The Business of Jewelry Report | Q1 2025: Our Strategic Outlook for 2025 PDF Free Download
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THE BUSINESS OF JEWELRY REPORT | Q1 2025
Our Strategic
Outlook for 2025
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Contents
Executive Summary
Understanding the Diamond Dynamics: What’s Shaping
the Diamond Industry In 2025
Consolidation and Customer Connection: The Retail
Opportunity in 2025
From Promise to Practice: Will 2025 be the Year AI
Finally Takes Hold?
Hill & Co.’s 5 Quick Wins with AI: Start Small, Think Big
Jewelry’s New Geography: Global Supply Chains In
Transition
Dubai’s Rise: A New Jewelry World Order
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HELPING YOU SHAPE YOUR OWN FUTURE
To support you as you navigate these
opportunities and challenges, we’ve produced this
Special Report with a focus on actionable advice
and meaningful insights. While you’ll find
perspectives on likely industry shifts, our goal isn’t
just to predict the future—it’s to help you shape it.
Whether it’s understanding the evolving dynamics
of the diamond supply chain with insights from
Stanley Zale and Avi Krawitz, preparing for
potential geopolitical disruptions and trade tariffs,
or embracing AI tools to enhance your operations,
success this year will hinge on how well your
business can adapt, innovate, and execute.
2025 might not be about bold leaps or sweeping
transformations, although we expect to see new
market-leaders making their foray onto the global
stage. Instead, it will demand focus, resilience, and
a willingness to embrace incremental steps
forward. As we begin 2025, the jewelry and
diamond industries face a moment of recalibration.
Markets are evolving, consumer priorities are
shifting, and operational efficiency (no matter how
unsexy that might be) is more important than ever.
A clear strategic direction has never been more
critical.
But you’re not charting this course alone. We’re
here to equip you with the clarity and tools you
need to tackle 2025 with confidence. This Spring,
we’re excited to be unveiling our new technology
platform designed to empower your team to build
stronger relationships and drive success in the year
ahead.
This year is about creating momentum—not
standing still. It’s about playing offense, not
defense. Taking decisive action, not just reacting.
And it all starts right here, with the insights and
strategies in this Special Report. Let’s make 2025 a
year of meaningful progress—together.
Be well,
Elle
Founder & CEO
CHARTING A COURSE FOR 2025
Welcome to our Special Report in the ‘The
Business of Jewelry’ series, looking ahead to 2025.
Executive Summary
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Making predictions in January is always tricky. You
risk missing the obvious ones or you take the safe
route and echo the predictions of others. But as we
look ahead to 2025, one thing is clear: businesses
that embrace even the simplest forms of
automation, AI, and technology will be the ones to
unlock unprecedented growth and profitability.
Simultaneously, while technology is critical, we must
remember this fundamental truth: people do
business with people—not with logos, chatbots, or
impersonal systems. This has always been the case,
both within your organization and in your
relationships with buyers, vendors, and partners.
What makes this especially urgent in 2025 is the rise
of automation. Today, in a world where the email
reply you receive may never have been seen by, let
alone written by a human, the “human-touch” is a
competitive advantage you must leverage.
The key to thriving this year will be taking those
important steps (which may be your first) to use
technology intelligently to amplify your team’s
ability to connect in person and build trust. By
utilizing automation to free up your team’s time and
resources, you’ll allow them to focus on what
matters most: forging and deepening human
relationships, both online and in person.
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Stanley Zale
Principal Consultant at Hill & Co.,
with over 40 years of experience
in diamond manufacturing,
procurement, and supply chain
transparency
There are a few key things to watch. First, supply
chain transparency is becoming increasingly
important. Consumers expect more than
just a product; they want to know where it comes
from. This is especially true for natural diamonds,
where provenance and integrity matter more than
ever.
It won’t be good enough anymore for retailers and
wholesalers to say, “No one’s asking for
traceability.” They may not be asking you for it, but
consumers are definitely thinking about it, and
making their buying decisions with provenance in
mind.
