ITRPV 16th edition, March 2025: key findings & selected report presentation PDF Free Download
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ITRPV | ITRPV 2025 | Dr. Markus Fischer | PV CellTech, Frankfurt/Main, March 11 2025 Page 1 |
ITRPV 16th edition, March 2025
key findings & selected report presentation
Source: www.siemens.com/presse
Dr. Markus Fischer
ITRPV steering committee
PVCellTech, Frankfurt/Main, March11 2025
ITRPV | ITRPV 2025 | Dr. Markus Fischer | PV CellTech, Frankfurt/Main, March 11 2025 Page 2 |
Outline
1. ITRPV –Status and PV learning Curve
2. ITRPV –Results 2024
- Crystallization & Wafering - Materials, Processes, Products
- Cell - Products, Materials, Processes
- Module - Materials, Processes, Products
- System cost and LCoE
3. Outlook and Summary
ITRPV | ITRPV 2025 | Dr. Markus Fischer | PV CellTech, Frankfurt/Main, March 11 2025 Page 3 |
Outline
1. ITRPV –Status and PV learning Curve
2. ITRPV –Results 2024
- Crystallization & Wafering - Materials, Processes, Products
- Cell - Products, Materials, Processes
- Module - Materials, Processes, Products
- System cost and LCoE
3. Outlook and Summary
ITRPV
ITRPV –Methodology / Statistics
16th edition: 49 contributors from Asia, Europe, and US > 70 parameters
Participating
companies
Independent data
collection / processing
by VDMA
Review of data
Preparation of publication
regional chairs Next ITRPV edition
Parameters in main areas are discussed Diagrams show median values
Photovoltaic
Equipment
Chairs US
Chairs
PRC
Chairs TW
Chairs IN
| ITRPV 2025 | Dr. Markus Fischer | PV CellTech, Frankfurt/Main, March 11 2025 Page 4 |
SILICON CRYSTAL. WAFER CELL SYSTEMMODULE
ITRPV
PV learning curve
| ITRPV 2025 | Dr. Markus Fischer | PV CellTech, Frankfurt/Main, March 11 2025 Page 5 |
Shipments /avg. module spot market price at year end:
2023: 502 GWp / 0.12 US$/Wp
2024: 703 GWp / 0.08 US$/Wp
o/a shipment: ≈ 2.472 TWp
Installation 2024: 566 GWp
o/a installation: ≈ 2.176 TWp
Production capacity end of 2024: ≈ 98% is c-Si based
> 1,200 GWp poly/wafer; > 1,500 GWp (cell / module)
LR 25.8 % (1976 …. 2024)
again an amazing shipment increase in 2024
Transition from PERC to TopCon still ongoing
tremendous price reductions due to oversupply
12/2024
2 TWp
1976
ITRPV 2025
12/2023
ITRPV
PV learning curve c-Si material trends
Page 6 |
Spot Price calculation (year end value):
mono-Si became the exclusive material for c-Si
significant price reductions during 2024 end due to oversupply situation
No significant premiums for high power standard modules any more
For overseas: shipping cost again on high level * * https://app.terminal.freightos.com/fbx: 02.2018 –02.2025
**avg. pricing: https://www.infolink-group.com/spot-price/ / http://pvinsights.com/index.php
Module Price trend: tremendous price reduction
no more significant price differences fo c-Si
34% p-mono PERC standard : 0.08 $
64% n-mono TopCon/SHJ : 0.08 $
2% thin film : 0.18 $
| ITRPV 2025 | Dr. Markus Fischer | PV CellTech, Frankfurt/Main, March 11 2025
≈ 0.08 $ /Wp
ITRPV | ITRPV 2025 | Dr. Markus Fischer | PV CellTech, Frankfurt/Main, March 11 2025 Page 7 |
Outline
1. ITRPV –Status and PV learning Curve
2. ITRPV –Results 2024
