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types of commercial property loans would have default rates no higher than 4 percent). Small
businesses in general will likely see high rates of closure – a Drexel University researcher states
that the average small business has enough funds to equal 27 days of cash flow. At the least,
retail and restaurant tenants are likely to need rent reductions or abatement in order to stay
afloat.
The most significant impacts on the American economy has been the dramatic rise in
unemployment and reduced incomes. Moody’s economist Mark Zandi estimates that 80 million
jobs (more than half of the nation’s total number of jobs) could be affected by layoffs, furloughs,
hour cuts, or wage cuts. Leisure and hospitality jobs head his list. Various reports suggest 10
million or more vulnerable positions in food and beverage services, accommodation, travel, and
attractions. Retail store jobs are also at great risk.
Reopening the economy has not been a guarantee of activity. Consumers and workers are still
showing caution, keeping demand for non-essential services low. If this trend continues,
personal and business finances can continue to be strained and contribute to a slow recovery.
Most economists believe that these businesses that must operate within close proximity will not
be able to return to pre-epidemic levels until there is a vaccine. What is expected between now
and a vaccine is a “Masked Economy” operating at about 80 percent of capacity.
For the Whirligig Park, which receives many visitors from both outside the state and within the
state and region via car travel, adjustments in behavior might not affect it as much as other
attractions. Many Americans might shun air travel, cruises, theme parks, and foreign
destinations in favor of closer-to-home attractions reachable by car. This represents an
opportunity to market the park to as a regional attraction and generate even more visitors.
A more difficult issue could be the survival rate of local small businesses such as restaurants
and retail shops. For Wilson to benefit from the park, it needs a critical mass of places for
visitors to spend their money. Attrition from businesses unable to survive the coronavirus crisis
would slow the positive momentum that downtown Wilson has experienced since the park
opened.
Utah is stressing the need to “keep business of every kind operating” as much as possible and
is praising local governments that delay business license renewals or ease business sign
regulations. To help small businesses get through the crisis and recover afterwards, researcher
Bruce Katz suggests the creation of “economic stabilization teams” including local governments,
small business owners, banks, landlords, chambers of commerce, and foundations. These
teams could work out the details of short-term relief such as reduced rent or lease extensions,
deferred mortgage or loan repayments, utility bill and tax relief. Longer-term, these groups can
develop joint strategies to help small businesses access financing and other resources, and
fine-tune Wilson’s marketing program to appeal to visitors during the Next Normal era.
Another threat to the Whirligig Park during this time is the resilience of the non-profit that
manages the park. Much of their funding comes from donations from businesses and individuals
in the community. If the community is struggling financially, donations to the park might be
down. As this report shows, the park helps bring business to the town, if the park begins to
struggle to raise funds to operate the park, the benefactors of the park may need to contribute to
keep the park running.