Thai Market Compass: Year Ahead 2025: Policy plays and Trump 2.0 beneficiaries PDF Free Download
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December 17, 2024
STRATEGY
Thailand
THIS REPORT HAS BEEN PREPARED BY MAYBANK SECURITIES (THAILAND) PCL
SEE PAGE 33 FOR IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS
Thai Market Compass
Year Ahead 2025: Policy plays
and Trump 2.0 beneficiaries
Positive outlook but expect more volatility
We have a positive view on the SET Index with a YE25 target of 1,590. This
is based on 16.9x P/E and our bottom-up Index EPS estimate of 94,
representing growth of 8.4% YoY. We think improving economic
momentum, potential introduction of new policy initiatives and the
accelerating China+1 trend are key drivers for Thai market. For stocks, we
think investors should focus on secondary sectors and the mid-cap space
which benefits from policy plays and Trump 2.0.
Government in the driving seat
We expect government to remain the main growth driver in 2025E. More
cash handouts, accelerated budget disbursements, and new project
biddings are our baseline expectations. We also see upside risks to
economic growth and the market if the government can enact some of the
key policies to drive long-term competitiveness, particularly development
of entertainment complexes. Other policies, such as tax reforms and oil &
gas development in the overlapping claims area (OCA), will be more
difficult and time-consuming to carry out.
External factors: Short-term pain, long-term gain
We think Trump’s re-election is positive to Thailand longer term as we
expect the country to benefit from an accelerating China+1 trend. This
could mean more FDI and stronger export growth outlook. Thailand is far
down the list of countries where the US has its largest trade deficit, and
as such we see limited risk of Thailand facing additional country-specific
tariffs. Successful conclusions of FTA with EFTA/EU could also boost
Thailand’s credentials as an investment destination further. Still, in the
short term, we expect more headwinds from potential fund outflows
(rising bond yield, stronger USD) as well as increased volatility from
Trump’s unpredictable policy announcements.
Focus on secondary sectors and mid-caps
We see limited prospects for large-cap stocks in 2025E as we have a
NEUTRAL view on the five biggest sectors. We also note that SET50 has
outperformed SET Index for the past 3 years, and since 2000, there have
been no 4 consecutive years of SET50 outperformance. Based on this, we
think secondary sectors and mid-cap stocks with strong growth outlooks
should be the main focus for investors. Stocks outside the SET50 offer
better growth (14% vs 7% for SET50), are more attractively valued (14x P/E
vs SET50 16x), and could see far less fund flow pressure. TASCO and CK
remain our top picks as plays on government spending. We are also adding
SKY as we think the company will benefit from increased government IT
projects. For Trump beneficiaries, we like CCET (upturn in storage
demand, trade war beneficiary) as well as AAV (tourism growth, lower oil
price). We also think TLI (not rated) could benefit from a steepening yield
curve and changes to accounting rules.
Analyst
Abbreviations
FDI – foreign direct investment
EFTA – European free trade area
OCA - Overlapping claims area
Chak Reungsinpinya
(66) 2658 5000 ext 1399
chak.reungsinpinya@maybank.com
Top focus stock valuations
Bloomberg Mkt cap Rating Price TP Upside
code (USDm) (THB) (THB) (%) 24E 25E 24E 25E 24E 25E 24E 25E
CCET TB 2,924 BUY 9.55 9.91 4 29.9 27.2 3.5 3.3 12.2 12.4 2.0 2.2
AAV TB 1,062 BUY 2.82 3.40 21 12.7 11.0 3.2 2.5 29.0 25.6 0.0 0.0
CK TB 972 BUY 19.60 27.50 40 17.5 15.2 1.2 1.2 7.2 7.9 2.0 2.3
TASCO TB 911 BUY 19.70 19.50 -1 14.2 12.1 1.9 1.8 13.4 15.1 5.6 6.6
SKY TB 525 BUY 24.00 29.40 23 31.8 20.4 3.3 2.9 10.0 15.0 0.0 0.0
TLI TB 3,590 NR* 10.70 13.38 25 11.6 11.4 1.1 1.0 9.7 9.2 3.2 3.3
P/E (x)
Div yld (%)
P/B (x)
ROE (%)
December 17, 2024
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Strategy Research
1. Positive outlook but expect more volatility
1.1 Modest EPS growth, undemanding valuation
We see a modest growth outlook for the SET. Based on our coverage
universe, we estimate 8.4% EPS growth for the Index in 2025E. This is a
slowdown from estimated 12% growth in 2024E (albeit with downside risks).
On our forecasts, most sectors are likely to deliver relatively strong growth
of 10% or more. However, the index is dragged down by slower growths in
key sectors (banking, oil & gas, and electronics).
Fig 1: 2025E EPS growth by sector
Source: Company, MST
We also think valuations looks reasonable. On MST’s earnings estimate, SET
Index is trading at P/E of just over 15x, lower than its LT average of 16.9x.
We also calculate earnings yield gap to be 3.7% (against Thai 10Y
government bond). This is also higher than its long-term average of 2.9%.
That said, our SET Index target for YE25 is 1,590 and currently there is
barely 10% upside. So while we’re positive on the market overall, we think
investors also need to be selective.
Fig 2: SET Index EPS
Fig 3: SET Index earnings yield gap
Source: Bloomberg, MST
Source: SET, MST
70
29 26 20 18 17 16 14 14 11 10 10 10 998872
-4 -4 -9
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Petrochem
Conmat
Tech services
Transport
Utilities
Telecom
Hotels
Contractors
F&B
Commerce
Finance
Fashion
Packaging
Healthcare
Property
SET
Agribusiness
Banking
Oil & Gas
Electronics
Automotive
REIT
(%)
87.0 94.3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
SET EPS Actual/MST Consensus
3.7%
Avg, 2.9%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
Jan
15
Jan
16
Jan
17
Jan
18
Jan
19
Jan
20
Jan
21
Jan
22
Jan
23
Jan
24
Yield gap Avg
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1.2 Rotation into secondary sectors and mid-cap stocks
We expect smaller sectors and mid-cap stocks to outperform their large-
cap counterparts in 2025E. For one, SET50 Index (a proxy for large-cap
stocks) has already significantly outperformed the broader SET Index in the
past 3 years (2022-24). Since 2000, there has never been more than 3
consecutive years of SET50 outperformance (or underperformance, for that
matter) relative to the SET Index. We think this pattern will hold in 2025E
and expect SET50 to underperform the broader index.
Fig 4: SET 50 vs SET annual performance
Source: Bloomberg, MST
From a bottom-up perspective, we also see limited upside for most of the
large-cap names and we have NEUTRAL views on the 5 biggest sectors in the
market. These include banks (13% weighting in our coverage), energy (12%),
electronics (15%), commerce (13%), and telecom (13%). Tallying all the
sectors, we have a NEUTRAL sector view on 71% of our coverage as
measured by market cap. This implies that we are more positive on 1)
secondary (ie, smaller) sectors and 2) mid-cap stocks.
Fig 5: Our coverage weight by sector
Fig 6: % of our coverage by sector view
Source: Company, MST
Source: Company, MST
-10%
-8%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
+12.3%
+8.1% +7.6%
-11.0%
-7.9%
-12.1%
-0.9%
Electronics,
15%
Commerce,
13%
Telecom,
13%
Banking,
13%
Oil & Gas,
12%
Utilities, 8%
Transport,
7%
Healthcare,
5%
Others, 15%
Positive,
28.3%
Neutral,
70.9%
Negative,
0.8%
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Strategy Research
In terms of valuation and growth potential, we also think that better
opportunities lie outside of SET50. SET50 is more expensive than SET,
trading at 2025E P/E of 15.5x vs SET’s 15.3x based on our estimate. SET50
2025E EPS growth is also lower at 7.1% vs SET 8.4% (MST estimate). Even if
we exclude DELTA (which heavily skews valuation multiples), SET50 exc
DELTA still doesn’t offer much growth (7.6%) and only enjoys lower
multiples (13.3x). However, SET50 ex DELTA is dominated by old-economy
sectors such as banks and energy which offer limited growth prospects and
have limited near-term catalysts.
By contrast, stocks outside of SET50 trade on an average P/E of 14.2x and
offer 14.2% EPS growth. This offers the best growth vs valuation (PEG ratio)
of the four categories and we think it is in this space that investors should
focus their attention.
Fig 7: Stocks outside of SET50 offer most attractive opportunities
Source: SET, MST
From a fund flows perspective, we’re also concerned that a more volatile
market and rising bond yield / stronger USD environment could lead to
continued foreign fund outflows. This could have a more pronounced
negative impact on large-cap stocks than mid-cap ones. SET exc SET50
ownership level is nearing its record low at just 18.8% compared to 26.4%
in early 2016. On the other hand, SET50 Index ownership is near the record
high at 39% vs 34% in early 2016.
We note that SET50 (and SET Index) foreign ownership is heavily skewed by
DELTA which has risen to become the largest stock in Thailand by market
cap and has very high foreign ownership at 96%. Excluding DELTA, SET50
foreign ownership would be much lower at 29%. Similarly, SET Index foreign
ownership excluding DELTA would be 26% (vs 33% with DELTA). The 26%
foreign ownership level is still lower than the early-2016 level but not by
much (30%). On this basis, we would still think that stocks outside of SET50
have the lowest risks of share price volatility and potential fund outflows
due to external factors.
We discuss sector and stock selections in the last section of this report.
15.3
15.5
13.3
14.2
8.4%
7.1% 7.6%
14.2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
12.0
12.5
13.0
13.5
14.0
14.5
15.0
15.5
16.0
SET SET50 SET50 ex DELTA SET ex SET50
(%)
PE (x) PE EPS growth (RHS)
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Strategy Research
Fig 8: SET foreign ownership history
Fig 9: SET foreign ownership now
Source: SET, MST
Source: SET, MST
2. Government in the driving seat
2.1 Stronger economic growth outlook
We forecast Thailand GDP growth to accelerate to 2.8% in 2025E, up from
1.9% and 2.6% in 2023A-24E. This is supported by faster growth in
government spending and private sector investment. We also believe net
exports will remain a key contributor to GDP growth. On the other hand,
we think private consumption growth will continue to decelerate to 2.5% in
2025E vs 3.9-3.1% in 2023A-24E.
Fig 10: Key economic indicators for Thailand
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024E
2025E
Real GDP (%)
-6.1
1.5
2.6
1.9
2.6
2.8
Private Consumption (%)
-0.8
0.6
6.3
3.9
3.1
2.5
Government Consumption (%)
1.4
3.7
0.2
-0.8
1.8
2.0
Gross Fixed Capital Formation (%)
-4.8
3.1
2.3
0.3
2.4
2.9
Exports of Goods & Services (%)
-19.7
11.1
6.8
1.4
4.4
4.0
Imports of Goods & Services (%)
-13.9
17.8
4.1
-1.5
4.0
3.5
Current Account Balance (% of GDP)
4.2
-2.1
-3.4
1.3
1.6
2.2
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)
-5.2
-4.8
-3.5
-3.5
-3.9
-3.5
Inflation Rate (%, period average)
-0.8
1.2
6.1
1.2
0.6
1.2
Unemployment Rate (%, period average)
1.7
1.9
1.3
1.1
1.0
1.0
Exchange Rate (per USD, end-period)
30
33.4
34.6
34.26
34.50
35.80
Benchmark Interest Rate (% p.a., end-period)
0.5
0.5
1.25
2.5
2.25
2.25
Source: Company, MST
2.2 Government spending remains the major driver
We expect government spending to remain a key driver of economic growth.
Based on budget structure, current expenditure (salaries, benefits, etc) is
slated to grow by 4.5% YoY in FY25E (Oct 2024 – Sep 2025). At the same
time, the investment (capital expenditure) budget has been increased by
8.6% YoY. This excludes stimulus spending which is also set to grow by 54%
YoY to THB188b. Most of this amount will be used to fund Digital Wallet
cash handout policy.
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
Jan 16 Jan 17 Jan 18 Jan 19 Jan 20 Jan 21 Jan 22 Jan 23 Jan 24
(%) SET SET50
SET exc SET50 SET exc DELTA
33.2
39.0
25.7 29.0
18.8
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
SET SET50 SET exc
DELTA
SET50 exc
DELTA
SET exc
SET50
(%)
December 17, 2024
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Strategy Research
Fig 11: Thailand government budget FY25 vs FY24
Budget structure
FY24
FY25
% YoY
Current expenditure
2,565
2,680
4.5%
Capital expenditure*
686
745
8.6%
Stimulus spending
122
188
53.9%
Repayment
118
150
26.9%
Replenishment of treasury account
118
na
Total
3,609
3,763
4.3%
Source: Company, MST
As we have written many times previously, we think the biggest uplift will
come from capital expenditure disbursement. The delay to FY24 budget
approval has created a significant spending gap which has been accelerated
since June 2024. We note that at the end of Sep 2024, only 65% of FY24
capital expenditure budget has been spent. We think the leftover spending
from FY24, coupled with disbursement from the FY25 budget, will combine
to drive strong government investment spending in 2025E.
Fig 12: Current expenditure disbursement (quarterly)
Fig 13: Capital expenditure disbursement (quarterly)
Source: MOF, MST
Note: FY25 as of 6 Dec 2024 only
Source: MOF, MST
Note: FY25 as of 6 Dec 2024 only
2.3 Upside risk from new policies
Besides the on-going budget disbursement, we see potential upside risk
from selected policy implementations. Below, we discuss three of the most
talked-about policies which could have broad and significant ramifications
long-term. These are establishment of entertainment complexes (casinos),
oil & gas development in OCA, and tax reforms. However, we note that
none of them is likely to be implemented in 2025E even if we might see
some development.
Entertainment complexes most likely to happen, in our view
Chief among the current government’s policies to boost Thailand’s long-
term growth potential is the development of entertainment complexes. At
present, the legal framework has been drafted and undergone a public
hearing process. We believe the government will try to push the new
legislation establishing legal framework for entertainment complex through
the parliament within 2025E. Early potential beneficiaries include
construction services, construction materials, and property sectors. While
we think it is too early to play this theme now, the situation may change in
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24 FY25*
Dec Mar Jun Sep
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24 FY25*
Dec Mar Jun Sep
December 17, 2024
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Strategy Research
the next six months and investors should be keeping a close eye on its on-
going development next year.
Development of OCA could take decades
Another policy which could have long-term benefit is the development of
Thai-Cambodia Overlapping Claims Area or OCA. This concerns oil & gas
production in the Gulf of Thailand in areas claimed by both Thailand and
Cambodia. We think the issue involves not only how to settle border
disputes but also tax regimes and how to share the revenues generated from
oil & gas production in the disputed area.
If we base the potential timeline of OCA development on that of the
Malaysia-Thai Joint Development Area (MTJDA), we think it could take as
long as 30 years until reaching first gas assuming both sides agree to start
talks in the near future. However, we know that the issue between Thailand
and Cambodia could be more complicated as the two countries have had
border disputes since 1972. The OCA (26,000 sq.km) is also much larger than
MTJDA (7,250 sq.km).
