surplus
Surplus
Surplus
Surplus
Surplus
Surplus
Kerry
Owenreagh
Total
N
7.98
Close
Close
Close
Close
Close
Close
Kerry
Owenshagh
Total
N
13.4
Close
Close
Close
Close
Close
Close
Kerry
Roughty
Total
Y
22.5
Surplus
Surplus
Surplus
C&R
C&R
C&R
Kerry
Sheen
Total
Y
34.07
Surplus
Surplus
C&R
C&R
C&R
C&R
Kerry
Sneem
Total
Y
NA
Surplus
Surplus
Surplus
Surplus
C&R
C&R
Kerry
Waterville
1SW
Y
24.5
Surplus
Surplus
Surplus
Surplus
Surplus
Surplus
Kerry
Waterville
2SW
Y
24.5
Surplus
Surplus
Surplus
Surplus
Surplus
Surplus
Limerick
Annageeragh
Total
N
3.41
Close
Close
Close
Close
Close
Close
Limerick
Aughyvackeen
Total
N
1.75
Close
Close
Close
Close
Close
Close
Limerick
Deel
Total
N
1.14
Close
Close
Close
Close
Close
Close
Limerick
Doonbeg
Total
Y
14.
79
C&R
C&R
C&R
Close
Close
Close
Limerick
Feale, Galey and Brick
1SW
Y
24.1
Surplus
C&R
C&R
C&R
C&R
C&R
Limerick
Feale, Galey and Brick
2SW
Y
24.1
Surplus
C&R
C&R
C&R
C&R
C&R
Limerick
Fergus
Total
Y
6.9
Close
Close
Close
Close
Close
Close
Limerick
Inagh
Total
N
4.87
Close
Close
Close
Close
Close
Close
Limerick
Maigue
Total
Y
11.4
Close
Close
Close
Close
Close
Close
Limerick
Mulkear
Total
Y
23.4
C&R
C&R
C&R
C&R
C&R
C&R
Limerick
Owenagarney
Total
N
8.42
Close
Close
Close
Close
Close
Close
Limerick
Shannon (Lower)
Total
N
32.3
C&R
C&R
C&R
C&R
C&R
C&R
Limerick
Shannon (Upper)
Total
N
NA
Close
Close
Close
Close
Close
Close
Limerick
Skivaleen
Total
N
9.95
Close
Close
Close
Close
Close
Close
Galway
Aille (Galway)
Total
N
0
Close
Close
Close
Close
Close
Close
Galway
Clarinbridge
Total
N
6.67
Close
Close
Close
Close
Close
Close
Galway
Corrib
Total
Y
NA
Surplus
Surplus
C&R
C&R
C&R
Close
Galway
Kilcolgan/Dunkellin
Total
N
6.99
Close
Close
Close
Close
Close
Close
Galway
Knock
Total
N
14.73
Close
Close
Close
Close
Close
Close
Galway
Owenboliska R (Spiddal)
Total
Y
5.6
Close
Close
Close
Close
Close
Close
Connemara
Ballynahinch
Total
Y
14.8
Surplus
C&R
C&R
C&R
Close
Close
Connemara
Cashla
Total
Y
10.8
Surplus
Surplus
Surplus
Surplus
C&R
Close
Connemara
L. Na Furnace
Total
N
0
Close
Close
Close
Close
Close
Close
28
District River Stock Assessed CWEF 75% 80% 85% 90% 95% 99%
Connemara
Screebe
Total
Y
11.5
C&R
C&R
Close
Close
Close
Close
Ballinakill
Bundorragha
1SW
Y
21.99
Surplus
Surplus
Surplus
Surplus
Surplus
Surplus
Ballinakill
Bundorragha
2SW
Y
21.99
C&R
C&R
C&R
C&R
C&R
C&R
Ballinakill
Bunowen
Total
Y
13.6
Surplus
Surplus
C&R
C&R
Close
Close
Ballinakill
Carrownisky
Total
Y
20.2
Surplus
Surplus
Surplus
C&R
C&R
C&R
Ballinakill
Culfin
Total
Y
30.8
Surplus
Surplus
Surplus
Surplus
Surplus
Surplus
Ballinakill
Dawros
Total
Y
NA
Surplus
Surplus
Surplus
Surplus
Surplus
C
lose
Ballinakill
Erriff
Total
Y
29.86
C&R
C&R
C&R
C&R
C&R
C&R
Ballinakill
Owenglin
Total
Y
20.9
Surplus
Surplus
Surplus
Surplus
C&R
C&R
Ballinakill
Owenwee (Belclare)
Total
Y
9.3
C&R
C&R
C&R
C&R
Close
Close
Bangor
Carrowmore
1SW
Y
25.8
Surplus
Surplus
Surplus
Surplus
Surplus
C&R
Bangor
Carrowmore
2SW
Y
25.8
Surplus
Surplus
Surplus
Surplus
Surplus
C&R
Bangor
Glenamoy
Total
Y
16.48
C&R
Close
Close
Close
Close
Close
Bangor
Muingnabo
Total
N
1.15
Close
Close
Close
Close
Close
Close
Bangor
Newport
1SW
Y
14.1
Close
Close
Close
Close
Close
Close
Bangor
Newport
2SW
Y
14.1
C&R
C&R
Close
Close
Close
Close
Bangor
Owenduff (Glenamong)
1SW
Y
10.2
Surplus
C&R
C&R
C&R
Close
Close
Bangor
Owenduff (Glenamong)
2SW
Y
10.2
Surplus
Surplus
C&R
C&R
Close
Close
Bangor
Owengarve
Total
N
5.98
Close
Close
Close
Close
Close
Close
Bangor
Owenmore
Total
Y
27.7
Surplus
Surplus
C&R
C&R
C&R
C&R
Bangor
Srahmore (Burrishoole)
Total
Y
4.3
Close
Close
Close
Close
Close
Close
Ballina
Ballinglen
Total
N
7.55
Close
Close
Close
Close
Close
Close
Ballina
Brusna
Total
N
9.79
Close
Close
Close
Close
Close
Close
Ballina
Cloonaghmore
Total
N
12.3
Close
Close
Close
Close
Close
Close
Ballina
Easky
Total
Y
7.13
C&R
C&R
C&R
C&R
Close
Close
Ballina
Leaffony
Total
N
3.86
Close
Close
Close
Close
Close
Close
Ballina
Moy
Total
Y
NA
Surplus
Surplus
Surplus
Surplus
C&R
C&R
Sligo
Ballysadare
Total
Y
NA
Surplus
Surplus
Surplus
C&R
C&R
C&R
Sligo
Drumcliff
Total
Y
17.7
Surplus
Surplus
Surplus
Surplus
C&R
C&R
Sligo
Garvogue (Bonnet)
1SW
Y
15.53
C&R
Close
Close
Close
Close
Close
Sligo
Garvogue (Bonnet)
2SW
Y
15.53
C&R
Close
Close
Close
Close
Close
29
District River Stock Assessed CWEF 75% 80% 85% 90% 95% 99%
Sligo
Grange
Total
N
4.42
Close
Close
Close
Close
Close
Close
Ballyshannon
Abbey
Total
N
NA
Close
Close
Close
Close
Close
Close
Ballyshannon
Ballintra (Murvagh R).
Total
N
12.72
Close
Close
Close
Close
Close
Close
Ballyshannon
Bungosteen
Total
Y
10.6
Close
Close
Close
Close
Close
Close
Ballyshannon
Drowes
1SW
Y
NA
Surplus
Surplus
Surplus
Surplus
Surplus
Surplus
Ballyshannon
Drowes
2SW
Y
NA
Surplus
Surplus
Surplus
Surplus
Surplus
C&R
Ballyshannon
Duff
Total
Y
16.3
Close
Close
Close
Close
Close
Close
Ballyshannon
Eany
Total
Y
19.6
C&R
C&R
C&R
C&R
C&R
C&R
Ballyshannon
Erne
Total
N
0.2
Close
Close
Close
Close
Close
Close
Ballyshannon
Eske
Total
Y
14
C&R
C&R
C&R
Close
Close
Close
Ballyshannon
Glen
Total
Y
15.82
Surplus
C&R
C&R
C&R
C&R
Close
Ballyshannon
Laghy
Total
N
9.8
Close
Close
Close
Close
Close
Close
Ballyshannon
Oily
Total
Y
21.1
C&R
C&R
C&R
C&R
C&R
C&R
Ballyshannon
Owenwee (Yellow R)
Total
Y
13.24
Surplus
Surplus
Surplus
Surplus
Surplus
Surplus
Letterkenny
Bracky
Total
N
11.24
Close
Close
Close
Close
Close
Close
Letterkenny
Clady
Total
Y
24.5
C&R
C&R
C&R
C&R
C&R
C&R
Letterkenny
Clonmany
Total
N
9.81
Close
Close
Close
Close
Close
Close
Letterkenny
Crana
Total
Y
22.12
C&R
C&R
C&R
C&R
C&R
C&R
Letterkenny
Culoort
Total
N
0
Close
Close
Close
Close
Close
Close
Letterkenny
Donagh
Total
N
3.13
Close
Close
Close
Close
Close
Close
Letterkenny
Glenagannon
Total
N
5.82
Close
Close
Close
Close
Close
Close
Letterkenny
Glenna
Total
N
5.6
Close
Close
Close
Close
Close
Close
Letterkenny
Gweebarra
1SW
Y
17.8
Surplus
Surplus
Surplus
Surplus
Surplus
C&R
Letterkenny
Gweebarra
2SW
Y
17.8
C&R
C&R
C&R
C&R
C&R
C&R
Letterkenny
Gweedore (Crolly R.)