- Crystallization & Wafering - Materials, Processes, Products
- Cell - Products, Materials, Processes
- Module - Materials, Processes, Products
- System cost and LCoE
3. Outlook and Summary
ITRPV
Products: wafer types
casted-Si domination will remain:
•Casting technology:
HP mc-Si will replace standardmc-Si
no “come back” of mono-like expected
•Mono technology:
upcoming n-type material
n- + p-type market share ≈35%
•Other technologies:
no maturity so far
kerfless technologies will be introduced in mass
production after 2019
| 7th edition | Dr. Markus Fischer | PV CellTech, Kuala Lumpur, March 16 2016 Page 8 |
Casted material is dominating today with >60%
Mono share is expected to increase (driven by n-type)
other
p-type material is expected to dominate
ITRPV
Wafer: Products –market share of wafer types
| ITRPV 2025 | Dr. Markus Fischer | PV CellTech, Frankfurt/Main, March 11 2025 Page 9 |
Trend: share of c-Si material types
100% Mono 65% n-type –ITRPV data are close to SPGI data
n-type material has been dominating
p-type share as base for p-PERC technology will decrease to 2%
World market share [%]
n-type mono
ITRPV 2025
ITRPV
Wafer: Products –market share of wafer sizes
| ITRPV 2025 | Dr. Markus Fischer | PV CellTech, Frankfurt/Main, March 11 2025 Page 10 |
Trend: mono-Si wafer size Trend: Mono main stream is w/ large wafers
•M6 will disappear after 2025
•M10 / G12 will dominate future
rectangular formats have significant share
rectangular wafers fit best for rooftop modules
•>G12 formats expected
World market share [%]
M10 / M10R
M6
ITRPV 2025
ITRPV
Poly-Si consumption per wafer [g]
Poly-Si consumption [mg/ W ]
Wafer: Materials –poly-Silicon
| ITRPV 2025 | Dr. Markus Fischer | PV CellTech, Frankfurt/Main, March 11 2025 Page 11 |
Trend mono-wafer: poly-Si consumption
Poly-Si consumption will be reduced further (by reducing: thickness, Kerf loss, process optimizations)
TopCon Trend M6 will disappear…
G12: 22.0 g/wf 2.04 g/W 1.41 g/W
G12R 16.7 g/wf 1.77 g/W 1.32 g/W format differences will minimize
M10: 15,7 g/wf 1.91 g/W 1.37 g/W
Future development has to be watched carefully
Trend poly-Si consumption: g/ W TOPCon
M/G 12
ITRPV 2025
ITRPV 2025
ITRPV
Wafer: Processes –wafer “thickness”
| ITRPV 2025 | Dr. Markus Fischer | PV CellTech, Frankfurt/Main, March 11 2025 Page 12 |
Trend wafer thickness: p-type mono-Si
p-mono thickness reduction comes to a limit Trend wafer thickness: n-type mono
n-type is leading in thickness reduction
•PERC 2025: 145 µm is avg. for M10/ G12 n-type is leading the size reduction
wafer thickness come to an end at min 130µm TopCon 2035: ≈ 120 …110 µm
•TopCon 2025: 130 µm is standard for M10/ G12 SHJ 2035: thinnest ≈ 95 µm
automation handling / carriers have to cope with thin wafer bending
Wafer thickness [µm]
ITRPV 2025
ITRPV 2025
ITRPV | ITRPV 2025 | Dr. Markus Fischer | PV CellTech, Frankfurt/Main, March 11 2025 Page 13 |
Outline
1. ITRPV –Status and PV learning Curve
2. ITRPV –Results 2024
- Crystallization & Wafering - Materials, Processes, Products
- Cell - Products, Materials, Processes,
Products
- Module - Materials, Processes, Products
- System cost and LCoE
3. Outlook and Summary
ITRPV
