Battery Raw Materials Global Outlook PDF Free Download
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Battery raw
materials
global outlook
2025 | Fastmarkets | Battery Raw Materials Global Outlook Webinar – May 2025
33
Introduction
Paul Lusty
Head of Battery Raw Materials
Fastmarkets
2025 | Fastmarkets | Battery Raw Materials Global Outlook Webinar – May 2025
4
Agenda and speakers
1.Battery demand – Connor Watts
2.Lithium market – Will Adams
3.Nickel market – Olivier Masson
4.Cobalt market – Rob Searle
5.Graphite market – Amy Bennett
6.Manganese market – Rob Searle
7.Recycling & black mass – Luke Sweeney
8.Q&A
2025 | Fastmarkets | Battery Raw Materials Global Outlook Webinar – May 2025
2025 | Fastmarkets | Battery Raw Materials Global Outlook Webinar – May 2025
55
Demand outlook
Connor Watts
Analyst, Battery Raw Materials
Fastmarkets
2025 | Fastmarkets | Battery Raw Materials Global Outlook Webinar – May 2025
EV demand growth steady due to China and Europe
– but external factors prevent linear growth
6
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
Battery demand by sector
(GWh)
EV ESS Consumer electronics Battery Swaps
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Germany UK China Spain US France
Q1 2025 EV sales growth
% YoY
January February March
Source: Fastmarkets long-term forecasts
2025 | Fastmarkets | Battery Raw Materials Global Outlook Webinar – May 2025
ESS a stand-out market with strong upsides but
heightened trade risk
7
6x increase in ESS installations by 2035
Installations reach 1640 GWh by 2035
Upside risk to additional growth given
falling container costs
Downside risks: US tariffs on Chinese cells
threaten supply of cheap LFP cells
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
Global ESS installations by market
GWh
China US Europe ROW Australia India
CAGR 25%
Source: Fastmarkets long-term forecasts
2025 | Fastmarkets | Battery Raw Materials Global Outlook Webinar – May 2025
Chinese innovation finds commercial path for sodium
8
Source: Fastmarkets long-term forecasts
2025 | Fastmarkets | Battery Raw Materials Global Outlook Webinar – May 2025
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
2023 2024 2025f
BYD sodium energy density & cycle life roadmap
(Wh/kg LHS, target cycle life RHS)
Layered oxide Polyanionic
Layered oxide cycle capacity Polyanionic cycle capacity
• CATL’s Naxtra sodium battery to
initially launch as an integrated solution
for commercial vehicles, competing
against lead-acid
•Future application in dual-chemistry
batteries to improve LFP’s low
temperature performance, not compete
directly with LFP
99
Lithium market
William Adams
BRM & Base Metals Analytics
Fastmarkets
2025 | Fastmarkets | Battery Raw Materials Global Outlook Webinar – May 2025
Lithium prices fall to 4-year low amid oversupply
10
Source: Fastmarkets long-term forecasts
2025 | Fastmarkets | Battery Raw Materials Global Outlook Webinar – May 2025
•Lithium prices 32% in 2024
•2025 – downward trend persists:
–cif CJK carbonate 18% (avg. $9.5/kg)
–cif CJK hydroxide 11% (avg. 9.2/kg)
–Spodumene cif China 22% YTD
(avg. $835/tonne)
•Pressure on prices:
–Weak spot demand
–New mine supply ramping up
–Additional conversion capacity
–Inventory at record levels
–Falling futures prices
–Macroeconomic uncertainty
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
Jan 23 Jul 23 Jan 24 Jul 24 Jan 25
Lithium carbonate and hydroxide and spodumene price
$/kg (LHS), $/tonne (RHS)
Lithium carbonate 99.5% Li2CO3 min, BG, spot cif CJK
Lithium hydroxide 56.5% LiOH min, BG, spot cif CJK
Spodumene min 6% Li2O, spot price, cif China
600
650
700
750
800
850
900
950
8
8.5
9
9.5
10
10.5
11
Dec 24 Jan 25 Feb 25 Mar 25 Apr 25 May 25
Last years mine production cuts inadequate and
new supply ramps up
11
Source: Fastmarkets long-term forecasts
2025 | Fastmarkets | Battery Raw Materials Global Outlook Webinar – May 2025
•2024 – Australian spodumene and Chinese
lepidolite cuts and scaling back of investment
•2025 – further production cuts not forthcoming and
new production continues to ramp up
•African supply to increase 42% YoY 2025:
–Goulamina Mine, Mali
–Kamativi Phase II, Zimbabwe
–Blesberg Mine, S. Africa
•Argentinian supply:
–Centenario, Hombre Mueto West Sal de Ore,
Mariana projects
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
2025f 2026f 2027f 2028f 2029f
Mines supply changes Q2’25 vs Q1’25 forecast
‘000 tonnes LCE
Australia Chile Argentina China
Africa US Europe Others
Oversupply limits price upside and delays
investment
