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Mobile services in Western Europe: trends and forecasts 2019–2024
Mobile services in Western
Europe: trends and forecasts
2019–2024
Ibraheem Kasujee and Stefano Porto Bonacci
Mobile services in Western Europe: trends and forecasts 2019–2024
WHO S H O ULD READ THIS R E P O R T
This report provides commentary and trend analysis to support
our 5-year forecast for Western Europe (WE).
The report forecasts are informed by on-the-ground market
experts from our Research and Consulting divisions, and external
interviews. We also draw upon Analysys Mason’s Telecoms
Market Matrix, a comprehensive source of trusted quarterly data
that sizes European telecoms markets.
For the complete data set for the region, please see Analysys
Mason’s DataHub at www.analysysmason.com/DataHub.
2
About this report
▪Market intelligence, strategy and project managers at mobile operators
in Europe.
▪Regulatory bodies in Europe.
▪Financial institutions that directly invest in the telecoms sector in the
region, or advise others that do so.
▪Press and media bodies that need a foundation of knowledge of the
European mobile telecoms market.
GEOGRAPHICAL C O V ERAGE
Regions modelled:
▪Western Europe
Countries modelled individually:
▪Austria
▪Belgium
▪Denmark
▪Finland
▪France
▪Germany
▪Greece
▪Ireland
▪Italy
▪Netherlands
▪Norway
▪Portugal
▪Spain
▪Sweden
▪Switzerland
▪UK
KEY M E T RICS
Mobile connections:
▪Handset, mobile broadband1,
IoT2
▪Prepaid, contract
▪2G, 3G, 4G, 5G
▪Smartphone,
non-smartphone
Mobile revenue:
▪Service3, retail
▪Prepaid, contract
▪Handset, mobile broadband1,
IoT2
▪Handset voice, messaging, data
Mobile ARPU:
▪SIMs, handset
▪Prepaid, contract
▪Handset voice, data
Voice traffic:
•Outgoing minutes, MoU
1Includes USB modem, and mid- and large-screen, but not handset-based data.
2IoT connections and revenue figures include mobile services only.
3Service revenue is the sum of retail and wholesale revenue.
Our forecasts are refined throughout the year. This report presents the results
at the time of publication and will continue to give useful background
information about key drivers. However, we recommend that you always use
the Analysys Mason DataHub to view the latest data associated with this report.
Mobile services in Western Europe: trends and forecasts 2019–2024
5. Executive summary
6. Executive summary
7. Worldwide trends
8. Worldwide: mobile data demand will drive telecoms revenue growth in
most regions
9. Regional trends
10. Mobile revenue will remain flat due to declining revenue from legacy
services and intense competition in the mobile markets in most countries
in Western Europe
11. Blended ARPU will increase marginally, thanks to growing data usage and
customers’ migration to contract plans
12. Mobile penetration in WE will remain high, but it will decrease in most
countries during the forecast period
13. The evolution of ARPU will differ significantly between countries due to
different market conditions and competitive landscapes
14. Mobile service revenue will increase modestly over the forecast period;
the launch of 5G services is expected to have a limited impact on revenue
growth
15. Country-level trends
16. France: investments in 5G will lead to a considerable increase in the
number of mobile connections, but with limited impact on revenue
17. Germany: the 5G share of connections will reach 48% by the end of 2024
18. Italy: intense competition will result in a decline in the mobile service
revenue
19. Spain: saturation among middle-income and premium customers will
continue to drive a shift in strategy among operators
20. UK: service enrichment from 5G will create limited opportunities for
revenue growth
21. Forecast methodology and assumptions
22. Our forecast model is supported by sound market knowledge
23. Examples of forecast input drivers
24. About the authors and Analysys Mason
25. About the authors
26. Analysys Mason’s consulting and research are uniquely positioned
27. Research from Analysys Mason
28. Consulting from Analysys Mason
3
Contents
Mobile services in Western Europe: trends and forecasts 2019–2024