Fig 14: Development time line of Thai-Malaysia Joint Development Area (MTJDA)
Time
Progress
Jan-68
Thailand announces designation of offshore blocks' boundary
Feb-71
Gas discovery in Pilong-1 well (29 mmcfd)
May-73
Thailand officialy proclaims its continental shelf boundary
Apr-74
Petroleum Development Act gives exclusive rights to PETRONAS
May-76
Recommendations jointly made to both governments to suspend any E&P activities in disputed areas
Feb-78
Malaysia and Thailand officials meet; boundary claims recognized as difficult to resolve
Feb-79
MOU signed on the establishment of MTJDA to explore and exploit resources in JDA
Feb-80
Both governments set up Joint MTJA Committee to discuss implementation of MOU
Oct-81
Adoption of Joint Authority Constitution
Nov-89
Both governments endorse MTJA Committee proposed solution and new PSC formula
Jul-90
MTJA Act passed in both Parliaments
Sep-92
Draft PSC approved for commenement of negotiation with contractors
Apr-94
Signing of two PSC contracts between MTJA and its contractors
Aug-95
First gas discovery confirmed at Block A-18
Jun-05
First gas produced at Block A-18
Source: MOC, MST
Tax reforms unlikely to happen before 2026E at the earliest
The current administration is making tax reform one of its key agendas. Our
conversation with Mr. Pichai Chunhavajira, the current Minister of Finance,
suggests that the government wants to increase VAT while at the same time
reducing personal and corporate income taxes. The goal is to reach “15-15-
15,” meaning that all of the above taxes will be set at 15%.
For VAT, this means a sharp increase from the current 7%. We note that the
law has already set VAT in Thailand to be 10% but for the past 20 years,
each successive government has passed a temporary bill to lower the
effective VAT rate to 7% on an annual basis. We think reverting to the
underlying law and charging 10% is the first step towards getting to 15%.
However, this could be hugely unpopular and we do not think the
government will attempt to lift VAT in 2025E.
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Strategy Research
Cuts to personal and corporate income tax rates can be more readily
implemented. However, given the already large budget deficit in FY25, we
do not think the government will attempt such a move either. The current
corporate income tax rate is a flat rate of 20%, and cutting it to 15% would
negatively impact government receipts by about THB174b p.a. or 6% of total
government revenue. However, it would be a significant boost to listed
companies and the Index. We see this as a potential upside, although it is
unlikely to happen in the near term.
Personal income tax contributes about THB360b to annual government
revenue, but we do not know the real effective personal income tax rate
because Thailand uses a progressive tax system whereby higher income
earners pay higher tax rates. The lowest bracket is 0% for income below
THB150k p.a. and the highest bracket is 35% for income over THB4m p.a.
We think changing to a flat 15% rate and removing all deductibles could
actually broaden tax base and increase government revenue. First,
currently only 4.17m people pay tax out of the 10.3m who file tax returns
and 37m employed persons. A flat rate of 15% would at least be likely to
get an additional 6m people to pay taxes. Second, Thailand tax code allows
for a myriad of deductibles. In fact, we estimate that a married person with
2 children earning THB1.2m pa could have enough deductibles to pay zero
tax (although in practice this is unlikely to be achievable). That said, cutting
personal income tax for the highest earners while broadening the tax base
to lower-income earners pay tax could also be politically unpopular. As
such, we do not expect to see this change occurring in the near term either.
Fig 15: Thailand corporate tax, personal income tax and VAT
Tax
Statutory rate
Est. receipt*
% of government
(%)
(THBb)
Revenue*
Corporate income tax
20%
694
23%
Personal income tax
0-35%
362
12%
VAT
7%
805
27%
Source: MOF, MST
Note: * based on FY25 government budget
2.4 FDI likely to pick up
Another potential driver for the economy is private investment which we
expect will accelerate in 2025E on the back of potentially higher FDI.
Thailand has been lagging behind its regional peers in terms of FDI in the
past decade. However, we think this could start to change from 2025E which
we see as a potential year for significant FDI uplift given the China+1 trend.
We note that Thailand still receives strong interest from foreign investors
as BOI project applications and approvals have continued to set new
records. However, the actual FDI inflows (as measured on a BOP basis) have
not caught up with the project approvals. Whereas project approvals in
1H24 have soared by nearly 200% compared to the 1H21 level, actual FDI
inflows have fallen by more than 50% over the same period. With BOI
approval setting a record high in 2023 and again in 9M24, we think this will
eventually translate into higher FDI in 2025E. We note that the typical lag
time is 2-3 years between project approvals and actual investment inflows.
One encouraging sign is that imports of capital goods have grown by 26%
YoY in October, a 3-year high pace. In 10M24, imports of capital goods grew
by 11.4%. This is also the highest since 2021. If we exclude 2021 which
benefited from low-base effect in 2020 (Covid impacts), then the pace of
December 17, 2024
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Strategy Research
capital goods imported in 2024 YTD is the highest going all the way back to
2012. We believe this bodes well for the investment outlook and it could be
the beginning of a multi-year up-cycle for private investment in Thailand.
Additionally, we think the re-election of Trump and the potential escalation
of a trade war could help accelerate FDI into Thailand further.
Fig 16: Thailand BOI project approvals vs FDI (BOP basis)
Fig 17: Capital equipment imports YoY change
Source: BOI, MST
Source: BOI, MST
Sector-wise, we think the electronics, information technology (eg, data
centers) and automotive sectors are the biggest recipients of potential FDI.
They comprise 18%, 9% and 7%, respectively, of total BOI applications YTD.
These sectors benefit from changing trends in the technology space as well
as the China+1 theme.
Fig 18: BOI project applications
Fig 19: BOI project applications by industry (9M24)
Source: BOI, MST
Source: BOI, MST
2.5 FTA could boost export growth, draw in more FDI
The Thai government has announced that it is now ready to sign an FTA with
EFTA (European Free Trade Association) in Jan 2025 following over 2 years
of negotiation. The bloc comprises Switzerland, Norway, Liechtenstein and
Iceland and together generated USD3.9b for Thailand’s exports (1.6% of
total) in 10M24. We have previously flagged this development and think it
is a pre-cursor to the much larger Thailand-EU FTA that could be signed
within 2025. We believe accelerating the FTA process will help Thailand
boost its exports. It would also help close the gap with regional peers
(particularly Vietnam). Again, this would help make the country more
attractive to potential foreign investments.
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
Mar 21
May 21
Jul 21
Sep 21
Nov 21
Jan 22
Mar 22
May 22
Jul 22
Sep 22
Nov 22
Jan 23
Mar 23
May 23
Jul 23
Sep 23
Nov 23
Jan 24
Mar 24
May 24
Approved FDI Realised FDI
Index:
11.4
(20)
(10)
0
10
20
30
40
2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023
(% YoY)
105 110
209
167 174 165 170
339
228 230
264
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
1Q22 2Q22 3Q22 4Q22 1Q23 2Q23 3Q23 4Q23 1Q24 2Q24 3Q24
(THbb)
77.1
14.1
22.6
34.3
53.0
67.8
94.2
183.4
0.0 50.0 100.0 150.0 200.0
Others
Automation
Tourism
Petchem
Food & Agri
Automotive
IT
Electronics
(THBb)
December 17, 2024
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Strategy Research
A case in point is the success of the Thailand-Australia FTA (TAFTA). The
agreement was reached in late 2004 and the FTA went into effect on 1 Janu
2005. In the 4 years preceding the FTA (2001-04), Thailand’s exports to
Australia grew at an 11% CAGR. After the FTA was signed, growth jumped
to a 34% CAGR in the 4 years that followed (2005-08). This was also much
stronger than Thailand’s overall export growth over the same period (17%
CAGR in 2005-08). Imports from Australia also grew strongly after the FTA
was signed although not to the same extent (17% CAGR in 2001-04 vs 24%
CAGR in 2005-09). On the whole, Thailand gained immensely from its FTA
with Australia.
Fig 20: Thailand exports to / imports from Australia
Fig 21: Thailand export to Australia ballooned after FTA
Source: MOC, MST
Source: MOC, MST
The EU is a much larger economy than Australia’s and Thailand’s exports to
the bloc is more than 2.3x larger than its exports to Australia despite the
lack of FTA. As a group, the EU is the 3rd largest trading partner with
Thailand and ranks just behind the US and China+HK. We think that once
the FTA with the EU is signed, Thailand could see explosive trade growth
similar to that with Australia.
Fig 22: Thailand FTA status as measured by export value
Fig 23: Thailand’s top export destinations
Source: MOC, MST
Source: MOC, MST
See our report Thai Market Compass – FTAs key to unlocking FDI and trade
growth, 11 Oct 2024 for more details on potential uplift from Thailand-EU
FTA.
0
2
4
6
8
10
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
(USDb)
Thousands
Export Import
11% 9%
34%
17%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
Australia World
CAGR (%) 2001-04 2005-08
With FTA
57.4%
FTA under
negotiation
11.7%
ROW
31.0%
3.6
3.9
4.0
5.0
9.5
10.3
19.5
23.5
38.5
45.6
0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0
Mexico
EFTA
Taiwan
S. Korea
India
Australia
Japan
EU
China & HK
USA
(USDb)
December 17, 2024
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Strategy Research
3. Trump 2.0 a net positive for Thailand
3.1 Expect higher volatility, potential fund outflows near
term
Under Trump 2.0, we expect 2 positive drivers: Potential acceleration in
China+1 trend and lower energy prices. On the other hand, we also expect
a steepening yield curve on higher inflation expectations and higher US
deficit. This could trigger headwinds for the Thai equity market both in
terms of valuation and fund flows. Trump’s unpredictable policy
announcements could also create additional volatility in the market.
3.2 Thailand to benefit from accelerating China+1 trend
We think Thailand could be a net beneficiary of potential escalation in the
trade war. This could help accelerate the China+1 trend and spur additional
investment and export growth. We see limited risks that Thailand will
become one of the main targets of additional tariffs given its relatively low
net trade imbalance with the US in absolute terms.
Compared to some of its Asian peers, Thailand looks to be relatively safe
from potential additional tariffs. This is because Thailand only ranked 12th
overall in terms of the US trade deficit in 2023. Judging by Trump’s recent
announcement that he might impose additional tariffs on Canada and
Mexico, we think absolute trade imbalance seems to be the key metric by
which he decides which country could be subjected to more tariffs.
Fig 24: US trade deficits by country (2023 data)
Source: US Census Bureau, MST
Additionally, while the US trade deficit with Thailand has increased over
the years, it has done so mostly in line with other ASEAN peers with the
notable exception of Vietnam. US trade deficit with Thailand has grown by
about 181% cumulative in the past 15 years. This is higher than Indonesia’s
67% and Malaysia’s 51%. However, it pales in comparison to Vietnam which
has seen its trade imbalance with the US ballooning by nearly 10x over the
same period.
-279
-152
-105
-83 -72 -66 -64 -51 -48 -44 -43 -41 -27 -25 -17 -14
-300
-250
-200
-150
-100
-50
0
China
Mexico
Vietnam
Germany
Japan
Ireland
Canada
South Korea
Taiwan
Italy
India
Thailand
Malaysia
Switzerland
Indonesia
France
(USDb)
December 17, 2024
12
Strategy Research
Fig 25: US trade deficits vs selected ASEAN countries
Source: US Census Bureau, MST
Even on a relative basis, we do not think Thailand stands out as a potential
target for additional tariffs. US trade deficit with Thailand compared to the
size of Thailand’s GDP is only 8%. This is in line with that of Malaysia (7%)
and much lower than that of Vietnam (24%). Additionally, the ratio of
Thailand’s exports / imports with the US is 3.6x. While this is slightly higher
than Indonesia’s (2.7x) and Malaysia’s (2.4x), it is significantly lower than
that of Vietnam (11.6x).
Fig 26: US trade deficit as % of GDP
Fig 27: Ratios of export/import to and from the US
Source: US Census Bureau, MST
Source: US Census Bureau, MST
3.3 Lower energy prices positive for Thailand
We think Trump’s policies will be headwinds to oil and gas prices. His
promise to “drill baby drill” signifies an even faster growth for US oil & gas
production. This would put downward pressure on global prices, especially
at a time when global demand growth is slowing and OPEC+ is looking to
increase its output as well. For natural gas, we expect Trump to reverse
Biden’s ban on new LNG terminal development. This would help unlock
additional gas supply to the global market.
Given Thailand imports over 80% of its oil needs and ever-increasing
quantities of natural gas, the lower global oil & gas prices will likely be
positive to the Thai economy. Not only will this directly contribute to GDP
(lower net import), it could also help free up disposable income for
consumers.
(140)
(120)
(100)
(80)
(60)
(40)
(20)
0
2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 9M24
(USDb)
Thailand Vietnam Indonesia Malaysia
-24%
-8% -7%
-1%
-30%
-25%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
Vietnam Thailand Malaysia Indonesia
(%)
11.6
3.6 2.7 2.4
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
Vietnam Thailand Indonesia Malaysia
(x)
December 17, 2024
13
Strategy Research
Fig 28: Global oil & gas prices
Fig 29: US oil & gas output
Source: ISEG, MST
Source: ISEG, MST
3.4 Reflation to drive yield curve steepening
We think Trump’s policies are highly inflationary. These include broad-
based tariffs (which would lift CPI) and high budget deficit (which is
stimulative to the economy). We think this could lead to higher US long-
term bond yield that will likely push Thailand’s yield up with it as Thailand’s
long-term government bond yield has historically had high correlation to its
US counterparts. On our estimate, the Thailand 10Y government bond yield
and US 10Y treasury yield has a 76% correlation over the past 10 years. This
also includes periods since mid-2022 when Thailand’s 10Y bond yield has
lagged far behind US treasury yield. Given that the yield gap between the
two countries is now already very wide, we do not expect further
decoupling. In fact, we see room for Thailand’s long-term yield to rise as
correlation resumes.
Fig 30: Thailand’s 2/10 spread during 2016/17 and 2024
Fig 31: Thailand vs US 10Y bond yield
Source: MOC, MST
Source: MOC, MST
A case in point was in late 2016 to mid-2017. US 10Y treasury rose
significantly in anticipation of a Fed rate hike as well as potential reflation
trade under Trump’s presidency. Thailand’s 10Y bond yield also rose in
tandem even as there was no policy rate movement by the Bank of Thailand.
Thailand’s 2/10 bond spread rose sharply to as high as 120bps from about
55bps. This time around, we have yet to see the Thai market pricing in such
a reflation trade. 2/10 bond spread continues to linger at sub-40bps which
is very low. As the market starts to price in more inflation and due to the
impact of fund flows, we expect Thailand’s 10Y bond yield to rise
meaningfully in 2025E.
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
60
80
100
120
140
160
Jan
22
Apr
22
Jul
22
Oct
22
Jan
23
Apr
23
Jul
23
Oct
23
Jan
24
Apr
24
Jul
24
Oct
24
(USD/
mmbtu)
(USD/bbl) Brent Spot LNG (RHS)
85
90
95
100
105
10.0
10.5
11.0
11.5
12.0
12.5
13.0
13.5
14.0
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024E 2025E
(Bcfd)
(mbd) Oil Gas (RHS)
0.00
0.20
0.40
0.60
0.80
1.00
1.20
1.40
01-Nov 01-Dec 01-Jan 01-Feb 01-Mar 01-Apr
(%) 2016/17 2024/25
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
Jan 15
Jan 16
Jan 17
Jan 18
Jan 19
Jan 20
Jan 21
Jan 22
Jan 23
Jan 24
(%) US 10Y Thailand 10Y
December 17, 2024
14
Strategy Research
4. Sector summary and recommendation
4.1 Sector recommendation
POSITIVE construction, finance, healthcare, tech services,
tourism, utilities
We remain positive on construction-related segments—construction
materials (except for SCC) and contractors—as we think government-related
spending will continue to accelerate. We also expect private-sector demand
to improve whereas lower costs will help lift margins. We are also positive
on the consumer finance sector on higher NII growth and lower credit costs.
