November 2025 Report: October 2025 Freight Market Update PDF Free Download
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NOVEMBER 2025 REPORT
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Simplifying logistics—across the world Overview
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Shippers
All industry verticals
All regions in the world
Small business to
the largest, most
complex companies
Carriers
Airlines
LTL carriers
Steamship lines
Truckload carriers
Intermodal carriers
Like no one else
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October 2025 Freight Market Update
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Key Takeaways
Truckload
LTL Shipping
Ocean Freight
Air Freight
Ports & Drayage
Trade Policy
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•U.S. spot market cost/mile forecasts increase
•Dry Van:
•+4% year-over-year growth for 2025 (from +2%)
•+4% year-over-year growth for 2026 (from +2%)
•Refrigerated Van:
•+1.5% year-over-year change for 2025 (from -1%)
•+3% year-over-year growth for 2026 (from +2%)
•LTL GRIs being announced in the mid-single digits
•Air freight markets at height of peak season, secure perishable and time-sensitive cargo
early to avoid delays
•Vessel fees ease after U.S.-China trade deal, yet overcapacity could limit November rate
hikes; plan for possible India tariff changes
•Port congestion and drayage regulatory uncertainty persist through year-end
•California loses over $40M in federal DOT funding due to non-compliance with commercial
driver English proficiency regulation
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Key Takeaways
High-level insights at a glance
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Truckload
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U.S. Spot Market Forecast | Dry Van
2025 +4% linehaul cost/mile increase y/y, 2026 +4% increase y/y
Truckload
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U.S. Spot Market Forecast | Temperature Controlled
2025 +1.5% linehaul cost/mile increase y/y, 2026 +3% increase y/y
Truckload
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U.S. For-Hire Capacity Forecast
Carrier authorities expected to be in line with historical trends in early 2026
Truckload
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LTL Shipping
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LTL General Rate Increases
GRIs being announced in the mid-single-digit range
LTL
•The LTL market remains soft, with many carriers seeing lower tonnage, volumes,
and revenues
•Carriers are prioritizing cost control and focusing on freight that meets profitability
targets
•Several carriers have announced mid–single-digit general rate increases (GRIs),
largely due to rising labor, insurance, and equipment costs, along with continued
network investments to strengthen service
•GRIs mainly affect shippers without contractual pricing
•Shippers relying on transactional freight should consider securing contractual
agreements to help stabilize rates and maintain service consistency heading into
2026
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Ocean Freight
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Ocean Freight
Mid-November decisions critical as tender season and tariffs converge
Ocean
Global Trends
•November 1 rate increases face mid-month sustainability test as overcapacity emerges; expect softening on weak-demand lanes and late November
blank sailings
Regional Highlights
•Asia: Mid-November reveals if rates hold; USEC likely softens first; tender season concludes mid-November setting Q1 2026 floor
•North America: Gulf Coast constraints worsen through year-end; TPEB blank sailings continue; secure December bookings early
•Europe: TAWB rates may drift lower in December; Asia-Europe tender negotiations conclude mid-November
•South Asia, Middle East, Africa (SAMA): India-U.S. tariff negotiations could conclude by year-end—position inventory strategy now for potential 15-
16% relief
•South America: Four-week Europe booking window persists; West Coast restrictions lift late November
•Oceania: U.S. capacity tight through January until February Eagle service launch; book Q1 early
Key Takeaways
•Book December/January for constrained lanes: U.S. Gulf Coast exports, South America-Europe, Oceania-U.S.