As an industry, we must ensure that if we label a
diamond as natural, it truly is natural. That requires
rigorous due diligence throughout the supply
chain, especially as the other major trend for 2025
will continue to be the impact of lab-grown
diamonds. They’re starting to carve out a niche in
the market, but we may see a recalibration of the
industry back to natural diamonds as 2025
progresses.
Overall, I expect demand in 2025 to be in the
“modest growth” bracket again; it’s hard to see
anything more than that right now.
Understanding the Diamond Dynamics:
What’s Shaping the Diamond Industry In 2025
Avi Krawitz
Diamond Industry Expert, Consultant
and Content Creator, and Publisher of
The Diamond Press, Avi has deep
data driven insights and a human
understanding of the diamond trade
I agree that supply chain transparency will continue
to be a significant issue in 2025. Still, I expect it to
shift from risk management to storytelling,
with brands using origin stories to differentiate
natural diamonds from lab-grown alternatives.
Gen Z, in particular, values authenticity and
connection. They’re asking questions like: Where
does this diamond come from? What’s the impact
of my purchase?
One challenge is that the technology supporting
traceability—like blockchain and advanced
certification—is still fragmented. In 2025, we’ll see
greater collaboration among tech providers,
making these solutions more accessible and
effective for the entire industry.
One overlooked issue is the impact of the Ukraine
war. When the new U.S. administration comes in
with a possible change of approach, we could see
a sudden resolution to the conflict, so what
happens then? After years of grappling with
Russian diamond sanctions, our industry will face a
significant adjustment. Suddenly, the narrative
around traceability and Russian supply chains could
require a rethink.
I’d also add that on the wholesale side, the
continuing economic uncertainty in China will
continue to significantly influence the slowdown in
the whole market. We will see if that demand
returns in 2025 and how much extra demand the
Indian market can absorb.
UNDERSTANDING THE DIAMOND DYNAMICS
Q&A: INDUSTRY INSIGHTS WITH STANLEY ZALE AND AVI KRAWITZ
What are the most significant challenges and opportunities facing the
diamond industry in 2025?
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Stanley Zale
It depends on the market segment you’re looking
at. For the middle tier of the American market, I
think it will be tough for natural diamonds to
reclaim market share. In that segment—medium
sizes, below a carat, and mid-range color and
clarity—many consumers aren’t spending money
on a J SI2 natural diamond when they can buy a
two-carat lab-grown alternative for the same price.
However, natural diamonds have a better chance
of gaining traction at higher-end stores. These
retailers can effectively sell the story and value of
the brand behind a natural diamond, which
resonates strongly with their customers.
The challenge for natural diamonds is to embrace
their unique stories and heritage, particularly at the
premium end. Consumers are looking for more
than just size and sparkle—they’re looking for
meaning. That’s where natural diamonds have an
advantage over lab-grown diamonds.
One area where lab-grown diamonds could carve
out a niche is travel jewelry. Imagine owning a
stunning natural diamond ring for special occasions
and a lab-grown replica for vacations. This dual-
purpose approach could help lab-grown diamonds
coexist with natural ones.
That said, consolidation in the lab-grown space is
inevitable. Smaller players are struggling to
compete, and larger companies are already taking
over. This will likely stabilize the market, but it will
also shape how lab-grown diamonds are
positioned—luxury accessories or mass-market
commodities.
Avi Krawitz
Lab-grown diamonds are at an inflection point. On
one hand, wholesale prices are dropping due to
oversupply, but retail prices haven’t yet adjusted to
reflect this. This disconnect is unsustainable, and I
think we’ll see significant changes in 2025.
What’s interesting is how the lab-grown sector
itself is evolving. Major players like Pandora are
investing heavily in marketing, creating a distinct
identity for lab-grown products. This could redefine
how consumers perceive them—not as a
replacement for natural diamonds but as a
complementary option.
I hope to see a change in the retailers' attitude
toward natural diamonds. I think we’re reaching a
point where they realize that they need the natural
diamond industry to be sustained, and therefore,
they will pivot back to natural. We’re starting to see
some signs of that.
On the wholesale side, we’ve already seen a quick
learning curve. Initially, niche, higher-quality lab-
grown producers existed in places like Israel and
New York, but most of that has now shifted to
India, where mass production dominates. Over
time, production may become even more
automated, with a handful of major players
controlling the market.