We like tech services for their strong growth potential amid an uptick in
government-related projects and potential windfalls from investments in
virtual banks. Lastly, we have a positive view on tourism-related sectors
(hotels, healthcare, transportation) as we expect tourist arrivals to exceed
pre-Covid level in 2025E.
Fig 32: SET Index and sector P/E vs 2025E EPS growth
Source: SET, MST
NEUTRAL banks, consumer, electronics, energy, telcos
We are NEUTRAL on the big sectors - banks, consumer (retail, F&B),
electronics, energy, and telcos. For banks, we expect weak loan growth and
NIM contraction in 2025E; their only attraction is high dividend yields.
Following a rough 2024E, we expect retailers’ SSSG to turn positive in 2025E
although they will remain weak at just 1-4%. For F&B, we also think the
environment is less supportive of earnings growth in 2025E following an
already strong recovery in 2024E. In energy, we see lower oil prices as the
key headwind for the sector although already depressed valuations will help
limit potential downside risks. For telcos, we think improving industry
fundamentals are largely priced in.
NEGATIVE auto, packaging
We are most cautious on the automotive and packaging sectors. In the auto
space, we think domestic demand will remain weak given tight lending
standards whereas competition from EV makers will put pressure on listed
auto parts suppliers (which mostly serve Japanese ICE value chain). For
packaging, we think weak Chinese demand and high oversupply will
continue to put downward pressure on profitability.
Conmat
Utilities
Finance
Healthcare
Hotels
Transport
Contractors Tech services
Banking
Commerce
Telecom
Electronics
Oil & Gas
F&B
Property
Automotive
SET
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
-10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35
P/E (x)
2025E EPS growth (%)
December 17, 2024
15
Strategy Research
Fig 33: MST sector recommendations
Sector
Sector
Sector
EPS growth
PE
P/BV
Dividend yield
view
top pick
FY24E
FY25E
FY24E
FY25E
FY24E
FY25E
FY24E
FY25E
Conmat
Positive
TASCO
-11.6
28.6
12.4
10.6
1.5
1.4
5.6%
6.1%
Utilities
Positive
GPSC
11.6
17.9
24.0
21.5
1.9
1.5
3.2%
3.4%
Fashion
Positive
SABINA
13.4
10.3
13.8
12.6
3.8
3.7
7.2%
8.0%
Finance
Positive
TIDLOR
1.5
10.4
13.4
11.7
1.8
1.6
3.1%
3.6%
Healthcare
Positive
PR9
10.9
9.1
25.9
23.3
4.1
3.8
2.3%
2.6%
Hotels
Positive
AWC
26.1
16.4
34.7
27.7
2.1
1.9
0.7%
1.1%
Transport
Positive
AAV
83.2
19.9
37.4
32.1
5.0
4.6
1.3%
1.6%
Contractors
Positive
CK
27.3
14.0
19.8
17.5
1.0
0.9
2.1%
2.4%
Tech services
Positive
SKY
-9.8
26.0
25.4
19.8
3.5
3.3
2.0%
2.2%
Banking
Neutral
KKP, KTB
6.1
6.6
8.3
7.6
0.8
0.8
5.9%
6.6%
Commerce
Neutral
CRC
15.1
10.6
26.0
22.5
3.3
3.0
2.4%
2.5%
Telecom
Neutral
TRUE
39.9
16.7
22.4
17.2
5.5
5.1
6.8%
5.8%
Electronics
Neutral
CCET
31.2
-4.3
30.4
31.2
6.0
5.4
3.2%
3.4%
Oil & Gas
Neutral
BCP
0.2
1.5
nmf
8.9
0.7
0.6
5.5%
7.0%
F&B
Neutral
CPF
nmf
13.7
18.4
16.7
3.4
3.2
3.9%
4.5%
Property
Neutral
SIRI
-13.5
8.7
7.9
7.2
0.7
0.7
8.0%
7.5%
REIT
Neutral
CPNREIT
6.2
-8.6
7.7
11.8
1.0
1.2
8.8%
8.7%
Petrochem
Neutral
-
nmf
70.3
73.2
43.0
0.4
0.4
0.7%
0.7%
Packaging
Negative
-
-15.3
10.2
20.3
18.4
1.1
1.1
2.2%
2.4%
Automotive
Negative
-
-26.9
-4.5
7.9
8.2
0.6
0.6
8.1%
7.4%
Source: Company, MST
Note: Sector P/E, P/BV and dividend yields are arithmetic average for companies under our coverage; sector EPS
growths are based on aggregate sector earnings
4.2 Sector summary
Contractors – POSITIVE
Thailand’s new government, led by Ms. Paetongtarn Shinawatra, took office
in Sep 2024. On 3 Dec 2024, it gave, in principle, approval for the Bang Khun
Thian–Bang Bua Thong motorway project, worth THB47.52b. We expect
several projects to be proposed for approval by the new Cabinet, with bids
anticipated to open in 2025. These include: 1) 2 extension projects of the
Red Line metro, totalling THB21.833b; 2) double-track railway projects
expected to open for bidding, including the Chira Junction - Ubon
Ratchathani line (THB36b) and the Pak Nam Pho - Den Chai line (THB59.3b);
3) Motorway projects: the M5 Rangsit - Bang Pa-in (THB25b); 4) the eastern
expansion of Suvarnabhumi Airport (THB8b); and 5) M&E works for the
Southern Purple Line metro project from Tao Poon to Rat Burana (THB27b).
December 17, 2024
16
Strategy Research
Fig 34: Government infrastructure projects
Project
Value
(THBm)
Project
Owner
Status
Mass Rapid Transit Authority
MRT Purple Line (South) : M&E Work
27,000
MRTA
PPP process & contact signing expected in
1Q25
MRT Blue Line (Extension) : Bangkae – Phttamonthon 4
21,197
MRTA
Pending
MRT Dark green line (Extension) : Samutprakarn – Bangpu
12,146
MRTA
Pending
MRT Dark green line (Extension) : Kukod – Lamlukka
9,803
MRTA
Pending
MRT Ping Line : Saraya – Hua Mark
38,730
MRTA
Pending
MRT Brown line : Khae Rai – Lam Sali
41,720
MRTA
Pending
MRT Grey line : Watcharaphon – Thonglor
26,000
BMA
Pending
Sub total
176,596
State Railway Authority (SRT)
Red Line : Taling Chan – Siriraj Hospital – Salaya
15,176
SRT
To submit to MOT == > Waiting for cabinet’s
approval
Red Line : Rangsit – Thammasat University
6,474
SRT
To submit to cabinet == > Waiting for
cabinet’s approval
Red Line : Bag Sue – Hua Mark & Hua Lamphong (Missing Link)
44,158
SRT
Modifying the construction drawing & revised
EIA process
Double Track : Chira Junction – Ubon Ratchathani
36,600
SRT
To Submit to MOT == > Waiting for cabinet’s
approval
Double Track : PaknamPo – DenChai
59,300
SRT
To Submit to MOT == > Waiting for cabinet’s
approval
Double Track : Hat Yai – Padang Besar
7,860
SRT
Under the Ministry of Transport’s process
Double Track : Chumphon – Surat Thani
28,000
SRT
Under the Ministry of Transport’s process
Double Track : SuratThani – Hat Yai - Songkhla
56,100
SRT
Under the Ministry of Transport’s process
Double Track : Den Chai – Chiang Mai
57,900
SRT
Under the Ministry of Transport’s process
Sub total
311,568
Motorway & Expressway
Motorway : Ragsit – Bang Pa-In (M5)
25,000
DOH
Under MOT propose to Cabinet for approval
Motorway : Bang Khun Thian – Bang Buatong (M9)
47,520
DOH
Cabinet approved in principle / Expect to
open for bidding in 1H25
Motorway : Nakornpathom – Cha-Am (M8)
61,000
DOH
Preparing PPP report / revised EIA process
Motorway : Srinakarindra – Suvarnabhumi (M7)
25,500
EXAT
Under feasibility study by EXAT
Double deck expressway – Ngamwongwan – Rama 9
35,000
EXAT
The EIA has been approved / PPP process
expected to conclude in 1Q25
Expressway : Kathu – Patong
17,811
EXAT
Revised design and further EIA study. Expect
to open for bidding in 2025 - 2026
Sub total
211,831
Airports of Thailand (AOT)
Don Mueang Phase 3 Expansion
37,000
AOT
Cabinet approved / design is ongoing by AOT
Suvarnabhumi east expansion
8,000
AOT
Cabinet approved / design is ongoing by AOT
/ bidding in 2025
Chiang Mai airport expansion
15,000
AOT
Awaiting cabinet approval / design is ongoing
by AOT
Sub total
60,000
Total
759,995
Source: CK TB, STECON TB, MST
December 17, 2024
17
Strategy Research
Construction materials – POSITIVE
We expect cement demand recovery in 2025E following a weak 2024E.
Cement demand in Thailand decreased by approximately 10% YoY in 1H24,
primarily affected by the delay in the 2024 government budget
disbursement. The situation improved in 3Q24, with demand growing by 2%
YoY following government budget disbursements. For 4Q24, we anticipate
cement demand to grow by 4% YoY, supported by continued budget
disbursements. For the full year 2024, we estimate cement demand will
decline by approximately 4% YoY to 30.9 m tonnes.
For 2025, we estimate cement demand in Thailand to grow by 3-4%,
supported by the following key factors. First, government projects are
expected to progress further, driven by improved political stability and the
disbursement of the 2025 fiscal budget (starting October 2024), which will
provide additional support. Second, the recovery and expansion of the
tourism sector will contribute to construction activity, particularly in the
commercial segment. Last, Maybank IBG Research forecasts GDP growth of
2.8% YoY in 2025, improving from the expected 2.6% YoY growth in 2024.
These factors collectively signal a positive outlook for cement demand in
the coming year.
Fig 35: Thailand’s cement production capacity and demand
Source: MST
Fig 36: The Thai cement price index
Source: Ministry of Commerce
Consumer finance - POSITIVE
We forecast sector loans to grow 7-9% YoY in FY24-26E from 22%/18% in
FY22-23 due to the high base effect and efforts to improve asset quality.
Title loan operators are more focused on secured loans while unsecured
loan operators are more cautious on offering new loans.
We expect sector NIM to increase 20bps YoY to 14.2% in 2025 due to the
anticipated policy rate cut in 1H25. We expect cost of funds to stay
relatively flat YoY in 2025 after it has increased during the interest rate
uptrend in 2023-24.
We expect the sector’s NPL ratio to be flat YoY at 3.44% in 2025. Credit
costs should decline 20bps YoY to 4.1% in 2025 from 4.3% in 2023-24, thanks
to the improving cash collection from a sharper focus on secured loans and
government stimulus policies to support low-income earners.
We expect sector earnings to grow 12% YoY in 2025-26E (vs 0-3% in 2023-24)
from higher NII growth and lower credit costs. Sector ROE is likely to stay
at 15.3-15.5% in 2024-26E from 16.5-20.2% in 2010-23.
60 60 60 60 60
31.3 32.7 32.1 30.9 31.8
0
20
40
60
80
2021 2022 2023 2024E 2025E
Cement capacity Demand
Mn Tons
(-1.8%)
(+4.5%) (-4%) +(3-4)%
85
90
95
100
105
110
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
Index 2015=100
Nov 2024 = 99.1 (-0.8% YoY)
3Q24=99.4 (-0.1% YoY , -0.6%QoQ)
December 17, 2024
18
Strategy Research
Fig 37: Expect sector loan growth of 7-9% YoY in FY24-26E
Source: Company, MST
Fig 38: NIM minus credit cost likely to increase in 2024-26E
Source: Company, MST
Healthcare – POSITIVE
We maintain a positive view on the healthcare sector, projecting 9% YoY
growth in core profits for FY25E. This growth is supported by increasing
revenue from both Thai and foreign patients, driven by trends such as an
aging population and rising medical tourism. Margins are also expected to
expand further, benefiting from economies of scale as revenue grows, with
no major expansion projects planned for this year.
Revenue growth from Thai patients in FY25E is expected to slow to mid-
single digits due to increased competition, stricter insurance
reimbursements, and potential co-payment policies. In contrast, foreign
patient revenue is set to grow at c.8%, outpacing Thai patient growth,
driven by a rebound from Kuwait's revenue drop in 2024 and rising foreign
tourists. BDMS is forecasted to deliver 11% profit growth, while BH’s slower
4% reflects a high base and diversification of hospital choices by Middle
Eastern patients. SSO hospitals like CHG and BCH are projected to grow
profit by 14% and 10% in FY25E, respectively, recovering from FY24E’s low
base caused by reimbursement shortfalls for high-cost care. The SSO has
committed to reinstate normal rates (THB12k/RW) in FY25E, supporting
strong growth ahead.
Our Top Pick is PR9 (Buy, TP THB32). We project it to deliver the highest
growth at 15% YoY in FY25E, with superior long-term growth prospects
driven by: i) Strong international patient revenue growth after successful
Middle East market penetration; ii) sufficient capacity following its high-
capex phase; iii) significant margin improvement from a higher mix of
foreign patients and economies of scale. PR9’s valuation at 24x FY25 P/E
remains attractive, in line with peers despite its higher growth prospects.
22%
18%
7% 9% 8%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
2022 2023 2024E 2025E 2026E
December 17, 2024
19
Strategy Research
Fig 39: A vast market with potential to gain market share
Fig 40: Our forecasts for PR9’s Middle East revenues
Source: Company, MST
Note: Data as of FY23 for BH, BDMS, BCH; 9M24 for PR9
Source: Company, MST
Tech services - POSITIVE
We have a POSITIVE view on Thailand’s tech-service companies thanks to
38% FY25E core profit growth for the sector (vs 6% decline in FY24E). The
turnaround from profit decline in FY24E to profit growth in FY25E should
come from virtual banking projects and the government’s rising IT
investment.
The Bank of Thailand plans to issue three virtual banking licenses in mid-
2025 and require the recipients to start operating by mid-2026. We estimate
THB3.0b–THB5.7b capex by the virtual banks before they can start operating
in mid-2026. BBIK and BE8 will likely be beneficiaries of the new investment
because they are tech experts in the banking industry (most top 10 banks
are their clients). For the virtual banks, BBIK can do product design and
development, mobile application development and project management.
BE8 can deliver CRM platforms, cyber security and software integration. In
FY25E, we believe virtual banking projects alone could lead to revenue
growth of 6-11% for BBIK and 4% for BE8.
The increase in the government’s IT investment in 2025 should stem from
project delays from 2024 and higher capex budget for the government’s
fiscal year 2025 (starting in Oct 2024). We believe the prime beneficiaries
of rising government capex are SKY (i.e. physical security solution,
centralised databases, and USO net, and other platform services) and BE8
(i.e. CRM platforms, cyber security, and software integration).
