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2025 State of the Consumer Report PDF Free Download

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2025 State of the Consumer Report PDF Free Download

2025 State of the Consumer Report PDF free Download. Think more deeply and widely.

2025 State of the
Consumer Report
Presented in Partnership With
Everyone is
Value-Obsessed
PG. 4
Private Label,
Challenger Brands
PG. 11
Health Is
Table Stakes
PG. 14
Loyalty
Means Nothing
PG. 17
The New
America
PG. 7
2025 STATE OF THE CONSUMER REPORT
2
As we reflect on the insights shared in this year’s State of the
Consumer report, the Forvis Mazars team sees clear signals of
transformation across the food and beverage value chain. From
our vantage point serving manufacturers, consumer brands, and
logistics providers, the themes of value, agility, and trust are more
pronounced than ever.
Consumers are navigating a landscape marked by economic
uncertainty, shifting priorities, and a heightened focus on both
affordability and quality. We’re seeing manufacturers accelerate
innovation—whether through premium private label offerings,
cleaner ingredients, or tailored health solutions—to meet evolving
expectations. At the same time, logistics and supply chain
partners are adapting rapidly to support omnichannel growth
and the demand for convenience, ensuring products reach
consumers efficiently and reliably.
Brand loyalty is being redefined. Today’s shoppers are more
willing to switch channels and brands, seeking meaningful
value and transparency. This is driving collaboration across
the ecosystem—from manufacturers to retailers to logistics
providers—to deliver experiences that resonate with the
“considered shopper.”
At Forvis Mazars, we share the industry’s commitment to
navigating change with insight and resilience. Organizations that
embrace data-driven decision-making, operational flexibility, and
authentic engagement will be well-positioned to succeed. Together,
we can help shape the future of the food and beverage sector.
A Letter From Our Partner
KRISTEN WALTERS,
PARTNER,
FORVIS MAZARS US
VALUE-OBSESSED
THE NEW AMERICA
PRIVATE LABEL
HEALTH IS TABLE STAKES
LOYALTY MEANS NOTHING
EDITOR’S LETTER
2025 STATE OF THE CONSUMER REPORT
3
The food and beverage industry is in a fascinating position.
Yes, there’s a lot of fear, uncertainty, and stress regarding food
decisions as consumers worry about an uncertain economic
future. But there’s also a great deal of hope: unique and
indulgent offerings provide an affordable element of escapism,
while health and wellness goals are encouraging the industry
to do a better job of supporting consumers.
Friends, family, and coworkers have also noted having to invest
more time into their weekly grocery run to keep their food
budgets tame. This is incredibly frustrating for busy shoppers
and signals that loyalty for brands and businesses is waning. In
that gap, channel-switching has become more commonplace.
On the other end of the spectrum, shoppers also continue to
demand convenience, often even at the detriment of price, as
they become fatigued by a difficult market.
As the market shifts towards savings, grocery aisles are
becoming a battleground between national, private label, and
challenger brands eking out margin. But these brands don’t
have to compete—each sub-type offers something unique to the
consumer, and stakeholders can work together to communicate
those key differentiation points.
Food and drinks are fun. They are also necessary. At a time when
consumers are being tested, the industry is well-suited to deliver
a helping hand, providing everyday cost-saving solutions, in
addition to clear acute benefits, such as community engagement,
nutrition support, and a sense of adventure with experiential and
indulgent flavors and delights.
The next few years will determine how the American public trusts
its food system to have its best interests in mind, and today’s
stakeholders are rising to the task. Private label brands continue
to deliver on price while also improving the quality of their
ingredients and processes, legacy CPGs are making promises to
remove artificial dyes at the behest of consumer demands, and
foodservice channels are deepening their relationship with their
diner through meaningful collaborations and sensible selections.
A Letter From the Editor
GEORGE HAJJAR,
EDITOR,
THE FOOD INSTITUTE
PRIVATE LABEL
LOYALTY MEANS NOTHING
HEALTH IS TABLE STAKES
THE NEW AMERICA
VALUE-OBSESSED
EDITOR’S LETTER
2025 STATE OF THE CONSUMER REPORT
4
here is no escaping today’s reality: consumers are stressed.
This has made the CPG, grocery, and foodservice value
propositions more important than ever.