Total
Y
13.7
Surplus
Surplus
Surplus
Surplus
C&R
C&R
Letterkenny
Isle (Burn)
Total
N
1.06
Close
Close
Close
Close
Close
Close
Letterkenny
Lackagh
1SW
Y
21.1
C&R
C&R
C&R
C&R
C&R
C&R
Letterkenny
Lackagh
2SW
Y
21.1
C&R
C&R
C&R
C&R
C&R
C&R
Letterkenny
Leannan
1SW
Y
15.57
C&R
C&R
C&R
Close
Close
Close
Letterkenny
Leannan
2SW
Y
15.57
Close
Close
Close
Close
Close
Close
Letterkenny
Mill
Total
N
0
Close
Close
Close
Close
Close
Close
30
District River Stock Assessed CWEF 75% 80% 85% 90% 95% 99%
Letterkenny
Owenamarve
Total
N
6.67
Close
Close
Close
Close
Close
Close
Letterkenny
Owenea and Owentocker
Total
Y
38.6
Surplus
Surplus
C&R
C&R
C&R
C&R
Letterkenny
Ray
Total
Y
11.9
C&R
C&R
C&R
C&R
Close
Close
Letterkenny
Straid
Total
N
0.05
Close
Close
Close
Close
Close
Close
Letterkenny
Swilly
Total
N
11.74
Close
Close
Close
Close
Close
Close
Letterkenny
Tullaghobegly
Total
Y
7.94
Surplus
C&R
C&R
C&R
C&R
Close
NA= no data available.
31
4.2 Mixed-stock catch advice
Owing to the different status of individual stocks within the stock complex, mixed-stock
fisheries present particular threats to stock status (ICES 2019). The TEGOS strongly advise that
all fisheries should operate only on the target stock as close to the river mouth as possible or
within the river to achieve this. Even where all exploited stocks in a common estuary are
meeting their CLs, mixed-stock fisheries introduce greater uncertainty into predicting the
effects of management measures and pose a greater threat to small stocks or populations,
especially if these are of low relative productivity and/or subject to high exploitation. As the
number of stocks (or populations) increases, the number of fish that must escape from such
fisheries in order to meet CLs must also increase. When the number of populations is too
large, it may be impossible to ensure a high probability of the simultaneous achievement of
spawner requirements in each individual unit.
The objective of the catch advice is to ensure that harvest fisheries operate only in estuaries
where stocks in contributing systems meet and exceed CLs. There are potentially three
primary mixed-stock commercial fisheries operating in estuaries, namely, Castlemaine (Kerry);
Killary (Ballinakill); and Owenmore Estuary (Bangor). In addition, a minor mixed-stock fishery
may potentially operate in Tullaghan Ferry (Bangor).
Overall, catch advice for the 2026 season is provided for three primary potential mixed-stock
salmon fisheries. This is presented in Table 6 and Table 7 below.
Table 6 Catch advice for each of the three primary potential mixed-stock fisheries at various
probabilities of attaining CL.
Advice 75% 80% 85% 90% 95% 99%
Castlemaine Harbour Surplus Surplus Surplus* Close** Close** Close**
Killary Close*** Close*** Close Close Close Close
Owenmore Estuary Surplus Close Close Close Close Close
* contributary River Maine only has a surplus of 8.
**contributary River Maine is under CL;
***contributary River Erriff is under CL;
Table 7 Advised harvest surplus for the three primary potential mixed-stock fisheries at various
probabilities of attaining CL for distribution amongst the relevant contributory commercial and angling
fisheries.
Advice 75% 80% 85% 90% 95% 99%
Castlemaine Harbour 3034 2847 2627 - - -
Killary - - - - - -
Owenmore Estuary 185 - - - - -
32
In general, the TEGOS advises that:
harvest of salmon should only be allowed where a surplus above their CL is identified
and that no more than this surplus should be harvested. In some rivers where the
available surplus is minor and impractical to manage, management may decide to
operate such fisheries as C&R-only.
If a contributory river stock has no advised surplus, then the mixed-stock fisheries
should not operate.
If the mixed-stock common embayment fishery is operated then the advised
surpluses for the individual contributary river stocks are disregarded and the following
should apply:
o The Common Embayment Castlemaine advised surplus (if available) is applied to
the Maine, Caragh 1SW and Laune 1SW fisheries and Castlemaine when the
Castlemaine commercial fishery is operated. It can be distributed among the
following fisheries: Castlemaine, Laune, Caragh and Maine commercial fisheries;
total rods on the Maine; and 1SW rods on the Laune and Caragh. The MSW advice
for rod fisheries in the Caragh and Laune is provided separately.
o The Common Embayment Killary advised surplus (if available) is applied to the
Killary, Bundorragha 1SW and Erriff fisheries when the Killary commercial fishery is
operated. It can be distributed among the following fisheries: Killary commercial
fishery; total rods on the Erriff; and 1SW rods on the Bundorragha. The MSW advice
for the rod fishery in the Bundorragha is provided separately.
o The Common Estuary Owenmore advised surplus (if available) is applied to the
Owenmore Estuary, Tullaghan Ferry (in part if also operating), Carrowmore 1SW
and Owenmore fisheries when the Owenmore Estuary commercial fishery is
operated. It can be distributed among the following fisheries: Owenmore Estuary
commercial fishery; Tullaghan Ferry commercial fishery (in part, with additional
surplus allocated from the Owenduff 1SW surplus); Owenmore and Carrowmore
commercial fisheries; total rods on the Owenmore; and 1SW rods on the
Carrowmore. The MSW advice for the rod fishery in the Carrowmore is provided
separately.
Detailed consideration should be given by Fisheries Managers to the operation of
mixed-stock fisheries where an individual river surplus in a contributary river to the
mixed-stock is low. This is because the TEGOS has limited knowledge on the specific
allocation of the advised surplus amongst the various angling and commercial
33
fisheries that may occur there. For example, for the Castlemaine Harbour common
embayment a surplus of 2,627 is available at the 85% probability of attaining CL.
However, the individual advised harvest surplus for the River Maine stock at the 85%
probability of attaining CL is eight salmon. Therefore, the proportion of River Maine
salmon likely to be intercepted in the Castlemaine mixed-stock fishery, if operated,
should not exceed eight salmon and the quota set should be distributed
appropriately between the contributory fisheries with precaution to ensure this.
34
5. Recent trends in salmon stock status
Since 2007, scientific advice has been provided on an individual river basis regarding salmon
stock status. While scientific advice will continue to be presented on an individual river basis,
data from fish counters, where reliable long-term data is available, has been combined
(Figure 6) in order to provide an overview of trends in salmon stock status nationally.
5.1 Fish counter time series
The number of counters installed and used in stock assessments has increased since river-
specific advice began in 2007. The analysis is based on data obtained from a minimum of 9
to a maximum of 31 fish counters with a reasonable time series of data. The counter time
series runs from 2002 to the most recent full year. Corrected average yearly fish counts can
be calculated using a generalised linear model (GLM) to show the overall annual trend
across the available counters. This provides a benchmarked comparison of how annual
salmon returns have varied over this time period. Figure 6 shows variation in the mean values
for numbers of salmon counted through counters from 2002 to 2025, peaking in 2007 which
coincided with the cessation of offshore drift netting.
Figure 6 Marginal GLM Least Squares-mean standardised number of salmon counted through counters
operated between 2002 and 2025 (± 95% confidence intervals – grey band). The number of counters is
shown at the top. The linear trend over the full time period (red dashed line), and between 2007 and
the present (blue dashed line) are also indicated. Note that the drift net fishery ceased at the end of
the 2006 season.
