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2024 Update What's Hot / What's Not in Equipment Leasing and Finance PDF Free Download

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2024 Update What's Hot / What's Not in Equipment Leasing and Finance PDF Free Download

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2024 Update What’s Hot / What’s Not
in Equipment Leasing and Finance
Carl C. Chrappa, A.S.A, M.R.I.C.S., I.F.A.
and Gregory Chrappa, A.S.A.
The Alta Group, LLC
ELFA What’s Hot / What’s Not Update Webinar
September 5, 2024
Update Panel:
Carl C. Chrappa, The Alta Group, LLC, Senior Managing Director - A.S.A, M.R.I.C.S.,
I.F.A. – most types of capital equipment, national / international
Ben Steller, Stonebriar Commercial Finance, LLC, Vice President – A.S.A. – general
equipment
Rob Herb, DLL, Head of Global Asset Management, Life Tech Global Business Unit -
A.S.A. (Member MTS Education Committee) – healthcare, workplace, tech,
sustainability & circularity for capital equipment
Wade Whitenburg, Ritchie Bros Global – transportation, construction, material
handling, forestry, agriculture, mining, energy, utility industries
Gregory Chrappa, The Alta Group, LLC, Managing Director - A.S.A. - transportation,
construction, aircraft, general capital equipment
•Please feel free to download the ‘Hot/Not’ article from the Knowledge Hub of the ELFA website, url
-https://www.elfaonline.org/knowledge-hub/most-popular-resources below the MLFI.
OUTLINE
Results of Hot / Not Survey*
Revised 2024 Economic Overview
Review Update of each Equipment Market Surveyed
COMPOSITION OF RESPONDENTS TO 2024 SURVEY
21%
12%
12%
30%
14%
11%
$0-$50MM $50-$100MM $100-$500MM
$500MM-$1BN $1-$3 BN >$3 BN
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
Construction
Machine Tools
Medical
Hi-Tech/Computer
Marine/Intercoastal
Rail
Aircraft
Oil/Gas/Energy
Plastic
Containers/Chassis
Automobiles
Telecom
Truck/Trailer
FF&E
Printing
256710 14 15 16 16 20 21 25 25 26 30
FINAL OVERALL SCORE AND RANKING
LOWEST SCORE BEING THE BEST
Chart V
Equipment Type 2024
Score
2023
Score Difference
CONSTRUCTION 2 2 +0
MACHINE TOOLS 5 4 -1
MEDICAL 6 7 +1
HI TECH/COMPUTER 710 +3
MARINE/INTERCOASTAL 10 12 +2
RAIL 14 21 +7
AIRCRAFT 15 16 +1
OIL/GAS/ENERGY 16 22 +6
PLASTICS 16 15 -1
CONTAINERS/CHASSIS 20 16 -4
AUTOMOBILES 21 23 -4
TELECOM 25 27 +2
TRUCK/TRAILER 25 7 -18
FF&E 26 27 +1
PRINTING 30 30 +0
Equipment Survey Results
2024 versus 2023 -- OVERALL RANKING SCORES
So, What’s Around the Corner?
