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The May revenue conference noted a combined revenue increase of $57.4 million compared to November.
The caseload conference reflected a significant reduction in expenditures based on more updated
information on the results of the eligibility redetermination process as well as delays in program
implementation and utilization. This resulted in about $130 million more in available resources over the
two-year period. Also, information provided through required quarterly reporting and requested
amendments from the Governor highlighted other changes needed, including significant increases for
updated education aid data and contracts with the Department of Children, Youth and Families’ service
providers. The Assembly incorporated most of these recommendations and accelerated the Governor’s
proposal for implementation of provider rate increases as well as some other targeted rate and benefit
adjustments. Much of this spending is accounted for in the Governor’s original out-year projections.
Additionally, the Assembly maintained current law regarding the inflation adjustment for core education
aid which required a significant increase to the Governor’s recommendation for the budget and out-years.
• Out-Year Projections. The out-years continue to be unbalanced. The forecast included with the
Governor’s budget estimated a $244.4 million gap for FY 2026 and averaging about the same through FY
2029. The FY 2026 gap includes the impact of using the surplus funds in FY 2025 as well as updated
economic growth rates. The forecast also assumes the impact of new proposals including commitments for
human services program rate increases. The Fiscal Staff estimates the revised out-year forecast to have
average annual gaps exceeding $270 million, which is somewhat higher than the Governor. The Assembly
advanced to FY 2025 provider rate increases that are accounted for later in the Governor’s forecast, but
also declined to adopt his proposal to freeze car tax reimbursements to locals, which accounts for over $30
million in FY 2029. There are still additional resources expected from related federal reimbursements that
may soften the immediate budget gap. As in prior years, continued uncertainties such as hiring difficulties
and return to normal Medicaid operations make the forecast subject to significant change.
Taxes and Revenues
• Supplemental Budget Reserve. The FY 2024 budget created a supplemental reserve fund to which it
contributed $55.0 million. It also dedicated half of any unexpected excess revenues at fiscal close; FY 2023
data shows that to be $6.5 million. The Governor has proposed repealing the excess transfer provision and
recapturing those funds in FY 2024. The Assembly did not concur with this proposal. It authorized separate
legislation in 2024-H 7927, Substitute A, not requiring the transfer to the reserve account for FY 2023 only,
allowing for the recapture of the $6.5 million as general revenues.
• Cannabis Business Deductions. The Budget includes language permitting cannabis businesses to claim
ordinary income deductions consistent with those of other businesses. Current law follows federal statutes,
which prohibit businesses which deal in controlled substances from claiming these deductions. Several other
states, including Connecticut and Massachusetts, permit these deductions. The revenue loss for FY 2025 is
$0.8 million, annualizing to $1.7 million for FY 2026.
• Cigarette Per Pack Increase. The Budget assumes $2.3 million in revenues from an increase to the
cigarette tax by $0.25, to $4.50 per 20-pack, effective September 1, 2024.
• Electronic Nicotine Delivery Systems. The Budget assumes $2.2 million in revenues from a tax on
electronic nicotine delivery systems that uses volume or price depending on the product, effective January
1, 2025. This would annualize to $3.9 million. The Assembly also codified the current Department of
Health prohibition on flavored vapor products, except for menthol, and required all manufacturers,
importers, and distributors of other tobacco products to be licensed by the Division of Taxation.
• Financial Institutions Tax. The Assembly adopted separate legislation to allow financial institutions
to apportion their net income based solely on their receipts factor, with the option to revoke the election
after five years, starting tax year January 1, 2025. Currently, financial institutions use a three-factor