Let’s talk about lab-grown diamonds. How do you see the market in 2025?
UNDERSTANDING THE DIAMOND DYNAMICS
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Disha Solanki - Chief Growth Strategist, Hill & Co.
FINDING STRATEGIC CLARITY
We’ve mentioned marketing for LGD, but
there’s been much discussion of the
diamond industry’s need to expand its
marketing efforts in 2025. What’s your take?
Stanley Zale
The industry needs a fresh approach. Gone are the
days when a single campaign like “A Diamond is
Forever” could define the narrative. Today,
marketing needs to be more targeted, more
personalized, and more digital.
This isn’t just about spending more; it’s about
spending smarter. Retailers need to understand
their audience segments and tailor their messaging
accordingly. For example, how you market to a
Gen Z consumer on TikTok vastly differs from how
you engage a high-net-worth individual shopping
for a bespoke piece.
Avi Krawitz
I agree. The industry has been slow to adapt to the
fragmented nature of modern marketing. Instead
of relying on generic campaigns, brands should
focus on niche strategies that speak directly to
their target demographics.
The challenge, of course, is funding. Collaborative
industry efforts, like those led by trade bodies, can
help, but individual brands must take responsibility
for their marketing. It’s about recognizing that
every business is now a media business.
Looking at the global landscape, what
geopolitical trends do you see impacting
the diamond industry in 2025?
Avi Krawitz
The geopolitical and market landscape for
diamonds is incredibly complex right now. The
ongoing Ukraine conflict and potential U.S. tariffs
will be a factor, but we’re seeing significant shifts
from a production standpoint. Global diamond
production is already at multi-year lows, excluding
the COVID anomaly. This is compounded by a
large inventory overhang at the mining level, which
makes it difficult for producers to plan their output
effectively.
Countries like Botswana and Angola are particularly
affected. For Botswana, the renegotiation of its
partnership with De Beers is a critical factor. Once
the new deal is signed, it will position the
Okavango Diamond Company as a major supplier
of rough diamonds, altering the market dynamics.
The challenge will be how closely Okavango and
De Beers align, especially when managing supply
and maintaining price stability.
The timing for Angola is less fortunate. They’re
increasing production capacity at a time when
supply is abundant and demand is sluggish. That
may change in the long term, but for now it could
present significant challenges.
Looking further ahead, Botswana could emerge as
a market influencer in the mold of De Beers,
leveraging Okavango’s growing role to shape
supply dynamics. But for now, the focus is on
navigating these transitional years, which will begin
in 2025.
Have you got one prediction for 2025 that
may surprise our audience?
Stanley Zale
This might be controversial but I think there’s a
good chance it will become known that a
prominent diamond/jewelry company has been
letting undisclosed lab grown diamonds get mixed
in with their natural diamonds.
Avi Krawitz
All eyes are still on Anglo American's potential sale
of De Beers but I expect a flurry of M&A activity in
2025, particularly in branded jewelry. And I think a
major luxury acquisition, akin to the LVMH-Tiffany
deal, could steal the spotlight.
UNDERSTANDING THE DIAMOND DYNAMICS
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CONSOLIDATION AND CUSTOMER CONNECTION
Consolidation and Customer Connection:
The Retail Opportunity in 2025
Retail consolidation will continue to reshape the
jewelry industry in 2025, with mergers and
acquisitions creating dominant players that benefit
from scale, resources, and broad market appeal.
For smaller, independent jewelers, this presents
significant challenges but also an opportunity to
redefine their position in a fragmented market.
THE CONSOLIDATION CHALLENGE
In 2024, deals like Richemont’s acquisition of
Vhernier emphasized our industry’s growing focus
on storytelling and craftsmanship. Yet, for the
17,000 independent retail jewelers in the U.S.
market alone—still responsible for 50% of jewelry
sales—competing with these consolidated giants
means finding innovative ways to stand out.
Independent jewelers thrive on trust and loyalty,
often deeply rooted in their communities and
offering a high-touch experience. Yet, as local
icons such as Ben Bridge expand to over 80 stores,
what do Independents need to do to double down
on what makes them unique to maintain their
connection and authenticity?
