Metals Focus Launch of Gold Focus 2025 PDF Free Download
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Metals Focus
Launch of Gold Focus 2025
Nikos Kavalis
Singapore, Asia Pacific Precious Metals Conference
17th June 2025
A reminder of 2024, a record high annual average
Source: Metals Focus, Bloomberg
▪2024 a record high for the full-year average, for the first time
over $2,000
▪$446 rise for the 12-month average surpassed that of price
gains for both the GFC and COVID
▪Despite DXY remaining elevated last year
▪Testament to the health of investment and physical demand.
Gold & DXY – inverse relationship has increasingly broken down
Total demand, in tonnage and value terms
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
1201,200
1,600
2,000
2,400
2,800
3,200
3,600
Jan-22 Jul-22 Jan-23 Jul-23 Jan-24 Jul-24 Jan-25
DXY
US$/oz
Gold price, $/oz (LHS) Dollar Index (inverted)
-
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024
US$bn
Tonnes
Volume Value
ETP inflows and CME positioning increasingly positive in 2024
Source: World Gold Council, Bloomberg
▪56% y/y rise to end-2024
▪Sept-2024 net long of 681t, the highest since Jan-2020
▪Full year average net managed money long highest since 2016
Net managed money positions turned decisively positive
ETPs: growing participation on the demand side
-80
-40
0
40
80
120
Jan-24 Apr-24 Jul-24 Oct-24 Jan-25 Apr-25
Tonnes Europe North America Asia Other
1,500
1,900
2,300
2,700
3,100
3,500
-4
0
4
8
12
16
20
24
Jan-23 Jul-23 Jan-24 Jul-24 Jan-25
US$/oz
Moz
Net Long Gold Price (RHS)
▪ETPs saw a net outflow in 2024 of 7t
▪But this hides a marked intra-year variation
▪First four months saw sizeable net outflows, in contrast to large
Q3 inflows
Supply breaks over 5,000t and jewellery weighs on demand
Source: Metals Focus
▪The first time global supply has exceeded 5,000t
▪Reflects a new high for mine supply
▪Recycling up 11% to its highest since 2012
Global supply up 2% last year to a new high
Global demand eases 2%, but just to a three-year low
4,943
5,029
133 21
69
4,850
4,900
4,950
5,000
5,050
5,100
5,150
2023 Scrap Mine Production Hedging 2024
Tonnes
4,769
4,669
55
35
21 16
195
4,550
4,600
4,650
4,700
4,750
4,800
4,850
4,900
2023 Hedging Official
Sector
Industrial Physical
Investment
Jewellery 2024
Tonnes
▪Despite the 23% price rise, global demand slips by just 2%
▪Official sector net buying exceeds 1,000t for the third year
▪A modest gain for physical investment sees it remain close to
2022-23 levels.
▪Excluding COVID, the largest decline for jewellery since 2016
Source: Bloomberg, IMF
▪End-2024, US$ accounted for 58% of global FX reserves,
against ~72% in 2001
▪A remarkable decline in Chinese US Treasury holdings, from
a peak of $1.3tn in 2013 to below $770bn at present.
▪Third year of +1,000t of net official sector demand
▪Key declared buyers include: Poland (90t), Turkey (76t),
India (73t), Azerbaijan (45t), and China (44t)
▪Although gross purchases eased back, gross sales
“normalised” in 2024
Global FX reserves – de-dollarisation remains entrenched
UK holdings of US Treasuries eclipse those of China
Official sector remains the stand-out performer
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024
%US$ Euro RMB Yen GBP Others
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
2001 2005 2009 2013 2017 2021 2025
US$, billion Japan China UK
-500
-250
0
250
500
750
1,000
1,250
1,500
2015 2017 2019 2021 2023
Tonnes
Gross Sales Gross Purchases
Net Purchases
Net purchases of 1,086t last year
Source: Metals Focus; *covers: Asia, CIS, South America, Africa
▪An east/west split has emerged
▪Germany and the US hit by high levels of secondary market
activity
▪By contrast, last year Chinese and Indian buying jumped, by
20% and 29%
A collapse in newly minted gold bullion coin sales
However, physical investment has been mixed
Global bar and coin demand far more stable
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Q1-17 Q1-18 Q1-19 Q1-20 Q1-21 Q1-22 Q1-23 Q1-24 Q1-25
Tonnes N. America Europe Other
0
250
500
750
1,000
2016 2018 2020 2022 2024
Tonnes Western markets Other*
Source: Metals Focus, Bloomberg
▪Excluding COVID, 2024 the first time global jewellery
consumption has fallen below 2,000t at least since 2010
▪Chinese demand down 24%, while India only 2% lower, due to
the duty cut and store expansions
▪Western demand less affected; US down 3%, Europe 4% lower
Consumers still committing more of their spend to jewellery
While jewellery consumption has understandably taken a hit
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
0
200
400
600
800
Q1-19 Q1-20 Q1-21 Q1-22 Q1-23 Q1-24 Q1-25
US$bn
Tonnes China India
Other Value
Reaction to potential tariffs
Source: Bloomberg, S&P Global
▪The EFP first jumped in December and remained elevated well
into Q1.25
▪The threat of US tariffs led to a surge in metal being delivered
into CME vaults, much of which was delivered from overseas
▪Now starting to see metal come out, 25t in March and 62t in
April to Switzerland alone.