GDP* “On to a soft landing…”
Year GDP Year GDP
2023 +2.5% 2015 +2.7%
2022 +1.9% 2014 +2.3%
2021 +5.9% 2013 +1.8%
2020 -3.4% 2012 +2.3%
2019 +2.3% 2011 +1.5%
2018 +2.9% 2010 +2.7%
2017 +2.3% 2009 -2.6%
2016 +1.7% 2008 +0.1%
9/4/2024
* Compound Annual Growth Rate quarter-over-quarter
2024 estimated GDP: +--2-.-4--%--+2.5%
Year YoY %
2025 F
2024 F
2023 -0.1%
2022 +5.2%
2021 +10.3%
BUSINESS FIXED INVESTMENT
(Equipment)
9
9/4/2024
+--4-.-1--%-+4.6%
+-0--.-4-%-- +2.5%
109/4/2024 Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis/ WF/BMO/Livingston Report
CPI* (Annual)
2025 F +2.3% F2018 +2.4%
2024 F -+-2--.-7--%- +2.9 %2017 +2.1%
2023 +4.1% 2016 +1.3%
2022 +8.0% 2015 +0.1%
2021 +4.7% 2014 +1.6%
2020 +1.2% 2013 +1.5%
2019 +1.8% 2012 +2.1%
CONSUMER INCOME
11
Disposable Income
Source:
Source: WF/BMO/Livingston Report/FRED
Year Real Nominal Year Real Nominal
2024 F -+
--
1
--
.8
--%
- +2.9 % -+-3--.-8-%-- +4. 4% 2019 +2.3% +4.1%
2023 P +4.2% +5.2% 2018 +4.0% +5.6%
2022 -6.0% +2.0% 2017 +2.6% +4.4%
2021 +1.9% +7.4% 2016 +1.4% +2.4%
2020 +6.2% +6.5% 2015 +4.2% +5.0%
SAVINGS RATE
12
9/4/2024
Source: FRED, TD
Year Rate % Year Rate %
2025 F -4--.-9-%--
3.5%
2022 3.2%
2024 F -4--.-2-%--
3.5%
2021 12.0%
2023 4.4% 1Q21 20.4%
INVESTMENTS
2015 2017 2018 2021 2022 2023 08/20/24
o Dow Jones
(Industrials)
-2.2%
17,425
+25.1%
24,719
-5.6%
23,327
+18.9%
36,398
-8.9%
33,147
+13.7%
37,689
+8.5%
40,896
o S&P 500 -1.0%
2,043
+19.4%
2,673
-6.2%
2,506
+27.4%
4,786
-19.8%
3,840
+24.2%
4,769
+17.6%
5,608
o NASDAQ +5.7%
5,007
+28.2%
6,903
-3.9%
6,635
+22.5%
15,781
-33.7%
10,466
+43.4%
15,011
+19.1%
17,877
o Russell 2000
9/4/2024
-5.7%
1,135
Source: Wall
+13.1%
1,535
Street
Journal
-12.2%
1,348
+13.8%
2,246
-21.6%
1,761
+15.18%
2,027
+6.9%
2,168
13
COMMODITIES (JAN. 1)
14
2024 (8) 2024 (1) 2023 (1) 2021 (9) 2020 (9) 2015 2011 2009 2003
Scrap Iron
($ per ton) $350 $350 $360 $450 $235 $290 $360 $335 $61
Gold
($ per oz.) $2,501 $2,078 $1,812 $1,780 $1,940 $1,184 $1,421 $918 $350
Aluminum
($ per lb.) $1.15 $1.05 $1.07 $1.30 $0.99 $0.83 $1.11 $0.68 $0.63
Copper
($ per lb.) $4.17 $3.88 $3.81 $4.26 $2.96 $2.84 $4.44 $3.57 $0.73
Oil
($ per bbl) $74.37 $71.65 $78.40 $74.80 $39.77 $53.27 $91.38 $91.77 $30
Natural Gas
($ per mmbtu) $2.24 $2.51 $4.48 $5.05 $2.58 $2.89 $4.41 $8.30 $4.88
HRC
($ per ton) $680 $1,100 $700 $1,952 $540 $720 $780 $600 $295
GLOBAL ECONOMIES
2007 2009 2011 2019 2020 2021 2023 P 2023 R
Global +5.2% -1.1% +4.0% +2.8% -3.3% +5.5% +3.1% +3.2%
U.S.A. +2.1% -2.4% +1.7% +2.2% -3.5% +5.9% +2.5% +2.5%
Japan +1.9% -5.3% -0.7% +0.3% -4.8% +2.1% +1.8% +0.8%
Euro Area +2.6% -3.9% +1.5% +1.3% -6.6% +5.0% +0.6% +1.0%
Germany +2.6% -4.7% +3.0% +06% -4.9% +2.7% -0.2% +0.3%
China +11.5% +8.3% +9.2% +5.8% +2.3% +7.9% +5.2% +4.7%
Britain +3.1% -4.7% +0.9% +1.4% -9.9% +6.7% +0.2% +0.6%
France +1.9% -2.2% +1.5% +1.5% -8.2% +6.7% +0.8% +1.2%
Italy +1.7% -4.7% +0.5% +0.3% -8.9% +6.3% +0.7% +1.0%
Spain +3.7% -3.6% +0.6% +2.0% -11.0% +4.4% +2.3% +2.4%
Canada +2.5% -2.5% +2.3% +1.9% -5.3% +5.0% +1.1% +1.1%
15
9/4/2024
Sources: The Conference Board, IMF, World Bank, Economist
N.A.Construction Equipment Unit Sales
9/4/2024
265
250
295
310
340
300 F
295 F
300 F
180
230
280
330
380
