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Automated Medium-Duty and Heavy-Duty Trucks PDF free Download. Think more deeply and widely.

Automated Medium-Duty and

Heavy-Duty Trucks

Global Sales and Revenue Forecasts for Autonomous Trucking: 2025-2034

Published 3Q 2025

Ryan James

Principal Research Analyst

Jake Foose

Research Analyst

Research Report

Executive Summary:

NOTE: This document is a free excerpt of a larger report.

Click on the link above to purchase the full report.

part, without the express written permission of Guidehouse Inc.

Automated Medium-Duty and Heavy-Duty Trucks

Section 1

Executive Summary

1.1 Market Overview

For many years, advances in automated driving technology have received

significant media attention, particularly in the light-duty vehicle (LDV) segment.

Generally, these technologies enable drivers to remove their hands from the

wheel, and, in some cases, their eyes from the road. Recent developments have

focused on robotaxis, rideshare vehicles that operate without a driver or

sometimes, without a safety monitor in the front seat.

Less attention has been paid to automated driving in the medium- and

heavy-duty (MHD) trucking sector, a market with the potential for substantial

growth in the coming decades. MHD trucks operate within simpler operational

design domains (ODDs) and generate more revenue per vehicle than robotaxis.

This industry, which is primed for transformation, faces persistent driver

shortages, creating opportunities for automation to address supply chain

disruptions.

1.2 Scope

This report evaluates the potential sales and revenues of MHD trucks that are

capable of operating without continuous supervision, potentially through their

entire routes. Their gross vehicle weight rating (GVWR) is greater than

10,000 pounds/4,536 kilograms. The analysis covers both medium-duty trucks,

whose GVWR is between 10,000 and 26,000 pounds/4,536 and 11,793 kilograms,

and heavy-duty trucks whose GVWR is greater than 26,000 pounds/11,793

kilograms. It also includes on-road and off-road use cases for autonomous

technologies.

1.3 Market Forecasts

Multiple developers are piloting automated truck driving software, primarily in the

U.S. and China, with smaller pilots elsewhere (e.g., Europe and the Middle East.)

While some tests operate without a human in the vehicle, many retain a safety

observer. Current pilot projects generate minimal revenue, though significant

market growth is expected toward the end of the forecast period.

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Automated Medium-Duty and Heavy-Duty Trucks

Guidehouse Research anticipates that global sales of hands-off/eyes-off (i.e.,

automated) MHD trucks will only mature toward the end of the forecast period,

reaching approximately 36,000 units by 2034, with China accounting for nearly

one-third of the market due to rapid growth and favorable regulatory conditions.

Chart 1-1. Automated MHD Truck Sales, World Markets: 2025–2034

(Source: Guidehouse Research)

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

2034

(Vehicles)

North America Europe

China OECD Asia-Pacific

India Rest of Asia-Pacific

Latin America Middle East & Africa

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Automated Medium-Duty and Heavy-Duty Trucks

Section 7

Table of Contents

Section 1 ........................................................................................................................ 1

Executive Summary ........................................................................................................ 1

1.1 Market Overview ..................................................................................................... 1

1.2 Scope .................................................................................................................... 1

1.3 Market Forecasts .................................................................................................... 1

Section 2 ........................................................................................................................ 3

Market Issues................................................................................................................. 3

2.1 Introduction ........................................................................................................... 3

2.2 Drivers ................................................................................................................... 4

2.2.1 Simplified ODDs ................................................................................................ 4

2.2.2 Driver Shortages and Driver Costs ...................................................................... 5

2.2.3 Lower TCO ........................................................................................................ 6

2.3 Barriers .................................................................................................................. 7

2.3.1 Public Opinion on Automation ........................................................................... 7

2.3.2 Workforce Political Power .................................................................................. 8

2.3.3 Funding Issues .................................................................................................. 8

Section 3 ...................................................................................................................... 10

Industry Value Chain .................................................................................................... 10

3.1 Introduction .......................................................................................................... 10

3.2 Competitive Landscape ......................................................................................... 10

3.3 Industry Value Chain ............................................................................................. 11

3.3.1 M&A Activities .................................................................................................. 12

Section 4 ...................................................................................................................... 14

Market Forecasts ......................................................................................................... 14

4.1 Methodology ......................................................................................................... 14

4.2 MHD Truck Sales Forecasts ................................................................................... 15

4.3 Automated MHD Truck Sales Forecasts .................................................................. 15

4.3.1 Automated Heavy-Duty Truck Sales Forecasts ................................................... 16

4.3.2 Automated Medium-Duty Truck Sales Forecasts ................................................ 17

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Automated Medium-Duty and Heavy-Duty Trucks

4.4 Automated MHD Truck Revenue Forecasts ............................................................. 19

4.4.1 Automated Heavy-Duty Truck Revenue Forecasts .............................................. 20

4.4.2 Automated Medium-Duty Truck Revenue Forecasts ........................................... 21

4.5 Automated On-Road MHD Truck Sales Forecasts .................................................... 22

4.6 Automated Off-Road MHD Truck Sales Forecasts ................................................... 23

Section 5 ...................................................................................................................... 24

Conclusions and Recommendations ............................................................................. 24

5.1 Three Big Takeaways .............................................................................................. 24

5.2 Recommendations ................................................................................................ 24

5.2.1 MHDV Autonomy Developers ............................................................................ 24

5.2.2 MHD OEMs ...................................................................................................... 25

5.2.3 Government Policymakers ................................................................................ 25

5.2.4 Trucking Fleet Operators .................................................................................. 26

Section 6 ...................................................................................................................... 27

Acronym and Abbreviation List ...................................................................................... 27

Section 7 ...................................................................................................................... 28

