...clean air zones
“My way of looking at these is that
when a local authority decides it
needs to do something, it announces
a clean air zone.
“And then the question comes:
‘Have we got the vehicles to go in
them?’ Well, not really, because we
haven’t enough of what we can get
and we haven’t got any of what we
can’t get.
“So what we’re going to do is just
price (non-compliant vehicles) out,
therefore the job’s done. However, if
you can afford to go in, the job’s not
done and all you get is a very
expensive clean air zone.
“I heard a lady from Royal Mail say
recently that if it drives across
London, one of her vans can be
fined, not fined, fined, fined, not fined
and (then) fined as they drive
through the boroughs.
“We now get low emission zones,
ultra-low emission zones, clean air
zones and zero emission zones.
“In my area of seven local
authorities, they’re not the same.
So which type of vehicle can go into
which one? What’s applicable? And is
it with or without charges?
“This is causing massive confusion,
especially for people who run
fleets.”
...Wireless
induction charging
“Dynamic induction charging is as
dead as hydrogen because the cost
of putting that in the roads, providing
the power to it and maintenance for
the profit that you will make is really
not going to happen.
“Some upmarket vehicles are going
to offer a pad on your drive which
you’ll be able to drive over and
charge if you park absolutely spot on.
“The thing to watch with this is the
vehicles have to be modified to do
this, or it’s an aftermarket fix
because the motor compartment
has to be raised to take the pads
underneath.
“Cars have something like an
eight-year cycle on their platform,
and the new cars being built now
like the Volkswagen ID aren’t being
built with this in mind.
“It needs a platform change, so
I don’t see (wireless charging) being
mass market for many, many
years.”
HERRON
ON....
97
fleetnews.co.uk ■ September 24 2020
WE CAN LEGISLATE
AS MUCH AS WE
WANT, BUT THE EVs
WILL GO WHERE THE
MANUFACTURERS
WILL MAKE THE
MOST MONEY
COLIN HERRON, ZERO CARBON FUTURES
“If that was to take place, there would be no
incentive for manufacturers to shift any EV to the
UK, or have any UK-made electric vehicles stay
there as we don’t control any of the vehicle
manufacturing capacity in this country.
“Where the limited supply of vehicles will go is
determined in Munich, Paris and Tokyo, etc. We
can legislate as much as we want, but the vehicles
will go where the manufacturers will make the
most money.
“I’ve told the Department for Transport this and
you tend to get a standard reply of ‘we are consid-
ering all aspects, blah, blah, blah’.
“If anyone is working with MPs or government,
they should be absolutely clear that any EV sold in
this country contributes to the EU targets for fleet
average.”
There is also an ‘arms race’ developing when it
comes to battery production, says Herron.
“There is a simple equation which seems to
confuse the hell out of the people who do the fore-
casting and set the targets, and I don’t understand
why,” he adds.
“And that is, basically, one car needs one battery.
You can make as many cars as you want, but if you
haven’t got the batteries they won’t go anywhere.
“Until recently, the total annual manufacturing
capacity of batteries in Europe was about 200,000,
so how were we ever going to hit the multi-million
targets? It was never going to happen, but people
still extrapolated sales figures and said we were
going to have one million EVs by 2020.”
Herron says Europe is now forecast to have
annual battery production equivalent to 348 giga-
watt hours in 2030.
“If you take an average BEV battery size of
50kWh and all of those batteries go into cars, none
for storage, buses, trucks or anything else, and
none of those vehicles are exported, then you are
looking at seven million vehicles,” he adds.
“Currently 16 million vehicles a year are made in
Europe. So we’re either going to have to import
around 10 million vehicles or we will have to accept
that not all new cars sold will be EVs, it’s just not
going to happen.”
A further issue to overcome is a geopolitical one.
“China is controlling most of the materials and
minerals going to the factories,” says Herron.
“Most of the battery plants have got some China
heritage. America is completely asleep on this and
Europe has just woken. Africa and other areas are
many, many years behind and India has got about
3,000 EVs now, so they are going to come on
stream soon with their demands.”
HYDROGEN IS ‘DEAD’
Hydrogen-powered fuel cell electric cars are not
part of the future, he adds. “Hydrogen, in my opinion
and the opinion of many others, is dead for cars,”
says Herron. “It is simply not going to happen.
“It could happen for some bus and long-distance
coaches. It is possibly going to happen for some
trains and heavy trucks, but it’s not going to happen
for passenger cars.
“This is for two simple reasons: it takes two-and-
a-half times the electricity to go a mile as a battery
electric car, and everybody except Hyundai and
Toyota has binned it.”
A further obstacle to overcome before the
widespread adoption of EVs is the charging
infrastructure and Herron says this stems from
there being no national plan for it.
“I hear a lot of people say there is not enough
infrastructure, and I always ask ‘how much do we
need?’,” he adds.
“No one has given me that answer because it’s
just too complicated.
“What is happening is we are carpet bombing the
UK with charge points.
“Nobody knows how many are being planned or
are going into the ground: the only time it is known
is when the DNO makes the connection and
somebody tells Zap-Map.
“In my region I’m watching publicly-funded rapid
chargers appear next to privately-funded rapid
chargers.
“I’ve seen Morrisons put them in and across the
road Shell stations are putting them in, and so on,
and because of this – and I measure the utilisation
of a lot of these big, urban areas – some of them
are used once or twice a day.
“Some of them are used twice a week. Bizarrely,
the more that go in, the less viable they are, the
more expensive they are to maintain.
“You are still talking around £25,000 to put one
in. The average power delivery to a car is between
9kWh and 14kWh, so they are delivering about
£2.50- to £3-worth of power a time to pay back the
cost of installation and maintenance: they are a big
drain on money.
“They will not survive unless there is consolida-
tion of the networks and there is an additional
package where people will get other things like
utility bills included.
“We are seeing the big companies vying for this
business. Car companies are trying to sell
electricity, petrol companies are trying to sell
electricity and the electricity companies are trying
to maintain their market selling electricity.
“So it’s all being shaken out now and it will
become clearer in the future.”
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