World market share [%]
Cell: Products –Market share of c-Si PV cell technologies
| ITRPV 2025 | Dr. Markus Fischer | PV CellTech, Frankfurt/Main, March 11 2025 Page 14 |
Trend: share of cell technologies
•TOPCon on n- type
68% share in 2025
•PERC on p-type
18% in 2025 phase out ongoing
•Si- heterojunction (SHJ)
8% in 2024 ≈12% in 2035
•Back contact concepts (SHJ/TOPCON based)
6 % in 2025 33% in 2035
•Si-Tandem expected after 2026
3 % in 2029 12% in 2035
TOPCon replaced PERC as c-Si workhorse (ITRPV data are close to SPGI data)
TOPCon dominance until 2032 expected
Tandem after 2026
- PERC / TopCon / HJT are Bifa ready for IBC / TDM Bifa possible…
PERC
TOPCon SHJ
Tandem
ITRPV 2025
ITRPV
Cell: Products –bifacial products
| ITRPV 2025 | Dr. Markus Fischer | PV CellTech, Frankfurt/Main, March 11 2025 Page 15 |
Trend: Bifacial cells
bifacial cells will be in “dual” use
Trend: Bifacial modules
today: close to 100%
Bifacial cells
monofacial cells
Bifacial modules
monofacial modules
World market share [%]
ITRPV 2025
Bifacial cells are standard today
are used in mono- and bifacial modules
Bifaciality of cell concepts today:
SHJ leads (87)..TOPCon (80)..PERC (70) …IBC (70).
World market share [%]
ITRPV
Cell: Process –recombination losses
| ITRPV 2025 | Dr. Markus Fischer | PV CellTech, Frankfurt/Main, March 11 2025 Page 16 |
Trend: J0 p-type materials
improvement requirements were well met Trend: J0 n-type materials
n-type has much lower J0
2025 2035
J0 bulk: p-mono 42 fA/cm² 21 fA/cm²
n-mono 11.5 fA/cm² 7.5 fA/cm²
n-type will stay out of reach for p-type
J0 front close to mono bulk values
Recombination current density [fA/cm²]
Recombination current density [fA/cm²]
ITRPV
Cell: Process –emitter doping
| ITRPV 2025 | Dr. Markus Fischer | PV CellTech, Frankfurt/Main, March 11 2025 Page 17 |
Trend: emitter sheet resistance will increase
B-doping Trend: doping processes / contacting
98% LECO in 2025
2025 2035
B-doping: homogenous: 157Ω/□185Ω/□
selective: 167Ω/□200Ω/□
LECO has been standardsince 2024
homogenous doping now mainstream
BCl3 thermal doping is now standard
homogenous doping
Selctive doping
World market share [%]
ITRPV
World market share [%]
World market share [%]
Cell: Process –wet chemical processing
| ITRPV 2025 | Dr. Markus Fischer | PV CellTech, Frankfurt/Main, March 11 2025 Page 18 |
Trend: process for chemical edge isolation
HF/HNO3 phase out until 2028 continues Trend: wet cleaning in TopCon / PERC
Ozone cleaning is dominating
SHJ also uses RCA cleaning
HNO3 / H2O2 substitution reduces chemistry cost
HF/HNO3
In-line HF +batch KOH
H2O2 based cleaning
Ozone based cleaning
ITRPV
Trend: AlOx deposition PERC/TOPCon*
Cell: Process –p-/n- doped interface passivation (non HJT)
| ITRPV 2025 | Dr. Markus Fischer | PV CellTech, Frankfurt/Main, March 11 2025 Page 19 |
•AlOx depo for PERC rear and TOPCON front
Batch ALD is dominating
PECVD (AlOx/SiN) still in the market for PERC
remote Plasma still in operation, phase out till 2025
Trend: TOPCon rear side
•poly Si trend: thickness reduction 100nm 70nm
•TOPCON - rear side processing technologies
a:Si depo: LPCVD vs. PECVD open again
ex-Situ doping for LPCVD
* Trend is based on cell manufacturers input