Although a value focus is coming to every consumer,
irrespective of socioeconomic status or life stage, the word “value”
is very different for the 72.5% of consumers that are considered
“strugglers,” “rebounders,” or “cautious.”
Further, nearly all working-class consumers are feeling the sting of
economic realities that result from wage growth failing to keep pace
with food inflation, and other headwinds eating into food budgets.
On the other end are the ultra-wealthy who can still be swayed by
a good deal but who have the flexibility to maintain their lifestyles.
"We’re currently seeing a bifurcation of consumers: those that
are negatively impacted by economic headwinds and those that
are insulated from economic headwinds,” Farzad Mukhi, managing
director of consumer, food, restaurant, and retail investment banking
at Kroll, told The Food Institute.
This phenomenon is being called the “K-shaped economy,”
because the wealthier minority is maintaining their purchase
behavior, leading to an increase in inputs as inflation pushes prices
up, while the rest of the population begins to pull back.
The New Value Playbook
Already, the market has shifted to meet this value-first demand.
In grocery, private label exhibits steady growth as consumers are
compelled by market factors to purchase deeper into these categories.
In foodservice, promotions have become a necessary tool to maintain
foot traffic.
Everyone Is
Value-Obsessed
BY GEORGE HAJJAR
T
Consumer Types
K-Shaped Economic Recovery
Source: NIQ Consumer Outlook US View, October 2025
Mid-
2022
17%
11%
42%
23%
7%
38%
14%
15%
7%
26%
38%
12%
13%
6%
31%
40%
13%
17%
14%
17%
Mid-
2023
Mid-
2024
Mid-
2025
Thrivers
Saved money
and feel more
financially secure
Unchanged
Not impacted
and continue to
spend the same
Cautious
Not impacted
financially but
are cautious
with spending
Rebounders
Experienced
income or job loss
but now feel they
are back on track
Strugglers
Have suffered
financial insecurity
and continue to
do so today
Economic Activity
Time
High-Income Earner Low-Income Earners
PRIVATE LABEL
LOYALTY MEANS NOTHING
HEALTH IS TABLE STAKES
THE NEW AMERICA
VALUE-OBSESSED
EDITOR’S LETTER
2025 STATE OF THE CONSUMER REPORT
5
Alison Buckneberg, senior director of food PR for Curious Plot,
succinctly positioned this economic tension as shaping “curiosity.”
Families today are more interested in budget-friendly inspiration and
convenient meal solutions that can allow them to not worry about
their next meal, she explained.
“Consumers want control and creativity in how they navigate
tighter budgets,” she said.
Additionally, these shoppers are curious about how to feed families
without sacrificing taste and nutrition.
As a result, consumers have become much more savvy about how
they spend their money. Not only are they pulling back, but the food
dollars they do spend have to provide an extra lift.
“It’s no longer enough to be affordable. You have to be meaningfully
affordable,” said Patrick Young, managing director of PRS IN VIVO.
This approach is key to every area of the F&B industry. At the
recent Groceryshop 2025 conference, for example, Mindy Shaltry,
head of omnichannel marketing and activation for Mondelez,
explained that the company’s suite of brands is being positioned
against more expensive, similar experiences.
Exhibit A: a CPG ice cream treat can still offer a premium, indulgent
experience at a fraction of the price of an ice cream shop.
FICO Score DistributionCivicScience Economic Sentiment Index
Percentage of Population with 50+ point score
decrease year-over-year
Apr 20 Apr 21 Apr 24 Apr 25
25
20
15
15
30
35
40
0
5
10
10
5
300-499 500-549 550-599 600-649 650-699 700-749 750-799 800-850
18-29 year olds All age groups
Apr 20
October 2024 October 2025
Apr 21 Apr 22 Apr 23 Apr 24 Apr 25
Source: FICO Source: CivicScience, FICO
Economic sentiment declines as tariff and government
shutdown uncertainties grow. Oct. 22 2024 — Oct. 21 2025
“Today’s shopper is incredibly
intentional about finding value
— not just deals to stretch
their dollar, but also smarter
ways to shop,”
—Chris Riedy, chief revenue officer, Ibotta
PRIVATE LABEL
LOYALTY MEANS NOTHING
HEALTH IS TABLE STAKES
THE NEW AMERICA
VALUE-OBSESSED
EDITOR’S LETTER
2025 STATE OF THE CONSUMER REPORT
6
Fast food 46%
Grocery stores 26%
Clothing, shoes, etc. 36%
Fast casual 40%
Gasoline 16%
Full-service 42%
Beauty/personal care 23%
Live entertainment 36%
Travel 36%
Nothing 22%
Buying more generic brands
44%
Sticking to their lists
38%
Paying closer attention to prices
29%
88% of consumers changed their grocery shopping habits,
up from 85% in 2022.