12
Source: Fastmarkets long-term forecasts
2025 | Fastmarkets | Battery Raw Materials Global Outlook Webinar – May 2025
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
-150
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
200
2022 2023 2024f 2025f 2026f 2027f 2028f 2029f
Market balance and price forecast
'000 tonnes (LHS), $/kg (RHS)
Market balance Lithium carbonate cif CJK
Survival pricing
Incentive pricing
•China continues to expand processed supply
(71% global production 2024); forecast to
increase 15% YoY 2025
–Restart CATL/Lopal Jianxiawo lepidolite mine and
refinery
•Larger surpluses and delayed rebalancing as
supply continues to outpace demand
•Greatest uncertainty stems from how China
responds and where western supply cuts may arise
•Long-term risk: ‘survival’ prices will not
incentivise next-in-line western projects to be
financed/built
Delayed rebalancing
13
Nickel market
Olivier Masson
Principal Analyst, Battery Raw Materials
Fastmarkets
13
2025 | Fastmarkets | Battery Raw Materials Global Outlook Webinar – May 2025
Batteries to lead demand growth
14
Source: Fastmarkets long-term forecasts, Xinze
•Nickel demand from Chinese pCAM sector
has been sluggish recently, but forecast
improvement in EV sales to lift battery
demand growth in the medium-term
•New NCM pCAM capacity is being ramped
up in Morocco and Indonesia
•Primary nickel demand growth to rise at
6.0% CAGR (2023-2029). Batteries CAGR:
17.5%; stainless steel: 3.3%
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
Q1
'22
Q2
'22
Q3
'22
Q4
'22
Q1
'23
Q2
'23
Q3
'23
Q4
'23
Q1
'24
Q2
'24
Q3
'24
Q4
'24
Q1
'25
Nickel in Chinese pCAM
'000 tonnes of nickel, including from scrap
811% NCA% 622% 523% 111%
0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000
2023
2029f
Primary nickel demand
'000 tonnes nickel
Stainless steel Batteries Other
CAGR: 6%
2025 | Fastmarkets | Battery Raw Materials Global Outlook Webinar – May 2025
300-series to lead stainless steel production growth
15
•Global crude stainless steel production
will rise by 3.4% annually between 2023-
2029
•This will be driven mostly by 300-series:
3.5% CAGR
•China – where scrap usage is low – to
drive this production growth. Production to
rise in Indonesia as new capacity is
commissioned (scrap use very low in
Indonesia)
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
2023 2029f
Crude stainless steel production
'000 tonnes
200-series 300-series Others
2025 | Fastmarkets | Battery Raw Materials Global Outlook Webinar – May 2025
Source: Fastmarkets long-term forecasts
Indonesia driving supply growth
16
•Indonesian mining industry central to
nickel supply growth
•Indonesia to lead refined supply
growth, with Chinese supply also
rising (due to Indonesian intermediate
feed)
•Nickel sulfate to lead refined supply
volume growth, followed by Class 2
•Global refined supply to grow at 4.6%
CAGR 2023-2029
-1,000
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
2023 2024f 2025f 2026f 2027f 2028f 2029f
Primary nickel production
'000 tonnes nickel
China Indonesia Others Disruptions Total
CAGR: 4.6%
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
2023 2029f
Primary nickel production
'000 tonnes nickel
Class 1 Class 2 Sulfates
2025 | Fastmarkets | Battery Raw Materials Global Outlook Webinar – May 2025
Source: Fastmarkets long-term forecasts
Oversupply to persist for longer
17
• 2024’s production cuts have been
insufficient to rebalance the market
•Market surplus increased in 2024, to
198kt
•Improvement in demand will lower
surplus in 2025 but still significant at
117kt
•Market rebalancing pushed back to
2027-2028
-200
-150
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
200
250
2022 2023 2024 2025f 2026f 2027f 2028f 2029f
Primary nickel market balance
'000 tonnes nickel
Market balance Previous balance
2025 | Fastmarkets | Battery Raw Materials Global Outlook Webinar – May 2025
Source: Fastmarkets long-term forecasts
18
Cobalt market
Rob Searle
Analyst, Battery Raw Materials
Fastmarkets
18
2025 | Fastmarkets | Battery Raw Materials Global Outlook Webinar – May 2025
DRC government imposes export ban – prices rally
in response
19
Pre-stabilising, Standard Grade metal prices rose 66%China imported 60kt contained cobalt in hydroxide from
the DRC
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
Cobalt standard grade, in-whs Rotterdam (low)
$/lb
0
5
10
15
20
25
China cobalt intermediates imports
kt Co
Cobalt hydroxide MHP
2025 | Fastmarkets | Battery Raw Materials Global Outlook Webinar – May 2025