OPPORTUNITIES FOR INDEPENDENTS
Storytelling and Personalization
Building narratives around unique designs and
offering personalized service fosters deeper
customer connections. Localized strategies further
strengthen these bonds.
Transparency and Traceability
The market demands ethical practices and
accountability. Success requires leadership in
transparency—showing the journey from mine to
consumer and embedding sustainability as a core
brand value. This not only aligns with consumer
expectations but also builds trust and loyalty.
Innovation and Metrics
Independent jewelers who lean into tools like AI to
track KPIs and improve customer engagement will
outpace competitors by delivering tailored,
impactful experiences.
Retail remains the jewelry industry’s ultimate
touchpoint, where sales are made and relationships
are forged. Despite the consolidation trend,
independent jewelers can thrive by focusing on
what they do best: crafting authentic, personalized
experiences that mass-market players cannot
replicate.
As we look to 2025, the challenge is clear: evolve
and embrace innovation while staying true to your
strengths. The businesses that succeed will be
those that leverage their unique value to build
authentic connections and redefine customer
loyalty in a rapidly changing market.
"We’re seeing a growing
consumer interest in unique,
one-of-a-kind jewelry that
reflects individuality and
personality. This trend has
created opportunities for local
jewelers to develop bespoke pieces in their own
ateliers, showcasing exceptional stones, unique
cuts, and designs inspired by their local heritage
and surroundings.
Roots and heritage play a critical role in creating
new collections. By drawing from their territory’s
traditions and integrating elements of surprise,
local jewelers can deliver exclusivity while
responding to evolving consumer demands.
The success of small ateliers lies in their ability to
embrace regional craftsmanship, observe emerging
street style trends, and quickly adapt to customer
preferences. This balance—maintaining stylistic
identity while innovating creatively—becomes their
signature of refinement, distinguishing them from
the more “mass market” collections."
- Donatella Zappieri, Principal Consultant Europe
Hill & Co.
Retail remains the jewelry industry’s ultimate
touchpoint, where sales are made and relationships
are forged. Despite the consolidation trend,
independent jewelers can thrive by focusing on
what they do best: crafting authentic, personalized
experiences that mass-market players cannot
replicate.
As we look to 2025, the challenge is clear: evolve
and embrace innovation while staying true to your
strengths. The businesses that succeed will be
those that leverage their unique value to build
authentic connections and redefine customer
loyalty in a rapidly changing market.
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From Promise to Practice: Will 2025 be the
Year AI Finally Takes Hold?
For years, AI has been heralded as a game-changer
for business, yet for many companies, it remains an
underutilized tool. The reality? Businesses should
not begin by implementing sweeping
transformations. You should start with small, simple
steps that enhance everyday workflows. Let your
team experience, in small ways, the tangible
benefits of speedy task completion, to gain
confidence in the tool they must learn how to
leverage. In 2025, the key question isn’t how AI will
revolutionize our industry - it’s whether jewelry and
diamond businesses will finally start using it
effectively in practical, manageable ways.
THE CASE FOR STARTING SMALL
Simple steps—such as automating meeting notes,
streamlining scheduling, or prioritizing emails—can
immediately save time and reduce workload
without overwhelming your team. These small wins
lay the groundwork for broader adoption and
greater efficiency over time.
WHY AI EFFORTS HAVE STALLED
Many businesses have been hesitant to embrace AI
due to previous missteps. Overpromising tools—
like ineffective chatbots or overly generic
applications—have diminished trust in AI's
potential. But success doesn't require tackling
massive, complex projects right away. Instead, it
begins with small, accessible solutions that free up
your team’s time and allow them to focus on work
that drives meaningful returns.
LAYING THE GROUNDWORK
Unlocking AI’s potential does mean that businesses
must first address critical foundational challenges:
• Upgrade legacy systems to ensure your systems
and processes can integrate seamlessly with AI
tools
• Prioritize improving your data quality as clean,
structured data is vital for effective AI
• Align teams across departments to encourage
collaboration and support for AI initiatives
By addressing these basics, you can clear the path
for successful AI implementation in your business,
starting with simple workflows and scaling up as
confidence and expertise grow.