Which of the following categories are you likely to cut back
on if tariffs lead to higher prices?
Source: CivicScience, Lending Tree
The Aging Arc
Source: Circana
Baby Boomers and Gen X currently dominate retail
spending with a combined 65% share
By 2030, Gen Z and Millennials will
dominate the U.S. population and
drive 60% of retail sales growth
+60%
Eating Out is Most At Risk of Losing Margin
Grocery Shopping Habits
PRIVATE LABEL
LOYALTY MEANS NOTHING
HEALTH IS TABLE STAKES
THE NEW AMERICA
VALUE-OBSESSED
EDITOR’S LETTER
2025 STATE OF THE CONSUMER REPORT
7
The New America:
The Good, The Bad, The Ugly
BY GEORGE HAJJAR
sk an American today about the health of the economy, and,
depending on their political alignment, the answer may vary.
Recent data suggests that the perception of the country’s financial
health is deeply contextual.
Kris Hull, EVP of consumer products at Ipsos, evaluated this topic
during a conversation at Groceryshop 2025. He explained how the
current state of the country is playing a key role in purchasing decisions.
“Americans are nuanced. Political perceptions and party affiliations
are affecting how they perceive the economic realities and what is
responsible for them,” said Hull.
Where 74% of democrats believe a recession is imminent, only
39% of republicans agree. These perspectives, in turn, impact
purchasing decisions. In today’s market, however, one thing is clear:
value is table stakes.
Consumers are increasing their private label purchases
despite also enjoying their name-brand products. The majority
of independents, democrats, and republicans agree that they’ve
increased their private label category consumption.
A
To what extent do you agree with the following statements?
Total US Democrat Republican Independent
Party Affiliation influences Economic Outlook
The US will experience a recession in the next 12 months
64%
53%
39%
30%
38%
59%
21%
60%
26%
68%
58%
58%
74%
43%
57%
38%
Items I’m shopping for are often out of stock
Gas prices are falling in my area
I’m buying more private label or store-brand products
Source: The Ipsos Consumer Tracker, fielded Aug. 12 – 13, 2025, among 1,085 U.S. adults.
PRIVATE LABEL
LOYALTY MEANS NOTHING
HEALTH IS TABLE STAKES
THE NEW AMERICA
VALUE-OBSESSED
EDITOR’S LETTER
2025 STATE OF THE CONSUMER REPORT
8
“Less than half of people believe that the quality gap between
[brand names] and private labels is enough to justify the price for us.
So there is some erosion,” said Hull.
What’s more, of the 78% of consumers that are feeling higher prices
in their grocery bills, 77% of democrats feel that government policies,
such as tariffs, are to blame, while only 37% of republicans feel the
same, according to the Ipsos study. Conversely, 31% of republicans
feel it’s due to individual businesses recouping their previous losses,
compared to only 7% of democrats who feel the same.
Hull also offered advice on how to engage with this new
consumer: listen to how Americans are responding to market
dynamics, learn about meaningful ways to engage with these
nuances, and respond with authenticity and empathy for the cash-
strapped, worried consumer.
The New Reality: Value First, Always
This shift is bigger than one generation, with global implications.
In a recent report about global shopping behaviors, 65% said they
buy private-label or low-cost brands, indicating a deeper level of
interaction with value-seeking behaviors.
The current consumer resonates with “more-value-for-the-price”
brands because they serve to help meet the customer where they
are at: financially burdened while also needing to make important
food decisions for themselves and their families.
“We have seen private label brands as no longer just a budget
option. They are becoming an alternative that is more accepted
by consumers due to financial pressures and an increase in the
quality of these brands,” said Kristen Walters, partner at Forvis
Mazars US.
However, “value” is deeply nuanced, as “values” such as
sustainability and factors including convenience complicate the
model. For example, 65% of shoppers are willing to pay extra
for 2-hour delivery despite also purchasing more value brands,
according to Capgemini.