Figure 1: Telecoms and pay-TV retail revenue by type and total service revenue,
Western Europe, 2014–2024
Figure 2: Mobile service revenue in WE and worldwide, USD (2018) billion
Figure 3: Telecoms retail revenue by mobile service type, and mobile ARPU,
Western Europe, 2014–2024
Figure 4: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Western
Europe, 2014–2024
Figure 5: Mobile connections by type, Western Europe (million), 2014–2024
Figure 6: Mobile connections by generation, Western Europe (million), 2014–
2024
Figure 7: Mobile ARPU by type, Western Europe (EUR per month), 2014–2024
Figure 8: Contract share of mobile connections (excluding IoT), Western
Europe, 2014–2024
Figure 9: Mobile data traffic per connection, Western Europe (GB per month),
2014–2024
Figure 10a: Mobile penetration by country, Western Europe, 2014–2024
Figure 10b: Mobile penetration by country, Western Europe, 2014–2024
Figure 11a: Mobile ARPU by country, Western Europe, 2014–2024
Figure 11b: Mobile ARPU by country, Western Europe, 2014–2024
Figure 12: Mobile ARPU, France (EUR per month), 2014–2024
Figure 13: Mobile connections by type, France (million), 2014–2024
Figure 14: Mobile ARPU, Germany (EUR per month), 2014–2024
Figure 15: Mobile connections by type, Germany (million), 2014–2024
Figure 16: Mobile ARPU, Italy (EUR per month), 2014–2024
Figure 17: Mobile connections by type, Italy (million), 2014–2024
Figure 18: Mobile ARPU, Spain (EUR per month), 2014–2024
Figure 19: Mobile connections by type, Spain (million), 2014–2024
Figure 20: Mobile ARPU, UK (GBP per month), 2014–2024
Figure 21: Mobile connections by type, UK (million), 2014–2024
4
List of figures
Mobile services in Western Europe: trends and forecasts 2019–2024
Contents Executive summary
Worldwide trends
Regional trends
Country-level trends
France
Germany
Italy
Spain
UK
Forecast methodology and assumptions
About the authors and Analysys Mason
Mobile services in Western Europe: trends and forecasts 2019–2024
The total service revenue for telecoms will grow at a very
modest rate over the forecast period.
We expect that the total service revenue in Western Europe (WE)
will grow at a CAGR of 0.2% to reach EUR269 billion in 2024. The
economic outlook for the region is modest due to international
trade tensions and the economic uncertainties regarding Brexit.
This may affect household spending, but inflation in euro area is
expected to remain low.
Telecoms service revenue from the mobile segment will remain
almost flat. WE is highly saturated in terms of the number of
mobile connections, and intense price competition in several
countries will limit operators’ ability to increase the average
spending per user in order to sustain revenue growth.
Operators are following two main strategies to defend and
increase their mobile revenue. Some operators (such as Telenor
in Norway) are aiming to increase the lifetime value of their
existing subscriber base by repricing and upselling. A few
operators (such as Iliad in Italy) are instead offering very low-price
plans and are aiming to increase their subscriber base at the
expense of their competitors.
In addition, the launch of 5G services is only expected to have a
limited effect on the total market ARPU, partly due to a slower
take-up (compared to that of 4G services at the time of launch),
but also due to competitive pressure and limited incentives for
end users.
Figure 1: Telecoms and pay-TV retail revenue by type and total
service revenue, Western Europe, 2014–2024
6
Executive summary
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
Revenue (EUR billion)
Mobile handset Mobile broadband
Mobile IoT Fixed voice
Fixed broadband Specialist business services
Pay TV Service revenue
Source: Analysys Mason
Mobile services in Western Europe: trends and forecasts 2019–2024
Contents Executive summary
Worldwide trends
Regional trends
Country-level trends
France
Germany
Italy
Spain
UK
Forecast methodology and assumptions
About the authors and Analysys Mason
Mobile services in Western Europe: trends and forecasts 2019–2024
Data demand will continue to drive revenue growth in most
regions.