SKY (BUY, THB29.4 TP) is our first Top Pick among the tech-service
companies because we see it as a prime beneficiary of increases in
passenger flows to Thailand’s airports and rising IT spending by the
government; we forecast core profit growth of 61%/56% in FY24E/25E. BBIK
(BUY, THB50.1 TP) is our second top pick; we forecast FY25E core profit
growth of 30% on the back of virtual banking investment, cloud migration
(starting with large financial institutions) and market share gains from
global players.
6,830
3,883
998
26
27%
4%
9%
2%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
BH BDMS BCH PR9 as
of 9M24
THB m Revenue from Middle East % to total revenue
Combined revenue
of THB11b
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2023 2024E 2025E 2026E
THB m
122% CAGR
December 17, 2024
20
Strategy Research
Fig 41: SKY’s core net profit
Fig 42: Virtual bank capex
Source: Company, MST
Source: Company, MST
Tourism - POSITIVE
We maintain a POSITIVE view on the Thai tourism sector as we expect sector
earnings to post a 20% CAGR in FY25-26E. We also see valuations as
attractive, especially for hoteliers, which are trading at -1.5 SD 5-year P/E
average. Despite slow recovery in travel demand from Chinese tourists, we
expect overall foreign tourist arrivals in 2025 to exceed pre-Covid levels.
This should be driven by high-spending tourists from South Asia, Middle East
and Europe. We estimate tourist arrivals to increase 14% YoY to 41m in
2025E (vs 40m in 2019). On the other hand, hotel supply growth is likely to
be moderate. According to CBRE’s forecast, hotel supply in Bangkok will
increase by 3.8% in 2024 and 4.1% from 2024 to 2026. Therefore, we expect
average ADR to remain high throughout 2025. We also expect no repeat of
the 2019 situation when ADR started to decline after hotel investments
surged in 2018.
AWC is our Top Pick as it should benefit the most from recovery in foreign
tourists in Thailand and hotel portfolio expansion. Our second pick is
CENTEL as it offers the 2nd strongest earnings growth (FY24-26E), supported
by higher RevPAR in Thailand and Japan.
Fig 43: Foreign tourist arrivals in Thailand
Fig 44: Tourism sector core profit
Source: MOTS, MST
Source: Company, MST
-116
337
541
842
1,039
-200
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
2022 2023 2024E 2025E 2026E
THB m
3,000
5,736
1,500
2,868
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
Lower
bound
Upper
bound
Lower
bound
Upper
bound
THB m
2H25E capex
12-month capex
32.5 35.6 38.2 39.9
6.7
0.4
11.2
28.0
36.0
41.0 43.2
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024F
2025F
2026F
Million
arrivals
37%
17% 17%
109%
81%
66%
20%
10% 10%
22%
43%
20%
36%
8% 13% 21% 22% 20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
CENTEL ERW MINT AOT AWC Sector
FY24E FY25E FY26E
December 17, 2024
21
Strategy Research
Utilities - POSITIVE
The recent announcement of the electricity tariff of THB4.15/kWh for Jan-
Apr 2025 was lower than the THB4.18/kWh in FY24. The lower tariff will
have limited impact on the utilities stocks as there will be only a
THB0.03/kWh decline. However, we think the lower tariff will induce
greater uncertainty about the regulator’s policy in the next rounds of tariff
adjustments.
We expect the Small Power Producer (SPP) gas pool price to be at
THB320/mmbtu, 4% lower YoY, due to full capacity of the Erawan gas field
production for the whole year. This should benefit SPPs, especially GPSC
and BGRIM. However, we think the lower SPP gas pool price is not exciting,
and not the main factor that will drive FY25 earnings growth.
We expect the new Power Development Plan (PDP) is likely to be announced
early next year with potential new conventional capacity of 6.9GW; and
new renewable capacity of THB35GW. As a result, we expect to see some
sizable renewable energy bidding for the next year.
Fig 45: New renewable capacity scheduled COD in PDP draft
Source: EPPO, MST
Fig 46: Forecasted spark spread
Source: ERC, MST
Banking - NEUTRAL
We expect weak loan growth in FY25 as the banks remain cautious amid
tightened credit approval standards for SME and retail loans. Auto HP
focused banks are likely to show negative loan growth following weak
domestic auto sales. The slowdown in retail and SME credit expansion is due
to the high household debt level and low ability to service debt.
We see solid recovery in the tourism and service sectors but these require
less capital compared to the manufacturing sectors. Moreover, some sectors
are facing competitive challenges, such as the petrochemical and
automotive-related sectors, leading to reduced business activity and output
as well as loan contraction. According to the NESDB and TTB analytics, the
service sector contributed 64% of Thailand’s GDP in 2023 vs 56% in 2010
while the manufacturing sector accounted for 25% in 2023 vs 31% in 2010.
Our economist expects Thailand’s policy rate to stay at 2.25% in 2025. We
expect sector NIM to drop YoY due to lower loan yield in 2025. There is a
chance that the Bank of Thailand may cut the policy rate in 1H25 given the
weak economic growth and low inflation. On a positive note, auto focused
banks such as KKP and TISCO should benefit from the interest rate
downtrend as their funding costs are likely to decrease at a faster pace than
loan yields in FY25E.
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
2024-30 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037
Solar Wind Biomass
Biogas Flaoting Solar WTE
Small Hydro Geothermal BESS
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
Jan-18
Jun-18
Nov-18
Apr-19
Sep-19
Feb-20
Jul-20
Dec-20
May-21
Oct-21
Mar-22
Aug-22
Jan-23
Jun-23
Nov-23
Apr-24
Sep-24
Feb-25
Jul-25
Dec-25
THB/kWh Spark Spread (THB/kWh)
December 17, 2024
22
Strategy Research
Given slow economic growth and high household debt, some banks have
shifted their strategy to improving ROE by growing highly profitable loans
and reducing excess capital. We expect banks to increase their dividend
payout ratios to improve ROE to c.10%. Some bank such as KKP will
undertake share buybacks to increase ROE.
KKP is our Top Pick in our medium to small-banks coverage, as it has the
highest FY25E EPS growth of 24% YoY, thanks to: (i) lower loss from sales;
(ii) lower cost of funds; (iii) fee income recovery; and (iv) solid capital
management plan. We expect KKP to continue to buy back shares as lending
contracts and amid cheap FY25E valuations. Among the big banks, we prefer
KTB due to its low-risk loan portfolio, good earnings visibility and improving
ROE outlook due to its increasing dividend payout ratio.
Fig 47: ROE to increase from higher dividend payout ratio
Source: Company, MST
Fig 48: Thai bank dividend yields 2025E
Source: Company, MST
Electronics - Neutral
We maintain an overall NEUTRAL view on the sector heading into 2025. We
believe the automotive and industrial segments will continue to struggle
while the AI/data center market looks to regain its growth momentum with
the release of Nvidia’s Blackwell chips. In particular, the demand for data
center looks quite robust, with Bloomberg forecasting the storage market
(HDDs and SSDs, for use in data centers) to continue growing to USD211b
(+12.6% YoY) in FY25E, up from USD187b (+12.2% YoY) in FY24E.
Additionally, the trade war theme seems to be an important consideration
in 2025 with the election of Donald Trump, who will look to try and
strengthen the US’s position in the semiconductor/electronics industry
against China. With Trump, countries that contribute highly to US trade
deficits are at risk of facing increased tariffs – namely China, Vietnam, and
Mexico (top three US trade deficit contributors in 9M24). Manufacturers
with factories in geopolitically neutral countries, such as Thailand, will
stand to benefit.
With regards to exposure to the AI/data center market and the trade war
trend, we pick Cal-comp Electronics PCL (CCET TB, BUY, THB 9.91) as our
Top Pick in this sector. We expect its core earnings to register a 17% CAGR
in FY24-28E, driven by i) an increase in total manufacturing capacity by 87%
at its Phetchaburi and Mahachai facilities, which will serve both new and
existing customers in the HDD, SSD, EV charging, and laser printing space
and ii) improving GPM due to prioritisation of higher-margin products. We
also find SVI (SVI TB, HOLD, THB8.20) interesting with regards to the trade
war theme and available capacity to serve new customers.
7.8%
8.8% 8.9% 9.1% 9.2%
7%
8%
9%
10%
2022 2023 2024E 2025E 2026E
9.1% 8.5% 8.2% 8.0%
5.8% 5.8% 5.2%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
10%
SCB TTB KKP TISCO KBANK KTB BBL
December 17, 2024
23
Strategy Research
Fig 49: Total storage demand
Fig 50: CCET sales and core profit
Source: Company, MST
Source: Company, MST
Oil & gas - NEUTRAL
We have a Neutral view on Thailand’s energy sector as we expect headwinds
from a potential oil price correction. We forecast the Brent oil price to
decline to USD70-71/bbl in 2025-26E compared to USD82/bbl average in
2024E. This is due to a potential oversupply as non-OPEC+ producers are set
to deliver well over 1mbd of additional supply while demand growth is likely
to be less than 1mbd. On top of this, OPEC+’s plan to unwind 2.2mbd of
output cut could add further downward pressure on the oil price.
We continue to prefer refineries over upstream, petrochemical and
integrated segments. BCP and SPRC are our top picks. We expect the
Singapore GRM benchmark to improve to USD6/bbl in 2025-26E from
USD5/bbl in 2024E. This is because the pace of supply addition is likely to
be slower in the next two years. Whereas we expect start-up capacity to
total 1.2mbd in 2024E, we think the pace will slow to less than 0.9mbd in
2025E and potentially further to 0.5mbd in 2026E. Scheduled start-ups look
to accelerate again in 2027-28E to 1.1-1.2mbd p.a. although we think delays
and cancellations could push these capacities out further.
Fig 51: Brent oil prices
Fig 52: Singapore GRM
Source: ISEG, MST
Source: ISEG, MST
Food & beverages - NEUTRAL
We maintain our NEUTRAL view on the Thai food and beverage sector as we
see a less favourable environment to support the sector’s earnings in FY25E.
We are positive on the food sector in 4Q24-1H25E thanks to lower raw
material costs and higher protein prices. However, we expect sector
earnings to peak by 2Q25E, resulting in slower EPS growth in FY25E
compared to FY24E pressured by a s commodity price trend, we maintain
124 132 155 167 187 211 233
6.3%
17.1%
7.8%
12.2% 12.6%
10.3%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
0
50
100
150
200
250
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024E 2025E 2026E
Total storage demand % YoY (RHS)
(USDb)
0.36 0.04
0.51
1.35
1.60
3.34 3.67
4.82
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
50
100
150
200
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
Thousands
CCET Sales
CCET Core Profit (RHS)
(THB b) (THB
b)
70.4
100.0
82.6 82.0
70.0 71.4 72.8
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
2021 2022 2023 2024E 2025E 2026E 2027E
(USD/bbl)
3.4
10.6
6.8
5
6 6 5.5
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
2021 2022 2023 2024E 2025E 2026E 2027E
(USD/bbl)
December 17, 2024
24
Strategy Research
our NEUTRAL view on the Thai food sector. CPF is our Top Pick thanks to its
strong core EPS growth in 1H25E boosted by higher Thai swine prices and
lower feed cost. We have a HOLD rating on TU as we expect its earnings to
be pressured by softer demand growth, higher effective tax rate due to
global minimum tax (GMT) implementation and less favourable cost trend.
We have a HOLD rating on GFPT as its GPM should be pressured by lower
Thai broiler prices and expenses incurred from a new plant in 2H25E.
For beverages, we see a less favourable environment for both ICHI’s and
SAPPE’s sales in FY25E following strong EPS growth in FY22-24 supported by
extreme hot weather in Thailand due to El Nino. This presents a high base
and poses challenges for FY25E. We see cooler weather associated with La
Niña reducing demand for beverages globally. We project ICHI’s and
SAPPE’s sales to grow by 8% and 10%, respectively, in FY25E, slower than
the 10% and 12% growth pace in FY24E. ICHI is our Top Pick in the beverage
sector as we believe it will continue to gain market share and grow along
with the RTD tea industry through its competitive pricing and sales channel
expansion. ICHI also has a better GPM outlook than SAPPE given its
conservative expansion plan in the next few years. It is trading below its 5-
year mean and offering of a 7-8% dividend yield.
Fig 53: Food company projected core net profit growth
Fig 54: Beverage company projected core net profit growth
Source: Company, MST
Source: Company, MST
Fig 55: Commodity prices
Source: Company, MST
197.6%
6.4%
50.4%
3.6% 2.1%
-10.1%
-50%
0%
50%
100%
150%
200%
250%
CPF TU GFPT
FY24E FY25E
27.0%
16.0%
9.0% 7.0%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
ICHI SAPPE
FY24E FY25E
Nov-24 Nov-23 %yoy Oct-24 %mom
Oct-Nov
24
4Q23 % yoy 3Q24 %qoq 11M24 2025E
Thailand (THB/kg)
Broiler 37.0 38.5 -4% 38.5 -3.9% 37.8 37.8 -0.2% 43.0 -12% 41.7 40.0
Swine 73.0 68.0 7% 71.0 2.8% 72.0 65.7 9.6% 71.7 0% 69.6 75.0
Corn 9.8 10.1 -3% 10.0 -2.0% 9.9 10.4 -5.4% 12.0 -18% 10.9 10.0
Imported soybean meal
18.7 22.7 -18% 19.1 -2.1% 18.9 22.0 -14.2% 20.2 -6% 20.8 19.0
China (Rmb/kg)
Swine 17.2 15.0 15% 18.1 -5.1% 17.7 15.2 16.5% 19.7 -10% 17.1 15-16
Vietnam (VND/kg)
Swine 61,000 46,451 31% 61,242 -0.4% 61,121 47,082 29.8% 61,708 -1.0% 59,646 60,000
Thailand (US$/ton)
Tuna price 1,550 1,500 3% 1,500 3.3% 1,480 2,002 -26.1% 1,335 11% 1,431 1,500-1,600
December 17, 2024
25
Strategy Research
Property - NEUTRAL
We think residential pre-sales in Thailand have bottomed in general, but
the pace of recovery may be slow due to the lack of government stimulus.
However, we expect condos and provincial market to outperform the
overall residential market.
The number of condo units sold exceeded the number of condo units
launched over the past 4.5 years (FY21-1H24). This made condos available
for sale decrease by 2.3% on an annualized rate during FY21-1H24. Given
the decline in supply, we expect the demand/supply balance to tighten next
year and see an opportunity for developers to boost their presales from the
condo segment.
Thailand plans to develop integrated entertainment complexes that will
include casinos, hotels, malls, sports facilities and more. The proposal calls
for 5-8 integrated resorts to be constructed in key tourist destinations
across the country. This should boost demand for homes in provinces and
should boost land prices after 3 years of price stagnation. We expect
developers with sizable land banks in tourist destinations to benefit most
from progress in approval for entertainment complexes.
Fig 56: Available-for-sale units breakdown by residential type
Source: AREA, MST
Fig 57: Land Price Index and Construction Material Price Index
Source: BOT, MOC, MST
Retail - NEUTRAL
We expect to see moderate SSSG in the consumer staples segment in FY25E,
underpinned by improving domestic consumption and increasing tourist
arrivals. SSSG of home improvement names are likely to turn positive to the
tune of 1-4% in FY25E from negative 1-4% in FY24E, due to improving
construction activity and the low base effect. We forecast retail sector sales
growth of 6.5% YoY to THB2.13t in FY25E, fueled by positive SSSG and
ongoing store expansion. All retailers under our coverage are expected to
see wider gross margins in FY25E, thanks to better operational efficiency
and rising contributions from high-margin products including private labels.