World market share [%]
ALD
Indirect PECVD + cap nitride
LPCVD a:Si
PECVD a:Si
ITRPV
Trend: process throughput for new cell tools
Cell: Process –cell production tool throughput in frontend
| ITRPV 2025 | Dr. Markus Fischer | PV CellTech, Frankfurt/Main, March 11 2025 Page 20 |
•Batch wet processing will stay throughput leader: 12,000 17,000 wf/h
•ALD is throughput booster for thermal processes: 12,000 18,000 wf/h
•B-diffusion has still been the bottom of the league
ITRPV 2025
Thgroughput wf/h
ITRPV 2025
Thgroughput wf/h
ITRPV | ITRPV 2025 | Dr. Markus Fischer | PV CellTech, Frankfurt/Main, March 11 2025 Page 21 |
Cell: Process –metallization trends
Impressive Silver reduction occurred and reduction will be continued
PERC ≈70/TopCon ≈111/HJT/IBC 140mg Ag (M10 format /2024) Avg:≈ 9/13.5 /16.7mg/W (35:56:9) ≈12.26t/GW
703GW = 8,616.7 t ≈27.6 % of world annual Ag consumption 2024 ***
n-type concepts require more Ag
•https://www.goldpreis.de/silberpreis/; Assumption ≈ 31,222 t / 1,004 MOz 2024 supply ***
** DKEM presentation at 11th Solar Cell Paste and Metallization Forum, March 6 2025; *** world silver survey 2024, April 2024: https://www.silverinstitute.org/all-world-silver-
surveys
Trend: remaining Silver (M10 cell front + rear) Trend: remaining Silver mg/W t/GW (avg.)
Feb 2025: 1044.9 US$/kg*
≈1.27 $cent/ W cell !!!
TIER1** mg/W: -HJT: 8 …14 w/Ag coated Cu - TOPCon: 8 ..10
Tier 1 cell manufacturer on track ahead of ITRPV min. requirements
remaining Silver per cell (front + rear) [mg]
Silver per cell [mg/Watt] (avg. M10/G12)
ITRPV 2025
ITRPV 2025
ITRPV | ITRPV 2025 | Dr. Markus Fischer | PV CellTech, Frankfurt/Main, March 11 2025
Cell: Process –metallization trends how to meet reduction targets
Trend: Ag consumption @ 1.5 TW in 2034: Trend: metallization material for SHJ
copper is expected to be used
Page 22 |
peak consumption for photography: 38% in 1983/87
Assumption are for PERC/ToPCon/SHJ w/ ITRPV values
Main measures to optimize usage of Ag: continued optimization of TopCon metallization
-SHJ / XBC are expected to use Cu
-Tandem will need less Ag / W due to highest cell power
low temp metallization's will use Cu materials 2035 market share XBC/TDM: 33%/12%
}
}
World market share [%]
ITRPV 2025
30%
ITRPV
ITRPV 2025
World market share [%]
| ITRPV 2025 | Dr. Markus Fischer | PV CellTech, Frankfurt/Main, March 11 2025
Cell: Process –metallization trends how to meet reduction targets
Main measures:
reduction of finger width 2035: 12 µm may be reached even faster
- Ultra Fine Line Screen Print is discussed: possible width ≈ 7µm
increase numbers of busbars: up to 18 BBs are standard today
Bbless layouts will gain market share
Trend: finger width Trend: number of bus bars
Page 23 |
≤ 12 BB
Finger width/alignment precision [µm]
ITRPV 2025
ITRPV
Trend: process throughput for new M10 tools
Cell: Process –cell production tool throughput in backend / laser
| ITRPV 2025 | Dr. Markus Fischer | PV CellTech, Frankfurt/Main, March 11 2025 Page
frontside: dual print will stay mainstream
rearside: plating will slowly be introduced
•7,500 wf/h are standard today for dual lane printers up to 13,000 seem possible
