Truckload Market Overview PDF Free Download
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Truckload Market
Overview
May 2025
Dean Croke, Principal Analyst
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Dia l-A-Truck
First Load Board
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•Demand Indicator: brokers & carriers benefiting from tariff-related volume surge -up 9% y/y and 10% vs long-term average
for Week 18. Shippers are urgently seeking bonded storage, free trade zones, and overflow warehouse space to avoid
tariffs.
•Dry van loads moved in April were 6% higher than the busiest week during the pandemic -Nov 12, 2021
•Spot Rates: produce seasonality starting to lift spot rates off the bottom of the April trough.
•Flatbed spot rates are strong as seasonality demand drives higher volumes during of building, planting, construction
and nursery seasons. Spot rates up 8% y/y, but forecast to peak 6/2 at +$0.17c higher y/y
•Contract Rates: treading water. Dry van new rates (NRD) entering routing guides up slightly. Reefer/Flatbed still negative.
•Spot Market Capacity: grew in April -highest number of for-hire authorities in two years. Market favors IC’s
•Small Fleet/Owner-Operator Profitability: Falling falling diesel prices not enough to offset decreasing spot rates. Carrier
gross profit margin drops from -$0.04/mile in April to -$0.07/mile below breakeven, same as last April.
•Produce Season: down 8% y/y or 2,000 fewer truckloads after a late start to the season. California down 27% y/y (11,264
few TL YTD) after a cooler March/April. Reefer truck availability (2) the lowest since May 2019 during the freight recession.
State of the Market Summary
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Broker Trends
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Broker Authorities
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●Total active broker authorities down
10% y/y and 1% m/m in April.
●At 23,956, broker authorities are
still 14% higher than April 2020,
right as the pandemic started.
●Net loss of 153 broker authorities in
April.
●26% fewer brokers since the Oct ‘22
peak.
●New broker authorities in April were
37% lower than last year.
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Truckload Capacity
Trends
6
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Large Fleet Capacity -Quarterly Changes
7
●Large fleet truck counts end Q125
down 1% q/q and 5% y/y
●Down 20% from the mid-2022
peak reading of 93.
●Large fleets have been decreasing
fleet size for 12 quarters
○Slashed counts for 9 quarters
○Trimmed over the last 3
●The slowing rate of declines
suggests large carriers are still
uncertain about future demand.
●New Class 8 truck orders in April
down 52% y/y. ACT Research
carrier profitability fell to levels not
seen since Q1 2010.
TCI measures truck capacity at large, publicly traded trucking companies on a quarterly basis using end-of-quarter truck counts reported
within their earnings statements. Indexed to 100 during the 4th quarter in 2006.
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Interstate Truckload Capacity -Monthly Changes
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●Small fleet capacity turns positive for the
second month in April as the most new
carriers enter the market in 2 years.
●New carrier authorities jumped by 48%
m/m and 30% y/y.
●Compared to the pre-pandemic April
average (highlighted), last months new
entrant levels were 49% higher.
●Carrier exits were 26% higher in April
compared to March, the highest in 12
months.
●Net change -+971 carriers.
Note : Th is d a t a a p p lie s to a ll ve h ic le s in v o lve d in in te rs ta te c o m m e r c e o ve r 10 ,0 0 0 lb s GVW.
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Independent Owner-Operator Cost Dynamics
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●Small fleet profitability deteriorated in
April to -$0.07/mile gross profit margin
following January’s boost (+$0.06/mile GP)
in rates from the extreme cold.
●Carrier profit margins are about the same
as April last year.
●Last two years -losing on average
$0.02/mile
●Carrier operating costs averaged
$1.77/mile in April on the back of lower
diesel costs (31% of costs / $0.54/mile):
○down $0.14/mile (4%) in the last month
○$0.39/mile (10%) in the last year.
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Independent Owner-Operator vs Leased-On
10
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Demand Trends
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U.S. Co n ta in e riz e d Im p o rts
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●April 2025 import volumes as measured
by TEU Volume (twenty-foot equivalent
units), were down 0.7% month-over-
month (m/m) but up 14.4% year-over-
year (y/y), and the second-highest ever
recorded for April.
●Many shippers have been front-loading
cargo to avoid peak season surcharges,
potential disruption associated with ILA
strike action, tariffs and Red Sea
diversions.
●Current volume is 24% higher than the
long-term April average or the equivalent
of 188,516 truckloads (2.6 TEU:1 TL ratio)
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U.S. Co n ta in e riz e d Im p o rts Fa ll-Off
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●Container vessels arrivals down 20% in May
●33 container ship “blank sailings” will skip LA
or Long Beach 6 May –20 June.
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Truckload Demand -TTMI
14
●The February Trucking Ton-Mile Index
(TTMI) indicates freight demand
improved by almost 1%, regaining the
loss from the prior month (due to the
extreme cold weather).
●TTMI was flat compared to last year.
●Regarding absolute demand levels,
trucking demand is:
○1.5% higher than Feb 2018
○1.6% higher than Feb 2019
○1.8% higher than Feb 2020.
2018
2019
TTMI is calculated as a weighted geometric mean for 41 freight-generating sectors across food, chemical manufacturing, mining, paper,
aggregates, wholesaling, retailing, and warehousing.
Feb ‘22
Pandemic
Feb ‘18
Feb ‘19
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ISM PMI
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●US ISM Manufacturing PMI dropped
to a 5-month low in April of 48.70.