Source: Fastmarkets long-term forecasts
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
2021 2022 2023 2024 2025f
Mine supply
kt Co
DRC Indonesia Americas
Africa (ex DRC) Australia Europe (incl Russia)
RoW
Mine supply growth forecast to slow in 2025
20
Strong Q1 2025 mined production in DRC to be followed by
adjustments
22% CAGR
growth Mined supply grew
significantly 2021-2024:
•Bullish copper prices owing to
tight concentrates market in
China
Mined supply growth to slow in
2025:
•Mining continues in the DRC
•Inventory at mine sites growing
•Growing Indonesian share
+9%
2025 | Fastmarkets | Battery Raw Materials Global Outlook Webinar – May 2025
Source: Fastmarkets long-term forecasts
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
Modelled cell costs - prismatic architecture
USD/kWh
NCM-333 NCM-523 NCM-811
Source: Fastmarkets battery cost index
Costs calculated for China, assuming a 10GWh battery factory operating at 100% utilisation rate
with a scrap rate of 5%. This figure illustrates the costs of manufacture solely, meaning profit,
warranty, insurance and freight have been excluded from the cost of manufacture.
DRC export ban rallies cobalt prices: places
upwards pressure on NCM cell costs
DRC export ban
announced
21
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
Standard grade cobalt metal price
$/lb
Cobalt standard grade, in-whs Rotterdam
STF pre-export ban
STF post-export ban
2025 | Fastmarkets | Battery Raw Materials Global Outlook Webinar – May 2025
Source: Fastmarkets long-term forecasts
Supply to outstrip demand despite DRC export ban
announcement
22
DRC export ban expected to tighten cobalt market in
2025 & 2026
Refinery feed constrained in 2025
Future scenarios:
•Export ban ends on June 22
•Extension to the ban
•Quotas from end of ban
Tighter market balance forecast
•Ample mined capacity to supply
market out to 2029
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
2023 2024 2025f 2026f 2027f 2028f 2029f
Balance & price forecast
kt Co (LHS), $/lb (RHS)
Balance Standard grade in-whs Rotterdam, low-end
2025 | Fastmarkets | Battery Raw Materials Global Outlook Webinar – May 2025
Source: Fastmarkets long-term forecasts
23
Graphite market
Amy Bennett
Principal Consultant
Fastmarkets
23
2025 | Fastmarkets | Battery Raw Materials Global Outlook Webinar – May 2025
Chinese graphite prices at lowest level since 2020
24
•Chinese graphite prices in decline since
mid-2022
•Natural graphite facing intense competition
from the synthetic graphite sector
•Europe enjoying price premiums, reflecting
geopolitical concerns and higher freight
rates, indicator of ex-China market premiums
•Prices below operating costs for new and
existing producers
•Current prices unsustainable, at or near
pricing floor
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
Flake 94%C, -100 mesh & spherical 99.95%C prices
$/tonne flake (LHS), $/tonne spherical (RHS)
flake fob China flake cif Europe spherical fob China
2025 | Fastmarkets | Battery Raw Materials Global Outlook Webinar – May 2025
Source: Fastmarkets long-term forecasts
Ex-China graphite miners struggling under
depressed prices
25
•Natural graphite supply outside of China
is centered in Africa – producers are
struggling amid persistently low pricing
•Largest supply cuts coming from
Mozambique and Madagascar
•New supply from Tanzania ramping up
and will add pressure to the market
•China has been the main market for
fine flakes from Africa
•Demand from North America and
Europe insufficient to replace the
Chinese market
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
450,000
2022 2023 2024 2025f
Ex-China graphite production 2022-2025f
tonnes
Brazil Canada Madagascar Mozambique Tanzania Others
Ex-China graphite supply down by
over 40% from 2022, ~ 175,000
tonnes
2025 | Fastmarkets | Battery Raw Materials Global Outlook Webinar – May 2025
Source: Fastmarkets long-term forecasts
US tariff actions hit Chinese graphite anodes
26
•June 2024: US Section 301 trade tariffs of
25% on synthetic anode imports from China
•Chinese anode suppliers are absorbing
the costs of the 301 tariffs
•March 2025: additional 20% tariff on
imports from China
•April 2025: additional 145% reciprocal
tariffs – now paused for 90 days and
replaced by temporary 10% tariff
•US tariffs are cumulative
•May 2025: duties payable on anode imports
from China at 55%
0%
25%
35%
45%
170%
55%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
140%
160%
180%
Pre-June
2024
June 2024 Feb 2025 Mar 2025 Apr 2025 May 2025