Gen Z Financial Breakdown Sustainability Sells
Source: Talker Research Source: Capgemini
62% 38%
support brands that
demonstrate transparent
food-waste reduction
practices
67% 64%
see lack of sustainability
as a reason to switch
retailers
purchased products from
organizations perceived
to be sustainable
25%
are “Value-Seekers”
are willing to pay up to
5% more for sustainable
products
64%
regularly think about their
financial future
Only 8% consider themselves
“spontaneous purchasers”
Nearly half “mostly cook at home”
Mostly cook at home
45%
Often order takeout
9%
PRIVATE LABEL
LOYALTY MEANS NOTHING
HEALTH IS TABLE STAKES
THE NEW AMERICA
VALUE-OBSESSED
EDITOR’S LETTER
2025 STATE OF THE CONSUMER REPORT
9
These factors help brands differentiate themselves,
especially at a time when it is becoming increasingly difficult
for businesses to compete purely on price.
Knowing this, the F&B industry can make informed
decisions about its market demographic(s) by tailoring
messaging and price competition to its ideal consumer base.
The Considered Shopper
This reality is especially true for the “considered shopper” an
emerging consumer sub-group changing the F&B landscape.
Today’s economy has created a “considered shopper who
has money to spend but is staying very careful and value-
focused,” said Oliver Chen, managing director of retail at TD
Cowen, during a separate conversation at Groceryshop.
The enduring success of third-party grocery and
foodservice delivery services is a testament to this
relationship. In September, online grocery sales increased
31% year over year, fueled by larger average order values
and accelerated monthly active users.
Chen noted that these shoppers still love the physical store
but also demand convenience. These shoppers will channel
shift to find the key to feeling they’re getting a good value,
without having to go too far out of their way.
Martie co-founder Louise Fritjofsson noted that high-
income consumers make up 60% of their customer base.
She operates a grocery delivery website that offers deep
discounts for specialty food products nearing their best-by
or expiration dates. These users are “considered shoppers”
because they still desire that premium aspect of the
assortment and the convenience of online delivery while also
stretching their dollar further.
This considered shopper is also likely to be swayed by an
affordable premium offering through traditional channels or
legacy brands.
“Americans are nuanced. Political perceptions
and party affiliations are affecting how they
perceive economic realities,”
—Kris Hull, EVP of consumer products, Ipsos
PRIVATE LABEL
LOYALTY MEANS NOTHING
HEALTH IS TABLE STAKES
THE NEW AMERICA
VALUE-OBSESSED
EDITOR’S LETTER
Global to see the big picture.
Local to understand it.
Assurance | Tax | Consulting
forvismazars.us
Providing clarity. Building confidence.
2025 STATE OF THE CONSUMER REPORT
11
The Reverse-Bell Curve:
Private Label,
Challenger Brands
BY GEORGE HAJJAR
he biggest stress in the market is coming to mid-priced
offerings. In grocery, this means national CPGs are feeling the
stress with their legacy brands. In foodservice, full-service is beginning
to buckle.
The new value standard dictates that budget and unique,
experiential offerings will continue to grow.
“The traditional model, where brands achieved ‘staple’ status
through long on-shelf presence and blockbuster marketing budgets,
has been completely disrupted,” Guy White, CEO and founder of
Catalyx, told FI.
For private label, this dominance has been gradual. These products
have simply gotten better: now, 74% of shoppers say private label is
just as good as their name-brand analogs.
“Private label has evolved from a trade-down to a trade-smart
decision,” said Curious Plot’s Alison Buckneberg.
T
Private Labels vs Name Brands
Thinking about private label goods, to what extent do you agree
or disagree with the following statements?
I prefer to stick with food brands whose ingredients I know and trust
83%
Private label products are just as good as brand-name products
74%
I have favorite brands of products I buy often and am
unwilling to switch
74%
Name-brand products have a proven track record
69%
I can’t always find a store brand equivalent of the brand-name
product I want
61%
I actively seek out private-label brand options when shopping
49%
Brand-name products offer superior quality compared to store
brands, justifying the higher price
46%
I have had a bad experience with a store brand product in the past
and am hesitant to try others
29%
I am willing to purchase private label brands if my usual brand
is out of stock
79%
Source: The Ipsos Consumer Tracker, fielded February 11-February 12, 2025
among 1,082 U.S. adults.
