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100%
2568
•
Divergent) Uncertain)
•
•.. 67
•2.25
..
•
•
bps.
2
Executive Summary
Divergent) Uncertain)
2023 2024e2025f 2026f
World Output
3.3%
3.2% 3.3%
3.3%
Real GDP growth (percent change)
U.S.
Thailand
EM
2023 2024e 2025f 2026f
2.7%
2.8% 2.1%
2.9%
Euro Area
2023 2024e 2025f 2026f
1.0%
0.8% 1.4%
0.4%
China
Japan
2023 2024e 2025f 2026f
1.1%
-0.2% 0.8%
1.5%
2022 2023 2024 2025f
2.5%
1.9% 2.9%
2.5%
2023 2024e 2025f 2026f
4.2%
4.2% 4.3%
4.4%
•GDP
QoQ
•Fed ffr
2023 2024 2025f 2026f
4.6%
3.0% 4.5%
5.2% 5.0%
: IMF 17 8
8
Source: IMF (WEO Jan 25), NESDC (GDP 3 2024BOT (GDP 2025f)
•GDP
0.0QoQ 0.4%
•ECB
..
• (NBS)
GDP
67
5.0%
•PBOC LPR
3.1% 3.6%
•
•BOJ
4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
-2
0
2
4
6
8
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Jan
2010 Jan
2025
%
2.6 ECBs target (Below but Close to 2%) BOE 2% target
Fed 2% target
Source: CEIC, FRED, TRADINGECONOMICS, INVESTING.com
%
1.3
BOT 2% target (a Range of 1% to 3%)
Jan
2010 Jan
2025
2.5
Jan
2010 Jan
2025
2.5
%
0.1
Approximately 3% target 3.6
BOJ 2% target
(%YoY)
3.0
(Dec)
(Dec)
(Dec) (Dec)
(Jan) (Jan)
(Jan)
U.S. Euro Area U.K.
CPI Inflation PCE Inflation
China Japan Thailand
Disinflation)
..3.0
(BOJ)ECB) (PBOC)
FED)
5
7
57.9
20
50
80
Jan-22
Apr-22
Jul-22
Oct-22
Jan-23
Apr-23
Jul-23
Oct-23
Jan-24
Apr-24
Jul-24
Oct-24
CCI Current Next 6 months
4
3
High Season
151.9
126.7
113.1
116.7
100
120
140
160
180
Dec-21
Mar-22
Jun-22
Sep-22
Dec-22
Mar-23
Jun-23
Sep-23
Dec-23
Mar-24
Jun-24
Sep-24
Dec-24
PCI)
(PCI)
: Index sa
()
-1.0
1.9
0.4 0.8
%MoM %YoY
-0.6
1.9
-0.7
0.8
%MoM %YoY
( / )
-1.4
-0.5
0.3
1.4
%MoM %YoY
•
-0.8 -0.6
0.4 0.6
%MoM %YoY
( /)
(CCI)
: Index
: Growth (%MoM, %YoY)
Nov-24 Dec-24
•.. 57.9
56.9
8
Source: BOT, UTCC
•..
0.3 (%MoM)
22.0
(%YoY)
•GDP -2.2 2567
2568
-40.0
-30.0
-20.0
-10.0
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
Jan-24
Feb-24
Mar-24
Apr-24
May-24
Jun-24
Jul-24
Aug-24
Sep-24
Oct-24
Nov-24
Dec-24
: %YoY
2567 ....... ........
Private Investment
Index: PII -1.8 -2.3 7.2 -3.2 -1.1 3.5 -2.7 0.3
Construction Areas
Permitted -4.7 -3.6 -1.0 -1.0 -4.1 2.3 -1.5 -2.0
Construction Material
Sales Index -0.3 4.4 -1.9 1.4 2.0 4.1 -7.5 1.0
Import of Capital
Goods -3.5 -5.6 12.8 -5.2 4.8 6.4 -4.3 0.7
Newly Registered Motor
Vehicles -5.1 -4.9 14.5 -
13.1
-1.0 2.1 -5.2 2.2
9
()
: %MoM
Source: BOT
..67
23,471.7
24,316.9
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
Dec-21
Mar-22
Jun-22
Sep-22
Dec-22
Mar-23
Jun-23
Sep-23
Dec-23
Mar-24
Jun-24
Sep-24
Dec-24
()
: .
%YoY -7.2% 43.5% 22.5% 10.3% 20.1% -2.6%
%MoM -11.1% 17.9% -4.6% 1.6% -8.0% -5.3%
Dec-24
18.3
11.7
7.8
4.1
4.1
54.0
Dec-24
(%MoM)
Dec-24
(%YoY)
2024
(%YoY)
U.S.