Mobile service revenue will continue to grow in all regions except
for developed Asia–Pacific (DVAP), but at different speeds. Sub-
Saharan Africa (SSA) will be the fastest growing region in terms of
mobile service revenue, with a CAGR of 1.91%, because it is the
only region that still has significant potential for total mobile user
base growth. Mobile service revenue will also grow considerably
in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) and Latin America (LATAM),
primarily due to increasing spending on handset data. Mobile
service revenue in Western Europe (WE) and North America (NA)
will stabilise during the forecast period because the saturated
user bases and competitive environments will hinder growth in
terms of ARPU and the number of connections.
Western Europe’s share of worldwide total mobile service
revenue will fall from 14.6% in 2019 to 14.1% in 2024.
The total mobile service revenue in Western Europe will be flat,
growing at a CAGR of just 0.04% during the forecast period.
Most markets in WE are saturated in terms of the number of
mobile connections, and many countries in the region face high
levels of competition. The launch of 5G services will have a
moderate impact on ARPU because 5G premium prospects will be
eroded by competition, resulting in a mostly flat ARPU trend.
Figure 2: Mobile service revenue in WE and worldwide, USD
(2018) billion
8
Worldwide: mobile data demand will drive telecoms revenue growth in most regions
Mobile services in Western Europe: trends and forecasts 2019–2024
Contents Executive summary
Worldwide trends
Regional trends
Country-level trends
France
Germany
Italy
Spain
UK
Forecast methodology and assumptions
About the authors and Analysys Mason
Mobile services in Western Europe: trends and forecasts 2019–2024
Figure 4: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type,
Western Europe, 2014–2024
Figure 3: Telecoms retail revenue by mobile service type, and
mobile ARPU, Western Europe, 2014–2024
10
Mobile revenue will remain flat due to declining revenue from legacy services and
intense competition in the mobile markets in most countries in Western Europe
Service type Retail revenue (EUR billion) CAGR
2018 2024 2014–2018 2018–2024
Mobile handset
88.7
91.1
0.8%
0.4%
Mobile broadband
5.35
4.14
–
4.5%
–
4.2%
Mobile IoT
0.74
1.68
21.2%
14.7%
Figure 5: Mobile connections by type, Western Europe (million),
2014–2024
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
ARPU (EUR per month)
Revenue (EUR billion)
Mobile voice Mobile messaging
Mobile handset data Mobile broadband
Mobile M2M Mobile ARPU
Source: Analysys Mason
551 564 581 597 618 642 673 715 771 836 912
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
Smartphones Basic phones Mobile broadband Mobile IoT
Source: Analysys Mason
Mobile services in Western Europe: trends and forecasts 2019–2024
Figure 6: Mobile connections by generation, Western Europe
(million), 2014–2024
Figure 8: Contract share of mobile connections (excluding IoT),
Western Europe, 2014–2024
Figure 7: Mobile ARPU by type, Western Europe (EUR per
month), 2014–2024
Figure 9: Mobile data traffic per connection, Western Europe
(GB per month), 2014–2024
Blended ARPU will increase marginally, thanks to growing data usage and
customers’ migration to contract plans
11
516 517 519 517 515 517 518 518 517 516 515
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
2G 3G 4G 5G
Source: Analysys Mason
16.5 16.7
7.3 7.4
23.5
20.7
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
Blended Prepaid Contract
Source: Analysys Mason
57.5% 59.4% 61.2% 63.3% 64.9% 66.3% 67.5% 68.6% 69.3% 70.0% 70.5%
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
Source: Analysys Mason
0.5 0.9 1.4 2.3 3.5 5.0 6.5
8.2
10.3
12.8
15.6
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
Source: Analysys Mason
Mobile services in Western Europe: trends and forecasts 2019–2024 12
Figure 10a: Mobile penetration by country, Western Europe,
2014–2024
Figure 10b: Mobile penetration by country, Western Europe,
2014–2024
Mobile penetration in WE will remain high, but it will decrease in most countries
during the forecast period
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
140%
160%
180%
200%
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
Percentage of population
Austria Belgium Denmark
Finland France Germany
Greece Ireland Western Europe
Source: Analysys Mason
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
140%
160%
180%
200%
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
Percentage of population
Italy Netherlands Norway
Portugal Spain Sweden
Switzerland UK Western Europe
Source: Analysys Mason
Mobile services in Western Europe: trends and forecasts 2019–2024 13
Figure 11a: Mobile ARPU by country, Western Europe, 2014–
2024
Figure 11b: Mobile ARPU by country, Western Europe, 2014–
2024
The evolution of ARPU will differ significantly between countries due to different
market conditions and competitive landscapes
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
ARPU (EUR per month)
Austria Belgium Denmark
Finland France Germany
Greece Ireland Western Europe
Source: Analysys Mason
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
ARPU (EUR per month)
Italy Netherlands Norway
Portugal Spain Sweden
Switzerland UK Western Europe
Source: Analysys Mason
Mobile services in Western Europe: trends and forecasts 2019–2024
Mobile service revenue in WE will grow slowly at a CAGR of
0.1% between 2018 and 2024.