We anticipate retail sector earnings to grow 14.1% YoY to THB64.18b in
FY25E following growth of 13.3% YoY in FY24E.
We like CRC (CRC TB, CP THB34.00, BUY, TP THB40.00) on the back ofdue
to healthy earnings growth driven by the return of its flagship department
stores, Central Chidlom and Rinascente Milan, coupled with continuing
store expansion of Thaiwatsadu, Go Wholesale and GO! Mall. CRC also
trades at 21.2x FY25E P/E, -1 SD of its 5-year average.
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
90,000
21 22 23 1H24 21 22 23 1H24 21 22 23 1H24
Units
Detached
Townhouse Condo
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
Jan
17
Aug
17
Mar
18
Oct
18
May
19
Dec
19
Jul
20
Feb
21
Sep
21
Apr
22
Nov
22
Jun
23
Jan
24
Index Land Price Index
Construction Materials Price Index
December 17, 2024
26
Strategy Research
Fig 58: Projected SSSG of consumer staples
Fig 59: Projected SSSG of home improvement stores
Source: Company, MST
Source: Company, MST
Telecom - NEUTRAL
We have a NEUTRAL view on the telecom sector as we have only one BUY
rating for TRUE and two HOLD ratings on ADVANC and INTUCH. We forecast
25% FY25E core profit growth for the sector on the back of 81% growth for
TRUE and 11% growth in ADVANC. The sector’s profit growth should come
from: i) 3% core service revenue growth; ii) synergy delivery at TRUE; iii)
operating leverage at ADVANC; and iv) spectrum cost savings after 3 Aug
2025.
The 3% FY25E revenue growth will be supported by 2.5% mobile revenue
growth and 4.2% FBB revenue growth. While mobile revenue should be
boosted by ARPU growth, FBB business should enjoy increases in both ARPU
and subscribers as Thailand’s FBB household penetration rate was only 45%
in 3Q24.
On the spectrum front, we expect TRUE to enjoy THB6.0b annual cost saving
from: i) abandoning the usage of 850MHz spectrum; and ii) switching from
NT lease to cheaper licence for 2300MHz spectrum. The cost savings should
occur after the spectrum leases with NT expire on 3 Aug 2025. On the other
hand, we expect ADVANC to enjoy annual cost savings of only THB412m as
the cost saving from 2100MHz is expected to be largely offset by the
acquisition of the 1800MHz spectrum.
We prefer TRUE (BUY, THB13.8 TP) over ADVANC (HOLD, THB296 TP) thanks
to TRUE’s: i) cheaper valuation (i.e. lower FY24-26E EV/EBITDA); ii)
stronger FY25E core profit growth of 81% (vs ADVANC’s 11%); and iii)
potential upwards earnings revisions by consensus. Our FY24/25E core
profits for TRUE are 5%/16% higher than the Bloomberg consensus. TRUE’s
CFO expects positive net profit in 2025, and a dividend payment in 2H25 is
on the cards (if the board approves). We expect TRUE to turn around from
THB4.4b net loss in FY24E to THB11.1b net profit in FY25E on the back of
rising core profit and declining network impairment. We forecast FY25 DPS
of THB0.16 for TRUE, implying 1% yield.
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
2022 2023 2024E 2025E
7-Eleven Makro Lotus's
Big C CRC
-15.0%
-10.0%
-5.0%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
2022 2023 2024E 2025E
Home Pro Mega Home Global
Dohome Thaiwatsadu
December 17, 2024
27
Strategy Research
Fig 60: Industry mobile ARPU to grow 2% pa in FY25-27E
Source: Company, MST
Fig 61: TRUE’s core net profit and net profit
Source: Company, MST
Auto - NEGATIVE
We view the automotive sector as NEGATIVE due to the severely weak
domestic car market. We anticipate that the strict auto loan approval
processes by financial institutions, due to high household debt, will
continue to pressure the domestic market in the 1H25. The 1H25 outlook
remains weak but should decline less than 1H24. A gradual recovery in the
auto industry is anticipated, likely starting in 3Q25. Overall, in 2025, we
expect automotive production to recover modestly, increasing by
approximately 3% YoY from the low base in 2024.
The Automotive Industry Club of the Federation of Thai Industries (FTI.) has
revised its 2024 vehicle sales target down to 1.5m units (-19% YoY), a
reduction from the previous estimate of 1.7m units. The breakdown is as
follows: Domestic sales: 450,000 units (-34% YoY) and Exports: 1.05m units
(-9% YoY).
Fig 62: Annual Thai vehicle output
Fig 63: Monthly Thai vehicle output
Source: The Federation of Thai Industries
Source: The Federation of Thai Industries
234
223
211 211
219
224
229
234
190
200
210
220
230
240
250
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024E 2025E 2026E 2027E
THB/mth Mobile ARPU
- Easing competition
- Improving purchasing
power
- Cross-selling and
upselling
- Price war
- Weak purchasing
power
8.7
15.8
18.3
-4.4
11.1
18.3
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
2024E 2025E 2026E
THB b Core net profit/(loss) Net profit/(loss)
1,336 880 799 769 862 1,025 977 722 729 846 686 450 465
1,121
1,122
1,200
1,189 1,126
1,143
1,037 705 957 1,037
1,156
1,050
1,080
2,457
1,880
1,9131,9441,9892,168
2,014
1,4271,686
1,8841,842
1,500 1,545
-
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024E
2025E
Domestic Export Production
1,000
3.6% CAGR
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
Jan-22
Mar
May
Jul
Sep
Nov
Jan-23
Mar
May
Jul
Sep
Nov
Jan-24
Mar
May
Jul
Sep
Production Domestic Export
Units
December 17, 2024
28
Strategy Research
5. Our top BUY ideas
We have selected 6 stocks as our top BUY ideas as we head into 2025E.
These follow two main themes: policy plays and Trump 2.0 beneficiaries.
Fig 64: MST top focus ideas
Bloomberg
Mkt cap
Rating
Price
TP
Upside
P/E (x)
P/B (x)
ROE (%)
Div yld (%)
code
(USDm)
(THB)
(THB)
(%)
24E
25E
24E
25E
24E
25E
24E
25E
CCET TB
2,924
BUY
9.55
9.91
4
29.9
27.2
3.5
3.3
12.2
12.4
2.0
2.2
AAV TB
1,062
BUY
2.82
3.40
21
12.7
11.0
3.2
2.5
29.0
25.6
0.0
0.0
CK TB
972
BUY
19.60
27.50
40
17.5
15.2
1.2
1.2
7.2
7.9
2.0
2.3
TASCO TB
911
BUY
19.70
19.50
-1
14.2
12.1
1.9
1.8
13.4
15.1
5.6
6.6
SKY TB
525
BUY
24.00
29.40
23
31.8
20.4
3.3
2.9
10.0
15.0
0.0
0.0
TLI TB
3,590
NR*
10.70
13.38
25
11.6
11.4
1.1
1.0
9.7
9.2
3.2
3.3
Note: * NR = Not Rated estimates and TP based on Bloomberg
Source: Company, MST, Bloomberg
5.1 Policy plays
TASCO and CK remain our Top Picks as plays on government spending. We
are also adding SKY as we think the company will benefit from increased
government IT projects.
TASCO
TASCO is our Top Pick in the construction materials space. We expect 17%
YoY profit growth in 2025E. This is driven by remaining FY24 budget
disbursement and 8.5% growth in the FY25 budget for road repair and
construction. We also expect higher output at its Malaysian refinery as the
company has been able to secure more heavy crude oil cargoes.
CK
CK is our Top Pick in the construction services sector. We forecast 15%/24%
EPS growth in FY25-26E supported by growth in construction revenue as well
as profit contributions from subsidiaries. In addition to the current record-
high backlog of THB220b, we believe CK will secure additional projects from
its subsidiary BEM in 2025. New projects may include the Double-Deck
Expressway Project (Ngam Wong Wan – Rama IX Road) valued at THB35b,
which has passed the Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) process and is
expected to be finalised and submitted to the Cabinet by early 2025.
Another potential project is Southern Purple Line (Tao Poon – Rat Burana)
M&E Works, valued at THB27b, with a resolution expected by the end of
2024 and Cabinet approval anticipated in 1Q25. These two projects are
expected to increase CK’s backlog to THB280b, extending the new S-curve
and supporting construction revenue of THB40-50b annually over the next
5-6 years. Besides a strong operational outlook, a share buyback program
worth THB3b should provide further support to share price.
SKY
SKY is our Top Pick among the tech-service companies because we see it as
a prime beneficiary of increases in passenger flows to Thailand’s airports
and rising IT spending by the government. Following 61% core EPS growth in
FY24E, we forecast 56% FY25E core profit growth. On top of passenger
processing services and AOTGA, new growth drivers in FY25E are: i) 213%
rise in system integration (SI) revenue; ii) biometric scans at AOT’s airports
(THB2/pax for outbound passengers); and iii) CUPPS revenue from DOA’s
airports. The big jump in SI revenue in FY25E should come from delayed
government projects from 2024 (late budget approval for fiscal year 2024).
December 17, 2024
29
Strategy Research
A potential upside is the ground handling project at Suvarnabhumi Airport’s
SAT-1 terminal; the bidding is scheduled to occur in Mar 2025. Another
potential upside for FY25-26E is increases in cloud adoption by the
government (i.e. ERP solutions, and data gateway).
5.2 Trump 2.0 beneficiaries
For Trump beneficiaries, we like CCET as a potential trade war beneficiary.
We also expect AAV to enjoy not only tourism growth but also lower oil
prices. We also think TLI (not rated) could benefit from a steepening yield
curve and changes to accounting rules which could help drive its earnings
growth in 2025E.
CCET – a play on accelerating China+1 trend
CCET is our Top Pick in the electronics space. The company is set to nearly
double its production capacity in Thailand with its factory expansions in
Phetchaburi and Mahachai, both of which are set to begin mass production
by 1H25E. These factories will focus on higher-margin and growth products,
such as SSDs, laser printers, and EV chargers. With customers already
secured in one of its new factories, we expect CCET’s sales to grow at a
11% CAGR in FY24-28E. Besides top-line growth, we expect margin
expansion for CCET. We think management’s focus on higher-margin
products will help GPM gradually expand to 6.6% in FY28E, up from 5.2% in
FY23. This improved product mix, along with lower interest expenses,
should help drive bottom line margin expansion to 3.2% in FY28E, up from
1.1% in FY23.
AAV – beneficiary of tourism growth and lower oil prices
AAV is our Top Pick among Thai airlines, given its leadership in the domestic
market and potential for revenue growth from new international routes.
AAV also stands to benefit from lower fuel costs and peaking maintenance
expense. A potential merger with Thai AirAsia X and overseas route
expansions could offer upside through cost savings and improved passenger
connectivity. We view the current valuation at 11x P/E as attractive in light
of 12% EPS growth in FY24-26E.
TLI (not rated)
We think TLI is one of the best proxies on potential yield curve steepening.
This stems from a duration-gap perspective where its liability duration is
c.1 year longer than its asset duration, and rising yield means the value of
liability drops much faster than that of its assets. We also think a steeper
yield curve could help make life insurance products (typically very long-
dated) become more attractive vs short-term investment products. Last,
the change to IFRS17 accounting standards will likely help unlock TLI’s
profits as it would more closely show the higher profitability of the products
being sold in recent years.