•Prepare for rate softening on USEC and TAWB in late November/December if overcapacity persists
•Position inventory for potential India-U.S. tariff relief before year-end
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U.S. Container Import Volume (TEUs)
Import volumes compared to recent years
Ocean
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Air Freight
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Global Trends
•Capacity tightens late November through December as 11/11 surge, perishables season, and winter passenger schedule
reductions converge
•Rates remain elevated through year-end with no relief until late Q1 2026
Regional Highlights
•Asia: Mid-November 11/11 surge tightens capacity; Europe requires 4–5-day advance booking; North America airport
congestion extends ground times
•North America: Australia, Singapore, South America lanes tightening late November/early December
•Europe: Winter passenger schedule reductions impact Trans-Atlantic capacity; freighter availability remains limited
•South Asia, Middle East, Africa (SAMA): Watch for rapid shifts if U.S.-India tariff negotiations yield relief; India-Europe capacity
tightening as trade redirects
•South America: Chilean berry season starts early December—secure cold chain early; GRU congestion worsening, use
VCP/REC alternatives
•Oceania: Favorable capacity window closes late November; book freighter space now for December perishables
Key Takeaways
•Secure space for early December shipments—particularly perishables, pharmaceuticals, and time-sensitive cargo
•Build contingency plans: alternative gateways (VCP/REC), secondary carriers, earlier shipping dates
•Monitor U.S.-India trade talks—tariff relief could rapidly shift capacity on U.S. and Europe lanes
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Air Freight
Late November capacity crunch demands immediate action for December shipments
Air
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Ports & Drayage
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Global Trends
•Billing disputes escalate through December as FMC clarity remains paused; driver capacity vulnerable if freight demand increases
•Port congestion persists through year-end; Houston dredging, Montreal low water, Kingston hurricane recovery extend constraints
Regional Highlights
•U.S. Central: Sharonville congestion worsening; higher surcharges and longer wait times expected through December
•U.S. Gulf Coast: Houston dredging unresolved through year-end; Europe export capacity severely constrained
•U.S. West Coast: Driver enforcement intensifying; capacity adequate now but at risk if volumes surge
•Canada: West Coast dwell times remain 10 days; expedited rail rejections continue; Montreal low-water fees persist
•Europe: Northern Europe 2–8-day delays, Mediterranean 3-7 days through year-end despite strike resolutions
•Mexico: Manzanillo congestion impacts loading operations through December
•South America: Brazilian ports 80-92% utilization with 20-foot shortages; Cartagena improving, Buenaventura disrupted; Kingston recovering
Key Takeaways
•Book December drayage now before potential capacity crunch if demand accelerates
•Add 3–4-week lead times for Indian Subcontinent; 2-8 days for European gateways
•Finalize Houston, Montreal, Kingston routing contingencies for December shipments
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Ports & Drayage
Secure December capacity as regulatory and infrastructure challenges persist
Ports & Drayage
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Trade Policy & Customs
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•New U.S.–China trade deal announced
•Sets the U.S. reciprocal tariff at 10% for a year instead of the tariff rising to 34% on November 10
•Decreases the drug-related U.S. tariff from 20% to 10%
•Averts the threat of an additional 100% U.S. tariff
•Suspends U.S. port fees on Chinese vessels that started October 14, and the retaliatory port fees China announced on U.S.-
flagged and partially U.S.-owned vessels
•Suspends the export controls China had announced on rare earth elements that are critical for electronics, magnets, and
batteries widely used in manufacturing
•Extends certain Section 301 tariff exclusions that were due to expire on November 29, 2025, until November 10, 2026
•Impact of new restrictions on commercial driver’s licenses (CDLs)
•New rules for non-domiciled CDLs and English Language Proficiency enforcement haven’t yet impacted truckload capacity but
could have cumulative effects over time
•Driver and carrier exits remain steady, keeping the market oversupplied but slowly trending toward balance
•Supreme Court hears case challenging reciprocal tariffs
•On November 5, the U.S. Supreme Court heard oral arguments in the case challenging the president's authority to impose tariffs
by declaring a national emergency
•A decision is expected in early to mid-December, although the court will have until the end of its term next July to issue a ruling
•Utilize C.H. Robinson’s U.S. Reciprocal Tariff Tracker for the most up-to-date tariff deal announcements
•The C.H. Robinson Tariff Timeline tracks key changes as they unfold, making it easier to grasp the big picture at a glance
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Navigating Government Impacts
Recent announcements from the U.S. government
Trade Policy
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