US tariffs on Chinese synthetic graphite AAM
2025 | Fastmarkets | Battery Raw Materials Global Outlook Webinar – May 2025
Source: Fastmarkets long-term forecasts
Market will continue to struggle with surplus supply
for the next several years
27
•Robust demand outlook: demand from battery
sector to rise to about 70% by 2035, from about
44% in 2025
•Unsustainably low prices will prompt additional
graphite production cuts, helping to rebalance
the market
•Premium pricing expected to develop to support
ESG-friendly, localized, diversified, ex-China
graphite supply
•Prices will bottom out in 2025, but will not return
to 2022 levels in the medium term
400
450
500
550
600
650
700
750
800
850
900
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
2023 2024 2025f 2026f 2027f 2028f 2029f
Total graphite battery balance vs price
'000 tonnes (LHS), $/tonne (RHS)
Balance
Flake 94%C, -100 mesh, fob China
Flake 94%C, -100 mesh, cif Europe
2025 | Fastmarkets | Battery Raw Materials Global Outlook Webinar – May 2025
Source: Fastmarkets long-term forecasts
28
Manganese market
Rob Searle
Analyst, Battery Raw Materials
Fastmarkets
28
2025 | Fastmarkets | Battery Raw Materials Global Outlook Webinar – May 2025
Manganese sulfate prices tracking manganese ore
market
29
•Exw China prices have stabilized
from the gains seen in mid-2024
•Tighter high-grade manganese
ore availability supported prices
rises in 2024
•Spot buying remains slow –
processing utilisation rates
equally low in China
•Uptick in NCM pCAM expected
from restocking requirements but
headwinds in NCM demand remain
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
Manganese sulfate & high-grade manganese ore prices
Yuan/ tonne (LHS), $/dmtu (RHS)
Manganese sulfate 32% Mn min, battery grade, exw mainland China
Manganese ore high grade index, cif Tianjin
2025 | Fastmarkets | Battery Raw Materials Global Outlook Webinar – May 2025
Source: Fastmarkets long-term forecasts
High-Mn chemistries to revolutionize global demand
30
Hi-Mn chemistry demand growth
CAGR 130% (2026–2029)
Current NCM demand growth
CAGR 10%
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
2023 2024 2025f 2026f 2027f 2028f 2029f
BEV & PHEV HP-Mn demand
kt Mn
PHEV NMC523 NMC622 NMC811 NMC Hi-Ni
NMC613 NMC Hi-Mn LMFP LMO Sodium Ion
2025 | Fastmarkets | Battery Raw Materials Global Outlook Webinar – May 2025
Source: Fastmarkets long-term forecasts
Supply to remain concentrated in China – but
global interest in high-Mn chemistries is growing
31
•China to remain global top supplier
of HP-Mn for the battery sector
•Supply to rise 2.6X in China
•Headwinds remain for ex-China
project development
•US announcements could support
pipeline of HPMSM projects
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
China Asia Europe Americas Africa
Regional HP-Mn supply
kt Mn
2024 2029f
2025 | Fastmarkets | Battery Raw Materials Global Outlook Webinar – May 2025
Source: Fastmarkets long-term forecasts
Ample installed capacity to limit short-term price
rises
32
Limited short-term upside in prices on ample
capacity in China
Price rises limited in short term:
•Structural deficit on destocking in 2024 –
restock to support price rises in 2025
•Low prices challenge economics of ex-
China capacity development
Market deficit forecast from 2030:
•Growth of high-manganese loading
chemistries in EV & ESS
• China’s installed capacity at full run rates
•Investment and construction of new
processing sites needs to begin by 2027
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
2023 2024 2025f 2026f 2027f 2028f 2029f
Balance & price forecast
kt Mn (LHS), Yuan/tonne (RHS)
Balance Manganese sulfate exw China
2025 | Fastmarkets | Battery Raw Materials Global Outlook Webinar – May 2025
Source: Fastmarkets long-term forecasts
3333
Recycling & black mass
Luke Sweeney
Senior Analyst, Battery Recycling & Black mass
Fastmarkets
2025 | Fastmarkets | Battery Raw Materials Global Outlook Webinar – May 2025
Scrap feedstock to evolve over time
34
2025f 2026f 2027f 2028f 2029f
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
2025f 2026f 2027f 2028f 2029f
Total scrap battery forecast
Million tonnes
Production scrap EoL
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
2025f 2026f 2027f 2028f 2029f
Total scrap, by battery chemistry
Million tonnes
NCM LFP LMFP LCO NCA LMO
•In 2025 most scrap will come from
gigafactory production
•By 2029 EoL scrap forecast to comprise
44% of recycling feedstock, up from 30% in
2025
•In 2025 NCM/NCA cathode chemistries are