cell test is still linked to the metallization lines
•Laser will also reach >11,000 wf/h as well
single print
dual print
ITRPV 2025
ITRPV
Cell: Product –cell efficiencies in mass production
| ITRPV 2025 | Dr. Markus Fischer | PV CellTech, Frankfurt/Main, March 11 2025 Page 25 |
Trend: leading cell efficiencies in production
n-type leads in efficiency with SHJ and IBC
2025 2027 2035
p-mono PERC: 23.5% 23.8% 24.0%
n-mono TOPCon: 25.5% 26.0% 26.5%
SHJ: 25.7% 25.9% 26.6%
IBC: 25.9% 26.2% 27.3%
Tandem: 26.8% 27.3% 32.0%
still expected in mass production after 2025
Single junction cell efficiencies in production are approaching the practical limit
Stabilized cell efficiency [%]
ITRPV 2025
ITRPV | ITRPV 2025 | Dr. Markus Fischer | PV CellTech, Frankfurt/Main, March 11 2025 Page 26 |
Outline
1. ITRPV –Status and PV learning Curve
2. ITRPV –Results 2024
- Crystallization & Wafering - Materials, Processes, Products
- Cell - Products, Materials, Processes
- Module - Materials, Processes, Products
- System cost and LCoE
3. Outlook and Summary
ITRPV
Trend: cell interconnect / soldering
| ITRPV 2025 | Dr. Markus Fischer | PV CellTech, Frankfurt/Main, March 11 2025 Page 27 |
Module: Materials –cell interconnect material / module back cover
Trend: cell thickness in module technology
no cell thickness limitation
Cu remains key base for cell and module interconnect
Cu wires are mainstream, Ø 260 µm 200 µm
Cell interconnection w/ lead containing solders is dominating
- ECA is gaining share –lead free depends on regulation
Cu wires
Cu ribbons
Lead containing solder
ECA
G2F
World market share [%]
Cell thickness [µm]
Wire diameter [mm]
ITRPV
World market share [%]
Trend: Framed modules will stay dominating
| ITRPV 2025 | Dr. Markus Fischer | PV CellTech, Frankfurt/Main, March 11 2025 Page 28 |
Module: frames / module back cover
Trend: G2G will dominate in module technology
Aluminum will stay mainstream frame material
steel and others are gaining market share
Framless <6%
World market share [%]
G2F
Aluminum G2G
Flex (foil/foil)
ITRPV
World market share [%]
| ITRPV 2025 | Dr. Markus Fischer | PV CellTech, Frankfurt/Main, March 11 2025 Page 29 |
Module: Product –module technology
Trend: cell aspect ratios(for > M10)
Half cell is dominating
>M10 cell will be used w/ half, third, and quarter cut format
edge passivation of cut edges is expected to be rolled out
1/3 cell
half cell
Trend: edge passivation of cut cells
edge passivation will become standard
Edge passivation
w/ ALD or PECVD
World market share [%]
ITRPV | ITRPV 2025 | Dr. Markus Fischer | PV CellTech, Frankfurt/Main, March 11 2025 Page 30 |
Module: Product –module technology
Trend: World market share end-use systems
Roof top stable at 30%
Agro PV Systems will become interesting w/ 10% share in 2035
Agro PV, BIPV, floating …
roof-top systems
Power plants
ITRPV
Trend: module efficiency is the best characterization for different module types
| ITRPV 2025 | Dr. Markus Fischer | PV CellTech, Frankfurt/Main, March 11 2025 Page 31 |
Module: Product –module efficiency in mass production
Efficiency improvements will continue in all technologies
n-type enables highest module efficiencies single junction concepts will saturate