35
Figure 7 Marginal GLM LS-mean standardised number of (a) 1SW grilse and (b) MSW counted through
counters operated between 2002 and 2025 95% confidence intervals grey band). The linear trend
over the full time period (red dashed line), and between 2007 and the present (blue dashed line) are
also indicated.
a
b
36
The overall linear trend of the fish counter time series indicates a decline in mean
abundance which has become more marked since 2007. A minor upturn was evident from
the low of 2015 until 2017. Since 2020, a declining trend is generally evident with 2023
representing the lowest value in the whole time series. However, 2024 shows a minor increase
relative to the preceding two years followed by a decline in 2025 which is the third lowest
estimate in the timeseries. Figure 7a shows trends in returns of one-sea-winter (1SW) grilse. As
1SW grilse constitute the majority of the overall salmon stock in Ireland, it is unsurprising that
the overall trend and year to year variations in mean stock abundance are similar as was
observed for the total salmon stock (Figure 6). Figure 7b presents trends in returning multi-
sea-winter (MSW) salmon, including spring salmon which predominantly return from January
to May inclusive. A moderately declining trend is evident in this stock component over the
time series. However, the estimate for 2025 represents an improvement over 2023 and 2024.
Overall, 18 of the 25 fish counter returns estimates in the most recent year are below their
mean counts from preceding years (Figure 8).
Figure 8 The proportional change in the salmon count in 2025 compared to the preceding multi-annual
mean count per fish counter (left panel); Mean salmon count and associated range (min, max) of the
preceding time series (indicated by black circle and bar, respectively) in comparison to the most
recent year’s count (indicated by red X) (right panel).
37
5.2 National returns and estimates of spawners relative to CL attainment
The ICES Working Group on North Atlantic Salmon (WGNAS) provides annual scientific advice
to the inter-governmental body NASCO for the management of fisheries in the North Atlantic.
In this advice, Irish wild salmon stocks are included as part of the southern complex in the
North-east Atlantic region, along with French, south-west Icelandic and UK stocks. As part of
the ICES advice process, for the southern stock complex and its constituent jurisdictions,
annual stock assessments and periodic stock forecasts (every one to three years) are
undertaken (ICES 2025).
For the ICES WGNAS assessments, stocks are divided into maturing 1SW i.e. grilse fish who
spend a single winter at sea before returning to Ireland; and non-maturing 1SW i.e. multi-sea
winter fish who spend, typically two, or more years at sea before returning to Ireland. The
following stock statuses are considered:
PFA (Pre-fisheries abundance): Abundance of maturing 1SW and non-maturing 1SW in
the ocean before any fisheries or natural mortality on their return migration takes place.
CL (conservation limit). This is the sum of the conservation limits of all Irish salmon rivers.
SER (Spawner escapement reserve). This level on the graph indicates the minimum
amount of fish that are required in the PFA phase to meet the national CL set for each
stock component. The SER accounts for the natural mortality that occurs between the
PFA stage and the return of fish to home-waters. It is derived from the national CL by
accounting for the natural mortality and distant water fisheries that occur during the
fish’s residence at sea.
1SW / MSW returns: number of fish returning to the Irish coast after high seas fisheries
and taking account natural mortality rates while at sea.
1SW / MSW spawners: number of spawning fish in Irish rivers.
5.2.1 One-sea-winter returns and spawners
The ICES advice shows that 1SW returns to Ireland before fisheries take place were above CL
from 1971 to 2008 and 2010 to 2012, and below CL in 2009 and 2011 and since 2013. (Figure
9). Indeed, reflecting this, following exploitation, spawners have been at or below CL for 31
of the 52 years in the time series and have not exceeded CL since 2004 (ICES 2025).
5.2.2 Multi-sea-winter returns and spawners
National MSW returns to Ireland exceeded CL until 1990 after which values fluctuated around
the CL until 2004. Since then, returns of MSW fish have been generally well below CL (Figure
9). While the management aim is to ensure that MSW spawners are above CL after any
38
fishery takes place, this has only been achieved once since 1988 and not since 2003 (ICES
2025).
Figure 9 Top panel: Pre-Fisheries Abundance of Irish 1SW and MSW salmon stocks (solid line) with
respective Spawner Escapement Reserve indicated (dashed line). Mid panels: Estimated return of 1SW
and MSW salmon to Ireland prior to homewater fisheries and spawners (solid line) relative to national CL
(dashed line). Bottom panels: Egg deposition from 1SW and MSW spawners (solid line) relative to CL in
eggs (dashed line). Orange line and shaded area represent hindcasting of the historical timeseries;
blue line and shaded area represent forecasting obtained under a scenario with zero catches in all
fisheries (for PFA and returns). Solid line is the median value and shaded areas are 90% credibility
intervals. (source: ICES 2025).
39
5.2.3 Stock forecast (2025 to 2028)
For the southern North-east Atlantic stock complex (2025 to 2028), of which Ireland is a
constituent jurisdiction, the median estimates of maturing and non-maturing PFA are forecast
to remain relatively stable for the years 2025 to 2028, though they remain amongst the lowest
estimates in the time-series. For the maturing PFA, the median is forecast to be below the SER
for the years 2025 to 2028. For the non-maturing PFA, the median is also forecast to remain
generally below the SER. As regard the Irish national stock, for both maturing and non-
maturing stocks, the median estimate of PFA is forecast to decline to the lowest estimates in
the time-series and be below the SER for the years 2025 to 2028 (ICES 2025). This modelled
projection essentially predicts that there will not be enough Irish one-sea-winter or multi-sea-
winter salmon present in the ocean to meet our national CL during this period.
5.2.4 Additional considerations
It is important to note that overall trends in our salmon stocks summarised at the national or
international scale do not necessarily reflect those observed in specific individual rivers where
inconsistent trends can be evident in a comparable time period. Indeed, ICES have
emphasised that national stock CLs are not appropriate for the management of homewater
fisheries. This is because of the relative imprecision of the national CLs and because they do
not consider differences in the status of different river stocks or sub-river populations. They
recommend that management at finer scales should consider individual river stock status.
This highlights the importance of evaluating the status of our stocks at a river-specific level as
a primary basis to inform sustainable fisheries management decisions.
40
6 Advice for stock rebuilding
6.1 International guidance on stock rebuilding
The terms of reference of the TEGOS are outlined earlier in this report. One of these
relates to salmon stocks below CL.
“In cases where stocks are determined to be below CLs, the TEGOS shall advise the
level to which catches should be reduced or other measures adopted on a fishery
basis in order to ensure a high degree of probability of meeting the CLs”.
Other measures to be adopted can relate to stock rebuilding programmes for salmon
stocks below CL. In 1998, NASCO adopted the “precautionary approachto fisheries
management. The NASCO Agreement on the Adoption of the Precautionary
Approach states, that:
an objective for the management of salmon fisheries is to provide the diversity and
abundance of salmon stocks’
or in other words to maintain both the productive capacity and diversity of salmon
stocks. NASCO provides an interpretation of how this is to be achieved. Management
measures should be aimed at maintaining all stocks above their CLs by the use of
management targets (MTs). This is highlighted in the NASCO Guidelines for the
Management of Salmon Fisheries (NASCO 2009) where they should be established at
a level above the CL to assist fishery managers in ensuring that there is a high
probability of stocks exceeding their CLs. The precautionary approach is an
integrated approach that requires, inter alia, that stock rebuilding programmes (SRPs)
be developed for stocks that are below CLs. Indeed, NASCO have developed
Guidelines on the Use of Stock Rebuilding Programmes (SRP) in the Context of the
Precautionary Management of Salmon Stocks in 2025, CNL(25)50. An SRP is likely to be
a suite of management measures designed to restore a wild Atlantic salmon stock to
a sustainable level as measured using a defined river-specific target. The nature and
extent of the programme will depend upon the status of the stock and the pressures
that it is facing. While the short-term response to a stock failing to achieve its river-
specific target may be to reduce or eliminate exploitation, there will generally be a
need to identify and address the causes of the stock decline along with other actions.
NASCO recommend that SRPs should be developed for all stocks that are failing to
exceed their CLs and also consider SRPs where the long-term viability of the stock is at
risk of failing to exceed its CL.
41
NASCO’s SRP guidelines were developed to inter alia provide a link between several
other guidance documents developed by NASCO in relation to the application of the
Precautionary Approach, including the Decision Structure for the Management of
Salmon Fisheries, and the Plan of Action for the Protection and Restoration of Atlantic
Salmon Habitats. Supporting this, NASCO has adopted Guidelines for the
Management of Salmon Fisheries, CNL(09)43, Guidelines for the Protection, Restoration
and Enhancement of Salmon Habitat, CNL(10)51, and Guidance on Best
Management Practices to Address Impacts of Sea Lice and Escaped Farmed Salmon
on Wild Salmon Stocks, SLG(09)5, which contain elements relevant to stock rebuilding.