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024F 2025F 2026F
Source: International Construction
17
thousand
s
189/4/2024
Revenue Growth for 2023: +8.6%
Estimated Revenue Growth for 2024: +8.9%*
Rental Utilization Rate:
2023 62%
2022 68%
2021 66%
* American Rental Association
Source: Baird Research
Rental Construction Equipment
US MACHINE TOOL ORDERS (IN $BILLION)
20
4.20
2.67 2.16
2.90 3.00
3.24
4.20
4.40
4.30
1.10
3.31
5.08 5.21
4.93
5.08
4.18 4.01
4.20
5.48
4.54
3.87
5.90
4.94
5.54 5.01 F
$7
$6
$5
$4
$3
$2
$1
$0
2024F
2023
2022
2021
2020
2019
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
USED MACHINE TOOL SALES
5 yr old Haas VMC
Auction Price Change from ‘09
2009 $28,000 --
2011 $50,000 +79%
2013 $52,000 +86%
2014 $54,000 +93%
2020 $53,000 +89%
2022 $58,000 +107%
2023 $56,000 +100%
2024
$50,000 +79%
21
WORLDWIDE NON-TABLET PC SALES
in Millions of Units
24
209
175
266
229
302
306
348
364
352
315
308
276
262
258
259
261
297
345
284
242
254 F
153
150
200
250
300
350
400
2024 F
2023
2022
2021
2020
2019
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
millions
Source: IDC, Gartner Group
GLOBAL SEMICONDUCTOR SALES
in Billions of US Dollars
(ICs and OSDs)
141
143 169
213
227.5
247 255.6
248.6226.3
298.3
299.5
291.6
305.6
335.8
335 364
445.2 492.6
444.5
555.9
504.1
574.1
526.8
605 F
687.4 F
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
2025 F
2024 F
2023
2022
2021
2020
2019
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
$ billions
Source: WSTS, SIA
30
20.4 22.1
35.3
33.9
41.9 42.8
29.5 25.3
45.5
36.7 36.9
31.6 29.3 36.4
41.2
56.6
64.5
59.8
71.2
102.5
107.4
106.3
109.7 F
128.1 F
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
2025 F
2024 F
2023
2022
2021
2020
2019
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
$ billions
Source: SEMI
GLOBAL SEMICONDUCTOR EQUIPMENT SALES
in Billions of US Dollars
28
2024 VALUE FORECAST
Ship %
change
Tanker +2.5 - 7%
Bulker +3 - 4%
Container +0 - 6%
Gas (LNG) +0.5 - 2%
Source: VesselsValue
U.S. RAIL TRAFFIC*
30
9/4/2024
week ended 8-10-24 Year-to-Date 2024
Cars vs 2023 Cumulative Avg / wk vs 2023
Total Carloads 222,039 -0.9% 6,864,604
214,519
-4.0%
Chemicals 32,959 +9.9% 1,307,519
32,422
+4.3%
Coal 61,031 -11.1% 1,746,045
54,564
-16.0%
Farm Products excl. Grain and Food 16,193 +3.5% 527,620
16,488
+2.1%
Forest Products 7,797 +4.9% 265,552
8,299
+2.0%
Grain 18,402 +26.6% 631,686
19,740
+7.1%
Metallic Ores and Metals 19,432 -4.5% 637,693
19,928
-3.2%
Motor Vehicles and Parts 15,184 +1.6% 477,759
14,930
+1.8%
Nonmetallic Minerals 31,849 -3.9% 935,232
29,226
-7.7%
Petroleum and Petroleum Products 10,318 +3.6% 329,736
10,304
+10.4%
Other 8,874 -4.5% 275,762
8,618
+1.0%
Total Intermodal Units 274,470 +10.6% 8,237,398
257,419
+8.7%
Total Traffic 496,509 +5.2% 15,102,002
471,938
+2.5%
Source: Association of American Railroads * Excludes U.S. operations of CPKC, CN & GMXT
NEW N.A. RAILCAR DELIVERIES
31
9/4/2024
17,714
32,184
46,871
68,612
63,156
59,954
21,682
16,535
41,814
53,132
49,954
63,360
74,943 81,641
44,96347,856
66,232
58,026
31,790
25,762
35,813
40,232
43,465F
20,000
10,000
0
30,000 34,000
50,000
40,000
60,00056,000
70,000
90,000
80,000
2024F
2023
2022
2021
2020
2019
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