PRIVATE LABEL
LOYALTY MEANS NOTHING
HEALTH IS TABLE STAKES
THE NEW AMERICA
VALUE-OBSESSED
EDITOR’S LETTER
2025 STATE OF THE CONSUMER REPORT
12
Coinciding with the fall of the old model is a new format that will
define the future of the grocery shopping experience, in line with
today’s European market.
Every year, private labels’ overall market share in the U.S. Innovation
pipelines are gradually aligning to the European model, with true
innovation coming from challenger brands that can better meet
consumer niches. These aisles also feature fewer national brands, with
private label filling out the gaps and offering lower prices.
NIQ notes that retailers are also shifting toward a “tiered assortment
strategy” that features value, mid-tier, and premium private label lines
poised alongside those staple national and challenger brands. This
model effectively attracts different shopper segments and inspires
more diverse baskets with a curated mix of offerings.
Forvis Mazars US’s Kristen Walters noted the impact that private
label has had on domestic CPG brands.
“We have…seen companies that are traditionally only focused on
the growth of their own brands shift towards private label customers,”
she said.
On the premium end, challenger brands have excelled through
their market positioning. They are well-equipped to continue delivering
attractive value propositions for their core consumers, who are willing
to pay a price premium for experiential, indulgent, functional, and/or
artisanal offerings.
“These brands are finding creative ways to compete with legacy
players by positioning themselves as affordable, yet elevated
alternatives as inflation persists,” said Guy Yehiav, president at
SmartSense by Digi.
He noted that frozen and ready-to-eat categories have been
especially fruitful for challenger makers as they boast a premium,
high-quality product that can elevate an experience while also
providing attractive unit economics.
Both ultra-savings offerings and premium delights have an opening
in today’s market to better connect with consumers across income
levels with authenticity, transparency, and a compelling story.
THANKSGIVING 2026 COSTS
25% of shoppers plan to buy more Private
Label items, and 65% are comfortable serving
them; only 5% will prioritize name brands.
Private Labels vs Name Brands
Are you buying grocery store brand/grocery private label
brand items more often or less often compared to last year?
More Often
Than Last
Year
July 2022 August 2025
26% 31%
61% 58%
9% 7% 4% 4%
About the
Same as
Last Year
Less Often
Than Last
Year
Do Not Buy
Over half (55%) of consumers
say they’re open to trying
new brands, up 10% from last
year, signaling a major shift
towards price-sensitivity
and brand switching.
Source: The Ipsos Consumer Tracker, fielded February 11-February 12, 2025
among 1,082 U.S. adults, Ibotta
PRIVATE LABEL
LOYALTY MEANS NOTHING
HEALTH IS TABLE STAKES
THE NEW AMERICA
VALUE-OBSESSED
EDITOR’S LETTER
2025 STATE OF THE CONSUMER REPORT
13
The Rise of Premium Private Label
What a few years ago may have seemed like an oxymoron, FI CEO
Brian Choi now calls a “bright spot” in the industry.
“Just like diners can still go to a Chili’s and get a restaurant
experience at a cheaper price point, consumers can still have a
heightened experience with premium private label,” he explained.
At its core is the concept of “purposeful luxury” that resonates with
today’s savvy shopper.
The premium portfolio is supported by an approach that lets other
players test the market. Private Label Manufacturers Association
president Peggy Davies described the relationship between private
label and name brands as symbiotic in an FI webinar on the topic late
last year.
“We need [name brands],” Davies said. “They sometimes have a
way to invest that our [private label] manufacturers don’t have. They
bring some innovation to the market, and we are fast followers.”
This approach has been the subject of recent controversy as legacy
brands lose market share and turn to taking legal action to recoup
some of their losses. J.M. Smucker Co. is embroiled in a lawsuit with
Trader Joe’s over a crustless peanut butter and jelly sandwich that
allegedly resembles its Uncrustables product line.
Technological advancements in Generative AI have also enabled
retailers to better innovate in the aisle, but the to-market strategy is still
in its early stages.
For now, premium private label complicates the market.
“In some categories, the real competition is now between
premium private label and mid-tier challenger brands. Consumers
are asking themselves, ‘Why pay more for a name I don’t know,
when the retailer brand already feels trustworthy?’ explained PRS IN
VIVO’s Patrick Young.