The competitive pressure in most countries in WE will limit the
prospects of revenue growth throughout the forecast period. High
competition levels will be a major factor in the revenue decreases
in Sweden (where the five mobile network operators are focused
on increasing mobile data allowances and offering zero-rated
services to protect their market shares), Denmark and Italy (due
the disruptive operator Iliad), and are also likely to affect mobile
revenue in Norway (where the regulator fined Telenor for
uncompetitive conduct and set several measures to increase
competition in the market). Competition in Belgium is high, but it
is not expected to intensify further during the forecast period (the
government has been looking for a fourth entrant since 2018),
and revenue will decline at a moderate rate. 1&1 Drillisch’s
transition from MVNO to 5G-focused MNO may also limit mobile
revenue growth in Germany.
Mobile service revenue will only grow in a few countries in WE
during the forecast period. The migration of customers from
prepaid to contract plans will sustain the increase in mobile
revenue in Austria and Germany. Mobile revenue in the
Netherlands will return to growth during the forecast period after
years of steep decline. The consolidation of the market (due to
the merger between T-Mobile and Tele2 in January 2019) will
probably help to ease the pressure on prices in the long term.
5G services were launched in a few countries in 2019.
5G services are available in Austria, Finland, Germany, Ireland,
Italy, Spain, Switzerland and the UK as of December 2019. 5G
network coverage is limited to a few areas, and further roll-outs
are expected from 2020 onwards (apart from in Switzerland,
where the incumbent Swisscom is aiming to achieve nationwide
coverage by the end of 2019). Telia plans to deploy 5G in the
seven biggest cities in Finland by 2019, and hopes to expand its
geographical coverage from 2020. Both Vodafone and Telecom
Italia (TIM) launched 5G services in Italy in 2Q 2019, and aim to
cover 100 and 120 cities, respectively, by 2021. However, their
5G services will be available in fewer than 10 cities in 2019.
The take-up of 5G will mainly be supply-driven.
We expect that the adoption of 5G services in WE will grow more
slowly than that of 4G1because there are fewer incentives for
consumers to upgrade from 4G to 5G than from 3G to 4G.
Customers will perceive little difference between 4G and 5G (in
terms of download access speeds), and there are no applications
that compellingly need 5G performance. The take-up of 5G
services will mainly be governed by handset replacement cycles,
handset prices and the availability of 5G networks. The entry of
new MNOs may accelerate the take-up of 5G plans. Indeed, two
MVNOs in Italy and Germany secured 5G spectrum, and will
probably use their 5G propositions to gain market share.
14
Mobile service revenue will increase modestly over the forecast period; the launch
of 5G services is expected to have a limited impact on revenue growth
1Excluding some very early 4G deployments.