Tandem is expected to enable >26% after 2026
Module efficiency: 2025 2027 2035
Tandem -26.9 % 30.5%
n- IBC 23.8% 24.5% 26.0%
n- SHJ: 23.6% 24.5% 25.0%
n- Topcon: 23.2% 23.9% 24.7%
p- PERC: 21.7% 21.8% 22.0%
Module efficiency [%]
ITRPV
For all applications: module size AND weight are increasing;
(practical) Limits for roof top: 50 lbs / 24kg (US) / 2 m² (old limit in GER)
Module: Product –Module size
| ITRPV 2025 | Dr. Markus Fischer | PV CellTech, Frankfurt/Main, March 11 2025 Page 32 |
Trend: module size for power plant
<2m² disappeared,
>3m² will gain share
Trend: module size for residential
Size is increasing due to new cell formats…
1.8…2.0 m²
<1.8m²
>3m²
<2.5m²
2.5…3 m²
LCOE will profit from larger module size for PP applications,
….BUT…. heavy, large modules have to be mounted cost efficiently
World market share [%]
World market share [%]
< 20 kg
25kg …30kg
< 25kg
30kg .. 40kg
ITRPV | ITRPV 2025 | Dr. Markus Fischer | PV CellTech, Frankfurt/Main, March 11 2025 Page 33 |
Module: Product –product warranty / module degradation
Trend: warranty / degradation 2025 2027 2035
-performance warranty: 25y 30y 35y
-product warranty: 15y 15y 20y
- 1st year degradation: 1.8% 1.0% 1.0%
- annual degradation: 0.45% 0.4% 0.38%
Waranty [years]
World market share [%]
ITRPV | ITRPV 2025 | Dr. Markus Fischer | PV CellTech, Frankfurt/Main, March 11 2025 Page 34 |
Outline
1. ITRPV –Status and PV learning Curve
2. ITRPV –Results 2024
- Crystallization & Wafering - Materials, Processes, Products
- Cell - Products, Materials, Processes
- Module - Materials, Processes, Products
- System cost and LCoE
3. Outlook and Summary
ITRPV | ITRPV 2025 | Dr. Markus Fischer | PV CellTech, Frankfurt/Main, March 11 2025 Page 35 |
System - Components
Trend: System degradation
System degradation 2025 2027 2034
Module 1st year degradation 1.0% 1.0% 1.0%
Module avg. annual degradation 0.5% 0.5% 0.38%
System avg. annual degradation 0.6% 0.5%0.5%
Trend: technical Lifetimes in Systems
Technical lifetime of components and systems will increase
2025 2035
Modules: 30 y 40 y modules are leading!
Inverters: 15 y 15 y flat
Degradation rate [%]
technical life time [years]
ITRPV | ITRPV 2025 | Dr. Markus Fischer | PV CellTech, Frankfurt/Main, March 11 2025 Page 36 |
System –LCoE calculation 2025
* https://www.iea.org/reports/projected-costs-of-generating-electricity-2015 (Table 9.6)
** https://www.cleanenergywire.org/news/first-german-solar-pv-tender-2025-more-twice-oversubscribed
*** https://taiyangnews.info/markets/japan-concludes-20th-solar-pv-energy-auction-allocating-93-mw
**** https://about.bnef.com/blog/global-cost-of-renewables-to-continue-falling-in-2025-as-china-extends-manufacturing-lead-bloombergnef/
Avg. auction prices:
4.90 $ct/kWh: average bid in Germany 1st 2025 utility tender **
3.72 $ct/kWh: IEA 2023 world wide avg. auction prices*
3.60 $ct/kWh BloombergNEF global Benchmark LCOE 2024****
2.90 $ct/kWh: lowest bid in 20th Japan‘s solar auction 08/2024***
Michael Woodhouse (ITRPV steering committee US):
„The worst-case LCOE calculated in the 2025 ITRPV
is 40% lower than IEA 2015 projections for 2030 *.
….It really does look like solar PV has overdelivered!”