A new year gives you an opportunity to finally give
AI a concerted effort and move from theory to
action. Start small, test AI tools, and refine
processes step by step. The goal isn’t perfection—
it’s progress. Businesses that approach AI
strategically will find themselves building a smarter,
more efficient, and more profitable future.
FROM PROMISE TO PRACTICE
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2. CALENDAR MANAGEMENT
AI makes it so much easier to manage
your time. These apps reduce back-
and-forth scheduling and let AI
optimize your calendar.
• Reclaim: Integrates tasks and meetings,
prioritizes events, and adjusts schedules
automatically
• Fyxer: Suggests optimal times based on
patterns, avoiding conflicts across multiple
calendars
• Zoom Scheduling Tools: Offers streamlined
availability sharing and multi-person scheduling
options
HILL & CO.’s 5 QUICK WINS WITH AI
Hill & Co.’s 5 Quick Wins with AI: Start
Small, Think Big
Icons made by Freepik from www.flaticon.com
1. MEETING SUPPORT
I spend most of my days in meetings,
and manually capturing everything used
to eat up hours of my time. These AI
tools have dramatically improved my workflow.
• Zoom AI Companion: Summarizes meetings,
provides smart chapters, and tracks action items
• Avoma: Captures detailed notes, decisions, and
action items while enabling real-time team
collaboration
• Jamie: Works offline, generates executive
summaries, and is ideal for in-person meetings
• Fyxer: Joins virtual meetings to deliver instant
email summaries post-session
The most impactful AI applications begin with the basics—automating repetitive and low-leverage tasks and
giving your team more time to focus on their core expertise. Our Principal Consultant, Andrea Lucille Pooler,
has compiled her list of AI tools to help you to making a big difference in your business.
4. TASK MANAGEMENT
Stay on top of your to-do lists with AI-
powered task management tools. They
can help your team stay organized
without constant manual oversight.
• Reclaim: Splits larger tasks into manageable time
blocks and reschedules missed deadlines
• Todoist: Automatically breaks tasks into subtasks
and offers clear next steps
• Google Tasks: Converts emails into tasks and
syncs with your calendar for seamless workflow
management
3. EMAIL AUTOMATION AND WRITING
AI can now prioritize and sort incoming
emails, flag important ones, and even
suggest responses. This keeps your
team focused on critical tasks instead of
administrative clutter.
• Fyxer: Sorts and prioritizes emails, suggests
responses, and adapts to your writing style over
time
• Grammarly: Enhances clarity and tone while
speeding up drafting and email review processes
• Gemini: Additional AI writing optimization tool
to consider if you use Google’s suite of tools,
although you can only use it with Google
Workspace
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5. DATA ENTRY AND REPORTING
Automate repetitive tasks like data
entry and focus on the insights you can
generate, not the admin.
• Google Sheets: Google’s AI continues to
improve and make data entry more efficient.
Sheets now automates data entry using ‘Smart
Fill’ which predicts data based on your patterns,
flags errors, and uses natural language to create
summaries.
• Beautiful.AI: Quickly builds professional
presentations and reports using AI-generated
content
• Proposify: Saves hours of manual work by
creating proposals for our potential clients,
utilizing AI to generate detailed content, images,
and data for our decks
Icons made by Freepik from www.flaticon.com
ENHANCE HUMAN DECISION-MAKING
“Simple changes—like automating meeting notes or
scheduling - can make a big difference in your team’s
productivity. These tools aren't perfect, but they've
fundamentally changed how I work. They handle the
routine tasks so I can focus on what really matters—
serving our clients. The key to success is ensuring a
balance between automation and human oversight,
allowing AI to enhance rather than replace the power
of human decision-making.”
- Andrea Pooler, Principal Consultant Hill & Co.
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In 2025, shifting geopolitics, economic uncertainty,
and evolving trade dynamics are continuing to
reorder jewelry’s global supply chains. As new
trade hubs emerge and sourcing strategies adapt
to regional influences, the industry stands at a
crossroads, presenting both challenges to navigate
and opportunities to seize.