This means that challengers and national brands need to work
harder to offer differentiation by leveraging their respective competitive
advantages: for legacy brands, it’s scale and household penetration, for
challengers, it’s agility and community personalization.
European Private Label Sales Rose to
€355 Billion ($412.6 Billion USD) in 2024.
In 2025, U.S.
store brands
represented 23.1%
of unit sales and
21% of dollar sales.
PLMA president Peggy Davies said
2025 Global Outlook on Private
Label & Branded Products
Source: Private Label Manufacturers Association International Council, NIQ, Finding Harmony on the Shelf: 2025 Global Outlook on Private Label & Branded Products
60%
of global consumers trust store
brands due to retailer endorsement.
+26%
Branded products are often sold
at higher prices compared to
private label products across CPG
categories, globally.
44.0%
Portugal
45.6%
Spain
34.4%
France
39.8%
Belgium
45.2%
The Netherlands
34.0%
Denmark
44.0%
United
Kingdom
23.0%
Norway
28.8%
Sweden
27.2%
Poland
41.4%
Germany
52.3%
Switzerland
44.0%
Austria
27.9%
Hungary
21.4%
Czech Republic
30.2%
Italy
24.2%
Greece
Private Label Share by Country
(value 2023-2024)
PRIVATE LABEL
LOYALTY MEANS NOTHING
HEALTH IS TABLE STAKES
THE NEW AMERICA
VALUE-OBSESSED
EDITOR’S LETTER
2025 STATE OF THE CONSUMER REPORT
14
Health Is Table Stakes
BY GEORGE HAJJAR
here’s no denying that health and wellness are top of mind
as consumers consider their food and beverage purchases.
The weight-loss movement supported by GLP-1 drugs, the
demand for cleaner labels, general accelerated interest in the
vertical, and the recent call to “Make America Healthy Again,”
have come together to instigate a cultural shift.
“Food brands must make nutrition strategy part of their
overall brand strategy,” Geoffrey Russo, global insights and
impact director at Eat Well Global, Inc., told FI. Health has
become a top motivator for today’s consumers.
Whether that looks like portion control for indulgence, tapping
less-processed ingredients, or adding some macronutrient
benefits, consumers are responding better to positive health
attributes.
The dominating scrutiny of synthetic colorants and additives
in the media, are also compelling major companies, such as
Walmart and Nestlé, to pledge intentions to gradually remove
T
50%
77%78%
78%
of American consumers
were actively prioritizing
healthy eating
of consumers that are
familiar with these topics
consider them when
choosing foods or planning
meals, on average
of consumers that are
familiar with these topics
consider them when
choosing foods or planning
meals, on average
Top Food Concerns
Ingredients/Additives Mental health nutrition
UPFs Nutrient-rich/Fortified
Top Food Interests
of American consumers
make heath and
nutrition a priority
2022 2025
Eat Well Global:
Mapping Consumer Drivers Toward
Health-Consciousness, 2025
+28PT
Source: Eat Well Global: Mapping Consumer Drivers Toward Health-Consciousness, 2025
PRIVATE LABEL
LOYALTY MEANS NOTHING
HEALTH IS TABLE STAKES
THE NEW AMERICA
VALUE-OBSESSED
EDITOR’S LETTER
2025 STATE OF THE CONSUMER REPORT
15
these from their products. For a closer look at the clean label
movement, check out the FI Monthly Report on Innovative
Trends for 2026.
To build trust for health-conscious shoppers, Russo
recommends engaging with audiences in ways that build
credibility, clarity, and consistency.
Challenger and specialty brands are uniquely suited to cater
to this growing consumer need state, as they can often better
address the tailored needs of their niche target audience.
“Often built around a single benefit, be it plant-based
credentials, functional health, or ethical sourcing, [challenger
brands] are able to speak directly to consumer desires in a way
that feels fresh and authentic,” said PRS IN VIVO’s Patrick Young.
“In a noisy landscape, their narrow focus can be a strength.”
This, however, hasn’t stopped major brands from developing
their health-forward focus, too. Recently, Starbucks developed a
line of protein-infused coffees that, to some, highlight the absurd
extremes of the movement, while others suggest the deep
implications that macronutrient fortification has on the industry.
“Our point of view: the future looks like great-tasting,
“The health-forward
movement is evolving beyond
traditional wellness.”