ITRPV | ITRPV 2025 | Dr. Markus Fischer | PV CellTech, Frankfurt/Main, March 11 2025 Page 37 |
Outline
1. ITRPV –Status and PV learning Curve
2. ITRPV –Results 2024
- Crystallization & Wafering - Materials, Processes, Products
- Cell - Materials, Processes, Products
- Module - Materials, Processes, Products
- System cost and LCoE
3. Outlook and Summary
ITRPV
Outlook –future learning will continue
ITRPV shows:
•Future possibilities for c-Si PV cost reduction
ITRPV conclusion:
•Product performance improvements have to be
implemented without huge cost increases
•continues cost reduction per piece
+ continues efficiency increases
= cost reduction of PV generated electricity
This ensures the continuation of price learning curve
| ITRPV 2025 | Dr. Markus Fischer | PV CellTech, Frankfurt/Main, March 11 2025 Page 38 |
PV based power generation is an attractive business
Continues improvements enable profitability for manufacturers and customers
ITRPV
Outlook: a look at PV today and in future
| ITRPV 2025 | Dr. Markus Fischer | PV CellTech, Frankfurt/Main, March 11 2025 Page 39 |
ITRPV finding:
learning rate 2006 –2024: 40.7%
Learning curve:
2010-2024 Wp and per piece updated:
efficiency learning rate: ~ 8.0% (last year 8%)
per piece learning rate: ~ 12.0% (last year 13.5%)
efficiency learning has been constant
per piece learning slowed down
Conclusion:
Learning is always a combination of
efficiency increase +
continued cost reduction per piece
= cost reduction of PV generated electricity
Wp increase w/o cost increases will remain challenging
PV overcapa / oversupply situation is a vast challenge
PV industry has to handle this challenge:
ITRPV 2025
ITRPV
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
020 40 60 80 100 120 140
plant hight [cm]
days after seeding
growth of a Tomato (Tombolino)
Tombolino
| ITRPV 2025 | Dr. Markus Fischer | PV CellTech, Frankfurt/Main, March 11 2025
* data April –August 2016
shooting
singulation
start fertilizing
being in flower
developing fruits
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
020 40 60 80 100 120 140
plant hight [cm]
days after seeding
growth of a Tomato (Tombolino)
Aproximation
Parameter set:
G =
1.12 m
k =
0.07;
c =
67d
𝑵 𝒕 = 𝑮
𝟏 + 𝒆𝒌(𝒄−𝒕)
Page 40 |
Outlook: update on Tomato based PV growth experiments
I continued logistic growth studies:
2024: was an average year for Tomatos
old, new, and outsourced (market garden) improved delicious recipe: “original-like Sugo”
learning: diversification yields best…outsourced plants ensured early harvest …
PV is here today
ITRPV
PV today and in future
| ITRPV 2025 | Dr. Markus Fischer | PV CellTech, Frankfurt/Main, March 11 2025 Page 41 |
Most realistic 2050 scenario for PV considered since 10th edition: Breyer (“Broad electrification”)
PV for electricity and primary energy: 63 TWp/ 104PWh (69% global energy)
market peak: 4,500+ GW/ 2050
ITRPV finding: PV learning continues!
-TW market is ahead, and will be served based on todays PV technologies
- Further effort is required to meet Y TWp market requirements!
Efficient use of ALL materials and efficiency learning will remain key
ITRPV will provide also in future guidance to handle todays and future challenges
IEA World Energy Outlook 2024*(very pessimistic):
NZE Scenario: PV takes 28% share of total supply
Market: + 957 GW/a 2030
+ 1140 GW/a 2035
+ 620 GW/a 2050
Installation: IEA Breyer installed
2025 2.2 TWp 3.5 TWp 2.2 TWp
2030 6.5 TWp 10.2 TWp
2050: 20.1 TWp 63.4 TWp
29 PWh 104 PWh
703 GW shipped in 2024
supports the required PV growth
* IEA WEO 2024, pg. 305
ITRPV
Thank you
Thank you
for your attention!
to all contributors!
Page 42 || ITRPV 2025 | Dr. Markus Fischer | PV CellTech, Frankfurt/Main, March 11 2025
Visit us at: itrpv.vdma.org