Mobile services in Western Europe: trends and forecasts 2019–2024
Contents Executive summary
Worldwide trends
Regional trends
Country-level trends
France
Germany
Italy
Spain
UK
Forecast methodology and assumptions
About the authors and Analysys Mason
Mobile services in Western Europe: trends and forecasts 2019–2024
20.0 19.2
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
Source: Analysys Mason
The total mobile service revenue will grow steadily because
competition in the mobile market has eased.
The entrance of Free to the mobile market in 2012 sparked fierce
competition in the mobile market. Free significantly undercut its
competitors and responses from the other MNOs put a downward
pressure on ARPU. Although we forecast that mobile ARPU will
continue to decrease over the forecast period, this decline will
ease as the price war subsides. Strong growth in the number of
mobile connections in France means that the overall mobile
service revenue will grow modestly from EUR16.9 billion at the
end of 2019 to EUR17.3 billion at the end of 2024.
The number of 4G mobile connections in France will grow in the
near future before falling due to the migration to 5G.
Bouygues, Orange and SFR covered 99% of the population with
their 4G networks as of 2Q 2019, and Iliad (Free) covers 94%.
Operators are required to cover the remainder of the French
territory with 4G technology by the end of 2022 as part of the
‘New Deal Mobile’, an agreement with the regulator that was
formalised in mid-2018.
The regulator launched a public 5G spectrum consultation in late
2018. 5G-suitable spectrum in the 3.4–3.8GHz band is expected
to be auctioned off in early 2020. Additional spectrum in the
26GHz band will be released at a later date. We forecast that the
5G share of connections in France will reach 65.4% by 2024.
16
France: investments in 5G will lead to a considerable increase in the
number of mobile connections, but with limited impact on revenue
Figure 12: Mobile ARPU, France (EUR per month), 2014–2024
Figure 13: Mobile connections by type, France (million), 2014–
2024
74 77 79 83 88 91 95 101 109 119 130
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
Smartphones Basic phones Mobile broadband Mobile IoT
Source: Analysys Mason
Mobile services in Western Europe: trends and forecasts 2019–2024
Total telecoms revenue will grow between 2019 and 2024
despite the slowdown of the German economy.
Total telecoms service revenue will continue to increase in the 5-
year period to 2024, despite an expected slowdown in the
economic growth in Germany. The growth in the total telecoms
service revenue will be driven by the mobile market, where the
ongoing migration of customers from prepaid to contract plans
will have a positive impact on total market ARPU.
Two operators launched 5G mobile services in 2019.
Vodafone introduced 5G services in July 2019. It aims to cover 25
cities by the end of 2019 and connections for 20 million
customers by 2021. Deutsche Telekom launched its 5G mobile
proposition in 5 cities in September 2019, and has a target to
connect at least 20 cities to its 5G network by the end of 2020.
Telefónica (O2) has not yet launched consumer 5G services (as of
December 2019); it is instead focused on industrial 5G services
(it is building a 5G private network in a Mercedes-Benz plant in
collaboration with Ericsson).
The MVNO 1&1 Drillisch secured some spectrum in the 5G
auction that took place in June 2019, but its frequencies will only
be available for commercial use from 2021. The operator aims to
become a fully converged service provider and it is expected to
launch both 5G mobile and 5G FWA services once the spectrum is
available.
17
Germany: the 5G share of connections will reach 48% by the end of 2024
Figure 14: Mobile ARPU, Germany (EUR per month), 2014–
2024
Figure 15: Mobile connections by type, Germany (million),
2014–2024
106 109 116 119 122 127 132 140 150 162 176
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
Smartphones Basic phones Mobile broadband Mobile IoT
Source: Analysys Mason
13.3
16.4
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
Source: Analysys Mason
Mobile services in Western Europe: trends and forecasts 2019–2024
The future development of the Italian mobile market relies on
the commercial strategy of the price-disruptive operator Iliad.
Price competition in the Italian mobile market is expected to
remain intense due to the challenger operator Iliad. The operator
offers a very attractive plan (EUR7.99 per month for 50GB of data
and unlimited minutes and text messages), and the tariff
remained unchanged throughout the 15-month period to
December 2019.