—Kristen Walters, partner, Forvis Mazars US
Health and wellness is a bright spot for the industry
Health & Wellness
Clothing & Apparel
Travel
Investing
Home Improvement / Furniture
Automotive
Beauty
Technology & Electronics
Entertainment
Real Estate
Sporting Goods
+10%
-6%
-8%
-9%
-10%
-11%
-16%
-17%
-19%
-19%
-25%
Source: CivicScience
Percentage of consumers spending more minus those spending less
PRIVATE LABEL
LOYALTY MEANS NOTHING
HEALTH IS TABLE STAKES
THE NEW AMERICA
VALUE-OBSESSED
EDITOR’S LETTER
2025 STATE OF THE CONSUMER REPORT
16
macronutrient-smart coffee - not wellness theater,” weighed
in Wandering Bear Coffee co-founder Matt Bachmann.
Plus, with recent reports noting health-focused activities
such as gym visits, climbing to 25% of the U.S. population,
opportunities for brands to meet the need states of these fitness
enthusiasts continue to grow.
The Health & Wellness Calibration
“‘Health-forward' isn't just about clean ingredients anymore.
It's also about balance, mental health, and the environment,”
said Nicole van Zanten, co-president and chief growth officer
at ICUC.Social.
Consumers are looking for products that address multiple
lifestyle-related goals and values. Whereas a decade ago,
social and environmental values remained niche food
industry attributes, ongoing policy shifts, such as the
European Union Deforestation Regulation, and business
initiatives to achieve carbon neutrality have challenged the
industry to consider its relationship to the environment.
Van Zanten added that social media is a key driver of
this movement, as it allows consumers to discover tailored
products and better understand company positioning.
Additionally, healthy lifestyles today have developed a new
system where “functional” is in.
Bachmann explained that this is no coincidence. He
suggested that today’s macronutrient demand (protein, fiber,
etc.) developed on the heels of a cultural shift of the term
“functional,” transforming from “micro” nutritional benefits,
such as adaptogens, nootropics, to a more inclusive definition.
That doesn’t mean that these situational benefits are
less important, as the market still embraces an overall
‘food as medicine’ approach to support physiological and
psychological processes; rather, it has made the health and
wellness movement more accessible.
Primary Sources of Protein
aamulya
66%
Two-thirds of Americans feel
protein content is important
to them while shopping
Protein Supplements
19%
22%
Plant-based Proteins
25%
26%
Nuts and Seeds
36%
40%
Fish or Seafood
42%
48%
Eggs
52%
49%
Dairy Products
54%
48%
Meat
71%
65%
Other
4%
7%
Source: CivicScience, 1,343 responses from 09/15/2025 to 09/17/2025
US Adult Passionate about health and fitness
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2025 STATE OF THE CONSUMER REPORT
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he savvy shopper is willing to sacrifice a bit of their routine
purchases and convenience to ensure they are getting the best
deal. As a result, private label is growing, as well as discounters,
hypermarkets, and club channels.
“Consumers’ willingness to switch stores or brands shows that
value and trust now outweigh legacy brand loyalty,” Curious Plot’s
Alison Buckneberg, told FI.
As a result, SmartSense’s Guy Yehiav recommended retailers to
double down on private label and frozen offerings that look more
attractive to consumers in today’s economy.
As organic loyalty wavers, loyalty programs and apps that
make customers feel valued while also creating a channel to offer
tailored savings options can provide a clear path ahead. Giant
Food’s Ryan Draude noted that the retailer’s app has become a
priority for the company.
Additionally, PRS IN VIVO’s Patrick Young recommended
grocers to evaluate their tiering strategies within categories,
consider price guarantees, and leverage targeted in-store
promotions to maintain margins.
“Value is no longer a purely rational calculation. It’s
psychological,” he said.
Retailers also have another secret weapon that can give them
an upper hand: collaborations. Retailer and brand partnerships are
offering a differentiated, unique way to bring something fresh for
consumers while driving excitement.
T
Loyalty Means Nothing
BY GEORGE HAJJAR
Discretionary Products Most Likely to be Cut Back
When thinking about the potential for tariffs on a range of US
trading partners, if prices rise at the least 10% on the following
items, what impact might they have on your shopping?