In 2024 NASCO agreed a Ten-Year Strategy and Action Plan which forms the basis for
its fourth reporting cycle, starting in 2026, in which Performance Indicators and
Conservation Commitment Reports will be used to measure progress towards the
achievement of NASCO’s Resolutions, Agreements and Guidelines. As such, Ireland
now has obligations under these measures to develop and implement urgent and
transformative actions to slow the decline of wild Atlantic salmon populations over the
next 10 years. This should be done by targeting priority pressures on our stocks as
identified in our national assessment of human stressors impacting Irish Atlantic salmon
populations (Figure 10). The top stressor identified was climate change in the North
Atlantic Ocean. However, given the formidable scale of this stressor and little ability to
directly address this pressure, the three priority pressures identified by Ireland are
pollution, habitat degradation and aquaculture (NASCO 2025a; NASCO 2025b). For
each of these priority pressures, actions are required to mitigate for and address these
threats. It is important to note that over-exploitation as a pressure scored reasonably
low in the assessment mainly due to a reduction in exploitation in Irish salmon fisheries
in recent decades, annual provision of catch advice based on scientific stock
assessment to ensure river fisheries are sustainably exploited and the considerable
extent of the protection work carried out by IFI against illegal fishing, both at sea and
in rivers. This does not of course preclude Ireland addressing measures outside of the
three priority pressures identified but highlights the general importance to salmon for
Ireland to undertake urgent and transformative actions to address the priority
pressures identified.
Jurisdictions must submit their draft Conservation Commitments Reports to NASCO by
5th February 2026 which outline actions that will be taken under the priority pressures
identified in their national stressors assessment.
42
Figure 10 National assessment of human stressors impacting Irish Atlantic salmon populations
(adapted from NASCO 2025b).
6.2 Factors affecting stock rebuilding programmes for Irish salmon stocks
Closure of marine mixed-stock fisheries for salmon and even complete closure of some
salmon rivers to harvest fisheries may not ensure that all rivers will meet or exceed CLs
in the short term. There are several identifiable problems militating against immediate
recovery and this must be taken into account for future management over and
above management of fisheries (Thorstad et al. 2021). In some instances, such as
large-scale changes in the North Atlantic Ocean-atmosphere system that could
contribute to poorer marine survival of salmon, it may not be possible to reverse the
specific problems directly. Some of these specific problems related to marine survival
are outlined below.
Marine survival
Decreased survival rate in the marine environment, rather than in natal rivers, seems to
explain the current poor state of many salmon populations (ICES 2016). Marine survival
of Irish salmon has declined from 15% to 20% of juveniles returning as adults to Irish
rivers in the 1970s and 1980s to a current level which fluctuates around the 5% level.
Current estimates of marine survival are amongst the lowest in the time series and
43
suggest that based on recent years, under 5% of the wild smolts that go to sea from
Irish rivers are surviving (i.e. under 5 adults returning for every 100 out-migrating smolts).
This data is based on coded-wire and PIT tagging programmes run by IFI and the
Marine Institute. These programmes tag smolts going to sea in index rivers and assess
the subsequent proportion that return to the river and coastal environment as adults.
However, rivers that monitor marine return rates of Atlantic salmon frequently show
variable return rates between salmon populations in separate and in overlapping
geographic regions, denoting that a variety of factors at local, regional and
continental scales control the success rate of out-migrating smolt to adult returns (ICES
2023; Figure 11). Marine survival can be partitioned into coastal (transitional and
inshore waters) and oceanic (offshore and open ocean) components. The coastal
component operates during the first migration of juvenile salmon (smolts) out of their
natal river. Events during such early life stages in the freshwater and estuarine
environment can have an impact on the subsequent marine survival of salmon.
Coastal pressures include local pollution, predation, and increased rates of sea lice
infestation associated with salmon aquaculture.
The North Atlantic Ocean undergoes cyclical changes, showing multi-decadal
variability in sea surface temperatures, ocean circulation currents and ecosystem
productivity. Well described sources of this long-term internal (natural) variability
include the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) and the North Atlantic Oscillation
(NAO). The AMO is particularly relevant to the marine ecology of Atlantic salmon and
generates a long-term oscillation of North Atlantic conditions resulting in “warm” and
“cool” phases. In general, Atlantic salmon marine survival and growth rates correlate
with shifts in the AMO phase (Condron et al. 2005; Friedland et al. 2014). The AMO
exhibited a pronounced cool phase during the 1970s toward the late 1980s, a period
of high salmon returns, and a warming phase since ~1995, when declining trends in
the abundance of salmon were observed across the North Atlantic basin.
Furthermore, externally forced trends related to anthropogenically-driven climate
change can interact with and modify the multi-decadal variability of the North
Atlantic Ocean, including the AMO (Terray, 2012). The combination of the current
“warm” phase of the AMO and the underlying warming trend due to climate change
is strongly implicated in the current North Atlantic-wide record low abundance of
salmon, with multiple regions, including Ireland, recording all-time low salmon returns
in 2023 or 2024 (ICES 2025). In this general context it is important to note that the
relatively high returns of salmon observed in the decades prior to the 1990s (ICES time
series) may represent a high point for the stock internationally and not necessarily
reflect the baseline state to be expected for the species.
44
Ocean warming can negatively impact oceanic growth and survival of Atlantic
salmon (Todd et al. 2008; McCarthy et al. 2008; Friedland et al. 2009; Friedland et al.
2003). Whilst the marine ecology of Atlantic salmon is still poorly understood, the
mechanism for reduced survival under such oceanic conditions may be linked to
observed changes in marine trophic regimes in the North Atlantic, with declines in
salmon survival and growth related to shifts in primary production and zooplankton
abundance (Beaugrand and Reid, 2012; Mills et al. 2013; Defriez et al. 2016). Of
particular significance was the detection of an abrupt shift in growth conditions for
Atlantic salmon around 2005 (Vollset et al. 2022), which coincides with accelerated
declines in numbers of Irish fish returning to natal rivers. However, the exact
mechanisms at play leading to reduced marine survival are still not fully understood
and further evidence relating to changes in primary production at sea leading to
changes in prey distribution, abundance and energetic content require further
investigation. Other areas of investigation include direct mortality impacts related to
predator abundance and distribution (fish/seabirds/mammals) and by-catch in
pelagic fisheries.
Figure 11 The factors which individually and synergistically affect the marine survival of salmon
and which cause significant changes to life history responses such as population structure,
fitness and size.
A particular challenge toward understanding the future fate of Atlantic salmon relates
to the challenge of forecasting the AMO at decadal timescales with a high degree of
confidence, owing to the complex interaction between natural internal variability and
long-term anthropogenically-driven climate forcing (e.g. Hao et al. 2025). A shift
45
towards a cooler AMO phase, which ostensibly may improve marine survival rates of
Atlantic salmon, could emerge in future decades but high uncertainty remains. Given
such uncertainty, and current concerns that large-scale marine stressors at the North
Atlantic scale are impacting salmon, management actions to improve survival in, and
production from, the freshwater and coastal phase of the life cycle are critical in the
attempt to safeguard the species through this period of record low marine survival.
Maximising the number of healthy, resilient wild smolts migrating from rivers is currently
the most effective strategy toward achieving this (e.g. Thorstad et al. 2021).
Freshwater
Within river systems and transitional coastal waters, the principal threats to the
sustainability of salmon stocks include:
water quality issues from agriculture, domestic waste-water treatment and
forestry; and urban waste-water pressures;
hydromorphological pressures that debilitate spawning and juvenile rearing
habitat;
marine salmon aquaculture;
climate change stressors;
migration barriers;
invasive alien species;
heightened predation pressures and disease; and
over-exploitation of stocks and illegal fishing.
These may act at local and regional scales and individual stocks may be
synergistically affected by multiple such stressors. Addressing such anthropogenic
pressures is key to facilitating the natural recovery of vulnerable stocks through
increasing freshwater production potential to ultimately maximise adult returns.
Water quality and hydromorphological issues (including channelisation, drainage
works and modification of the river corridor through catchment land use practices)
continue to remain as major pressures affecting the continued sustainability of our
salmon stocks at a national scale. Despite increasing awareness surrounding these
pressures in recent years and attempts to address them, in general there has not been
significant improvement in either hydromorphology or water quality to date at a scale
that would have measurable conservation benefits to salmon stocks. It should be
noted that locally-focused initiatives to improve habitat or address water quality
pressures do however, demonstrate that improvements are possible and TEGOS are
aware of many such actions that are underway.