●The second straight monthly decline
in the PMI ended a brief recovery in
manufacturing.
●The April ISM PMI data on
manufacturing new orders, improved
by 7.7% m/m but down 0.8% y/y.
●Readings of of a PMI > 55 are what
we would consider favorable to
truckload
R-value 0.91
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Produce Season -Week Ending 4/29
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•North American truckload produce volumes
end April 8% lower y/y:
○US (56%) -12% lower y/y
○Canada (6%) -up 4% y/y
○Mexico (37%) -down 4% y/y
•After a late start due to cooler weather,
California is 27% lower y/y:
○11,264 fewer truckloads YTD
•Florida is 15% lower y/y
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Spot Rate Trends
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Spot / Contract Load Mix
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10 Year Average
Equipment Type Contract Spot
Dry Van 86% 14%
Reefer 87% 13%
Flatbed 73% 27%
March 2025
●83% Contract
●17 % S p o t
March 2025
●60 % Contract
●40% Spot
March 2025
●86% Contract
●14 % S p o t
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Rate Trends -Dry Va n
19
●Dry van linehaul rates decreased by almost $0.02/mile
last week to a national average of $1.60/mile on a 1%
lower volume of loads moved. At $1.60/mile, linehaul
rates remained $0.03/mile higher than last year and
almost identical to 2024.
●On DAT's Top 50 lanes, ranked by the volume of loads
moved, carriers were paid an average of $1.89/mile,
down a penny-per-mile and $0.29/mile higher than the
national 7-day rolling average spot rate.
●In our Midwest Region bellwether states (n=13), which
account for 45% of loads moved nationally last week
and have the highest correlation to the national
average, outbound spot rates were down $0.02/mile
on a 1% lower volume of outbound loads moved.
○Carriers were paid an average of $1.72/mile,
$0.12/mile higher than the national 7-day
rolling average.
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Se a s o n a lity Tre n d s -Dry Va n
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Spot Rate Trends -Dry Va n
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S p o t lin e h a ul ra t e s n e g a tiv e y / y fo r 2 7
months
The last spot market cycle ran from June ‘20 to June ‘24 (49 months) -22 months of extreme expansion & 27 months of contraction. Now 8 months +ve
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Rate Trends -Reefer
22
●Available reefer capacity loosened slightly
last week, with the national average
reefer spot rate ending the week at
$1.91/mile, down almost a penny per
mile.
●Reefer spot rates are $0.02/mile lower
than last year and $0.05/mile lower than
2023.
●Peak floral shipments drove up spot rates
in Miami; outbound reefer spot rates
were the highest in three years, up
$0.54/mile to $2.43/mile last week on a
28% higher w/w volume.
●The high-volume lane from Miami to
Atlanta paid carriers an average of
$2.84/mile, up $1.33/mile or 88% in the
last month.
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Se a s o n a lity Tre n d s -Reefer
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Rate Trends -Reefer
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S p o t lin e h a ul ra t e s n e g a tiv e y / y fo r 2 7
months
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Rate Trends -Fla tb e d
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●After being flat the week prior,
flatbed spot rates decreased by just
over a penny per mile last week,
averaging $2.15/mile on a 2% lower
volume of loads moved.
●Compared to last year, the flatbed
7-day rolling average is $0.13/mile
higher, $0.02/mile higher than
2023, but $0.21/mile lower than
the flatbed bull market in 2018.
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Se a s o n a lity Tre n d s -Fla tb e d
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Rate Trends -Fla tb e d
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Two Data Points
to Watch
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Dry Van Contract New Rate Development
Dry Van NRD for May 15:
●Active rates down 0.2% (-0.4%)
●Replacement rates down 0.9%
(+2.2%)
●This means that new contract rates
are almost 1% lower than the rates
being replaced.
●Was in positive territory for almost
a year after decreasing for almost
three years.
●But….are barely above parity for the
last 12 months (average +0.2%)
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Reefer New Rate Development
Reefer NRD for May 15th:
●Active rates down 1.2% (-1.5%)
●Replacement rates down 0.1%
(+0.8%)
●This means that new contract rates
are almost much the same as the
rates being replaced.
●But….are slightly below parity for
the last 12 months (average -1.3%)
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Flatbed New Rate Development
Flatbed NRD for May 15th:
●Active rates down 0.4%
(+2.6%)
●Replacement rates down
3.0% (-6.4%)
●This means that new contract
rates are 3.0% below the
rates being replaced.
●But….are significantly below
parity for the last 12 months
(average -4.8%).
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Intermodal Spot Rates
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Intermodal and Dry Van TL Spot Rates
●Intermodal plays a critical role in identifying the
strength of market changes because it offers
shippers an essential outlet for additional 53’
capacity during periods of tight truckload
supply.
●When intermodal spot rates (5% of volume)
begin to rise meaningfully along with increasing
truckload rates, it’s a strong indicator that
we’re seeing a true market turnaround.
●While there have been minor fluctuations
recently in spot rates, they lack the consistency
and breadth needed to drive a sustained
increase.
●Both have been moving sideways for the past 9
months. Current spread is $0.44/mile vs 12-
month average spread of $0.48/mile
●Since April 2024, intermodal spot rates have
dropped by 5.3%; dry van rates ex FSC are
mostly flat.
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