-6.2 17.5 13.7
EU (27)
5.8 21.8 9.1
China
-0.5 15.0 3.1
Japan
-14.3 0.6 -5.3
ASEAN (5)
-8.8 0.2 -0.8
.. 67 /
10
2567
: (%)
Source: BOT, TPSO, CEIC
****
1 10
* 25%
-1
**
10%
***
25%
68
•
()
•
92.9
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
Dec-21
Feb-22
Apr-22
Jun-22
Aug-22
Oct-22
Dec-22
Feb-23
Apr-23
Jun-23
Aug-23
Oct-23
Dec-23
Feb-24
Apr-24
Jun-24
Aug-24
Oct-24
Dec-24
148.0
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
170
Dec-21
Feb-22
Apr-22
Jun-22
Aug-22
Oct-22
Dec-22
Feb-23
Apr-23
Jun-23
Aug-23
Oct-23
Dec-23
Feb-24
Apr-24
Jun-24
Aug-24
Oct-24
Dec-24
0.3 (%MoM)
3
(Index sa)(Index sa)
11
Source: OAE, OIE
*
-77.6% **
-75.0%
*
**
+2.6%
-6.6%
+14.2%
+12.5%
-6.1%
..
134.4
103.7
137.0
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
Dec-21
Feb-22
Apr-22
Jun-22
Aug-22
Oct-22
Dec-22
Feb-23
Apr-23
Jun-23
Aug-23
Oct-23
Dec-23
Feb-24
Apr-24
Jun-24
Aug-24
Oct-24
Dec-24
SPI
2.3
7.3 (%MoM)
Tourism-related industries
207.2
100
150
200
250
Dec-21
Jun-22
Dec-22
Jun-23
Dec-23
Jun-24
Dec-24
130.3
50
100
150
Dec-21
Jun-22
Dec-22
Jun-23
Dec-23
Jun-24
Dec-24
163.4
0
50
100
150
200
Dec-21
Jun-22
Dec-22
Jun-23
Dec-23
Jun-24
Dec-24
249.8
-100
0
100
200
300
Dec-21
Jun-22
Dec-22
Jun-23
Dec-23
Jun-24
Dec-24
: Index sa, %MoM
12
Source: BOT
79.8
60
70
80
Jan Dec
2024
(+1.5%)
(+0.2%)
(+1.0%)
(+3.8%)
1,314,981
1,641,940
2023 2024
2567 5
: , %YoY
2567 35.5 28.2 2566
25.9 (%YoY) 90
Soft power
3,627,440
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
3,500,000
4,000,000
Dec-21
Feb-22
Apr-22
Jun-22
Aug-22
Oct-22
Dec-22
Feb-23
Apr-23
Jun-23
Aug-23
Oct-23
Dec-23
Feb-24
Apr-24
Jun-24
Aug-24
Oct-24
Dec-24
: 2568F
39.5
2567
35.5
2566
28.2
2565
11.1
4 2,129,149 1,868,945 1,745,327
+91.2% +7.0% +30.7% +12.6% +17.7%
13
139,159
172,026
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Y2023 Y2024
: +25%
Source: BOTMOTS, CEIC
12345
0.4
8 0.6 2567
1.32
0.83
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
Jan-19
Jul-19
Jan-20
Jul-20
Jan-21
Jul-21
Jan-22
Jul-22
Jan-23
Jul-23
Jan-24
Jul-24
Jan-25
2566 2567 2568*
1.3 0.6 1.0
1.2 0.4 1.1
•
•
•
: %
*
14
Source: BOT, MOC
Oct 24 Nov 24 Dec 24 Jan 25 2025F
Fed Fund
Rate (%) 4.7500 4.50475 4.25450 4.25450 3.75-4.00*
Thai Policy
Rate (%) 2.25 2.25 2.25 2.25 1.75*
Source: CME FedWatch Tool, Fed Dotplot
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
Jan-10 Jan-15 Jan-20 Jan-25
Fed fund rate (*Upper limit) TH Policy Rate
)
.
)
) Debt
Deleveraging 3/67
Trump 2.0
: %
•
•FED
Dotplot
*
Hawkish
•
Policy space
•
Benefit)
.
Source: BOT, FED, CME Group, MOC, NESDC
2.25
(Jan)
(Jan)
4.25-4.50
15
Dec
24 Jan
25
108.6
34.2 34.3
107.2
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
28
30
32
34
36
38
40
31-Jan-23
31-Mar-23
31-May-23
31-Jul-23
30-Sep-23
30-Nov-23
31-Jan-24
31-Mar-24
31-May-24
31-Jul-24
30-Sep-24
30-Nov-24
31-Jan-25
THB/USD DXY (RHS)
Source: BOT, CEIC
DXY Index
17
.8 2-12 bps.
Fed
SET index 81,314.50 -6.1
1,200
1,300
1,400
1,500
1,600
1,700
1,800
Jan-22
Apr-22
Jul-22
Oct-22
Jan-23
Apr-23
Jul-23
Oct-23
Jan-24
Apr-24
Jul-24
Oct-24
Jan-25
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
Jan-22
Apr-22
Jul-22
Oct-22
Jan-23
Apr-23
Jul-23
Oct-23
Jan-24
Apr-24
Jul-24
Oct-24
Jan-25
Policy Rate TH 3 M TH 6 M TH 1 Y TH 2 Y TH 10 Y
SET index
THM,1.93
TH6M ,1.96
TH1Y,1.99
TH2Y, 2.04
TH10Y, 2.35
(%)
1,314.50
Source: ThaiBMA, SET, CEIC 18