December 17, 2024
30
Strategy Research
Appendix
MST coverage valuations
Analyst MktCap Price Fair Upside
Ticker Recom. (THBm) (THB) Value Gain FY24E FY25E FY24E FY25E FY24E FY25E FY24E FY25E FY24E FY25E FY24E FY25E FY24E FY25E FY24E FY25E
Agribusiness 13,165 1,969 1,769 50.4 -10.1
GFPT SELL Tanida 13,165 10.50 9.90 -6% 1,969 1,769 1.57 1.41 50.4 -10.1 6.7 7.4 0.7 0.6 0.19 0.17 1.9% 1.6% 10.7% 8.8%
Banking 1,733,419 218,492 233,054 6.3 6.7
BBL BUY Jesada 286,326 150.00 190.00 27% 43,593 46,472 22.84 24.35 4.7 6.6 6.6 6.2 0.5 0.5 7.50 8.00 5.0% 5.3% 8.0% 8.1%
CREDIT BUY Jesada 22,351 18.10 29.00 60% 3,031 3,499 2.53 2.84 -17.1 12.4 7.2 6.4 1.0 0.9 0.24 0.28 1.3% 1.5% 15.2% 14.6%
KBANK BUY Jesada 374,354 158.00 165.00 4% 46,789 50,034 19.75 21.12 10.3 6.9 8.0 7.5 0.7 0.6 8.00 9.00 5.1% 5.7% 8.5% 8.6%
KKP BUY Jesada 43,202 52.00 65.00 25% 4,517 5,568 5.37 6.66 -16.5 24.1 9.7 7.8 0.7 0.7 3.00 4.25 5.8% 8.2% 7.3% 8.7%
KTB BUY Jesada 297,690 21.30 25.00 17% 41,504 43,858 2.97 3.14 13.4 5.7 7.2 6.8 0.7 0.6 1.12 1.25 5.3% 5.9% 10.0% 9.8%
SCB HOLD Jesada 399,002 118.50 118.00 0% 43,497 45,188 12.92 13.42 -0.1 3.9 9.2 8.8 0.8 0.8 10.33 10.73 8.7% 9.1% 9.0% 9.2%
TCAP HOLD Jesada 52,430 50.00 54.00 8% 7,282 8,007 6.94 7.64 10.3 10.0 7.2 6.5 0.7 0.7 3.30 3.40 6.6% 6.8% 10.1% 10.5%
TISCO HOLD Jesada 78,063 97.50 105.00 8% 7,093 7,284 8.86 9.10 -2.9 2.7 11.0 10.7 1.8 1.8 7.75 8.00 7.9% 8.2% 16.5% 16.6%
TTB BUY Jesada 180,000 1.85 2.20 19% 21,188 23,144 0.22 0.24 14.5 9.1 8.5 7.8 0.7 0.7 0.13 0.15 7.1% 8.4% 9.0% 9.4%
Construction Materials 373,391 24,071 30,956 -11.6 28.6
DCC HOLD Surachai 16,367 1.80 2.24 24% 1,303 1,336 0.14 0.15 3.2 2.6 12.6 12.3 2.4 2.2 0.07 0.07 4.0% 4.1% 20.3% 18.8%
DRT HOLD Surachai 6,541 7.65 8.50 11% 659 695 0.77 0.81 5.4 5.4 9.9 9.4 2.3 2.1 0.54 0.57 7.1% 7.4% 24.4% 23.7%
EPG BUY Surachai 11,368 4.06 7.80 92% 1,446 1,403 0.52 0.50 17.4 -3.0 7.9 8.1 0.9 0.9 0.22 0.26 5.4% 6.3% 9.8% 9.5%
SCC HOLD Surachai 208,800 174.00 225.00 29% 8,657 14,634 7.21 12.19 -34.9 69.0 24.1 14.3 0.6 0.6 4.00 6.00 2.3% 3.4% 2.4% 3.9%
SCCC BUY Surachai 48,425 162.50 195.00 20% 3,821 4,134 12.82 13.87 45.6 8.2 12.7 11.7 1.4 1.3 11.00 11.00 6.8% 6.8% 11.5% 11.7%
TASCO BUY Surachai 31,094 19.70 19.50 -1% 2,196 2,561 1.39 1.62 -9.7 16.6 14.2 12.1 1.9 1.8 1.11 1.30 5.6% 6.6% 13.4% 15.1%
TOA BUY Surachai 29,779 14.90 30.00 101% 2,795 3,042 1.38 1.50 6.8 8.8 10.8 9.9 2.0 1.8 0.76 0.82 5.1% 5.5% 18.9% 18.7%
TPIPL BUY Surachai 21,018 1.11 1.70 53% 3,194 3,151 0.17 0.17 2.1 -1.4 6.6 6.7 0.4 0.4 0.10 0.10 8.8% 8.7% 5.8% 5.6%
Commerce 1,785,218 77,155 85,536 14.3 10.9
BJC BUY Suttatip 96,187 24.00 31.00 29% 4,648 5,211 1.16 1.30 -1.3 12.1 20.7 18.5 0.8 0.8 0.80 0.85 3.3% 3.5% 3.4% 4.3%
COM 7 BUY Wasu 63,585 27.00 30.00 11% 3,313 3,721 1.41 1.58 17.1 12.3 19.2 17.1 7.0 5.9 0.83 0.87 3.1% 3.2% 39.2% 37.4%
CPALL BUY Suttatip 561,444 62.50 81.00 30% 23,886 26,168 2.66 2.91 31.7 9.6 23.5 21.5 4.5 4.0 1.20 1.31 1.9% 2.1% 20.3% 19.6%
CPAXT BUY Suttatip 362,361 34.75 37.25 7% 10,301 12,344 0.98 1.18 18.2 20.7 35.4 29.4 1.2 1.2 0.60 0.65 1.7% 1.9% 3.5% 4.1%
CPN BUY Wasu 258,060 57.50 79.00 37% 16,873 17,637 3.76 3.93 11.1 4.5 15.3 14.6 2.6 2.4 2.02 2.11 3.5% 3.7% 17.5% 16.8%
CRC BUY Suttatip 202,039 33.50 40.00 19% 8,543 9,695 1.42 1.61 4.6 13.5 23.7 20.8 2.8 2.6 0.60 0.64 1.8% 1.9% 11.8% 12.9%
DOHO M E HO LD Suttatip 31,649 9.80 10.80 10% 688 933 0.22 0.29 25.6 32.7 45.0 33.9 2.5 2.3 0.06 0.09 0.7% 0.9% 5.5% 7.1%
GLOBAL HOLD Suttatip 81,669 15.70 16.60 6% 2,348 2,848 0.46 0.55 -15.7 18.9 34.1 28.7 3.3 3.1 0.18 0.22 1.2% 1.4% 9.8% 11.1%
HM PRO BUY Suttatip 128,224 9.75 13.00 33% 6,556 6,980 0.50 0.53 1.8 6.5 19.6 18.4 4.8 4.6 0.41 0.44 4.2% 4.5% 25.0% 25.4%
ICT 1,743,532 74,709 87,222 39.9 16.7
ADVANC HOLD Wasu 853,598 287.00 296.00 3% 33,855 37,440 11.38 12.59 18.7 10.6 25.2 22.8 9.0 8.6 10.08 11.08 3.5% 3.9% 36.8% 38.6%
DIF HOLD Wasu 94,090 8.85 9.20 4% 11,754 11,782 1.11 1.11 -0.8 0.2 8.0 8.0 0.5 0.5 0.88 0.88 9.9% 9.9% 6.5% 6.4%
HUM AN BUY Wasu 7,894 9.10 12.60 38% 320 366 0.37 0.42 6.1 14.4 24.7 21.6 2.1 2.1 0.30 0.34 3.3% 3.7% 8.9% 9.8%
INTUCH HOLD Wasu 318,264 99.25 107.00 8% 13,617 14,987 4.25 4.67 20.2 10.1 23.4 21.2 11.8 11.0 8.49 4.16 8.5% 4.2% 40.8% 53.6%
3BBIF HOLD Wasu 44,800 5.60 6.00 7% 5,874 5,987 0.73 0.75 -26.2 1.9 7.6 7.5 0.7 0.7 0.70 0.57 12.5% 10.2% 8.7% 8.8%
SKY BUY Wasu 17,172 24.00 29.40 23% 541 842 0.76 1.18 50.5 55.7 31.8 20.4 3.3 2.9 0.00 0.00 0.0% 0.0% 10.0% 15.0%
TRUE BUY Wasu 407,715 11.80 13.80 17% 8,750 15,817 0.25 0.46 226.7 80.8 46.6 25.8 5.0 4.4 0.00 0.16 0.0% 1.4% -5.3% 12.8%
ETRON 2,056,662 30,433 29,110 31.2 -4.3
CCET Buy Yugi 99,798 9.55 9.91 4% 3,338 3,667 0.32 0.35 28.3 9.9 29.9 27.2 3.5 3.3 0.19 0.21 2.0% 2.2% 12.2% 12.4%
DELTA Hold Yugi 1,889,784 151.50 124.20 -18% 21,738 19,841 1.74 1.59 26.4 -8.7 86.9 95.2 22.3 19.3 0.55 0.80 0.4% 0.5% 30.0% 21.7%
HANA Buy Yugi 22,798 25.75 52.22 103% 1,698 1,987 1.92 2.24 -10.0 17.0 13.4 11.5 0.8 0.7 0.96 1.12 3.7% 4.4% 5.7% 6.5%
KCE Sell Yugi 28,134 23.80 29.99 26% 2,152 2,076 1.82 1.76 25.2 -3.5 13.1 13.6 2.0 1.9 1.59 1.54 6.7% 6.5% 15.4% 14.4%
SVI Hold Yugi 16,149 7.50 8.20 9% 1,508 1,539 0.70 0.71 59.8 2.1 10.7 10.5 2.0 1.8 0.25 0.25 3.3% 3.3% 20.4% 18.2%
Oil & Gas 1,570,582 209,249 212,407 0.2 1.5
BCP BUY Chak 40,275 29.25 62.00 112% 8,863 13,173 6.44 9.57 1.6 48.6 4.5 3.1 0.6 0.5 1.90 2.90 6.5% 9.9% 13.6% 18.0%
IRPC HOLD Chak 28,199 1.38 2.10 52% -185 1,153 -0.01 0.06 94.6 -722.7 -152.4 24.5 0.4 0.4 0.00 0.04 0.0% 2.9% -0.2% 1.5%
PTT BUY Chak 906,875 31.75 38.00 20% 105,089 107,359 3.68 3.76 2.1 2.2 8.6 8.4 0.8 0.8 1.84 1.88 5.8% 5.9% 9.4% 9.8%
PTTEP BUY Chak 484,338 122.00 158.00 30% 78,692 68,302 19.82 17.20 0.0 -13.2 6.2 7.1 0.9 0.9 9.91 8.60 8.1% 7.1% 15.2% 12.4%
SPRC BUY Chak 29,918 6.90 11.10 61% 5,456 6,396 1.26 1.48 1,323.3 17.2 5.5 4.7 0.7 0.6 0.57 0.66 8.2% 9.6% 13.4% 13.1%
TOP BUY Chak 80,977 36.25 70.00 93% 11,336 16,024 5.07 7.17 -47.7 41.4 7.1 5.1 0.5 0.4 1.98 2.80 5.5% 7.7% 6.7% 9.1%
Utilities 1,034,957 39,120 46,132 11.6 17.9
BCPG BUY Natchaphon 16,926 5.65 8.10 43% 1,035 1,028 0.35 0.34 16.9 -0.6 16.4 16.5 0.6 0.5 0.14 0.14 2.4% 2.4% 5.0% 3.3%
BGRIM HOLD Natchaphon 53,702 20.60 24.00 17% 2,101 2,402 0.47 0.56 -5.9 17.8 43.6 37.0 1.4 1.3 0.40 0.46 2.0% 2.2% 5.4% 6.0%
CKP BUY Surachai 26,664 3.28 4.50 37% 1,829 2,116 0.23 0.26 25.1 15.7 14.6 12.6 0.9 0.9 0.09 0.09 2.7% 2.8% 6.6% 7.3%
EGCO BUY Natchaphon 63,965 121.50 155.00 28% 9,491 8,827 18.03 16.77 8.7 -7.0 6.7 7.2 0.6 0.6 6.50 6.50 5.3% 5.3% 7.5% 6.6%
GPSC BUY Natchaphon 119,134 42.25 49.00 16% 4,263 5,835 1.51 2.07 26.5 36.9 27.9 20.4 1.1 1.1 0.91 1.24 2.1% 2.9% 4.0% 5.3%
GULF HOLD Natchaphon 718,655 61.25 64.00 4% 17,830 23,301 1.52 1.56 14.0 2.6 40.3 39.3 5.9 3.5 0.96 0.96 1.6% 1.6% 15.8% 12.5%
TTW BUY Natchaphon 35,910 9.00 10.00 11% 2,571 2,623 0.64 0.66 -12.0 2.0 14.0 13.7 2.3 2.3 0.60 0.60 6.7% 6.7% 16.8% 16.9%
Petrochem 111,819 1,540 2,624 nm 70.3
PTTGC HOLD Chak 111,819 24.80 26.00 5% 1,540 2,624 0.34 0.58 nm 70.3 72.6 42.6 0.4 0.4 0.17 0.17 0.7% 0.7% 0.5% 0.9%
Fashion 7,124 525 579 13.4 10.3
SABINA BUY Suttatip 7,124 20.50 32.50 59% 525 579 1.51 1.67 13.4 10.3 13.6 12.3 3.7 3.6 1.51 1.67 7.4% 8.1% 27.7% 29.9%
Core EPS (THB)
EPS Growth (%)
Core Profit (THBm)
ROE (%)
Dividend Yield (%)
PER (x)
P/BV (x)
DPS (THB)
December 17, 2024
31
Strategy Research
MST coverage valuations
Analyst MktCap Price Fair Upside
Ticker Recom. (THBm) (THB) Value Gain FY24E FY25E FY24E FY25E FY24E FY25E FY24E FY25E FY24E FY25E FY24E FY25E FY24E FY25E FY24E FY25E
Finance & Securities 389,089 27,176 30,008 1.5 10.4
AEONTS BUY Jesada 30,875 123.50 160.00 30% 3,259 3,145 13.04 12.58 -14.6 -3.5 9.5 9.8 1.3 1.2 5.50 5.50 4.5% 4.5% 13.8% 12.4%
ASK HOLD Jesada 5,542 10.50 13.00 24% 406 646 0.77 1.22 -66.7 59.2 13.7 8.6 0.5 0.5 0.38 0.61 3.6% 5.8% 3.8% 6.0%
KTC HOLD Jesada 125,694 48.75 50.00 3% 7,450 7,861 2.89 3.05 2.1 5.5 16.9 16.0 3.2 2.9 1.44 1.52 3.0% 3.1% 19.7% 18.7%
M TC BUY Jesada 106,000 50.00 60.00 20% 5,769 6,772 2.72 3.19 17.6 17.4 18.4 15.7 2.8 2.4 0.27 0.31 0.5% 0.6% 16.7% 16.8%
SAK BUY Jesada 10,480 5.00 6.70 34% 858 979 0.41 0.47 14.4 14.1 12.2 10.7 1.6 1.5 0.17 0.19 3.4% 3.8% 14.1% 14.7%
SAWAD HOLD Jesada 61,551 40.75 46.00 13% 5,347 6,009 3.54 3.98 -2.8 12.4 11.5 10.2 1.8 1.6 1.80 1.80 4.4% 4.4% 16.6% 16.4%
TIDLOR BUY Jesada 48,947 16.80 22.00 31% 4,088 4,596 1.40 1.58 4.0 12.4 12.0 10.7 1.5 1.4 0.42 0.47 2.5% 2.8% 13.6% 13.7%
Food & Beverage 449,536 30,389 31,747 nm 4.5
CBG HOLD Suttatip 79,750 79.75 78.00 -2% 2,824 3,083 2.82 3.08 46.7 9.2 28.2 25.9 6.0 5.3 1.25 1.40 1.6% 1.8% 22.9% 21.9%
CPF BUY Tanida 197,833 24.00 28.75 20% 16,138 16,718 1.92 1.99 n.m. 3.6 12.5 12.1 0.9 0.9 1.07 1.06 4.5% 4.4% 9.0% 7.8%
ICHI BUY Tanida 19,240 14.80 20.60 39% 1,398 1,543 1.08 1.19 27.0 10.4 13.8 12.5 3.3 3.3 1.10 1.20 7.4% 8.1% 24.2% 26.5%
SAPPE HOLD Tanida 22,813 74.00 79.00 7% 1,246 1,335 4.04 4.33 16.0 7.1 18.3 17.1 5.3 4.8 2.72 3.30 3.7% 4.5% 30.7% 29.3%
OSP HOLD Suttatip 63,680 21.20 24.60 16% 3,223 3,312 1.07 1.10 47.8 2.7 19.8 19.2 3.8 3.6 0.75 0.90 3.5% 4.2% 17.4% 19.2%
SNNP BUY Suttatip 11,328 11.80 18.00 53% 667 760 0.69 0.79 4.8 14.1 17.0 14.9 3.3 3.1 0.55 0.60 4.7% 5.1% 20.1% 21.7%
TU HOLD Tanida 54,891 12.90 14.70 14% 4,894 4,996 1.07 1.12 8.8 4.4 12.0 11.5 1.0 1.0 0.58 0.62 4.5% 4.8% 9.8% 9.0%
Healthcare 633,682 27,191 29,673 10.9 9.1
BCH HOLD Nontapat 41,646 16.70 18.50 11% 1,420 1,568 0.57 0.63 -8.8 10.4 29.3 26.6 3.2 3.0 0.31 0.34 1.8% 2.0% 10.8% 11.5%
BDM S BUY Nontapat 389,354 24.50 36.00 47% 16,280 18,025 1.02 1.13 13.3 10.7 23.9 21.6 3.9 3.7 0.74 0.82 3.0% 3.3% 16.7% 17.5%
BH BUY Nontapat 153,419 193.00 250.00 30% 7,672 7,995 9.65 10.06 9.9 4.2 20.0 19.2 5.6 4.9 4.83 5.03 2.5% 2.6% 30.0% 27.3%
CHG BUY Nontapat 28,820 2.62 3.50 34% 1,100 1,255 0.10 0.11 5.1 14.1 26.2 23.0 3.7 3.6 0.07 0.08 2.8% 3.2% 14.3% 15.8%
PR9 BUY Nontapat 20,444 26.00 32.00 23% 719 830 0.91 1.06 28.9 15.4 28.4 24.6 3.8 3.4 0.41 0.47 1.6% 1.8% 13.7% 14.6%
Packaging 88,863 4,359 4,804 -15.3 10.2
SCGP HOLD Surachai 88,863 20.70 25.50 23% 4,359 4,804 1.02 1.12 -15.3 10.2 20.4 18.5 1.1 1.1 0.45 0.50 2.2% 2.4% 5.5% 6.1%
Hotels 335,491 12,630 14,696 26.1 16.4
AWC BUY Boonyakorn 114,578 3.58 4.20 17% 2,034 2,909 0.06 0.09 80.9 43.0 56.3 39.4 1.3 1.3 0.03 0.04 0.7% 1.0% 2.3% 3.3%
CENTEL BUY Boonyakorn 47,250 35.00 44.00 26% 1,427 1,708 1.06 1.27 37.1 19.8 33.1 27.7 2.3 2.2 0.42 0.51 1.2% 1.4% 7.1% 8.1%
ERW BUY Boonyakorn 19,157 3.92 5.00 28% 844 933 0.17 0.19 8.8 10.5 22.7 20.5 2.5 2.3 0.00 0.04 0.0% 1.0% 12.2% 11.7%
