
Economic review and outlook
The predictions and forecasts in this section are based on information
and assumptions from sources we consider reliable. If this information
or these assumptions are not accurate, actual economic outcomes
may differ materially from the outlook presented in this section.
Economic momentum continues to cool
Economic momentum has slowed following a surprisingly strong
start to 2023. The slowdown is highlighted by a gross domestic
product (‘GDP’) contraction of 1.1% quarter-over-quarter annualized
in the third quarter, amid mounting evidence that past interest rate
increases are weighing on economic activity. The Bank of Canada’s
(‘BoC’) policy rate is currently 5.0%, having increased by 475 basis
points (‘bp’) since March 2022.
Despite the headwind from higher interest rates, we do not foresee
either a technical recession (two consecutive quarters of negative
GDP growth), or a real recession (a prolonged, and widespread
decline in economic activity). In part, this is because the fall in GDP
in the third quarter was largely the result of an unexpectedly large
fall in petroleum product exports. In fact, domestic demand rose at
an annualized rate of 1.3%. Nonetheless, highlighting that
underlying economic activity has slowed consumption, spending
was essentially flat in both the second and third quarter. In the
fourth quarter, we expect a small expansion in GDP growth with
exports rebounding, while domestic demand growth cools to 0.5%,
as consumption spending remains essentially stalled. In fact, there
might have been more economic momentum in the fourth quarter
than we expect. Statistics Canada’s monthly industry-level GDP
report posted a stronger than expected gain of 0.2% in November,
with a preliminary estimate that GDP rose by 0.3% month-over-
month in December.
For all of 2023, we forecasted GDP growth of 1.1%, down from
3.8% in 2022. With the limited economic momentum in the second
half of 2023, and interest rates remaining elevated to start the year,
we look for GDP growth of just 0.5% in 2024. With the BoC
expected to initiate a rate cutting cycle starting around mid-year,
economic activity is expected to improve during the second half of
2024. This will help lift GDP growth to 1.8% in 2025.
Inflation remains too high
As economic momentum slowed in response to higher interest
rates, energy prices declined, earlier supply chain disruptions eased -
and inflation has declined. From a peak of 8.1% year-over-year in
June 2022, inflation had dropped to 3.4% in December 2023.
However, as it remains above the top of the BoC’s target band of 1%
to 3%, inflation is still too high.
Supply chain disruptions and interest rates have been interrelated
key factors in the rise and subsequent decline in inflation, as can be
illustrated by the prices for household appliances. As the economy
recovered from the pandemic, interest rates were at very low levels.
This boosted the housing market and the demand for housing-
related goods such as appliances. However, significant pandemic-
related supply chain disruptions curtailed the supply of appliances.
As a result, household appliance price inflation peaked at 12.0%
year-over-year in April 2022. Since mid-2022, supply chain
disruptions eased while higher interest rates crimped the housing
market, putting downward pressure on appliance prices. As of
December 2023, appliance prices were down 0.6% year-over-year.
While headline inflation had declined, short-term core inflation
momentum has proved sticky. After dropping to 2.4% in November,
the 3-month annualized rate of change of core consumer price index
(‘CPI’) rose to 3.6% in December, back into the 3.5% to 4.0% range
it has been in since mid-2022. With core inflation at 3.7% year-over-
year in December, underlying inflation pressures remain elevated
despite the slowdown in economic growth and the decline in the
headline inflation rate.
As well, too many prices are still rising too quickly. For example,
over 34% of CPI items are rising at a year-over-year rate of more
than 5%, while 60% of items are rising at a more than 3% annual
rate. These readings are far higher than what would be observed
when inflation is close to 2%.
Hence, even though inflation has fallen from its mid-2022 peak, and
inflation pressures are easing, it is not yet clear that inflation is on a
path all the way toward the 2% level. Therefore, we think that the
BoC will be wary of prematurely declaring mission accomplished.
The next BoC move will be a cut, but not soon
Nonetheless, we look for the next move by the BoC to be a rate cut.
The first 25bp reduction is expected in June, reducing the policy rate
to 4.75%.
Before initiating an easing cycle, the Governing Council has
indicated that it wants greater assurance that inflation is on a clear
path to 2%. In particular, the Governing Council needs to see further
signs of dissipating underlying inflation pressures, notably the BoC
has indicated that it wants to see short-term core inflation begin to
head lower on a sustained basis.
In addition, the BoC has pointed to other key conditions it needs to
observe before a policy pivot, including inflation expectations that
are falling toward 2% and a further easing of labour market
conditions.
Once the easing cycle begins, we look for a total of 100bp in rate
cuts in 2024, reducing the policy to 4.0% at the end of the year.
With progress on the rate of inflation falling toward 2%, and
economic conditions becoming more consistent with sustained 2%
inflation, we look for an additional 100bp of rate cuts in 2025,
reducing the policy rate to 3.0%.
Labour market easing, but still tight
As economic growth has slowed, there are indications that the
labour market is easing. The most notable sign of easing is that the
unemployment rate has increased to 5.8% at the end of 2023, up
from 5.0% in April. As well, the number of job vacancies has
declined from over one million in May 2022 to 633,370 in October
2023. This is notable because the number of job vacancies are
getting closer to pre-pandemic levels which is a sign that labour
market conditions are returning to normal.
However, there are also clear indications that the labour market
remains tight. Most notably, wage growth remains elevated. In
December, average hourly wages posted an annual gain of 5.4%, up
from 4.8% in November. While wage growth looks to drop back
below 5.0% year-over-year in coming months, shorter term wage
momentum remains elevated. For example, average hourly wages
rose by an average 0.5% month-over-month during the second half,
compared to a monthly average of below 0.4% in the first half of
2023. The BoC has said that annual wage growth of between 4%
and 5% is not consistent with 2% inflation. Thus, the resilience in
wage growth is a factor likely to make the BoC reluctant to cut the
policy rate in early 2024.
Population growth remains strong
The unemployment rate is rising even though employment growth
remains positive. This is the result of the population surge. Canada’s
population increased by 1.25 million in 2023 — a rate of growth of
3.2% year-over-year, and the fastest annual rate of growth since the
late 1950’s. This growth was due to a strong inflow of non-residents,
some of which can be attributed to net immigration, or an increase
in the number of permanent residents. However, almost two-thirds
of the population increase was due to non-permanent residents
(temporary foreign workers, international students, and refugees).
Management's Discussion and Analysis
18 HSBC Bank Canada Annual Report and Accounts 2023