46
The latest EPA assessment for water quality in Ireland (period 2019-2024) showed that,
rather than any significant overall improvement, that there has been a small decline in
water quality compared to the previous reporting assessments with only 52% of our
surface waters now considered to have at least good ecological status. The number
of estuarine waters classed as having satisfactory water quality also declined with 70%
now in unsatisfactory condition, a reduction of 5% compared to the previous
assessment period (2016-2021). For both, this has largely been attributed to diffuse
inputs, with elevated nutrient concentrations (nitrogen and phosphorus), continuing to
be the most widespread issue along with habitat loss associated with
hydromorphology pressures such as barriers and land drainage.
Additional pressures and threats impacting salmon in Irish freshwater and transitional
waters include marine salmon aquaculture, water regulation and abstraction and
changes in thermal and hydrological regimes associated with climate change.
Impacts from salmon aquaculture include increased sea lice infestation pressure
which can lead to reduced marine survival in afflicted wild salmon smolts and
potential genetic introgression from farm escapes. Whilst completely impassable
barriers have the gravest impact on the conservation status of Irish salmon (as they
limit the freshwater production capacity of the national stock), mitigating minor or
moderate barriers will also decrease migration stress for adult and juvenile salmon.
Regulation of river flows through hydropower extraction dams, reservoirs and
abstraction points for human and agricultural water consumption may also affect
salmon stocks by disturbing migration routes and creating unnaturalised flow regimes
and compounding stress during dry periods. This is likely to become a more pressing
concern in future years through climate-mediated droughts and increased water
demands. Climate change affecting estuaries, rivers and lakes is already impacting
salmon, with sublethal thermal stress conditions increasingly observed each summer in
Ireland in the past 10-20 years, adverse winter conditions (mild, wet winters with
extreme flooding events) having the potential to affect spawning recruitment and
warm, dry spells during spring potentially impacting smolt migration success. The
primary concern related to the stressors listed here is the capacity for a multi-stressor
scenario, where individual pressures combine to create a compounded situation for
salmon, which will decrease resilience and capacity to adapt to the low marine
survival salmon are currently experiencing. Removing or mitigating individual stressors
listed here that are operating in freshwater or transitional waters currently represents
the most pragmatic approach to stabilise overall declining population trends.
47
7 Changes to assessments in future years
Until such time as new methods become available, the existing forecast model based
on fisheries data or count data will be applied using the currently derived CLs. Data
will continue to be updated and where appropriate, improved to provide catch
advice.
7.1 Exploitation rates
The SSCS examined rod exploitation rates on rivers with counters in 2008 to derive
estimates of the likely range of exploitation by anglers on salmon stocks. Since then,
new counters have been installed on many rivers and a time series of rod exploitation
has been generated on a range of rivers nationally. An extensive review of salmon
exploitation rates in Irish rivers (Millane et al., 2017) using rod catch and fish counter
data was published in 2017 but has not yet been incorporated into estimates of adult
salmon return. It is envisaged that this work will be revised to include more recent data
as well as investigating if climatic influences and river characteristics can be
incorporated into exploitation rates. As such, TEGOS intend to further develop this
data to refine the rod exploitation rates currently being used to provide estimates of
salmon stock status.
7.2 River Lee, River Owenacurra and Cork Harbour
TEGOS advice was sought by IFI Management in 2023 on a stakeholder query
concerning the Lower River Lee and Owenacurra stocks in relation to the Cork
Harbour commercial fishery. Since the move to river-specific conservation limits (CLs)
in 2007, the Lower Lee has been deemed to exceed its conservation limit and a
sustainable surplus for exploitation has been advised. This surplus has been divided
between the angling and commercial fisheries. To date, the commercial fishery in
Cork Harbour has been managed as a single stock (as part of the Lower Lee stock)
and scientific advice has been given in this regard with no consideration given to
status of the Owenacurra stock. As such, as a future basis for providing revised
scientific catch advice for the commercial fishery in Cork Harbour, a study was
commissioned to establish the river origin of the salmon caught in this commercial
fishery.
In summer 2024, an extensive sampling programme was undertaken in the Cork
Harbour commercial fishery and in rivers that potentially contribute salmon to this
fishery. Some supplementary sampling was undertaken in autumn 2025. It is envisaged
that a report will be produced for consideration well in advance of the 2027 catch
advice.
48
8 Conclusions
Overall, only 28% of the 144 salmon designated river stocks are assessed to be
exceeding biologically-based CLs at the 75% probability level. This includes 53% (n=41)
of the 77 salmon stocks where direct assessments could be made. In addition, 29 more
river stocks are advised to open for C&R-only angling as assessments indicate
relatively high juvenile densities or the stocks are deemed to be under CL but meeting
≥65% of CL. A further 74 stocks are advised to be closed to all fishing. As such, it is clear
that the overall proportion of rivers with good population status is moderate. Fish
counters and traps provide the most direct assessment of salmon stock status in rivers.
The number installed and used in stock assessments has increased from 9 in 2002 to a
maximum of 31 in recent years. There has been variation in the mean count since
2002, with highest numbers recorded in 2007 coinciding with the cessation of offshore
drift netting. However, there has been a marked decline in salmon counts
subsequently. These counter data can be considered as an index for other rivers
nationally and likely reflect the national trend. Indeed, the Fish Counter Programme
provides a quantitative measure of salmon returns in Irish rivers where they operate. As
such it is considered to be a strategically important asset in regard to the assessment
of salmon stocks and the associated sustainable catch advice provided annually by
TEGOS.
Marine survival values in recent years are amongst the lowest recorded. Changes in
oceanic conditions leading to poor recruitment of salmon have been implicated by
NASCO following international investigations into the decline of salmon stocks (e.g.
SALSEA Merge). Recent stock forecasts from ICES for Irish stocks in the southern range
of the North-east Atlantic, indicate that this low stock situation will prevail at least until
2028. Given the current poor survival, the expectation of large catches is unrealistic at
present and priority should be given to conservation objectives rather than catch
increases until there is a noticeable improvement in stock abundance.
In this regard, the ongoing management policy of adopting the scientific advice to
only allow exploitation on stocks above CL is central to support the recovery of salmon
stocks nationally. With this policy in place, any improvement in marine survival rates
and /or in the total abundance of out-migrating smolts would likely be reflected in
greater numbers of rivers achieving CL. This will contribute to complying with ICES and
NASCO advice of providing for the diversity and abundance of salmon stocks.
49
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and hydroclimatic change in the Northeast Atlantic. ICES Journal of Marine Science
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Defriez, E.J., Sheppard, L.W., Reid, P.C. and Reuman, D.C. (2016). Climate change-related
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Friedland, K.D., Shank, B.V., Todd, C.D., McGinnity, P. and Nye, J.A. (2014). Differential response
of continental stock complexes of Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) to the Atlantic
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Friedland, K.D., MacLean, J.C., Hansen, L.P., Peyronnet, A.J., Karlsson, L., Reddin, D.G., Ó
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Gargan, P., Roche, W., Keane, S. and Stafford, T. (2008). Catchment-wide electrofishing Report.
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2016, Copenhagen, Denmark. ICES CM 2016/ACOM:10. 323 pp.
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Advisory Committee, 2025. ICES Advice 2025, sal.neac.all.
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of Atlantic salmon from the Drammen River, Norway. Journal of Fish Biology 72:1572-1588.
Millane, M., Shephard, S., White, J., Ó Maoiléidigh, N., O’Higgins, K., O’Malley, P., Roche, W.,
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(2021). Atlantic salmon in a rapidly changing environment—Facing the challenges of
reduced marine survival and climate change. Aquatic Conservation: Marine and
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Detrimental effects of recent ocean surface warming on growth condition of Atlantic
salmon. Global Change Biology 14:958-970.
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unprecedented reduction in marine growth of Atlantic salmon. Science Advances 8:
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Salmon Trust, Moulin, Pitlochry, Scotland.
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variability in biological reference points and population dynamics into management of
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51
10 Appendices
Appendix I. Members of the Technical Expert Group on Salmon (TEGOS)
2025/2026
Dr Sylvan Benaksas – Inland Fisheries Ireland
Dr Seán Kelly – Inland Fisheries Ireland
Dr Richard Kennedy – AFBI Northern Ireland
Mr Hugo Maxwell – Marine Institute
Dr Sarah McLean – Loughs Agency
Dr Michael Millane (Chair) – Inland Fisheries Ireland
52
Appendix II. River rod catch exploitation rates applied for 2026 catch advice
Table 8 River rod catch exploitation rates applied for the 2026 catch advice.
District River Year Total or 1SW exploitation rate MSW exploitation rate
Min. Likely Max. Min. Likely Max.
