Homebuilders and Real Estate Developers PDF Free Download
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Homebuilders and
Real Estate Developers
Jutamas Bunyawanichkul
Vice President
Thursday, 20 February 2025
20/02/2025 2
Contents
Market Recap
Rating Trend
Rated Issuers’
Performance
Industry Outlook
❖New launches declined by 27%in 2024
but remained higher than the absorption
rate, driving cumulative supply to peak
at THB935 billion by end 2024.
20/02/2025 2025 Economic and Industry Outlook 3
Market Recap : Landed Properties and Condominiums in BMA
Source: AREA
❖New condominium launches slightly
below absorption rate, resulting in
stable inventory level from 2023.
20/02/2025 4
Market Recap : Industry Risks
Source: TRIS Rating
Rejection Rate = Bank Rejection/(Bank Rejection + Transfer)
Bank rejection rate remained high in 2023-2024,
particularly in the mid-to-low-end segment.
The Household debt/GDP ratio has slightly
declined but remains high.
Source: Bank of Thailand (BOT) and NESDC
2025 Economic and Industry Outlook
20/02/2025 5
New mortgage loans declined by 16% y-o-y
in 9M2024.
NPLs rose to 3.9% as of Dec 2024, driven by
weaker debt serviceability and high interest rates.
Source: REIC
Source: BOT
2025 Economic and Industry Outlook
Market Recap : Industry Risks
20/02/2025 6
Downgrade →7 issuers
Downward outlook →1 issuer
Upward outlook →1 issuer
Issuer
Rating
Issuer
Rating
ANAN
BB+/Negative
NOBLE
BBB/Stable
AP
A/Stable
ORI
BBB+/Stable
ASW
BBB
-/Positive
PF
BB/Negative
BRI
BBB/Stable
PRIN
BBB
-/Stable
CI
BB/Stable
PS
BBB+/Stable
GOLD
A/Stable
QH
A
-/Stable
KUN
BB
-/Negative
SA
BB+/Stable
LALIN
BBB/Stable
SC
BBB+/Stable
LH
A/Stable
SENA
BBB
-/Stable
LPN
BBB
-/Stable
SIRI
BBB+/Stable
MJD
BB/Stable
SPALI
A/Stable
MK
BB
-/Stable
2025 Economic and Industry Outlook
Source: TRIS Rating
Rating Actions in 2024 to Feb 2025
20/02/2025 7
Rating Distribution and Outlook
❖In 2024,we downgraded 7 Issuers.
❖70%of rated developers are investment grade
(“BBB-”or higher); the rest are in the “BB” category.
Rating Outlook
As of 20 Feb 2025
2025 Economic and Industry Outlook
Source: TRIS Rating
20/02/2025 8
❖Developers expanded their presence in the provincial
areas during 2023-2024.
❖Developers adjusted their product portfolios in
response to evolving market demand and
conditions.
Developers’ Portfolio
2025 Economic and Industry Outlook
Source: TRIS Rating
20/02/2025 9
❖New launches declined by 21%in 2024
but still exceeded net presales.
❖As a result, the value of the remaining
units (built and unbuilt) continued to
rise, peaking at THB719 billion—nearly
five times the year's net presales.
Landed Property
2025 Economic and Industry Outlook
Source: TRIS Rating
Operating Performance of 23 Rated Developers
20/02/2025 10
❖Net presales aligned with new launches,
keeping the value of units available for sales
stable at THB320-THB330 billion from 2022
to 2024.
❖Net presales of condominium to foreign buyers
in 2024 reached the peak witnessed in 2018.
❖Foreign buyers constituted around 40%of total
condominium presales in 2024.
Condominium
2025 Economic and Industry Outlook
Source: TRIS Rating
Operating Performance of 23 Rated Developers
20/02/2025 11
❖Total backlog at the end of 2024
increased by 9% y-o-y, driven by 17%
growth in condominium backlog.
Total Ending Backlog
2025 Economic and Industry Outlook
Source: TRIS Rating
Operating Performance of 23 Rated Developers
Financial Performance of 23 Rated Developers
20/02/2025 12
Earnings and Profitability
❖Revenues remained flat compared
to 9M2023, with stable gross profit
margin at 34%.
❖However, EBITDA fell 8% y-o-y as
the EBITDA margin declined to
22%in 9M2024 from 25%in 2023.
Higher SG&A expenses related to
sales were the main culprit.
2025 Economic and Industry Outlook
Source: TRIS Rating
20/02/2025 13
Capital Structure
❖Average debt to capitalization ratio
increased substantially to 55%at the
end of 9M2024 from the level of 51%
at the end of 2022.
❖Sluggish demand in the residential
market has driven an increase in
cumulative inventory and a rise in
financial leverage.
2025 Economic and Industry Outlook
Source: TRIS Rating
Financial Performance of 23 Rated Developers
20/02/2025 14
Debt Maturity of 23 Rated Developers
❖Total debt obligations of 23 rated
developers at the end of 2024 stood at
THB462 billion, comprising 54% bonds
and 46% bank loans.
❖Of total THB222 billion debt obligations
due in 2025, 55% of which are bank
loans and 45% are bonds.
❖Total of THB101 billion bonds are due
in 2025 and THB90 billion in 2026.
Around 80% of the bonds were issued
by investment-grade issuers.
2025 Economic and Industry Outlook
Source: TRIS Rating
20/02/2025 15
Operating Performance
❖Revenue to grow by 2%-3% in 2025-2026 due to
growing condominium backlog.
❖EBITDA to remain flat or expand in a single-digit
range.
Profitability
❖Gross profit margin to remain at the range of
33%-34%in 2025-2026.
❖EBITDA margin to stay in the 20%-22% range.
❖Net profit margin to hover around 10%-12%.
Financial Projections
2025 Economic and Industry Outlook
Source: TRIS Rating
20/02/2025 16
Capital Structure
❖Expect debt to capitalization ratio to maintain
at around 55%in 2025-2026.
Cash Flow Protection
❖Debt/EBITDA ratio is unlikely to exceed 8 times
in 2025-2026.
2025 Economic and Industry Outlook
Source: TRIS Rating
Financial Projections
2025 Economic and Industry Outlook 17
Industry Outlook
20/02/2025
Developers remain cautious about land purchases and
new launches.
The overall market remains stagnant, awaiting new
catalysts. However, demand for condominiums is
expected to grow, driven by interest from foreign buyers.
Tailwinds: downward trend of interest rates, increasing
demand from foreign buyers, and government’s stimulus
packages.
Key challenges: weaker domestic demand, high household
debt, and elevated banks’ rejection rates.
Thank You
20/02/2025 2025 Economic and Industry Outlook 18