▪Surge in gold lease rates, overnight reaching an unprecedented
12%
CME gold (and silver/platinum) stocks eclipse COVID-jump
Selected US gold bullion imports
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Oct 2024 Nov 2024 Dec 2024 Jan 2025 Feb 2025 Mar 2025
Tonnes
Canada Switzerland Australia South Africa Hong Kong
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,000
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
Jan-19 Jan-20 Jan-21 Jan-22 Jan-23 Jan-24 Jan-25
Tonnes
Tonnes Gold (LHS) Silver (RHS)
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
Jan-22 Jul-22 Jan-23 Jul-23 Jan-24 Jul-24 Jan-25
% 1M 3M
Massive jump in funding costs
Record prices boost supply and hurt demand again in 2025
Source: Metals Focus
▪Another record total for total gold supply
▪Once gain, due to a new peak for mine production
▪Recycling forecast to be unchanged, despite far higher prices
Global supply rising 1% to a new record high
5,029
5,087
33
25
0
5,000
5,020
5,040
5,060
5,080
5,100
2024 Mine
Production
Hedging Scrap 2025
Tonnes
4,669
4,246
27
6
55
86
315
4,000
4,100
4,200
4,300
4,400
4,500
4,600
4,700
4,800
2024 Physical
Investment
Industrial Hedging Official
Sector
Jewellery 2025
Tonnes
While total demand drops by 9%
▪Most significant is the 16% drop for jewellery fabrication to its
lowest, excluding COVID, at least since 2010
▪Although the chart shows an 86t drop for the official sector, the
key message is that net demand remains historically high
Investors remain positive towards gold
Source: US Congressional Budget Office, Bloomberg
▪“Big Beautiful” bill sees investors concerned about servicing US
debt
US Federal Debt held by the Public, % of GDP
Probability of US entering a recession over the next 12 months
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Jan-20 Jan-21 Jan-22 Jan-23 Jan-24 Jan-25
%
▪While the unpredictable nature of the US administration,
especially concerning tariffs, raises the prospect of a recession
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
1900 1925 1950 1975 2000 2025 2050
$bn%
US Federal debt, % of GDP US Interest payments
Investors remain positive towards gold
Source: Bloomberg
▪For the time being, US inflation measures are trending lower, but
the tariff effect is yet to feed through
US inflation & interest rates
Expectations for US interest rate by end-2025
▪Overall though, Fed and market expectations broadly aligned for
rates to gradually ease later this year
▪Looking further ahead, one signpost is the end to Powell’s term
next May, how this impacts perceptions of the Fed’s
independence and in turn the dollar
0
2
4
6
8
10
0
2
4
6
8
10
Jan-18 Jan-19 Jan-20 Jan-21 Jan-22 Jan-23 Jan-24 Jan-25
%
US CPI
US PCE Core
US Interest Rate
3.0
3.4
3.8
4.2
4.6
Jan-25 Feb-25 Mar-25 Apr-25 May-25 Jun-25
%
FOMC Projection - Central Tendency
Market Expectations for US Rate by end-2025
Gold price outlook
Source: Metals Focus. Bloomberg
▪Ongoing geo-political uncertainty
▪Concern about sustainability US debt
▪Unpredictable US trade/foreign policies
▪Further downward pressure on the US$
▪Likelihood of a US recession
▪Portfolio diversification, given equities’ performance
Setting new highs later this year
1,800
2,200
2,600
3,000
3,400
3,800
Jan-24 Jul-24 Jan-25 Jul-25 Jan-26
US$/oz Spot/Average High Low
The Metals Focus Team
Philip Newman, Managing Director
Charles de Meester, Managing Director
Neil Meader, Interim Director of Gold and Silver
Junlu Liang, Senior Analyst
Simon Yau, Consultant – Hong Kong
Peter Ryan, Independent Consultant
Elvis Chou, Consultant – Taiwan
Michael Bedford, Consultant
David Gornall, Consultant
Jacob Smith, Senior PGM Analyst
Neelan Patel, Regional Sales Director
Mirian Moreno, Business Manager
Erin Coyle, Sales & Marketing Executive
Ghananshu Karekar, Research Associate - Mumbai
Amber Nelson, Mine Supply Analyst
Nilesh Pise, Research Associate - Mumbai
Nikos Kavalis, Managing Director – Singapore
Sarah Tomlinson, Director of Mine Supply
Wilma Swarts, Director of PGMs
Matthew Piggott, Director of Gold and Silver
Philip Klapwijk, Chief Consultant
Chirag Sheth, Principal Consultant – Mumbai
Yiyi Gao, Senior Analyst – Shanghai
Çagdas Küçükemiroglu, Consultant – Istanbul
Dale Munro, Consultant
Harshal Barot, Senior Consultant – Mumbai
Adarsh Diwe, Research Consultant – Mumbai
Celine Zarate, Consultant – Manila
Jie Gao, Research Analyst – Shanghai
Ross Embleton, Mine Supply Analyst
Donnadee Francisco, Mine Supply Analyst – Manila
Ruby Tagoon, Junior Mine Supply Analyst – Manila
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