Dundalk
Fane
2024
-
2025
0.01
0.05
0.12
0.06
0.12
0.27
Dundalk
Fane
2023
0.07
0.11
0.26
0.06
0.09
0.2
Dundalk
Fane
2022
0.01
0.05
0.12
0.06
0.12
0.27
Dundalk
Fane
2021
0.01
0.04
0.1
0.06
0.1
0.22
Dundalk
Glyde
2024
-
2025
0.01
0.05
0.12
0.06
0.12
0.27
Dundalk
Glyde
2023
0.01
0.0375
0.09
0.06
0.09
0.2
Dundalk
Glyde
2021
-
2022
0.01
0.05
0.12
0.06
0.1
0.22
Wexford
Slaney
2024
-
2025
0.01
0.05
0.12
0.06
0.12
0.27
Wexford
Slaney
2023
0.01
0.0375
0.09
0.06
0.09
0.2
Wexford
Slaney
2022
0.01
0.05
0.12
0.06
0.12
0.27
Wexford
Slaney
2021
0.01
0.04
0.1
0.06
0.1
0.22
Waterford
Barrow and Pollmounty
2024
-
2025
0.01
0.05
0.12
0.06
0.12
0.27
Waterford
Barrow and Pollmounty
2023
0.01
0.0375
0.09
0.06
0.09
0.2
Waterford
Barrow and Pollmounty
2022
0.01
0.05
0.12
0.06
0.12
0.27
Waterford
Barrow and Pollmounty
2021
0.01
0.04
0.1
0.06
0.12
0.27
Waterford
Nore
2022
-
2025
0.01
0.05
0.12
0.06
0.12
0.27
Waterford
Nore
2021
0.01
0.04
0.1
0.06
0.12
0.27
Waterford
Suir, Clodiagh, Lingaun
2024
-
2025
0.01
0.05
0.12
0.06
0.12
0.27
Waterford
Suir, Clodiagh, Lingaun
2023
0.01
0.0375
0.09
0.06
0.09
0.2
Waterford
Suir, Clodiagh, Lingaun
2022
0.01
0.05
0.12
0.06
0.12
0.27
Waterford
Suir, Clodiagh, Lingaun
2021
0.07
0.15
0.35
0.06
0.12
0.27
Lismore
Blackwater, Glenshelane, Finisk
2022
-
2025
0.1
0.15
0.2
Lismore
Blackwater, Glenshelane, Finisk
2021
0.067
0.1
0.14
Lismore
Bride
2023
-
2025
0.01
0.05
0.12
Lismore
Bride
2021
-
2022
0.07
0.15
0.35
Cork
Argideen
2023
-
202
5
0.01
0.05
0.12
Cork
Argideen
2022
0.07
0.15
0.35
Cork
Argideen
2021
0.01
0.04
0.1
Cork
Bandon
2022
-
202
5
0.07
0.15
0.35
0.06
0.12
0.27
53
District River Year Total or 1SW exploitation rate MSW exploitation rate
Min. Likely Max. Min. Likely Max.
Cork
Bandon
2021
0.07
0.12
0.28
0.06
0.1
0.22
Cork
Coomhola
2024
-
2025
0.07
0.15
0.35
Cork
Coomhola
2021
-
2023
0.07
0.11
0.26
Cork
Glengarriff
2022
-
202
5
0.01
0.05
0.12
Cork
Glengarriff
2021
0.01
0.04
0.1
Cork
Ilen
2021
-
202
5
0.07
0.15
0.35
0.06
0.12
0.27
Cork
Lower Lee (Cork)
2024
-
2025
0.07
0.15
0.35
0.06
0.12
0.27
Cork
Lower Lee (Cork)
2023
0.07
0.11
0.26
0.06
0.09
0.2
Cork
Lower Lee (Cork)
2022
0.07
0.15
0.35
0.06
0.12
0.27
Cork
Lower Lee (Cork)
2021
0.07
0.12
0.28
0.06
0.1
0.22
Cork
Mealagh
2025
0.07
0.15
0.35
Cork
Mealagh
2021
-
2024
0.
01
0.
05
0.
12
Cork
Owvane
2022
-
202
5
0.01
0.05
0.12
Cork
Owvane
2021
0.01
0.04
0.1
Kerry
Caragh
2024
-
2025
0.07
0.15
0.35
0.15
0.31
0.46
Kerry
Caragh
2023
0.07
0.11
0.26
0.15
0.31
0.46
Kerry
Caragh
2022
0.07
0.15
0.35
0.15
0.31
0.46
Kerry
Caragh
2021
0.07
0.12
0.28
0.15
0.31
0.46
Kerry
Croanshagh
2024
-
2025
0.01
0.05
0.12
Kerry
Croanshagh
2023
0.01
0.0375
0.09
Kerry
Croanshagh
2021
-
2022
0.01
0.05
0.12
Kerry
Ferta
2025
0.01
0.05
0.12
Kerry
Ferta
2021
-
202
4
0.07
0.15
0.35
Kerry
Inney
2024
-
2025
0.07
0.15
0.35
Kerry
Inney
2023
0.07
0.11
0.26
Kerry
Inney
2021
-
2022
0.07
0.15
0.35
Kerry
Laune and Cottoners
2024
-
2025
0.07
0.15
0.35
0.15
0.31
0.46
Kerry
Laune and Cottoners
2023
0.07
0.11
0.26
0.15
0.31
0.46
Kerry
Laune and Cottoners
2022
0.07
0.15
0.35
0.15
0.31
0.46
Kerry
Laune and Cottoners
2021
0.07
0.12
0.28
0.15
0.25
0.37
Kerry
Maine
2022
-
2025
0.05
0.08
0.11
Kerry
Maine
2021
0.05
0.064
0.08
Kerry
Owenmore
2024
-
2025
0.07
0.15
0.35
54
District River Year Total or 1SW exploitation rate MSW exploitation rate
Min. Likely Max. Min. Likely Max.
Kerry
Owenmore
2023
0.07
0.11
0.26
Kerry
Owenmore
2022
0.07
0.15
0.35
Kerry
Owenmore
2021
0.01
0.04
0.1
Kerry
Roughty
2024
-
2025
0.05
0.1
0.15
Kerry
Roughty
2023
0.07
0.11
0.26
Kerry
Roughty
2022
0.07
0.15
0.35
Kerry Roughty 2021 0.07 0.12 0.28
Kerry
Sheen
2024
-
2025
0.01
0.05
0.12
Kerry
Sheen
2023
0.07
0.11
0.26
Kerry
Sheen
2022
0.07
0.15
0.35
Kerry
Sheen
2021
0.01
0.05
0.12
Kerry
Sneem
2024
-
2025
0.01
0.05
0.12
Kerry
Sneem
2023
0.07
0.11
0.26
Kerry
Sneem
2021
-
2022
0.07
0.15
0.35
Kerry
Waterville
2022
-
2025
0.175
0.225
0.385
0.15
0.31
0.46
Kerry
Waterville
2021
0.175
0.18
0.308
0.15
0.25
0
.37
Limerick
Doonbeg
2024
-
2025
0.01
0.05
0.12
Limerick
Doonbeg
2023
0.07
0.11
0.26
Limerick
Doonbeg
2022
0.07
0.15
0.35
Limerick
Doonbeg
2021
0.01
0.05
0.12
Connemara
Screebe
2024
-
2025
0.01
0.05
0.12
Connemara
Screebe
2023
0.07
0.11
0.26
Connemara
Screebe
2022
0.07
0.15
0.35
Connemara
Screebe
2021
0.07
0.15
0.35
Ballinakill
Bundorragha
2024
-
2025
0.07
0.15
0.35
0.15
0.31
0.46
Ballinakill
Bundorragha
2023
0.07
0.11
0.26
0.15
0.31
0.46
Ballinakill
Bundorragha
2022
0.07
0.15
0.35
0.15
0.31
0.46
Ballinakill
Bundorragha
2021
0.07
0.12
0.28
0.06
0.12
0.27
Ballinakill
Carrownisky
2024
-
2025
0.01
0.05
0.12
Ballinakill
Carrownisky
2023
0.01
0.0375
0.09
Ballinakill
Carrownisky
2021
-
2022
0.01
0.05
0.12
Ballinakill
Owenwee (Belclare)
2024
-
2025
0.01
0.05
0.12
55
District River Year Total or 1SW exploitation rate MSW exploitation rate
Min. Likely Max. Min. Likely Max.