THE TRUMP TARIFFS AND CHINESE TRADE
Proposed new tariffs by President-elect Trump
could have a substantial impact on the jewelry
industry. Chinese imports, which already face tariffs
of 17% - 25%, may be subjected to even higher
penalties, further driving up costs for retailers and
consumers. During his campaign, President Trump
suggested additional tariffs ranging from 10% to as
high as 100% on all Chinese imports.
China is critical to global jewelry production, and
additional tariffs could force businesses to reassess
sourcing strategies. We have already seen a 43%
decline in jewelry, precious stones and metals
imports from China since the tariffs were originally
introduced in 2017/18. There were 1.6 million
pieces imported in 2023, compared to almost 3
million pieces in 2017.
On the demand side, a weaker Chinese economy
will also continue to weigh on the gold and
diamond market. The world’s largest consumer of
gold and, with Hong Kong, one of the largest
consumers of diamonds, China plays a critical role
in shaping global demand.
The continuation of economic uncertainty and
reduced consumer spending power in the country
in 2025 could lead to lower demand for luxury
items, affecting pricing and inventory levels
worldwide. This trend underscores the importance
of diversifying market strategies and tapping into
emerging markets to offset potential demand
shortfalls from China.
Jewelry’s New Geography: Global Supply
Chains in Transition
JEWELRY’S NEW GEOGRAPHY
“For the wholesale diamond market, the economic
uncertainty in China will continue to significantly
influence the slowdown in the whole market. We
will see if that demand returns in 2025 and how
much extra demand the Indian market can absorb.”
- Avi Krawitz, avikrawitz.com
THE NEARSHORING TREND: CLOSER PRODUCTION,
GREATER CONTROL
We expect brands to accelerate their reconfiguring
of supply chains to prioritize nearshoring,
increasingly shifting production closer to their
primary markets to counter rising tariffs,
geopolitical and supply chain risks.
• North America: U.S. brands are exploring
Mexico for cost-effective production.
• Europe: Turkey and Eastern Europe are
becoming hubs for European jewelers seeking
competitive labor markets and shorter lead
times.
Nearshoring not only reduces logistical
vulnerabilities but also strengthens oversight of
quality and sustainability practices, appealing to
conscious consumers.
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Shifting supply chains also means the
emergence of new global trading hubs.
Dubai recently surpassed London to
become the world’s second largest gold
trading center, driven by surging
demand from Asia, according to the
Dubai Multi Commodities Centre
(DMCC). The DMCC is predicting an
“Asian Century” for gold, envisioning an
economic corridor among BRICS
nations—Brazil, Russia, India, China, and
South Africa—where the UAE plays a
pivotal role.
Dubai is geographically at the heart of
key networks that connect the gold and
jewelry sector—namely the wider Gulf
region, Asia, Africa, and Europe—
creating opportunities for both import
and export business. We can see that in
the volume of gold, gems, and jewelry
that Dubai re-exports, which amounts to
around 85 percent of total imports.
Dubai's status is growing due to
government-backed initiatives, including
partnerships with major producers and a
commitment to ethical sourcing and
supply chain transparency. Additionally,
high-profile events, such as JGTD
(Jewellery, Gem & Technology in Dubai),
organized in conjunction with the stellar
Italian Exhibition Group and boasting the
powerful DMCC as key strategic partner,
have further enhanced its reputation as a
dynamic marketplace. As supply chains
evolve and geopolitical shifts reshape
the industry, Dubai’s role as an innovative
and influential jewelry trading hub is set
to grow even further in 2025.
Dubai’s Rise: A
New Jewelry
World Order
THE BRAND ADVANTAGE 12
How to Adapt to
the Changing
Global Landscape
In 2025
DIVERSIFY SOURCING
Reduce risk exposure to uncertain
markets such as China
EXPLORE NEARSHORING
Shorten supply chains and
improve sustainability
ENGAGE EMERGING HUBS
Build partnerships in Dubai and
other rising markets
ENHANCE TRANSPARENCY
Showcase ethical practices from
mine to market
STAY AGILE
Monitor trade policies and remain
flexible to navigate change
DUBAI’S RISE: A NEW JEWELRY WORLD ORDER 12
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THE CONSUMER CONNECTION 21
inquiry@hillandco.co