Alta
Aviation
ROTARY RIG COUNT,
as of 8-2024
Source: Baker Hughes
Location 2024 2023 2022 2021 2020
U.S. Total 588 626 784 586 351
PV INSTALLATIONS
Source: Energy Information Administration
0.45
0.95 1.90
3.30
4.80
6.05
13.50
10.00 10.50 8.00
16.40
3.40
11.70
18.60
33.00
34.00 F
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024F
GW of PV installed
Year
WIND INSTALLATIONS
8.4
10.0
5.2
6.8
13.1
1.1
4.9
8.1 8.8
6.0
6.8 9.3
14.2
12.2
8.8
8.3
7.0 F
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024F
GW of wind power
installed
Year
Source: American Wind Energy Association
Average Oil Price Forecast 2024
Source $/Bbl Comments
EIA $84 Average price for 2024
EIA $83 Average price for 2023
Goldman Sachs $70-90 Down from original of $92
CitiGroup $75 Lowest 2024 estimate
JP Morgan Chase $83 Est. mid 2024
Reuters Poll (30 economists) $84.43 Est. 2023 Average
Saudi Aramco $7-.-- Lower price target due to falling demand
EIA gasoline $3.53/gal Average 2023
EIA gasoline $3.36/gal Est. Average 2024
Nat. Gas $2.514/mmbtu Close for 2023 -43.8% YoY
NEW INJECTION MOLDING MACHINE SALES
Average
39
6000
5000
4000
3000
2000
1000
9/4/2024
0
Pre
…
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024F
NEW ISO CONTAINER PRICES
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
20-ft DV $1,750 $2,660 $2,030 $1,900
$2,245 $3,690
40-ft HC $2,975 $3,855 $6,370 $4,620 $3,400 $3,250
41
9/4/2024
USED ISO CONTAINER PRICES
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
20-ft DV $1,100 $1,325 $2,160 $1,910 $1,060 $950
40-ft HC $1,585 $1,960 $3,640 $2,950 $1,770 $1,650
42
9/4/2024
NORTH AMERICAN LIGHT VEHICLE SALES
(IN MILLIONS)
17.20 16.67 16.99
16.51
13.24
10.43
11.59
12.78
14.49 15.58
16.50 17.68
18.06*
17.23
17.33 17.11
14.58
15.08
13.87
15.60
15.70 F
17
16
15
14
13
12
11
10
18 17.40
16.84 16.91 16.56
19
2024 F
2023
2022
2021
2020
2019
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
* New record
146.0
203.2
252.8
284.0
151.0
133.5
94.8
107.2
194.7
171.4
184.8
220.4
248.8
192.6
192.2
250.5
276.3
191.1
254.2 266.8
221.9 229.5 F
50
0
100 139.6 142.0
150
350
300
250
200
2024 F
2023
2022
2021
2020
2019
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
NORTH AMERICAN CLASS 8 TRUCK SALES
(IN THOUSANDS)
46
7-25-22
9/4/2024
NEW U.S. TRAILER ORDERS
479/4/2024
195 227 229
313
422
203
300
249
362
243 185 F
450
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024 F
thousands
$12.35
$10.33
$10.07
$10.61
$11.91
$12.86
$13.42
$12.99
$9.23 $9.88
$11.13$11.29
$11.54
$12.16
$13.21 $13.78
$13.50 $14.09
$14.74
$12.99
$13.25
$13.24
$13.92
$12
$10
$8
$14
$16 $14.88
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
US$ Billions
Value of US Office Furniture Market
Changes in Value of US Office Furniture Market
+9.5%
-17.0% -16.4%
-2.5%
+5.4%
+12.3%
+7.9%
+4.4%
-3.2%
-29.0%
+12.7%
+7.0%
+1.4%
+2.2%
+8.6% F
+2.1%
+5.4% +2.2% +2.3%
+4.6%
-11.9%
+2.0%
-0.1%
+5.1%
-30%
-10%
10%
30%
2003
20
20
2008
11
12
16
17
18
19
20
2023
50
9/4/2024
USED PRESS SALES
19 yr old 6-color press
2008 $185,000 -- 2022 $235,000 +27.0%
2010 $127,000 -31.4% 2023 $230,000 +24.3%
2014 $225,000 +21.6% 2024 $220,000 +18.9%
2020 $210,000 +13.5%
THANK YOU
QUESTIONS?
539/4/2024