Table of Contents ......................................................................................................... 28

Section 8 ...................................................................................................................... 30

Table of Charts and Figures ........................................................................................... 30

Section 9 ...................................................................................................................... 31

Scope of Study ............................................................................................................. 31

Sources and Methodology ............................................................................................. 31

Notes ........................................................................................................................... 32

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Automated Medium-Duty and Heavy-Duty Trucks

Section 8

Table of Charts and Figures

Chart 1-1. Automated MHD Truck Sales, World Markets: 2025–2034 ................................... 2

Chart 4-1. MHD Truck Sales by Region, World Markets: 2025-2034 ..................................... 15

Chart 4-2. Automated MHD Truck Sales, World Markets: 2025–2034 .................................. 16

Chart 4-3. Automated Heavy-Duty Truck Sales, World Markets: 2025–2034 ........................ 17

Chart 4-4. Automated Medium-Duty Truck Sales, World Markets: 2025–2034 ..................... 18

Chart 4-5. Automated MHD Truck Revenues, World Markets: 2025–2034 ............................ 19

Chart 4-6. Automated Heavy-Duty Truck Revenues, World Markets: 2025–2034 .................. 20

Chart 4-7. Automated Medium-Duty Truck Revenues, World Markets: 2025–2034 ............... 21

Chart 4-8. Automated On-Road MHD Truck Sales, World Markets: 2025–2034 .................... 22

Chart 4-9. Automated Off-Road MHD Truck Sales, World Markets: 2025–2034 .................... 23

Figure 3-1. Pictorial Representation of the Automated MHD Truck Value Chain .................... 12

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Automated Medium-Duty and Heavy-Duty Trucks

Section 9

Scope of Study

This Guidehouse Research report examines the development and deployment of hands-

off/eyes-off (automated) driving technology in the MHD trucking industry. It explores the key

factors motivating fleet managers to automate more of their routes, as well as the market

barriers that are slowing the full rollout of automated driving systems.

The report also analyzes the current structure of the automated trucking value chain and

provides a forecast for how that structure is expected to evolve as commercialization

progresses. Sales forecasts are presented based on market dynamics and insights gathered

through interviews with industry stakeholders. These forecasts are segmented by vehicle class

(medium-duty and heavy-duty) and by use case (off-road and on-road applications). Revenue

forecasts (2025-2034) are provided for both vehicle classes and segmented by eight

geographical regions.

Sources and Methodology

Guidehouse Research’s industry analysts use a variety of research sources in preparing

Research Reports. The key component of Guidehouse Research’s analysis is primary research

gained from phone and in-person interviews with industry leaders including executives,

engineers, and marketing professionals. Analysts are diligent in ensuring that they speak with

representatives from every part of the value chain, including but not limited to technology

companies, utilities and other service providers, industry associations, government agencies,

and the investment community.

Additional analysis includes secondary research conducted by Guidehouse Research’s

analysts and its staff of research assistants. Where applicable, all secondary research sources

are appropriately cited within this report.

These primary and secondary research sources, combined with the analyst’s industry expertise,

are synthesized into the qualitative and quantitative analysis presented in Guidehouse

Research’s reports. Great care is taken in making sure that all analysis is well-supported by

facts, but where the facts are unknown and assumptions must be made, analysts document

their assumptions and are prepared to explain their methodology, both within the body of a

report and in direct conversations with clients.

Guidehouse Research is a market research group whose goal is to present an objective,

unbiased view of market opportunities within its coverage areas. Guidehouse Research is not

beholden to any special interests and is thus able to offer clear, actionable advice to help

clients succeed in the industry, unfettered by technology hype, political agendas, or emotional

factors that are inherent in cleantech markets.

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Automated Medium-Duty and Heavy-Duty Trucks

Notes

CAGR refers to compound annual growth rate, using the formula:

CAGR = (End Year Value ÷ Start Year Value)(1/steps) – 1.

CAGRs presented in the tables are for the entire timeframe in the title. Where data for fewer

years are given, the CAGR is for the range presented. Where relevant, CAGRs for shorter

timeframes may be given as well.

Figures are based on the best estimates available at the time of calculation. Annual revenue,

shipments, and sales are based on end-of-year figures unless otherwise noted. All values are

expressed in year 2025 US dollars unless otherwise noted. Percentages may not add up to

100 due to rounding.

part, without the express written permission of Guidehouse Inc.

Automated Medium-Duty and Heavy-Duty Trucks

Published 3Q 2025

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McLean, VA 22102 USA

guidehouseresearch.com

Guidehouse Inc. (Guidehouse) has provided the information in this publication for informational

purposes only. The information has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable;

however, Guidehouse does not make any express or implied warranty or representation

concerning such information. Any market forecasts or predictions contained in the publication

reflect Guidehouse’s current expectations based on market data and trend analysis. Market

predictions and expectations are inherently uncertain and actual results may differ materially

from those contained in the publication. Guidehouse and its subsidiaries and affiliates hereby

disclaim liability for any loss or damage caused by errors or omissions in this publication.

Any reference to a specific commercial product, process, or service by trade name, trademark,

manufacturer, or otherwise, does not constitute or imply an endorsement, recommendation, or

favoring by Guidehouse.

This publication is intended for the sole and exclusive use of the original purchaser. No part of

this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, distributed or transmitted in

any form or by any means, electronic or otherwise, including use in any public or private

offering, without the prior written permission of Guidehouse Inc., McLean, Virginia, USA.

Government data and other data obtained from public sources found in this report are not

protected by copyright or intellectual property claims.

Note: Editing of this report was closed on September 24, 2025.

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Automated Medium-Duty and Heavy-Duty Trucks PDF Free Download

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