It wouldn’t affect my purchases
I would purchase more of this now to stock up
I would try harder to find lower prices
I would change which stores I shop at
I would have to cut back on this
I would not buy this item
I am not in the market for this
Source: Ipsos
Detergent and cleaners
22% 13% 15%49% 9%
Dairy products
22% 7% 14%47% 19%
Paper products
23% 13% 14%45% 14% 4%
Small electronics
13% 5% 8%28% 21% 18% 15%
Snacks
18% 9% 12%38% 29% 8% 2%
PRIVATE LABEL
LOYALTY MEANS NOTHING
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EDITOR’S LETTER
2025 STATE OF THE CONSUMER REPORT
18
Liquid Death is a clear example of this trend. This summer, it
worked with Sheetz on an activation that brought chainsaw-cut
sandwiches to the convenience chain, engaging brand loyalists and
curious consumers alike.
Foodservice Implications
Restaurants are likely to lose key market share because of this
channel-shifting tendency.
Despite this bleak outlook, industry leaders feel that they can
maintain traffic once they establish how they can provide an
affordable, convenient respite from weekly grocery runs.
“For foodservice, it’s a chance to meet budget-conscious
consumers with ready-to-heat or take-home options that extend
value beyond the shelf,” said Yehiav.
He noted that these factors could drive loyalty and resilience at a
time when these sentiments continue to waver.
Some chains have already begun to invest in budget-friendly
solutions. IHOP, for example, recently launched a $6 breakfast value
menu to facilitate traffic.
Data is showing that full-service and QSRs are most vulnerable
to losing share from the savvy consumer, and groceries are taking
that share.
Kroll’s Farzad Mukhi explained that, as industry pressures such as
the cost of commodities, labor, and rent continue to push up menu
prices, the shift is expected to continue.
Top Consumer Saving Strategies
31%31%
Switch to a lower-
priced option
Shop more often at
discount/value/lower-
priced stores
-5% vs 2024 -1% vs 2024
30%
30%
Buy whatever brand
is on promotion
Stop buying certain
products to focus just
on essentials
-6% vs 2024 -2% vs 2024
29%26%
Monitor the cost of
my overall basket
of goods
Weigh up the attributes
that matter most
-3% vs 2024 +6% vs 2024
Source: NIQ 2025 Consumer Outlook survey
“Shoppers are promiscuous,”
—Ryan Draude, head of loyalty
and digital, Giant Food
Source: Riskified
DG Visits to Kroger Decline; Cross-Shopping
With Aldi Rises in Both Directions
Cross-Shopping (Share of Visitors) Between Dollar General
and Leading Grocery Chains
Kroger
40.6%
45.7%
51.6%
From Kroger to DG
28.6%
25.9%
17.7%
From DG to Kroger
Aldi
40.7%
36.0%
37.5%
From Aldi to DG
19.2%
19.8%
26.1%
From DG to Aldi
Q2 ‘25 Q2 ‘22 Q2 ‘19
Nik Modi of RBC discusses channel
differentiation, product selection, and
key macro trends. Listen Now
The Food Institute Podcast
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2025 STATE OF THE CONSUMER REPORT
19
Aldi
27.4%
52.2%
63.9%
27.9%
53.0%
65.9%
29.2%
50.0%
71.2%
31.8%
51.0%
73.4%
36.2%
56.3%
73.9%
Dollar General
Dollar Tree
Q2 ‘19
Q2 ‘22
Q2 ‘25
Consumers Shifting Spending From QSR to Value Grocery Quarterly Visits Compared to Previous Year
Share of McDonald’s Shoppers also visiting Value-Forward Food-at-Home Retailers
2023 2024 2022 2021
Dollar General Traditional Grocery Value Grocery
TTM (Sep 24 - Aug 25)
12.1%
13.9%
14.9%
73.5%
72.1%
69.6%
14.3%
14.0%
15.6%
Source: Placer.aiSource: Placer.ai
Dollar General Growth Eats Into Traditional Grocery
Q1 2024 Q2 2024 Q3 2024 Q4 2024 Q1 2025 Q2 2025
Fast Casual CAVA Chipotle sweetgreen
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
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Contact Us Bryan Wright
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2025 STATE OF THE CONSUMER REPORT
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PRIVATE LABEL
LOYALTY MEANS NOTHING
HEALTH IS TABLE STAKES
THE NEW AMERICA
VALUE-OBSESSED
EDITOR’S LETTER