The Italian mobile market is expected to split into two segments;
TIM and Vodafone will pursue a value-led strategy targeting the
high-value end of the market (the two operators have been
introducing price increases and offering more-for-more by
upselling and/or repricing), and Wind Tre and Iliad will target the
low-cost segment. We expect that the total market mobile ARPU
will stabilise at around EUR11.5–12.0 during the forecast period
as a result of this market segmentation.
5G services were introduced in May 2019.
TIM and Vodafone commercially launched 5G services in June
2019. However, these services will only be available in a few cities
during 2019, and the roll-out of 5G is expected to accelerate from
2020 onwards. Operators signed commercial agreements to
deploy shared 5G network infrastructure to speed up and contain
the cost of the roll-out (TIM partnered with Vodafone in August
2019 and Wind Tre partnered with Fastweb in June 2019).
18
Italy: intense competition will result in a decline in the mobile service
revenue
Figure 16: Mobile ARPU, Italy (EUR per month), 2014–2024
Figure 17: Mobile connections by type, Italy (million), 2014–
2024
91 92 93 95 99 102 107 113 121 131 141
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
Smartphones Basic phones Mobile broadband Mobile IoT
Source: Analysys Mason
12.8 11.6
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
Source: Analysys Mason
Mobile services in Western Europe: trends and forecasts 2019–2024
55 55 56 58 61 63 66 71 76 84 92
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
Smartphones Basic phones Mobile broadband Mobile IoT
Source: Analysys Mason
17.9
17.0
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
Source: Analysys Mason
Competition in the value segment of the market will intensify.
Operators have increasingly started to shift their attention
towards the low-budget segment (especially in the mobile market)
because this is the one of the few segments of the market that
has untapped revenue potential.
MásMóvil was the first operator to increasingly target the low-
value end of the market with an aggressive commercial
proposition, and other operators then followed suit. We believe
that price competition will continue to grow in this market
segment during the forecast period, and operators will make use
of multi-brand strategies to insulate their more-premium brands.
Operators’ pricing strategies in the mobile market will focus on
transfer speeds instead of data allowances thanks to 5G.
Vodafone was the first operator to launch 5G mobile services in
June 2019 (in 15 cities); the remaining MNOs are expected to
launch services in 2020.
Vodafone is using download speeds to segment its (more-
premium) unlimited 5G data plans into different pricing tiers. We
believe that this speed-based pricing strategy will be replicated by
other operators and will become commonplace in the market.
19
Spain: saturation among middle-income and premium customers will
continue to drive a shift in strategy among operators
Figure 19: Mobile connections by type, Spain (million), 2014–
2024
Figure 18: Mobile ARPU, Spain (EUR per month), 2014–2024
Mobile services in Western Europe: trends and forecasts 2019–2024
UK: service enrichment from 5G will create limited opportunities for
revenue growth
Uncertainty around Brexit continues to dominate the political
and economic outlook.
The UK’s departure from the EU has been repeatedly deferred,
and the scheduled departure date is now 31 January 2020. We
expect that the result of the general election on 12 December
2019 will have little effect on the domestic telecoms market.
However, a ‘no deal’ Brexit may have a negative impact on the
business segment and could result in a labour shortage for
network building. Additionally, the regulator Ofcom will no longer
be obliged to follow European framework regulations, which may
reduce the regulatory burdens for operators.
The UK was one of the first countries in the world to launch 5G
services.
By October 2019, all four operators had switched on their 5G
networks, although the limited selection of compatible devices
means that the initial take-up has been slow. Coverage will
remain limited to certain cities until the spectrum auction for the
700MHz and 3.6–3.8GHz bands in early 2020. We expect that
the number of 5G connections will grow strongly during the
forecast period, and that over half of all subscribers will use 5G by
the end of 2023. However, we do not expect this to have a strong
positive impact on ARPU; instead, it will start to decline from
2021. The incremental improvement in user experience that 5G
offers over 4G is insufficient to justify a big increase in pricing.
