Dynavest Tract – MM Celina Dynavest 3200 LLC
78
Retail Demand In Secondary Market Area
Retail Demand Analysis
The chart below illustrates the Subject Property’s capture rate of total retail demand in the SMA from our retail demand analysis. We
estimate that the Subject Property can capture a smaller portion of demand (+/-50%) within SMA since it represents a viable commercial location.
However, the SMA is a larger area (78 square miles) and there are other viable retail development sites within the SMA. At a 50% capture rate, this equates
to approximately 78,987 square feet demanded currently, 237,999 square feet demanded by 2026, 444,906 square feet demanded by 2031, and 632,962
square feet demanded by 2036, though various categories are suggested to be introduced at different times and not all retail categories are recommended
for the site.
2021 2026 2031 2036 2021 2026 2031 2036
Category Supportable SF Supportable SF Supportable SF Supportable SF Category Supportable SF Supportable SF Supportable SF Supportable SF
Dept. Stores Excluding Leased Depts. 33,528 80,130 140,768 195,882 Dept. Stores Excluding Leased Depts. 16,764 40,065 70,384 97,941
Bldg Material & Supplies Dealers 26,358 66,049 117,696 164,637 Bldg Material & Supplies Dealers 13,179 33,025 58,848 82,319
Grocery Stores 23,965 71,160 132,570 188,385 Grocery Stores 11,983 35,580 66,285 94,192
Restaurants/Other Eating Places 12,761 48,824 95,748 138,398 Restaurants/Other Eating Places 6,381 24,412 47,874 69,199
Sporting Goods/Hobby/Musical Instr 14,422 36,038 64,165 89,729 Sporting Goods/Hobby/Musical Instr 7,211 18,019 32,083 44,865
Health & Personal Care Stores 2,714 19,486 41,310 61,146 Health & Personal Care Stores 1,357 9,743 20,655 30,573
Other General Merchandise Stores 11,671 31,701 57,765 81,455 Other General Merchandise Stores 5,835 15,851 28,883 40,727
Furniture Stores 8,985 21,473 37,723 52,493 Furniture Stores 4,492 10,737 18,862 26,246
Clothing Stores 8,664 20,706 36,376 50,617 Clothing Stores 4,332 10,353 18,188 25,309
Home Furnishings Stores 2,791 12,113 24,244 35,269 Home Furnishings Stores 1,396 6,057 12,122 17,634
Auto Parts, Accessories & Tire 6,872 18,455 33,527 47,227 Auto Parts, Accessories & Tire 3,436 9,228 16,764 23,613
Other Miscellaneous Store Retailers 6,086 14,544 25,550 35,554 Other Miscellaneous Store Retailers 3,043 7,272 12,775 17,777
Electronics & Appliance Stores (1,223) 4,330 11,557 18,125 Electronics & Appliance Stores (612) 2,165 5,778 9,062
Office Supplies, Stationery & Gifts 3,736 8,929 15,687 21,828 Office Supplies, Stationery & Gifts 1,868 4,465 7,843 10,914
Used Merchandise Stores 1,172 5,271 10,604 15,451 Used Merchandise Stores 586 2,635 5,302 7,726
Jewelry, Luggage & Leather Goods 2,620 6,261 10,998 15,304 Jewelry, Luggage & Leather Goods 1,310 3,130 5,499 7,652
Beer, Wine & Liquor Stores 457 3,172 6,706 9,917 Beer, Wine & Liquor Stores 228 1,586 3,353 4,959
Book, Periodical & Music 1,837 4,391 7,714 10,735 Book, Periodical & Music 919 2,196 3,857 5,367
Shoe Stores 1,842 4,403 7,735 10,764 Shoe Stores 921 2,202 3,868 5,382
Specialty Food Stores 1,414 3,616 6,481 9,085 Specialty Food Stores 707 1,808 3,241 4,543
Direct Selling Establishments 1,528 3,651 6,414 8,925 Direct Selling Establishments 764 1,826 3,207 4,463
Drinking Places - Alcoholic Beverages 1,017 2,430 4,269 5,940 Drinking Places - Alcoholic Beverages 508 1,215 2,134 2,970
Florists 519 1,673 3,175 4,540 Florists 260 837 1,588 2,270
Special Food Services 342 816 1,434 1,995 Special Food Services 171 408 717 998
Lawn & Garden Equip & Supply (16,102) (13,627) (10,405) (7,478) Lawn & Garden Equip & Supply (8,051) (6,813) (5,203) (3,739)
TOTAL 157,974 475,998 889,813 1,265,924 TOTAL 78,987 237,999 444,906 632,962
Source: Zonda, ESRI, ULI
Total Retail Demand - Secondary Market Area Retail Demand at Dynavest Celina Commercial Site - Secondary Market Area (50% Capture)