M INT BUY Boonyakorn 154,507 27.25 36.00 32% 8,325 9,144 1.27 1.43 14.6 12.6 21.5 19.1 1.8 1.7 0.29 0.32 1.1% 1.2% 10.3% 10.2%
Trans 1,074,208 29,643 35,150 82.5 18.6
AOT BUY Boonyakorn 874,999 61.25 75.00 22% 19,359 23,621 1.36 1.65 110.8 22.0 45.2 37.0 7.0 6.4 0.37 0.81 0.6% 1.3% 16.5% 18.1%
AAV BUY Boonyakorn 36,237 2.82 3.40 21% 2,855 3,301 0.22 0.26 512.8 15.6 12.7 11.0 3.2 2.5 0.00 0.00 0.0% 0.0% 29.0% 25.6%
BA BUY Boonyakorn 49,140 23.40 28.50 22% 3,588 4,024 1.71 1.92 15.4 12.2 13.7 12.2 2.7 2.5 1.28 1.44 5.5% 6.1% 20.4% 21.3%
BEM BUY Boonyakorn 113,832 7.60 10.80 42% 3,842 4,203 0.25 0.27 10.4 9.4 30.2 27.6 3.0 2.8 0.15 0.14 2.0% 1.8% 10.0% 10.4%
Construction Services 45,697 2,490 2,839 27.3 14.0
CK BUY Surachai 33,165 19.60 27.50 40% 1,894 2,179 1.12 1.29 30.5 15.0 17.5 15.2 1.2 1.2 0.39 0.45 2.0% 2.3% 7.2% 7.9%
STECON HOLD Surachai 12,532 8.25 9.50 15% 595 660 0.39 0.43 18.0 10.9 21.1 19.1 0.7 0.7 0.20 0.22 2.4% 2.6% 3.3% 3.6%
Property 167,206 22,072 23,985 -13.5 8.7
AP BUY Natchaphon 27,055 8.60 12.40 44% 5,267 5,667 1.67 1.80 -13.0 7.6 5.1 4.8 0.6 0.6 0.59 0.63 6.8% 7.3% 12.4% 12.3%
LH HOLD Natchaphon 60,944 5.10 5.20 2% 4,204 4,739 0.35 0.40 -27.4 12.7 14.5 12.9 1.2 1.1 0.44 0.32 8.7% 6.2% 12.7% 8.9%
SC BUY Natchaphon 12,062 2.82 3.30 17% 1,849 2,046 0.43 0.48 -28.2 10.7 6.5 5.9 0.5 0.5 0.17 0.19 6.1% 6.8% 7.8% 8.2%
SIRI BUY Natchaphon 30,624 1.77 2.00 13% 5,142 5,250 0.29 0.30 0.7 2.1 6.1 5.9 0.6 0.6 0.21 0.16 11.6% 9.2% 13.9% 10.5%
SPALI BUY Natchaphon 36,522 18.70 24.00 28% 5,610 6,283 2.87 3.22 -6.3 12.0 6.5 5.8 0.7 0.6 1.44 1.61 7.7% 8.6% 10.8% 11.5%
REIT 44,539 4,180 3,822 6.2 -8.6
CPNREIT HOLD Wasu 44,539 12.30 11.40 -7% 4,180 3,822 1.63 1.06 6.2 -35.2 7.6 11.7 1.0 1.2 1.10 1.09 8.9% 8.9% 10.0% -5.3%
Automotive 26,826 3,264 3,117 -26.9 -4.5
AH HOLD Surachai 5,445 16.20 20.00 23% 913 950 2.57 2.68 -47.8 4.0 6.3 6.1 0.5 0.5 0.97 0.99 6.0% 6.1% 8.5% 8.3%
SAT HOLD Surachai 4,677 11.00 11.50 5% 624 636 1.47 1.50 -35.8 1.9 7.5 7.4 0.6 0.6 1.03 1.04 9.3% 9.5% 7.6% 7.6%
STANLY HOLD Surachai 16,704 218.00 200.00 -8% 1,726 1,531 22.53 19.98 -1.1 -11.3 9.7 10.9 0.8 0.8 20.00 15.00 9.2% 6.9% 8.2% 7.1%
Mai 15,311 658 817 -8.6 24.3
BBIK BUY Wasu 8,251 41.25 50.10 21% 293 380 1.46 1.90 2.9 29.7 28.2 21.7 3.8 3.3 0.39 0.52 1.0% 1.3% 14.0% 16.3%
BE8 BUY Wasu 3,521 13.30 20.50 54% 157 259 0.59 0.98 -38.2 64.8 22.4 13.6 1.2 1.1 0.12 0.20 0.9% 1.5% 5.5% 8.6%
NETBAY BUY Wasu 3,540 17.70 20.50 16% 207 179 1.04 0.89 15.1 -13.9 17.1 19.8 6.5 6.7 0.99 0.85 5.6% 4.8% 39.0% 33.3%
DPS (THB)
Dividend Yield (%)
ROE (%)
Core Profit (THBm)
Core EPS (THB)
EPS Growth (%)
PER (x)
P/BV (x)
December 17, 2024
32
Strategy Research
Research Offices
ECONOMICS
Suhaimi ILIAS
Chief Economist
Malaysia | Philippines | Global
(603) 2297 8682
suhaimi_ilias@maybank-ib.com
CHUA Hak Bin
Regional Thematic Macroeconomist
(65) 6231 5830
chuahb@maybank.com
Erica TAY
China | Thailand
(65) 6231 5844
erica.tay@maybank.com
Brian LEE Shun Rong
Indonesia | Singapore | Vietnam
(65) 6231 5846
brian.lee1@maybank.com
Fatin Nabila MOHD ZAINI
Malaysia | Philippines
(603) 2297 8685
fatinnabila.mohdzaini@maybank-ib.com
Luong Thu Huong
(65) 6231 8467
hana.thuhuong@maybank.com
LEE Jia Yu
(65) 6231 5843
jiayu.lee@maybank.com
FX
Saktiandi SUPAAT
Head of FX Research
(65) 6320 1379
saktiandi@maybank.com
Fiona LIM
(65) 6320 1374
fionalim@maybank.com
Alan LAU, CFA
(65) 6320 1378
alanlau@maybank.com
Shaun LIM
(65) 6320 1371
shaunlim@maybank.com
STRATEGY
Anand PATHMAKANTHAN
ASEAN
(603) 2297 8783
anand.pathmakanthan@maybank-ib.com
FIXED INCOME
Winson PHOON, FCA
Head of Fixed Income
(65) 6231 5831
winsonphoon@maybank.com
SOH Jing Ying
(603) 2074 7606
jingying.soh@maybank.com
PORTFOLIO STRATEGY
ONG Seng Yeow
(65) 6231 5839
ongsengyeow@maybank.com
MIBG SUSTAINABILITY RESEARCH
Jigar SHAH
Head of Sustainability Research
(91) 22 4223 2632
jigars@maybank.com
Neerav DALAL
(91) 22 4223 2606
neerav@maybank.com
REGIONAL EQUITIES
Anand PATHMAKANTHAN
Head of Regional Equity Research
(603) 2297 8783
anand.pathmakanthan@maybank-ib.com
WONG Chew Hann, CA
Head of ASEAN Equity Research
(603) 2297 8686
wchewh@maybank-ib.com
MALAYSIA
LIM Sue Lin, Co-Head of Research
(603) 2297 8612
suelin.lim@maybank-ib.com
• Equity Strategy
WONG Chew Hann, CA Co-Head of Research
(603) 2297 8686
wchewh@maybank-ib.com
• Equity Strategy
• Non-Bank Financials (stock exchange)
• Construction & Infrastructure
Desmond CH’NG, BFP, FCA
(603) 2297 8680
desmond.chng@maybank-ib.com
• Banking & Finance
ONG Chee Ting, CA
(603) 2297 8678
ct.ong@maybank-ib.com
• Plantations - Regional
YIN Shao Yang, CPA
(603) 2297 8916
samuel.y@maybank-ib.com
• Gaming – Regional
• Media • Aviation • Non-Bank Financials
TAN Chi Wei, CFA
(603) 2297 8690
chiwei.t@maybank-ib.com
• Power • Telcos
WONG Wei Sum, CFA
(603) 2297 8679
weisum@maybank-ib.com
• Property • Glove
Jade TAM
(603) 2297 8687
jade.tam@maybank-ib.com
• Consumer Staples & Discretionary
Nur Farah SYIFAA
(603) 2297 8675
nurfarahsyifaa.mohamadfuad@maybank-ib.com
• Renewable Energy • REITs
LOH Yan Jin
(603) 2297 8687
lohyanjin.loh@maybank-ib.com
• Ports • Automotive • Technology (EMS)
Jeremie YAP
(603) 2297 8688
jeremie.yap@maybank-ib.com
• Oil & Gas • Petrochemicals
Nur Natasha ARIZA
(603) 2297 8691
natashaariza.aizarizal@maybank-ib.com
• Healthcare
Arvind JAYARATNAM
(603) 2297 8692
arvind.jayaratnam@maybank.com
• Technology (Semicon & Software)
TEE Sze Chiah Head of Retail Research
(603) 2082 6858
szechiah.t@maybank-ib.com
• Retail Research
Amirah AZMI
(603) 2082 8769
amirah.azmi@maybank-ib.com
• Retail Research
Amirul RUSYDY, CMT
(603) 2297 8694
rusydy.azizi@maybank-ib.com
• Chartist
SINGAPORE
Thilan WICKRAMASINGHE Head of Research
(65) 6231 5840
thilanw@maybank.com
• Strategy • Consumer
• Banking & Finance - Regional
Eric ONG
(65) 6231 5849
ericong@maybank.com
• Healthcare • Transport • SMIDs
Jarick SEET
(65) 6231 5848
jarick.seet@maybank.com
• Technology • SMIDs
Krishna GUHA
(65) 6231 5842
krishna.guha@maybank.com
• REITs • Industrials
Hussaini SAIFEE
(65) 6231 5837
hussaini.saifee@maybank.com
• Telcos • Internet
PHILIPPINES
Kervin Laurence SISAYAN Head of Research
(63) 2 5322 5005
kervin.sisayan@maybank.com
• Strategy • Banking & Finance • Telcos
Daphne SZE
(63) 2 5322 5008
daphne.sze@maybank.com
• Consumer
Raffy MENDOZA
(63) 2 5322 5010
joserafael.mendoza@maybank.com
• Property • REITs • Gaming
Michel ALONSO
(63) 2 5322 5007
michelxavier.alonso@maybank.com
• Conglomerates
Germaine GUINTO
(63) 2 5322 5006
germaine.guinto@maybank.com
• Utilities
Ronalyn Joyce LALIMO
(63) 2 5322 5009
rona.lalimo@maybank.com
• SMIDs
VIETNAM
Quan Trong Thanh Head of Research
(84 28) 44 555 888 ext 8184
thanh.quan@maybank.com
• Strategy • Banks
Hoang Huy, CFA
(84 28) 44 555 888 ext 8181
hoanghuy@maybank.com
• Strategy • Technology
Le Nguyen Nhat Chuyen
(84 28) 44 555 888 ext 8082
chuyen.le@maybank.com
• Oil & Gas • Logistics
Nguyen Thi Sony Tra Mi
(84 28) 44 555 888 ext 8084
trami.nguyen@maybank.com
• Consumer Discretionary
Tran Thi Thanh Nhan
(84 28) 44 555 888 ext 8088
nhan.tran@maybank.com
• Consumer Staples
Nguyen Le Tuan Loi
(84 28) 44 555 888 ext 8182
loi.nguyen@maybank.com
• Property
Nguyen Thanh Hai
(84 28) 44 555 888 ext 8081
thanhhai.nguyen@maybank.com
• Industrials
Nguyen Thanh Lam
(84 28) 44 555 888 ext 8086
thanhlam.nguyen@maybank.com
• Retail Research
INDONESIA
Jeffrosenberg CHENLIM Head of Research
(62) 21 8066 8680
jeffrosenberg.lim@maybank.com
• Strategy • Banking & Finance • Property
Willy GOUTAMA
(62) 21 8066 8688
willy.goutama@maybank.com
• Consumer
Etta Rusdiana PUTRA
(62) 21 8066 8683
etta.putra@maybank.com
• Telcos • Internet • Construction
Paulina MARGARETA
(62) 21 8066 8690
paulina.tjoa@maybank.com
• Autos • Healthcare
Jocelyn SANTOSO
(62) 21 8066 8689
jocelyn.santoso@maybank.com
• Consumer
Hasan BARAKWAN
(62) 21 8066 2694
hasan.barakwan@maybank.com
• Metals & Mining • Oil & Gas
Faiq ASAD
(62) 21 8066 8692
faiq.asad@maybank.com
• Banking & Finance
Satriawan HARYONO, CEWA, CTA
(62) 21 8066 8682
satriawan@maybank.com
• Chartist
THAILAND
Chak REUNGSINPINYA Head of Research
(66) 2658 5000 ext 1399
chak.reungsinpinya@maybank.com
• Strategy • Energy
Jesada TECHAHUSDIN, CFA
(66) 2658 5000 ext 1395
jesada.t@maybank.com
• Banking & Finance
Wasu MATTANAPOTCHANART
(66) 2658 5000 ext 1392
wasu.m@maybank.com
• Telcos • Technology (Software) • REITs
• Property • Consumer Discretionary
Surachai PRAMUALCHAROENKIT
(66) 2658 5000 ext 1470
surachai.p@maybank.com
• Auto • Conmat • Contractor
Suttatip PEERASUB
(66) 2658 5000 ext 1430
suttatip.p@maybank.com
• Food & Beverage • Commerce
Natchaphon RODJANAROWAN
(66) 2658 5000 ext 1393
natchaphon.rodjanarowan@maybank.com
• Utilities • Property
Boonyakorn AMORNSANK
(66) 2658 5000 ext 1394
boonyakorn.amornsank@maybank.com
• Services (Hotels, Transport)
Nontapat SAHAKITPINYO
(66) 2658 5000 ext 2352
nontapat.sahakitpinyo@maybank.com
• Healthcare
Yugi TAKESHIMA
(66) 2658 5000 ext 1530
yugi.takeshima@maybank.com
• Technology (EMS & Semicon)
Tanida JIRAPORNKASEMSUK
(66) 2658 5000 ext 1396
tanida.jirapornkasemsuk@maybank.com
• Food & Beverage
December 17, 2024
33
Strategy Research
APPENDIX I: TERMS FOR PROVISION OF REPORT, DISCLAIMERS AND DISCLOSURES
DISCLAIMERS
This research report is prepared for general circulation and for information purposes only and under no circumstances should it be considered or intended as an offer to sell or a solicitation
of an offer to buy the securities referred to herein. Investors should note that values of such securities, if any, may fluctuate and that each secu rity’s price or value may rise or fall. Opinions
or recommendations contained herein are in form of technical ratings and fundamental ratings. Technical ratings may differ from fundamental ratings as technical valuations apply different
methodologies and are purely based on price and volume-related information extracted from the relevant jurisdiction’s stock exchange in the equity analysis. Accordingly, investors’ returns
may be less than the original sum invested. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. This report is not intended to provide personal investment advice and does
not take into account the specific investment objectives, the financial situation and the particular needs of persons who may receive or read this report. I nvestors should therefore seek
financial, legal and other advice regarding the appropriateness of investing in any securities or the investment strategies discussed or recommended in this report.