Figure 20: Mobile ARPU, UK (GBP per month), 2014–2024
Figure 21: Mobile connections by type, UK (million), 2014–
2024
20
89 92 94 95 96 100 106 114 124 136 150
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
Smartphones Basic phones Mobile broadband Mobile IoT
Source: Analysys Mason
14.8
15.5
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
Source: Analysys Mason
Mobile services in Western Europe: trends and forecasts 2019–2024
Contents Executive summary
Worldwide trends
Regional trends
Country-level trends
France
Germany
Italy
Spain
UK
Forecast methodology and assumptions
About the authors and Analysys Mason
Mobile services in Western Europe: trends and forecasts 2019–2024
We have been analysing telecoms markets for more than 30
years and understand the dynamics of the telecoms service
market and structural differences between country markets.
All our forecasts are prepared by analysts who understand the
numbers and the markets. This is not a number-crunching
exercise by statisticians, but a clear statement of the expected
development of country markets expressed in numerical form.
The forecasts are intended to predict outcomes, rather than to
model market opportunity.
The key assumptions in our forecasts are the product of a
considered engagement with likely developments in particular
markets. As part of the process, we also solicit opinions on
market developments from major players.
We are happy to discuss our key assumptions in more detail with
clients.
Our forecast model is supported by sound market knowledge
Telecoms market
insights
▪Expected consumer
behaviour
▪Operators’ and vendors’
plans and projections
▪Expected regulatory
developments
Country comparisons
▪Knowledge of the
structural similarities
and differences
between markets
▪Benchmarking with
similar markets
Macroeconomics
▪Population, household and
workforce trends
▪GDP forecasts
Historical data output
▪Standardised set of connections,
revenue and traffic KPIs
▪Reconciled from a wide variety of
sources
Mobile services in Western Europe: trends and forecasts 2019–2024
Examples of forecast input drivers
23
Economy Consumer
behaviour
GDP
Inflation
Government
policies
OTT
substitution
Home Wi-Fi
usage
Technology
adoption
Demographics Competitive
environment
Operator
strategies
Population
Age
distribution
Labour force
participation
Pricing
Network
roll-out
Content
investment
Regulation Technology
developments
Roaming rates
Wholesale
obligations
Anti-monopoly
rules
LTE/5G launch
Smartphone
growth
FTTP
Mobile services in Western Europe: trends and forecasts 2019–2024
Contents Executive summary
Worldwide trends
Regional trends
Country-level trends
France
Germany
Italy
Spain
UK
Forecast methodology and assumptions
About the authors and Analysys Mason
Mobile services in Western Europe: trends and forecasts 2019–2024
Stefano Porto Bonacci (Research Analyst) is a member of the regional markets research team in London, contributing mainly to the Telecoms
Market Matrix, European Country Reports and Global Telecoms Data research programmes. He holds a BSc and an MSc in Economic and
Social Sciences from Bocconi University. He has experience as an analyst at an economic policy think-tank and at the European Commission.
About the authors
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Ibraheem Kasujee (Research Analyst) is a member of the regional markets research team in London, contributing primarily to the Telecoms
Market Matrix and European Country Reports research programmes. Ibraheem holds a BSc in Economics from the University of Warwick,
writing his dissertation on the impact of technology on sleep.
Mobile services in Western Europe: trends and forecasts 2019–2024
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facing clients, in addition to the wider effects of global forces.
We are future-focused and help clients understand the challenges
and opportunities that new technology brings.
RESEARCH
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services accessed by consumers and enterprises.
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technology delivering those services.
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Analysys Mason’s consulting services and research portfolio
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Mobile services in Western Europe: trends and forecasts 2019–2024
Research from Analysys Mason
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Mobile services in Western Europe: trends and forecasts 2019–2024
Consulting from Analysys Mason
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Mobile services in Western Europe: trends and forecasts 2019–2024
PUBLISHED BY ANALYSYS MASON LIMITED IN DECEMBER 2019
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