Evaluation of the Economics of Battery-Electric and Fuel Cell Trucks and Buses PDF Free Download
1 / 22/22
100%
USC-Stanford Energy Symposium
November 18-19, 2020
Evaluation of the Economics of Battery-Electric and
Fuel Cell Trucks and Buses
Andrew Burke
UC Davis
Evaluation of the Economics of Battery-Electric and Fuel
Cell Trucks and Buses: Methods, Issues, and Results
Andrew Burke, Marshall Miller, Anish Sinha, Lew Fulton
STEPS+ Sustainable Freight Research Report
October 20, 2020
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
Objectives of the research
• Understand the factors for costs of battery-electric and
hydrogen fuel cell trucks and buses of various
types/classes in city and inter-city applications in 2020-
2040
• Develop a method of calculation of the costs (initial
and TCO) that include the most important factors
• Develop Excel spreadsheet models for all the various
trucks and buses for both battery-electric and hydrogen
fuel cell vehicles powertrains.
• Present the cost results such that the key factors
determining the costs are clear for the different
types/classes of vehicles and powertrains.
•Many truck types and Classes (2-8)
•Transit and inter-city buses
•Treat battery-electric and fuel cell
•Calculate initial cost and TCO
•Variable periods and conditions for calculating
TCO
•Flexible and easily changed inputs from common
vehicle inputs
•Outputs in terms of both tables and bar-charts
•Calculate energy storage weights and costs for
batteries and hydrogen
•Treats the baseline Diesel vehicles in the inputs
Requirements for Excel spreadsheet development
Inputs for the battery-electric
Class 7 Box truck
Inputs for the fuel cell Class 7
Box truck
Battery cost
$/kWh
2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
Battery costs to OEMs
-
Hi cost case
250
200
125
100
75
-
Base cost case
225
175
100
85
70
-
Low cost case
200
150
75
70
65
-
Battery integration
factor
1.3
1.25
1.2
1.15
1.1
Battery pack costs for 2020-2040
HD $/kW
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
High cost case
700
240
145
115
90
Production
volume
(units/year)
<300
1000
3000
10000
30000
Base case
525
193
118
95
78
Low cost case
350
145
90
75
65
Production vol.
(units/year)
300
3000
30000
100000
300000
Fuel cell
system
integration
factor
1.6
1.5
1.4
1.35
1.3
Fuel cell cost projections for high and low cases
Hydrogen costs ($/kg) for fuel cell trucks produced from electrolysis
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
High cost
17
12
9
7
6
Base (average)
12
8.5
7
6
5
Lower cost
10
7
6
5
4
Vehicle/
Class
Miles/
yr*
Passenger van
25000
Delivery truck
20000
Step van
25500
Class 6 Box trk
25500
Class 7 Box trk
30000
Class 8 Box trk
30000
HD pickup trk
20000
Class 8 Tractor
300mi range
90000
Class 8 tractor
500 mi range
120000
Transit bus
40000
Intercity bus
60000
Short haul
45000
Annual mileage for various
*annual mileage for year 1
Cost results for battery-electric trucks of
various classes in 2030
Cost results for fuel cell trucks of various classes in 2030
Cost results for battery-electric trucks in 2040
Cost results for fuel cell trucks in 2040
Change in 15 yr TCO for a class 6 fuel cell
truck 2020-2040
Payback miles and years
•Payback calculation is an approach to combine initial cost
and TCO results
•Higher initial cost is offset by energy and maintenance
cost savings
•Payback miles = ∆ initial cost $/ ∑ energy + maint.($/mi)
•Payback years = payback miles / total miles/yr
•Payback in less than 3 years makes electrified vehicle look
attractive
Vehicle*
∆ veh cost
$
∆ maint.
Cost $/mi
∆ energy
Cost $/mi
Total ∆
cost per
mi $/mi
Payback
miles
Payback
Years**
Pass. van
19000
.15
.128
.278
68340
2.3
Deliv. van
22000
.15
.18
.33
66666
2.2
Step van
19000
.15
.24
.39
48718
1.6
Class 6 trk
37000
.15
.30
.45
82200
2.2
Class 7 trk.
64000
.15
.41
.56
114300
2.9
Class 8 trk.
80000
.15
.44
.59
135600
3.4
HD Pickup
(2030)
17000
.14
.13
.27
63000
1.6
Long haul
truck300mi
90,00mi/yr
163000
.09
.168
.258
631800
7.0
Long haul
truck500mi
100,00mi/
yr
292000
.09
.168
.258
1131800
11.3
Transit bus
150 mi
50000
mi/yr
66000
.5
.386
.886
74500
1.5
Payback miles and years for battery-electric
trucks of various classes in 2025
Payback years for battery-electric trucks of various classes
in 2025
*range of all the trucks is 150 miles
, hydrogen cost 7 $/kgH2
*annual miles of all the city trucks is 45000 miles/yr, long haul truck
100000 miles/yr
Payback miles and years for fuel cell trucks
of various classes in 2025
Vehicle*
∆ veh cost
$
∆ maint.
Cost $/mi
∆ energy
Cost $/mi
Total ∆
cost per
mi $/mi
Payback
miles
Payback
Years**
Pass. van
23K
.15
.12
.27
85100
1.9
Deliv. van
4K
.15
‘11
.26
15400
.3
Step van
19K
.15
.12
.27
70400
1.6
Class 6 trk
41K
.15
.16
.31
132200
2.9
Class 7 trk.
56K
.15
.21
.36
155500
3.5
Class 8 trk.
56K
.15
.26
.41
136600
3.0
HD pickup
250 mi
(2030)
34K
.15
.08
$5/kgH2
.23
147800
3.7
Class 8 long
haul 500 mi
100,000
mi/yr
94K
.15
.09
$5/kgH2
.24
391600
3.9
Inter
-city
bus
250 miles
75000 mi/yr
65K
.15
.21
5 $/kgH2
.36
180000
2.4
Transit bus
150 mi
50000 mi/yr
10K
.5
.11
5 $/kgH
2
.61
16400
.32
Summary and conclusions
• Cost spreadsheets yield results in convenient forms
• Cost of batteries must be less than $100/kWh, fuel cell
system less than $120/kW before electrified trucks and buses
can compete with corresponding diesel vehicles on first cost
basis for ranges of 150 miles. This expected to be the case
post-2030 or slightly before for smaller size vehicles
• On a TCO basis, electrified trucks and buses can compete at
slightly higher component costs and hydrogen costs of about
$7/kg..
• Fuel cell trucks and buses have a significant cost advantage
over battery-electric vehicles for ranges greater than about
300 miles if cost of hydrogen is $5/kg or less.
• Infrastructure cost and availability will be the determining
factor for the mix (batteries and fuel cells) of electrified
vehicles in the post 2030 time period.,
• Refine inputs for cost spreadsheets
• Evaluate effect of different vehicle
depreciation schedules on TCO
• Include effects of battery life on TCO
• Study battery charging strategies as
function of vehicle and battery kWh
• Include the cost of battery charging on
TCO and system costs
• Study strategies for hydrogen
refueling of fleets of a mix of vehicle
sizes
• Include the cost of hydrogen refueling
on TCO and system costs
Future work