Ballinakill
Owenwee (Belclare)
2023
0.01
0.0375
0.09
Ballinakill
Owenwee (Belclare)
2021
-
2022
0.01
0.05
0.12
Bangor
Glenamoy
2023
-
2025
0.01
0.05
0.12
Bangor
Glenamoy
2022
0.07
0.15
0.35
Bangor
Glenamoy
2021
0.01
0.05
0.12
Bangor
Newport R. (Lough Beltra)
2025
0.01
0.025
0.06
0.06
0.10
0.22
Bangor
Newport R. (Lough Beltra)
2024
0.01
0.025
0.06
0.06
0.12
0.27
Bangor
Newport R. (Lough Beltra)
2023
0.05
0.075
0.11
0.06
0.12
0.27
Bangor
Newport R. (Lough Beltra)
2022
0.05
0.1
0.15
0.06
0.12
0.27
Bangor
Newport R. (Lough Beltra)
2021
0.05
0.08
0.12
0.06
0.1
0.22
Ballina
Easky
2025
0.0
35
0.
075
0.
175
Ballina
Easky
2024
0.07
0.15
0.35
Ballina
Easky
2022
-
2023
0.07
0.11
0.26
Ballina
Easky
2021
0.07
0.12
0.28
Ballina
Moy
2025
0.07
0.11
0.26
0.15
0.23
0.35
Ballina
Moy
2024
0.07
0.15
0.35
0.15
0.31
0.46
Ballina
Moy
2023
0.07
0.11
0.26
0.15
0.23
0.35
Ballina
Moy
2022
0.07
0.15
0.35
0.15
0.31
0.46
Ballina
Moy
2021
0.1
0.33
0.50
0.15
0.31
0.46
Sligo
Drumcliff
2024
-
2025
0.07
0.15
0.35
Sligo
Drumcliff
2023
0.07
0.11
0.26
Sligo
Drumcliff
2022
0.07
0.15
0.35
Sligo
Drumcliff
2021
0.07
0.12
0.28
Sligo
Garvogue (Bonnet)
2024
-
2025
0.01
0.05
0.12
0.06
0.12
0.27
Sligo
Garvogue (Bonnet)
2023
0.01
0.05
0.12
0.06
0.12
0.27
Sligo
Garvogue (Bonnet)
2022
0.01
0.05
0.12
0.06
0.12
0.27
Sligo
Garvogue (Bonnet)
2021
0.01
0.04
0.1
0.06
0.1
0.22
Ballyshannon
Bungosteen
2024
-
2025
0.01
0.05
0.12
Ballyshannon
Bungosteen
2023
0.01
0.0375
0.09
Ballyshannon
Bungosteen
2022
0.01
0.05
0.12
Ballyshannon
Bungosteen
2021
0.01
0.04
0.1
Ballyshannon
Drowes
2024
-
2025
0.07
0.15
0.35
0.15
0.31
0.46
Ballyshannon
Drowes
2023
0.07
0.11
0.26
0.06
0.12
0.27
56
District River Year Total or 1SW exploitation rate MSW exploitation rate
Min. Likely Max. Min. Likely Max.
Ballyshannon
Drowes
2022
0.035
0.075
0.175
0.15
0.31
0.46
Ballyshannon
Drowes
2021
0.07
0.15
0.35
0.06
0.12
0.27
Ballyshannon
Duff
2024
-
2025
0.01
0.05
0.12
Ballyshannon
Duff
2023
0.01
0.0375
0.09
Ballyshannon
Duff
2022
0.01
0.05
0.12
Ballyshannon
Duff
2021
0.01
0.04
0.1
Ballyshannon
Glen
2024
-
2025
0.01
0.05
0.12
Ballyshannon
Glen
2023
0.01
0.0375
0.09
Ballyshannon
Glen
2021
-
2022
0.01
0.05
0.12
Ballyshannon
Oily
2024
-
2025
0.01
0.05
0.12
Ballyshannon
Oily
2023
0.01
0.0375
0.09
Ballyshannon
Oily
2022
0.01
0.05
0.12
Ballyshannon
Oily
2021
0.01
0.04
0.1
Ballyshannon
Owenwee (Yellow)
2024
-
2025
0.01
0.05
0.12
Ballyshannon
Owenwee (Yellow)
2023
0.01
0.0375
0.09
Ballyshannon
Owenwee (Yellow)
2022
0.01
0.05
0.12
Ballyshannon
Owenwee (Yellow)
2021
0.01
0.04
0.1
Letterkenny
Clady
2024
-
2025
0.07
0.15
0.35
Letterkenny
Clady
2023
0.07
0.11
0.26
Letterkenny
Clady
2022
0.07
0.15
0.35
Letterkenny
Clady
2021
0.07
0.12
0.28
Letterkenny
Crana
2025
0.01
0.05
0.12
Letterkenny
Crana
2024
0.01
0.05
0.12
Letterkenny
Crana
2023
0.07
0.11
0.26
Letterkenny
Crana
2021
-
2022
0.01
0.05
0.12
Letterkenny
Gweebara
2024
-
2025
0.07
0.15
0.35
0.06
0.12
0.27
Letterkenny
Gweebara
2023
0.07
0.11
0.26
0.06
0.12
0.27
Letterkenny
Gweebara
2022
0.01
0.05
0.12
0.06
0.12
0.27
Letterkenny
Gweebara
2021
0.07
0.12
0.28
0.06
0.1
0.22
Letterkenny
Gweedore (Crolly R.)
2021
-
2025
0.01
0.05
0.12
Letterkenny
Leannan
2022
-
2025
0.01
0.05
0.12
0.06
0.12
0.27
Letterkenny
Leannan
2021
0.07
0.12
0.28
0.06
0.1
0.22
Letterkenny
Owenea and Owentocker
2024
-
2025
0.07
0.15
0.35
57
District River Year Total or 1SW exploitation rate MSW exploitation rate
Min. Likely Max. Min. Likely Max.
Letterkenny
Owenea and Owentocker
2023
0.07
0.11
0.26
Letterkenny
Owenea and Owentocker
2022
0.035
0.075
0.175
Letterkenny
Owenea and Owentocker
2021
0.07
0.12
0.28
Letterkenny
Ray
2024
-
2025
0.01
0.05
0.12
Letterkenny
Ray
2023
0.01
0.0375
0.09
Letterkenny
Ray
2022
0.01
0.05
0.12
Letterkenny
Ray
2021
0.01
0.04
0.1
Letterkenny
Tullaghobegly
2024
-
2025
0.01
0.05
0.12
Letterkenny
Tullaghobegly
2023
0.07
0.11
0.26
Letterkenny
Tullaghobegly
2022
0.01
0.05
0.12
Letterkenny
Tullaghobegly
2021
0.07
0.12
0.28
58
Appendix III. Summary results from the catchment-wide electro-fishing
programme in 2025
Analysis of salmon fry index
In cases where the scientific forecast of returning salmon recruits to a river provides a
catch option resulting in less than a 75% chance of the river meeting its conservation
limit (CL), the scientific advice recommends that the river is closed for fishing. As a
separate recommendation, TEGOS advise that if a river is meeting 65% or more of its
CL the river can open for catch and release-only (C&R-only) angling. There are many
rivers where a direct assessment is not possible due to a very low or inconsistent
reported angling catch (i.e. less than 10 on average annually). Therefore, advised
closures of rivers with very low rod catches, or which have been closed over a period
due to the absence of new and alternative information (e.g. fish counter information)
poses a problem for assessing the status of the rivers salmon population and CL
attainment over time as there are no new data for updating the forecast and risk
analysis method currently employed by the TEGOS.
A relative index of fry abundance based on a semi-quantitative electrofishing
technique (Crozier and Kennedy 1994; and Gargan et al. 2008) was developed in
2009 and 2010 to provide an alternative method for assessing CL attainment in rivers
closed for angling or where there was no counting facility. Electrofishing of juveniles
presents an alternative (and fisheries independent) source of population information
as the numbers of juveniles should be a good reflection of the number of adults which
produced them and the relative productive capacity of that river. This method is
based on a relationship between fry abundance (which may be measurable
annually) and adult returns for rivers with information on rod catches or counters over
a number of years was available. The scientific advice is that assessments should
preferentially be based on a recent five-year average of available data. Some
catchment-wide electro-fishing data are based on less than five data points,
however, it is expected that more robust assessments can be made over the coming
years as more surveys are carried out.
The method is primarily used for rivers where there is no other index of stock. Some
catchments are electro-fished annually as index catchments. An index of at least 17
salmon fry per five-minute standardised electro-fishing is advised as the cut-off
between rivers below this threshold where the stock is clearly below CL and those
rivers above the threshold where it is more likely that the stock is meeting CL. If the fry
index is above the threshold, C&R-only fishing in the following year is advised. This
59
provides a safeguard against opening a river prematurely, while still allowing some
fishery activity and the subsequent collection of catch data.
Catchment-wide electro-fishing is also important in providing managers with
information on the distribution and abundance of salmon fry and to identify
management issues in a catchment or tributary. The absence or low density of salmon
fry may be related to water quality issues, obstructions, or habitat damage and areas
of low abundance can be investigated.