The information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable but such sources have not been indepe ndently verified by Maybank Investment Bank Berhad, its
subsidiary and affiliates (collectively, “Maybank IBG”) and consequently no representation is made as to the accuracy or completeness of this report by Maybank IBG and it should not be
relied upon as such. Accordingly, Maybank IBG and its officers, directors, associates, connected parties and/or employees (collectively, “Representatives”) shall not be liable for any direct,
indirect or consequential losses or damages that may arise from the use or reliance of this report. Any information, opinions or recommendations contained herein are subject to change at
any time, without prior notice.
This report may contain forward looking statements which are often but not always identified by the use of words such as “anticipate”, “believe”, “estimate”, “intend”, “plan”, “expect”,
“forecast”, “predict” and “project” and statements that an event or result “may”, “will”, “can”, “should”, “could” or “might” occur or be achieved and other similar expressions. Such
forward looking statements are based on assumptions made and information currently available to us and are subject to certain risks and uncertainties that could cause the actual results to
differ materially from those expressed in any forward looking statements. Readers are cautioned not to place undue relevance on these forward-looking statements. Maybank IBG expressly
disclaims any obligation to update or revise any such forward looking statements to reflect new information, events or circum stances after the date of this publication or to reflect the
occurrence of unanticipated events.
Maybank IBG and its officers, directors and employees, including persons involved in the preparation or issuance of this repo rt, may, to the extent permitted by law, from time to time
participate or invest in financing transactions with the issuer(s) of the securities mentioned in this report, perform services for or solicit business from such issuers, and/or have a position or
holding, or other material interest, or effect transactions, in such securities or options thereon, or other investm ents related thereto. In addition, it may make markets in the securities
mentioned in the material presented in this report. One or more directors, officers and/or employees of Maybank IBG may be a director of the issuers of the securities mentioned in this
report to the extent permitted by law.
This report is prepared for the use of Maybank IBG’s clients and may not be reproduced, altered in any way, transmitted to, copied or distributed to any other party in whole or in part in any
form or manner without the prior express written consent of Maybank IBG and Maybank IBG and its Representatives accepts no liability whatsoever for the actions of third parties in this
respect.
This report is not directed to or intended for distribution to or use by any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction where
such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law or regulation. This report is for distribution o nly under such circumstances as may be permitted by applicable law.
The securities described herein may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors. With out prejudice to the foregoing, the reader is to note that additional
disclaimers, warnings or qualifications may apply based on geographical location of the person or entity receiving this report.
Malaysia
Opinions or recommendations contained herein are in the form of technical ratings and fundamental ratings. Technical ratings may differ from fundamental ratings as technical valuations
apply different methodologies and are purely based on price and volume-related information extracted from Bursa Malaysia Securities Berhad in the equity analysis.
Singapore
This report has been produced as of the date hereof and the information herein may be subject to change. Maybank Research Pte . Ltd. (“MRPL”) in Singapore has no obligation to update
such information for any recipient. For distribution in Singapore, recipie nts of this report are to contact MRPL in Singapore in respect of any matters arising from, or in connection with, this
report. If the recipient of this report is not an accredited investor, expert investor or institutional investor (as defined under Section 4A of the Singapore Securities and Futures Act 2001),
MRPL shall be legally liable for the contents of this report.
Thailand
Except as specifically permitted, no part of this presentation may be reproduced or distributed in any manner without the pri or written permission of Maybank Securities (Thailand) Public
Company Limited. Maybank Securities (Thailand) Public Company Limited (“MST”) accepts no liability whatsoever for the actions of third parties in this respect.
Due to different characteristics, objectives and strategies of institutional and retail investors, the research products of MST Institutional and Retail Research departments may differ in either
recommendation or target price, or both. MST reserves the rights to disseminate MST Retail Research reports to institutional investors who have requested to receive it. If you are an
authorised recipient, you hereby tacitly acknowledge that the research reports from MST Retail Research are first produced in Thai and there is a time lag in the release of the translated
English version.
The disclosure of the survey result of the Thai Institute of Directors Association (“IOD”) regarding corporate governance is made pursuant to the policy of the Office of the Securities and
Exchange Commission. The survey of the IOD is based on the information of a company listed on the Stock Exchange of Thailand and the market for Alternative In vestment disclosed to the
public and able to be accessed by a general public investor. The result, therefore, is from the perspecti ve of a third party. It is not an evaluation of operation and is not based on inside
information. The survey result is as of the date appearing in the Corporate Governance Report of Thai Listed Companies. As a result, the survey may be changed after that date. MST does
not confirm nor certify the accuracy of such survey result.
The disclosure of the Anti-Corruption Progress Indicators of a listed company on the Stock Exchange of Thailand, which is assessed by Thaipat Institute, is made in order to comply with the
policy and sustainable development plan for the listed companies of the Office of the Securities and Exchange Commission. Tha ipat Institute made this assessment based on the information
received from the listed company, as stipulated in the form for the assessment of Anti-corruption which refers to the Annual Registration Statement (Form 56-1), Annual Report (Form 56-2),
or other relevant documents or reports of such listed company. The assessment result is therefore made from the perspective of Thaipat Institute that is a third party. It is not an assessment
of operation and is not based on any inside information. Since this assessment is only the assessment result as of the date a ppearing in the assessment result, it may be changed after that
date or when there is any change to the relevant information. Nevertheless, MST does not confirm, verify, or certify the accuracy and completeness of the assessment result.
US
This third-party research report is distributed in the United States (“US”) to Major US Institutional Investors (as defined in Rule 15a-6 under the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended)
only by Wedbush Securities Inc. (“Wedbush”), a broker-dealer registered in the US (registered under Section 15 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended). All responsibility for the
distribution of this report by Wedbush in the US shall be borne by Wedbush. This report is not directed at you if Wedbush is prohibited or restricted by any legislation or regulation in any
jurisdiction from making it available to you. You should satisfy yourself before reading it that Wedbush is permitted to provide research material concerning investments to you under relevant
legislation and regulations. All U.S. persons receiving and/or accessing this report an d wishing to effect transactions in any security mentioned within must do so with: Wedbush Securities
Inc. 1000 Wilshire Blvd, Los Angeles, California 90017, +1 (646) 604-4232 and not with the issuer of this report.
December 17, 2024
34
Strategy Research
Disclosure of Interest
Malaysia:
Maybank IBG and its Representatives may from time to time have positions or be materially interested in the securities referred to herein and may further act as market maker or
may have assumed an underwriting commitment or deal with such securities and may also perform or seek to perform investment banking services, advisory and other services for or relating
to those companies.
Singapore:
As of 17 December 2024, Maybank Research Pte. Ltd. and the covering analyst do not have any interest in any companies recommended in this research report.
Thailand:
MST may have a business relationship with or may possibly be an issuer of derivative warrants on the securities /companies me ntioned in the research report. Therefore, Investors
should exercise their own judgment before making any investment decisions. MST, its associates, directors, connected parties and/or employees may from time to time have interests and/or
underwriting commitments in the securities mentioned in this report.
Hong Kong:
As of 17 December 2024, MIB Securities (Hong Kong) Limited and the authoring analyst do not have any interest in any companies recommended in this re search report.
India:
As of 17 December 2024, and at the end of the month immediately preceding the date of publication of the research report, MIBSI, authoring analyst or their associate / relative does
not hold any financial interest or any actual or beneficial ownership in any shares or having any conflict of interest in the subject companies except as otherwise disclosed in the research
report.
In the past twelve months MIBSI and authoring analyst or their associate did not receive any compensation or other benefits from the subject companies or third party in connection with the
research report on any account what so ever except as otherwise disclosed in the research report.
Maybank IBG may have, within the last three years, served as manager or co-manager of a public offering of securities for, or currently may make a primary market in issues of, any or all of
the entities mentioned in this report or may be providing, or have provided within the previous 12 months, significant advice or investment services in relation to the investment concerned
or a related investment and may receive compensation for the services provided from the companies covered in this report.
OTHERS
Analyst Certification of Independence
The views expressed in this research report accurately reflect the analyst’s personal views about any and all of the subject securities or issuers; and no part of the research analyst’s
compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in the re port.
Reminder
Structured securities are complex instruments, typically involve a high degree of risk and are intended for sale only to sophisticated investors who are capable of understanding and assuming
the risks involved. The market value of any structured security may be affected by changes in economic, financial and political factors (including, but not limited to, spot and forward
interest and exchange rates), time to maturity, market conditions and volatility and the credit quality of any issuer or refe rence issuer. Any investor interested in purchasing a structured
product should conduct its own analysis of the product and consult with its own professional advisers as to the risks involve d in making such a purchase.
No part of this material may be copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or redistributed without the prior consent of Maybank IBG.
Definition of Ratings
Maybank IBG Research uses the following rating system
BUY
Return is expected to be above 10% in the next 12 months (including dividends)
HOLD
Return is expected to be between 0% to 10% in the next 12 months (including dividends)
SELL
Return is expected to be below 0% in the next 12 months (including dividends)
Applicability of Ratings
The respective analyst maintains a coverage universe of stocks, the list of which may be adjusted according to needs. Investment ratings are only applicable
to the stocks which form part of the coverage universe. Reports on companies which are not part of the coverage do not carry investment ratings as we do
not actively follow developments in these companies.
UK
This document is being distributed by Maybank Securities (London) Ltd (“MSUK”) which is authorized and regulated, by the Financial Conduct Authority and is for Informational Purposes only.
This document is not intended for distribution to anyone defined as a Retail Client under the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 within the UK. Any inclusion of a third party link is for
the recipients convenience only, and that the firm does not take any responsibility for its comments or accuracy, and that ac cess to such links is at the individuals own risk. Nothing in this
report should be considered as constituting legal, accounting or tax advice, and that for accurate guidance recipients should consult with their own independent tax advisers.
DISCLOSURES
Legal Entities Disclosures
Malaysia:
This report is issued and distributed in Malaysia by Maybank Investment Bank Berhad (15938- H) which is a Participating Organization of Bursa Malaysia Berhad and a holder of
Capital Markets and Services License issued by the Securities Commission in Malaysia.
Singapore:
This report is distributed in Singapore by MRPL (Co. Reg No 198700034E) which is regulated
by the Monetary Authority of Singapore.
Indonesia:
PT Maybank Sekuritas Indonesia (“PTMSI”) (Reg. No. KEP-251/PM/1992) is a member of the Indonesia Stock Exchange and is regulated by
the Financial Services Authority (Indonesia).
Thailand:
MST (Reg. No.0107545000314) is a member of the Stock Exchange of Thailand and is regulated by the Ministry of Finance and the
Securities and Exchange Commission.
Philippines:
Maybank Securities Inc (Reg. No.01-2004-00019) is a member of the Philippines Stock Exchange and is regulated by the Securities and
Exchange Commission.
Vietnam:
Maybank Securities Limited (License Number: 117/GP-UBCK) is licensed under the State Securities Commission of Vietnam.
Hong Kong:
MIB Securities (Hong
Kong) Limited (Central Entity No AAD284) is regulated by the Securities and Futures Commission.
India:
MIB Securities India Private Limited (“MIBSI”) is a participant of the National Stock
Exchange of India Limited and the Bombay Stock Exchange and is regulated by Securities and Exchange Board of India (“SEBI”) (Reg. No. INZ000010538). MIBSI is also registered with SEBI as
Category 1 Merchant Banker (Reg. No. INM 000011708) and as Research Analyst (Reg No: INH000000057).
UK:
Maybank Securities (London) Ltd (Reg No 2377538) is authorized and regulated
by the Financial Conduct Authority.
December 17, 2024
35
Strategy Research
Malaysia
Maybank Investment Bank Berhad
(A Participating Organisation of
Bursa Malaysia Securities Berhad)
33rd Floor, Menara Maybank,
100 Jalan Tun Perak,
50050 Kuala Lumpur
Tel: (603) 2059 1888;
Fax: (603) 2078 4194
Singapore
Maybank Securities Pte Ltd
Maybank Research Pte Ltd
50 North Canal Road
Singapore 059304
Tel: (65) 6336 9090
London
Maybank Securities (London) Ltd
PNB House
77 Queen Victoria Street
London EC4V 4AY, UK
Tel: (44) 20 7332 0221
Fax: (44) 20 7332 0302
Hong Kong
MIB Securities (Hong Kong)
Limited
28/F, Lee Garden Three,
1 Sunning Road, Causeway Bay,
Hong Kong
Tel: (852) 2268 0800
Fax: (852) 2877 0104
Stockbroking Business:
Level 8, Tower C, Dataran Maybank,
No.1, Jalan Maarof
59000 Kuala Lumpur
Tel: (603) 2297 8888
Fax: (603) 2282 5136
Indonesia
PT Maybank Sekuritas Indonesia
Sentral Senayan III, 22nd Floor
Jl. Asia Afrika No. 8
Gelora Bung Karno, Senayan
Jakarta 10270, Indonesia
Tel: (62) 21 2557 1188
Fax: (62) 21 2557 1189
India
MIB Securities India Pte Ltd
1101, 11th floor, A Wing, Kanakia
Wall Street, Chakala, Andheri -
Kurla Road, Andheri East,
Mumbai City - 400 093, India
Tel: (91) 22 6623 2600
Fax: (91) 22 6623 2604
Philippines
Maybank Securities Inc
17/F, Tower One & Exchange
Plaza
Ayala Triangle, Ayala Avenue
Makati City, Philippines 1200
Tel: (63) 2 8849 8888
Fax: (63) 2 8848 5738
Thailand
Maybank Securities (Thailand) PCL
999/9 The Offices at Central World,
20th - 21st Floor,
Rama 1 Road Pathumwan,
Bangkok 10330, Thailand
Tel: (66) 2 658 6817 (sales)
Tel: (66) 2 658 6801 (research)
Vietnam
Maybank Securities Limited
Floor 10, Pearl 5 Tower,
5 Le Quy Don Street,
Vo Thi Sau Ward, District 3
Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam
Tel : (84) 28 44 555 888
Fax : (84) 28 38 271 030
Sales Trading
Indonesia
Helen Widjaja
helen.widjaja@maybank.com
Tel: (62) 21 2557 1188
London
Greg Smith
gsmith@maybank.com
Tel: (44) 207 332 0221
Philippines
Keith Roy
keith_roy@maybank.com
Tel: (63) 2 5322 3184
India
Sanjay Makhija
sanjaymakhija@maybank.com
Tel: (91) 22 6623 2629
www.maybank.com/investment-banking
www.maybank-keresearch.com