forecast to comprise 53% of scrap in the
market
•Growth in LFP market share will have a
significant impact on long term profitability
2025 | Fastmarkets | Battery Raw Materials Global Outlook Webinar – May 2025
Source: Fastmarkets long-term forecasts
Excess demand from both shredders and refiners
35
-1,000
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
2023e 2024e 2025f 2026f 2027f 2028f 2029f
Black mass supply and demand balance
’000 tonnes
Black mass supply Balance Post-treatment demand
-2,000
-1,000
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
2023e 2024e 2025f 2026f 2027f 2028f 2029f
Scrap battery supply and demand balance
’000 tonnes
Scrap supply Balance Pre-processing demand
•Huge excess capacity exists in the battery
pre-processing industry – driven
competition and prices for scrap feedstock
•Scrap supply will continue to increase – but
shredders are forecast to remain
undersupplied
•An excess of black mass refining capacity
is also beginning to emerge that will place
upward pressure on payables
•Weak metal prices and a shortage of
feedstock have stalled investment in the
recycling industry
2025 | Fastmarkets | Battery Raw Materials Global Outlook Webinar – May 2025
Source: Fastmarkets long-term forecasts
Recycling becomes increasingly politicized
36
•China has announced the
publication of black mass
classifications – the first
globally
•Consensus that this is an
indication that China may
soon permit the import of
black mass
•The Modi government has a
vision of a self-reliant India,
including establishing a circular
battery supply chain
•India has issued a total ban on
black mass exports, to ensure
domestic recyclers have
sufficient feedstock
•The EU plans to classify
black mass as hazardous
waste
•This classification will
formally prevent all
exports of black mass to
non-OEDC countries
2025 | Fastmarkets | Battery Raw Materials Global Outlook Webinar – May 2025
Source: Fastmarkets long-term forecasts
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37
•Demand – remains robust, but downside risks shift to US and sodium battery breakthroughs capture attention
•Lithium – more downside room for prices this year, due to ongoing supply additions, leading to larger surpluses,
coupled with high inventory levels
•Nickel – battery industry will drive demand growth, but the market will struggle to rebalance from its currently
oversupplied fundamentals
•Cobalt – prices elevated on DRC export ban, to potentially be replaced by an export quota – market to remain
well supplied, but tighter, leading to higher average prices
•Graphite – intense market competition, prices below operating costs and unsustainable – likely to bottom this
year, supply surplus to persist, but low prices supportive of longer-term market rebalancing
•Manganese – weak demand in early 2025, but stronger mid-term outlook on high-manganese loading
chemistries
•Recycling – constrained feedstock supply that will evolve in source and composition, while policy impacts black
mass trading
Conclusion
2025 | Fastmarkets | Battery Raw Materials Global Outlook Webinar – May 2025
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•Dashboard of prices, news & short-
term forecasts
Battery raw materials prices, including the
benchmark lithium and cobalt price &
13 black mass prices, plus our 2-year
price forecasts for Li, Co, Ni, Mn, graphite
& black mass with independent analysis
•Long-term forecasts & Battery Cost
Index
Quarterly 10-year forecasts for Li, Co, Ni,
Mn, Cu, graphite, recycling/black mass
and ESS & monthly battery costs
•Consultancy
Bespoke consultancy projects
Fastmarkets products
38
2025 | Fastmarkets | Battery Raw Materials Global Outlook Webinar – May 2025
2025 | Fastmarkets | Battery Raw Materials Global Outlook Webinar – May 2025
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BRIGHT PURPLE
PRIMARY PALETTE
BRIGHT PURPLE ONLY FOR ACCENT
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paul.lusty@fastmarkets.com – battery raw materials
connor.watts@fastmarkets.com – battery & raw material demand
william.adams@fastmarkets.com – lithium market
olivier.masson@fastmarkets.com – nickel market
robert.searle@fastmarkets.com – cobalt & manganese market
abennett@fastmarkets.com – graphite & anode market
luke.sweeney@fastmarkets.com – battery recycling & black mass
Q&A
2025 | Fastmarkets | Battery Raw Materials Global Outlook Webinar – May 2025
fastmarkets.com
41
Thank you
2025 | Fastmarkets | Battery Raw Materials Global Outlook Webinar – May 2025