During 2025, catchment-wide electro-fishing was undertaken in 41 catchments or sub-
catchments to assess abundance and distribution of salmon fry (Figure 12 and Figure
13). Thirty-six catchments were fully surveyed. Sub-catchment surveys were
undertaken on parts of the Erne and investigative surveys were conducted on portions
of the Ballysadare River, the Drowes system and the Liffey upper in Dublin. A survey
started on the Garvogue could not be completed due to high water levels. A total of
1047 sites were visited. In the 19 years of the programme (2007-2025) 673
catchment/sub-catchment surveys in 173 catchments or sub-catchments have been
undertaken comprising 16,099 site surveys. For the catchments surveyed in 2025 results
ranged from zero salmon fry on the Erne, Kealincha and Lough Fada, to 34.07 salmon
fry/ 5 min on the Sheen. Sixteen of the catchments surveyed in 2025 had averages of
at least 17 salmon fry/ 5 min in 2025. (Figure 12 and Figure 13).
60
Figure 12 Mean salmon fry index values for catchments surveyed in 2025.
61
Figure 13 Results of catchment wide electro-fishing undertaken in 2025.
62
Appendix IV. River / stock specific information used in the salmon catch
advice process for the 2026 advice and catch advice at various probabilities
of attaining conservation limit
This appendix is provided as a separate document.
63
Appendix V. Salmon-designated rivers within Special Areas of Conservation (SAC) where salmon have a qualifying interest and status
relative to CL for the 2026 advice.
Table 9 Salmon-designated rivers within Special Areas of Conservation (SAC) where salmon have a qualifying interest and status relative to conservation limit for the
2026 advice at the 75% probability of achieving CL.
District River Assessed river Above CL for 2026 advice SAC
Ballina
Brusna
N
RIVER MOY SAC
Ballina
Moy
Y
Above
RIVER MOY SAC
Ballinakill
Bundorragha
Y
1SW Above; MSW below
MWEELREA/SHEEFFRY/ERRIFF COMPLEX SAC
Ballinakill
Bunowen
Y
Above
MWEELREA/SHEEFFRY/ERRIFF COMPLEX SAC
Ballinakill
Carrownisky
Y
Above
MWEELREA/SHEEFFRY/ERRIFF COMPLEX SAC
Ballinakill
Culfin
Y
Above
THE TWELVE BENS/GARRAUN COMPLEX SAC
Ballinakill
Dawros
Y
Above
THE TWELVE BENS/GARRAUN COMPLEX SAC
Ballinakill
Erriff
Y
Below
MWEELREA/SHEEFFRY/ERRIFF COMPLEX SAC
Ballinakill
Owenglin
Y
Above
THE TWELVE BENS/GARRAUN COMPLEX SAC
Ballyshannon
Drowes
Y
Above
LOUGH MELVIN SAC
Ballyshannon
Eske
Y
Below
LOUGH ESKE AND ARDNAMONA WOOD SAC
Ballyshannon
Glen
Y
Above
SLIEVE TOOEY/TORMORE ISLAND/LOUGHROS BEG BAY SAC
Bangor
Ballinglen
N
GLENAMOY BOG COMPLEX SAC
Bangor
Glenamoy
Y
Below
GLENAMOY BOG COMPLEX SAC
Bangor
Muingnabo
N
GLENAMOY BOG COMPLEX SAC
Bangor
Newport
Y
Below
NEWPORT RIVER SAC
Bangor
Owenduff
Y
Above
MWEELREA/SHEEFFRY/ERRIFF COMPLEX SAC
Bangor
Owengarve
N
OWENDUFF/NEPHIN COMPLEX SAC
Bangor
Owenmore
Y
Above
MWEELREA/SHEEFFRY/ERRIFF COMPLEX SAC
Bangor
Srahmore
Y
Below
OWENDUFF/NEPHIN COMPLEX SAC
Connemara
Ballynahinch
Y
Above
THE TWELVE BENS/GARRAUN COMPLEX SAC
64
District River Assessed river Above CL for 2026 advice SAC
Connemara
Cashla
Y
Above
CONNEMARA BOG COMPLEX SAC
Connemara
Lough na Furnace
N
CONNEMARA BOG COMPLEX SAC
Connemara
Screebe
Y
Below
CONNEMARA BOG COMPLEX SAC / MAUMTURK MOUNTAINS SAC
Drogheda
Boyne
Y
Below
RIVER BOYNE AND RIVER BLACKWATER SAC
Galway
Corrib
Y
Above
LOUGH CORRIB SAC / MAUMTURK MOUNTAINS SAC
Galway
Knock
N
CONNEMARA BOG COMPLEX SAC
Galway
Owenboliska
Y
Below
CONNEMARA BOG COMPLEX SAC
Kerry
Behy
N
KILLARNEY NAT PARK, MACGILLYCUDDY'S REEKS SAC
Kerry
Caragh
Y
Above
KILLARNEY NAT PARK, MACGILLYCUDDY'S REEKS & CARAGH R CAT SAC
Kerry
Croanshaugh
Y
Below
GLANMORE BOG SAC
Kerry
Ferta
Y
Above
KILLARNEY NAT PARK, MACGILLYCUDDY'S REEKS & CARAGH R CAT SAC
Kerry
Finnihy
N
KILLARNEY NAT PARK, MACGILLYCUDDY'S REEKS & CARAGH R CAT SAC
Kerry
Inny
Y
Below
KILLARNEY NAT PARK, MACGILLYCUDDY'S REEKS & CARAGH R CAT SAC
Kerry
Kerry Blackwater
Y
Above
BLACKWATER RIVER (KERRY) SAC
Kerry
Laune and Cottoners
Y
Above
KILLARNEY NAT PARK, MACGILLYCUDDY'S REEKS SAC
Kerry
Lough Fada
N
GLANMORE BOG SAC
Kerry
Owenreagh
N
KILLARNEY NAT PARK, MACGILLYCUDDY'S REEKS & CARAGH R CAT SAC
Kerry
Roughty
Y
Above
KILLARNEY NAT PARK, MACGILLYCUDDY'S REEKS & CARAGH R CAT SAC
Kerry
Sneem
Y
Above
KILLARNEY NAT PARK, MACGILLYCUDDY'S REEKS & CARAGH R CAT SAC
Kerry
Waterville
Y
Above
KILLARNEY NAT PARK, MACGILLYCUDDY'S REEKS SAC
Letterkenny
Clady
Y
Below
LOUGH ESKE AND ARDNAMONA WOOD SAC
Letterkenny
Gweebarra
Y
1SW Above; MSW below
WEST OF ARDARA/MAAS ROAD SAC
Letterkenny
Gweedore (Crolly)
Y
Above
CLOGHERNAGORE BOG AND GLENVEAGH NATIONAL PARK SAC
Letterkenny
Lackagh
Y
Below
CLOGHERNAGORE BOG AND GLENVEAGH NATIONAL PARK SAC
Letterkenny
Leannan
Y
Below
LEANNAN RIVER SAC
65
District River Assessed river Above CL for 2026 advice SAC
Letterkenny
Owenea
Y
Above
WEST OF ARDARA/MAAS ROAD SAC
Letterkenny
Owennamarve
N
CLOGHERNAGORE BOG AND GLENVEAGH NATIONAL PARK SAC
Letterkenny
Ray
N
CLOGHERNAGORE BOG AND GLENVEAGH NATIONAL PARK SAC
Letterkenny
Tullaghobegly
Y
Above
CLOGHERNAGORE BOG AND GLENVEAGH NATIONAL PARK SAC
Limerick
Feale
Y
Above
LOWER RIVER SHANNON SAC
Limerick
Mulkear
Y
Below
LOWER RIVER SHANNON SAC
Limerick
Shannon
N
LOWER RIVER SHANNON SAC
Lismore
Blackwater
Y
Above
BLACKWATER RIVER (CORK/WATERFORD) SAC
Lismore
Bride
Y
Below
BLACKWATER RIVER (CORK/WATERFORD) SAC
Lismore
Lickey
N
BLACKWATER RIVER (CORK/WATERFORD) SAC
Sligo
Ballysadare
Y
Above
UNSHIN RIVER SAC
Sligo
Garavogue
Y
Below
LOUGH GILL SAC
Waterford
Barrow
Y
Below
RIVER BARROW AND RIVER NORE SAC
Waterford
Nore
Y
Below
RIVER BARROW AND RIVER NORE SAC
Waterford
Suir
Y
Below
LOWER RIVER SUIR SAC
Wexford
Slaney
Y
Below
SLANEY RIVER VALLEY SAC
Salmon is also a qualifying interest in the Castlemaine Harbour SAC (in freshwater only)
66